Joique is realistic? He is top 5 in scoring in most formats
may be to some. I'm pretty deep and I have Bell and I might deal him for Wilson given the opportunity because I can park him on my bench and wait. If he blows up, he plays, if he continues to suck, it was a bad trade but wouldn't cripple me. I certainly don't expect Bell to remain top 5, 10 or 20 over the course of the year...nor do I expect Wilson to remain 64th or whatever he is. Seasons have ebbs and flows and timing is everything.
Yeah, I think we saw this week that Bell's real value comes from goal-line carries and Bush being injured. If Bush were to miss time again we saw that Bell is probably an elite-RB1 start during the time Bush misses. But otherwise, he's a low-RB2/high upside Flex. Wilson still does have the potential to be who we thought he'd be coming into the season. So if you have the room to bench him it's worth it.
Again talking regarding Jamaal Charles very similar first and second season starts... it took Charles until Week 10 to finally do something and when he did he exploded. In his second season during his last 8 games he posted 161 Carries, 968 yards, 6.01ypc and 7 TDs after starting the season during the first 8 games with 29 carries, 152 yards, 5.24ypc and 0 TDs.
Is David Wilson Jammal Charles? No, Jamaal Charles is Jamaal Charles and nobody else. But the point does stand to reason. Charles was being under utilized by the Chiefs and didn't see a real chance until the team started the season 1-7 through the first 8 games. Then they finally said "Ahh screw it, Larry Johnson sucks, lets see what Charles can do" and he exploded. We may be seeing a similar situation here with Wilson. We'd like to 'hope' that it happens sooner than Week 10 for Wilson and it might. Is Wilson going to come in and put together 1000 yards over 8 games and 7 TDs? Maybe... maybe not.
The main point here is that we have to assume he eventually gets the chance again to be that true lead back. We haven't seen any 'reason to believe' that right now. And people like Eminence and B-Deep can make the argument that "the coaches may not see the talent everyone else thinks they're seeing" but I think that's a ridiculous comment. It's a wait and see approach and he's still an amazing buy-low in dynasty and a worthwhile buy low if you have room to stash him in redraft.
I still think even on 15 carries there's a good chance he explodes this week against Philly in what should be a closer game. Philly's defense has been a complete mess and no where even close to the caliber of Dallas, Denver, Carolina or KC.
I don't like being grouped in with Eminence
and, my position is that the coaches are doing what they think gives them the best chance to win, which includes not giving Wilson as many carries as you would, and continuing to sub in the other Running Backs. Given that, which is not an opinion or thought it is a fact, the idea that they don't see the upside you see is certainly not ridiculous. It may be wrong, the coaches may think this and they may be wrong, but to totally dismiss the fact that they don't think he has the upside you do seems like tunnel vision. I don;t know if this kid will be a succesful NFL RB, I am just arguing with people who seem to think he is can't miss talent and the giants know it. Maybe he turns it around, but maybe he is a dud and never amounts to anything. I see both as possible, you seem to say his eventual success is inevitable.
I am 100% convinced that if the giants thought this guy was an elite RB they'd keep him on the field more.
what is your position on why he is not featured? They are willing to lose these games to bring him along slowly? Are they are willing to lose these games because they want to teach him a lesson? Or do they think the game plan that gives them the best chance to win is not one where he is featured?
Sure, I can agree with the fact that to this point in the season they may have not thought he was ready to be a lead back. Therefore, leading to his current snap counts (50% the last two weeks) and carries (11 and 13 the past two weeks). My opinion differs from yours but has the same conclusion.
I think they came into snap 1 of Week 1 with the full intention on giving David Wilson around 75% of the snaps and 15-20 touches per game. After his first fumble nothing changed in the game plan. They showed this by putting him out there and going right back to him and continuing what would have been a pace of around 15-20 touches during the Dallas game had he not fumbled a second time. In the first game on 19 first half snaps, 6 of them were David Wilson runs and 1 was a David Wilson target (the Eli int on the first snap). So had he not fumbled he was 'on pace' for about 14 touches in that game. But he was also 36% of their total offense in the first half and 19 snaps is extremely low for the average first half. Assuming a more average 25-30 snaps it's reasonable that without the fumble he'd have seen around 17 touches in the first game.
As we all know, he had that second fumble and was pulled from the game. Not as punishment but because at that point putting him back in there would have probably messed with his head if he fumbled again. The right move for a young rookie was to pull him from the game and sit him and get him to calm down. I firmly believe this was the correct move and the first step into making Wilson into the lead back 'again' if you will.
Then came the next part of the equation. Which was re-building his confidence. In Week 2, they clearly put him on a snap count. And put him back on Kick Returns where he was comfortable and had all the confidence in the world after leading the league last season in KR yardage and average. This was a move I also really liked, some people in this thread have tried to make the argument that this is a 'mans' game and theres no time to wait for some child to build his confidence. And that Wilson has to stop being such a baby and suck it up and play. However, that's asinine. There are hundreds of specific examples of a player that was previously thought of as "bad" or a "bust" that was given a chance by the coaches and they instilled confidence in them and they turned it around.
Week 3 came around, Wilson got around 50% of the work this time around and was still on KR. I felt like they misused him a little bit in this game but nothing that crazy. The game got away from them early. I just felt like they could have gotten more creative with usage of screens and tosses for Wilson to try and make something happen on the ground. I think I had less of a problem with Wilson's lack of usage than I did with their usage of the other RBs on the roster. For example, running Wilson between the tackles on every play then giving tosses to Brandon Jacobs who probably couldn't even run a 4.7 40 at this point in his career. I felt like it was just bad coaching all around not just in Wilson's case.
Week 4... I really expected to see more than 50% of the work for Wilson this week. I was surprised he was held to just 50% of the snaps again. That said he did get 13 carries, two more than the week prior. And regardless of what some uninformed people in this thread would like to think, all but 1 of them came when the game was still in reach. He only had 1 garbage time carry. The problem I'm starting to notice as well as other analysts that I've read around the internet is that the Giants at this point are beginning to telegraph their plays. If I, some random guy on his couch who just watches a lot of football can guess almost every play the team's going to run, I'm sure Andy Reid can do the same. As I posted earlier... 50% of the time Wilson was on the field they ran the ball and 80% of the time Da'rel Scott was on the field they passed. Those kind of telegraphs are completely unacceptable from an NFL offense.
So cliff notes version:
- Wilson isn't being misused... the RBs are being misused period.
- They are telegraphing their plays way to much, if Scott is on the field the defense knows with 80% accuracy that it's going to be a pass. Play action becomes useless. If Wilson's on the field, they know there is a good shot at him running the ball which means they run blitz and plug the lanes.
- Wilson is trying to be slowly groomed to build his confidence
What I'd like to see this week to make me feel better about the situation (besides a Giants win):
- I'd like to see him on the field for the entire first two drives. It's unlikely to happen. But I'd be interested in seeing how a defense can defend against both him AND Eli when it's not so completely obvious what they're doing. I feel like it'd cause more breakdowns in coverage, less accurately timed blitzes and create more running lanes.
- I'd like to see Wilson actually fed the ball in succession. Don't give him a run, watch him break two tackles and run for 12 yards. Then pull him for Scott and say "HEY, BIG RUN. PLAY ACTION PASS" cause you might as well just hold up a cardboard sign from the sidelines that says that. Give him the ball, get the 12 yard run... then here's the real kicker... LEAVE HIM IN THE GAME. So the defense doesn't know what you're about to do... you may run him again, you may play action pass, you may screen it to him. They have no idea. But taking him out and putting Scott in? The Chiefs didn't bite on a single play action that was attempted in those scenarios yesterday.
Some other notes... for those of you that aren't actually watching the games and keep jumping to various conclusions that are false and you don't know because you're not watching the games:
Pass Blocking: He's actually been really good since Week 1. Since Week 1 he hasn't allowed a single sack, hit or hurry on Eli. Da'Rel Scott on the other hand has, as has Brandon Jacobs. Wilson's been chipping when coming out of the backfield for a pass and he's been standing his ground when asked to stay back and protect Eli.
Tackle Breaking: If you're going to try and tell me he can't break tackles. I'll one again refer you to the stat line of his 11 missed tackles on the season, tied for 6th in the league. And he's only behind guys that have almost triple the carries he has on the season.
Fumbles: He has two on the season... they both came in the first game. He has 3 on his career through his first 109 career carries. By comparison, in his first 158 carries Adrian Peterson had 3 fumbles. Jamaal Charles had 3 fumbles in his first 74 career carries. CJ Spiller had 5 in his first 71 career carries. Barry Sanders had 10 in his rookie season. Point being... relax. Almost every elite RB that we know of now at the beginning of their career went through fumbling issues.