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Derrick Henry: The greatest wasted fantasy performance in history? (1 Viewer)

Z

zftcg

Footballguy
As I write this, Derrick Henry has 238 yards rushing and 4 TDs, good for 47.8 points. According to Yahoo, he is being started in 17% of leagues. Not sure how to compare those two numbers -- maybe multiply the points by the percentage of rosters not starting him. So 47.8 x 0.83 = 39.7 wasted fantasy points.

I'd be really curious to see if anyone's ever topped that number. I remember Jerome Harrison coming out of nowhere in 2009 to rush for 286/3 (he also caught 2/12). That would mean the same 47.8 points in standard scoring (49.8 PPR). No idea what percentage of leagues he was started in.

 
zftcg said:
As I write this, Derrick Henry has 238 yards rushing and 4 TDs, good for 47.8 points. According to Yahoo, he is being started in 17% of leagues. Not sure how to compare those two numbers -- maybe multiply the points by the percentage of rosters not starting him. So 47.8 x 0.83 = 39.7 wasted fantasy points.

I'd be really curious to see if anyone's ever topped that number. I remember Jerome Harrison coming out of nowhere in 2009 to rush for 286/3 (he also caught 2/12). That would mean the same 47.8 points in standard scoring (49.8 PPR). No idea what percentage of leagues he was started in.
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It's been a while, but not sure how many people were starting Anquan Boldin in his first career start.  47.7 if it was PPR, which was also less common back in those days.

Only one I can think of that comes close, since I'm assuming most crazy-scoring QB games would still have had moderately high start %'s.

 
If you’re counting QBs, I’m sure there’s been a ton over the years, but the one I remember is Billy Volek. He was Steve McNair’s backup, and played in week 14 (fantasy playoffs) after McNair got hurt. He threw for something ridiculous like 450 and 4. 

 
Arodin said:
It's been a while, but not sure how many people were starting Anquan Boldin in his first career start.  47.7 if it was PPR, which was also less common back in those days.

Only one I can think of that comes close, since I'm assuming most crazy-scoring QB games would still have had moderately high start %'s.
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That's right! I believe he had 4 tuddys that game, no?

 
Arodin said:
It's been a while, but not sure how many people were starting Anquan Boldin in his first career start.  47.7 if it was PPR, which was also less common back in those days.

Only one I can think of that comes close, since I'm assuming most crazy-scoring QB games would still have had moderately high start %'s.
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Yeah, was wondering about the QB thing. Maybe some backup who came in and had a huge game? I remember when Nick Foles threw for 7 TDs in 2013. But I'm pretty sure he had a semi-decent start percentage (mostly because he was started against me).

 
What about Volek's WR? That 6-5 white dude? Totally forget his name.  Didn't he kinda come outta nowhere for a few game stretch?

 
Unfortunately he was on my bench on my teams that are alive in these contests but for some people this game could not come at a better time.

Checked one national contest that has close to 850 teams chasing $200K and another that has around 1600 teams chasing $250K and in both of those contests each one had 8 teams that started Derrick Henry.  A player limited owned/started who puts down a game like that is exactly what you hope to get so could not have come at a better time for those teams, and for at least a few of those teams he appears to have been the replacement for Gordon or Conner.

 
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Corey Dillon topped it in his rookie year vs. the Titans (4 TD's, 275 yards or so). I know because I owned him and that helped me win my first fantasy title. :yes:  

Also, Jamaal Charles had that crazy awesome game vs the Raiders a few years ago. 

 
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And to think how much more he could have had if he wanted it. He had 219 with 5 minutes to go in the 3rd. And there was obviously that goal-to-go situation where he didn't come in until 3rd down.

This could have pretty easily been a 250+, 5 TD game. Kind of a bummer for us fans of football that he/they didn't keep the pedal down.

 
Grigs Allmoon said:
And to think how much more he could have had if he wanted it. He had 219 with 5 minutes to go in the 3rd. And there was obviously that goal-to-go situation where he didn't come in until 3rd down.

This could have pretty easily been a 250+, 5 TD game. Kind of a bummer for us fans of football that he/they didn't keep the pedal down.
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Then again, they could have called back the 99-yard run for the blatant facemask he committed.

 
Charles, Jamaal KCC RB
at Raiders Sun 4:05 p.m. ET
KCC 56, OAK 31

24.004 Receiving TDs

8.008 Receptions 

6.001 Rushing TDs 

19.50195 Receiving Yards 

2.0020 Rushing Yards 

0.000 Fumbles Lost (to Opponent) 

59.50Subtotal

#1 Scoring day in our league. 

 
Man In The Box said:
If you’re counting QBs, I’m sure there’s been a ton over the years, but the one I remember is Billy Volek. He was Steve McNair’s backup, and played in week 14 (fantasy playoffs) after McNair got hurt. He threw for something ridiculous like 450 and 4. 
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He won me that week and lives on as a legend that is still brought up at our drafts.

 
zftcg said:
As I write this, Derrick Henry has 238 yards rushing and 4 TDs, good for 47.8 points. According to Yahoo, he is being started in 17% of leagues. Not sure how to compare those two numbers -- maybe multiply the points by the percentage of rosters not starting him. So 47.8 x 0.83 = 39.7 wasted fantasy points.
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And that 17% is a very generous number. Yahoo leagues are full of people who aren’t active or set a Week 1 lineup and never touch that team again. I’d bet the majority of that 17% came from people who drafted him as their RB2, had him as their starter in their Week 1 lineup, and never looked at that team again. I would bet the percentage of active people using him this week is easily under 5%.

 
Lionsfan011 said:
And that 17% is a very generous number. Yahoo leagues are full of people who aren’t active or set a Week 1 lineup and never touch that team again. I’d bet the majority of that 17% came from people who drafted him as their RB2, had him as their starter in their Week 1 lineup, and never looked at that team again. I would bet the percentage of active people using him this week is easily under 5%.
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Not sure how Yahoo calculates it, but I remember hearing this discussed on the ESPN Fantasy Focus podcast a few years ago, and they said those percentages were actually not from all leagues but rather a representative sample that deliberately excludes lapsed leagues (though I suppose it wouldn't necessarily exclude lapsed teams in otherwise active leagues).

Also, if you left Derrick Henry in your lineup all season, there's a very good chance you didn't make the playoffs.

 
Clinton Portis led the way to my first championship years ago.  Something like 55 standard points.  When I logged on to check my scores I was certain it was some sort of error.

 
davearm said:
Clinton Portis led the way to my first championship years ago.  Something like 55 standard points.  When I logged on to check my scores I was certain it was some sort of error.
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When Jamaal Charles had his famous 2013 game, his first two TD receptions came on 49- and 39-yard passes. I was tracking the game online and initially assumed they had just adjusted the yardage of the first TD.

 
Arodin said:
Volek was a popular spot start for his big game.  Not sure about Foles...
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I started Foles that day, IIRC. And lost in the semis or quarters that year because there was like two feet of snow in Philly and he never threw the ball. And Charles. 

He was awesome that year.  

 
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zftcg said:
When Jamaal Charles had his famous 2013 game, his first two TD receptions came on 49- and 39-yard passes. I was tracking the game online and initially assumed they had just adjusted the yardage of the first TD.
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I played against Charles that day, too. No lie. It was an avalanche. 

:lmao:

 
i had Shaun Alexander, it was a Sunday night game on ESPN. 

also had Vick when he scored 70+ points, not sure what year it was, but he outscored the other team by himself.

neither were unpopular starts, but felt like sharing regardless.  

 
zftcg said:
Yeah, was wondering about the QB thing. Maybe some backup who came in and had a huge game? I remember when Nick Foles threw for 7 TDs in 2013. But I'm pretty sure he had a semi-decent start percentage (mostly because he was started against me).
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I was one of those people who started him and don't regret it. I won my league thanks to Foles that year. 

 
DJackson10 said:
I was one of those people who started him and don't regret it. I won my league thanks to Foles that year. 
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Even through the snow game?? 

eta* Maybe the snow game was another year. I'm looking at the 2013 year and not finding it.

eta* No, it was. Wk 14. He had a 0.0 passer rating.  

 
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rockaction said:
Even through the snow game?? 

eta* Maybe the snow game was another year. I'm looking at the 2013 year and not finding it.  
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Same year I had him and Rodgers and for some reason started Foles over Rodgers. I guess I should've been more blatant but Foles game that day ended up being a tiebreaker against the guy I beat. Do to the rankings for the playoffs that guy played a guy who if I lost would've played who would've beaten me too. So essentially Foles helped me win the league thanks to the tiebreaker on season record. I ended up finishing the year with Phillip Rivers because of Rodgers breaking his collarbone. Sorry for the confusion on the initial post.

 
DJackson10 said:
Same year I had him and Rodgers and for some reason started Foles over Rodgers. I guess I should've been more blatant but Foles game that day ended up being a tiebreaker against the guy I beat. Do to the rankings for the playoffs that guy played a guy who if I lost would've played who would've beaten me too. So essentially Foles helped me win the league thanks to the tiebreaker on season record. I ended up finishing the year with Phillip Rivers because of Rodgers breaking his collarbone. Sorry for the confusion on the initial post.
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Gotcha. 

Cause that snow combined with Charles eliminated me and quickfast. Back then we played sixteen teams, no byes, and I got my clock cleaned.  Year over.

eta* Oh, and sorry if I came off as questioning you. I remember going up against Charles. I was sort of thinking subconsciously just now that everybody must have.  It was more than possible to absorb the snow game. Foles went for 179 yards and a touchdown. That's about 11 points standard. You easily could have withstood that.  

eta2* You could not have overcome Kaepernick's 2 against Chicago in Wk 16 in 2016. I saw it snowing on television, remembered Foles, and subbed him out for Stafford. Titletown! 

 
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rockaction said:
Gotcha. 

Cause that snow combined with Charles eliminated me and quickfast. Back then we played sixteen teams, no byes, and I got my clock cleaned.  Year over.  
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My team was pretty good that year. I had Gronk in his PrimeI think Den D, I had Jordy Nelson and I forget who else. But my team was able to absorb Aaron Rodgers out for the year. I can' remember what week Rodgers got hut but remember I had Foles in there that OAK game for one reason of Arod hurt, bad match up or bye. Rivers was somehow cut for whatever reason too so I grabbed him as the back up to Foles.

 
I owned Clinton Portis in a keeper league early in his career when he had a 5 TD game.  Scored more that 50 pts.   I don't remember who it was against.

 
In my 16 team Dynasty league that has been playing for 29 straight Years, with 10 Original Owners, I started Henry over Dalvin Cook.....  Here is the research I did, and you can do it as well.  When the Titians are favored, Start Henry.  When they are a Vegas underdog, sit him on your bench.  When the Titians are favored, he scores., When they are not,he sucks.

 
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rockaction said:
That's awesome. What was your thought process in doing that? 
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Hi Rockaction, I ran the numbers.  When the Titians are favored, Henry goes off, when Vegas says the Titians are underdogs, Henry is a dog.  Run it yourself.  Every time the Titians are favored Henry goes off.

 
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zftcg said:
As I write this, Derrick Henry has 238 yards rushing and 4 TDs, good for 47.8 points. According to Yahoo, he is being started in 17% of leagues. Not sure how to compare those two numbers -- maybe multiply the points by the percentage of rosters not starting him. So 47.8 x 0.83 = 39.7 wasted fantasy points.

I'd be really curious to see if anyone's ever topped that number. I remember Jerome Harrison coming out of nowhere in 2009 to rush for 286/3 (he also caught 2/12). That would mean the same 47.8 points in standard scoring (49.8 PPR). No idea what percentage of leagues he was started in.
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My guess is that of those 17% of leagues where Henry was started, the majority was  by owners who are out of the playoffs.  I would be surprised if Henry was started in more than 5% of leagues on a playoff team.  Most playoffs start week 14 so anywhere from 40-60% of teams are eliminated and teams that are in the playoffs likely have more than 2 rbs they will use ahead of Henry.  Just this past week we had Jackson, Wilson and Samuels that could have been picked up and likely played ahead of Henry.

 
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CaptainJT said:
My guess is that of those 17% of leagues where Henry was started, the marjority was  by owners who are out of the playoffs.  I would be surprised if Henry was started in more than 5% of leagues on a playoff team.  Most playoffs start week 14 so anywhere from 40-60% of teams are eliminated and teams that are in the playoffs likely have more than 2 rbs they will use ahead of Henry.  Just this past week we had Jackson, Wilson and Samuels that could have been picked up and likely played ahead of Henry.
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Hi Captain, anyone in the playoffs with Henry on their bench should have started him this week.  The Titians were favored by 5.  Henry Goes off when the Vegas line favors the Titians,  I started him over Dalvin Cook.  If the Titians are favored, Henry is a quality play..

 
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Mike Anderson said:
Hi Captain, anyone in the playoffs with Henry on their bench should have started him this week.  The Titians where favored by 5.  Henry Goes off when the Vegas line favors the Titians,  I started him over Dalvin Cook.  If the Titians are favored, Henry is a quality play..
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The fact that you started Henry over Cook is amazing.  Congrats.  You went with your gut and it paid off.  But to say anyone should have started Henry is a bit unfair. There isnt a single expert on Fantasy Pros that would agree with you.  (Just checked) Fantasy Pros has Dalvin Cook as a 100% start over Henry.  Their average rankings are #15 and #38 with 117 of 117 experts putting Cook ahead of Henry.  You were bold and will likely advance because of it!

I think Henry got lucky with the gameflow.  Early in the game it was all Dion Lewis.  Then the Titans scored and Jacksonville's offense was pathetic (Kessler...).  Tennessee went into a ball-control, time-consuming, "run out the clock" (in the 2nd quarter!) mode and Henry was the beneficiary.  He had a couple amazing runs against a team that is already planning their offseason vacations.  

Now maybe you have reached a conclusion that no one else has yet, or developed a new criteria or statistic.  I think this is something you should delve further into and see if there is coorelation with any other players that fit this same criteria.  Good luck!

 
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CaptainJT said:
The fact that you started Henry over Cook is amazing.  Congrats.  You went with your gut and it paid off.  But to say anyone should have started Henry is a bit unfair. There isnt a single expert on Fantasy Pros that would agree with you.  (Just checked) Fantasy Pros has Dalvin Cook as a 100% start over Henry.  Their average rankings are #15 and #38 with 117 of 117 experts putting Cook ahead of Henry.  You were bold and will likely advance because of it!

I think Henry got lucky with the gameflow.  Early in the game it was all Dion Lewis.  Then the Titans scored and Jacksonville's offense was pathetic (Kessler...).  Tennessee went into a ball-control, time-consuming, "run out the clock" (in the 2nd quarter!) mode and Henry was the beneficiary.  He had a couple amazing runs against a team that is already planning their offseason vacations.  

Now maybe you have reached a conclusion that no one else has yet, or developed a new criteria or statistic.  I think this is something you should look delve further into and see if there is coorelation with any other players that fit this same criteria.  Good luck!
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Hi Captain, I used to work for Footballguys, specifically as the Original Dynasty Expert.  I was an "expert" who wrote for Multiple Magazine as an Expert drafter and an article contributor in National Magazines and held national "Fantasy Football Expert" status for years and years.  Perhaps you bought Magazines that I wrote for back in the 2000s? Specifically Fantasy Football Index, but others as well. I am member 34 on these message boards.  I hired many of the Dynasty Experts you now follow on FootBallGuys.  I was/am Drugrunner, and developed the Minimal WR strategy back in the very early days of Fantasy Football.  Search Drugrunner on these forums.

Henry is a dog when the Titians are an underdog, and a stud when the Titians are favored.  Run the numbers.

 
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I'm curious what % of those 17% were from playoff teams.  Most teams that own him didn't make it, and those that did, likely did so despite him and didn't start him.  Have to think the percentage of playoff teams that started him to be very low.

 
Mike Anderson said:
Hi Captain, I used to work for Footballguys, specifically as the Original Dynasty Expert.  I was an "expert: who wrote for Multiple Magazine as an Expert drafter and an article contributor in National Magazines and held national "Fantasy Football Expert" status for years and years.  Perhaps you bought Magazines that I wrote for back in the 2000s?  I am member 34 on these message boards.  I was/am Drugrunner, and developed the Minimal WR strategy back in the very early days of Fantasy Football.  Search Drugrunner on these forums.

Henry is a dog when the Titians are an underdog, and a stud when the Titians are favored.  Run the numbers.
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Hi Mike - I think Im going to start coming to you for advice when I am stuck... Your expertise was needed this week!   Great analysis on Henry by the way.  I dont own him in any leagues, but I would have been one of the idiots looking at 50+ points on my bench.  

Of course I did start Fournette in a league... so thats pretty cool.

 
Okay, so I ran the numbers. The picture is getting murkier. This is standard scoring, no PPR. These are the opening lines. 

1) Tenn faves - 3.1

2) OTB/No line - 6

3) Tenn dogs - 5.7

4) Tenn dogs - 3.1

5) Tenn favored - 5.6

6) Tenn dogs - 2.6

7) Ten dogs  - 12

8 - BYE

9) Tenn dogs - 9.2

10)Tenn dogs  -17.8

11) Tenn dogs - 4.6

12) Tenn dogs - 2.9

13) Tenn favored - 10.5

14) Tenn favored - 47.80 

Still, great job Drugrunner! :subscribe:

 
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So we get bonus points for long yardage TDs as well as runs of 20 yard increments. He had 82 points tonight. On the waiver wire where he has sat since I dropped him 5 weeks ago. 

 
Mike Anderson said:
Hi Captain, anyone in the playoffs with Henry on their bench should have started him this week.  The Titians were favored by 5.  Henry Goes off when the Vegas line favors the Titians,  I started him over Dalvin Cook.  If the Titians are favored, Henry is a quality play..
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Posted this already in the Henry thread, but genuinely curious how you can call this going off. 

Favored Games:

 1: Miami - 10 for 26

5: Buffalo - 11 for 56

 11: Indy - 9 for 46

13: Jets- 10 for 30 and a Touch

Am I missing something?

 
Elevencents said:
Posted this already in the Henry thread, but genuinely curious how you can call this going off. 

Favored Games:

 1: Miami - 10 for 26

5: Buffalo - 11 for 56

 11: Indy - 9 for 46

13: Jets- 10 for 30 and a Touch

Am I missing something?
Click to expand...
Check the this thread for my posting, @Elevencents

I ran every game this year.  

 
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