Jeff Pasquino
Footballguy
First of all, take these all with a grain of salt.
Secondly, these are for educational purposes only.
Third - I think it is a major mistake to try and predict all games.
My ranking system is based on "Stars", which gauges how strongly I feel about each pick.
Wildcard Weekend was a nice week, as I was able to go 7-2 according to the "star" picks. Will it continue? It'll be tough as I think weather will play a big factor this weekend.
Once again I will break a rule and PICK all of the games - but I won't STAR all of them. Several will want my opinion on all of the games, so I'll give them - but that doesn't mean that a friendly wager on the outcome is a great idea. So - each game will have two picks (spread and over/under) but some won't get rated for a play. Yep, a change in format...
Here we go:
SATURDAY - Baltimore Ravens at Tennessee Titans
Current Lines: Baltimore +3, Over/Under 34 to 34.5
The first time these two clashed, it was a 13-10 struggle on both sides of the ball for each offense. Most are expecting a similar battle this time around, but neither team is quite the same as they were the first time around. Chris Johnson and Joe Flacco are more experienced, but everyone is beat up with Derrick Mason and Albert Haynesworth at less than full strength. Even more important is the loss of Mawae at center, which opens up a point of attack for Rex Ryan.
This game also has a different setting, as the Titans will host the Ravens this go-around. Baltimore is road tested and defense travels well, but Tennessee has certainly been resting up and getting ready for the familiar foe. Weather could be a factor as rain could roll through. Look for both sides to work the field position and ground games to try and jab at each other for the first quarter at least and the first half to be very low scoring.
I expect this gamed to be won, however, not on the ground but through the air. Strange as that may sound, there are reasons to suspect this. First of all, everyone on defense will be keying on the backs and rushing attack. In the first meeting Johnson only earned 44 yards on 18 tries, while the Ravens did get a team 132 yards rushing. Flacco had barely 150 yards and threw two picks, but those throws were ill-conceived and true "rookie throws". I'm guessing that Cam Cameron has watched the Jets-Titans game tape a few times and saw the achilles' heel for Tennessee - the tight end. As long as Todd Heap is healthy enough, look for him to have a solid game (he did lead the Ravens in receiving in their first get together with 4 catches and 44 yards). Flacco will work the short passing game to Heap (and maybe even Wilcox) to move the chains.
Tennessee would like to do the same, as Scaife racked up a 7-72 day last time. Now he's not full strength so the Ravens catch a break there.
Okay, enough talk. I think the Ravens are playing well enough to go to Tennessee and steal this one. I expect them to win outright, so I'll gladly take 3 points. As for the total score, I could see a case for either team to top 20 points, but 17-13 seems more likely.
Picks: Baltimore +3 (2 stars)
Over 34 (0 stars)
SATURDAY - Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers
Current Lines: Arizona +9.5 to +10, Over/Under 48 to 48.5
This is the one game that I had as too big of a spread to start, as I predicted an 8-point margin towards the Panthers. I don't buy into the West Coast - East Coast trip issue (and playing at night will help, I'm sure). Arizona went to Carolina in Week 8 and lost by four, the exact number of points they botched on kicking mistakes. Of course you can point to many mistakes in the course of a game, but when you already have proof in recent history that a team can go to a team's site and play them toe-to-toe and now they're going there and getting twice the number of points that they would have needed the first time around, well - I'll take those numbers.
The game isn't without concerns. The weather frankly concerns me. It won't be cold, but it won't be too warm either. Wind and rain could definitely show up by gametime, and if you haven't seen Kurt Warner in less than ideal conditions then you might want to google "cat in rainstorm" images. That should give you a good idea of what to expect.
As for the possibility of no Boldin - well, the first time around Steve Breaston was 9-91 so the dropoff will be there but Breaston will certainly be good to step in for some of his missing yards (Boldin had 9 catches and 63 yards the first time but two scores). No Boldin and rain would frighten me away from heavily going after this game, but if you click on FOX Saturday night and all looks well, take the Cards with confidence and look for a 27-24 type game. In bad weather, Arizona, the spread and the over are all in trouble.
Picks: Cardinals +10 (1 star)
Over 48 (1 star)
SUNDAY - Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants
Current Lines: Philadelphia +4 to 4.5, Over/Under 39 to 39.5
The old saying is that "familiarity breeds contempt". Well, there's plenty of contempt here on both sides. The Giants and the Eagles know each other very well and this will be an epic contest. Many are expecting the Eagles to use a similar gameplan as when they squared off in December where Philadelphia went in and dominated New York in the Meadowlands. The scoreboard read 20-14 at the conclusion, but the Giants were controlled all day thanks to Westbrook and a strong defense, both aided by Brandon Jacobs leaving the game early and also strong winds. A blocked field goal for a TD and a late garbage TD were all the Giants could manage for points on the day.
Now, none of that truly matters in this re-re-match of two NFC East teams. The Giants are rested and coming off of a bye, but quite honestly they weren't exactly clicking on all cylinders before the break. They limped home to the #1 seed - if that's even possible - with just the one strong victory over the Carolina Panthers in Week 16 to show for December. Not exactly the flourish that they finished with in their Super Bowl run last year. Can they regroup and start another run? Tom Coughlin will try and make that happen, but the expectations here have to be that the Eagles will bring a ton of pressure on Eli Manning and that the run defense will go after Ward and Jacobs. If the Giants are going to win, they need Manning to find someone to stretch the field (likely Hixon) and connect to him at least once to get the ball into Eagles' territory. They nearly did just that in the 20-14 game but the wind took away the deep passing attack.
Philly's offensive script should include lots of Westbrook, but look for Jason Avant and Brent Celek to be active as both will take on the linebackers in coverage, the Giants' weakness on defense. If McNabb plays well and Westbrook does what he can do, Philadelphia could take control of this one. The expected outcome, however, is a field goal game that could go either way. Knowing that as the history between these two and it is a pretty safe call. I'd say it is about a 50/50 proposition that this game winds up within a touchdown in either direction and quite likely less than four. With that in mind, I'll take the points and the Eagles in a 20-17 type game.
Picks: Philadelphia +4.5 (2 Stars)
Under 39.5 (0 stars)
SUNDAY - San Diego Chargers at Pittsburgh Steelers
Current Lines: Pittsburgh -6 to 6.5, Over/Under 37.5 to 38
This one was 11-10, or 17-10, or 18-10 last time they met, depending on what betting sob story you have to tell.... but no matter. The Steelers may have won by just one point, but they dominated this game. Philip Rivers threw two interceptions and Tomlinson had barely three yards per carry (18-57, 1 TD). The Steelers dominated on offense as well, with Big Ben throwing for 300+ yards and Willie Parker racking up over 100.
Fast forward to January. In Pittsburgh. For a team from San Diego. The forecast? Under 30 degrees - maybe 10-20, with a chance of snow. Yeah, that'll work out great. Plus the Chargers are minus Tomlinson and Gates is banged up. Is this game on ESPN Classic? I'm pretty sure I've seen this one before, and I know how that one played out as well.
Darren Sproles will do better than Tomlinson could and at least match LT2's stats from the first time around, but the Steelers should control this game from start to finish. The best the Chargers can hope for is to get pressure on Roethlisberger and have Rivers outplay him. Considering the last game and the Steeler defense, I'm heavily leaning to Pittsburgh. 27-10, Steelers.
The
Picks: Steelers -6 (2 stars)
Under 38 (0 stars)
SUMMARY:
ZERO STAR GAMES (NO PICK)
BAL / TENOver 34 (0 stars)
PHI / NYG Under 39.5 (0 stars)
SD / PIT Under 38 (0 stars)
*ONE STAR GAMES*
Picks: Cardinals +10 (1 star)
AZ / CAR Over 48 (1 star)
**TWO STAR GAMES**
Picks: Baltimore +3 (2 stars)
Picks: Philadelphia +4.5 (2 Stars)
Picks: Steelers -6 (2 stars)
***THREE STAR GAMES***
NONE.
Good luck this week, and remember that if you are tempting fate and actually wagering on these games to bet with your head and not over it.
Enjoy the games.
Lastly, the record:
Secondly, these are for educational purposes only.
Third - I think it is a major mistake to try and predict all games.
My ranking system is based on "Stars", which gauges how strongly I feel about each pick.
Wildcard Weekend was a nice week, as I was able to go 7-2 according to the "star" picks. Will it continue? It'll be tough as I think weather will play a big factor this weekend.
Once again I will break a rule and PICK all of the games - but I won't STAR all of them. Several will want my opinion on all of the games, so I'll give them - but that doesn't mean that a friendly wager on the outcome is a great idea. So - each game will have two picks (spread and over/under) but some won't get rated for a play. Yep, a change in format...
Here we go:
SATURDAY - Baltimore Ravens at Tennessee Titans
Current Lines: Baltimore +3, Over/Under 34 to 34.5
The first time these two clashed, it was a 13-10 struggle on both sides of the ball for each offense. Most are expecting a similar battle this time around, but neither team is quite the same as they were the first time around. Chris Johnson and Joe Flacco are more experienced, but everyone is beat up with Derrick Mason and Albert Haynesworth at less than full strength. Even more important is the loss of Mawae at center, which opens up a point of attack for Rex Ryan.
This game also has a different setting, as the Titans will host the Ravens this go-around. Baltimore is road tested and defense travels well, but Tennessee has certainly been resting up and getting ready for the familiar foe. Weather could be a factor as rain could roll through. Look for both sides to work the field position and ground games to try and jab at each other for the first quarter at least and the first half to be very low scoring.
I expect this gamed to be won, however, not on the ground but through the air. Strange as that may sound, there are reasons to suspect this. First of all, everyone on defense will be keying on the backs and rushing attack. In the first meeting Johnson only earned 44 yards on 18 tries, while the Ravens did get a team 132 yards rushing. Flacco had barely 150 yards and threw two picks, but those throws were ill-conceived and true "rookie throws". I'm guessing that Cam Cameron has watched the Jets-Titans game tape a few times and saw the achilles' heel for Tennessee - the tight end. As long as Todd Heap is healthy enough, look for him to have a solid game (he did lead the Ravens in receiving in their first get together with 4 catches and 44 yards). Flacco will work the short passing game to Heap (and maybe even Wilcox) to move the chains.
Tennessee would like to do the same, as Scaife racked up a 7-72 day last time. Now he's not full strength so the Ravens catch a break there.
Okay, enough talk. I think the Ravens are playing well enough to go to Tennessee and steal this one. I expect them to win outright, so I'll gladly take 3 points. As for the total score, I could see a case for either team to top 20 points, but 17-13 seems more likely.
Picks: Baltimore +3 (2 stars)
Over 34 (0 stars)
SATURDAY - Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers
Current Lines: Arizona +9.5 to +10, Over/Under 48 to 48.5
This is the one game that I had as too big of a spread to start, as I predicted an 8-point margin towards the Panthers. I don't buy into the West Coast - East Coast trip issue (and playing at night will help, I'm sure). Arizona went to Carolina in Week 8 and lost by four, the exact number of points they botched on kicking mistakes. Of course you can point to many mistakes in the course of a game, but when you already have proof in recent history that a team can go to a team's site and play them toe-to-toe and now they're going there and getting twice the number of points that they would have needed the first time around, well - I'll take those numbers.
The game isn't without concerns. The weather frankly concerns me. It won't be cold, but it won't be too warm either. Wind and rain could definitely show up by gametime, and if you haven't seen Kurt Warner in less than ideal conditions then you might want to google "cat in rainstorm" images. That should give you a good idea of what to expect.
As for the possibility of no Boldin - well, the first time around Steve Breaston was 9-91 so the dropoff will be there but Breaston will certainly be good to step in for some of his missing yards (Boldin had 9 catches and 63 yards the first time but two scores). No Boldin and rain would frighten me away from heavily going after this game, but if you click on FOX Saturday night and all looks well, take the Cards with confidence and look for a 27-24 type game. In bad weather, Arizona, the spread and the over are all in trouble.
Picks: Cardinals +10 (1 star)
Over 48 (1 star)
SUNDAY - Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants
Current Lines: Philadelphia +4 to 4.5, Over/Under 39 to 39.5
The old saying is that "familiarity breeds contempt". Well, there's plenty of contempt here on both sides. The Giants and the Eagles know each other very well and this will be an epic contest. Many are expecting the Eagles to use a similar gameplan as when they squared off in December where Philadelphia went in and dominated New York in the Meadowlands. The scoreboard read 20-14 at the conclusion, but the Giants were controlled all day thanks to Westbrook and a strong defense, both aided by Brandon Jacobs leaving the game early and also strong winds. A blocked field goal for a TD and a late garbage TD were all the Giants could manage for points on the day.
Now, none of that truly matters in this re-re-match of two NFC East teams. The Giants are rested and coming off of a bye, but quite honestly they weren't exactly clicking on all cylinders before the break. They limped home to the #1 seed - if that's even possible - with just the one strong victory over the Carolina Panthers in Week 16 to show for December. Not exactly the flourish that they finished with in their Super Bowl run last year. Can they regroup and start another run? Tom Coughlin will try and make that happen, but the expectations here have to be that the Eagles will bring a ton of pressure on Eli Manning and that the run defense will go after Ward and Jacobs. If the Giants are going to win, they need Manning to find someone to stretch the field (likely Hixon) and connect to him at least once to get the ball into Eagles' territory. They nearly did just that in the 20-14 game but the wind took away the deep passing attack.
Philly's offensive script should include lots of Westbrook, but look for Jason Avant and Brent Celek to be active as both will take on the linebackers in coverage, the Giants' weakness on defense. If McNabb plays well and Westbrook does what he can do, Philadelphia could take control of this one. The expected outcome, however, is a field goal game that could go either way. Knowing that as the history between these two and it is a pretty safe call. I'd say it is about a 50/50 proposition that this game winds up within a touchdown in either direction and quite likely less than four. With that in mind, I'll take the points and the Eagles in a 20-17 type game.
Picks: Philadelphia +4.5 (2 Stars)
Under 39.5 (0 stars)
SUNDAY - San Diego Chargers at Pittsburgh Steelers
Current Lines: Pittsburgh -6 to 6.5, Over/Under 37.5 to 38
This one was 11-10, or 17-10, or 18-10 last time they met, depending on what betting sob story you have to tell.... but no matter. The Steelers may have won by just one point, but they dominated this game. Philip Rivers threw two interceptions and Tomlinson had barely three yards per carry (18-57, 1 TD). The Steelers dominated on offense as well, with Big Ben throwing for 300+ yards and Willie Parker racking up over 100.
Fast forward to January. In Pittsburgh. For a team from San Diego. The forecast? Under 30 degrees - maybe 10-20, with a chance of snow. Yeah, that'll work out great. Plus the Chargers are minus Tomlinson and Gates is banged up. Is this game on ESPN Classic? I'm pretty sure I've seen this one before, and I know how that one played out as well.
Darren Sproles will do better than Tomlinson could and at least match LT2's stats from the first time around, but the Steelers should control this game from start to finish. The best the Chargers can hope for is to get pressure on Roethlisberger and have Rivers outplay him. Considering the last game and the Steeler defense, I'm heavily leaning to Pittsburgh. 27-10, Steelers.
The
Picks: Steelers -6 (2 stars)
Under 38 (0 stars)
SUMMARY:
ZERO STAR GAMES (NO PICK)
BAL / TENOver 34 (0 stars)
PHI / NYG Under 39.5 (0 stars)
SD / PIT Under 38 (0 stars)
*ONE STAR GAMES*
Picks: Cardinals +10 (1 star)
AZ / CAR Over 48 (1 star)
**TWO STAR GAMES**
Picks: Baltimore +3 (2 stars)
Picks: Philadelphia +4.5 (2 Stars)
Picks: Steelers -6 (2 stars)
***THREE STAR GAMES***
NONE.
Good luck this week, and remember that if you are tempting fate and actually wagering on these games to bet with your head and not over it.
Enjoy the games.
Lastly, the record:
Last edited by a moderator:
The +375/+400 lines I saw were very inviting even if only as a value bet. Turns out it would have been 
