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Dion Lewis (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter ex-ghost
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fightingillini
Footballguy
Certainly an option.
Lewis unfortunately has a choice. If he wants to get paid, he most likely has to leave NE. Lewis just doesn't have much leverage with NE......they can do exactly what Snorkelson suggested above and sign Crowell and Ellington cheap....and NE doesn't miss a beat.
My take is that if NE wins the Superbowl this year, Lewis takes the money and goes elsewhere.
zamboni
Footballguy
He may anyway having already won two rings.
As mentioned above, I will be interested to see what Detroit does with Patricia taking on the head gig there.
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Insoxicated
I don't understand why everyone assumes that:
1) New England won't pay him anywhere near market value
2) Everyone assumes he's going to be paid like an elite RB, given his history
My guess is he's not looking at much more than 5-6MM/yr from any team. He's a gadget back with an injury history who happens to be excelling in the NE system. McCoy (a proven elite every-down back) just signed for $8MM.
As stated earlier, the Pats had 7MM between Burkhead and Gillislee this year. While BB likes depth at RB for obvious reasons, I'm not sure he can't offer a 3yr deal at 5-6MM and lock up Lewis. Not sure he's going to get MUCH more elsewhere.. and I'm guessing he'd take a small to moderate pay cut to stay in Titletown.
White + Lewis + Depth would be a strong backfield for NE as this window begins the early stages of closing.
1) New England won't pay him anywhere near market value
2) Everyone assumes he's going to be paid like an elite RB, given his history
My guess is he's not looking at much more than 5-6MM/yr from any team. He's a gadget back with an injury history who happens to be excelling in the NE system. McCoy (a proven elite every-down back) just signed for $8MM.
As stated earlier, the Pats had 7MM between Burkhead and Gillislee this year. While BB likes depth at RB for obvious reasons, I'm not sure he can't offer a 3yr deal at 5-6MM and lock up Lewis. Not sure he's going to get MUCH more elsewhere.. and I'm guessing he'd take a small to moderate pay cut to stay in Titletown.
White + Lewis + Depth would be a strong backfield for NE as this window begins the early stages of closing.
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Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
hardcoredx
Footballguy
He will get a good offer, 4-5 Million/yr with health incentives.
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Insoxicated
From whom?
Curious about your list of teams that utilize a gadget back of his type, have a history of / cap space of paying $4-5MM/yr for that back, and don't currently have a back of that type in place.
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Anarchy99
Footballguy
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Insoxicated
The Patriots are not afraid to spend a bit of money on RB when they are deemed to be a key factor in their gameplan:
• 2017 Patriots allocated almost 7% of cap space ($11MM) to RB position - 4th most in the NFL
• 2018 Patriots have allocated 2.8% of cap space (4.6MM) to RB position - 21st most in the NFL
- If they cut Gillislee that will basically cut that in half.... Dropping to 27th in NFL.
Pats have a hole at RB, have the money to spend, and know that Lewis is an excellent fit in their system. There are several backs in FA that fit this profile. I'm not sure the market will bear a big payday for Lewis... at least one that the Pats can't come close enough to matching.
• 2017 Patriots allocated almost 7% of cap space ($11MM) to RB position - 4th most in the NFL
• 2018 Patriots have allocated 2.8% of cap space (4.6MM) to RB position - 21st most in the NFL
- If they cut Gillislee that will basically cut that in half.... Dropping to 27th in NFL.
Pats have a hole at RB, have the money to spend, and know that Lewis is an excellent fit in their system. There are several backs in FA that fit this profile. I'm not sure the market will bear a big payday for Lewis... at least one that the Pats can't come close enough to matching.
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zamboni
Footballguy
Definitely agree that no one is going to break the bank for Lewis, but if a team is offering him a bigger role (similar to what he has gotten the last few weeks when Burkhead went down) and the money is comparable to what the Pats offer, he may prefer the bigger role.
I think you are all low balling Dion a little bit on what he'll make.
I think RB pay and value in general has been on the rise. He's not in this class of RB but Freeman just got $22M guaranteed and Bell will at a minimum make around $27M for 17-18. Then factor in we went years without a first round RB and we've had 3 chosen in top 10 in past two drafts, 4 in top 10 of last 3 drafts.
Also another positive for Dion is McDaniels and Patricia appear to be headed to teams that need a RB upgrade and depending how they feel about him could help his leverage.
He's not going to break the bank but I think he'll be pulling in more than say $10M on the first two years of his contract and guarantees. Somewhere between $10-15M the first two years.
I think RB pay and value in general has been on the rise. He's not in this class of RB but Freeman just got $22M guaranteed and Bell will at a minimum make around $27M for 17-18. Then factor in we went years without a first round RB and we've had 3 chosen in top 10 in past two drafts, 4 in top 10 of last 3 drafts.
Also another positive for Dion is McDaniels and Patricia appear to be headed to teams that need a RB upgrade and depending how they feel about him could help his leverage.
He's not going to break the bank but I think he'll be pulling in more than say $10M on the first two years of his contract and guarantees. Somewhere between $10-15M the first two years.
joey
Footballguy
From whom?
Curious about your list of teams that utilize a gadget back of his type, have a history of / cap space of paying $4-5MM/yr for that back, and don't currently have a back of that type in place.
In the Pats games that I watched this year, Lewis looked like more than just a "gadget back" to me. He looked like a 3 down back in that he seemed to run inside and outside, as well as catch the ball. I know it's late in his career and "he is what he is" at this point, but I'm very interested to see where he might land and if he has a chance to be a lead back again (either with another team, or with the Pats, especially if they let one of the other backs go).
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Insoxicated
No disrespect intended to Lewis with that designation... to be fair I consider Kamara in that same category. Not a power back.. more of a quick pass catching back who excel at receiving out of the backfield. While this does not preclude ability to run the ball very well, generally these guys are not built for every-down between the tackles duty.
Lewis is 5'8" 195lbs. Certainly not the smallest back in the game, but he's a good bit smaller than McCoy (5'11" 205lbs), who is closer to a prototypical back. Kamara is 5'10" 215lbs.. closer to prototypical, himself.
It would be interesting, but I like that the Pats seemingly "saved" him for the playoff stretch. I do wonder how much of that was due to legitimate injury, and how much was to keep him fresh/healthy so he could shine in December and January.
joey
Footballguy
fair enough.
That said, while Lewis looked really solid to me in the last game, running and receiving, here comes the Pats and James White taking away key TDs (from a fantasy pov).
So even though he "looks like" a 3-down back to me, it doesn't really matter if he stays in New England and the Pats rotate their RBs so much. Maybe him ending up in Detroit would be the best thing (for us holding Lewis on the cheap, of course
)
@ Lewis being a gadget back. I guess Warrick Dunn was a gadget back, too.
Snorkelson
Footballguy
Detroit needs a thumper, not 5’8” 195 Lewis. That said, Barry was 5’8”, 200. But Lewis isn’t what they need. Blount would fit, not that I want him.NE ties though....fair enough.
That said, while Lewis looked really solid to me in the last game, running and receiving, here comes the Pats and James White taking away key TDs (from a fantasy pov).
So even though he "looks like" a 3-down back to me, it doesn't really matter if he stays in New England and the Pats rotate their RBs so much. Maybe him ending up in Detroit would be the best thing (for us holding Lewis on the cheap, of course
zamboni
Footballguy
Why do they need a thumper? Seems like a guy that can do just about everything would be valuable to any team. They could always complement him with a short-yardage type thumper.
Snorkelson
Footballguy
Because we have 2 guys that are smallish rbs and can’t pick up a 2nd and 1. Lewis is a more expensive version of riddick. He did well in New England in a timeshare, nothing about lewis’ career says feature back. He’s a nice player, but he is coming off a career year of 1000 total yards. Why spend money on another redundant rb talent? He’s a nice role player but he’s nothing special.zamboni said:
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
Snorkelson
Footballguy
Through their first 5 seasons they have similar production, one is 5’8” 195, one is 5’9” 202. Why is lewis suddenly so awesome? He’s done very little up to last year, and I hate signing a guy with one year of production coming off his career year, while having a bunch of injury riddled seasons leading up to it. If riddick somehow got 180 carries this year they would have very similar numbers through 6 seasons. Lewis also hasn’t been the healthiest guy through his career, so I’d be concerned about relying on him to shoulder 200+ carries. If anything I would believe patricia and quinn, rather than run out and pay Lewis, would go with a cheap rbbc like New England has done for years and years. Detroit needs someone with at least average size to punch it through short ydg situations.
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
I didn't say he is awesome. I said he's nothing like Riddick. One guy is purely a receiving back. The other isn't.
zamboni
Footballguy
I'm guessing that the odds of Lewis leaving NE just went up, assuming someone throws him at least as much as the Pats do. As a competitor, have to imagine that he's not happy with lackluster usage in the Super Bowl - after being the bellcow for several weeks. That and the very realistic possibility that the Pats championship window is closing.
It will be interesting to see what interest he generates in free agency.
It will be interesting to see what interest he generates in free agency.
garlicduck
Footballguy
Ha! Why would you say that? They've already been established by Vegas as the team to beat next year. Plus, Lewis is not exactly young himself - he'll be 28 at the start of next season. I'm not saying if he's leaving or not but if he does it won't be because the Pats are not going to be competitive in the near future.
zamboni
Footballguy
Everyone is getting a year older, including Brady himself, OC and DC likely to leave, and other teams in the AFC (Jacksonville, KC, etc.) may narrow the gap.
But this is about Lewis - yes, he'll be 28 but not ancient and doesn't have a lot of tread on the tires.
NeverEnough
Footballguy
garlicduck
Footballguy
Where is Lewis going to have a better chance to win over the next 3 years? Sure other teams get better etc. but they all have issues...KC will have a rookie QB and their OC Mike Nagy left the team for the Bears. Jax still has Bortles as their QB (is that good or bad?).
The Pats do have an extra pick in the early 2nd round for Garappolo and they will get Edelman and their best defensive player, Donte Hightower back.
garlicduck
Footballguy
I don't disagree but it's hard to "bet against" the Pats since they are there almost every year. Here are the odds for next year - Philly below GB seems more disrespectful to me.
ODDS TO WIN SUPER BOWL LIII
New England Patriots +350
Green Bay Packers +800
Philadelphia Eagles +850
Pittsburgh Steelers +1000
Minnesota Vikings +1200
Los Angeles Rams +1750
San Francisco 49ers +1800
Houston Texans +1850
New Orleans Saints +1850
Jacksonville Jaguars +2000
Atlanta Falcons +2000
Dallas Cowboys +2000
Oakland Raiders +2100
Carolina Panthers +2500
Seattle Seahawks +2500
Kansas City Chiefs +3000
Los Angeles Chargers +3000
Denver Broncos +3500
Indianapolis Colts +4000
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +4000
Baltimore Ravens +5000
Arizona Cardinals +5000
Tennessee Titans +5000
Detroit Lions +5000
Miami Dolphins +7000
Washington Redskins +7000
New York Giants +5500
New York Jets +10000
Chicago Bears +10000
Cincinnati Bengals +10000
Buffalo Bills +10000
Cleveland Browns +10000
Anarchy99
Footballguy
I'd agree but I think it's 99% about money as it should be. He's "only" made $5M in in his entire career since 2011 and this might be his last shot. I think these other things like playing time, loyalty, winning,etc, etc will only factor in if the money is not that close. If as I suspect money is what it's mainly about this does not qualify him as greedy or being all about the money, it would just qualify him as being financially responsible.
Chaka
Footballguy
I am pretty sure the Vegas numbers reflect public opinion as much as anything at this point.
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
I would think that anybody buying into the NE way would come to expect that on offense. Unless your name is Brady and maybe Gronk, the usage from week to week is so variable based on matchups, especially at RB.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Maybe he’s more interested in getting paid since this will be his last chance at a decent payday. There’s other places where he can win.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
With Mike Vrabel as the head coach, and with Indy and Houston getting their QBs back (plus Jacksonville)? My guess is theyre more likely to be one of the statistical six teams that don’t make it back to the playoffs.
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I guess. But they leaned on him, in a way, and it worked. He got zero targets in the Super Bowl despite averaging 9 in the playoff games. Last time he got 9 touches or less is week 4.
If ever there was a time to use him up, it was last night. Yet, he had his lowest snaps since week 5. Very odd.
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Thunderlips
Footballguy
Thunderlips
Footballguy
He's already won one.....so I imagine he'd go for the money.
Just about any team in the NFL would pay money for his skillset.
Thunderlips
Footballguy
K.C. to me.
Andy Reid might not know anything about clock management.....but he's pretty good at QBs. If he thinks Mahomes is ready....I wouldn't disagree with him.
ETA: Broncos at 3500? How much does that come down if Cousins signs there?
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Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
BB is a genius though. It must have been for a highly logical reason. They put up like 600 yards of offense.I guess. But they leaned on him, in a way, and it worked. He got zero targets in the Super Bowl despite averaging 9 in the playoff games. Last time he got 9 touches or less is week 4.
If ever there was a time to use him up, it was last night. Yet, he had his lowest snaps since week 5. Very odd.
zamboni
Footballguy
No doubt, but the question is how much money a team will pay when there is a strong RB rookie class entering the NFL draft.
NeverEnough
Footballguy
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Insoxicated
Reportedly bad week of practice leading up to the super bowl, compounded by violation of team rules.
It was a rhetorical question. We'll probably never get the real answer.Reportedly bad week of practice leading up to the super bowl, compounded by violation of team rules.
Snorkelson
Footballguy
If I’m Brady I’m confident I can win that division another 3-4 years. Miami/buffalo/nyj all on the bottom of the odds list.
Snorkelson
Footballguy
I think the market for Lewis won’t be as robust as some people may think. Strong rookie class, 28 year old coming off a career year, niche back, not ideal size for a feature role. He is part of a committee wherever he goes. A nice stack of guaranteed money is what he should be looking for.
