Denver pass defense... (1 Viewer)

[Evilgrin 72]

I see a lot of sites telling folks to bench Big Ben and/or Santonio this week because of Bailey and the Denver pass D. However, a quick trip to MYFBG shows Denver is actually allowing the 10th most PPG this year to opposing QBs (based on 1 pt/50 yds passing, 6 pt TD, just for reference.)

Anyone think benching your QBs or WRs against Denver automatically is a poor idea? Perhaps if you have a clear cut QB1 that you feel will have Bailey in his jock all game, but I see people sitting QBs against Denver and I don't think it has a foundation in reality.

 

[SteelerMurf]

Denver's safeties are a very big weakness on that defense. I expect Miller to have a good week (and Spaeth). I don't think Ben shied away from throwing to Bailey's side last year or in the 2005 AFC championship game when Wilson juked Bailey for a TD .

 

[Sack-Religious]

I agree with you. Champ Bailey is good. That much is inarguable. However, the Denver rush D is so abysmal that teams don't need to pass on the Broncos thus inflating their pass D stats.

If Bailey's injured quad keeps him from playing or limits his effectiveness, that's a large boost to the PIT passing game. Bly is a solid corner, but gambles and can be burned because of this tendency.

That being said, the weather forecast does not really look conducive to passing the ball a lot (which the Steelers, really haven't done a lot of so far this season anyway) and FWP looks poised to explode so I would temper my expectations for the PIT passing attack more because of the weather and their strong running game, more than my "fear" of the Denver pass defence.

If Ben is your QB1, I don't think you sit him for a marginal fill-in just based on this matchup. Likewise with Ward or Holmes. The Steelers will be able to move the ball on Denver, and regardless of weather, Ward, Holmes and Miller could all be effective inside the redzone.

 

[Kuz]

I see a lot of sites telling folks to bench Big Ben and/or Santonio this week because of Bailey and the Denver pass D. However, a quick trip to MYFBG shows Denver is actually allowing the 10th most PPG this year to opposing QBs (based on 1 pt/50 yds passing, 6 pt TD, just for reference.)Anyone think benching your QBs or WRs against Denver automatically is a poor idea? Perhaps if you have a clear cut QB1 that you feel will have Bailey in his jock all game, but I see people sitting QBs against Denver and I don't think it has a foundation in reality.

I think the other way to shy away from the passing game this week is because Denver is horrible at stopping the run & I think Parker will be running wild this week. I think Ben will throw his normal 200 yards & 1 TD.. I'm benching him in both of my leagues because of better options.. I am starting Holmes in one league so I sort of agree with you..

 

[Evilgrin 72]

I agree with you. Champ Bailey is good. That much is inarguable. However, the Denver rush D is so abysmal that teams don't need to pass on the Broncos thus inflating their pass D stats. If Bailey's injured quad keeps him from playing or limits his effectiveness, that's a large boost to the PIT passing game. Bly is a solid corner, but gambles and can be burned because of this tendency.That being said, the weather forecast does not really look conducive to passing the ball a lot (which the Steelers, really haven't done a lot of so far this season anyway) and FWP looks poised to explode so I would temper my expectations for the PIT passing attack more because of the weather and their strong running game, more than my "fear" of the Denver pass defence.If Ben is your QB1, I don't think you sit him for a marginal fill-in just based on this matchup. Likewise with Ward or Holmes. The Steelers will be able to move the ball on Denver, and regardless of weather, Ward, Holmes and Miller could all be effective inside the redzone.

My other option is starting Garrard Monday night vs. Indy, and I was all set to do that until I looked at the fantasy ppg being allowed by each defense - Indy allows about 5 ppg fewer than Denver, which really surprised me.

 

[Evilgrin 72]

I see a lot of sites telling folks to bench Big Ben and/or Santonio this week because of Bailey and the Denver pass D. However, a quick trip to MYFBG shows Denver is actually allowing the 10th most PPG this year to opposing QBs (based on 1 pt/50 yds passing, 6 pt TD, just for reference.)Anyone think benching your QBs or WRs against Denver automatically is a poor idea? Perhaps if you have a clear cut QB1 that you feel will have Bailey in his jock all game, but I see people sitting QBs against Denver and I don't think it has a foundation in reality.

I think the other way to shy away from the passing game this week is because Denver is horrible at stopping the run & I think Parker will be running wild this week. I think Ben will throw his normal 200 yards & 1 TD.. I'm benching him in both of my leagues because of better options.. I am starting Holmes in one league so I sort of agree with you..

I've been thinking about this as well, but sometimes the running game going nuts like that actually aids Roethlisberger, as they've thrown quite a bit in the red zone this year.

 

[Sack-Religious]

I agree with you. Champ Bailey is good. That much is inarguable. However, the Denver rush D is so abysmal that teams don't need to pass on the Broncos thus inflating their pass D stats. If Bailey's injured quad keeps him from playing or limits his effectiveness, that's a large boost to the PIT passing game. Bly is a solid corner, but gambles and can be burned because of this tendency.That being said, the weather forecast does not really look conducive to passing the ball a lot (which the Steelers, really haven't done a lot of so far this season anyway) and FWP looks poised to explode so I would temper my expectations for the PIT passing attack more because of the weather and their strong running game, more than my "fear" of the Denver pass defence.If Ben is your QB1, I don't think you sit him for a marginal fill-in just based on this matchup. Likewise with Ward or Holmes. The Steelers will be able to move the ball on Denver, and regardless of weather, Ward, Holmes and Miller could all be effective inside the redzone.

My other option is starting Garrard Monday night vs. Indy, and I was all set to do that until I looked at the fantasy ppg being allowed by each defense - Indy allows about 5 ppg fewer than Denver, which really surprised me.

I might be going against the grain here, but I think I'd go with Ben. IMO, he's got more playmakers at both the WR and RB spots who are capable from scoring anywhere on the field. Garrard's got MJD, and to some degree, Taylor, but doesn't have much at WR. Whereas, Ben's got Holmes and FWP as homerun threats. Miller's proven that he can make big plays and Ward can bust a long one, as well.The weather might end up being the deciding factor if I were you, though.

 

[moleculo]

The weakness to the Den passing D is covering a dynamic TE. The Broncos miss Sam Brandon - he used to do a hack of a job on Gates/Gonzo - I never oculd figure out why they let him go.

The Broncos held the Colts WR's to 8-70-1, while allowed the Colts TE's to get 8-109-2. Vs SD, the WR's (VJackson) grabbed 3-84-1, but allowed Gates to go for 7-113-1.

Overall, the oppostions WR's have been held in check but TE's have been allowed to roam free.

to the Stiller homers> how do you feel about Miller and company?

 

[5-ish Finkle]

to the Stiller homers> how do you feel about Miller and company?

Steelers TEs have been targeted a LOT in the red zone thus far, and Miller's targets have gone up overall the past couple games, IIRC. Spaeth had been dinged, but I believe was practicing this week.Miller should be a pretty good play this week. Spaeth, if you're desperate, may get one of his "2 catches for 3 yards and a TD" weeks, but I wouldn't want to rely on that.

 

[TheCommish]

I see a lot of sites telling folks to bench Big Ben and/or Santonio this week because of Bailey and the Denver pass D. However, a quick trip to MYFBG shows Denver is actually allowing the 10th most PPG this year to opposing QBs (based on 1 pt/50 yds passing, 6 pt TD, just for reference.)Anyone think benching your QBs or WRs against Denver automatically is a poor idea? Perhaps if you have a clear cut QB1 that you feel will have Bailey in his jock all game, but I see people sitting QBs against Denver and I don't think it has a foundation in reality.

I think the other way to shy away from the passing game this week is because Denver is horrible at stopping the run & I think Parker will be running wild this week. I think Ben will throw his normal 200 yards & 1 TD.. I'm benching him in both of my leagues because of better options.. I am starting Holmes in one league so I sort of agree with you..

I don't have him on my team, but if I needed a bye week filler and Najeh Davenport was on my roster, I wouldn't hesitate to start him. FWP will put up great numbers, but Najeh will clean up on the scraps. No need for Pittsburgh to go airborne in this game with the horrible Denver run defense.

 

[Ditkaless Wonders]

Why would anybody throw against Denver. Until Bates gets that run defense squared away handing the ball to a back is like money in the bank.

That said it seems to me that in Miami, and again in Green Bay Bates coached defenses finally "got" the run scheme around week 7 or 8. Having just gotten done with ttheir bye I suppose their is some hope the run defense will be more stout.

As for the pass defense it is ill advised to attack Bailey. Bly, on the other hand is slower than advertised and takes huge risks. He can be owned on double move routes, and with Denvers lack of a consistent pass rush there will be time for many of these. Denver is also very susceptible to damage by T.E.'s and backs right now. Their safeties and linebackers are often out of position and missing assignments.

 

[coachjim]

As a wise man once said "When you throw three things can happen and two of them are bad". With that in mind Denver is so easy to run against why throw? Dever is allowing 187 yards rushing a game and dead last in rush defense. If Roth throws 20 times I would be surprised.

 

[Tom Baker]

If Roth throws 20 times I would be surprised.

But there's always the chance that 4 of them will be touchdowns . . .

 

[stevegamer]

Denver can be thrown on - it's just the corners that are good. Safeties/LB's are mediocre in coverage. You want to create mismatches via personnel groupings where they stay in a base defnse with just the 2 corners, and then spread them out so that one of the safteties or or LB's has to cover in space.

 

[coachjim]

Denver has allowed only 7 TD's throught he air all year. I would think 1 or 2 is possible. I am benching Ben for Hass this week. That said he will probably throw 4.

 

[Evilgrin 72]

The weakness to the Den passing D is covering a dynamic TE. The Broncos miss Sam Brandon - he used to do a hack of a job on Gates/Gonzo - I never oculd figure out why they let him go.The Broncos held the Colts WR's to 8-70-1, while allowed the Colts TE's to get 8-109-2. Vs SD, the WR's (VJackson) grabbed 3-84-1, but allowed Gates to go for 7-113-1.Overall, the oppostions WR's have been held in check but TE's have been allowed to roam free. to the Stiller homers> how do you feel about Miller and company?

Good info here.

 

[Evilgrin 72]

Why would anybody throw against Denver. Until Bates gets that run defense squared away handing the ball to a back is like money in the bank.That said it seems to me that in Miami, and again in Green Bay Bates coached defenses finally "got" the run scheme around week 7 or 8. Having just gotten done with ttheir bye I suppose their is some hope the run defense will be more stout.As for the pass defense it is ill advised to attack Bailey. Bly, on the other hand is slower than advertised and takes huge risks. He can be owned on double move routes, and with Denvers lack of a consistent pass rush there will be time for many of these. Denver is also very susceptible to damage by T.E.'s and backs right now. Their safeties and linebackers are often out of position and missing assignments.

And here.

 

[Evilgrin 72]

I may go with Garrard based solely on the fact that the Jags are likely to fall behind early and have to abandon the run. Playing Indy on Monday night can do that to you. I don't want this to turn into a WDIS thread, though, although that was the genesis of it. I'm really wondering where the Broncos pass D falls in the spectrum of stats (unimpressive) vs. perception (one of the best) Seems like the truth, as usual, is somewhere in the middle.

I imagine the Steelers are going to run a lot given the weather and the state of Denver's run D. The real question is whether or not they can be effective doing so. If Roethlisberger only throws 18 times, he may not pile up yardage, but could be a good start if Pittsburgh gets to the red zone 4-5 times on the strength of the running game, as opportunities will arise. The real question is whether the Steelers offense as a UNIT can create a facsimile of what San Diego did two weeks ago.

 

[BusMan]

The weakness to the Den passing D is covering a dynamic TE. The Broncos miss Sam Brandon - he used to do a hack of a job on Gates/Gonzo - I never oculd figure out why they let him go.

Brandon's recovery from ACL surgery wasn't going well. In fact, he failed his pre-camp physical.Throughout camp, I heard that the Broncos' coaching staff was very pleased with Cox, Abdullah, and Cargile as young, developing safeties behind the veterans Lynch and Ferguson. Unfortunately, it doesn't appear that any of them fill the big nickel role Sam Brandon filled so well.

To make this post relevant to the discussion at hand: yes, the Broncos pass defense is good, but not good enough to warrant benching Big Ben or Miller unless you have much better options. I'd strongly consider benching Ward and/or Holmes, though.

 

[BusMan]

I may go with Garrard based solely on the fact that the Jags are likely to fall behind early and have to abandon the run. Playing Indy on Monday night can do that to you. I don't want this to turn into a WDIS thread, though, although that was the genesis of it. I'm really wondering where the Broncos pass D falls in the spectrum of stats (unimpressive) vs. perception (one of the best) Seems like the truth, as usual, is somewhere in the middle.

I imagine the Steelers are going to run a lot given the weather and the state of Denver's run D. The real question is whether or not they can be effective doing so. If Roethlisberger only throws 18 times, he may not pile up yardage, but could be a good start if Pittsburgh gets to the red zone 4-5 times on the strength of the running game, as opportunities will arise. The real question is whether the Steelers offense as a UNIT can create a facsimile of what San Diego did two weeks ago.

Football Outsider's unique stats seem to indicate the Broncos are below average in both phases of defense. They seem to do better against #2 WR than #1 WR, but it's unclear whom Bailey is covering and whom Bly is covering. I would suspect most offenses line up their #1 to the left, to take advantage of Bly's non-superhuman abilities. I'll be paying attention to that this Sunday night.

 

[BusMan]

Denver can be thrown on - it's just the corners that are good. Safeties/LB's are mediocre in coverage. You want to create mismatches via personnel groupings where they stay in a base defnse with just the 2 corners, and then spread them out so that one of the safteties or or LB's has to cover in space.

Agreed. Webster is playing out of position at SLB, while Gold has been beat more than a few times this year at WLB. I've heard plenty of clamoring from Broncos' fans to move Webster inside and slide D.J. Williams back out to SLB, but I doubt it'll happen. Shanahan usually lets his DC's take a year or two to fully implement their respective schemes, although it's hard to argue the Broncos' defense is doing anything but regressing right now. I suspect Roeth to Miller will happen more than once off play action, considering the LBs will be forced to stay home and respect the run. I think the Broncos can afford to lose through the air, but to let the Steelers run all over them, well, they might as well just slap all their season ticket holders in the face.

 

[Tom Baker]

I also own Garrard (and Brees).

I'm starting Ben, without hesitation.