DeSean Jackson, WR, Philadelphia Eagles (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2011 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

With the labor uncertainty, there are more unanswered questions entering the summer than usual. The good news is that gives us some more time to discuss the merits of players without having to react (or overreact) to the smallest bits of news about a slight injury in practice, or coach speak. We'll have plenty of time for that when it comes (we hope).

In the meantime, as always we will post a list of players to be discussed each week. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: DeSean Jackson, WR, Philadelphia Eagles

Player Page Link: DeSean Jackson Player Page

Each article will include:

[*]Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

[*]Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

[*]FBG Projections

[*]Consensus Member Projections

The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

[*]Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)

[*]Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"

[*]Avoid redundancies or ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

[*]For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs

[*]For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

[*]For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

[Bonfire]

Explosive with an explosive QB with a huge arm, but... injury concerns and a QB with an injury history and questionable backup assuming Kolb is gone.

15 games played

15 Rushes x 8 YPR

Rushing: 120 yards, 1 TD

55 Receptions x 19 YPR

Receiving: 1045 yards, 8 TD

Standard: 170.5 Pts

PPR: 225.5 Pts

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

I think DeSean Jackson is the most electric WR in the league. I anticipate his best season to date next year with Vick heading into the season as the starter. With defenses having to worry about Mike Vick's ability to move, Mike Vick's big play arm, you can't help but salivate at the number of big play opportunities Jackson will have this year. Although Vick and Jackson's ability to stay healthy is a slight concern, Jackson is a must have player this upcoming season.

70 receptions for 1180 yards and 10 Tds

115 yards rushing, 1 Td

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

Last year I caught some heat for suggesting people would be better off passing on DeSean and drafting Maclin, anticipating similar end of year numbers. Most people were still riding the high from Jackson's numerous long TDs and extremely high ypr in '09. I figured both would come up short. Turns out I was wrong about his ypr. That actually increased to an insane 22.5, but unfotunately for those Jackson fans, his receptions and touchdowns decreased and he ended up underperforming for his ADP as expected. I've seen him go WR9-13 in recent mocks, which is a position I'd use for more consistent producers who are possibly red zone threats, but I recall he was going around WR7 last year. So while that may still be too steep a price for him, it is more reasonable than a year ago. With rumors of Philly pursuing Burress the WR pie might get a little smaller. That being said, one must expect more than 47 receptions this year. If he stays healthy then he should reach 60-65. Which should be enough for some good year end totals (if he can maintain his high ypr) but streaky weekly performances.60 rec x 18.0 ypr = 1080 yds 7 TD, 12 carries x 8 ypc = 96 yds 0 TD

When you use the term "if he can maintain his high ypr" you know you're not giving the guy enough credit for who he is.If Peyton Manning can maintain his strong arm, he'll throw for 4000 plus yards.Jackson is the most dangerous football player on the planet in open field, I'll go out on a limb and say he'll maintain his high ypr.

 

[5-ish Finkle]

The biggest rub with Jackson is likely always going to be health. He's probably always going to miss time(even just a game)/be susceptible to kill shots because of his size. That's the gamble you take with Desean. He's a tiny little man playing a large man's game.

When he's healthy he's the Eagles' best WR. Year end totals don't tell the whole story(he missed time), but PPG does. When he plays, he typically produces even on weeks where he has low catch totals since he scores just about every other game.

To me, Jackson's almost the ideal fantasy WR2. He will have a number of big weeks where he will outscore most other WR1's, but if he's your #2 you can stomach the few dog weeks he's likely to have a little easier. On one hand, he's nerve racking to own because of the perpetual worry about durability/the fact that a lot of his panache is predicated on long touchdowns. On the other hand, he's extremely fun to own because of said long TDs that he seems prone to scoring ever other game.

14 games played, 65 catches, 1203 yards, 8 TDs. 13 rushing attempts, 120 rushing yards, 1 TD.

 

[az_prof]

Last year I caught some heat for suggesting people would be better off passing on DeSean and drafting Maclin, anticipating similar end of year numbers. Most people were still riding the high from Jackson's numerous long TDs and extremely high ypr in '09. I figured both would come up short. Turns out I was wrong about his ypr. That actually increased to an insane 22.5, but unfotunately for those Jackson fans, his receptions and touchdowns decreased and he ended up underperforming for his ADP as expected. I've seen him go WR9-13 in recent mocks, which is a position I'd use for more consistent producers who are possibly red zone threats, but I recall he was going around WR7 last year. So while that may still be too steep a price for him, it is more reasonable than a year ago. With rumors of Philly pursuing Burress the WR pie might get a little smaller. That being said, one must expect more than 47 receptions this year. If he stays healthy then he should reach 60-65. Which should be enough for some good year end totals (if he can maintain his high ypr) but streaky weekly performances.60 rec x 18.0 ypr = 1080 yds 7 TD, 12 carries x 8 ypc = 96 yds 0 TD

When you use the term "if he can maintain his high ypr" you know you're not giving the guy enough credit for who he is.If Peyton Manning can maintain his strong arm, he'll throw for 4000 plus yards.Jackson is the most dangerous football player on the planet in open field, I'll go out on a limb and say he'll maintain his high ypr.

You are comparing DJax as a receiver to Peyton Manning as a QB? Really? Really? When DJax has 6 or 7 years of being a top 10 fantasy receiver, let's talk.

 

[rzrback77]

DeSean Jackson has blazing speed and some moves to go with that speed. He is tremendously exciting to watch and has scored 20 TDs from the line of scrimmage over his short three year BFL career.

On the other hand, he is 5'-9" and only 169 pounds. He has only missed three games over his career, but two of them were last year, his first with Michael Vick at QB. Vick had his career year last season in Philly, particularly throwing as he passed for over 3,000 yards in only 12 games and averaging 8.1 ypa.

An interesting review of Jackson's game by game revealed huge variance, with him having six ppr games where he scored under 10 fantasy points and five games where he scored over 5 over 20.

My perspective is that his exciting play, long TDs, and huge games will have someone draft him before I am ready to pull the trigger. I will say that he is ideal for best ball as some of his weeks almost single handedly will bring your team the win.

I lean to the side questioning that Vick will maintain his record pace of a year ago and Maclin, McCoy, and possibly Coach Reid will limit Jackson's per game targets and opportunities.

D. Jackson 16 gms 105 targets 57 catches 54.3% 1083 yds 19.0 ypc 100 rushing yds & 7 TDs

 

[sihaokills]

1000 rec yards 9 TDs

130 rush yards 1 TD

 

[OnTheReg]

I am so torn on D-Jax. Love watching him play, but it can be so frustrating those weeks where he is almost non existent.

 

[johnadams]

As much as I enjoy watching Jackson as a player, I'm very reticent to get him on a FF squad. I agree that he's a very good WR2, but not in PPR leagues. Moreso than just about any other player, my feelings about him are based on league settings. Best ball, milestone incentives, bonus for long plays/TDs, or return yds/TDs are a few leagues where I would consider him a legit WR1. In non-PPR where inconsistency is common, he's borderline to me between WR1/WR2. But in PPR leagues where consistency from WRs is critical, I look at him as a WR2.

His yearly stats don't really matter as he will be the kind of guy who has several huge games and almost as many duds. At the end of the year, I would guess about 70 receptions, 1300 yds, 9 TDs with four absolute duds/DNPs, four mediocre games, four strong games, and four weeks that he wins the game outright for you. I just don't know when they'll happen.

 

[streamkeeper]

My league scores 1 point per 15 yards and TDs for return yards. Do we expect him to remain a special teamer this year and if so what would the expectation on those numbers?

Thx

 

[OnTheReg]

I play in a PPR league, but we get 10 pts for every receiving yard, and 3 pts for every 100 yards receiving, so I have used Jax as a keeper the past two years. He is feast or fathom though.

 

[stugnut]

I play in a PPR league, but we get 10 pts for every receiving yard, and 3 pts for every 100 yards receiving, so I have used Jax as a keeper the past two years. He is feast or fathom though.

I keep my ear to the grindstone and I hear that's a mute point.

 

[bigmiiiiike]

65 catches, 1290 yards, 8 TDs

 

[fightingillini]

I think DeSean Jackson is the most electric WR in the league. I anticipate his best season to date next year with Vick heading into the season as the starter. With defenses having to worry about Mike Vick's ability to move, Mike Vick's big play arm, you can't help but salivate at the number of big play opportunities Jackson will have this year. Although Vick and Jackson's ability to stay healthy is a slight concern, Jackson is a must have player this upcoming season.

I agree 100% with your first statement. DeSean Jackson is fun to watch and has tons of talent. But I disagree 100% with your last statement. Jackson has to compete with Maclin, Celek, and a very good pass catching RB in Lesean McCoy....for passes. Vick likely won't throw for more than 3600 yards.....remember that he's still a running QB. For Jackson to live up to the WR12 ADP, he needs to go over 1000 yards and score 8 or more TDs. But Maclin has an ADP of WR17, so owners are expecting Maclin to go over 1000 yards as well. If Vick throws for 3500 yards, it's highly doubtful that both Jackson and Maclin will go over 1000 yards each. Which means one will bust. Not sure which one it will be, so I will be avoiding Jackson at his ADP.65 rec, 1000 yards, 7 TD

 

[TheDirtyWord]

I think DeSean Jackson is the most electric WR in the league. I anticipate his best season to date next year with Vick heading into the season as the starter. With defenses having to worry about Mike Vick's ability to move, Mike Vick's big play arm, you can't help but salivate at the number of big play opportunities Jackson will have this year. Although Vick and Jackson's ability to stay healthy is a slight concern, Jackson is a must have player this upcoming season.

I agree 100% with your first statement. DeSean Jackson is fun to watch and has tons of talent. But I disagree 100% with your last statement. Jackson has to compete with Maclin, Celek, and a very good pass catching RB in Lesean McCoy....for passes. Vick likely won't throw for more than 3600 yards.....remember that he's still a running QB. For Jackson to live up to the WR12 ADP, he needs to go over 1000 yards and score 8 or more TDs. But Maclin has an ADP of WR17, so owners are expecting Maclin to go over 1000 yards as well. If Vick throws for 3500 yards, it's highly doubtful that both Jackson and Maclin will go over 1000 yards each. Which means one will bust. Not sure which one it will be, so I will be avoiding Jackson at his ADP.

65 rec, 1000 yards, 7 TD

While I am not someone who would probably draft Jackson, it's more because he is the biggest boom/bust WR in the NFL. For 4 games last season, he was unstoppable and one of those types of players who you wonder why he's ever non-productive. The other 10 games, he's invisible. When you couple that with the fact that we all started to hear whispers that after he took the hit he did that he was hesitant to go over the middle, his ability to use all areas of the field seems compromised. What I will say is that his contract situation should be monitored closely. He covets an extension and if he gets one, this fear/apprehension may go away. If not...this might be an area where teams could more effectively scheme against him.Back to Jackson's production though, 57% of his yardage production came in 4 games (17% on two receptions) as did 2/3 of his TD's. I recognize that all players have big games that help to boost their year end numbers, but DeSean is an extreme case. Someone who drafts DeSean early MUST go with a heavy WR strategy early IMO because he only produces like a #1 WR about 1/3 of the time. The other 2/3's, he's a #3 WR at best. At an ADP of WR6 @FFC, the value isn't there.

With that said, PHI's passing game generated 4200+ gross passing yards in 2010 and that was with Kolb playing 4+ games. In less than 11 games, Vick threw for 3000+ yards, and Reid is completely committed to the passing game. So I think the potential is definitely there for Jackson and Maclin to exceed 1000 yards each. It's the manner in which they'll accumulate their production.

Prediction: 53 Receptions, 991 Receivng Yards, 7 TD's; 12 Rushes 118 Rushing Yards, 1 TD.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

I play in a PPR league, but we get 10 pts for every receiving yard, and 3 pts for every 100 yards receiving, so I have used Jax as a keeper the past two years. He is feast or fathom though.

I keep my ear to the grindstone and I hear that's a mute point.

Why do people insist on beating a red horse to depth on these boards?

 

[bigmiiiiike]

I play in a PPR league, but we get 10 pts for every receiving yard, and 3 pts for every 100 yards receiving, so I have used Jax as a keeper the past two years. He is feast or fathom though.

I keep my ear to the grindstone and I hear that's a mute point.

Why do people insist on beating a red horse to depth on these boards?

 

[Terpman22]

72/1394/11 - Vick will throw for 4k this year. Andy loves to go deep, Vick loves to go deep. I think Desean does too. Both wr's will generate 1k yards.

 

[Go Blue]

Last year I caught some heat for suggesting people would be better off passing on DeSean and drafting Maclin, anticipating similar end of year numbers. Most people were still riding the high from Jackson's numerous long TDs and extremely high ypr in '09. I figured both would come up short. Turns out I was wrong about his ypr. That actually increased to an insane 22.5, but unfotunately for those Jackson fans, his receptions and touchdowns decreased and he ended up underperforming for his ADP as expected. I've seen him go WR9-13 in recent mocks, which is a position I'd use for more consistent producers who are possibly red zone threats, but I recall he was going around WR7 last year. So while that may still be too steep a price for him, it is more reasonable than a year ago. With rumors of Philly pursuing Burress the WR pie might get a little smaller. That being said, one must expect more than 47 receptions this year. If he stays healthy then he should reach 60-65. Which should be enough for some good year end totals (if he can maintain his high ypr) but streaky weekly performances.60 rec x 18.0 ypr = 1080 yds 7 TD, 12 carries x 8 ypc = 96 yds 0 TD

When you use the term "if he can maintain his high ypr" you know you're not giving the guy enough credit for who he is.If Peyton Manning can maintain his strong arm, he'll throw for 4000 plus yards.Jackson is the most dangerous football player on the planet in open field, I'll go out on a limb and say he'll maintain his high ypr.

You are comparing DJax as a receiver to Peyton Manning as a QB? Really? Really? When DJax has 6 or 7 years of being a top 10 fantasy receiver, let's talk.

I did not take that as he was comparing Manning to Jackson. He used a football analogy. He could have used someone at RB, WR, or TE too. It just happened to be Manning because it's a given that he's going to pass for 4K. Just like Iwanna feels it's a given that Jackson is going to keep up his high yards per catch. Considering that is Jackson's game, it's pretty hard to disagree with him. Jackson has averaged 20.2 yards per catch over the last 2 years. By the way, Jackson doesn't need to be a top 10 WR to lead the league in yards per catch. See 2010 stats. Assuming 16 games played:68 receptions / 1322 yards / 9 TD's15 rushes / 120 yards / 1 TD

 

[T with T]

Last year I caught some heat for suggesting people would be better off passing on DeSean and drafting Maclin, anticipating similar end of year numbers. Most people were still riding the high from Jackson's numerous long TDs and extremely high ypr in '09. I figured both would come up short. Turns out I was wrong about his ypr. That actually increased to an insane 22.5, but unfotunately for those Jackson fans, his receptions and touchdowns decreased and he ended up underperforming for his ADP as expected. I've seen him go WR9-13 in recent mocks, which is a position I'd use for more consistent producers who are possibly red zone threats, but I recall he was going around WR7 last year. So while that may still be too steep a price for him, it is more reasonable than a year ago. With rumors of Philly pursuing Burress the WR pie might get a little smaller. That being said, one must expect more than 47 receptions this year. If he stays healthy then he should reach 60-65. Which should be enough for some good year end totals (if he can maintain his high ypr) but streaky weekly performances.60 rec x 18.0 ypr = 1080 yds 7 TD, 12 carries x 8 ypc = 96 yds 0 TD

When you use the term "if he can maintain his high ypr" you know you're not giving the guy enough credit for who he is.If Peyton Manning can maintain his strong arm, he'll throw for 4000 plus yards.Jackson is the most dangerous football player on the planet in open field, I'll go out on a limb and say he'll maintain his high ypr.

You are comparing DJax as a receiver to Peyton Manning as a QB? Really? Really? When DJax has 6 or 7 years of being a top 10 fantasy receiver, let's talk.

I did not take that as he was comparing Manning to Jackson. He used a football analogy. He could have used someone at RB, WR, or TE too. It just happened to be Manning because it's a given that he's going to pass for 4K. Just like Iwanna feels it's a given that Jackson is going to keep up his high yards per catch. Considering that is Jackson's game, it's pretty hard to disagree with him. Jackson has averaged 20.2 yards per catch over the last 2 years. By the way, Jackson doesn't need to be a top 10 WR to lead the league in yards per catch. See 2010 stats. Assuming 16 games played:68 receptions / 1322 yards / 9 TD's15 rushes / 120 yards / 1 TD

Pretty good stats... thats 1440 yards total and 10 tds ... thats tier fantasy wr, and in ppr it would be about 272 points which would be top 5 wr. I think Desean is being unfairly classified as Inj prone and he gets dinged up alot. Did you see the hit that knocked him out for 1.5 games he probably could have played he is that tough but NFL is tough on concussions. that was a fluky, weird play and anyone would have been Messed up on that. I think In this forum people are givin him the inj prone label to easy now. desean is tough as they come, hes a hood dude. Don't question his toughness. he got hit with a weird hit sometimes that happens. He was walking off the field dazed. Most guys would have needed stretcher for sure.