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Divisional Round- Green Bay @ Dallas Thread (1 Viewer)

msudaisy26 said:
If he does I suspect it will be more of a decoy thing like Megatron would do when he was hurt. Guess it depends on how hurt and if Dallas buys the decoy thing.
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I don't think he will be a decoy, that's kind of a waste of an active roster spot. But I'm not naive enough to think that they will use him the way they normally do. An injured Jordy is better than nothing I suppose. But yes, the offense will be slightly different with Jordy out. I will call it now, Janis will have the biggest game of his season... 

 
Dr. Brew said:
I don't think he will be a decoy, that's kind of a waste of an active roster spot. But I'm not naive enough to think that they will use him the way they normally do. An injured Jordy is better than nothing I suppose. But yes, the offense will be slightly different with Jordy out. I will call it now, Janis will have the biggest game of his season... 
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Yeah...if he plays...no way he sees the slot and going across the middle much.

 
Dr. Brew said:
Thanks for doing that. I didn't have the time considering all the other stat digging I was doing. Interesting. On one hand they haven't been down much at all this year (a mark of a good team, yes), on the other they came back and won both games which is pretty impressive. 
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What we've seen in this Cowboys team compared to prev versions, is resiliency......they don't panic when they get behind.......there's a calmness and a confidence that permeates the whole organization and the fanbase.....I'm not sure when it happened, but later in the season, if they got behind I remember thinking, no worries, they'll march down the field and score......and they did......time and time again.

I remember feeling similar when Tony was playing at a very high level.....could be down quite a bit and never feel out of it.....the difference was the defense wasn't as good......in fact, the entire supporting cast wasn't as good......this is different.

That said, the playoffs are a different animal......but I like our chances. 

 
Aaron Rodgers over his career against playoff teams:

Home Games:
19-8 record (.704). 27.7 points for, 21.9 points against, +5.8 scoring margin

Road Games:
12-20 record (.375) 25.3 point for, 25.3 points against, 0 scoring margin

Since the advent of the current wildcard system in 1990, there have been 18 teams that won their wildcard game by 20+ points (not counting GB and SEA this year). The average score in the wildcard games was 36-11. Those same teams in the divisional round the following week went a collective 5-13 with the average score 16-25. Essentially, those teams scored 20 points less on average but allowed two more TD. Two of the five winning teams went on to win the Super Bowl (DEN in 1997 and NYG in 2011).

All this shows is context. Aaron Rodgers has been really good at home against good teams over his career. On the road, well that's a different animal. Same thing for the wildcard blowout teams. Things are a lot different playing on the road against a much tougher opponent than feasting on the sisters of the poor in the wildcard road.

None of this means GB will win or lose this weekend, but a Packers victory would be bucking two pretty significant trends (Rodgers on the road against playoff teams and teams winning after blowing out a team in a wildcard victory).
 

 
Some history, stolen from the Packers site.

  • It will be the second postseason meeting between the Packers and Cowboys in the last three years (2014 NFC Divisional) and the eighth meeting all-time in the playoffs. While Green Bay leads the regular-season series, 14-13, Dallas leads the postseason series, 4-3.
  • Sunday will be the fifth game between the Packers and Cowboys since the start of the 2013 regular season.
  • Including the regular and postseason, Green Bay has won five of the last six games against Dallas. During that span, only one game has taken place in Dallas, a 37-36 Packers victory during the 2013 regular season.
  • The Packers and Cowboys have both made the postseason 32 times, tied with the New York Giants for the most in NFL history.
  • Green Bay advanced to the Divisional round of the playoffs for the sixth time in the last seven seasons (2010-12, 2014-16), tied with the Seattle Seahawks for the most in the NFC over that span.
  • The Packers are 3-3 in the Divisional Playoffs under Head Coach Mike McCarthy.


This is an abbreviated version of the Dope Sheet. Read the full version here (PDF)

ON THE ROAD IN THE PLAYOFFS

  • Green Bay is 4-4 in road playoff games under McCarthy, with the Packers’ four wins tied (New York Jets, 4-3) for the third most in the NFL since 2006 (Baltimore Ravens, 7-5 / New York Giants, 5-2).
  • Green Bay’s .500 road playoff winning percentage since 2006 is the fifth best in the NFL (min. three games) over that span (San Francisco 49ers, 3-1, .750 / Giants, .714 / Ravens, . 583 / Jets, .571).
  • The Packers have averaged 30.4 points per game on the road in the postseason since 2006, No. 1 in the NFL over that span. They are the only team to average more than 26.0 points per game on the road in the playoffs since 2006.
  • Dating back to 1970, QB Aaron Rodgers’ 17 passing touchdowns in road playoff games are the third most in the NFL behind the 18 by Brett Favre and Joe Flacco.
     
WILD-CARD WIN

  • Green Bay beat the Giants, 38-13, last Sunday in an NFC Wild Card game at Lambeau Field. It marked the third straight season that the Packers have won their opening playoff game, the longest streak by Green Bay since a five-season stretch from 1993-97.
  • It was the Packers’ 10th Wild Card win, the most in league annals.
  • The 38 points scored by the Packers against the Giants were the most in a postseason game since Jan. 15, 2011, at Atlanta (48-21). It ranks No. 5 in team history for most points in a playoff contest, with four of the top five scoring games coming under the direction of McCarthy.
  • With the victory, McCarthy has led the Packers to nine wins in the postseason, tying Vince Lombardi and Mike Holmgren for the most in team history.
Read more: http://www.packers.com/news-and-events/article-dope-sheet/article-1/Packers-travel-to-Dallas-for-divisional-round/f8c55f66-b26b-46f6-a0f2-7a4775357fb4#ixzz4VUYnfSwq

The Packers, Rodgers included, know what it takes to win the Super Bowl from a wildcard position.  They have gone on the road throughout the playoffs, under Rodgers, to win it all.  All of this is fun, but not very instructive.  This year we have a wounded but hot Packers team facing a more healthy home team with a better record, but with playoff inexperience and rookie leadership.  This game is its own animal, as are most games, really, when you look at them closely.  The Cowboys are favored, and rightfully so.  That harsh reality will not keep me from hope.  I watch sports for the amazing, and for the unexpected.  Often they deliver both.

 
Ditkaless Wonders said:
Some history, stolen from the Packers site.

  • It will be the second postseason meeting between the Packers and Cowboys in the last three years (2014 NFC Divisional) and the eighth meeting all-time in the playoffs. While Green Bay leads the regular-season series, 14-13, Dallas leads the postseason series, 4-3.
  • Sunday will be the fifth game between the Packers and Cowboys since the start of the 2013 regular season.
  • Including the regular and postseason, Green Bay has won five of the last six games against Dallas. During that span, only one game has taken place in Dallas, a 37-36 Packers victory during the 2013 regular season.
  • The Packers and Cowboys have both made the postseason 32 times, tied with the New York Giants for the most in NFL history.
  • Green Bay advanced to the Divisional round of the playoffs for the sixth time in the last seven seasons (2010-12, 2014-16), tied with the Seattle Seahawks for the most in the NFC over that span.
  • The Packers are 3-3 in the Divisional Playoffs under Head Coach Mike McCarthy.


This is an abbreviated version of the Dope Sheet. Read the full version here (PDF)

ON THE ROAD IN THE PLAYOFFS

  • Green Bay is 4-4 in road playoff games under McCarthy, with the Packers’ four wins tied (New York Jets, 4-3) for the third most in the NFL since 2006 (Baltimore Ravens, 7-5 / New York Giants, 5-2).
  • Green Bay’s .500 road playoff winning percentage since 2006 is the fifth best in the NFL (min. three games) over that span (San Francisco 49ers, 3-1, .750 / Giants, .714 / Ravens, . 583 / Jets, .571).
  • The Packers have averaged 30.4 points per game on the road in the postseason since 2006, No. 1 in the NFL over that span. They are the only team to average more than 26.0 points per game on the road in the playoffs since 2006.
  • Dating back to 1970, QB Aaron Rodgers’ 17 passing touchdowns in road playoff games are the third most in the NFL behind the 18 by Brett Favre and Joe Flacco.
     
WILD-CARD WIN

  • Green Bay beat the Giants, 38-13, last Sunday in an NFC Wild Card game at Lambeau Field. It marked the third straight season that the Packers have won their opening playoff game, the longest streak by Green Bay since a five-season stretch from 1993-97.
  • It was the Packers’ 10th Wild Card win, the most in league annals.
  • The 38 points scored by the Packers against the Giants were the most in a postseason game since Jan. 15, 2011, at Atlanta (48-21). It ranks No. 5 in team history for most points in a playoff contest, with four of the top five scoring games coming under the direction of McCarthy.
  • With the victory, McCarthy has led the Packers to nine wins in the postseason, tying Vince Lombardi and Mike Holmgren for the most in team history.
Read more: http://www.packers.com/news-and-events/article-dope-sheet/article-1/Packers-travel-to-Dallas-for-divisional-round/f8c55f66-b26b-46f6-a0f2-7a4775357fb4#ixzz4VUYnfSwq

The Packers, Rodgers included, know what it takes to win the Super Bowl from a wildcard position.  They have gone on the road throughout the playoffs, under Rodgers, to win it all.  All of this is fun, but not very instructive.  This year we have a wounded but hot Packers team facing a more healthy home team with a better record, but with playoff inexperience and rookie leadership.  This game is its own animal, as are most games, really, when you look at them closely.  The Cowboys are favored, and rightfully so.  That harsh reality will not keep me from hope.  I watch sports for the amazing, and for the unexpected.  Often they deliver both.
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The Cowboys are favored by one pt. Home field is worth 3 right? So the game is basically a 50/50 proposition for both teams.

To say "that harsh reality won't keep you from hope " is a little dramatic imo. :lol: You guys arent a big dog by any stretch of the imagination. I don't think any fan of the NFL would be surprised should GB win this game

 
I get how difficult it is to win on the road in the playoffs. Certainly not an easy task. Going 4-4 on the road and 3-3 in the Divisional Round is far from terrible and likely on the better side of the spectrum.

But as I said at the time with Flacco and the Ravens, having volume road stats means you weren't good enough to be consistently playing at home. The discussion at the time (2014) was how much better Flacco was in the playoffs than Brady over the same time. Flacco was 10-5 while Brady was 4-5. However, Flacco got half of his wins in the WC round because the Ravens could only get a bye one time. So even with a worse record, the Patriots advanced farther more often than the Ravens did. So which is "better"? Having a better W-L record on the road (when the other QB's rarely have to play in the first round or on the road at all . . . or advancing further in the playoffs?

Getting back to GB. No doubt the Pack had a great run in 2010 and have shown that they can make a run playing on the road as a low seed. So of their 4 road wins, they earned three of them in that season. By extension, that means they went 1-4 on the road the rest of the time. Three times GB went one and done. Not saying that the Packers will or won't win this week, but the meaty part of the road playoff story came from 66 years ago.

 
Rodgers has averaged 30.4 Points per game on the road in the playoffs for his career.  I am fairly certain that should be good enough to win most of those games.  The problem isn't Rodgers on the road, it's McCarthy's stubbornness in regards to keeping Capers as his DC.

I'd expect the Packers to score 30 this weekend.  Whether that is good enough with Capers as the DC remains to be seen.  He's just absolutely abysmal as a DC.  Couple that with perhaps the worst corner in the NFL in Damarious Randall and I don't know if Rodgers can counteract those points.  It's going to be a fun game to watch though.  Lot's of scoring.  I'd say 55+ is a lock.  

 
Anarchy99 said:
I get how difficult it is to win on the road in the playoffs. Certainly not an easy task. Going 4-4 on the road and 3-3 in the Divisional Round is far from terrible and likely on the better side of the spectrum.

But as I said at the time with Flacco and the Ravens, having volume road stats means you weren't good enough to be consistently playing at home. The discussion at the time (2014) was how much better Flacco was in the playoffs than Brady over the same time. Flacco was 10-5 while Brady was 4-5. However, Flacco got half of his wins in the WC round because the Ravens could only get a bye one time. So even with a worse record, the Patriots advanced farther more often than the Ravens did. So which is "better"? Having a better W-L record on the road (when the other QB's rarely have to play in the first round or on the road at all . . . or advancing further in the playoffs?

Getting back to GB. No doubt the Pack had a great run in 2010 and have shown that they can make a run playing on the road as a low seed. So of their 4 road wins, they earned three of them in that season. By extension, that means they went 1-4 on the road the rest of the time. Three times GB went one and done. Not saying that the Packers will or won't win this week, but the meaty part of the road playoff story came from 66 years ago.
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The four losses were all kind of surreal.

The first loss came against Arizona, in a game where the Packers scored 45 points.  The final play clearly shows Rodgers getting hit in the face.  I blame Capers for this one.  

The second loss came against the Read-Option 49ers.  The Packers were clearly unprepared for it.  Such a joke on D.  I blame Capers for his total lack of prep.

The third loss was the meltdown agaisnt Seattle.  Good grief.  Most painful loss I've ever watched.  Capers D held up ok until OT when they just decided not to cover Superstar Jermaine Kearse.  Fluky game where the Hawks scored on a fake punt.  Historically bad coaching.

The final loss was against Arizona.  Capers came out and said that Damarious Randall was at fault for Fitzgerald's long play in OT.  Capers D again unprepared.

The common thread is Capers.  He's just so bad.  This defense regularly comes into games confused and overmatched.  

This week won't be any different.  Dallas is going to score a ton of points.  It's going to be a shootout.  I expect 2-3 touchdowns over Damarious Randall alone.  

 
The rookies are about to find out this is a man's game. And Rodgers is THE MAN.

Looking forward to a Brady vs. Rodgers super bowl. Could be an all time great.

 
Sabertooth said:
Rodgers has averaged 30.4 Points per game on the road in the playoffs for his career.  I am fairly certain that should be good enough to win most of those games.  The problem isn't Rodgers on the road, it's McCarthy's stubbornness in regards to keeping Capers as his DC.

I'd expect the Packers to score 30 this weekend.  Whether that is good enough with Capers as the DC remains to be seen.  He's just absolutely abysmal as a DC.  Couple that with perhaps the worst corner in the NFL in Damarious Randall and I don't know if Rodgers can counteract those points.  It's going to be a fun game to watch though.  Lot's of scoring.  I'd say 55+ is a lock.  
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I find it odd that they continue to go down this path:

The GM believes in building through the draft, keeping a young team
The DC runs a system that works best with established veterans who can understand his terminology and make reads quickly

It's like oil and water... for 8 years now. Turning a bad defenses around 1 season has earned him, I guess, a 6 year leash...

The defense has looked better this year, and I can't really blame him for everything because it's his system that just doesn't fit with the players he's given. I'm just surprised they continue to go down this path. I would like to see a change there but I am not going to call for it because I do think he is a pretty decent DC. The talent on defense has just not been that great

 
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Cowboysfan8 said:
The Cowboys are favored by one pt. Home field is worth 3 right? So the game is basically a 50/50 proposition for both teams.

To say "that harsh reality won't keep you from hope " is a little dramatic imo. :lol: You guys arent a big dog by any stretch of the imagination. I don't think any fan of the NFL would be surprised should GB win this game
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Like a woman?

 
Dr. Brew said:
I find it odd that they continue to go down this path:

The GM believes in building through the draft, keeping a young team
The DC runs a system that works best with established veterans who can understand his terminology and make reads quickly

It's like oil and water... for 8 years now. Turning a bad defenses around 1 season has earned him, I guess, a 6 year leash...

The defense has looked better this year, and I can't really blame him for everything because it's his system that just doesn't fit with the players he's given. I'm just surprised they continue to go down this path. I would like to see a change there but I am not going to call for it because I do think he is a pretty decent DC. The talent on defense has just not been that great
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Hard to say if it's talent or system.  I know I quake in my boots on any third down.  Even 3rd and 15 seems like a 50/50 shot. 

 
Line seems about right.

Some intriguing matchups this weekend, other than the NE game

I'll take the Cowboys, hawks, NE, and Steelers.

 
A bit of a side bar here, but the concept of teams "getting hot at the right time" and "going on a run" to end the regular season are essentially an urban legend.

In the pat 10 years, here are the team records in the last 6 weeks of the regular season for what turned into SB champions that year.

2015 DEN 4-2
2014 NE 4-2
2013 SEA 4-2
2012 BAL 2-4
2011 NYG 3-3
2010 GB 3-3
2009 NO 3-3
2008 PIT 5-1
2007 NYG 3-3
2006 IND 3-3

In that time, 12 teams went into the playoffs on at least a 6 game winning streak and came up short:

2015 KCC
2013 SFO
2012 DEN
2012 WAS
2011 NEP
2011 NOS
2010 NEP
2009 SDC
2008 IND
2007 NEP
2007 SDC
2006 SDC

This year, we are guaranteed of adding at least 2 teams to that list, as NEP, PIT, and GBP all entered the playoffs with at least a 6 game winning streak.
 

 
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Anarchy99 said:
A bit of a side bar here, but the concept of teams "getting hot at the right time" and "going on a run" to end the regular season are essentially an urban legend.
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i like posts like this and you are probably right, but i don't think that is something that you can quantify by stats, and certainly not just w/l record.  we are not privy to the information that would allow us to quantify team morale or leadership.

 
[icon] said:
LOL @ Cowboys fans thinking anything about this game will be "easy" 
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I've said that the Cowboys may find it relatively easy to score points. That's the extent of what I think will be easy. And I'm a Packer fan. Rodgers and the Packers are averaging over 30 points a game over the last 1-2 months. Cowboys about 20 with an outlier against DET grossly inflating that number. Kind of a captain obvious point here but if the Cowboys can score 30+ points or keep GB below 20 they will win.  

 
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Anarchy99 said:
A bit of a side bar here, but the concept of teams "getting hot at the right time" and "going on a run" to end the regular season are essentially an urban legend.

In the pat 10 years, here are the team records in the last 6 weeks of the regular season for what turned into SB champions that year.

2015 DEN 4-2
2014 NE 4-2
2013 SEA 4-2
2012 BAL 2-4
2011 NYG 3-3
2010 GB 3-3
2009 NO 3-3
2008 PIT 5-1
2007 NYG 3-3
2006 IND 3-3

In that time, 12 teams went into the playoffs on at least a 6 game winning streak and came up short:

2015 KCC
2013 SFO
2012 DEN
2012 WAS
2011 NEP
2011 NOS
2010 NEP
2009 SDC
2008 IND
2007 NEP
2007 SDC
2006 SDC

This year, we are guaranteed of adding at least 2 teams to that list, as NEP, PIT, and GBP all entered the playoffs with at least a 6 game winning streak.
 
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Ya I dont think I see GB winning the whole thing. That's irrelevant about this week though.  I think they get stopped in Atlanta next week.

 
GB has no run game and Jordy is likely out with broken ribs. 

DAL O-Line will make life easy for Dak and Zeke. 

GB will need some fortuitous turnovers and or big special teams plays to move on this week.

Dal 38 / GB 27

 
Dallas needs to score 30 to win.  Green Bay has only lost one game this season where the opponent scored less than 30.  

Green Bay 35, Dallas 27

I think Green Bay comes out and scores touchdowns on their first two possessions, going into the second quarter ahead 14-3.  

Jordy being out is a big factor for sure.  

On a per carry basis, Green Bay was 7th in the NFL with 4.5 YPC.  So saying they have no running game is a bit disinegnuous.  They lost Lacy obviously and struggled to find a replacement.  Once Christine Michael was acquired, and Ty Montgomery settled in, they were fine.  Of course Aaron Rodgers is also a big part of that running game as well.  He'll probably rush for 30-40 yards this weekend.  I see Ty getting 10-12 carries and Michael maybe 10.  

Davante Adams, Randall Cobb, and Jared Cook will combine for 300 receiving yards and 3 scores most likely.  

I think we see Rodgers run a little bit of read-option this weekend.  

Can't wait, I really do think Green Bay wins this one.  

 
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jerry jones said:
I think Dallas can easily win time of possession  and control this game.
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This is what i was referring to when referring to "cowboys fans thinking anything about this game will be easy". 

Should be a fantastic game. I see something like DAL 33 GB 27, WIth Dallas Running game and Defense both coming up big. 

 
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[icon] said:
This is what i was referring to when referring to "cowboys fans thinking anything about this game will be easy". 

Should be a fantastic game. I see something like DAL 33 GB 27, WIth Dallas Running game and Defense both coming up big. 
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Noone listens to Jerry Jones anymore

 
Dr. Brew said:
Bye Bye Sammy. If he didn't have more than one foot out the door he does now. Good riddance. 
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Yeah, never thought he'd be back but this really cinches it.  

The problem being, of course, that a concussed and stoned Sam Shields with one arm tied behind his back is still the best corner they had.  

 
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I think Dallas is able to control the clock enough with their elite running game to limit the number of GODGERS moments.  27-23 Dallas.

 
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