Democrats - What's The Goal In November? (1 Viewer)

[Jackstraw]

The Republicans will SHRED Bernie if he's the nominee. He's been handled with kid gloves by both the Democrats AND Republicans. 

He has not faced negative campaigning at the Presidential level yet. 

He has a ton of negative garbage that hasn't even hit the American consciousnous yet. 

Now they are gonna hit Joe with the Ukraine garbage but I don't think it will stick. I could be wrong. 

 

[TheMagus]

I just thought of another good example.  In 2008, there were a significant number of Democrats that shied away from supporting Obama at first due to the perception that a black guy with a Muslim-sounding name had no chance to win.  Even black voters in South Carolina didn't support him until after he won Iowa and proved that white people would vote for him. 

I think there is something in here about black voters in the south, who make up a significant portion of the Democratic electorate. Due to life experiences and the fact that they have way more at stake than the average urban/suburban white voter, it seems they lean more towards who they view as "safe" meaning who they think the white people will vote for. This is currently playing out with Biden. I'm not saying they are wrong, but I think this definitely influences the "lifetime achievement award" type of candidates . It seems like older people also, in general, favor candidates they are familiar with instead of going with something new and different  (I wonder if I will think that way as a senior ). It would be interesting to go back and look at a demographic breakdown in the 2008 primaries between Hillary and Obama. My guess would be that the older demographic largely went with Hillary. I may go look that up when my meeting is over.

 

[roadkill1292]

The Republicans will SHRED Bernie if he's the nominee. He's been handled with kid gloves by both the Democrats AND Republicans. 

He has not faced negative campaigning at the Presidential level yet. 

He has a ton of negative garbage that hasn't even hit the American consciousnous yet. 

Now they are gonna hit Joe with the Ukraine garbage but I don't think it will stick. I could be wrong. 

It shouldn't stick because there wasn't anything there (and it will rightfully remind Dem voters of Don's attempt to subordinate the election) but Trump voters still believe in Benghazi and Uranium One.

 

[The Commish]

The results of this poll reflect why we keep getting bad candidates on Democratic side

It continues to amaze me how people can't see what's right in front of their faces.  Right or wrong, the MOST energized voting block under the Dem tent is the Sanders block and it's not close by any measure.  They are the most passionate and dedicated to the cause....period, end of story.  They are a 100% lock to vote for their guy and will vote en mass.  But somehow the Dems have convinced themselves it's a good idea to turn their backs on them.  As FG alluded to above, this party is obsessed with "electability"...a completely subjective measure.  They won't have a coherent message as a result which will continue to lead in fighting which will continue to lead to fractures.  Emotion has taken the place of logic and reason.

 

[Summer Wheat]

The greatest candidate in the world means absolutely nothing if he or she can't beat Trump. That is the top priority as IMO there will be irreparable damage done to this country with another 4 years of Trump (just based on the SCOTUS replacements alone).  

And I know others I work with who feel just the opposite about the SCOTUS replacements.  I guess that is what makes the world go round.

 

[Sheriff Bart]

Hey now @Sinn Fein welcome back.

I didn’t vote because I’m not a Democrat, but am interested in the discussion. 

I almost didn't vote because I've never voted as a democrat but will be soon so figure close enough.

 

[tommyGunZ]

Piggybacking on fatguy’s observations, one of the reasons Democrats are so bad at gaging electability is that they’re way behind on polarization. Many Democrats still buy into the idea that there are lots of moderate conservatives out there who can be won over if presented with a moderate Democratic option. It’s Lucy with the football nonsense. If we’ve learned anything from moderate conservatives over the last few elections it’s that they will find an excuse to come home on election day, and vote for GWB or Trump despite being given a competent, moderate alternative.  

Vote for the candidate that would make the best President, and let the electability stuff work itself out.  

 

[huthut]

Quoting myself from another thread, but it does not look like there is a huge difference in electablity between Sanders and Biden as of late February, so part of the debate on who would beat Trump is also a debate on whose policies you like.

I was looking mainly at state polls. It is actually fairly close, but I would argue it counters the argument that Sanders is not competitive. Obviously this is just a thought exercise this far from the election, and I am not looking too much into the the cross tabs of each poll to see if they have abnormal ratios that can bias it, but just looking at averages of potentially competitive states with some polling:

Texas - Trump +2.4 over Sanders, +2.6 over Biden - probably not going to be a swing state this year, but close enough in these polls to include

NC - Sanders + 0.7 over Trump, Biden +3.4 over Trump

Penn - Both Sanders and Biden + 3 over Trump

Wis - Trump +1 over Sanders, + 1.7 over Biden

Mich - Sanders + 5.3 over Trump, Biden + 5.2 over Trump

I would argue that Sanders is under-represented some amount, just because young people only have cell phones and don't answer unknown numbers, but I have no evidence of this, just a personal assumption. 

All data from here, so not sure if anything is omitted: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

 

[squistion]

The Republicans will SHRED Bernie if he's the nominee. He's been handled with kid gloves by both the Democrats AND Republicans. 

He has not faced negative campaigning at the Presidential level yet. 

He has a ton of negative garbage that hasn't even hit the American consciousnous yet. 

Now they are gonna hit Joe with the Ukraine garbage but I don't think it will stick. I could be wrong. 

Exactly. He has never been vetted. Hillary was afraid to use the ammunition available for fear of losing Bernie voters in November (which happened anyway to a certain extent). Trump has already started calling him a Communist and Bernie recently praising Castro didn't help matters any.

I don't think playing the Ukraine/Burisma/Hunter Biden card will be that damaging because Trump and Fox talked it to death until they thought Biden's candidacy was dead in the water. They will try to revive it, but I suspect most people have already reached a decision that it was overblown and will not factor in their decision making process as to who to vote for. 

 

[KiddLattimer]

Voting to 100% stop the other side's candidate is a great way to get a #### sandwich. 

I'm not saying Trump is a good guy... I think he's terrible, but the Republicans are never going to run a candidate that the democrats will love, and it may get worse from here.

If we all just chose a democrat candidate that we all feel is the best (whoever that may be) that should take care of itself.

 

[fatguyinalittlecoat]

Has Biden been vetted any more than Bernie?  

 

[Insomniac]

like, <270

only took him 32 years of running for POTUS to win a state

IMO he’s an even worse candidate than HRC, which is not an easy achievement 

perceived safe choice but he’s a bumbling dufus who is out of teach with the electorate 

He is not anywhere near Hillary in hatred from the right.

 

[The Commish]

Has Biden been vetted any more than Bernie?  

I'm pretty confident by "vetted" they mean smeared.  That's what's going to happen.  He'll be smeared.  The GOP has no interest in digging into policy to actually vet him.  It will be smear after smear, falsehood after falsehood just like it would be for any Dem candidate.  There are some who believe that it will be more "meaningful" because it's Bernie, but that's dishonest IMO.

 

[huthut]

Not sure how much weight you want to give to this former Clinton supporter (currently supporting Sanders) Peter Daou, but he mentions Sanders has been pretty thoroughly vetted:

https://twitter.com/peterdaou/status/1222524697117646849

As mentioned, the Republicans will smear any Democratic candidate. They will call any of them the most liberal, socalist etc. You can look at plenty of tweets from previous elections where they call Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama a Marxist. Reality does not matter. They definitely will call Sanders an un-American communist marxist looking to take all of your money and nationalize all private industry, but they will also do the same for Biden or anyone else.

 

[Sinn Fein]

Has Biden been vetted any more than Bernie?  

yes and no.

I think both are relatively well-known commodities - with skeletons in their closets.

Given the composite pictures we have of both, I can't imagine that anything would come up to significantly alter the public perception of either.

 

[tommyGunZ]

He is not anywhere near Hillary in hatred from the right.

It’s only March.  Give FoxNews 9 months and let’s see where we are.  

 

[TheMagus]

Quoting myself from another thread, but it does not look like there is a huge difference in electablity between Sanders and Biden as of late February, so part of the debate on who would beat Trump is also a debate on whose policies you like.

I don't think head to head polls 8 months out are all that meaningful, especially those which all appear to be within the margin of error. When people are talking about electability, it is based on gut feeling. There is no meaningful data to help make the determination at this point.

 

[huthut]

It’s only March.  Give FoxNews 9 months and let’s see where we are.  

It will be hard to generate 30 years of hatred in 9 months, but they will try!

 

[huthut]

I don't think head to head polls 8 months out are all that meaningful, especially those which all appear to be within the margin of error. When people are talking about electability, it is based on gut feeling. There is no meaningful data to help make the determination at this point.

That is the point I was getting at though, there is no meaningful difference right now in electablity between Biden or Sanders, but if you read some of the threads they act like Sanders has 15% of the vote and Biden has 60% vs Trump. 

 

[toshiba]

"100% Put forth the candidate that will make the best President. 0% Beat Trump" 

I think any of the candidates can beat Trump, so I went with the best President.

 

[fatguyinalittlecoat]

 When people are talking about electability, it is based on gut feeling. 

Right, and that "gut feeling" is heavily influenced by your media diet and the bubble that you happen to inhabit.  That's the problem.

 

[tommyGunZ]

I'm pretty confident by "vetted" they mean smeared.  That's what's going to happen.  He'll be smeared.  The GOP has no interest in digging into policy to actually vet him.  It will be smear after smear, falsehood after falsehood just like it would be for any Dem candidate.  There are some who believe that it will be more "meaningful" because it's Bernie, but that's dishonest IMO.

i don’t know that the smears would be more meaningful, but I’m fairly certain the Bernie smear will be much easier for Fox and defending Bernie will be far more difficult, since much of the smears will be actual clips of Bernie himself.  Biden smears are relatively easy to defend; you just point out that he isn’t perfect but he’ll essentially run his administration like an Obama 3rd term, and then have Obama back that narrative.  

 

[tommyGunZ]

It will be hard to generate 30 years of hatred in 9 months, but they will try!

Remember in 2008, when Obama won the nomination, and lots of moderate conservatives suggested that they could have actually supported a moderate like Hillary, but Democrats had to choose the crazy liberal.  

 

[Sinn Fein]

It’s only March.  Give FoxNews 9 months and let’s see where we are.  

Its odd, but I think many of Biden's "negatives" are democratic-centric - thinking of the Crime Bill, the vote for the Iraq War in particular - neither of which would be good topics to make the right dislike Biden.

I think the GOP might have played the Burisma card too early (I don't think it was much of a card at all, but to the extent it could damage Biden, it will be water under the bridge by the general election).

 

[squistion]

Voting to 100% stop the other side's candidate is a great way to get a #### sandwich. 

I'm not saying Trump is a good guy... I think he's terrible, but the Republicans are never going to run a candidate that the democrats will love, and it may get worse from here.

If we all just chose a democrat candidate that we all feel is the best (whoever that may be) that should take care of itself.

No, but most Democrats I know could have a least lived with some of the other GOP 2016 candidates (Jeb, Rand Paul, Rubio) and I am sure they would not have used to Presidency to line their and their family's pockets like Trump has, nor act like a monarch claiming under the 2nd Amendment they can do anything they want or defy subpoenas from Congress and prevent witnesses from testifying citing absolute privilege. 

And and I doubt that it could get any worse than Trump. 

 

[huthut]

Remember in 2008, when Obama won the nomination, and lots of moderate conservatives suggested that they could have actually supported a moderate like Hillary, but Democrats had to choose the crazy liberal.  

You always get Republican bad faith stuff, even in threads here. "Well, if you chose the other candidate I could have supported them, now you are forcing me to vote Trump" type stuff. You also had some of the same pundits on TV who are saying Sanders is unelectable also saying Obama was unelectable. 

 

[The Commish]

i don’t know that the smears would be more meaningful, but I’m fairly certain the Bernie smear will be much easier for Fox and defending Bernie will be far more difficult, since much of the smears will be actual clips of Bernie himself.  Biden smears are relatively easy to defend; you just point out that he isn’t perfect but he’ll essentially run his administration like an Obama 3rd term, and then have Obama back that narrative.  

Yeah, I don't know....a smear is just that.  It's not some beacon of truth and validity.  In the end we'll still have to choose between Bernie and Trump and that seems like an easy choice, even for a guy like me.  I can completely justify a vote for Bernie on moral principals alone...forget the policies.  That where I see us as being as a country right now.

 

[tommyGunZ]

Yeah, I don't know....a smear is just that.  It's not some beacon of truth and validity.  In the end we'll still have to choose between Bernie and Trump and that seems like an easy choice, even for a guy like me.  I can completely justify a vote for Bernie on moral principals alone...forget the policies.  That where I see us as being as a country right now.

True.  But their was a stark moral difference in 2016 as well, and it didn’t matter, so....

 

[TheMagus]

Right, and that "gut feeling" is heavily influenced by your media diet and the bubble that you happen to inhabit.  That's the problem.

Personally I don't think the media or my bubble is influencing my opinion on "electability." I still stand by the fact that a 38 year old gay mayor from a town with 100,000 residents was the most electable lol. This is based on what I imagined would happen in the next couple of months had he gained momentum. Most of that is because I personally really liked him and imagined that once they got to know him, the majority of the population would also. People's opinions are complicated. I think everyone is on the same page though that no one can possibly predict it accurately at this point. 

 

[Jackstraw]

i don’t know that the smears would be more meaningful, but I’m fairly certain the Bernie smear will be much easier for Fox and defending Bernie will be far more difficult, since much of the smears will be actual clips of Bernie himself.  Biden smears are relatively easy to defend; you just point out that he isn’t perfect but he’ll essentially run his administration like an Obama 3rd term, and then have Obama back that narrative.  

Someboy in here had a take that I agreed with. Biden is the nominee then it's a referendum on Trump. Bernie wins and its a referendum on Bernie. We want to spotlight on Trump. 

 

[tommyGunZ]

Someboy in here had a take that I agreed with. Biden is the nominee then it's a referendum on Trump. Bernie wins and its a referendum on Bernie. We want to spotlight on Trump. 

That’s fair.  

 

[The Commish]

Yeah, I don't know....a smear is just that.  It's not some beacon of truth and validity.  In the end we'll still have to choose between Bernie and Trump and that seems like an easy choice, even for a guy like me.  I can completely justify a vote for Bernie on moral principals alone...forget the policies.  That where I see us as being as a country right now.

True.  But their was a stark moral difference in 2016 as well, and it didn’t matter, so....

I need to be clear...Bernie passes the morality standard I have for candidates.  It's not because he's "better" in that department than Trump is (even though that's true).

 

[Navin Johnson]

Someboy in here had a take that I agreed with. Biden is the nominee then it's a referendum on Trump. Bernie wins and its a referendum on Bernie. We want to spotlight on Trump. 

Or it may be a referendum on the ongoing shift to the right that has been taking place in the Democratic Party the last 28 years.

 

[Jefferson the Caregiver]

Voted 0%/100% beat Trump mainly because I think just about anyone could be a better president.

Didn't really need to go any farther than the first answer.

I also believe and I saw someone else post this somewhere, that even if Biden is bumbling and sometimes doesn't seem to know what day it is, he will still surround himself with good advisors.  I trust him to do that much right and that's good enough for me.  

 

[CentralPA]

Didn't really need to go any farther than the first answer.

I also believe and I saw someone else post this somewhere, that even if Biden is bumbling and sometimes doesn't seem to know what day it is, he will still surround himself with good advisors.  I trust him to do that much right and that's good enough for me.  

Its a hold my nose situation for me now but I will vote Biden if he ends up being the nominee....even if I do think his mental affairs aren't quite in order.  The other guy's is much worse.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

I think there is something in here about black voters in the south, who make up a significant portion of the Democratic electorate. Due to life experiences and the fact that they have way more at stake than the average urban/suburban white voter, it seems they lean more towards who they view as "safe" meaning who they think the white people will vote for. This is currently playing out with Biden. I'm not saying they are wrong, but I think this definitely influences the "lifetime achievement award" type of candidates . It seems like older people also, in general, favor candidates they are familiar with instead of going with something new and different  (I wonder if I will think that way as a senior ). It would be interesting to go back and look at a demographic breakdown in the 2008 primaries between Hillary and Obama. My guess would be that the older demographic largely went with Hillary. I may go look that up when my meeting is over.

There's a fair bit of evidence that black voters and particularly black southern voters are more conservative than a lot of the Dem base.  If right, it's not "safe" so much as it is "moderate".