Dion Lewis (3 Viewers)

[Air Stich]

In my ten team non ppr redraft league he is sitting on waivers, thinking about dropping Martin but I been burned so many times by NE running backs, it's hard to push the button

i wouldnt go that far. Martin is more of a sure thing

Depends what you need. If you need a guy you're sure will be a solid, playable RB 2/3, Martin is a lot less likely to get his usage jerked around.If Lewis turns out to be the feature back (especially if he continues to get goal-line carries, which I think he can succeed with despite his size) and that offense continues on a similar pace all year he could be a borderline RB1 and league-winner. I don't see that upside for Martin in Tampa. Especially in PPR.

he said non-PPR, Lewis doesn't have near as much value in those imo

Dion is RB5 in both PPR and non-PPR leagues. He's a stud in any format as long as he's healthy. I'd give up Doug Martin easily for Dion.

Doug Martin looks about as good as Joseph Randle and is on a BAD offense. Nion Dion looks elite and is on the BEST offense in the league. You guys can quibble about PPR vs non-PPR, and I'll take the guy with the huge upside in either.

 

[Tau837]

From PATRIOTS’ DION LEWIS OWNS TOP ELUSIVE RATING:

In recent years, the New England Patriots backfield has been a weekly “Who gets the carries?” lottery. However, after the opening two weeks of the 2015 season, the Pats seem to have the three-down back they have been missing: Dion Lewis. A fifth-round pick by the Eagles in 2011, Lewis is leading our elusive rating statistic through Week 2, having broken 17 tackles on 32 touches. This more-than-adequately replaces the departed Shane Vereen in the passing game, while also adding an extra dimension to their running game.

The elusive rating is a measure of a running back’s performance independent of his offensive line, taking into account his missed tackles forced (both running and receiving) and his yards after contact on run plays. After the first two weeks of the season, Lewis has an elusive rating of 181.1; last year, Le’Veon Bell led the league after two weeks with an elusive rating of 119.9...

 

[Insein]

I thought Lewis looked great in Cleveland, it's funny they did all that shuffling of RBs and they had Lewis all along. And he was at Philly. Amazing how some players can never get a chance unless they land in the right place. Would Woodhead have ever been anything if not for BB?

To be fair he was in Philly behind Shady in his prime. Not going o get used there.

 

[Bojang0301]

I thought Lewis looked great in Cleveland, it's funny they did all that shuffling of RBs and they had Lewis all along. And he was at Philly. Amazing how some players can never get a chance unless they land in the right place. Would Woodhead have ever been anything if not for BB?

To be fair he was in Philly behind Shady in his prime. Not going o get used there.

Woodhead is pretty damn good and was on Jets before Pats. Obviously it took some time for his talents to be utilized appropriately but I feel the comment would be like saying would Sproles have existed without Brees. I think it's clear he would have, just maybe not used as well as he has been.

 

[Stompin' Tom Connors]

Lewis Week 2 @ BUF

Thanks for compiling and posting. For those of you who watched all those plays, please describe your opinion of Lewis. What do you think after watching him?

First, thanks SSND for the video, fantastic!

Lewis was used for that game primarily in single back and 5-6 WR/spread formations. Not much pass pro evidence given playcalls, but Lewis responded to audibles at the line well and put himself in the right positions.

As a runner, he displays incredible elusiveness, shifting steps laterally and bursting upfield making solid yards after tackles. Uses blockers well, and even though he stutters at the line, he shows smart patience and the ability to accelerate through the holes. In red zone looks, he ran with decent power, so he's not a pure scatback and can run effectively between the tackles. But I imagine Blount is the guy in this situation.

As a receiver, he ran good routes and gained enough separation to be Brady's primary checkdown receiver on underneath routes. The fumble/turnover was unfortunate, and with a few over the last few games, it's definitely his biggest weakness. But as long as the Patriots go with spread/3-wide sets, Lewis will have a big role as a key offensive weapon.

We'll see what happens in this next game, and how his usage differs when game situation/plan needs to be focused on ball control/run game, but Lewis is a no-brainer PPR every week start, and a solid flex in standard for the time being.

 

[tone1oc]

I keep hearing he's a flex play..

Given 12 team leagues, this is pretty much saying he's a RB20-RB25ish. He is currently RB5 in standard in the most prolific offense that is going to pass a ton. Would a kind "shark" please list 10 RBs they'd start over him, much less 20.

Despite that fact he has passed the eye/metrics tests and drawn praise from BB, who never does that, there are these silly narratives set forth that are absurd to me.

 

[packersfan]

I keep hearing he's a flex play..

I think his floor is a flex option. I agree that to this point he's been much better than that and going forward his ceiling is much higher than that.

 

[Hoss Style]

I keep hearing he's a flex play..

Given 12 team leagues, this is pretty much saying he's a RB20-RB25ish. He is currently RB5 in standard in the most prolific offense that is going to pass a ton. Would a kind "shark" please list 10 RBs they'd start over him, much less 20.

Despite that fact he has passed the eye/metrics tests and drawn praise from BB, who never does that, there are these silly narratives set forth that are absurd to me.

Maybe they mean that you put him in your lineup, and then stand up and flex because you picked him up before anyone else.

 

[tone1oc]

I need names people.. Let's destroy this narrative.

Unless you believe BB is going to suddenly bench one of his best playmakers, because you know Stevan Ridley et al.

 

[packersfan]

I need names people.. Let's destroy this narrative.

Unless you believe BB is going to suddenly bench one of his best playmakers, because you know Stevan Ridley et al.

I can't think of too many times Belichick significantly reduced the role of one of his top playmakers. He removed Randy Moss his last year there but it was clear Moss had nothing left so the move was justified. The closest I can find is Jonas Gray losing his job the week after his 200-yard game. But Gray wasn't a dynamic playmaker by any stretch so I'm not sure even that is a good comparison.

Also, what exactly has Blount ever done in his career to warrant a huge role in any offense? Like I said earlier if Lewis puts an end to the fumbling I can't think of a single reason why his role would be significantly reduced. It's not like Blount is some superstar who needs to be heavily involved and, more importantly, Lewis' role sets up ideally for the type of offense the Patriots run. Comparisons with past Patriots' RBs don't hold a lot of water because none of those guys (i.e. Faulk, Woodhead or Vereen) offer the rushing/receiving combo skills Lewis possesses. He seems to be a different type of guy completely from what we've seen in recent years in NE.

 

[duaneok66]

He is an RB2 this year if he stops fumbling.

 

[Run It Up]

When Welker was having contract disputes the Pats basically pulled him from their gameplan.

 

[tone1oc]

He is an RB2 this year if he stops fumbling.

That sounds nice and all, but a whole lot less compelling when you start listing 10-15 RBs.

He's a low end RB1 until further notice.

 

[duaneok66]

wishful thinking - but hopefully so.

 

[tone1oc]

wishful thinking - but hopefully so.

Names... let's go

RB5 in standard right now.

 

[duaneok66]

who would I start over him?

Charles

McCoy (and I hate Shady)

Bell

Hyde

Hill

Woodhead

Lynch

Gurley (when ready)

Lacy

Peterson

Forte

so at best for me he is #12.

 

[packersfan]

When Welker was having contract disputes the Pats basically pulled him from their gameplan.

Permanently?

 

[Run It Up]

When Welker was having contract disputes the Pats basically pulled him from their gameplan.

Permanently?

Ofc not, not even Ridley got the bench permanently.

 

[tone1oc]

who would I start over him?

Charles

McCoy (and I hate Shady)

Bell

Hyde

Hill

Woodhead

Lynch

Gurley (when ready)

Lacy

Peterson

Forte

so at best for me he is #12.

So you agree, low end RB1.

Also, you are not starting Woodhead over him.. Stop.

Gurley isn't going to be full go for at least a few more weeks, and he's in a terrible offense.

 

[packersfan]

When Welker was having contract disputes the Pats basically pulled him from their gameplan.

Permanently?

Ofc not, not even Ridley got the bench permanently.

That's my point. If Lewis puts an end to the fumbling what legitimate reason would there be for Lewis' role to be reduced significantly? I can't think of a single one and I don't think Belichick is an idiot so bad coaching isn't an option for me either.

Again, I fully expect Blount's role to increase (it pretty much has to since it's been non-existent to this point) but at the very worst Lewis should have the old Vereen role with 5-6 rushing attempts per game on top of that. That puts him squarely in the RB2 discussion in PPR with the potential to be much more than that if he outperforms Blount in the run game.

Are we all gambling a bit? Damn right we are but if the gamble pays off this is looking like the offense you want to have it be a part of this season. Just like two years ago you wanted any part of the Denver offense if you could get it. This year it's looking like the Patriots' offense is the one to get in on (I think the Steelers have a high ceiling too but their key guys should all have been drafted).

 

[Stompin' Tom Connors]

wishful thinking - but hopefully so.

Names... let's go

RB5 in standard right now.

OK, ok, settle down.

Here are the RBs who I would have have to think real hard about sitting instead of Lewis with Blount's role still unsettled:

LeVeon Bell
Jamaal Charles
Adrian Peterson
Marshawn Lynch
Matt Forte
Eddie Lacy
Carlos Hyde
DeMarco Murray
Arian Foster
LeSean McCoy
Jeremy Hill
Chris Ivory
Mark Ingram
Justin Forsett
Here are some more RBs who I can see Lewis settling in with over the long term:

Andre Ellington
CJ Anderson
Todd Gurley
Frank Gore
Melvin Gordon

Potentially, can see these backs also being effective as Lewis over the long term:
Danny Woodhead
Alfred Morris
Lamar Miller
Ameer Abdullah

Don't get me wrong, I'm as high on Lewis as everyone else is here and hope he continues to have a top 10 trajectory. No question he's phenomenally talented and in the right fit in terms of role and scheme.

But it's way early yet, and just because he's #5 right now does not mean he'll stay that way over the long haul. Lot of football yet to play.

 

[duaneok66]

who would I start over him?

Charles

McCoy (and I hate Shady)

Bell

Hyde

Hill

Woodhead

Lynch

Gurley (when ready)

Lacy

Peterson

Forte

so at best for me he is #12.

So you agree, low end RB1.

Also, you are not starting Woodhead over him.. Stop.

Gurley isn't going to be full go for at least a few more weeks, and he's in a terrible offense.

who would I start over him?

Charles

McCoy (and I hate Shady)

Bell

Hyde

Hill

Woodhead

Lynch

Gurley (when ready)

Lacy

Peterson

Forte

so at best for me he is #12.

So you agree, low end RB1.

Also, you are not starting Woodhead over him.. Stop.

Gurley isn't going to be full go for at least a few more weeks, and he's in a terrible offense.

Woodhead has a clearly defined role in his offense - we love Lewis, but right now his role in 2015 is still up in the air.

 

[duaneok66]

wishful thinking - but hopefully so.

Names... let's go

RB5 in standard right now.

OK, ok, settle down.

Here are the RBs who I would have have to think real hard about sitting instead of Lewis with Blount's role still unsettled:

LeVeon Bell
Jamaal Charles
Adrian Peterson
Marshawn Lynch
Matt Forte
Eddie Lacy
Carlos Hyde
DeMarco Murray
Arian Foster
LeSean McCoy
Jeremy Hill
Chris Ivory
Mark Ingram
Justin Forsett
Here are some more RBs who I can see Lewis settling in with over the long term:

Andre Ellington
CJ Anderson
Todd Gurley
Frank Gore
Melvin Gordon

Potentially, can see these backs also being effective as Lewis over the long term:
Danny Woodhead
Alfred Morris
Lamar Miller
Ameer Abdullah

Don't get me wrong, I'm as high on Lewis as everyone else is here and hope he continues to have a top 10 trajectory. No question he's phenomenally talented and in the right fit in terms of role and scheme.

But it's way early yet, and just because he's #5 right now does not mean he'll stay that way over the long haul. Lot of football yet to play.

Good discussion, and good post.

 

[packersfan]

To be fair, it may only be up in the air in the eyes of fantasy owners. Belichick may already know what Lewis' role is.

 

[tone1oc]

wishful thinking - but hopefully so.

Names... let's go

RB5 in standard right now.

OK, ok, settle down.

Here are the RBs who I would have have to think real hard about sitting instead of Lewis with Blount's role still unsettled:

LeVeon Bell
Jamaal Charles
Adrian Peterson
Marshawn Lynch
Matt Forte
Eddie Lacy
Carlos Hyde
DeMarco Murray
Arian Foster
LeSean McCoy
Jeremy Hill
Chris Ivory
Mark Ingram
Justin Forsett
Here are some more RBs who I can see Lewis settling in with over the long term:

Andre Ellington
CJ Anderson
Todd Gurley
Frank Gore
Melvin Gordon

Potentially, can see these backs also being effective as Lewis over the long term:
Danny Woodhead
Alfred Morris
Lamar Miller
Ameer Abdullah

Don't get me wrong, I'm as high on Lewis as everyone else is here and hope he continues to have a top 10 trajectory. No question he's phenomenally talented and in the right fit in terms of role and scheme.

But it's way early yet, and just because he's #5 right now does not mean he'll stay that way over the long haul. Lot of football yet to play.

I don't see any of the back crossed off matching his production this year.. and of the high end backs you know a few will continue to or will fall off.

Lynch/Murray/Foster/Hill/McCoy are all in very shaky situations for various reasons

 

[duaneok66]

To be fair, it may only be up in the air in the eyes of fantasy owners. Belichick may already know what Lewis' role is.

that goes without saying.

To us, he is still a (long term) unknown. We don't even know how much he will play tomorrow.

 

[packersfan]

To be fair, it may only be up in the air in the eyes of fantasy owners. Belichick may already know what Lewis' role is.

that goes without saying.

To us, he is still a (long term) unknown. We don't even know how much he will play tomorrow.

I think we can say with near 100% certainty he'll be the RB used in passing situations. Highly unlikely that will be Blount.

 

[duaneok66]

Fair point. Still, he could fumble early and sit for the rest of 2015.

 

[packersfan]

Fair point. Still, he could fumble early and sit for the rest of 2015.

I've acknowledged the fumbling issues. In my opinion, that's the only thing that could prevent him from having a consistently significant role in this offense. The fact Belichick keeps going back to him despite the fumbles should not be ignored, however, though I realize if he fumbles every single game the leash could come to an end.

 

[tone1oc]

Fair point. Still, he could fumble early and sit for the rest of 2015.

ADP could get hurt or start looking his age.

Lynch could continue to seem listless

Foster's detached groin causes him issues

HIllman could continues to cap CJ's upside

McCoy continues to prove he can't run between tackles while Karlos vultures TDs

Forte cant rise above a dumpster fire offense looking to 2016

Murray could be hit with injury bug again and never get it going in new offense

etc, etc, etc

You will not find many RBs without warts

 

[duaneok66]

Sigh. It's an issue of degree. Plus you listed guys (Foster, Hillman and Murray) who aren't even part of the conversation. I wouldn't take any one of those guys at this point (over Lewis).

 

[tone1oc]

Sigh. It's an issue of degree. Plus you listed guys (Foster, Hillman and Murray) who aren't even part of the conversation. I wouldn't take any one of those guys at this point (over Lewis).

I was referring to CJ, not Hillman.. And if you take those guys out it's an even clearer path to RB1 finish but I digress.

This thread is very actionable to me-- For those who do realize what he is, take note of the skeptical nature that is still prevalent. Pounce.

I just traded Sankey+CMike for him.

 

[duaneok66]

Sankey and Michael? Who wants them??

 

[RealReactions]

I drafted him in both my leagues. Father lives in NE and was preaching he would be the vereen guy. Much happier if he takes over the entire backfield.

 

[tone1oc]

Sankey and Michael? Who wants them??

Exactly my point.

I guarantee the guy subscribes to a lot of the narratives in this thread or the 100 pages of CMIke nonsense

 

[duaneok66]

the Michael thread is truly unreal. I don't know how that thread continually stays on the front page.

 

[matuski]

the Michael thread is truly unreal. I don't know how that thread continually stays on the front page.

hard work and dedication.

 

[I Am the Stig]

the Michael thread is truly unreal. I don't know how that thread continually stays on the front page.

hard work and dedication.

Enough of me talking about CMike. Tell me, what do you think of CMike?

 

[tone1oc]

the Michael thread is truly unreal. I don't know how that thread continually stays on the front page.

hard work and dedication.

Enough of me talking about CMike. Tell me, what do you think of CMike?

Instant RB1 once he finds his way to New England.

 

[SameSongNDance]

I was surprised to see that Lewis actually leads all RBs with 119 offensive snaps and has the second highest team offensive snap percentage (81%). DWills has played on 87% of PIT's offensive snaps through two weeks.

What's also interesting is that NE has thrown on 97 of Lewis's 119 snaps. What worries me here is simply sample size and how heavily NE has been skewed towards the pass (70%) in the last two games.

It's funny because Lewis looks to be fantasy gold yet I'm still wary. He clearly passes the eye test and looks to have found himself in a perfect situation yet I still get flashbacks of Jonas Gray rushing for 200 yards and getting benched the next week.

 

[duaneok66]

this is my thought process as well. BB won't go pass heavy all season.

 

[rickyg]

I was surprised to see that Lewis actually leads all RBs with 119 offensive snaps and has the second highest team offensive snap percentage (81%). DWills has played on 87% of PIT's offensive snaps through two weeks.

What's also interesting is that NE has thrown on 97 of Lewis's 119 snaps. What worries me here is simply sample size and how heavily NE has been skewed towards the pass (70%) in the last two games.

It's funny because Lewis looks to be fantasy gold yet I'm still wary. He clearly passes the eye test and looks to have found himself in a perfect situation yet I still get flashbacks of Jonas Gray rushing for 200 yards and getting benched the next week.

Ssnd thanks so much for the videos you produce. They are really great. I joined vidme and subscribed to you just for your videos!

That said, there's something wrong with the soon Lewis vid. It doesn't play. Wish I could see it! Nonetheless thanks man!

 

[Run It Up]

Pats were pass heavy last year. They will almost definitely be pass heavy this year.

The Pats offense through two games (more if we look back to last post or regular season) is running through a pretty simple system. Just getting the ball out. Can't pressure Brady if he doesn't have the ball. Defenders have to either try to cheat routes and not get burned, or just let it happen. Defenders get frustrated and sloppy. Miss their assignments with which they were already mismatched to.

Its just a machine right now, I expect Blount and Lewis both to play their parts in it. But the more utility a back has the more snaps they will get in this offense. I really like Blount - this Lewis kid has also impressed me more than I could have imagined. I think it could be really close between the two by the end of the year, but I could also see either of them dominating touches.

It'll change a lot with the OLine stability as well. Right now they are shuffling the interior almost every drive. If it settles, or there is a major injury the whole backfield situation can change.

 

[tone1oc]

Brady: "Offense is clicking- I really like the versatility and play making ability of Lewis"

BB: "I know Tom, but in recent years I used piecemeal RBs to get the job done"

Brady: "Perhaps you are right, Lewis has been electric but it's about time we give half the carries to Blount because Ridley & Vereen"

BB: "I didn't become the best coach in the game by chance, we must always do things how we did in the past dynamic playmakers come and go- but we have a narrative to uphold"

 

[Old Smiley]

...running through a pretty simple system. Just getting the ball out. Can't pressure Brady if he doesn't have the ball. Defenders have to either try to cheat routes and not get burned, or just let it happen..

The thing that seems to me to have worked forever against the Pats is quick pressure up the middle. Force the middle of the line back. Tangled feet for TB.

So the line doesn't have to hold up long (I saw that Brady is getting the ball out in under 2 seconds so far this year) but Brady needs just that little bit of time.

Funny Ryan didn't do more A gap stuff. If you listen to the SBNation podcast this week, Steven White cusses quite a bit about that choice. (White is good)

 

[duaneok66]

Brady: "Offense is clicking- I really like the versatility and play making ability of Lewis"

BB: "I know Tom, but in recent years I used piecemeal RBs to get the job done"

Brady: "Perhaps you are right, Lewis has been electric but it's about time we give half the carries to Blount because Ridley & Vereen"

BB: "I didn't become the best coach in the game by chance, we must always do things how we did in the past dynamic playmakers come and go- but we have a narrative to uphold"

Okay. We get it.

 

[tone1oc]

Brady: "Offense is clicking- I really like the versatility and play making ability of Lewis"

BB: "I know Tom, but in recent years I used piecemeal RBs to get the job done"

Brady: "Perhaps you are right, Lewis has been electric but it's about time we give half the carries to Blount because Ridley & Vereen"

BB: "I didn't become the best coach in the game by chance, we must always do things how we did in the past dynamic playmakers come and go- but we have a narrative to uphold"

Okay. We get it.

But I don't think you do.

I'll leave well enough alone until after Week 3 when the same recycled trite will be espoused in here.

 

[rjv]

BB won't change game plan. If anything the tall tail sign is that BB didn't pull him after the fumble.

 

[JIslander]

wishful thinking - but hopefully so.

Names... let's go

RB5 in standard right now.

OK, ok, settle down.

Here are the RBs who I would have have to think real hard about sitting instead of Lewis with Blount's role still unsettled:

LeVeon Bell
Jamaal Charles
Adrian Peterson
Marshawn Lynch
Matt Forte
Eddie Lacy
Carlos Hyde
DeMarco Murray
Arian Foster
LeSean McCoy
Jeremy Hill
Chris Ivory
Mark Ingram
Justin Forsett
Here are some more RBs who I can see Lewis settling in with over the long term:

Andre Ellington
CJ Anderson
Todd Gurley
Frank Gore
Melvin Gordon

Potentially, can see these backs also being effective as Lewis over the long term:
Danny Woodhead
Alfred Morris
Lamar Miller
Ameer Abdullah

Don't get me wrong, I'm as high on Lewis as everyone else is here and hope he continues to have a top 10 trajectory. No question he's phenomenally talented and in the right fit in terms of role and scheme.

But it's way early yet, and just because he's #5 right now does not mean he'll stay that way over the long haul. Lot of football yet to play.

I don't see any of the back crossed off matching his production this year.. and of the high end backs you know a few will continue to or will fall off.

Lynch/Murray/Foster/Hill/McCoy are all in very shaky situations for various reasons

I'll be surprised if he beats our 3-4 of those.

 

[Thunderlips]

As long as he keeps his fumbling under wraps....he'll be an excellent FLEX play all year. There will be weeks he won't get the touches Blount gets.....but with that passing game...he'll almost always be a threat to catch 6+ balls a game.