Deshaun Watson Trade Value For Texans Now Vs. Offseason (1 Viewer)

[Joe Bryant]

For the Texans, how does Deshaun Watson's trade value compare today to what it's likley to be in the offseason?

And of course, the offseason is unknown as Watson's legal situation could be better or worse. So 'It depends" isn't a real answer. That's why it's an interesting question. 

 

[osiriskid]

This should be an intriguing thread thanks Joe!

 

[Drunken Cowboy]

I don't think it is that high at either point and whatever it is is way too high. 

 

[Joe Bryant]

I don't think it is that high at either point and whatever it is is way too high. 

I'm not sure about that. The talk is definitely high value. We'll see if that turns out to be true. 

 

[Joe Bryant]

I asked here too. https://twitter.com/Football_Guys/status/1452751337540685833?s=20

 

[BassNBrew]

Definitely the offseason.  Don't know why anyone would trade for a one way ticket to the commissioner's exempt list.

 

[Insein]

Off-season potentially if his allegations get resolved in a positive way for him. Right now, I can't see a team giving up more than a first for a guy they don't even know can play this year or next. 

 

[Scooby1974]

Higher value now. Then the legal stuff hits and his value drops. Then the legal stuff gets resolved and his player value goes up but depending upon the outcome his human being value goes down...and then it becomes political like Kap, except bad like Ray Rice x 100.

       Value Scale:

                                                                 After/If Legal issues are resolved----but what a PR nightmare

Now

                          Off-season

 

[Drunken Cowboy]

I'm not sure about that. The talk is definitely high value. We'll see if that turns out to be true. 

I easily could be wrong. It only takes one sucker to bid against themselves to drive up a price. 

 

[Chaka]

Off-season regardless of his legal status.

Right now there are maybe three teams that possibly are interested in Watson. Miami, Philly & Carolina. In the off-season rosters churn and more teams will potentially jump into the fray. Denver will definitely be looking for a QB and then who knows? Pittsburgh? Tennessee? New Orleans? Atlanta? Minnesota? Detroit? Washington? Who knows? Things get crazy in the off-season.

Aside from, maybe possibly, Aaron Rodgers there won't be a QB of this caliber available. And whoever loses out on Rodgers will be even more desperate.

His value is as low as it will be now because of the very realistic possibility that he will end up on the exempt list the second he is activated. It hasn't happened yet because it doesn't need to now as he is sitting out voluntarily. Why draw unnecessary attention to the "Sexual Assault" headline sitting on the bench?

Goodell has broad authority to place people on the exempt list and if there is even a hint of a suggestion that the headline before and after every Miami game (and Texans game) includes "Sexual Assault", which it absolutely will be, I guarantee you Goodell will exert that authority.

Watson will never be cheaper than he is right now.

 

[menobrown]

I voted the same but that's an opinion and I since I don't think his value would get worse and it's possible at least some of his legal situations get resolved at some point the odds to me suggest if his value moves at all it will be higher.

On top of that if you are the Texans and you are about to trade away what I think will be the most valuable young player traded in modern history of the game you want to know the exact pick(s), not the round but the exact pick(s).

All things being equal I only see two negatives for the Texans to wait and both are kind of flimsy premises.

1. They have reason to believe things won't go well on the legal front for Watson and further scare teams off.

2. I'm sure they can't wait to put this behind them, remove any and all distractions and get to work on the rebuild.

Bottom line to me is unless the Texans get an offer that is just to good to pass up they should just continue to wait. That's just from a football perspective anyway. No idea on potential business impact of stuff like when Texans open up for 2022 business and ticket sales if continuing to roster Watson with no resolution in sight is that big of a financial loss.

 

[Bri]

Higher now. If Carolina, Miami, whichever team is thinking they're a QB away, they can offer a first and be good to go next year- if he's cleared and suspended now. If they lose this chance then they have to draft someone that may takes years to develop.

I think both teams have a lot of young talent. 3,4,5 year rookie deals could have to be renewed and a different makeup by the time a 2022 rookie QB develops.

Rhule has said he supports Darnold as he benched him. Tua has played reasonably well as they're supposedly displeased. There's definitely room for all this to be twisted or misconstrued.

I saw three firsts and excessive asking price. That's not happening for a guy that might not play ever.

I also believe draft picks have more value the furthest away from April and we're at that midpoint. No starting LB would be traded for a sixth in February or June but one was traded today.

 

[TampaMike19]

Now because they can acclimate him to the roster sooner and now you know which teams draft picks are likely to be 

 

[voiceofunreason]

Definitely the offseason.  Don't know why anyone would trade for a one way ticket to the commissioner's exempt list.

And create a massive distraction for the team. But teams do weird things and picking up a top 5 qb is a lot of temptation. Still can't see how anyone would give up 3 first rounders for a guy who could sit for a year and a half and cost a lot of PR problems.

 

[Johnny Utah #9]

Great topic Joe. I think the answer to this question depends entirely on who you are asking. In a vacuum, his value is likely higher in the offseason, depending on how his legal issues progress of course. On the condition  that he settles the civil cases out of court and avoids criminal charges (the most likely outcome imo), he theoretically could rehab his trade value to some extent. And of course more teams would be in the running for his services in the offseason. 

But in the current reality, I believe the Texans believe his value is highest (such as it is) now and want to desperately move him before the trade deadline. They want to wash their hands of him at this point and don’t want to play the legal roulette game of things possibly not going his way legally and having his value crater even further. And given the general incompetence of that franchise’s “braintrust” I’m sure they are taking the shortsighted thinking approach here. For these reasons I believe the Texans believe his trade value is highest now and will desperately try to move him before the deadline.

 

[BigJim®]

Answered same... assuming the Texans are legitimately asking what has been reported. It won't be more than that. Heck, it can't be more than that.

 

[Joe Bryant]

Thanks folks. Thoughtful responses here. Will be interesting for sure. 

 

[-OZ-]

Voted higher in the off season assuming things play out as I think they will. He’ll be back on the field at some point but not this year. 
With no top obvious franchise type QBs in the draft this year, a team will probably be willing to trade for one of the best available despite the circumstances. Many will want to wait until things are sorted out, some of those won’t want him on their team but it only takes one too look past the character issues and bad PR.  Which is easier to do either if you can win now or have built a fan base to the point where most will accept it. 
 

i make no predictions here but for the sake of argument, say Ben retires at the end of the season. The Steelers have that loyal fan base and could win with Watson. Many seem to have forgiven Ben for his allegations. Denver and Washington could be interested next season but apparently aren’t right now. 

 

[Grahamburn]

Answered same... assuming the Texans are legitimately asking what has been reported. It won't be more than that. Heck, it can't be more than that.

What they’re asking and what teams are willing to pay are not the same. His value is what a team is willing to pay. 

 

[TVT 0 N S T A]

I voted higher in the off-season.  I think what people are not taking into account for is the media backlash when he takes the field.  We are still in the "me too" movement and he has not been convicted, but if/when he is convicted and he plays for a team - people are going to lose it.  To some degree, there are probably people that are not following this too closely (non-football fans).  With that being said, you can't ask for a king's ransom for a guy that is going to cause a circus for your team.  Especially, if you believe the guy may be cut.  I think the Texans cut him all together if they are not able to move him.  This makes the situation more puzzling, because you might as well get what you can and bail out.

I would say, if Miami comes to you and offers a 1st round pick and Tua - you take that deal, because you have zero leverage.  I don't think the Texans franchise knows what they are doing, but they should blow the team up (which it looks like they have done) and start over.  

 

[Jayded]

I think it has to be higher now. In the offseason there will be more competition either from free agents moving around, draft QBs, etc. Right now, where else can you get a potential franchise QB that's 26 years old?

The only reason it's higher right now as well, if you believe the reports, is because there is more than one team involved and because Watson has indicated he'd accept more than one team. That breeds room for a bidding war and with clearly the most potentially valuable QB asset available, the Texans are likely to get more IMO than in the offseason where vets and rookies enter the equation(s).

 

[Team Smokin']

Great topic Joe. I think the answer to this question depends entirely on who you are asking. In a vacuum, his value is likely higher in the offseason, depending on how his legal issues progress of course. On the condition  that he settles the civil cases out of court and avoids criminal charges (the most likely outcome imo), he theoretically could rehab his trade value to some extent. And of course more teams would be in the running for his services in the offseason. 

But in the current reality, I believe the Texans believe his value is highest (such as it is) now and want to desperately move him before the trade deadline. They want to wash their hands of him at this point and don’t want to play the legal roulette game of things possibly not going his way legally and having his value crater even further. And given the general incompetence of that franchise’s “braintrust” I’m sure they are taking the shortsighted thinking approach here. For these reasons I believe the Texans believe his trade value is highest now and will desperately try to move him before the deadline.

Texans front office have an overall idea of what D Watson's value is and they also have a strong belief that he won't ever play for them again. Deshaun can afford to sit out. What I am hearing is the Commish will not put him on the exempt list this year, correct? That matters. And the rest of the legal matters could be solved out of court with cash payoffs - idk? No team would pick him up just for the rest of this season and have serious doubts if he plays next year. If I were a team looking to add D Watson I would want him to start as soon as possible and work with Watson on his sexual behavior issues so he doesn't mess up. Watson would probably enroll is some kind of classes like M Vick did for his dog fighting. Everyone deserves a second, a third opportunity. Who are we to judge. Let him play and if his off the field behavior becomes an issue then he makes his own bed like Flash Gordon and Ricky Williams with cannabis, which is really not that big of a deal. It's like legal now. 

My question is do I pick him up for QB insurance and a possible start because he's better. 

 

[Chaka]

I think it has to be higher now. In the offseason there will be more competition either from free agents moving around, draft QBs, etc. Right now, where else can you get a potential franchise QB that's 26 years old?

The only reason it's higher right now as well, if you believe the reports, is because there is more than one team involved and because Watson has indicated he'd accept more than one team. That breeds room for a bidding war and with clearly the most potentially valuable QB asset available, the Texans are likely to get more IMO than in the offseason where vets and rookies enter the equation(s).

The only proven super star franchise QB potentially available in the off-season will be Aaron Rodgers, maybe.

Everything else is a hope. How many first round picks did SF trade to get Lance? And there is no way of knowing what caliber of QB he will be. 

Watson is a proven elite, a-list, top-tier commodity, and he's 26. You pay at least as much for him as you do Lance.

If a team really wants him, then pay for him now while there are only a few suitors and he is in legal limbo.

In the off-season there will be more suitors, which will drive up his value without any change in his legal status. And when the legal issues are resolved his value increases even further.

Pay now or pay more later.

 

[Cjw_55106]

I think the Texans should have threatened to start him weeks ago. They are getting screwed by the league through inaction. They are disciplining him so the leagues doesn't have to do anything right now. Truth be told, I'm a bit surprised the NFLPA hasn't done anything. Either he's dome something wrong and should be suspended, or he hasnt. 

To answer Joe's question, its impossible to tell. If they get what they are asking for, his value cant get higher. Unfortunately, we dont know what is being offered. The only thing I do know is, Im tired of hearing about the Dolphins and Watson so Nov 2 cant come fast enough.

 

[Grahamburn]

My guess is as soon as some team trades for and tries to let him play the NFL will drop the hammer.  Any team would have to be crazy to give up multiple high picks and/or players without some kind of certainty on his eligibility to play for them. 

 

[Chaka]

Texans front office have an overall idea of what D Watson's value is and they also have a strong belief that he won't ever play for them again. Deshaun can afford to sit out. What I am hearing is the Commish will not put him on the exempt list this year, correct? That matters. And the rest of the legal matters could be solved out of court with cash payoffs - idk? No team would pick him up just for the rest of this season and have serious doubts if he plays next year. If I were a team looking to add D Watson I would want him to start as soon as possible and work with Watson on his sexual behavior issues so he doesn't mess up. Watson would probably enroll is some kind of classes like M Vick did for his dog fighting. Everyone deserves a second, a third opportunity. Who are we to judge. Let him play and if his off the field behavior becomes an issue then he makes his own bed like Flash Gordon and Ricky Williams with cannabis, which is really not that big of a deal. It's like legal now. 

My question is do I pick him up for QB insurance and a possible start because he's better. 

Goodell won't put him in the list until he has to. Right now the Texans and Watson have voluntarily agreed to sit him so Goodell doesn't have to make the decision.

If the Texans, or whichever team trades for him decide to activate Watson Goodell will be forced to make a decision. 

My money says Goodell will immediately put Watson on the list. The NFL absolutely does not want "Sexual Assault" leading the game day and presser stories every week.

I think Watson then stays on the list until his legal issues are resolved.

Another reason he won't be cheaper, vis-a-vis draft and player capital, than right now because any team that signs him not only won't be able to deploy him they will also, IIRC, be on the hook for his $39mil/year salary.

 

[Team Smokin']

Goodell won't put him in the list until he has to. Right now the Texans and Watson have voluntarily agreed to sit him so Goodell doesn't have to make the decision.

If the Texans, or whichever team trades for him decide to activate Watson Goodell will be forced to make a decision. 

My money says Goodell will immediately put Watson on the list. The NFL absolutely does not want "Sexual Assault" leading the game day and presser stories every week.

I think Watson then stays on the list until his legal issues are resolved.

Another reason he won't be cheaper, vis-a-vis draft and player capital, than right now because any team that signs him not only won't be able to deploy him they will also, IIRC, be on the hook for his $39mil/year salary.

Then forget the whole deal and stop talking about a trade if that's the case. I'm sure ownership is in touch with Goodell as no one will touch him with a 10 foot pole if that is the case. Moot point then. Now, if Goodell gives the okay and won't put him on the exempt list then the discussion continues. Nobody in their right mind would take on such a big hit dollar wise and not be able to use him. Makes no sense. 

 

[Chaka]

Then forget the whole deal and stop talking about a trade if that's the case. I'm sure ownership is in touch with Goodell as no one will touch him with a 10 foot pole if that is the case. Moot point then. Now, if Goodell gives the okay and won't put him on the exempt list then the discussion continues. Nobody in their right mind would take on such a big hit dollar wise and not be able to use him. Makes no sense. 

Which is why his value will never be lower than it is right now.

But you drastically underestimate the willingness of owners and GMs to take risks. 2021 is lost IMO but Watson will more than make up for that loss in 2022 & beyond.

 

[nysfl2]

Goodell won't put him in the list until he has to. Right now the Texans and Watson have voluntarily agreed to sit him so Goodell doesn't have to make the decision.

If the Texans, or whichever team trades for him decide to activate Watson Goodell will be forced to make a decision. 

My money says Goodell will immediately put Watson on the list. The NFL absolutely does not want "Sexual Assault" leading the game day and presser stories every week.

I think Watson then stays on the list until his legal issues are resolved.

Another reason he won't be cheaper, vis-a-vis draft and player capital, than right now because any team that signs him not only won't be able to deploy him they will also, IIRC, be on the hook for his $39mil/year salary.

Trading him doesn't look impossible, cap-wise. Looks like the Texans would get $16 million in dead cap between this year and next from the remaining signing bonus, and his 2021 salary is only $10.5 million, which the acquiring team would have to absorb.

Next year, his salary is $35 million, which would suck for the team if he's not playing.

 

[Joe Bryant]

Then forget the whole deal and stop talking about a trade if that's the case. I'm sure ownership is in touch with Goodell as no one will touch him with a 10 foot pole if that is the case. Moot point then. Now, if Goodell gives the okay and won't put him on the exempt list then the discussion continues. Nobody in their right mind would take on such a big hit dollar wise and not be able to use him. Makes no sense. 

I'm fascinated to know how much behind the scenes talk has gone on. I can't imagine a team trading for Watson this year and not having a pretty clear indication from Goodell what will happen. Especially high profile owners like they have in PHI, MIA and CAR. 

 

[Jayded]

Then forget the whole deal and stop talking about a trade if that's the case. I'm sure ownership is in touch with Goodell as no one will touch him with a 10 foot pole if that is the case. Moot point then. Now, if Goodell gives the okay and won't put him on the exempt list then the discussion continues. Nobody in their right mind would take on such a big hit dollar wise and not be able to use him. Makes no sense. 

He's only 26 though. I wouldn't agree it makes no sense. Didn't the Brooklyn Nets trade for Kevin Durant and pay his whole salary for a year while he was out with an Achilles injury? I liken it to the same, though injury <> legal situations. If you swallow the pill that  there's either a short tern legal penalty (suspension for appearances) or no penalty at all (unlikely there's nothing nothing) and assume the criminal side is out of the equation, you might well decide that paying him to sit some number of games is still worth it because you have a franchise QB in his 20's on the other end of it.

 

[Chaka]

Trading him doesn't look impossible, cap-wise. Looks like the Texans would get $16 million in dead cap between this year and next from the remaining signing bonus, and his 2021 salary is only $10.5 million, which the acquiring team would have to absorb.

Next year, his salary is $35 million, which would suck for the team if he's not playing.

Good info.

So players on the exempt list both get their salary and count against the cap?

 

[BigJim®]

I'm fascinated to know how much behind the scenes talk has gone on. I can't imagine a team trading for Watson this year and not having a pretty clear indication from Goodell what will happen. Especially high profile owners like they have in PHI, MIA and CAR. 

It plays directly into the cost calculus. If I'm trading away my 1st, is that a 1st which is going to become top 5 with a suspended Watson, or in the teens - benefitting from Watson being on the field? If there is any question, I wait until the value of my pick is known.

 

[Team Smokin']

He's only 26 though. I wouldn't agree it makes no sense. Didn't the Brooklyn Nets trade for Kevin Durant and pay his whole salary for a year while he was out with an Achilles injury? I liken it to the same, though injury <> legal situations. If you swallow the pill that  there's either a short tern legal penalty (suspension for appearances) or no penalty at all (unlikely there's nothing nothing) and assume the criminal side is out of the equation, you might well decide that paying him to sit some number of games is still worth it because you have a franchise QB in his 20's on the other end of it.

One just has to know going in as many of the variables as possible. His talent is worth the research. 

 

[travdogg]

I think they'd get much more right now. Good chance both Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson could be available next offseason, Plus, teams could become enamored with several of the rookie class. Right now, its Watson or nothing, especially to a team like Carolina, who is a playoff team with better QB play. Carolina would be 6-1 right now in my opinion if Watson was their QB this season.

 

[Birdie048]

Higher now. If Carolina, Miami, whichever team is thinking they're a QB away, they can offer a first and be good to go next year- if he's cleared and suspended now. If they lose this chance then they have to draft someone that may takes years to develop.

I think both teams have a lot of young talent. 3,4,5 year rookie deals could have to be renewed and a different makeup by the time a 2022 rookie QB develops.

Rhule has said he supports Darnold as he benched him. Tua has played reasonably well as they're supposedly displeased. There's definitely room for all this to be twisted or misconstrued.

I saw three firsts and excessive asking price. That's not happening for a guy that might not play ever.

I also believe draft picks have more value the furthest away from April and we're at that midpoint. No starting LB would be traded for a sixth in February or June but one was traded today.

I agree that the more teams involved now, the more value can be attributed in the trade.  I think Carolina, Miami, Cleveland, Seattle, Pittsburg, and even Minnesota could be involved if the price was right.  During the off-season, there is more value in a Draft Selection then a player with "PR Baggage Headache" like Watson. 

Now is the time for a needy team with the pieces in place to make a move... Cleveland is the most logical "Win Now" with Baker's injury.  

But Cleveland was smart building thru the draft. 

 

[Team Smokin']

And what I'm really looking for is, do I add D Watson to any of my teams because of stock value / trade value / play value this year? 

Last week he was picked up and dropped in all my leagues. Tough week to field enough players and Watson was too uncertain. Now here we are again. It seems as if a likely trade will go through and Joe's question will become a moot point. Will he play this year and play well? That is what us fantasy managers are most concerned about - Deshaun Watson's stock watch. Depends upon needs, etc. Would he step into a top 5 QB possibility ROS - I believe he would. Lots of talent in MIA, and CAR. 

The trade deadline looms...

 

[jtd13]

I think they'd get much more right now. Good chance both Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson could be available next offseason, Plus, teams could become enamored with several of the rookie class. Right now, its Watson or nothing, especially to a team like Carolina, who is a playoff team with better QB play. Carolina would be 6-1 right now in my opinion if Watson was their QB this season.

I agree with this. Teams are more optimistic about their options in the offseason, including FAs and rookies they pursue. Right now, if you are seeing issues with your QB play, what are your options besides Watson?

 

[Snotbubbles]

My first instinct is his value is tied to his legal issues.  But if those issues remain constant, I'd say offseason his value is higher.  Teams have cap space, they can get him into their offseason workouts, they know where their draft picks landed.  You trade for a QB in-season, he's probably not playing right away anyway.  

 

[Boone22]

The Houston Chronicle reported on Tuesday that the Dolphins and Texans have agreed to terms on a trade for QB Deshaun Watson, but the Dolphins want clarity on his legal issues before going through with it.

That means there is no timeline on when Watson could be a Dolphin, as there is no end in sight for his legal issues. Regardless, it's interesting to confirm that there have been talks and potentially even an agreement between the two sides on a deal to send Watson to Miami, even if nothing is imminent on account of the accusations levied toward the quarterback.

 

[BroncoFreak_2K3]

I think he plays by Week 10 this season 

 

[Birdie048]

I think they'd get much more right now. Good chance both Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson could be available next offseason, Plus, teams could become enamored with several of the rookie class. Right now, its Watson or nothing, especially to a team like Carolina, who is a playoff team with better QB play. Carolina would be 6-1 right now in my opinion if Watson was their QB this season.

I agree.  But what is the cost to acquire him and still be a playoff challenger caliber team?  What would it take to acquire him from the current roster? 

If they lose DJ Moore, that cripples them on offense. 

If they lose part of their Def like Burns or Chin, that puts them back on their heels significantly.  

 

[dhockster]

There are so many variables to answer the question when will his trade value be higher. I think the true answer is his trade value in the offseason could be higher OR lower than it is now. If his lawsuits are settled between now and early in the offseason with no criminal charges coming up and it is known that there will be minimal punishment from the league than his value goes up in the offseason. However, if the lawsuits are not settled and incriminating information gets leaked from depositions, or criminal charges are filed, or the league comes out with a very punitive suspension for 2022, then his value goes down in the offseason. My guess is if the Dolphins get close to the Texans reported asking price of 3 one's and 2 two's, the Texans should take the deal. For instance if Miami offers 2 firsts and a second, and then also gives another 2nd from a trade with a 3rd team for Tua, then that is enough for the Texans to do the deal. They get a little less than what they probably would get for a young, top 5 franchise QB if there were no issues involving the QB, but they would also shift all the potential negative downside from themselves to the Dolphins. If I were the Dolphins, I would only do the deal if I had pretty strong evidence that things affecting Deshaun's availability in 2022 were going to turn out in a positive manner.

 

[travdogg]

I agree.  But what is the cost to acquire him and still be a playoff challenger caliber team?  What would it take to acquire him from the current roster? 

If they lose DJ Moore, that cripples them on offense. 

If they lose part of their Def like Burns or Chin, that puts them back on their heels significantly.  

I wouldn't deal any of those guys. I'd offer 2 protected 1sts(they revert to like 4th rounders if Watson is suspended) Gross-Matos, Terrace Marshall, and maybe another day 3 pick.

That's essentially two 1sts, two 2nds, and maybe a 4th. With protection on the 1sts. 

 

[Brunell4MVP]

HOU's asking price is likely nowhere near what others will offer.  HOU is likely to go at this thinking two 1st round picks + some players.  But he's devalued his own market to the point that they'd be lucky to get a 1st and 2nd. 

Frnakly as bad as WAS looks right now between the NFL report, Snyder, playing bad, the women suing etc....  I don't know if they can get any lower on the ethical chart.  So now might be the time to do it.  Take the hit while you are about to get smacked around by Congress and the NFL anyway.  People tend to forget the kind of stuff Watson did after a couple of years.  Heck, Kraft did just as bad and he still owns a team.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Seems like he’s in limbo for 2021

His value will be entirely dependent on the legal process. 

Once that domino falls, everything will go quickly, but there’s no way the Texans get full value for him during the season so long as his case is crawling through the courts.