It's amazing Alex Smith was #1 overall and Rodgers was #23. If ever there was evidence of an imperfect drafting system, that's it.
Nobody has a clue what Rodgers would have looked like without those years of seasoning, though. His throwing motion, footwork, and pretty much everything was different at Cal. He looked like a totally different guy. If he had been thrown to the wolves with 6 different OC's in 7 years and Smith had sat for 3+ years and had the same coaching staff the entire time, who knows.
I don't think Smith would be Rodgers in the scenario I outlined above, but I don't think Rodgers would be Rodgers either.