DFS data leak: employees cheating? (1 Viewer)

[freeannyong]

Keep in mind Ethan and PetrGibbons have been killing in MLB where there is none of this Thursday data to go from. This isn't just a one sport application.

 

[James Daulton]

Are people really questioning that he used his insider info to profit on Fanduel? Of course he did. The vast majority of his winnings are in 2015 on FD when he started working with DK. This will bring down DFS.

 

[snellman]

Keep in mind Ethan and PetrGibbons have been killing in MLB where there is none of this Thursday data to go from. This isn't just a one sport application.

I think that is where a lot of this ownership data is coming from. It has not been proven that he had it for MLB, but this along with the month long "very hot streak" he had in MLB is what is raising the eyebrows. Hot streaks are not uncommon, but this is one heck of a hot streak and combined with the story it really makes you wonder, especially the way the sites are handling it.

As I said before, knowing ownership in baseball would be a lot bigger of an advantage in baseball than football because baseball is a true daily sport where you don't have the advantage of a Thurs-Sun break to dissect lineups and get an idea of ownership.

This is definitely going to be an interesting thing to watch and may be like watching a car wreck. The thread over at RG is 73 pages long and growing very fast.

 

[Skoo]

Did nobody look at that article that showed his lineup and see how close the ownership %'s were between the two sites? I realize it's only one example, but they're pretty darn close.

Yeah, I but I have a very strong feeling that was a cherry-picked lineup.

If we are looking for an explanation for how a guy can become so +EV to explain this Ethan dude's run, ownership percentages simply ain't enough to explain it. We can debate how much of an edge it gives you, even if he's traded information with a FD employee (something for which there is no evidence whatsoever, so folks should probably calm down on those accusations). But there can't be any real question that the edge isn't THAT great. If his recent run isn't just variance from a top 0.001% player, then for those seeking an "explanation" it has to be something more nefarious.

http://larrybrownsports.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/ethan-haskell-mlb-fanduel.jpg

 

[Scoresman]

So assuming Congress gets involved, what's the most likely end game here? A complete ban on DFS? A lot of articles say things like "tighter regulations". What does that mean?

I guess what I'm getting at is that I need my fix and dont want DFS to go away.

 

[Apple Jack]

Are people really questioning that he used his insider info to profit on Fanduel? Of course he did. The vast majority of his winnings are in 2015 on FD when he started working with DK. This will bring down DFS.

WE'RE ALL GONNA DIE!!!!!!

 

[chet]

Did nobody look at that article that showed his lineup and see how close the ownership %'s were between the two sites? I realize it's only one example, but they're pretty darn close.

Yeah, I but I have a very strong feeling that was a cherry-picked lineup.

If we are looking for an explanation for how a guy can become so +EV to explain this Ethan dude's run, ownership percentages simply ain't enough to explain it. We can debate how much of an edge it gives you, even if he's traded information with a FD employee (something for which there is no evidence whatsoever, so folks should probably calm down on those accusations). But there can't be any real question that the edge isn't THAT great. If his recent run isn't just variance from a top 0.001% player, then for those seeking an "explanation" it has to be something more nefarious.

http://larrybrownsports.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/ethan-haskell-mlb-fanduel.jpg

Smoking gun.

 

[Tennessee_ATO]

Did nobody look at that article that showed his lineup and see how close the ownership %'s were between the two sites? I realize it's only one example, but they're pretty darn close.

Yeah, I but I have a very strong feeling that was a cherry-picked lineup.

If we are looking for an explanation for how a guy can become so +EV to explain this Ethan dude's run, ownership percentages simply ain't enough to explain it. We can debate how much of an edge it gives you, even if he's traded information with a FD employee (something for which there is no evidence whatsoever, so folks should probably calm down on those accusations). But there can't be any real question that the edge isn't THAT great. If his recent run isn't just variance from a top 0.001% player, then for those seeking an "explanation" it has to be something more nefarious.

http://larrybrownsports.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/ethan-haskell-mlb-fanduel.jpg

I know what his run has been. My point is that whatever edge is gained from ownership percentages isn't sufficient to "explain" that type of a run.

 

[Apple Jack]

So assuming Congress gets involved, what's the most likely end game here? A complete ban on DFS? A lot of articles say things like "tighter regulations". What does that mean?

I guess what I'm getting at is that I need my fix and dont want DFS to go away.

Probably teams being encrypted at the very least, if not just making ownership info public. But a good place to start is making it company policy, and preferably law, that employees not be permitted to play the games. Especially those with access to data that can be used to gain an advantage.

 

[chet]

Hulk is right in that having DK ownership info and using it on FD isn't the max EV play. Figuring a way to use that info to get the same FD info is the play and apparently what happened. It should be pretty easy for both companies to figure out who the prime suspects are.

Their joint statement denying any wrongdoing is disgusting IMO.

 

[Peyton Marino]

Did nobody look at that article that showed his lineup and see how close the ownership %'s were between the two sites? I realize it's only one example, but they're pretty darn close.

Yeah, I but I have a very strong feeling that was a cherry-picked lineup.

If we are looking for an explanation for how a guy can become so +EV to explain this Ethan dude's run, ownership percentages simply ain't enough to explain it. We can debate how much of an edge it gives you, even if he's traded information with a FD employee (something for which there is no evidence whatsoever, so folks should probably calm down on those accusations). But there can't be any real question that the edge isn't THAT great. If his recent run isn't just variance from a top 0.001% player, then for those seeking an "explanation" it has to be something more nefarious.

http://larrybrownsports.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/ethan-haskell-mlb-fanduel.jpg

I know what his run has been. My point is that whatever edge is gained from ownership percentages isn't sufficient to "explain" that type of a run.

that's fine to hold that opinion, but any edge is unacceptable.

 

[JimmyJabroni]

Pulled my winnings out today just in case there's a huge run and they don't have the cash to cover it. Going to leave $50 in for fun.

I would say don't have any more money in there than you are okay with losing, which is whatever you'd be willing to put in play in a week. No real reason anyway to have your season long bankroll in the account because it's super easy to add and withdraw funds.

 

[Scoresman]

Contests sure look like they're filling at the same rate as usual.

 

[karmarooster]

I'm actually starting to wonder if Week 5 will be tougher than usual due to lots of casual fans pulling out.

 

[Peyton Marino]

Contests sure look like they're filling at the same rate as usual.

it is noon on a tuesday fam

 

[Tennessee_ATO]

Did nobody look at that article that showed his lineup and see how close the ownership %'s were between the two sites? I realize it's only one example, but they're pretty darn close.

Yeah, I but I have a very strong feeling that was a cherry-picked lineup.

If we are looking for an explanation for how a guy can become so +EV to explain this Ethan dude's run, ownership percentages simply ain't enough to explain it. We can debate how much of an edge it gives you, even if he's traded information with a FD employee (something for which there is no evidence whatsoever, so folks should probably calm down on those accusations). But there can't be any real question that the edge isn't THAT great. If his recent run isn't just variance from a top 0.001% player, then for those seeking an "explanation" it has to be something more nefarious.

http://larrybrownsports.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/ethan-haskell-mlb-fanduel.jpg

I know what his run has been. My point is that whatever edge is gained from ownership percentages isn't sufficient to "explain" that type of a run.

that's fine to hold that opinion, but any edge is unacceptable.

Well, that's an overstatement. We're all looking for an "edge". Any edge obtained from non-public information is problematic, especially if that information is traded for more helpful information in violation of company policy at the very least.

But that isn't my point.

For those who think that Ethan's monster August in MLB is prima facie evidence of cheating on his part, ownership percentages can't possibly be the only explanation.

First of all, everyone is assuming that all of those dollar signs represent positive days for Ethan. Maybe they do, but what we don't know is how much he had in play every day. If I win $500 in a tournament, I'm in the black for that day guaranteed. A $10,000 hit for a guy with $50,000 in play is still in the red. My assumption is that most of those days, if not all of them, were big winners for Ethan. But in fairness that is an assumption on my part.

For the sake of the argument, let's assume Ethan was a big winner every day with a dollar sign on it. Knowing ownership percentages simply doesn't give someone the edge to literally dominate GPPs like that. Again, if the outcome is what makes people conclude "cheating", then the "cheating" required to explain that outcome is something more than just ownership percentages.

 

[Scoresman]

Contests sure look like they're filling at the same rate as usual.

it is noon on a tuesday fam

It's 9 am.

 

[Apple Jack]

I'm actually starting to wonder if Week 5 will be tougher than usual due to lots of casual fans pulling out.

I think the opposite. I think bigger players are more likely to scale back, as they're the ones most invested. A lot of casual fans aren't going to hear about it and/or play so low stakes they don't gaf.

 

[Chaos Commish]

Ownership %s certainly can explain that type of run, particularly if the run is about gpps. Is it?

Question: Have you ever entered 100 or more unique LUs into the same gpp? I have. I did last weekend and it paid nicely. If you're not familiar with this approach to dfs, then maybe that explains why some of you are arguing nonsense about the power of this data.

Hulk is a good dude and I apologize for chuckling at his comments, but you all need to check yourselves when disagreeing with Dodds on this issue. If I had ownership data in advance, especially at DK where I've been maintaining a 5 figure balance since December, I think I'd go nuts with the entries.

 

[Skoo]

For those who think that Ethan's monster August in MLB is prima facie evidence of cheating on his part, ownership percentages can't possibly be the only explanation.

For the sake of the argument, let's assume Ethan was a big winner every day with a dollar sign on it. Knowing ownership percentages simply doesn't give someone the edge to literally dominate GPPs like that. Again, if the outcome is what makes people conclude "cheating", then the "cheating" required to explain that outcome is something more than just ownership percentages.

So, you think that it's more likely that this guy is either the luckiest or the smartest guy on earth?

It can be kind of tough to see because the math is complicated, but having the ownership % ahead of time is pretty much the ONLY way to have a success rate like that in large GPP's.

 

[Ramblin Wreck]

I think the only way they can prevent this is to release owner percentage for all players Thursday night when the game starts.. if everyone has the same data then this type of "insider trading" would be squashed..

It's a start but they've been caught changing lineups before.

Now this would be a huge deal.Condia changed his lineup after kickoff? How?!?!

never happened

Prove it never happened

 

[Bobcat10]

Ownership %s certainly can explain that type of run, particularly if the run is about gpps. Is it?

Question: Have you ever entered 100 or more unique LUs into the same gpp? I have. I did last weekend and it paid nicely. If you're not familiar with this approach to dfs, then maybe that explains why some of you are arguing nonsense about the power of this data.

Hulk is a good dude and I apologize for chuckling at his comments, but you all need to check yourselves when disagreeing with Dodds on this issue. If I had ownership data in advance, especially at DK where I've been maintaining a 5 figure balance since December, I think I'd go nuts with the entries.

The NBA season couldn't come fast enough for you.

 

[Tennessee_ATO]

Ownership %s certainly can explain that type of run, particularly if the run is about gpps. Is it?

Question: Have you ever entered 100 or more unique LUs into the same gpp? I have. I did last weekend and it paid nicely. If you're not familiar with this approach to dfs, then maybe that explains why some of you are arguing nonsense about the power of this data.

Hulk is a good dude and I apologize for chuckling at his comments, but you all need to check yourselves when disagreeing with Dodds on this issue. If I had ownership data in advance, especially at DK where I've been maintaining a 5 figure balance since December, I think I'd go nuts with the entries.

Sure, I get it. The problem if that's the sole "edge" Ethan had, is the Larry Brown Sports graphic that so many folks take as prima facie evidence of cheating is way misleading (for example). If Ethan was burying GPPs with unique lineups every day, then his net is less than folks are assuming based on that very limited information. Those days without dollar signs on them likely saw him lose more money than 99% of DFS have lost in a month, let alone in a day. Obviously he would have dozens upon dozens of mini-cashes that aren't reflected in that calendar, but those are all likely loser days.

Like I said before, if the dude had the holy grail of insider information to make a fortune, he's an idiot for (a) his Twitter post and (b) betting the way he did. If he stays under the radar, he could have milked this for multiple seasons across every sport.

 

[(HULK)]

Ownership %s certainly can explain that type of run, particularly if the run is about gpps. Is it?

Question: Have you ever entered 100 or more unique LUs into the same gpp? I have. I did last weekend and it paid nicely. If you're not familiar with this approach to dfs, then maybe that explains why some of you are arguing nonsense about the power of this data.

Hulk is a good dude and I apologize for chuckling at his comments, but you all need to check yourselves when disagreeing with Dodds on this issue. If I had ownership data in advance, especially at DK where I've been maintaining a 5 figure balance since December, I think I'd go nuts with the entries.

I understand. I also understand folks have algos and bots updating their 100s of lineups.

Its why I don't play GPPs EXCEPT when there is a large overlay (and 1 lotto entry into the big contest each week for fun).

All of my bread is buttered in cash games. And at Yahoo, where it is currently still very soft.

 

[chet]

Where do you see overlays most often?

 

[Chaos Commish]

Ownership %s certainly can explain that type of run, particularly if the run is about gpps. Is it?

Question: Have you ever entered 100 or more unique LUs into the same gpp? I have. I did last weekend and it paid nicely. If you're not familiar with this approach to dfs, then maybe that explains why some of you are arguing nonsense about the power of this data.

Hulk is a good dude and I apologize for chuckling at his comments, but you all need to check yourselves when disagreeing with Dodds on this issue. If I had ownership data in advance, especially at DK where I've been maintaining a 5 figure balance since December, I think I'd go nuts with the entries.

Sure, I get it. The problem if that's the sole "edge" Ethan had, is the Larry Brown Sports graphic that so many folks take as prima facie evidence of cheating is way misleading (for example). If Ethan was burying GPPs with unique lineups every day, then his net is less than folks are assuming based on that very limited information. Those days without dollar signs on them likely saw him lose more money than 99% of DFS have lost in a month, let alone in a day. Obviously he would have dozens upon dozens of mini-cashes that aren't reflected in that calendar, but those are all likely loser days.

Like I said before, if the dude had the holy grail of insider information to make a fortune, he's an idiot for (a) his Twitter post and (b) betting the way he did. If he stays under the radar, he could have milked this for multiple seasons across every sport.

Okay, but what you're saying here (1st paragraph) is a little different than saying the inside information couldn't explain the run. It can. But I agree with your reply without trying to hard to analyze the details. I've seen Max Dulury lose a massive percentage of his entries in gpps and no one ever talks about that. Condia nearly went belly up last spring with NBA (rumor to explain his hiatus with substantial supporting evidence in my bank account). The same could happen to Ethan with the data, but he has a significant edge on plucking the low owned difference makers. Significant. Will it always work? Obviously not. But it is an awfully juicy job he has, being the ONLY one with access to the data. He really should have never been allowed to play anywhere once given that position.

We'll probably never know the whole story, but I am inclined to believe Ethan regarding the mistake on most angles except whether or not he was generating FD LUs based on simple calculations from DK inside information. As heavily as he plays, + being the only one with access, it's unlikely from my perspective that he wouldn't craft multiple LUs around information crossing his desk. Even if he didn't, which cannot be proved, DK was incredibly irresponsible putting him in that position.

 

[Chaos Commish]

All of my bread is buttered in cash games. And at Yahoo, where it is currently still very soft.

I keep forgetting to seed an account there. I play Fan Duel for fun and small stakes. I hate kickers. I love flex options at wr,te,rb. I love late swaps. A junkie has an edge at Draft Kings because of these things, especially in hoops and baseball. By junkie I mean treating it like a full-time job. Thing is playing multiple sites, like Maurile, was too much for me, and adding Yahoo! feels like going back down that road. I may close out FD for Yahoo! though.

 

[Chaos Commish]

Where do you see overlays most often?

Check Maurile's tip of the week thread.

 

[Willie Neslon]

The guy who takes the biggest hit in all of this is Edward Norton. Won't be able to trust a word that comes out of his mouth from here on out. He'll only be cast as the shady liar now.

It'd be funny if the guy in the fanduel commercial who says he can beat his friends every single week in fanduel ended being a draftkings employee.

 

[Chaos Commish]

I think the only way they can prevent this is to release owner percentage for all players Thursday night when the game starts.. if everyone has the same data then this type of "insider trading" would be squashed..

It's a start but they've been caught changing lineups before.

Now this would be a huge deal.Condia changed his lineup after kickoff? How?!?!

never happened

Prove it never happened

You have to have some tin foil hat to doubt the explanation. It is right there in big print every time you edit a LU. I was h2h with him the night of the after start Tim Duncan swap. It creeped me out, but the explanation made sense. I have no issue with it. I tested it a few times to make it happen for one of my LUs, and it did happen. I believe they've lengthened the delay between upcoming and live to make it much more unlikely to happen, but back then it probably happened quite often and took a Condia glitch for everyone to freak out. We all know there's 1000s of eyes on his entries.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

It's not just ownership percentages from Thursday games. I'm sure an employee can get ownership percentages on Sunday games 10 minutes before kickoff too. The employee didn't just happen to get lucky and win $350K.

He did happen to get lucky -- extremely lucky.

A very good DFS player will have an ROI of maybe around 30% in a given non-overlayed contest. (I think I'm erring on the side of picking too high a number, but that's okay.)

Having percent-owned info from DraftKings to use at FanDuel will be quite helpful -- maybe bump that 30% to 50%. Trading with an accomplice from FanDuel to give you exact percentages in the contests you're playing will be an even bigger advantage. Let's bump it to 100%, which is unrealistically high, but for the sake of argument, let's say that this guy actually had an expected ROI of 100%.

His actual return was not 100% -- it was something along the lines of a kajillion percent. That is extreme luck. The effect of that luck absolutely swamped whatever edge he had.

The fact that some employees at DK and possibly other sites can get this info before everyone else has it is a real problem, and this crazy coincidence of timing is generating major publicity and bringing this problem to light, which needed to happen. But it is a crazy coincidence of timing. If the worst allegations about information-swapping are true, the guy should have expected to win around $50 with that lineup, on average, not $350,000. No matter how big his actual edge was (absent something more nefarious like changing his lineup at halftime), his results in this one contest were still 99.99% attributable to luck rather than edge.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

For those reasons, I think some regulation would be a good thing.

While pretending to fight against it, DK and FD want regulation to secure their duopoly.

The cheating employees do not help the situation with consumers and would not be the preferred way to usher in their goal of creating barriers to entry via regulation, but as bad as those employees' actions may be...the upside of paving a way to regulation is a big win for DK/FD.

This may be right.

 

[finger11]

I'm actually starting to wonder if Week 5 will be tougher than usual due to lots of casual fans pulling out.

I think the opposite. I think bigger players are more likely to scale back, as they're the ones most invested. A lot of casual fans aren't going to hear about it and/or play so low stakes they don't gaf.

General public definitely knows now. ESPN/Outside the lines just did a 20min roundtable about this.

 

[Tango]

For those reasons, I think some regulation would be a good thing.

While pretending to fight against it, DK and FD want regulation to secure their duopoly.

The cheating employees do not help the situation with consumers and would not be the preferred way to usher in their goal of creating barriers to entry via regulation, but as bad as those employees' actions may be...the upside of paving a way to regulation is a big win for DK/FD.

This may be right.

Yes this might appear to be a dark day for DK/FD--

But it's difficult to figure out if it's a dark cloud with a silver lining or a silver cloud with a dark lining.

 

[tjnc09]

Reminds me of "POTRIPPER" from online poker back in the day. While I am against cheating, these people have a free ride for life. But their greed is so overwhelming, they will ignore the fact that someone will soon realize their results are completely unrealistic.

 

[chet]

I'm actually starting to wonder if Week 5 will be tougher than usual due to lots of casual fans pulling out.

I think the opposite. I think bigger players are more likely to scale back, as they're the ones most invested. A lot of casual fans aren't going to hear about it and/or play so low stakes they don't gaf.

General public definitely knows now. ESPN/Outside the lines just did a 20min roundtable about this.

AJ--you're way off the mark. In addition to the NYT story, I've seen feature stories on both CNBC and BloombergTV in the last hour. I believe the vast majority of people who play at either DK or FD will hear about this story in one form or another.

 

[(HULK)]

All of my bread is buttered in cash games. And at Yahoo, where it is currently still very soft.

I keep forgetting to seed an account there. I play Fan Duel for fun and small stakes. I hate kickers. I love flex options at wr,te,rb. I love late swaps. A junkie has an edge at Draft Kings because of these things, especially in hoops and baseball. By junkie I mean treating it like a full-time job. Thing is playing multiple sites, like Maurile, was too much for me, and adding Yahoo! feels like going back down that road. I may close out FD for Yahoo! though.

200% deposit match bonus up to $2K.

It will take me years to clear that bonus, but I am enjoying the minimal rake right now.

 

[chet]

It's not just ownership percentages from Thursday games. I'm sure an employee can get ownership percentages on Sunday games 10 minutes before kickoff too. The employee didn't just happen to get lucky and win $350K.

He did happen to get lucky -- extremely lucky.

A very good DFS player will have an ROI of maybe around 30% in a given non-overlayed contest. (I think I'm erring on the side of picking too high a number, but that's okay.)

Having percent-owned info from DraftKings to use at FanDuel will be quite helpful -- maybe bump that 30% to 50%. Trading with an accomplice from FanDuel to give you exact percentages in the contests you're playing will be an even bigger advantage. Let's bump it to 100%, which is unrealistically high, but for the sake of argument, let's say that this guy actually had an expected ROI of 100%.

His actual return was not 100% -- it was something along the lines of a kajillion percent. That is extreme luck. The effect of that luck absolutely swamped whatever edge he had.

The fact that some employees at DK and possibly other sites can get this info before everyone else has it is a real problem, and this crazy coincidence of timing is generating major publicity and bringing this problem to light, which needed to happen. But it is a crazy coincidence of timing. If the worst allegations about information-swapping are true, the guy should have expected to win around $50 with that lineup, on average, not $350,000. No matter how big his actual edge was (absent something more nefarious like changing his lineup at halftime), his results in this one contest were still 99.99% attributable to luck rather than edge.

If your numbers are even close to correct, then it's very possible and probably likely that this cheating was beyond employees swapping ownership stats. Maybe they have the abillity to alter lineups which would be equivalent to the superuser poker accounts at Absolute Poker last decade.

When the money is as big as it is here, people will find ways to cheat.

 

[Skoo]

He did happen to get lucky -- extremely lucky.

A very good DFS player will have an ROI of maybe around 30% in a given non-overlayed contest. (I think I'm erring on the side of picking too high a number, but that's okay.)

Having percent-owned info from DraftKings to use at FanDuel will be quite helpful -- maybe bump that 30% to 50%. Trading with an accomplice from FanDuel to give you exact percentages in the contests you're playing will be an even bigger advantage. Let's bump it to 100%, which is unrealistically high, but for the sake of argument, let's say that this guy actually had an expected ROI of 100%.

His actual return was not 100% -- it was something along the lines of a kajillion percent. That is extreme luck. The effect of that luck absolutely swamped whatever edge he had.

The fact that some employees at DK and possibly other sites can get this info before everyone else has it is a real problem, and this crazy coincidence of timing is generating major publicity and bringing this problem to light, which needed to happen. But it is a crazy coincidence of timing. If the worst allegations about information-swapping are true, the guy should have expected to win around $50 with that lineup, on average, not $350,000. No matter how big his actual edge was (absent something more nefarious like changing his lineup at halftime), his results in this one contest were still 99.99% attributable to luck rather than edge.

Ok, maybe that explains one contest, but how can that possibly explain his baseball stats: http://larrybrownsports.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/ethan-haskell-fanduel-success.jpg

Some of his finishes in ONE MONTH:

1st out of 1,810

1st out of 12,889

1st out of 5,747

3rd out of 740

6th out of 1,333

7th out of 555

10th out of 2,506

11th out of 5,287

36 out of 9,195

Maybe I'm missing something here, but I fail to see how this is possible simply through luck or skill.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

I don't think it's possible to evaluate his baseball run without a lot more info about how many entries he had in how many contests on how many sites over how many months.

Riley's post in the RG thread tries to calculate how unlikely the run was by making a bunch of assumptions, but he gets the math wrong. The LarryBrownSports article also makes an attempt, but is misleading in the opposite direction.

We can't know the actual answer with the information currently available ... but I do expect DK and others to investigate the situation in the coming weeks.

 

[Willie Neslon]

Sure he was lucky on that one entry but I'm sure he has tons of entries with those lightly owned players. If those lightly owned guys hit he has his bases covered and a great chance at a high placing. These sites are making so much money and so heavily invested in it's mind blowing that they left themselves exposed like this by allowing employees to play. Without integrity those sites are worthless.

 

[RUSF18]

ESPN pulling sponsored daily fantasy sports segments from programming

 

[Ramblin Wreck]

He did happen to get lucky -- extremely lucky.

A very good DFS player will have an ROI of maybe around 30% in a given non-overlayed contest. (I think I'm erring on the side of picking too high a number, but that's okay.)

Having percent-owned info from DraftKings to use at FanDuel will be quite helpful -- maybe bump that 30% to 50%. Trading with an accomplice from FanDuel to give you exact percentages in the contests you're playing will be an even bigger advantage. Let's bump it to 100%, which is unrealistically high, but for the sake of argument, let's say that this guy actually had an expected ROI of 100%.

His actual return was not 100% -- it was something along the lines of a kajillion percent. That is extreme luck. The effect of that luck absolutely swamped whatever edge he had.

The fact that some employees at DK and possibly other sites can get this info before everyone else has it is a real problem, and this crazy coincidence of timing is generating major publicity and bringing this problem to light, which needed to happen. But it is a crazy coincidence of timing. If the worst allegations about information-swapping are true, the guy should have expected to win around $50 with that lineup, on average, not $350,000. No matter how big his actual edge was (absent something more nefarious like changing his lineup at halftime), his results in this one contest were still 99.99% attributable to luck rather than edge.

Ok, maybe that explains one contest, but how can that possibly explain his baseball stats: http://larrybrownsports.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/ethan-haskell-fanduel-success.jpg

Some of his finishes in ONE MONTH:

1st out of 1,810

1st out of 12,889

1st out of 5,747

3rd out of 740

6th out of 1,333

7th out of 555

10th out of 2,506

11th out of 5,287

36 out of 9,195

Maybe I'm missing something here, but I fail to see how this is possible simply through luck or skill.

He has a horseshoe shoved up his anal cavity?

 

[NixonMask]

On the one hand its possible he entered a few thousand contest entries that month. That would explain atleast part of the high level finishes. On the other hand he deleted his account and went into hiding prior to things even blowing up, Draftkings refuses to provide any kind of insight, and neither site is apparently willing to take any proactive steps to address any of it.

We may have turned into an irrational mob, but come on, thats the only way this could have played out based on their behavior.

 

[chet]

On the one hand its possible he entered a few thousand contest entries that month. That would explain atleast part of the high level finishes. On the other hand he deleted his account and went into hiding prior to things even blowing up, Draftkings refuses to provide any kind of insight, and neither site is apparently willing to take any proactive steps to address any of it.

We may have turned into an irrational mob, but come on, thats the only way this could have played out based on their behavior.

DK needs to release his account history if they have nothing to hide.

 

[karmarooster]

He did happen to get lucky -- extremely lucky.

A very good DFS player will have an ROI of maybe around 30% in a given non-overlayed contest. (I think I'm erring on the side of picking too high a number, but that's okay.)

Having percent-owned info from DraftKings to use at FanDuel will be quite helpful -- maybe bump that 30% to 50%. Trading with an accomplice from FanDuel to give you exact percentages in the contests you're playing will be an even bigger advantage. Let's bump it to 100%, which is unrealistically high, but for the sake of argument, let's say that this guy actually had an expected ROI of 100%.

His actual return was not 100% -- it was something along the lines of a kajillion percent. That is extreme luck. The effect of that luck absolutely swamped whatever edge he had.

The fact that some employees at DK and possibly other sites can get this info before everyone else has it is a real problem, and this crazy coincidence of timing is generating major publicity and bringing this problem to light, which needed to happen. But it is a crazy coincidence of timing. If the worst allegations about information-swapping are true, the guy should have expected to win around $50 with that lineup, on average, not $350,000. No matter how big his actual edge was (absent something more nefarious like changing his lineup at halftime), his results in this one contest were still 99.99% attributable to luck rather than edge.

Ok, maybe that explains one contest, but how can that possibly explain his baseball stats: http://larrybrownsports.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/ethan-haskell-fanduel-success.jpg

Some of his finishes in ONE MONTH:

1st out of 1,810

1st out of 12,889

1st out of 5,747

3rd out of 740

6th out of 1,333

7th out of 555

10th out of 2,506

11th out of 5,287

36 out of 9,195

Maybe I'm missing something here, but I fail to see how this is possible simply through luck or skill.

I don't think it's possible to evaluate his baseball run without a lot more info about how many entries he had in how many contests on how many sites over how many months.

Riley's post in the RG thread tries to calculate how unlikely the run was by making a bunch of assumptions, but he gets the math wrong. The LarryBrownSports article also makes an attempt, but is misleading in the opposite direction.

We can't know the actual answer with the information currently available ... but I do expect DK and others to investigate the situation in the coming weeks.

You should run the numbers, MT, assuming he had max entries into each contest. Still a major assumption, presumably he could've max entered another contest and not cashed a single lineup.

There are so, so many questions here, I don't think we've scratched the surface.

 

[tjnc09]

It's not just ownership percentages from Thursday games. I'm sure an employee can get ownership percentages on Sunday games 10 minutes before kickoff too. The employee didn't just happen to get lucky and win $350K.

He did happen to get lucky -- extremely lucky.

A very good DFS player will have an ROI of maybe around 30% in a given non-overlayed contest. (I think I'm erring on the side of picking too high a number, but that's okay.)

Having percent-owned info from DraftKings to use at FanDuel will be quite helpful -- maybe bump that 30% to 50%. Trading with an accomplice from FanDuel to give you exact percentages in the contests you're playing will be an even bigger advantage. Let's bump it to 100%, which is unrealistically high, but for the sake of argument, let's say that this guy actually had an expected ROI of 100%.

His actual return was not 100% -- it was something along the lines of a kajillion percent. That is extreme luck. The effect of that luck absolutely swamped whatever edge he had.

The fact that some employees at DK and possibly other sites can get this info before everyone else has it is a real problem, and this crazy coincidence of timing is generating major publicity and bringing this problem to light, which needed to happen. But it is a crazy coincidence of timing. If the worst allegations about information-swapping are true, the guy should have expected to win around $50 with that lineup, on average, not $350,000. No matter how big his actual edge was (absent something more nefarious like changing his lineup at halftime), his results in this one contest were still 99.99% attributable to luck rather than edge.

If your numbers are even close to correct, then it's very possible and probably likely that this cheating was beyond employees swapping ownership stats. Maybe they have the abillity to alter lineups which would be equivalent to the superuser poker accounts at Absolute Poker last decade.

When the money is as big as it is here, people will find ways to cheat.

Yep, I mentioned POTRIPPER a few posts up.

I remember a while ago there was concern about ownership % changing after the games started. I doubt much thought was given to it a few months ago.

But in a huge tournament, it's impossible to accurately monitor everyone's lineups. It would be very easy to change the lineup after the fact and no one notice. That is a problem especially since that gives the person the most incentive to cheat in those huge tournaments.

 

[Apple Jack]

I'm actually starting to wonder if Week 5 will be tougher than usual due to lots of casual fans pulling out.

I think the opposite. I think bigger players are more likely to scale back, as they're the ones most invested. A lot of casual fans aren't going to hear about it and/or play so low stakes they don't gaf.

General public definitely knows now. ESPN/Outside the lines just did a 20min roundtable about this.

AJ--you're way off the mark. In addition to the NYT story, I've seen feature stories on both CNBC and BloombergTV in the last hour. I believe the vast majority of people who play at either DK or FD will hear about this story in one form or another.

See bolded. I'm going to keep playing as are all my work friends who play. Don't know anybody other than punchsox on the internet who is boycotting. This thread is even prompting me to open a yahoo account.

 

[NixonMask]

There is a long thread on rotogrinders from last year about Condias NBA fanduel lineups one week. A number of people in contests with him claimed his players changed well after the start of the games on a specific night. Fanduel claimed due to his high volume of entries the system took longer than usual to update on a last minute swap.

Again, could actually be the system and nothing shady at all, but perception is the only thing that matters right now.

 

[kittenmittens]

This DFS thing just blew up so fast... it's outgrown itself.

This time it is just about insider abuse... and if we know about this what do we not know about? What are their internal security audits like? Do they conduct business like a bank or like a fly by night website?

They now handle so much money that there is going to be incentive for hackers to attempt to gain access. How well is site and system security audited? You can bet that if there is a compromise, hackers will do what they can to manipulate outcomes without being detected - with the golden ticket being the hackers ability to modify lineups after the game starts.

They aren't earning any trust points (Draftkings) with their scammy "deposit bonus" that expires well before you could reasonably hope to earn it either. Their commercials (Fanduel as well) are also pretty awful ("The only difference between me and people who didn't win is that I played Fanduel!") in that they seem to outwardly target gambling addicts or naive folks with scammy claims. It's almost like they are trying to get it made illegal - killing the golden goose by proving that it is what is exactly what it was not supposed to be (gambling).

Then again, the state lottery pays out at like 50% so... yeah...