Boston
Footballguy
Agreedd..and a lengthy injury history...I do think calling him a niche back is selling him short but I don't see him being the type of back a team will commit big $ to...
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Dion Lewis (2 Viewers)
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Snorkelson
Footballguy
Is he supposed to be an early down guy? He’s small. I don’t think he’s small and compact/nimble like warrick Dunn, but maybe he’s a best case comparison, assuming he can produce a couple more years. He may be a niche back in the sense that he fits a NE niche role perfectly, but doesn’t project as the same player in different systems imo.
But he's not actually a niche back. He's small, but he is effective between the tackles, he's also really good in space, and he's also a very effective pass catcher. What's niche about that?
I'm not saying he's going to get some huge contract, but he's not a niche player and he's capable of being the lead back. Not something crazy like the snap share Bell gets or DJ got in 2016, but he could be the Freeman of a backfield. Freeman is in a committee with Coleman, but he's the lead of that committee. He's got the skills to be either the Ingram or Kamara of a backfield.
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Boston
Footballguy
He actually runs between the tackles well...if there was beef here locally it was they did not use him in space enough...
Thunderlips
Footballguy
![[icon]](/data/avatars/m/5/5167.jpg?1660313464){kind=avatar}
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Insoxicated
Yep. I'd say he's more of a Kamara, but he was the lead back for NE with 180 rushes and a 5.0ypc. He'll never be a 300 carry 4 down bruiser, but he's extremely effective in damn near every facet of the game. Injuries are a concern, of course.
My guess is he gets offers somewhere around 3yrs/$13-15MM with about half that guaranteed. That's money I think NE can match, and a good chance they will, given his success in the system and their lack of backfield options heading into 2018.
Snorkelson
Footballguy
He was kind of a lead back this year- 11 carries a game? We can agree to disagree I suppose. Yes, he was effective this year. Yes, he can go between the tackles, especially for a 5’8” 195-200 lbs back. And he can catch. However, I don’t think after all these years in the league that last season is what to expect going forward. Health has been an issue and he’s shown flashes, but I don’t want to commit 5 mil a year to a committee guy. Perhaps “niche back” pigeonholes guys into “short ydg” or “passing down” backs, and Lewis can do both, but still needs someone to do the other part, so he’s more of a role player than cog to plan your offense around. He’s being thrown into trades (1.10/Lewis for 1.04) and I just don’t see the value. Better football player than fantasy guy for me.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
You call last season a "career year" and statistically speaking it was - however he looked even better in 2015 before he tore his ACL. Some staffers on this site were calling him a top 5 dynasty back at that time and Belichick liked him enough to extend him with a decent contact in-season. Lewis has been snake bitten by injuries (looked great in the preseason for Cleveland but then broke his leg) - so that will surely hurt his market value, but you are underselling his game. Earlier in this thread (or another) you said he was the same player as Theo Riddick - which tells me you have not watched him play much. Riddick is basically a slot WR lining up in the backfield while Lewis is a complete back - he can do it all. While I agree he's not likely to be a workhorse, he's fully capable of being a team's lead back, and during the second half of NE's season he surely was their lead back.
I didn't say they used him like Freeman this year. I was saying he's capable of that kind of role.
I can't endorse your logic about why he won't be utilized in 2018. Yes, it is apparent that he's been under-utilized historically, but over time he's shown he can effectively run between tackles, make people miss in space, and do impressive work as a receiver... so now that he's a free agent on the verge of getting a nice contract, you think the coaching staff that gets him is going to dial back his work because of how he was utilized in seasons prior to 2017?? That's pretty silly logic.
Health has been an issue, but not due to overuse. Didn't he have a non-contact ACL injury and then complications from it? Non-contact injuries don't occur due to too many carries or running between the tackles. The next coaching staff that gets him is going to know what kind of player they are getting. How he fits in with the other players on the roster will determine his share of the snaps/touches, not some preconceived notion that he needs to be limited due to historical trends prior to 2017 or due to the fear of another ACL tear.
Snorkelson
Footballguy
I try to ignore injury history as a tag. It’s something to consider but unless it’s a head/neck injury or a foot injury I don’t knock a guy too much. I concede he looked good before he got injured, and he had a solid season, but I’m reticent to think that he will trend up or will improve on the numbers he put up this year. I know nobody is likely predicting “top 5 rb dynasty” value at this point (one year later.) Look back through the trades and he was included on some head scratchers.FF Ninja said:
My riddick comp is more body type/size comparison and he has receiving skills. Lewis has between the tackles ability, but I don’t think anyone wants to give him 15+ carries a game on the year.
Let’s not get too hung up on semantics- niche back may not quite apply but committee back probably does. Lewis is a quality back that can do some things well but probably needs to have his touches managed and therefore will have a low week to week floor and a limited ceiling. If he hasn’t carried a full workload up to now with several seasons in I don’t see how a coaching staff who signs him can count on anything more than that. He’s been underutilized up to now, and I don’t think anyone is bumping him up to 200 carries
You make very good points. There certainly is the chance they are not going back to the playoffs.Dr. Octopus said:
For a moment, consider this: Mariota is an elite talent. Granted, he had a down year but I believe this was due to the way he was used and to injuries. His skill set is top shelf and I think Vrabel is smart enough to cater the offensive philosophy to the things Mariota does well. The run game is a strength and the WR corps are more than good enough to put points on the board. I think people are underselling how good this offense can and will be next year. On defense, there is certainly many need areas, but this is where Vrabel excels. I love his focus and intangibles. He is a leader. The group will respond to him and I believe they are a solid dark horse choice.
From a fantasy perspective, he could easily trend up if he's more involved in the passing game, like he should be. I wasn't getting hung up on semantics, which is why I pointed out how valuable Freeman has been despite being in a committee (although I firmly believe "niche back" is a bad descriptor of Lewis). Let's face it, most RBs are in what we'd consider a committee. And if we expect Lewis to get around $5M/year, then he'll be sharing the load to some extent. I mean, James White and Riddick are getting about $4M/year and no OC wants to see them running the ball. Latavius Murray and Gio are getting about $5M/year.
So yeah, I expect him to be in a committee, but if he's the bigger part of a committee, he could fare well. I hope he's signed somewhere that will use him well. With his route running skills, I'd love to see him take part of the role vacated by Bell if he leaves.
If the Pats pay him to stick around, let's hope they use him like they did in the 2nd half of the season. Projecting his last 8 games to 16 games would result in 244-1250-8 + 50-44-312-6. The TDs aren't likely, but there's no reason he couldn't put up yardage like that even with White + [a FA/rookie to be named later] as part of the committee.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
The #10 RB in terms of average salary for 2018 is Gio Bernard at $5.167 million (if he even stays at that level). I am not sure a long-term deal averaging $5 million a season would be realistic for Lewis. He's missed a ton of games with multiple injuries. This was the first time in his career he had 100 carries in a season since being drafted in 2011. Plus he is turning 28 early in the season. Just guessing, but maybe he'll get a 3 year, $12 million deal. That's basically Forte or Powell money . . . and both of those guys ranked in the Top 15-20 best paid running backs.
I suppose I should ask where people think Lewis ranks in terms of the league hierarchy for running backs? Is there a team that would make him a primary, heavy usage back for an entire season?
I suppose I should ask where people think Lewis ranks in terms of the league hierarchy for running backs? Is there a team that would make him a primary, heavy usage back for an entire season?
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I guess two "obvious" landing spots would be Detroit and Indy if the two former Pats coaches wanted to bring along some of their guys. Both teams are in need of backfield help as well.
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Insoxicated
Isn't Lewis at least somewhat redundant with the existing options in the DET backfield?
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Maybe in the respect that he is a RB and so are they. I'm sincerely not sure what you are asking - he is good out of the backfield (as is Riddick) but more complete. This is assuming they want to give up on Abdullah and some reports have indicated that. I guess, "yes" in the sense they would now have 3 "small" backs if they did keep Abdullah.
Snorkelson
Footballguy
Let’s assume for a moment that Lewis goes elsewhere. What rbs are leaving the bills, Jets, or dolphins that NE can sign?
Anarchy99
Footballguy
NE gave White a $4 million a year extension last year, and they paid Gillislee and Burkhead over $3 million a year. They were one of the higher spending teams at the RB position last year. I would not rule them out for spending more to keep Lewis without spending more at the RB position. So they could sign Lewis for closer to what he wants, draft a RB, and still stick within their RB budget.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
Feels like a lions move to overpay lewis
Snorkelson
Footballguy
I hope no one in Michigan thinks Lewis is the answer to the lions lack of a run game.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
It depends what Lewis wants, what the market will bear, and what NE sets their bar for him at. The Pats paid $6 million a year 12 years ago for Cory Dillon to split time.
I agree that NE will not overpay for Lewis and they will likey over him less than other teams would. It will be up to Lewis to stay for less or take more money elsewhere.
He's not made enough in his career to have rich people problems. It's almost more of a need then a want for him to maximize his pay, this is his last shot at a decent contract in all likelihood and his career earnings are in the $5-6M range going back to 2011. If it's real close I'm sure other factors will exists, but he just can't afford to leave hundreds or thousands and for sure not millions on the table.
We'll see but if the report from that article is that he's looking for $15M over 3 years with about $10M guaranteed I think he'll get it or be really close.
I think Lewis is moving on. The market, while not likely getting to the apex of Lewis' aspirations, will bear more fruit for him then staying with the Patriots. Coupling Lewis' injury history and the desire for a longer term deal will likely produce a breaking point. It's too bad, too. The match is a great one for fantasy owners, of which I am one.
Well worded response but only thing I differently from a fantasy angle is that despite the prolific Pat's offense I'd rather he left NE. He could end up in a worse spot but I'd rather take that risk in hopes he goes to a place that provides more consistent usage, especially in the passing game.
Gopher State
Footballguy
Seattlemenobrown said:
Gopher State
Footballguy
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
Demarco murray on the cheap for the pats
kittenmittens
Footballguy
Giants, Redskins, Colts or 49ers.
Other possible destinations... Dolphins, Raiders, Ravens, Texans.
Lots of teams need RBs.
Other possible destinations... Dolphins, Raiders, Ravens, Texans.
Lots of teams need RBs.
ffweasel
Weasel Power
Sarlakticacid
Footballguy
9x6.5 a year. He'd be stoked with that!!Anarchy99 said:
zamboni
Footballguy
Only if Lynch is gone though, I would imagine - otherwise, I don't think Lewis would want to go there.
Snorkelson
Footballguy
What will the pats ever do at rb? Other than plug in whoever and get production whether it’s blount, Lewis, burkhead, doesn’t matter. They’ll have someone in there and they’ll be a nice rb2 most weeks with upside for rb1. With downside for a no show due to gameplan.
Boston
Footballguy
White is the only constant...they trust him and gave him a pretty decent contract...as stated I believe Lewis will be gone...Burkhead is an x-factor...my guess is they would want him back as he played pretty well but he is a free agent and in this year's market every FA is a candidate to get overpaid...IMO he is probably the guy to watch to see how much of a need this position becomes (i.e. if he and Lewis walk it becomes a big need)...Gilleslie is also around although he was the forgotten man last year...I believe if they cut him they save just over 2 million...with their holes on defense they may need that $...so that means there will definitely be at least one new face in the backfield and possibly two...that second round pick they obtained from San Fran should be right in the area where there will be quality RBs not named Barkley available...would love to see them grab an RB like Michel or Jones there or a Chubb type of RB with their other second-rounder to go with White and Burkhead...
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Snorkelson
Footballguy
I think guice and Chubb go rd 1, rojo, penny, Michel go rd 2. I was being a little sarcastic, as it hasn’t really mattered who they put back there, they get production.
Boston
Footballguy
Agreed...they always figure it out...but if they lose both Lewis and Burkhead it will be real interesting to see what they bring in as those free agent values may not be such a great value this offseason... Jeremy Hill is a guy that would not bother me...he could use a change of scenery and might be able to become a Blount-type of RB for them...
Snorkelson
Footballguy
Crowell, I could even see them squeezing a decent year out of someone like gore or Martin. Cj anderson or demarco Murray if they become available, or a number of rookies. Lots of decent rb landing spots for Lewis, but lots of cheaper (and imo better) options.
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Insoxicated
Dion Lewis is a very good football player when he is healthy. The problem is that Lewis is rarely healthy. The Patriots were so scared of him getting hurt they kept him in bubble wrap half of the season last year.
Lewis is an excellent player and by most accounts a good guy. I hope he gets paid somewhere, but I just can’t justify giving a player a ton of money when he physically can’t be counted on.
Lewis is an excellent player and by most accounts a good guy. I hope he gets paid somewhere, but I just can’t justify giving a player a ton of money when he physically can’t be counted on.
I saw that latest mock draft that Matt Miller put out and he had Chubb in round 4. I think he splits the middle and goes rounds 2-3 myself which I guess just mean none of us really know but at least fair to speculate he could available to NE in round 2.Snorkelson said:
As good as as this RB class is I would not surprised if only Barkley was a first round one pick. Not a real shocking take when considering how good last years class was and only two went. My best guess is two RB's go in round one and if I had to list out what I think is most likely amount of RB's to go in round one using 1-4 I'd go:
2
1
3
4
Snorkelson
Footballguy
Barkley
The next 5 could go in any order imo, assuming Jones gets healthy and runs a 40. Teams will have guice, Chubb, Jones, penny, and Michel in very different orders I think. Same with the WRs to be honest. I probably am a little bullish on my 1-2 rd prediction though.
