Despyzer
Lousy Attention Whore
***UPDATED*** (changes start around pick 21)
1. Raiders: Jamarcus Russell - Personaly, I think this is a mistake. He made a splash in one big bowl game against a crappy defense, shows off some great measurables, and people fall in love with him. If anybody has to make this mistake, I'm glad it will be the Raiders. The only other reasonable possibility is Calvin Johnson.
2. Lions: Calvin Johnson - Too early for a one-dimensional guy like Adams. The Lions will open themselves for guffaws by drafting yet another WR and then either trade him or use him as a nice target opposite Roy Williams. Either way, it's the only reasonable pick.
3. Browns: Brady Quinn - Lerner hasn't kept it a secret that he loves Quinn, and why not? Quinn has thrown 69 TDs to only 14 INTs in the last year despite having only marginal talent. ND has this great football rep, but they haven't been as competitive talent-wise since they raised their admission standards. Those who criticize him for not being able to win a big game should remember how recently we said the same thing about Peyton Manning. Other possibilities are Joe Thomas and Adrian Peterson.
4. Buccaneers: Gaines Adams - Simeon Rice, Kevin Carter, and Greg Spires are all getting pretty old. If Calvin Johnson is here (unlikely), he's got to be the pick.
5. Cardinals: Joe Thomas - It almost makes too much sense for the Cardinals. But I can't think of anybody else that would really go here except the outside shot of Adrian Peterson, unless Thomas is gone and they reach for Levi Brown.
6. Redskins: LaRon Landry - I honestly think the Redskins will try to trade down, if at all possible. I think they'd rather have a DE or DT and realize that there will be good ones available much later. Landry is the prize at his position though and would be a solid addition if they have to remain here. Other possibilities include Jamaal Anderson, Amobi Akoye, or take a gamble on Alan Branch.
7. Vikings - Adrian Peterson - Personally, I am not completely sold on Peterson. I think he has rare talent, but I also think he will get beaten up a lot with that running style. I've heard the comparisons to Eric Dickerson, who never had much injury trouble, but the difference is that Dickerson was willing/able to slide through tackles whereas Peterson seems to want to pound his way through them. Anyway, it's probably worth the gamble for the Vikings, even though I think they have bigger needs. If, for some reason, Peterson is gone, the Vikings might have to reach a little bit for a CB like Leon Hall or a WR like Robert Meacham or Dwayne Bowe.
8. Falcons: Leon Hall - I know this might seem a bit early for him, but one thing that history has taught us is that QBs and CBs (and pass-rushing DEs) are overvalued in the draft. If Landry was still here, that would probably be the pick.
9. Dolphins: Levi Brown - I'm not convinced Brown is a top ten talent, but the Dolphins need some O-line help after five guys left for free agency. If Quinn is still here, the Dolphins will not pass him up.
10. Texans: Darrelle Revis - This team has a lot of needs, and a starter opposite Dunta Robinson is certainly one of them. I agree this might seem a bit early, but QBs and CBs almost always seem to climb on draft day. This is another possible landing spot for Brown, if he is available. If Leon Hall were still available, he would go ahead of Revis.
11. 49ers: Jamaal Anderson - DE is this team's biggest need, and a couple good ones should be available right here. I like both Anderson and Adam Carriker, and I think both would be a good fit. I'll flip a coin and say Anderson. Alan Branch is a possibility here, but I am predicting a big slide for him due to injury and productivity concerns.
12. Bills: Patrick Willis - Great talent that fits a need. Should be a perfect fit. A much better fit than reaching for a second-round talent like Marshawn Lynch. I could see them trading down though, if Willis is gone, and picking up a LB like Paul Posluszny or Lawrence Timmons later.
13. Rams: Amobi Okoye - I know some people think Okoye will be gone before now, but I don't see where. There are some possibilities, I guess (like the 49ers, Vikings, or Texans), but I think this is about where he belongs. Even then, i think there is a possibility that the Rams could chase Carriker or Anderson if either one is still here. I also haven't ruled out Ted Ginn, Jr., despite the signing of Dante Hall.
14. Panthers: Reggie Nelson - Safety might be this team's biggest need, and Nelson is the second best safety in the draft. It might be a little early for him, but I don't know how much they could afford to move down and still grab him. Greg Olsen is getting a lot of press at this point, but he's one of those workout warriors and the benefit of a weak TE class. I think the Panthers can afford to wait for a TE. If, for some reason, Patrick Willis is still here, he would probably be the pick.
15. Steelers: Paul Posluszny - Posluszny has the benefit of being a local selection and a guy that can aid in the transition from 3-4 to 4-3. Adam Carriker and Lawrence timmons are another couple of guys that could really help them due to their versatility.
16. Packers: Marshawn Lynch - The primary benefactor of a weak RB class, but he does have good hands and is better than anything the Pack currently has.A WR like Ted Ginn, Jr., Robert Meacham, or Dawyne Bowe could get a look here, in case Buffalo felt desperate enough to take Lynch.
17. Jaguars: Adam Carriker - The Jaguars are in a position similar to the Lions; they have taken a lot of WRs in the first round lately, and to take another one who fails to actually have first round talent could make them look foolish. Fortunately, Carriker could still be here, despite a lot of teams giving him looks. If he's gone, Jarvis Moss gets the nod. If Reggie Nelson is still available, he's the pick. If they are all gone, the Jags may have no other choice than to (sigh) take the best WR available.
18. Bengals: Ted Ginn, Jr. - I know... they already have two of the better wideouts in the league. Why should they throw away a first round pick on another WR? One good reason is that Chris Henry will miss half the season (and probably not come back in perfect football condition). He also offers them an upgrade as a returner. The Bengals really need another corner, but it's too late for Hall or Revis and perhaps too early for Houston or Ross. I think it would be too much to hope that a guy like Jamaal Anderson could slip this far, but he'd be a nice fit.
19. Titans: Robert Meacham - The exodus of Titans' receivers continued this year with the departures of Bobby Wade and Drew Bennett. Local boy Meacham seems almost too good to be true here. Ginn and Bowe are other possibilities at this position. If Carriker were still here, he would get a sniff. Another option is a possible reach to Charles Johnson.
20. Giants: Joe Staley - Kiper and others have said that the Giants have fallen in love with this guy. They might like to move down to get him, but they would be afraid he might not be there if they did. Lawrence Timmons would be a nice fit here if they decide it's too early for Staley. Posluszny would also get a look if he was still available. Another possible reach would be Aaron Ross.
21. Broncos: Alan Branch - I give in. I initially thought Branch might slide out of the first round, but he makes too much sense here, even with productivity and injury concerns. Heck, if Shanny was willing to take on the entire Browns D-line, why not Branch? Carriker and Jarvis Moss are considerations here too.
22. Cowboys: Dwayne Bowe - Owens and Glenn are both getting old (and Owens could end his own season in any given minute). I think the Cowboys would like to upgrade the secondary here, but Reggie Nelson might be gone, and it is a bit too soon for the next batch of CBs, but they will give Aaron Ross a look anyway.
23. Chiefs: Aaron Ross - Every year it looks like the Chiefs just HAVE to address their weak WR corps, but they never do. Even with the wealth of talent at the position in this draft, they probably still won't. Surtain and Law are old and slowing down. They have very little behind those two. Justin Harrell could start getting feelers around this spot.
24. Patriots: Brandon Meriweather - It;s always tough to decide how a team with two first-rounders will approach their first pick. They have some concerns at CB, Safety, and ILB. Meriweather is a top fifteen talent who slips due to some character issues, but he fits a need and Belichick has a lot of high-character guys on his roster to guide him. Greg Olsen would be an interesting choice here, as well (but he might be available when they pick again). If Joe Staley is still sitting here, the Patriots could have a difficult decision.
25. Jets: Greg Olsen - I'm hearing all sorts of Jets fans getting very excited about the chance that Olsen could drop here. It seems like a luxury pick, but the are Jets are a playoff team, right? I really think they need to upgrade at CB, but it's too early to grab the next one. You never know though.
26. Eagles: Jarvis Moss - The Eagles would be happy to take whatever guy slides to them that shouldn't have: Jarvis Moss, Dwayne Bowe, Paul Posluszny, Lawrence Timmons, Aaron Ross, Alan Branch.
27. Saints: Chris Houston - Is there anybody who doesn't think New Orleans will take the best CB available with this pick? Aaaron Ross could still be on the board too. They could possibly throw us a curve and grab a falling WR though.
28. Patriots: David Harris - I have heard this pick is a lock. A LOCK, Jerry! But if by chance I have been completely misled, Tony Ugoh, Marcus McCauley, and Jon Beason are possibilities.
29. Ravens: Tony Ugoh - They'd prefer it if Joe Staley dropped to them, but I don't think it's happening. The next tier of CBs are also an option: Daymeion Hughes, Tanard Jackson, and Marcus McCaughley. There's an outside shot that they reach for Ryan Kalil.
30. Chargers: Lawrence Timmons - When A.J. has drafted late, he has just played the waiting game to see what good player has slipped through the cracks. Timmons is similar to Donnie Edwards, so this pick works out well for them. If a primo WR dropped to them, it would be more of a luxury pick, but it's entirely possible. Don't expect them to reach for one though. (None of this Aundre Allison, Anthony Gonzales, or Sidney Rice crap.)
31. Bears: Justin Harrel - If not for his torn bicep, Harrel may have been a top ten pick.. We could see Ben Grubbs or Dwayne Jarret here if they decide the injury factor is too much.
32. Colts: Jon Beason - Super Bowl winners often have the luxury of drafting the best player available. The Colts lost a lot on defense, like Cato June. In this case, it works out well for them either way. If Justin Harrell is here, he could be tempting.
1. Raiders: Jamarcus Russell - Personaly, I think this is a mistake. He made a splash in one big bowl game against a crappy defense, shows off some great measurables, and people fall in love with him. If anybody has to make this mistake, I'm glad it will be the Raiders. The only other reasonable possibility is Calvin Johnson.
2. Lions: Calvin Johnson - Too early for a one-dimensional guy like Adams. The Lions will open themselves for guffaws by drafting yet another WR and then either trade him or use him as a nice target opposite Roy Williams. Either way, it's the only reasonable pick.
3. Browns: Brady Quinn - Lerner hasn't kept it a secret that he loves Quinn, and why not? Quinn has thrown 69 TDs to only 14 INTs in the last year despite having only marginal talent. ND has this great football rep, but they haven't been as competitive talent-wise since they raised their admission standards. Those who criticize him for not being able to win a big game should remember how recently we said the same thing about Peyton Manning. Other possibilities are Joe Thomas and Adrian Peterson.
4. Buccaneers: Gaines Adams - Simeon Rice, Kevin Carter, and Greg Spires are all getting pretty old. If Calvin Johnson is here (unlikely), he's got to be the pick.
5. Cardinals: Joe Thomas - It almost makes too much sense for the Cardinals. But I can't think of anybody else that would really go here except the outside shot of Adrian Peterson, unless Thomas is gone and they reach for Levi Brown.
6. Redskins: LaRon Landry - I honestly think the Redskins will try to trade down, if at all possible. I think they'd rather have a DE or DT and realize that there will be good ones available much later. Landry is the prize at his position though and would be a solid addition if they have to remain here. Other possibilities include Jamaal Anderson, Amobi Akoye, or take a gamble on Alan Branch.
7. Vikings - Adrian Peterson - Personally, I am not completely sold on Peterson. I think he has rare talent, but I also think he will get beaten up a lot with that running style. I've heard the comparisons to Eric Dickerson, who never had much injury trouble, but the difference is that Dickerson was willing/able to slide through tackles whereas Peterson seems to want to pound his way through them. Anyway, it's probably worth the gamble for the Vikings, even though I think they have bigger needs. If, for some reason, Peterson is gone, the Vikings might have to reach a little bit for a CB like Leon Hall or a WR like Robert Meacham or Dwayne Bowe.
8. Falcons: Leon Hall - I know this might seem a bit early for him, but one thing that history has taught us is that QBs and CBs (and pass-rushing DEs) are overvalued in the draft. If Landry was still here, that would probably be the pick.
9. Dolphins: Levi Brown - I'm not convinced Brown is a top ten talent, but the Dolphins need some O-line help after five guys left for free agency. If Quinn is still here, the Dolphins will not pass him up.
10. Texans: Darrelle Revis - This team has a lot of needs, and a starter opposite Dunta Robinson is certainly one of them. I agree this might seem a bit early, but QBs and CBs almost always seem to climb on draft day. This is another possible landing spot for Brown, if he is available. If Leon Hall were still available, he would go ahead of Revis.
11. 49ers: Jamaal Anderson - DE is this team's biggest need, and a couple good ones should be available right here. I like both Anderson and Adam Carriker, and I think both would be a good fit. I'll flip a coin and say Anderson. Alan Branch is a possibility here, but I am predicting a big slide for him due to injury and productivity concerns.
12. Bills: Patrick Willis - Great talent that fits a need. Should be a perfect fit. A much better fit than reaching for a second-round talent like Marshawn Lynch. I could see them trading down though, if Willis is gone, and picking up a LB like Paul Posluszny or Lawrence Timmons later.
13. Rams: Amobi Okoye - I know some people think Okoye will be gone before now, but I don't see where. There are some possibilities, I guess (like the 49ers, Vikings, or Texans), but I think this is about where he belongs. Even then, i think there is a possibility that the Rams could chase Carriker or Anderson if either one is still here. I also haven't ruled out Ted Ginn, Jr., despite the signing of Dante Hall.
14. Panthers: Reggie Nelson - Safety might be this team's biggest need, and Nelson is the second best safety in the draft. It might be a little early for him, but I don't know how much they could afford to move down and still grab him. Greg Olsen is getting a lot of press at this point, but he's one of those workout warriors and the benefit of a weak TE class. I think the Panthers can afford to wait for a TE. If, for some reason, Patrick Willis is still here, he would probably be the pick.
15. Steelers: Paul Posluszny - Posluszny has the benefit of being a local selection and a guy that can aid in the transition from 3-4 to 4-3. Adam Carriker and Lawrence timmons are another couple of guys that could really help them due to their versatility.
16. Packers: Marshawn Lynch - The primary benefactor of a weak RB class, but he does have good hands and is better than anything the Pack currently has.A WR like Ted Ginn, Jr., Robert Meacham, or Dawyne Bowe could get a look here, in case Buffalo felt desperate enough to take Lynch.
17. Jaguars: Adam Carriker - The Jaguars are in a position similar to the Lions; they have taken a lot of WRs in the first round lately, and to take another one who fails to actually have first round talent could make them look foolish. Fortunately, Carriker could still be here, despite a lot of teams giving him looks. If he's gone, Jarvis Moss gets the nod. If Reggie Nelson is still available, he's the pick. If they are all gone, the Jags may have no other choice than to (sigh) take the best WR available.
18. Bengals: Ted Ginn, Jr. - I know... they already have two of the better wideouts in the league. Why should they throw away a first round pick on another WR? One good reason is that Chris Henry will miss half the season (and probably not come back in perfect football condition). He also offers them an upgrade as a returner. The Bengals really need another corner, but it's too late for Hall or Revis and perhaps too early for Houston or Ross. I think it would be too much to hope that a guy like Jamaal Anderson could slip this far, but he'd be a nice fit.
19. Titans: Robert Meacham - The exodus of Titans' receivers continued this year with the departures of Bobby Wade and Drew Bennett. Local boy Meacham seems almost too good to be true here. Ginn and Bowe are other possibilities at this position. If Carriker were still here, he would get a sniff. Another option is a possible reach to Charles Johnson.
20. Giants: Joe Staley - Kiper and others have said that the Giants have fallen in love with this guy. They might like to move down to get him, but they would be afraid he might not be there if they did. Lawrence Timmons would be a nice fit here if they decide it's too early for Staley. Posluszny would also get a look if he was still available. Another possible reach would be Aaron Ross.
21. Broncos: Alan Branch - I give in. I initially thought Branch might slide out of the first round, but he makes too much sense here, even with productivity and injury concerns. Heck, if Shanny was willing to take on the entire Browns D-line, why not Branch? Carriker and Jarvis Moss are considerations here too.
22. Cowboys: Dwayne Bowe - Owens and Glenn are both getting old (and Owens could end his own season in any given minute). I think the Cowboys would like to upgrade the secondary here, but Reggie Nelson might be gone, and it is a bit too soon for the next batch of CBs, but they will give Aaron Ross a look anyway.
23. Chiefs: Aaron Ross - Every year it looks like the Chiefs just HAVE to address their weak WR corps, but they never do. Even with the wealth of talent at the position in this draft, they probably still won't. Surtain and Law are old and slowing down. They have very little behind those two. Justin Harrell could start getting feelers around this spot.
24. Patriots: Brandon Meriweather - It;s always tough to decide how a team with two first-rounders will approach their first pick. They have some concerns at CB, Safety, and ILB. Meriweather is a top fifteen talent who slips due to some character issues, but he fits a need and Belichick has a lot of high-character guys on his roster to guide him. Greg Olsen would be an interesting choice here, as well (but he might be available when they pick again). If Joe Staley is still sitting here, the Patriots could have a difficult decision.
25. Jets: Greg Olsen - I'm hearing all sorts of Jets fans getting very excited about the chance that Olsen could drop here. It seems like a luxury pick, but the are Jets are a playoff team, right? I really think they need to upgrade at CB, but it's too early to grab the next one. You never know though.
26. Eagles: Jarvis Moss - The Eagles would be happy to take whatever guy slides to them that shouldn't have: Jarvis Moss, Dwayne Bowe, Paul Posluszny, Lawrence Timmons, Aaron Ross, Alan Branch.
27. Saints: Chris Houston - Is there anybody who doesn't think New Orleans will take the best CB available with this pick? Aaaron Ross could still be on the board too. They could possibly throw us a curve and grab a falling WR though.
28. Patriots: David Harris - I have heard this pick is a lock. A LOCK, Jerry! But if by chance I have been completely misled, Tony Ugoh, Marcus McCauley, and Jon Beason are possibilities.
29. Ravens: Tony Ugoh - They'd prefer it if Joe Staley dropped to them, but I don't think it's happening. The next tier of CBs are also an option: Daymeion Hughes, Tanard Jackson, and Marcus McCaughley. There's an outside shot that they reach for Ryan Kalil.
30. Chargers: Lawrence Timmons - When A.J. has drafted late, he has just played the waiting game to see what good player has slipped through the cracks. Timmons is similar to Donnie Edwards, so this pick works out well for them. If a primo WR dropped to them, it would be more of a luxury pick, but it's entirely possible. Don't expect them to reach for one though. (None of this Aundre Allison, Anthony Gonzales, or Sidney Rice crap.)
31. Bears: Justin Harrel - If not for his torn bicep, Harrel may have been a top ten pick.. We could see Ben Grubbs or Dwayne Jarret here if they decide the injury factor is too much.
32. Colts: Jon Beason - Super Bowl winners often have the luxury of drafting the best player available. The Colts lost a lot on defense, like Cato June. In this case, it works out well for them either way. If Justin Harrell is here, he could be tempting.
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Possibly. I have seen Rouse projected into the last first/early second quite a bit though. You could be right though. The last time the Chargers drafted late, they just waited around to see who would drop to them. It's very possible they do the same.
