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***David Wilson Bandwagon*** (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Jeff Pasquino
- Start date
Koya
Footballguy
Honestly, this has been fun and all, but enough is enough. I am not looking to go back and parse words, it's simply not worth it for me - especially in response to a poster whom I only engaged in conversation with in the first place because of arrogant comments that alluded to the fact that anyone who disagrees with their assessment must either not follow the team and/or not be a knowledgeable football fan.
This silly and playful (at least from my end) ### for tat was merely a result of the all too present attitude on these boards of "if you don't see it my way, you must not know your ####." Now, you can agree with me or disagree, but if you want to call me out and in such a way feel better about yourself and/or your fantasy football prowess, that's your prerogative. I'd rather discuss legitimate issues and concerns with respectful posters who are providing knowledge, listening and encouraging a positive and constructive discussion. To that, I apologize for playing this lil game which really has distracted from the question at hand.
Which, of course, has not really changed much either in its question, nor the answer and won't until we see how things play out in the real season.
That said, if it makes you feel better to somehow "put me in my place" go for it. After 15 or so years on these boards I'll be able to handle the hit to my ego.
msudaisy26
Footballguy
I totally agree, I am considering taking him at 1.01 in my draft tonight since I don't think he will be there at 2.14 turn, Peterson has nothing on him
Koya
Footballguy
As a Giants fan, albeit one that doesnt follow the team nor knows what he's talking about, it scares the bejeebuz out of me that Wilson has become the hype train favorite of the FFA this year. Ball cancer can't be far behind.
rizzler
Footballguy
I love Wilson, I wont hide it... but Im just purposely going overboard on him because it makes me laugh at the battles going on here.
He's either the 2nd coming of AP or he should be Ryan Torain's backup.
I've stated my honest opinion on him and Im leaving it at that. He's top10 material, without a doubt.
Koya
Footballguy
And from my perspective he has top 10 potential, but I think there is too much yet to be defined regarding his role this year and I'd think next year he will be primed to jump from #2 RB with upside (and some downside) to a #1 potential stud (at which point I suppose you could call him 'the man' - but goodness, don't quote me on that!)
LawFitz
Footballguy
Or he starts the year as you see him now and finishes this year as you see him next. Most of us play in playoff format leagues and I suspect Wilson will turn into the stud he's being made out to be here by the time the stretch run comes around. Barring injury, of course.
Koya
Footballguy
Certainly possible, and I hope so. I'm just tempering my expectations. Plus, if you play in a 4 playoff team, 12 person league, you can't wait for end of the year upside, you need it from day one.
BustedKnuckles
Footballguy
With his first pick in rd 1 Eminence selects David Wilson RB ny giants
Koya
Footballguy
I'll give a stab, a little bit of devil's advocate and a bit of what I truly believe.
15-20 Will likely be the goal. But we see how games work themselves out. You will have a couple where, for whatever reason (score, fewer offensive plays, a few really big long passes what have you) the number is lower. You've already had the coach say he could go with the "hot hand" and while Wilson's stock has risen somewhat over the past month, years of watching Coughlin would tell you this could happen.
Injury can't be overlooked. It doesnt have to be season ending - he can get dinged, only get 5 carries in a game, then maybe the next few games he is limited. These are realities in a football season, especially for someone that has not proven themselves over the course of a season.
I can tell you what my biggest concern is FANTASY wise - he will see 15-20 touches, but if they don't include some good 3rd down passes (good chance at breaking a long one, helps in PPR) and especially GL's, that pushes from elite down to #2, and then a ding here or there, or god forbid a fumble (he's hardly entrenched as a vet starter) and you have a five game period where the production drops and now he is a middling or low end #2, or flex player when looking at it season wide.
Hope that gives some insight over some of the concerns - just about every back has them. Few have the upside Wilson has, but again, proof is in the pudding and dessert has not yet been served.
Khy
Footballguy
Honestly, in all these threads I read on these forums. From Kenny Britt to Danny Amendola to Darren McFadden people use the "he's no more likely to get injured than anyone else in the league". And they all have injury histories longer than most federal convicts wrap sheets. And then somehow David Wilson with no remotely serious injury history "can't be ignored". Just like the same argument people keep bringing up on Tavon Austin? Zero injury history means exactly that, you can ignore it. Their injury risk should pose literally ZERO judgment on your projections of them until proven otherwise.
Touchdown There
Footballguy
Andre Brown owner kneecaps him?
rizzler
Footballguy
If Wilson can stay healthy, he's going to have a monster year. It's possible he may not see more than 15 carries, but so what? He reminds me of Jamaal Charles and a few years ago, he didn't need many carries to be a monster. His YPA was around 6.0. Actuallly, the whole situation reminds me of the Charles/Thomas Jones argument a few years ago. Sure Brown will steal some goal line carries and third downs. But so what? He's a marginal talent at best. Heck, even Bradshaw saw some goal line carries even though he had Brandon Jacobs behind him.
Bottom line is, Wilson is a home run hitter in the mold of Charles and Johnson. I think we are looking at a 1200/8 season and that is the floor.
Bottom line is, Wilson is a home run hitter in the mold of Charles and Johnson. I think we are looking at a 1200/8 season and that is the floor.
Koya
Footballguy
I must say, this is one of the most weird threads I can recall on here... I just can't quit it. It's as if people are only ready 80% of the words on a post and then going ballistic in one direction or another.
Where did I say that Wilson is more likely than anyone else to be injured? I've never once suggested him to be a specific injury risk (though I fear even typing that as a Giants fan, don't want to tempt the Football gods). Someone asked what could possiblly impede Wilson getting 15-20 touches. Injury would certainly do that. Now, while he is no more likely than your average player regarding injury, Wilson has also not proven he can sustain a 16 game schedule, especially with a consistent 15+ (and certainly 20) touch workload. So, it's a factor that, when we are projecting, we have to think about. He is no more, but also no less likely than the "average" player regarding injury. Which means, of course there is SOME risk.
LawFitz
Footballguy
There are arguments that go both ways here. For example, you are less likely to face the better (i.e. playoff) teams in the regular season than you are once in the playoffs, so there is some margin for development into a stud role as the season goes on.
Khy
Footballguy
You just happened to be the like 200th post mentioning injury and Wilson together. Which again I don't feel is something you even take into account. Again, Kenny Britt, Andre Brown, McFadden, MJD, hell even Foster are guys you could take that into account with... guys with a history. But a lot of people in this thread and others keep saying "He's small he's going to get hurt" or "He runs to hard he's going to get hurt" in the spotlight it got to the asinine point of "He's to fast he's going to get hurt".
I just don't see how you can take a guy with zero injury history in college and give any percentage of a chance past 1% that he'll get injured. Most of the guys who we know now as 'injury prone' came into the league with that marker on them. Trent Richardson, Darren McFadden, Jahvid Best, Danny Amendola, Percy Harvin all these guys had injury history at the collegiate level and have continued that trend into the pro level.
It wasn't really meant as a personal attack against you by any means, it's just a trend I'm seeing on the Shark Pool with random players that people seem to want to hate. They have no real basis for it so they just keep making up stuff like 'injury' tags to toss around. And it seems to just be accepted because of how inflated the number of high profile injuries seems to be the last few seasons. My point is, why make an evaluation of something that doesn't exist?
Koya
Footballguy
FWIW, wasn't taken personal at all. As I noted, the whole David Wilson fever has run rampant here, and at times seems to have blurred the logic of entire droves of posters.
To your point, every player has a greater than 1% chance of being injured. And it was only that normal percentage that I referenced when asked what possibly could keep Wilson from 15-20 touches.
Wise Old Owl
Footballguy
I'm a big Wilson fan but I could see him not starting with that many carries. If the giants think his pass pro is a liability and they decide to air it out I think its a possibility his role gets reduced. The giants defense was terrible last year, only the saints were worse, if this team falls behind, Eli to Cruz/Nicks/Randle makes sense to me. I could easily see this scenario occur with Wilson getting 12-15 carries and Brown getting 9-12.
Quick research shows less than 25 total team carries weeks 1-4 last year for the Giants, I think the idea he doesn't get 15-20 touches is perfectly reasonable.
BustedKnuckles
Footballguy
drafted him in both my leagues...im a believer ...he passes the eye test
Rick James
Footballguy
A wildcard here is Wilson's PPR-ability. He lined up out wide a few times last year and caught a few balls. I wonder if that will be expanded at all this year? If so, he may not need 15-20 carries per game. Maybe more like 10-12 carries and a few catches. Thoughts from Giants fans?
Koya
Footballguy
I honestly don't recall him splitting out much at all last year. Not saying it didn't happen, but I watch just about every game and don't remember it. He is not a Faulk type athlete in regard to catching / receiving ability (pick your Faulk I suppose)
Concept Coop
Footballguy
CJ ran a 4.24 at the combine. Wilson didn't come close to that. Wilson is really fast, but that doesn't make him CJ fast. And Wilson's not an olympic sprinter. Not sure where you got that.
The giants coaches are not keeping him into pass pro. He's figured out who to block, but at this point he's just a speed bump en route to Eli. They'll get him out in the flat or in the hole for check downs; however, Eli has poor touch on these throws and prefers not to check down. I really hope, both as a giants fan and fantasy player, that he realizes the weapon he has in wilson +space.
Khy
Footballguy
This keeps being brought up and it makes me laugh. Find me literally any press conference or quote where anyone of the coaches actually criticized his pass protection. Everything that has been mentioned through any media outlet about Wilson's pass protection woes has been purely hear say by beat writers. What we've seen on the field and heard from the coaches is that Wilson has seen striking improvements in his pass protections.
Beat writers keep spinning this tale of Brown being more 'trusted' as a ball carrier and pass protection specialist. Which isn't what we've heard from the coaching staff nor seen on the field. Brown has the only blown pass protections from the two this preseason and he also has the only fumble in the preseason. I have this gut feeling that when the season opens Wilson is going to start the season with a 70/30 carries split and they're going to give him every single opportunity to succeed.
When it's all said and done... Wilson in a lead role has the ability to take this offense which was 6th overall in scoring last season and vault it to a Top 3 offense. Brown doesn't possess this ability and the coaching staff knows that's the case.
Look at the film. On passing plays where wilson was in, he was only asked to block 1x.
Rewatched the 1st three quarters of the Jets game.
In Q1 DW passblocked once on the DE whom he fell in front of and who was in contain mode anyhow.
On the rest of his pass plays, it was play action to him or he went out for a pass, no blocking assignments. In 4 pass plays Brown came in to block.
In Q2 Brown was in and DW was out. Brown passblocked pretty well.
. Coaches are going to tip their hand to the media, but film and beat reports are telling a different story. I think this is a good thing!! keep pascoe into block, let wilson get in space.
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Concept Coop
Footballguy
"He had one very good cut block where he stepped up and took the blitzing linebacker on," Coughlin told the Newark Star-Ledger about Wilson's performance against Pittsburgh. "He tried to do the same (thing another time) and the linebacker stepped over him one time too. So he has to learn that you don't cut people at the feet of the quarterback, that's not going to accomplish anything.
"If you step up and pick up the slack and you're far enough away from the quarterback you can use it as a changeup, but you're going to have to stand in there. So he'll learn that."
http://gridironfans.com/forums/new-york-giants/229127-tom-coughlin-takes-issue-giants-rb-david-wilsons-pass-protection.html
Koya:
I must say, this is one of the most weird threads I can recall on here... I just can't quit it. It's as if people are only ready 80% of the words on a post and then going ballistic in one direction or another.
Agreed ... Here is a good example
Rizzler asked
Can ANYONE give me a solid reason why Wilson wouldnt get 15-20 touches, right from the get go?
Cuz, I seriously haven't seen ONE logical point yet
(aside from him getting an injury)
Koya Responded
Injury can't be overlooked. It doesnt have to be season ending - he can get dinged, only get 5 carries in a game, then maybe the next few games he is limited. These are realities in a football season, especially for someone that has not proven themselves over the course of a season.
By the way since you chose not to read (aside from him getting an injury) ...
Are you implying that somone that has not proven themselves over the course of a season is more likely to get injured? Just curious.
I must say, this is one of the most weird threads I can recall on here... I just can't quit it. It's as if people are only ready 80% of the words on a post and then going ballistic in one direction or another.
Agreed ... Here is a good example
Rizzler asked
Can ANYONE give me a solid reason why Wilson wouldnt get 15-20 touches, right from the get go?
Cuz, I seriously haven't seen ONE logical point yet
(aside from him getting an injury)
Koya Responded
Injury can't be overlooked. It doesnt have to be season ending - he can get dinged, only get 5 carries in a game, then maybe the next few games he is limited. These are realities in a football season, especially for someone that has not proven themselves over the course of a season.
By the way since you chose not to read (aside from him getting an injury) ...
Are you implying that somone that has not proven themselves over the course of a season is more likely to get injured? Just curious.
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Concept Coop
Footballguy
Pots
Footballguy
For those who don't want to read every post, here's a summary:
1) Pretty much everyone agrees that David Wilson is special running the football
2) His use on passing downs and goal line work is in question and the reason for his 3rd round ADP
3) Andre Brown seems to be the more trusted pass blocker by the coaches and will likely be in for many passing downs
4) Andre Brown has struggled in short yardage situations this preseason but no one can predict how many goal line carries he may steal
5) David Wilson is a high-upside pick with a decent floor and should out-perform his current ADP (which will likely rise sharply)
6) Don't expect 250+ carries, but he should do more with the 180-225 he does receive than many current 2nd rounders will
1) Pretty much everyone agrees that David Wilson is special running the football
2) His use on passing downs and goal line work is in question and the reason for his 3rd round ADP
3) Andre Brown seems to be the more trusted pass blocker by the coaches and will likely be in for many passing downs
4) Andre Brown has struggled in short yardage situations this preseason but no one can predict how many goal line carries he may steal
5) David Wilson is a high-upside pick with a decent floor and should out-perform his current ADP (which will likely rise sharply)
6) Don't expect 250+ carries, but he should do more with the 180-225 he does receive than many current 2nd rounders will
Khy
Footballguy
What is the bold even saying exactly? As for the top statement Coughlin's pretty much saying he had a very good block and a missed block. Brown has also missed blocks this preseason. The big issue here is nobody is asking these questions of Brown because of the hype around Wilson that's all anyone really cares about. Is "Coach Tom, what about Wilson doing this." "Coach Tom, what about Wilson doing that?". Brown's missed one or two blocks this preseason just as Wilson has but nobody's said anything about it.
I also feel like one of the more telling things is this statement from Reese.
Reese is completely acknowledging that Brown was great until his injury. Then goes one step past that to mention that he's been injury prone since he's been in the league. The "but if he can stay healthy" statement reads to me "If he can stay healthy and be that change of pace to Wilson we'll have a dynamic backfield". You can say I'm just reading to much into that but I imagine we'll see a situation similar to 2010 on this team. Where Bradshaw had 274 carries to Jacobs 147 carries. In the end it'll probably look something like 250-260 for Wilson and 150-170 for Brown. Wilson will have like 1200-1400 yards and 8-12 TDs and Brown will have like 700-800 yards and 9-12 TDs as well. Brown will see a lot of the goal line work (like Jacobs in 2010) and Wilson will score over half his TDs from outside the red zone. Wilson will end the season as a Top 10 fantasy RB and Brown will end as a solid low-end RB2 high RB3/flex.
Rick James
Footballguy
This isn't necessarily a negative. Do we want our RB blocking or catching screens and dump-offs?
i never said it was a negative. i said i think it's a good thing. here's hoping eli checks down.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Yenrub
Footballguy
[SIZE=10pt]The bolded is a quote from Coughlin and he is saying that while the cut block was effective the 1st time. He (Wilson) used the cut block from too far away from the defender for Coughlin’s liking on the 2nd attempt at the cut block and the defender jumped over him. From this statement it looks like Coughlin wants Wilson to use the cut block as a change of pace technique not as his primary technique and that he should step up into the defender more[/SIZE]
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Grahamburn
Footballguy
I don't get fantasy points for cut blocks!
RUSF18
Footballguy
silentcoach
Footballguy
Koya
Footballguy
I presume you got S Jax? And this is a redraft? If so, I'd be all over that. If its the other way around or a dynasty, wouldn't agree.
Bob Magaw
Footballguy
200 carries seems to be a rough dividing line for top 20 RB...
#21 mccoy (missed four games) had exactly 200 carries...
#27 vick ballard and #28 mcfadden (also missed time) only RBs lower than #20 with 200+ carries
#16 ahmad bradshaw had 221 carries in 14 games, and only 6 TDs...
if healthy, i think wilson will get 225-240 carries (16 X 15 = 240)
he averaged 5 YPC
225 X 5 = 1,125
240 X 5 = 1,200
promisingly, he had 4 TDs on less than a third of the carries of bradshaw... that prolific scoring rate may be hard to replicate with more carries, but than again more chance for his signature explosive big plays... if he kept up pace = 12 rushing TDs (conservatively, lets knock it down by 25-30% to 8-9 TDs)
receiving 4-34-1
average 8.5 yards per reception
if he got two a game, 32 X 8.5 (bradshaw had 23 receptions, so maybe that is high?) = about 275 yards
don't think he scores every four times he catches a pass, so i'll give him 2 TDs
so about 1,400-1,500 combined yards, 10-11 combined TDs (remember, that is conservatively knocking off 3-4 rushing TDs from what straightforward prorated projection would have yielded)
projecting those numbers, would have been better than chris johnson at #12, comparable or little better than gore at #11...
the contention by many leading into this process was that wilson was RB2, with one of best chances in group to attain RB1 status... i don't think anything has happened during preseason to change that view... sometimes, preseason events can be interpreted by respective sides like rorshach blot (and say as much about the person interpreting), but if anything, earlier in process some (ie - brown advocates and proponents) may have been thinking closer to even split of carries, that arguably is looking less likely...
i actually hope brown doesn't get hurt, i think wilson is clearly more talented, more concerned about overuse if brown can't stay healthy which would be consistent with his history... imo, 225-240 could be a sweet spot for carries, unless he proves he is more resilient... but it is a long season, the giants have playoff aspirations, it would make sense to not over work him early...
BTW, i have seen one of the threads on wilson say that he has no elusiveness and just charges into defenders and won't last... he definitely has elusiveness... in college, he could bull through some LBs and nearly all DBs (he was said to have lower body power and leg strength comparable to linemen, and set positional weight lifting records at VTech - you can see how this translates on the field and is an advantage to his game... he also has extraordinary contact balance), but i think he'll be smart about it... i don't see him trying to pull many earl campbell-like isaiah robertson gorings on JJ watt?
* i didn't go into this exercise with preconceived expectation, or fit the data to it like a procrustean bed (wiki greek mythology
), but tried to let the numbers "speak for themselves" and, as much as possible, follow them wherever they led.
#21 mccoy (missed four games) had exactly 200 carries...
#27 vick ballard and #28 mcfadden (also missed time) only RBs lower than #20 with 200+ carries
#16 ahmad bradshaw had 221 carries in 14 games, and only 6 TDs...
if healthy, i think wilson will get 225-240 carries (16 X 15 = 240)
he averaged 5 YPC
225 X 5 = 1,125
240 X 5 = 1,200
promisingly, he had 4 TDs on less than a third of the carries of bradshaw... that prolific scoring rate may be hard to replicate with more carries, but than again more chance for his signature explosive big plays... if he kept up pace = 12 rushing TDs (conservatively, lets knock it down by 25-30% to 8-9 TDs)
receiving 4-34-1
average 8.5 yards per reception
if he got two a game, 32 X 8.5 (bradshaw had 23 receptions, so maybe that is high?) = about 275 yards
don't think he scores every four times he catches a pass, so i'll give him 2 TDs
so about 1,400-1,500 combined yards, 10-11 combined TDs (remember, that is conservatively knocking off 3-4 rushing TDs from what straightforward prorated projection would have yielded)
projecting those numbers, would have been better than chris johnson at #12, comparable or little better than gore at #11...
the contention by many leading into this process was that wilson was RB2, with one of best chances in group to attain RB1 status... i don't think anything has happened during preseason to change that view... sometimes, preseason events can be interpreted by respective sides like rorshach blot (and say as much about the person interpreting), but if anything, earlier in process some (ie - brown advocates and proponents) may have been thinking closer to even split of carries, that arguably is looking less likely...
i actually hope brown doesn't get hurt, i think wilson is clearly more talented, more concerned about overuse if brown can't stay healthy which would be consistent with his history... imo, 225-240 could be a sweet spot for carries, unless he proves he is more resilient... but it is a long season, the giants have playoff aspirations, it would make sense to not over work him early...
BTW, i have seen one of the threads on wilson say that he has no elusiveness and just charges into defenders and won't last... he definitely has elusiveness... in college, he could bull through some LBs and nearly all DBs (he was said to have lower body power and leg strength comparable to linemen, and set positional weight lifting records at VTech - you can see how this translates on the field and is an advantage to his game... he also has extraordinary contact balance), but i think he'll be smart about it... i don't see him trying to pull many earl campbell-like isaiah robertson gorings on JJ watt?
* i didn't go into this exercise with preconceived expectation, or fit the data to it like a procrustean bed (wiki greek mythology
), but tried to let the numbers "speak for themselves" and, as much as possible, follow them wherever they led.
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Koya
Footballguy
PPR would push it even further to S Jax. Really don't see Wilson catching a lot of passes this year... again, I think that part of his game could develop as soon as end of this year into next, however.
The big run may have some effect, but there's been a buliding hype train around Wilson for a while. As I noted elsewhere it scares me (for no logical reasons other than I'm a superstitious Giants fan)
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Nice post Bob.
Koya keep fighting the good fight even if it is a losing battle.
monk listen to the Giants coaches instead of the marbles in your skull please. Your statement that this issue with Wilsons pass protection is fabricated by the beat writers is not true. Wilson did not see the field much last season because of this same issue.
Koya keep fighting the good fight even if it is a losing battle.
monk listen to the Giants coaches instead of the marbles in your skull please. Your statement that this issue with Wilsons pass protection is fabricated by the beat writers is not true. Wilson did not see the field much last season because of this same issue.
netnalp
Footballguy
Bob,
I'd still consider your receiving projection to be on the conservative side. Several beat writers mentioned how the Giants were using a lot of practice time putting the screen pass back into the offense. It really hadn't been used much since Tiki left.
Brown is the better receiver but does he have the talent that they'd put the screen in for him when the team had dropped it when Bradshaw was playing? My thinking is that they are hoping to develop Wilson into the next Tiki Barber.
I'd still consider your receiving projection to be on the conservative side. Several beat writers mentioned how the Giants were using a lot of practice time putting the screen pass back into the offense. It really hadn't been used much since Tiki left.
Brown is the better receiver but does he have the talent that they'd put the screen in for him when the team had dropped it when Bradshaw was playing? My thinking is that they are hoping to develop Wilson into the next Tiki Barber.
