Denver GM Ted Sunquist talks about their RB's (1 Viewer)

[FrostBite]

yup youre right. ill change the title.

 

[bagger.]

LOL @ comparing the Giants' rushing game with Denvers'.  That's your first mistake.  Your second is an irrational hate of Dayne that shows up every time his name is mentioned.

Look, I watched Bell 2 years ago as he finally got some carries in the last few games of the season.  He looked very good.  I jumped on the Bell bandwagon in the offseason before last year and thought he was primed for a great ride.  I posted Bell's averages compared to all the other DEN RBs and how he matched up favorably.  Shanahan stated (not directly, of course) that Bell was going to be the guy.

Then I saw Bell in training camp and started disbelieving.  He didn't hit the inside holes as hard, and he was losing yardage or gaining negligibly on inside runs more than he was gaining significantly.  He became less effective unless the played called for a run on the edge or beyond.  Then in the preseason he became completely inconsistent, and that's when I jumped on the Anderson bandwagon.  Whatever Bell had at the end of his rookie year he had clearly lost.  Shanahan won't tolerate using a guy who gives a 10 yd run followed by 3 or 4 very short to no-gain runs in his offense.  He doesn't have a QB who can consistently get DEN out of 3rd & longs.  Shanahan's O depends on a RB who will at least gain 2-3 yds even on a busted play, and keeps the chains moving by avoiding 3rd downs or staying in 3rd & short.  Shanahan switched from Bell to Anderson & didn't think twice about it.

Dayne showed last season that he could do that in the DEN O - which is why Anderson was sent packing & DEN didn't select a RB in the draft.  He shut up, ran hard, played special teams, and bided his time.  He didn't ##### when he was deactivated, and showed up ready to play hard every week.  And when DEN needed a RB the most in critical 4th quarter situations - against SD in week 2 and against DAL on Thanksgiving, Dayne came up huge & gave DEN 2 Ws they probably would not have gotten otherwise.  Dayne earned his starting spot.

Now, Shanahan isn't giving Dayne the spot just because he wants to thank Dayne for his sacrifice, his effort, and his clutch play.  He has given Dayne the starting spot because he sees a RB who can be a chain mover, give him an occassional big play, and pound the ball a ton.  That's DEN football.

And I'll dare say that Shanahan knows a heck of a lot more about which RB fits his O than you do.

Irrational hate? No hatred, just have no place for him on a fantasy roster and think it is hilarious that people are still buying in. This is the same group that thought Brandon Jacobs would steal Tiki's touches I bet.

Whether you can live with that is your problem.  Just keep posting your derisive crap, & let's see how Dayne performs, shall we?  If Shanny says Dayne is his featured guy and you say Dayne isn't, please excuse me for siding with Shanahan.  I think he's got a little better handle on NFL RBs that fit his system than you do - no offense.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

at you comparing Shanahan's NFL knowledge to mine as if it is relevant to this discussion. The fact that you are believing Shanahan hook line and sinker is great. Keep up the good work in the Shark Pool.

 

[CalBear]

Looking only at high-carry games is complete bunk; all backs perform better in high-carry games than low-carry games, and Tiki Barber on the same team as Dayne outperformed him by something like 1.5 yards per carry if you consider only high-carry games.

 

[bagger.]

at people still believing in Dayne.

this is a recurring joke that never gets old.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

You keep believing that. No one believed Shanahan last year when he said Anderson would be the starter. So, fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice......well, you know how it goes.
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

dayne <> andersonunfortunately the board threads have been pruned or else i would show year after year how people said dayne would finally break out.

fool you once? people have been fooled by dayne 5 years in a row now. it is laughable.

this is who you think should be taken in the mid rounds?

            |          Rushing         |        Receiving        |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+| Year  TM |   G |   Att  Yards    Y/A   TD |   Rec  Yards   Y/R   TD |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+| 2000 nyg |  16 |   228    770    3.4    5 |     3     11   3.7    0 || 2001 nyg |  16 |   180    690    3.8    7 |     8     67   8.4    0 || 2002 nyg |  16 |   125    428    3.4    3 |    11     49   4.5    0 || 2004 nyg |  14 |    52    179    3.4    1 |     1      7   7.0    0 || 2005 den |  10 |    53    270    5.1    1 |     3     17   5.7    0 |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+|  TOTAL   |  72 |   638   2337    3.7   17 |    26    151   5.8    0 |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

But I heard Dayne is coming to camp in the best shape of his life!!!
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

It is no surprise to me that if we lined everyone up in the Shark Pool on this debate, the old timers here would be on the anti-Dayne side and all the new "sharks" would be touting Dayne as the next Anderson.

I really thought this whole Dayne debate was over two years ago. Freddie Kruger has nothing on Dayne. Just can't kill him.

 

[P Boy]

at you comparing Shanahan's NFL knowledge to mine as if it is relevant to this discussion.  The fact that you are believing Shanahan hook line and sinker is great.   Keep up the good work in the Shark Pool.

You can scoff all you want, but Shanahan has been up front regarding his RBs unless injury were involved. Then he played the psyche game as far as the NFL would allow (and sometimes beyond). But if all RBs on the roster were/are healthy, he has always been up front about the pecking order in the backfield.

 

[bagger.]

I am amazed that people are going to once again draft Dayne as though he is better than a pile of ####.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

You're drafting the #1 back in the DEN O. That's worth at least a 2nd round pick regardless of who the player is. And the gravy thing about it is you can draft Dayne in the 5th round or later.But keep that negative vibe going, it's going to help the sharks out tremendously.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I swear I will be so happy in WCOFF if people are drafting Dayne in the 5th.lol at Dayne being gravy in the mid rounds.

 

[FrostBite]

Looking only at high-carry games is complete bunk; all backs perform better in high-carry games than low-carry games, and Tiki Barber on the same team as Dayne outperformed him by something like 1.5 yards per carry if you consider only high-carry games.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Some football players do better in different situations. Thomas Jones anyone? Priest Holmes?

 

[P Boy]

Looking only at high-carry games is complete bunk; all backs perform better in high-carry games than low-carry games, and Tiki Barber on the same team as Dayne outperformed him by something like 1.5 yards per carry if you consider only high-carry games.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Really? All RBs perform better in average rushing yards per carry and average carrys per TD in high carry games rather than low carry games? I'd like to see you support that with evidence.

 

[thatguy]

at people still believing in Dayne.

this is a recurring joke that never gets old.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

You keep believing that. No one believed Shanahan last year when he said Anderson would be the starter. So, fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice......well, you know how it goes.
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

dayne <> andersonunfortunately the board threads have been pruned or else i would show year after year how people said dayne would finally break out.

fool you once? people have been fooled by dayne 5 years in a row now. it is laughable.

this is who you think should be taken in the mid rounds?

            |          Rushing         |        Receiving        |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+| Year  TM |   G |   Att  Yards    Y/A   TD |   Rec  Yards   Y/R   TD |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+| 2000 nyg |  16 |   228    770    3.4    5 |     3     11   3.7    0 || 2001 nyg |  16 |   180    690    3.8    7 |     8     67   8.4    0 || 2002 nyg |  16 |   125    428    3.4    3 |    11     49   4.5    0 || 2004 nyg |  14 |    52    179    3.4    1 |     1      7   7.0    0 || 2005 den |  10 |    53    270    5.1    1 |     3     17   5.7    0 |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+|  TOTAL   |  72 |   638   2337    3.7   17 |    26    151   5.8    0 |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

But I heard Dayne is coming to camp in the best shape of his life!!!
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

It is no surprise to me that if we lined everyone up in the Shark Pool on this debate, the old timers here would be on the anti-Dayne side and all the new "sharks" would be touting Dayne as the next Anderson.

I really thought this whole Dayne debate was over two years ago. Freddie Kruger has nothing on Dayne. Just can't kill him.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I'll bet all the "old time Sharks" were pimping Anderson around this time last year too, huh?

 

[bagger.]

Looking only at high-carry games is complete bunk; all backs perform better in high-carry games than low-carry games, and Tiki Barber on the same team as Dayne outperformed him by something like 1.5 yards per carry if you consider only high-carry games.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Some football players do better in different situations. Thomas Jones anyone? Priest Holmes?
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

We are talking about Ron Dayne here.Has everyone lost their mind?

 

[JohnnyU]

All I know is that Dayne at 8.10 (me) and 6.02 (the other conference) is better than Bell at 3.01 (other conf) and 6.08 (my conf).

 

[bagger.]

I'll bet all the "old time Sharks" were pimping Anderson around this time last year too, huh?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Yes, actually.

 

[bagger.]

All I know is that Dayne at 8.10 (me) and 6.02 (the other conference) is better than Bell at 3.01 (other conf) and 6.08 (my conf).

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

That is close call.I think both are going too high currently given we have no idea how it will shake out.

 

[P Boy]

We are talking about Ron Dayne here.Has everyone lost their mind?

No. We just differ from you because we keep them open.

 

[FrostBite]

It is no surprise to me that if we lined everyone up in the Shark Pool on this debate, the old timers here would be on the anti-Dayne side and all the new "sharks" would be touting Dayne as the next Anderson.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

[CalBear]

Looking only at high-carry games is complete bunk; all backs perform better in high-carry games than low-carry games, and Tiki Barber on the same team as Dayne outperformed him by something like 1.5 yards per carry if you consider only high-carry games.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Some football players do better in different situations. Thomas Jones anyone? Priest Holmes?
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

That's not the issue. The issue is that if you look at only high-carry games, you are looking only at games where the running back was effective; you're selecting for successful games. Every starting RB in the league has better stats when you ignore his low-carry games; look it up.

 

[bagger.]

We are talking about Ron Dayne here.

Has everyone lost their mind?

No. We just differ from you because we keep them open.
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Normally I am open...but this is Ron Dayne here. He is the running joke of the inner circles of fantasy football.

 

[bagger.]

It is no surprise to me that if we lined everyone up in the Shark Pool on this debate, the old timers here would be on the anti-Dayne side and all the new "sharks" would be touting Dayne as the next Anderson.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Dead serious actually.

 

[thatguy]

I'll bet all the "old time Sharks" were pimping Anderson around this time last year too, huh?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Yes, actually.
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

That's funny. The only person I remember pimping Anderson this early was SSOG, who got #### from just about everyone, including most of the "old time sharks". "Old time sharks", that makes me laugh. Be careful on that high horse of yours, okay? You might fall. Maybe you were on the bandwagon this early. Maybe you weren't. But it's silly, and quite presumptuous, to suggest that a low member number signifies more football knowledge. No matter. You'll be eating your words in a few months anyway.

 

[bagger.]

I'll bet all the "old time Sharks" were pimping Anderson around this time last year too, huh?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Yes, actually.
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

That's funny. The only person I remember pimping Anderson this early was SSOG, who got #### from just about everyone, including most of the "old time sharks". "Old time sharks", that makes me laugh. Be careful on that high horse of yours, okay? You might fall. Maybe you were on the bandwagon this early. Maybe you weren't. But it's silly, and quite presumptuous, to suggest that a low member number signifies more football knowledge. No matter. You'll be eating your words in a few months anyway.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

i'm not a shark.i was just trying to speak the lingo here.

:(

 

[P Boy]

We are talking about Ron Dayne here.

Has everyone lost their mind?

No. We just differ from you because we keep them open.
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Normally I am open...but this is Ron Dayne here. He is the running joke of the inner circles of fantasy football.
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

How was Rueben Droughns' reputation 2 years ago?

 

[thatguy]

I'll bet all the "old time Sharks" were pimping Anderson around this time last year too, huh?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Yes, actually.
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

By the way, why on earth were you pimping Anderson last year to begin with? Surely, with all of Shanny's smokescreens, there was no good reason to believe that Anderson would in fact be his guy come training camp.

 

[JohnnyU]

All I know is that Dayne at 8.10 (me) and 6.02 (the other conference) is better than Bell at 3.01 (other conf) and 6.08 (my conf).

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

That is close call.I think both are going too high currently given we have no idea how it will shake out.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Oh, I have an idea. It may just be worth your while to pay attention to Skeletor this time. He didn't lie about Anderson last year. Yes, he does fib about injuries, but I don't remember the last time he lied about the status of his RBs as far as playing time.

 

[P Boy]

Looking only at high-carry games is complete bunk; all backs perform better in high-carry games than low-carry games, and Tiki Barber on the same team as Dayne outperformed him by something like 1.5 yards per carry if you consider only high-carry games.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Some football players do better in different situations. Thomas Jones anyone? Priest Holmes?
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

That's not the issue. The issue is that if you look at only high-carry games, you are looking only at games where the running back was effective; you're selecting for successful games. Every starting RB in the league has better stats when you ignore his low-carry games; look it up.
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I have. What you are stating is untrue, if you base the numbers on per carry averages.

 

[jurb26]

I'll bet all the "old time Sharks" were pimping Anderson around this time last year too, huh?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Yes, actually.
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

That's funny. The only person I remember pimping Anderson this early was SSOG, who got #### from just about everyone, including most of the "old time sharks". "Old time sharks", that makes me laugh. Be careful on that high horse of yours, okay? You might fall. Maybe you were on the bandwagon this early. Maybe you weren't. But it's silly, and quite presumptuous, to suggest that a low member number signifies more football knowledge. No matter. You'll be eating your words in a few months anyway.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

SSOG was not the only one. Just vastly more vocal then anyone else. As a matter of fact, I can't recall him even posting on anything else.

 

[thatguy]

I'll bet all the "old time Sharks" were pimping Anderson around this time last year too, huh?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Yes, actually.
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

That's funny. The only person I remember pimping Anderson this early was SSOG, who got #### from just about everyone, including most of the "old time sharks". "Old time sharks", that makes me laugh. Be careful on that high horse of yours, okay? You might fall. Maybe you were on the bandwagon this early. Maybe you weren't. But it's silly, and quite presumptuous, to suggest that a low member number signifies more football knowledge. No matter. You'll be eating your words in a few months anyway.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

i'm not a shark.i was just trying to speak the lingo here.

:(

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I hate the term shark. You started it.

 

[bagger.]

We are talking about Ron Dayne here.

Has everyone lost their mind?

No. We just differ from you because we keep them open.
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Normally I am open...but this is Ron Dayne here. He is the running joke of the inner circles of fantasy football.
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

How was Rueben Droughns' reputation 2 years ago?
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Not sure what this has to do with Dayne.

 

[thatguy]

I'll bet all the "old time Sharks" were pimping Anderson around this time last year too, huh?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Yes, actually.
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

That's funny. The only person I remember pimping Anderson this early was SSOG, who got #### from just about everyone, including most of the "old time sharks". "Old time sharks", that makes me laugh. Be careful on that high horse of yours, okay? You might fall. Maybe you were on the bandwagon this early. Maybe you weren't. But it's silly, and quite presumptuous, to suggest that a low member number signifies more football knowledge. No matter. You'll be eating your words in a few months anyway.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

SSOG was not the only one. Just vstly more vocal then anyone else. As a matter of fact, I can't recall him even posting on anything else.
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Just about. Anderson supporters this early last season were the exception and not the rule, and that's all I was implying.

 

[CalBear]

We are talking about Ron Dayne here.

Has everyone lost their mind?

No. We just differ from you because we keep them open.
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Normally I am open...but this is Ron Dayne here. He is the running joke of the inner circles of fantasy football.
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

How was Rueben Droughns' reputation 2 years ago?
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Droughns had 40 career carries as a fullback. They are not at all comparable.

 

[P Boy]

That's not the issue.  The issue is that if you look at only high-carry games, you are looking only at games where the running back was effective; you're selecting for successful games.  Every starting RB in the league has better stats when you ignore his low-carry games; look it up.

Here, allow me to emphasize. Here are the top RBs last season, based upon yards per carry, no minimum carries:

Player	Team	Att	AvgRock Cartwright	WAS	27	7.4Jason McKie	CHI	3	7.3Dan Kreider	PIT	3	7Aveion Cason	STL	10	6.5Darren Sproles	SD	8	6.3Michael Pittman	TB	70	6.2Michael Turner	SD	57	5.9Justin Fargas	OAK	5	5.6Terry Jackson	SF	2	5.5Tatum Bell	DEN	173	5.3Damien Nash	TEN	6	5.3Tiki Barber	NYG	357	5.2Maurice Hicks	SF	59	5.2Larry Johnson	KC	336	5.2Shaun Alexander	SEA	370	5.1Warrick Dunn	ATL	280	5.1Ryan Moats	PHI	55	5.1

And here are the top TD scorers, based upon carrys per TD:

Player	Team	Att	C/TDJerald Sowell	NYJ	1	1.00Derrick Wimbush	JAC	3	3.00Kyle Johnson	DEN	4	4.00Brandon Jacobs	NYG	38	5.43Mike Alstott	TB	34	5.67Ciatrick Fason	MIN	32	8.00LaBrandon Toefield	JAC	36	9.00Aveion Cason	STL	10	10.00Dominic Rhodes	IND	40	10.00Jason Wright	CLE	11	11.00Jerome Bettis	PIT	110	12.22Arlen Harris	STL	13	13.00Ran Carthon	IND	13	13.00Rock Cartwright	WAS	27	13.50Shaun Alexander	SEA	370	13.70Jamal Robertson	CAR	14	14.00Najeh Davenport	GB	30	15.00Stephen Davis	CAR	180	15.00T.J. Duckett	ATL	121	15.13Sammy Morris	MIA	16	16.00Jarrett Payton	TEN	33	16.50Larry Johnson	KC	336	16.80Corey Dillon	NE	209	17.42Patrick Pass	NE	54	18.00Ryan Moats	PHI	55	18.33LaDainian Tomlinson	SD	339	18.83

 

[jurb26]

So, what happens if Dayne comes on like gang busters in the preseason? Do we see a HUGE spike in his ADP?

If so, not to self: Get Dayne in all drafts prior to the preseason on the cheap.

 

[bagger.]

So, what happens if Dayne comes on like gang busters in the preseason?  Do we see a HUGE spike in his ADP?

If so, not to self:  Get Dayne in all drafts prior to the preseason on the cheap.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Almost certainly.

 

[P Boy]

So, what happens if Dayne comes on like gang busters in the preseason?  Do we see a HUGE spike in his ADP?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Of course. And that still won't guarantee anything. But it will probably mean that he'll start the season locked in as the featured RB in DEN, and will stay that way barring injury or a massive underperformance in the regular season.And I might add that Bell is still going to get his touches. Dayne is still going to be limited by the looks of things if he keeps the job. Shanahan used a legit RBBC last season for the first time in his HC tenure in DEN (because he was forced to do so), and he really seemed to like it.

 

[jurb26]

So, what happens if Dayne comes on like gang busters in the preseason?  Do we see a HUGE spike in his ADP?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Of course. And that still won't guarantee anything. But it will probably mean that he'll start the season locked in as the featured RB in DEN, and will stay that way barring injury or a massive underperformance in the regular season.
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Well, maybe I'll just try to use the same strat I did last year then. Roster Dayne, like I did Anderson last year. Let the hype build up over preseason. Wait till he has his 1st big week.... BAM! Trade is ####.

 

[gang-wars]

If anyone in the NFL can turn Dayne into a fantasy RB, it's Denver and Shanny.

I'm not that sold. But when Shanny told us last year MA was the starter, most people laughed and drafted Bell in the 2nd round. Woops.

 

[T Man]

Not big on Dayne, but have to agree that Denver is likely to rush for 2000 yards this year minimum. If it is a two back set up, Dayne is going to get carries. Not sure he is 2nd round material just yet, but he will have significant value.

 

[CalBear]

That's not the issue.  The issue is that if you look at only high-carry games, you are looking only at games where the running back was effective; you're selecting for successful games.  Every starting RB in the league has better stats when you ignore his low-carry games; look it up.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I have. What you are stating is untrue, if you base the numbers on per carry averages.
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

2005 totals:Alexander: 5.1 ypc average, 3.7 in games with < 20 carries

Barber: 4.7 ypc average, 4.5 in games with < 20

LJ: 5.1, 5.8

Portis: 4.3, 4.0

James: 4.2, 2.5

Tomlinson: 4.3, 3.3

R.Johnson: 4.3, 4.4

Dunn: 5.1, 5.0

T.Jones: 4.3, 4.2

McGahee: 3.8, 3.4

So of the top 10, there was only one player who did significantly better in games with < 20 carries, and that was due to LJ's 9 carries for 110 yards when he wasn't starting. Everyone else is equal or less, in some cases significantly less, when you look only at the low-carry games.

I did it in this direction because it's easier to calculate, but if you look at it the other way, you'll find these backs with better numbers in high-carry games.

 

[JohnnyU]

I luv this sheet.

 

[Tau837]

That's not the issue.  The issue is that if you look at only high-carry games, you are looking only at games where the running back was effective; you're selecting for successful games.  Every starting RB in the league has better stats when you ignore his low-carry games; look it up.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I have. What you are stating is untrue, if you base the numbers on per carry averages.
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

2005 totals:Alexander: 5.1 ypc average, 3.7 in games with < 20 carries

Barber: 4.7 ypc average, 4.5 in games with < 20

LJ: 5.1, 5.8

Portis: 4.3, 4.0

James: 4.2, 2.5

Tomlinson: 4.3, 3.3

R.Johnson: 4.3, 4.4

Dunn: 5.1, 5.0

T.Jones: 4.3, 4.2

McGahee: 3.8, 3.4

So of the top 10, there was only one player who did significantly better in games with < 20 carries, and that was due to LJ's 9 carries for 110 yards when he wasn't starting. Everyone else is equal or less, in some cases significantly less, when you look only at the low-carry games.

I did it in this direction because it's easier to calculate, but if you look at it the other way, you'll find these backs with better numbers in high-carry games.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I'm not necessarily taking the other side in this debate, but your examples don't really create much of a case to support your point.We can throw these out:

Barber: 4.7, 4.5 - at 275 carries, we're talking about 55 yards here - negligible

LJ: 5.1, 5.8 - wrong direction

Portis: 4.3, 4.0 - very close to negligible... only 82.5 yards on 275 carries

James: 4.2, 2.5 - only 2 games with less than 20 carries--weeks 16 and 17. Were the Colts trying in those games? How much did James rest?

R.Johnson: 4.3, 4.4 - negligible (and wrong direction)

Dunn: 5.1, 5.0 - negligible

T.Jones: 4.3, 4.2 - negligible

Let's talk about the others:

Alexander: 5.1, 3.7 - if you actually used 16/17 as your comparison point, since that was Pony Boy's, you'd have only one game for SA below 17 carries. It does not support your point (14 carries, 73 yards)... and it's only one game anyway.

Tomlinson: 4.3, 3.3 - if you actually used 16/17 as your comparison point, since that was Pony Boy's, you'd have only one game for LT below 17 carries. It supports your point (14 carries, 47 yards)... but it's one game.

McGahee: 3.8, 3.4 - OK, you probably do have one guy that truly supports your point.

Is one guy enough to discredit PB's method? And, by the way, how does Buffalo's running game, OL, etc. compare to Denver's? I'd say apples and oranges.

 

[Red Apples]

2006 is the year of the great dayne.

those who dont believe will regret it.

the stars have alligned and dayne will have a career year.

2006 dayne = 2005 anderson.

2006 bell = same old bell.

 

[Simris]

Somebody please send Denver a rb. 

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

*little tiny muffled voice in* cedcobbswk5afterthebye *little tiny muffled voice out*
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I hear that same little voice.

 

[hydroxybear]

at people still believing in Dayne.

this is a recurring joke that never gets old.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

You keep believing that. No one believed Shanahan last year when he said Anderson would be the starter. So, fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice......well, you know how it goes.
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

dayne <> andersonunfortunately the board threads have been pruned or else i would show year after year how people said dayne would finally break out.

fool you once? people have been fooled by dayne 5 years in a row now. it is laughable.

this is who you think should be taken in the mid rounds?

            |          Rushing         |        Receiving        |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+| Year  TM |   G |   Att  Yards    Y/A   TD |   Rec  Yards   Y/R   TD |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+| 2000 nyg |  16 |   228    770    3.4    5 |     3     11   3.7    0 || 2001 nyg |  16 |   180    690    3.8    7 |     8     67   8.4    0 || 2002 nyg |  16 |   125    428    3.4    3 |    11     49   4.5    0 || 2004 nyg |  14 |    52    179    3.4    1 |     1      7   7.0    0 || 2005 den |  10 |    53    270    5.1    1 |     3     17   5.7    0 |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+|  TOTAL   |  72 |   638   2337    3.7   17 |    26    151   5.8    0 |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

2004 - 2005 speaks volumes here. Same amount of carries, but in a better situation. His running style is a good fit in the zone blocking scheme.
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

He still doesn't score any TD's....Never more than 7 in a season!So give him 15-18 carries/game.

Dayne @ 15-18 carries x 16 games x 4.5 ypc = 1080 - 1296 yards.

This is the absolute ceiling I can see for Dayne this year. And this is assuming that lard can average 4.5 ypc over a season....

 

[chedha]

I think what everyone needs to keep in mind is, this is really not about Ron Dayne the player. This is about Ron Dayne the DENVER BRONCO. If Dayne was ANYWHERE else in the league (maybe KC), his name wouldn't even come up. It's that he's in Denver that he's of any interest from a fantasy perspective. If Dayne is filling Anderson's role as the starting running back, then he absolutely has value. It's not hard to figure out that Denver's system produces great fantasy numbers from the RB position every year. Anyone who passes up on Dayne just because he struggled in NY, is hurting their fantasy team IMO. Look at his numbers last year with limited carries. I think a lot of this is paralysis by analysis. People are looking at too many other things, when the guys potential fantasy production is staring them right in the face.

 

[coolnerd]

All I know is that Dayne at 8.10 (me) and 6.02 (the other conference) is better than Bell at 3.01 (other conf) and 6.08 (my conf).

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

That is close call.I think both are going too high currently given we have no idea how it will shake out.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Oh, I have an idea. It may just be worth your while to pay attention to Skeletor this time. He didn't lie about Anderson last year. Yes, he does fib about injuries, but I don't remember the last time he lied about the status of his RBs as far as playing time.
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I am the one who "reached" for Dayne in the other conference. Last year, I bought Shanny's so-called BS about Anderson and he saved my backside. I am buying it again. Denver has been able to plug in pretty muchg anybody (well q. Griffin) and get production. Some of you are acting like we depending on him to RB1.

 

[chedha]

at people still believing in Dayne.

this is a recurring joke that never gets old.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

at people who look at a players history in a bad situation, and think they cannot turn their career around and be successful in a proven system where RB's are known to thrive. Also, with a coaching staff that has proven they can pick backs perfect for the style of play they're looking for.. tatum bell owner

 

[by_the_sea_wannabe]

I'll bet all the "old time Sharks" were pimping Anderson around this time last year too, huh?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Yes, actually.
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

By the way, why on earth were you pimping Anderson last year to begin with? Surely, with all of Shanny's smokescreens, there was no good reason to believe that Anderson would in fact be his guy come training camp.
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Anderson had good value last year. Bell (like bell and dayne this year) was being take way to early.

 

[thatguy]

I'll bet all the "old time Sharks" were pimping Anderson around this time last year too, huh?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Yes, actually.
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

By the way, why on earth were you pimping Anderson last year to begin with? Surely, with all of Shanny's smokescreens, there was no good reason to believe that Anderson would in fact be his guy come training camp.
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Anderson had good value last year. Bell (like bell and dayne this year) was being take way to early.
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Dayne in the fifth round is good value.

 

[SSOG]

If Ron Dayne gets 200 carries in Denver this year, they will finish outside the top 12.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Sig bet?

Wow, talk about slapping Bell in the face.  Throwing the 1 carry as part of the range of carries is pretty disrespectful.

This is along the diaper line Vermeil threw at LJ.  Either Shanahan thinks Bell is a chump or he's trying to light a fire under him.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

You're reading waaaaay too much into that quote. I read it as "Bell is at his best on carries 1-10, and is less effective on carries 11+". Which, statistically speaking, is true.

dayne <> anderson

unfortunately the board threads have been pruned or else i would show year after year how people said dayne would finally break out. 

fool you once?  people have been fooled by dayne 5 years in a row now.  it is laughable.

this is who you think should be taken in the mid rounds?

            |          Rushing         |        Receiving        |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+| Year  TM |   G |   Att  Yards    Y/A   TD |   Rec  Yards   Y/R   TD |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+| 2000 nyg |  16 |   228    770    3.4    5 |     3     11   3.7    0 || 2001 nyg |  16 |   180    690    3.8    7 |     8     67   8.4    0 || 2002 nyg |  16 |   125    428    3.4    3 |    11     49   4.5    0 || 2004 nyg |  14 |    52    179    3.4    1 |     1      7   7.0    0 || 2005 den |  10 |    53    270    5.1    1 |     3     17   5.7    0 |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+|  TOTAL   |  72 |   638   2337    3.7   17 |    26    151   5.8    0 |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

People who said Dayne would break out last year were ignoring one huge fact. He was the BACKUP RUNNINGBACK. And he would always be unless Anderson got injured. Shanny was very very clear on that. The only way the backup breaks out is if the starter gets replaced.This year, Dayne is the starting RB. Different situation, different results. Unless you mean to imply that Dayne will only get 53 carries again this season.

Taking Shanahan's word at face value. 

Every year he is evasive with the press, not just around draft time, i don't know why, but he is.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I hate people who spread lies and misinformation by spouting it off as fact after hearing someone else spout it off as fact.Give me *ONE* example of when Shanahan was deceptive, or lied about his team. The *ONLY* example I can think of is when he lied DURING A GAME about one of Plummer's injuries to protect Plummer in case he had to go back in. He came clean immediately after the game.

Other than that one instance, I can't think of an example of Shanny lying. He said Mike Anderson was the starter. Check. He said after Anderson got injured in week 1 that his carries would be scaled back for a week or two but he was still the starter. Check. He said after Dayne and then Bell came on like gangbusters that Anderson was still the starter. Check. When Watts slid down the depth chart everyone assumed it was a motivational ploy... but then he opened the season right where he was during the preseason. No motivational ploy, just honest assessment.

I would go so far as to say that Shanahan is one of the most honest and forthcoming coaches in the entire league. Will he give his game plan to you every single week? No, he's not stupid, he knows his opponents read the internet, too. The thing is, no other coach gives their game plan to you, either, and I don't see anyone complaining about anyone else (except for Belichick, who genuinely *IS* deceptive. And Fisher, too).

Irrational hate?  No hatred, just have no place for him on a fantasy roster and think it is hilarious that people are still buying in.  This is the same group that thought Brandon Jacobs would steal Tiki's touches I bet.

...

at you comparing Shanahan's NFL knowledge to mine as if it is relevant to this discussion.  The fact that you are believing Shanahan hook line and sinker is great.

  Keep up the good work in the Shark Pool.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

First off... Brandon Jacobs *DID* steal Tiki's touches last season. Especially at the goal line. Did you even watch the Giants games? Don't you remember how much everyone was flaming Coughlin for constantly sending Jacobs in at the goal line over Tiki?Second off... if Pony Boy has a fault, I would say that he's a little too low on Shanahan. He constantly bashes Shanny's choices and considers him one of the bottom 50% GMs in the league (I think he's clearly a top-10 GM as well as coach- the records speak for themselves).

If you're going to criticise a member, get their prejudices straight.

Looking only at high-carry games is complete bunk; all backs perform better in high-carry games than low-carry games, and Tiki Barber on the same team as Dayne outperformed him by something like 1.5 yards per carry if you consider only high-carry games.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Ummm... it's *not* bunk, if the premise is that Dayne will be getting a lot of high-carry games.Let's assume that backs *DO* perform better in high-carry games. Well now, what better data set to use when we're trying to figure out how Dayne will do next year once he starts getting a lot of high-carry games? Would you prefer we use his data from games where he has 5 or fewer carries in order to predict how he'll perform with 17 carries a game?

SSOG was not the only one.  Just vastly more vocal then anyone else.  As a matter of fact, I can't recall him even posting on anything else.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I posted a lot of other stuff, but mostly regarding Denver, since that's what I knew and followed. I was the guy who put forth the whole "Denver struggles rushing against the 3-4" theory.There weren't a lot of posts that didn't somehow deal with the Denver Broncos, though... just because I assume that there are a lot more knowledgeable people who could give far better insight than I could.

So, what happens if Dayne comes on like gang busters in the preseason?  Do we see a HUGE spike in his ADP?

If so, not to self:  Get Dayne in all drafts prior to the preseason on the cheap.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Here's what you look at during the preseason. Ignore all Denver RB production entirely. Focus on 3 things (listed from least to most precise)-#1- The carry distribution. If one back is getting noticeably more carries in the first 3 games, that's likely going to be the guy once the season starts. Not an exact science, since Shanahan likes to give everyone a shot to get some game experience, but a pretty good indicator.

#2- Who starts game 3 in the preseason. Game 3 is considered the final tuneup. Shanahan puts all the starters in for the first half (sometimes a little bit longer) and lets them get in one last rehearsal before the season. After that, the backups come in. Game 4 is dedicated entirely to evaluating players on the bubble and making the final roster cuts.

#3- Special teams. If a back is playing on special teams, he's not the featured back. Last preseason, Bell and Dayne played special teams and Anderson did not. That wasn't a coincidence.

I think the perfect scenario, as far as I'm concerned, is for Dayne to get 50% of the carries (with the other half going 25/25 to Bell and Cobbs), to sit in week 4, and to not play a single down on STs, but to average 3.4 yards per carry and not score once. That's all I need to see to be 100% confident that Dayne is "the guy"... and it'll also drop his value through the floor, which means I can get him for the cheap.

 

[SSOG]

Dayne in the fifth round is good value.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Agreed. Any Denver RB who is likely to get 225+ carries (~14 a game) should be valued in the first 3 rounds. Possibly even the first 2 rounds. End of story. I think the lowest a back has finished the season ranked after receiving 225+ carries in Denver was Reuben Droughns (who finished as the 15th ranked RB, iirc). Since there are ALWAYS at least 15 RBs selected in the first 2 rounds, an RB who ranks 15th or higher should obviously have at least a 2nd round worth, right?

 

[P Boy]

Second off... if Pony Boy has a fault, I would say that he's a little too low on Shanahan. He constantly bashes Shanny's choices and considers him one of the bottom 50% GMs in the league (I think he's clearly a top-10 GM as well as coach- the records speak for themselves).If you're going to criticise a member, get their prejudices straight.

That's probably an accurate assessment of my opinion of Shanhan as a GM. As a coach, I have very few qualms withn him with the exception of an occassional brain fart at the end of close games that DEN is leading - but in honesty, he also is not afraid to take chances in close games - which I love - & I'll willingly admit that he has succeeded more often than failed when he's made aggressive decisions late in games.I'll also given him huge props for his draft this year. Contrary to most years, he really did well top to bottom this year In most years I'd be all for Shanahan giving up his 1st rounder for a 4th, a 5th, and 2 6ths - he really seems to make hay with those lower picks, but his 1st rounders are terrible. This year he just was on top of the entire draft right from the start - even before it started, in fact. Even if Cutler busts, which I don't think he'll do, I'll still proclaim this a great draft for him, one of the best I've seen by any GM in recent years.I'd grade Shanahan in the middle of the pack as a GM, but this year he shined. Now I've got less to ##### about with him. Damnation.