parasaurolophus
Footballguy
I have been reading all the Pats/Colts threads and I see a common concept in many of them that I have to say I completely disagree with.
It is being said that the way to beat the Colts is to keep their offense off the field, so teams should only run the ball against them and just try to chew up clock. So I took a look at the Colts 4 losses this year, to see if that was the case. I looked back at their losses in fact for the last few years. This "theory" couldnt be more untrue. Most of their losses were filled with turnovers or high scoring affairs where their defense just couldnt stop the other team.
In fact in several of the Colts losses the Colts had the greater TOP. They had at least 10 drives in all but one(excluding week 17 games where manning didnt even play). Houston beat them 27-24 this year. Controlled TOP and held the Colts to only 6 drives. So this seems to be a brilliant game plan strategy for the Texans Right?
Not so fast. How badly do you think that the Kubiak would get laughed at if going into Week 16 he was having lunch with the owner and they had this conversation.
Mcnair-So Gary what is your game plan to stopping the Colts this week?
Gary- Well we are going to try to control the clock and keep the Colts offense off the field.
Mcnair- OK. What do you plan to do to disrupt them when they do get the ball?
Gary- Well actually nothing.
Mcnair-Huh????
Gary- Yeah, absolutely nothing. We are going to hope for one fluke turnover and then we dont really care if they score on 4 out of their 5 other posessions. In fact 3 of those posessions can even be TDs.
Mcnair- What are you smoking?
Gary- Nothing. You see we are going to score on 4 of our first 6 posessions, 3 of which will also be TDs and then hopefully we can have the ball last and score on the last posession as time is running out. Its foolproof.
Mcnair- Gary you are fired. Get your stuff and get out.
The Texans won that game not because they controlled the clock, but because they scored on an insanely high percentage of their posessions and managed to hit the game winning 48 yard FG as time expired. If the texans score on only half their posessions, they lose. The Texans only scored on half or better of their posessions once all year. Yep, this one game.
I also thought it would make sense to look back and see what the Colts record is in very low scoring games. Going back to 2003 the Colts are 7-0 in games where both teams score less than 20 points.
The Colts lost the time of posession battle in half of their wins this year.
The colts gave up more than 210 yards rushing 4 times this year and went 2-2 in those games. One of those losses came on a last second 60 yard FG.
Bottom line- There is no preset formula to beating the Colts. Controlling the clock isnt very relevant. If you dominate TOP but only score 14 points, you will lose. Just ask the Jaguars. If you can dominate TOP, score on almost every one of your drives, and rush for 300 yards, guess what you will beat EVERYBODY. But simply keeping the Colts offense off the field because you run the ball means nothing. The Colt offense doesnt get rattled because they are on the sidelines. They are used to the other team using more clock time.
It is being said that the way to beat the Colts is to keep their offense off the field, so teams should only run the ball against them and just try to chew up clock. So I took a look at the Colts 4 losses this year, to see if that was the case. I looked back at their losses in fact for the last few years. This "theory" couldnt be more untrue. Most of their losses were filled with turnovers or high scoring affairs where their defense just couldnt stop the other team.
In fact in several of the Colts losses the Colts had the greater TOP. They had at least 10 drives in all but one(excluding week 17 games where manning didnt even play). Houston beat them 27-24 this year. Controlled TOP and held the Colts to only 6 drives. So this seems to be a brilliant game plan strategy for the Texans Right?
Not so fast. How badly do you think that the Kubiak would get laughed at if going into Week 16 he was having lunch with the owner and they had this conversation.
Mcnair-So Gary what is your game plan to stopping the Colts this week?
Gary- Well we are going to try to control the clock and keep the Colts offense off the field.
Mcnair- OK. What do you plan to do to disrupt them when they do get the ball?
Gary- Well actually nothing.
Mcnair-Huh????
Gary- Yeah, absolutely nothing. We are going to hope for one fluke turnover and then we dont really care if they score on 4 out of their 5 other posessions. In fact 3 of those posessions can even be TDs.
Mcnair- What are you smoking?
Gary- Nothing. You see we are going to score on 4 of our first 6 posessions, 3 of which will also be TDs and then hopefully we can have the ball last and score on the last posession as time is running out. Its foolproof.
Mcnair- Gary you are fired. Get your stuff and get out.
The Texans won that game not because they controlled the clock, but because they scored on an insanely high percentage of their posessions and managed to hit the game winning 48 yard FG as time expired. If the texans score on only half their posessions, they lose. The Texans only scored on half or better of their posessions once all year. Yep, this one game.
I also thought it would make sense to look back and see what the Colts record is in very low scoring games. Going back to 2003 the Colts are 7-0 in games where both teams score less than 20 points.
The Colts lost the time of posession battle in half of their wins this year.
The colts gave up more than 210 yards rushing 4 times this year and went 2-2 in those games. One of those losses came on a last second 60 yard FG.
Bottom line- There is no preset formula to beating the Colts. Controlling the clock isnt very relevant. If you dominate TOP but only score 14 points, you will lose. Just ask the Jaguars. If you can dominate TOP, score on almost every one of your drives, and rush for 300 yards, guess what you will beat EVERYBODY. But simply keeping the Colts offense off the field because you run the ball means nothing. The Colt offense doesnt get rattled because they are on the sidelines. They are used to the other team using more clock time.
