What's funny is how I (we, mostly, I would guess) like to look at what I sold and hope it loses value so that it "was a good trade". But once the asset is gone ... it really makes no difference whether it goes up or down or stays the same. If the player/pick becomes a dynasty top 10 overall player ... you don't own him. If he becomes barely rosterable ... you also don't own him. Just like stock trading too ... if you sell $1,000 worth of shares, and those same shares become worth $200 the next day, you probably celebrate; if they become worth $5,000, you're probably kicking yourself. But once you sold those shares, you no longer have them, no matter what happens to their value, so your net worth is 100% unchanged by its future movements (assuming you don't have any other shares of that security). The only difference it makes is to the hypthetical "what if I didn't sell?" question. Which doesn't matter. Because you did sell. But it can be so hard not to think that way.
There is one aspect of this that’s relevant though - I sold Mike Evans, Chris Carson, Engram, Ingram, Fuller, ARob, Hopkins and several other aging assets because I predicted the assets would fall in value.
And over time that prediction has proved somewhat accurate. ARob & Carson both missed significant time in 2021 (Carson’s career ended), Hopkins was hurt / suspended, Evans had a nice 2021 but has fallen off of a cliff this year, etc.
You’re correct that those results do not affect my current team in the slightest. But it is definitely a good feeling to know you got out from under an asset before the floor fell out.
It may be immaterial to my current roster, but following your gut to act on a logical strategy is a learning moment.
In the league of this particular rebuild, the ~7 competing teams are all doing so with rapidly aging rosters - 6 of them in part due to giving me their 1sts to “go for it” and win now. That’s likely also going to work in my FA it over the next few years when I have one of the youngest rosters in the league.
It’s difficult to maintain excellence in a dynasty league - knowing when to sell is definitely an important skill. There will be successes & regrets, I’m sure. Nuk looks like he’s still got a lot left in the tank (and I dealt him for ‘21 1.08 with which I took Pitts, who’s now hurt) - that one might shape up to a regret. Time will tell.
But there is some big picture value to looking back at the results of deals to determine whether it was good or bad for you.
Yeah definitely valid point, and ... Well ... I'm definitely not saying that great and rapid depreciation of sold assets is not a good thing. I don't even know, it's almost paradoxical to me.
Facts:
(A) Making a good deal improves the quality of your team.
(B) The worse the future performance of assets sold, the better a given deal was.
(C) The future performance of assets sold does not affect your team's quality or value.
Those are all true, but it seems impossible to make them jibe. There's some distinction that has to be made, some distinction of "what are we actually talking about", but I don't know what it is, lol.
A + B, therefore, (D) the worse the future performance of assets sold, the more improved your team is due to the trade.
So, future performance of sold assets affects your team's
improvement from the trade, but not its
current quality.
So, I guess that's the distinction. If you want to be improved, then the future performance matters. If you want to be good, it doesn't matter. Basically, if the sold assets do poorly, it says, "Hey, you improved! Good job!" but at the same time it says "Your team's value before the trade was actually worse than the market thought." If they excel instead, it says "You lost value. That sucks." but at the same time says "Hey! You were better before than the market thought! Nice." I'm sure there's a textbook somewhere that explains this a lot more clearly ... just typing as I'm thinking ... Way too much.
Basically ... Which is better? Take 1 step back, then 2 steps forward? Or take 2 steps forward, then 1 step back? In the former case, it was,
and is, a great thing that you took the 2 steps forward, but then you found out later that you had already taken a step back. In the latter case, it is unfortunate that you took the 1 step back, but you now find out you had already taken 2 steps forward. Either way, you end up in the same place.
