matuski
Footballguy
People that don't have Lewis haven't figured out the kid is in line for a top 10 season.
Throwing a low end WR2 at him isn't going to stick.
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Dion Lewis (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter ex-ghost
- Start date
Throwing a low end WR2 at him isn't going to stick.
cubbie5150
Footballguy
Yay me. I'm back on the BB RB joyride. I swore a couple seasons ago I would never play again, but I'm allowing myself to believe in Lewis. A big chunk of my FAAB budget is now gone, and Lewis is in my lineup. The first time I see Cadet or White on the field, I know I'll freak out a little.
Shutout
Footballguy
In many ways it feels like foster all over again. Not saying Lewis' impact will be that but just another case where if you have him you've watched, you see it, etc. If you don't have him, you just can't get your head around it being real.
But we all probably know this: This game this weekend looks, on paper, to be the kind of game where Blount is featured and nobody would be surprised to see a Lewis line of 4/14 and 4/26/0. BUT...IF Lewis keeps rolling this week, A LOT of people are going to be ringing the phones of Dion Lewis owners after this one because, let's face it, if they feature him heavily in this game and it goes as expected, we all KNOW that New England is out for blood this year and they like what they have.
Bojang0301
Omar4Heisman
I like Lewis. He has been a valuable cog through two weeks and fits the Pats O like a glove. You can't say you feel totally comfortable with the Pats RB however. Every week I start him I think to myself "is this the week BB sits him or punishs him for fumbling". Lightning in a bottle and sort of terrifying, especially in daily leagues.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
If he can make it through next weeks game without fumbling, I'll be a pig in ####. Another fumble next week and I'm trying to sell high.
Detroit Revival
Footballguy
His perceived value isn't close to his actual value to many people. People can always cite the fumbles or Belicheck as reasons not to trade for him. I have him in a league and the only offers I have are qb2s and flex plays.
Fantasysports1
Footballguy
Could be great as your flex in PPR leagues. Maybe even as your RB 2 if Dion maintains a solid role going forward.
ericttspikes
Footballguy
I don't know. I have him and have doubts it is real. He does have opportunity and in a good O. I don't think Foster is a good comp, he wasn't on his 3rd team in 4 years when he hit. Maybe Forsett? Who knows. I didn't believe in Forsett last year either. What I do know is that the Patriots will be bucking recent history if Lewis becomes "the guy". When it comes to Patriot RBs they have been situational and so far that has been the case with Lewis. I don't agree that the Jags set up for Blount. They have a good line like the Bills. I can see Lewis doing well again. Against weaker fronts and in eight weeks when the the weather turns? Well see about that.
Shutout
Footballguy
A flex or RB 2? In my ppr leagues, he's RB6 or something right now. Literally, if he were on any of 28 or so other teams, this guy would be a hands down find of the year/every week starter.
TheDirtyWord
Footballguy
I've chimed in a couple of time on this thread since I scooped him prior to the season for 1% of my FAAB. So you like to see those penny stocks pan out...
Alot of comparisons have been thrown out, but I don't know if I've seen this one. A shiftier and tougher Darren Sproles. The thing that's impressed me about Lewis is his ability to gain yards in traffic. His TD run was a perfect example. At first it looked like he'd be lucky to gain 1-2 yards, but his jump cut found a hole and then he barrelled his way into the end zone. And I say barrelled because he took on a tackler on his way to the end zone and drove him back for the TD.
But if you look at how Belichick has used his RB's since Blount came back to the Pats, it shows that if Lewis is the new Vereen at worst...Lewis will simply be on the field ALOT. Blount's first game with the Pats was Week 12: His snap counts game-by-game including the playoffs were as follows (he did not play Week 16).
16, 19, 31, 15, 22, 15, 42, 23 - the game he missed Bolden/Gray combined for 23. Fact is the big back averaged 23 snaps/game. Vereen during the same spell? 39.
With that said, I think Lewis is going to be a guy that's going to be tough to trade. How many people rushed to acquire Justin Forsett last year? Perception has as much do with trade value as production, maybe even more. And especially early in the season, when FFers are struggling to make sense of the changing landscape week after week after having it been static for 8 months, if you do trade him, you're likely not getting like value.
But if you ask me, so long as he stays healthy, Lewis is a huge part of the Pats offense in 2015.
Alot of comparisons have been thrown out, but I don't know if I've seen this one. A shiftier and tougher Darren Sproles. The thing that's impressed me about Lewis is his ability to gain yards in traffic. His TD run was a perfect example. At first it looked like he'd be lucky to gain 1-2 yards, but his jump cut found a hole and then he barrelled his way into the end zone. And I say barrelled because he took on a tackler on his way to the end zone and drove him back for the TD.
But if you look at how Belichick has used his RB's since Blount came back to the Pats, it shows that if Lewis is the new Vereen at worst...Lewis will simply be on the field ALOT. Blount's first game with the Pats was Week 12: His snap counts game-by-game including the playoffs were as follows (he did not play Week 16).
16, 19, 31, 15, 22, 15, 42, 23 - the game he missed Bolden/Gray combined for 23. Fact is the big back averaged 23 snaps/game. Vereen during the same spell? 39.
With that said, I think Lewis is going to be a guy that's going to be tough to trade. How many people rushed to acquire Justin Forsett last year? Perception has as much do with trade value as production, maybe even more. And especially early in the season, when FFers are struggling to make sense of the changing landscape week after week after having it been static for 8 months, if you do trade him, you're likely not getting like value.
But if you ask me, so long as he stays healthy, Lewis is a huge part of the Pats offense in 2015.
Chaka
Footballguy
Slow down. He's the find of the first two weeks and there is legitimate reason for skepticism.
Personally I am on board the D.Lewis train and am starting him with confidence (I'm not even in a PPR either) but I recognize that this party wagon may derail quick, fast and in-a-hurry.
Also I am not trying to trade him because I know it will take non-owners too long to jump aboard the train but since I believe in Lewis I am trying to move other guys with more name recognition like Ingram or Ivory.
Shutout
Footballguy
I mention Foster in the way it feels, not trying to compare the two players. I also would never say its like Forsett because Lewis is clearly more talented. Just my opinion. The difference in the path is that some people will recall that Lewis actually looked far and away the best RB in Cleveland in preseason that year and then he got hurt. We have seen Lewis perform every time he's had a chance. His problem has been he's either been stuck behind a guy that, until a year ago, most called the #1 dynasty Rb or he's been hurt.
He's now made the most out of his opportunity and it is showing big.
I read all that stuff about the Jags line too, etc, etc, but that's a number. And while it may be true, I think there are a lot of people who fully expect the Patriots to step on people's throats this year when they can and the Jags are a team they can. They will take the Jags out of their game by midway through the 2nd quarter and then it will simply be a matter of how they choose to pound them. If they want to just beat them badly, Blount can do that. But if they want to have an attitude that they want to score 40+ every week, they might leave Lewis in and that's what I was talking about. IF they keep that mentality all year, Lewis will be a big play.
Shutout
Footballguy
I agree with your words and I think most do also but in regards to saying he is "the find of the first two weeks", while it has to be true cause we only played two weeks, I'd challenge anyone to find a better candidate right now today.
Maybe two months ago we are talking about Parker coming on and being rookie of the year. Or maybe Perriman once he gets healthy. Or we might say Matt Jones or David Johnson established themselves as future top 10 dynasty RBs. But all those players are different in that we actually had them on a radar 5 months ago. THis guy has come from absolute "forgottensville" and will likely have every bit the impact that Forsett did last year. That's valuable.
Insein
Footballguy
Forgot how old this thread was but in making comparisons, I think this one is adequate.
Haven't seen this comparison, but as someone who owned Knowshon in 2013, this situation reminds me a little of that one. Standard caveats: BB never commits to a single RB, whereas Peyton loves having the one guy he can trust; Knowshon was a former 1st rounder, Lewis was a 5th and is already on his fourth team; etc. But the idea that this guy is putting up Top 10 numbers for a high-powered offense, and everyone refuses to believe it, just seems eerily familiar.
All that said, I own him in two leagues and am still not sure I'm starting him this week. I just feel like I need to see it in one more game with Blount on the roster and the Pats not facing a really tough run D.
All that said, I own him in two leagues and am still not sure I'm starting him this week. I just feel like I need to see it in one more game with Blount on the roster and the Pats not facing a really tough run D.
BroncoFreak_2K3
sucker for Orange
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Link found on roto world, Nice breakdown of bb historical rb touches.
http://blog.masslive.com/patriots/2015/09/new_england_patriots_running_b_8.html
Note highest percent of touches was 54 for a single player. Lewis is at 75 percent right now.
http://blog.masslive.com/patriots/2015/09/new_england_patriots_running_b_8.html
Note highest percent of touches was 54 for a single player. Lewis is at 75 percent right now.
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TheBottomLine
Footballguy
Probably starting this guy in PPR over Hyde, Freeman, and Abdullah this week. I am hesitant to, afraid I get burned, but IMO he's less risky than the other guys this week. Love Hyde but not his matchup.
Rick James
Footballguy
Starting over demarco Murray.
cubbie5150
Footballguy
Starting Dion over JStew, matchups/possible game plan be damned.
boilerdave
Footballguy
Starting Lewis over Randle in one league and over Forsett in another.
JFS171
Footballguy
Starting over Randle pretty confidently.
One thing I haven't seen discussed... everyone wants to find a form for this (Lewis is the Vereen/passing-down back; Blount is the big back). I think that's only natural given how the Patriots' backfield has played out in recent years.
I'm actually starting to think this is more a situation of "Get the lead" and "keep the lead" backs. My guess is Lewis is the former and Blount the latter. While BB isn't stupid and isn't going to run Blount into a brick wall 25 times just because he has the lead, if they're up big after the first 3 quarters this weekend, I expect to see Blount handling the clock-killing carries. Lewis just offers a versatility that they haven't had since the last time BB used a feature back in Corey Dillon. He can run inside and outside, and he's a tremendous receiver. That's HUGELY valuable.
Since I'm starting to buy into the notion that the Patriots are on the war path to prove last year was no joke, I don't expect a major role for those clock killing, "keep the lead" carries. My guess is their foot stays on the gas for 3 quarters plus every single week. Maybe Blount gets a series to give Dion a breather, but I'd bet Dion's the guy barring some major change (fumbling problem, injury, etc.).
One thing I haven't seen discussed... everyone wants to find a form for this (Lewis is the Vereen/passing-down back; Blount is the big back). I think that's only natural given how the Patriots' backfield has played out in recent years.
I'm actually starting to think this is more a situation of "Get the lead" and "keep the lead" backs. My guess is Lewis is the former and Blount the latter. While BB isn't stupid and isn't going to run Blount into a brick wall 25 times just because he has the lead, if they're up big after the first 3 quarters this weekend, I expect to see Blount handling the clock-killing carries. Lewis just offers a versatility that they haven't had since the last time BB used a feature back in Corey Dillon. He can run inside and outside, and he's a tremendous receiver. That's HUGELY valuable.
Since I'm starting to buy into the notion that the Patriots are on the war path to prove last year was no joke, I don't expect a major role for those clock killing, "keep the lead" carries. My guess is their foot stays on the gas for 3 quarters plus every single week. Maybe Blount gets a series to give Dion a breather, but I'd bet Dion's the guy barring some major change (fumbling problem, injury, etc.).
Chaka
Footballguy
I feel the same way. It really looks like they want to run up scores more than run out clocks.
![[icon]](/data/avatars/m/5/5167.jpg?1660313464){kind=avatar}
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Insoxicated
One thing I've learned over the last 15 years of playing this game is that the good is never as good, and the bad is never as bad as it seems. Regression to reality reigns supreme.
The fact that collectively everyone is rushing to start him over all sorts of folks has me bracing for a let down week (comparatively).
The fact that collectively everyone is rushing to start him over all sorts of folks has me bracing for a let down week (comparatively).
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ericttspikes
Footballguy
Even though the Pats dominated the first two games, they only won those games by a score each. This week vs. the Jags should put the "run up the score to prove it" theory to a test. I personally don't think they will, but who knows what is going on in BB's head.
Run It Up
Footballguy
They can't reasonably take their foot off the gas either way.
Pats biggest weakness is the deep passing game. Soft zone, bending not breaking only goes so far, the better QBs will still move the ball when they are in pass only mode. The Pats front seven is ridiculous though so I think the ballhawking will actually get better.
Pats biggest weakness is the deep passing game. Soft zone, bending not breaking only goes so far, the better QBs will still move the ball when they are in pass only mode. The Pats front seven is ridiculous though so I think the ballhawking will actually get better.
They went for it on 4th down several times against the Bills when they were leading 37 to 13. The box score is a very disingenuous view of how the game went.
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packersfan
Footballguy
They began the fourth quarter of last Sunday's game with a 24-point lead. On their first series of the fourth quarter Brady threw 8 straight passes (including penalties) without a single run. I think they're sending a clear message to the league about their intentions this season.
Shutout
Footballguy
This has been my thoughts as well. I think there is perhaps something there also that we don't see that teams do. Maybe something they learned a few years ago when they were so dominant along the lines of "once you get that reputation for scoring so much, teams come into games gambling more....and maybe that plays into Belichick's hands because they have such a good front seven." That's kinda out there but I've seen the Patriots enough over the years to know there is always a reason for everything they set up. Maybe they try to get up big when they can because they try to cover their DBs shortfalls. Just has to be something (or maybe its simply..."you pissed us off and now we're going to take it out on all y'all")
Road Warriors
Footballguy
Starting him over CJ Anderson and Jeremy Hill ( yes, through 2 weeks I have the all bust backfield ). Fully expect to see Blount with 20 carries, but IMO, Lewis in PPR has a reasonably high floor for a RB2/flex play.
ericttspikes
Footballguy
Very well could be. To me it had the vibe of sticking it to Rex and a division rival. The no use of Blount, and heavy Lewis usage also had a "f u Rex" feel to it since Rex gave them bulletin board material by saying to the press he was preparing for Blount and claiming he didn't even know Lewis' name. I think doing the same vs. the lowly Jags is different, but we'll see. Will be interesting to see what happens.
False. I have the all bust backfield. Anderson and Miller. Hill had a good first week. Anyway, I'm starting Lewis and Woodhead over them.
In terms of flying under the radar I think '2014 Justin Forsett' is a good comparison. Even though the sample size is small, it just has the feel that the 4/40 and 4/50 (and maybe a TD) stat line could be his relative frequency for the remainder of the season.
Full disclosure, I'm not a fan of the Pats but I own Dion in a 10 team PPR league and I am starting him over Justin Forsett this week. The offense and front seven are undeniable. Forsett's floor might be a little higher than Dion's but there are questions with Forsett's upside with Zo Taliafero getting red zone touches.
Having both Taliafero and Blount hovering around behind Forsett and Lewis worries me. It's just Blount worries me less, despite the BB factor, and for that reason I'm rolling with Dion for the time being.
Full disclosure, I'm not a fan of the Pats but I own Dion in a 10 team PPR league and I am starting him over Justin Forsett this week. The offense and front seven are undeniable. Forsett's floor might be a little higher than Dion's but there are questions with Forsett's upside with Zo Taliafero getting red zone touches.
Having both Taliafero and Blount hovering around behind Forsett and Lewis worries me. It's just Blount worries me less, despite the BB factor, and for that reason I'm rolling with Dion for the time being.
is this information not telling of what to expect from lewis???
2014
Running back totals: 440 touches, 2,060 yards
Breakdown of touches:
Shane Vereen, 33.6 percent (148 touches)
Stevan Ridley, 22.3 percent (98)
Jonas Gray, 20.5 percent (90)
LeGarrette Blount, 13.6 percent (60)
Brandon Bolden, 6.8 percent (30)
James White, 3.2 percent (14).
Note: If you roll Ridley, Blount and Gray all into one back, they account for 56.4 percent of the touches, still not an overwhelming figure.
Breakdown of total yards:
Vereen, 40.6 percent (838 yards)
Gray 20.1 percent (419)
Ridley, 17.3 percent (360)
Blount, 13.8 percent (285)
Bolden, 4.7 percent (97)
White 2.9 percent (61)
2013
Running back totals: 510 touches, 2,703 yards
Breakdown of touches:
Stevan Ridley, 36.8 percent (188 touches)
LeGarrette Blount, 30.4 percent (155)
Shane Vereen, 17.8 percent (91)
Brandon Bolden, 14.9 percent (76)
Breakdown of yards:
Ridley, 30.9 percent (835 yards)
Blount, 29.9 percent (810)
Vereen, 23.5 percent (635)
Bolden, 15.6 percent (423)
2012
Running back totals: 540 touches, 2,746 yards
Breakdown of touches:
Stevan Ridley, 54.8 percent (296 touches)
Danny Woodhead, 21.5 percent (116)
Shane Vereen, 12.9 percent (70)
Brandon Bolden, 10.7 percent (58)
Breakdown of yards:
Ridley, 47.8 percent (1,314 yards)
Woodhead, 27.2 percent (747)
Vereen, 14.6 percent (400)
Bolden, 10.4 percent (285)
2011
Running back totals: 414 touches, 1,936 yards
Breakdown of touches:
BenJarvus Green-Ellis, 45.9 percent (190 touches)
Danny Woodhead, 22.9 percent (95)
Stevan Ridley, 21.7 percent (90)
Kevin Faulk, 5.8 percent (24)
Shane Vereen, 3.6 percent (15)
Breakdown of yards:
Green-Ellis, 42.6 percent (826 yards)
Woodhead, 26.2 percent (508)
Ridley, 23.5 percent (454)
Faulk, 4.7 percent (91)
Vereen, 2.9 percent (57)
2010
Running back totals: 464 touches, 2,437 yards
Breakdown of touches:
BenJarvus Green-Ellis, 51.9 percent (241 touches)
Danny Woodhead, 28.2 percent (131)
Fred Taylor, 9.6 percent (45)
Sammy Morris, 5.8 percent (27)
Kevin Faulk, 3.0 percent (14)
Thomas Clayton, 1.3 percent (6)
Breakdown of yards:
Green-Ellis, 44.9 percent (1,093 yards)
Woodhead, 38 percent (926)
Taylor, 6.6 percent (161)
Morris, 5.5 percent (133)
Faulk, 4.4 percent (107)
Clayton, 0.7 percent (16)
mnmplayer
Footballguy
Warrick Dunn was shifty, but was not nearly as powerful. "Baby Barry" can lift more than his lineman at Pitt. Dunn is not a good comparison as he did not have nearly the power Dion has to finish a run pulling blockers into the end zone like
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Bojang0301
Omar4Heisman
I think most of us who were lucky enough to own him at this point are bracing for this weekend. Honestly I can deal with Blount getting the lions share as long as Lewis can put a 10 spot up between yards and catches. If he can be involved when the game plan clearly doesn't have him as the focus I will still view that as an extreme positive going forward.
mnmplayer
Footballguy
Good post. the thing is Lewis will be productive with even 40% of the touches, let alone 75%. If he settles in somewhere around 60%+ of touches it will be very productive.
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mnmplayer
Footballguy
Good post. Their D isn't very stingy at all so they will need to score a lot of points. Good for Dion.
Lionz will turn it around!
Footballguy
In a PPR he's legit but what about a STD league? is he above the likes of Gore/Stewart?
Sabertooth
Footballguy
Just glad I have the opportunity to start him over Demarco Murray. Things move pretty quick in the NFL. Who thiught I'd be saying that a month ago?
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Insoxicated
Not sure why you felt compelled to cut and paste a giant list of stats that were easily accessed through the link you posted minutes earlier. If folks wanted the data, they will click the link. If you MUST post long lists of stats that are readily available at a link you've also posted, you should use spoiler tags so the rest of us don't have to scroll through it.iamkoza said:
Just a little forum etiquette... feel free to disregard if that's your style.
matuski
Footballguy
Brady loves him.. I see perhaps a small drop in carries but still plenty of usage and touches.
Bojang0301
Omar4Heisman
Tough not to. Hard to sit a hot hand especially against a team like the Jags who, while on the rise, are not world beaters.
