DL Tiers 2013 / Version 3.0 Updated May 1 (1 Viewer)

[Jene Bramel]

These tiers will obviously change significantly between now and August. But it’s never too early to take a stand and start sorting players into tiers.

I’m going to use this thread to update the defensive line tiers through the summer (they’ll also be translated into my rankings starting in early May after the NFL Draft). Each update will have its own post in the thread, with later posts including a notation for changes from the previous version. I’ll link the post to each version here to keep things (somewhat) organized.

For the purposes of the defensive line tiers, assume a league with 30-40 DL rostered, 20+ starting DL, a balanced scoring system (about 4:1 sack to tackle) and my relatively strong upside bias.

Discussion is welcome and encouraged.

Version 1.0 (Post 2) -- Post Coaching Changes / Pre Free Agency

Version 2.0 (Post 41) -- Post Free Agency / Pre Draft

Version 3.0 -- Post-Draft (Full feature w/ commentary)

 

[Jene Bramel]

Last summer, I argued that we could be entering a fantasy renaissance of sorts at the defensive end position. The top 2-3 tiers looked deeper than they’d been in years and full of interesting young prospects.

There was a rebound in defensive line stats, but it came with a catch. It wasn’t top heavy at all. There were lots of sacks, but they were spread among a huge number of players. Most of the big name defensive ends were boom or bust and the boom weeks didn’t necessarily occur during their best matchup. And many of the young guys we hoped would bolster the top ranks – Robert Quinn, Cliff Avril, Jabaal Sheard, Carlos Dunlap, Jeremy Mincey, Kamerion Wimbley – were disappointing.

It gets even murkier. Four teams with strong defensive line prospects are moving to a 3-4 or a hybrid that should lean that way. Only one team is moving from a base 3-4 to a 4-3 – Dallas – and it’s not a great fit for their pass rushers. The teams that could lose a big name free agent don’t have a clear stud waiting in the wings. While there are lots of intriguing names in this year’s draft, many of them aren’t your traditional every-down 4-3 ends and their short and long term value will depend heavily on fit and depth chart opportunity.

That leaves the DL tiers a bit of a mess. It doesn’t help that I’m not sure I know which side of the table I’m on with many of these guys yet. The only think I’m certain of today is that I don’t see much certainty in the top 2-3 tiers at all.

I’m presenting Version 1.0 without much context. Hopefully, there aren't too many obvious omissions and it fosters lots of discussion that helps us all.

++++++++++++

Elite DL1JJ Watt

Cameron Wake

Jason Pierre-Paul

Mario Williams – pending classification

Charles Johnson

Jared Allen

Elite DL1 Upside

Ugh.

DL2 w/ Elite Upside

Terrell Suggs - pending classification

Elvis Dumervil

Carlos Dunlap

DeMarcus Ware

Julius Peppers

Michael Johnson (FA)

Greg Hardy

Chandler Jones

Geno Atkins (DT)

Cliff Avril (FA)

Rob Ninkovich - pending classification

Calais Campbell

Robert Quinn

High Floor DL2

Maybe I’m being stubborn, but do you trust anyone in the top half of the next tier to be your every-week DL2?

DL3 w/ Upside

Justin Smith

Derrick Morgan

LaMarr Houston

Cameron Jordan

Corey Liuget

Chris Long

Haloti Ngata (DT)

Brian Robison

Fletcher Cox

Jason Babin

Da’Quan Bowers

Ndamukong Suh (DT)

Kamerion Wimbley

John Abraham

Jeremy Mincey

Muhammad Wilkerson

Justin Tuck

Kroy Biermann

Arthur Jones

Marcell Dareus

Gerald McCoy (DT)

Tier Jumpers

Paul Kruger (FA) - pending classification

Adrian Clayborn (knee)

Chris Clemons (knee)

Quinton Coples

Bruce Irvin

Anthony Spencer (FA) - pending classification

Shea McClellin

Corey Wootton

Osi Umenyiora (FA)

Everson Griffen

Michael Bennett (FA)

Willie Young

Tyrone Crawford

Jerel Worthy (knee)

Matt Shaughnessy (FA)

Andre Branch

Cliff Matthews

Olivier Vernon

Billy Winn

Jared Crick

DraftWatch

Damontre Moore

Bjoern Werner

Dion Jordan

Ezekiel Ansah

Barkevious Mingo

Tank Carradine

Alex Okafor

Datone Jones

Sam Montgomery

 

[FunkyTeaParty]

Thanks for this, Jene. Some great food for thought here. Such a tough position to speculate on since so much is determined by role.Can I take this to mean you don't think Ninkovich will be listed at DL in 2013?

 

[Ranethe]

Thanks for this, Jene. Some great food for thought here. Such a tough position to speculate on since so much is determined by role.Can I take this to mean you don't think Ninkovich will be listed at DL in 2013?

Any thoughts on Desmond Bryant? From what I've read: filled in for Richard Seymour at DT for Oakland last year, averaged a sack/game, rated by PFF as 6th most effective interior pass rusher in league (off memory, may be misinterpreting what I recall).I've read he's perfectly suited as a 3-4 DE (6'6", 315) and is a FA. One of the Rotoworld writers was gushing about him as one of the top FA's, I've read references that Bill Polian listed him as one of the "A" list FA's available (though I haven't read Polian's actual article, it's ESPN insider content.I've also read that he is garnering a lot of interest around the league, with Denver being mentioned as possibly having interest.MFL lists him as a DE for some reason. Does he have any value for fantasy purposes? Thanks, love reading your IDP information/analysis. (Depend on it, really).Eta: sorry, didn't mean to quote this post, meant to just reply to topic

 

[5-ish Finkle]

Ahhh....needed my IDP fix something fierce. Have been tweaking tuuurrible.The 3-4/hybrid switches are likely gutting one particular squad of mine(Sheard, Mario). Sort of scrambling to attempt to find cheap youngsters to target as potential "bridge players."So far I've been angling for Ivrin, Vernon and Morgan. Still holding out a shred of hope that Horton decides to run some kind of hybrid where Sheard remains DE classified, but may get LB snaps(I know, I know...wishful thinking is all I have right now though).

 

[Tom Cody]

I think I'd have N Fairley (DT) in with the Tier Jumpers as long as he keeps his head on straight ( he seemed to be a re-focused player last season) and can shake the nagging injuries that have nicked him up in his first two seasons.

 

[Jene Bramel]

Can I take this to mean you don't think Ninkovich will be listed at DL in 2013?

Added him, and a couple of others, into the tiers with a pending classification note.

Any thoughts on Desmond Bryant? From what I've read: filled in for Richard Seymour at DT for Oakland last year, averaged a sack/game, rated by PFF as 6th most effective interior pass rusher in league (off memory, may be misinterpreting what I recall).

Nice player but would have to land in a good situation with a strong opportunity for 500+ snaps to crack my list this summer.

 

[Frank Costanza's Lawyer]

Added him, and a couple of others, into the tiers with a pending classification note.

IS there a new risk that Suggs will be changed to a LB?

 

[pyite76]

Any insight into Derek Wolfe?i thought he looked good last season.

 

[Jene Bramel]

Added him, and a couple of others, into the tiers with a pending classification note.

IS there a new risk that Suggs will be changed to a LB?

Suggs is currently listed as a LB at Rotoworld. Unless that changes, it's likely MFL will reclassify him. I'm not sure how the other league management sites currently classify him. We tend to sync our database with MFL.

 

[Jene Bramel]

Any insight into Derek Wolfe?i thought he looked good last season.

Felt like he wasn't the same player over the last six games, but I'm probably being too hard on him. Slot him in the DL3 with upside tier.

 

[voiceofunreason]

I took a team over last year in a pretty deep league where a couple guys really horde at DL.I traded a rebuilding team for Jared Allen a couple weeks ago and picked up Liuget and Griffen. I saw Griffen put up some nice numbers, is he more of a pass rush specialist or can he become a 3 down player? Seems to have some talent but I haven't really watched him much.

 

[JoeSteeler]

Bowers in troubleUpdating a previous item, Bucs DE Da'Quan Bowers will be charged with two counts of second-degree criminal possession after showing up to New York's LaGuardia Airport with a loaded gun in his carry-on bag.The charge is identical to the one Plaxico Burress faced in 2008, and carries a minimum sentence of 3.5 years in prison, with a maximum of 15 years. Burress, who accidentally shot himself in the leg at a Manhattan nightclub, accepted a plea deal and served 20 months. "We are aware of the situation and are gathering information," said Bucs GM Mark Dominik. "We will withhold comment until we know all the facts." Feb 18 - 8:01 PMRotoworld

 

[voiceofunreason]

Bowers in troubleUpdating a previous item, Bucs DE Da'Quan Bowers will be charged with two counts of second-degree criminal possession after showing up to New York's LaGuardia Airport with a loaded gun in his carry-on bag.The charge is identical to the one Plaxico Burress faced in 2008, and carries a minimum sentence of 3.5 years in prison, with a maximum of 15 years. Burress, who accidentally shot himself in the leg at a Manhattan nightclub, accepted a plea deal and served 20 months. "We are aware of the situation and are gathering information," said Bucs GM Mark Dominik. "We will withhold comment until we know all the facts." Feb 18 - 8:01 PMRotoworld

He had a loaded gun in he carry on? Kenny Britt just that guy's an idiot.

 

[Jene Bramel]

I took a team over last year in a pretty deep league where a couple guys really horde at DL.I traded a rebuilding team for Jared Allen a couple weeks ago and picked up Liuget and Griffen. I saw Griffen put up some nice numbers, is he more of a pass rush specialist or can he become a 3 down player? Seems to have some talent but I haven't really watched him much.

I think Griffen can be a 700+ snap player. Snap count and whether he's used in a roaming elephant role will determine how consistently valuable he can be.

 

[FUBAR]

High Floor DL2

Maybe I’m being stubborn, but do you trust anyone in the top half of the next tier to be your every-week DL2?

DL3 w/ Upside

Cameron Jordan

Marcell Dareus

Jordan was the #7 DE in my league last year. I had no problem starting him along with Mario. Shouldn't Dareus be listed at a DT? Is this changing?

 

[BearsFan]

High Floor DL2

Maybe I’m being stubborn, but do you trust anyone in the top half of the next tier to be your every-week DL2?

DL3 w/ Upside

Cameron Jordan

Marcell Dareus

Jordan was the #7 DE in my league last year. I had no problem starting him along with Mario. Shouldn't Dareus be listed at a DT? Is this changing?

I believe that NOS is moving to a 3-4 under Ryan, so Jordan will likely be re-classified as an OLB.

 

[Jene Bramel]

High Floor DL2

Maybe I’m being stubborn, but do you trust anyone in the top half of the next tier to be your every-week DL2?

DL3 w/ Upside

Cameron Jordan

Marcell Dareus

Jordan was the #7 DE in my league last year. I had no problem starting him along with Mario. Shouldn't Dareus be listed at a DT? Is this changing?

Expecting Jordan to play 5-technique DE in the Saints 3-4 this year. I'll move him up once we get an idea of exactly how he'll be used and see if the Saints can find a rush OLB to give Jordan added pass rush opportunity.I think the Bills are going to be a hybrid defense. I expect Pettine will try to lean 3-4, but that'll depend on whether he can find an edge rusher to complement Mario Williams. If that happens, I think Dareus could move to DE. He could also stay inside at DT in either front, however, so it's very much an open question for now.

 

[BearsFan]

Expecting Jordan to play 5-technique DE in the Saints 3-4 this year. I'll move him up once we get an idea of exactly how he'll be used and see if the Saints can find a rush OLB to give Jordan added pass rush opportunity.

Thanks Jene. For some reason, I'd thought that Jordan was a lot smaller OLB type, but he's actually listed at 287 on Rotoworld!

 

[KCitons]

Hate to nit-pick your great work Jene, but Adrian Clayborn is recovering from a knee injury, not an achilles. I had to double check, as the achilles would be more of a concern.

 

[cheese]

Any insight into Derek Wolfe?i thought he looked good last season.

Felt like he wasn't the same player over the last six games, but I'm probably being too hard on him. Slot him in the DL3 with upside tier.

Wolfe is more of a run stopper than edge rusher even at DE, but I think he will stick around as a productive player. His upside is likely limited on sacks unless he can get them off his persistent motor like a Justin Smith. I think he's going to be a good guy to have in a deep league for some consistent stats, but unlikely to make a leap to much value in a standard IDP league.

 

[BC3]

I have to disagree on this one Jene. J.J. Watt is in a league by himself.

 

[Jene Bramel]

Hate to nit-pick your great work Jene, but Adrian Clayborn is recovering from a knee injury, not an achilles. I had to double check, as the achilles would be more of a concern.

Thanks. Must've had Bowers on the brain at that moment.

 

[helix]

I have to disagree on this one Jene. J.J. Watt is in a league by himself.

Agree with this statement. In our standard IDP scoring system, Watt had the largest PPG differential to the next best guy at ~7 PPG. The next highest differential between 1 and 2 was at RB at ~3 PPG. At 24 years old (at the start of the season), he is such an anamoly one could make the argument that he is a late 1st round pick in a startup dyansty draft with IDP. Watt has very similar characteristics to Gronk circa preseason 2012.

So, in my DL rankings (redraft or dynasty), it would be Watt (as Ultra Elite), huge gap and then next tier.

 

[matttyl]

I have to disagree on this one Jene. J.J. Watt is in a league by himself.

Agree with this statement. In our standard IDP scoring system, Watt had the largest PPG differential to the next best guy at ~7 PPG. The next highest differential between 1 and 2 was at RB at ~3 PPG. At 24 years old (at the start of the season), he is such an anamoly one could make the argument that he is a late 1st round pick in a startup dyansty draft with IDP. Watt has very similar characteristics to Gronk circa preseason 2012.

So, in my DL rankings (redraft or dynasty), it would be Watt (as Ultra Elite), huge gap and then next tier.

Watt was traded in both of the 10 team dynasty IDP leagues I'm in this offseason. In one he was traded straight up for the #3 rookie pick. In the other he was traded straight up for McCoy (from the team that also has Bryce Brown).

 

[ClownDogs]

I have to disagree on this one Jene. J.J. Watt is in a league by himself.

Agree with this statement. In our standard IDP scoring system, Watt had the largest PPG differential to the next best guy at ~7 PPG. The next highest differential between 1 and 2 was at RB at ~3 PPG. At 24 years old (at the start of the season), he is such an anamoly one could make the argument that he is a late 1st round pick in a startup dyansty draft with IDP. Watt has very similar characteristics to Gronk circa preseason 2012.

So, in my DL rankings (redraft or dynasty), it would be Watt (as Ultra Elite), huge gap and then next tier.

Watt was traded in both of the 10 team dynasty IDP leagues I'm in this offseason. In one he was traded straight up for the #3 rookie pick. In the other he was traded straight up for McCoy (from the team that also has Bryce Brown).

16 team idp league, i dealt watt (314pts) straight up for T.Brady(418pts) as i needed a QB and see this type of season as watt's ceiling personally. Might do it for a long time, but being a consistent 300+pt IDP player is almost impossible.Other team did have Brady/MRyan/Cam/Bradford, so could afford to lose a QB.

Watt should be on a tier all by himself.

 

[BigSteelThrill]

Silverback, aka James Harrison, has been released.

Wonder if there is any chance he winds up as a DE on a 4-3 team.

 

[ADP]

Trent Cole have any chance of returning to old glory?

 

[buck56]

Trent Cole have any chance of returning to old glory?

Word is hes moving to OLB, so my guess is no.

 

[ADP]

Trent Cole have any chance of returning to old glory?

Word is hes moving to OLB, so my guess is no.

Yeh but Trent Cole was never a big tackle guy anyway. Sacks can still be had for him from that rush OLB spot I would think? Can he return to a 45 and 10 type player?

 

[msommer]

Trent Cole have any chance of returning to old glory?

Word is hes moving to OLB, so my guess is no.

Yeh but Trent Cole was never a big tackle guy anyway. Sacks can still be had for him from that rush OLB spot I would think? Can he return to a 45 and 10 type player?

45/10 is great for a defensive end but maybe not so hot for a linebacker - e.g. Brian Orakpo had 59/9 in 2011. That landed him as LB69 (not a big play league, but still)

 

[Shutout]

Cliff Avrill's outlook now that he is in Seattle?

 

[Warhogs]

Cliff Avrill's outlook now that he is in Seattle?

And what do these signings mean for Chris Clemons? Is there still room for him?

 

[The Man With No Name]

Cliff Avrill's outlook now that he is in Seattle?

And what do these signings mean for Chris Clemons? Is there still room for him?

Fri, 22 Feb 2013 12:32:21 -0800Seattle Seahawks general manager John Schneider said DE Chris Clemons (knee) is doing well in his recovery from a torn anterior cruciate ligament but is not sure if Clemons will be ready for the start of the 2013 season. | Source: The Tacoma News Tribune - Eric D. WilliamsThu, 14 Mar 2013 16:10:44 -0700Seattle Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll said DE Chris Clemons (knee) is doing well in his recovery from a torn anterior cruciate ligament but that the team will not let him play until he is completely healthy. Carroll said the addition of DE Cliff Avril will not affect Clemons' role in any way. | Source: The Tacoma News Tribune - Eric D. WilliamsThu, 14 Mar 2013 16:14:31 -0700Seattle Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll said the team will use DEs Chris Clemons, Cliff Avril and Bruce Irvin on third downs and defensive sub packages. He said they will all see time to make sure they are fresh later in the game. | Source: The Tacoma News Tribune - Eric D. Williams

 

[msommer]

Matt Shaughnessy to ARI seems odd - are the going back to a 4-3 with him at end or will he be OLB?

 

[Benchwarmers]

Spencer DE Dallas, if he is a DE in the new system what kind of numbers do you think he can put up. With Ware on the other side can he reach 12+ sacks?

 

[buck56]

Spencer DE Dallas, if he is a DE in the new system what kind of numbers do you think he can put up. With Ware on the other side can he reach 12+ sacks?

I doubt it, its a 3-4 and he will be playing a new position.

 

[Jene Bramel]

Spencer DE Dallas, if he is a DE in the new system what kind of numbers do you think he can put up. With Ware on the other side can he reach 12+ sacks?

I like Spencer but he hadn't showed much consistency before last year. I think he can be successful as a LDE in Kiffin's scheme, but I think he's much more likely to finish in the 35-40 / 7-9 range than get 40+/10+.

 

[Jene Bramel]

Matt Shaughnessy to ARI seems odd - are the going back to a 4-3 with him at end or will he be OLB?

I don't think Arizona's scheme is clear yet. Probably will see lots of 3-4 on base downs, but that could change quickly. Shaughnessy is probably a rotational player on base downs and a nickel pass rusher.

 

[NCPanthersFan]

On leagues that require a DT - anyone have a take on Michael Brockers? I grabbed him with a fairly late rookie pick.

 

[Jene Bramel]

I think I’m starting to grow more comfortable separating the top tiers, but the overall picture I painted in the lead-in to Version 1.0 of the DL tiers still colors the canvas.

I’m sprinkling the tier jumpers in a little differently in this update and I added a group of defensive tackles I like for DT-required lineups but wouldn’t necessarily invest a top 40 DL pick. There will be more analysis of the draft watch prospects in the next 2-4 weeks.

As always, questions, suggestions and challenges are encouraged. Hopefully, there aren’t any major errors in my cut-and-paste process.

Key:

FA=Free Agent

TJ=Tier Jumper (plus signs indicate ceiling tier)

Red=Significant Move from last update (coming in Versions 3.0 and beyond)

**All classifications per Rotoworld (proxy for MFL) on date of this post

**Assume a league with 30-40 DL rostered, 20+ starting DL and balanced scoring system

----------

2.0 / Post Free Agency UpdateElite DL1

JJ Watt

Jason Pierre-Paul

Cameron Wake

Mario Williams

Charles Johnson

Jared Allen

Elite DL1 Upside

Julius Peppers

Geno Atkins (DT)

Greg Hardy

Michael Johnson

DeMarcus Ware

DL2 w/ DL1 Upside

Derrick Morgan

Chandler Jones

Carlos Dunlap

Calais Campbell

Chris Long

Haloti Ngata (DT)

Cliff Avril

Robert Quinn

High Floor DL2

Justin Smith

Rob Ninkovich

Anthony Spencer

Muhammad Wilkerson

Lamarr Houston

Fletcher Cox

Cameron Jordan

Justin Tuck

DL3 / Matchup DL2

Da’Quan Bowers (TJ ++)

Adrian Clayborn (TJ ++)

Kamerion Wimbley (TJ +++)

Jason Babin

Henry Melton (DT)

Brian Robison

Jeremy Mincey

Quinton Coples (TJ +)

Kroy Biermann (TJ ++)

John Abraham (TJ +)

Osi Umenyiora (TJ ++)

Gerald McCoy (DT)

Corey Liuget

Marcell Dareus

Ahtyba Rubin

Derek Wolfe

Bruce Irvin

Arthur Jones

Willie Young (TJ ++)

Everson Griffen (TJ ++)

Chris Clemons (TJ +++)

Darnell Dockett

Michael Bennett

Desmond Bryant

Antonio Smith

Ricky-Jean Francois

Dynasty Stashes

Cliff Matthews (TJ +++)

Corey Wootton (TJ ++)

Jerel Worthy (TJ +)

Shea McClellin (TJ ++)

Malik Jackson

Olivier Vernon

Jared Crick

Andre Branch

Tyrone Crawford

Jack Crawford

Roster in DT-Required Leagues

Kyle Williams

Ndamukong Suh

Nick Fairley

Jason Hatcher

Michael Brockers

Glenn Dorsey

Linval Joseph

Jurrell Casey

Tommy Kelly

Draft Watch

Ezekiel Ansah (OLB)

Tank Carradine

Datone Jones

Dion Jordan (OLB)

Corey Lemonier (OLB)

Barkevious Mingo (OLB)

Sam Montgomery

Damontre Moore

Alex Okafor

Quanterus Smith

Bjoern Werner

Star Lotulelei

Shariff Floyd

Sheldon Richardson

Johnathan Hankins

Sylvester Williams

 

[5-ish Finkle]

So, what made you vault Morgan up to "DL1 Upside", Doc? His high "gets to the QB%"? Gut feeling? Other?

I'm not arguing with you, just curious as to your thought process. I'm heavily invested in Morgan after I "did the math" and saw how often he was getting to the QB last season. A few years back I noticed the same thing about Dunlap and that's turned out pretty well, given all I had to expend to acquire him. Hoping to strike gold twice with Morgan.

 

[Jene Bramel]

So, what made you vault Morgan up to "DL1 Upside", Doc? His high "gets to the QB%"? Gut feeling? Other?I'm not arguing with you, just curious as to your thought process. I'm heavily invested in Morgan after I "did the math" and saw how often he was getting to the QB last season. A few years back I noticed the same thing about Dunlap and that's turned out pretty well, given all I had to expend to acquire him. Hoping to strike gold twice with Morgan.

He should be at the top of the DL2+ tier. My apologies.But, yeah, vast improvement in pass rush numbers in his second year removed from ACL surgery and an expectation that he'll hit the run defense numbers I think he's capable of this year. There's some short and long term durability risk with him, but he's entering his age 26 season. I think he's a good bet to become an all-around statistical player.

 

[buck56]

No Dumervil?

 

[Jene Bramel]

No Dumervil?

I'm classifying players based on Rotoworld's depth charts as of the date of each update. He'll be in the linebacker tiers.

 

[Fullback Fro]

What's up with Shaughnessy? Is he worthless now that he's in AR?

 

[Jene Bramel]

What's up with Shaughnessy? Is he worthless now that he's in AR?

Might be worth a matchup flier in deeper leagues, but I don't see him as anything more than a situational rusher in that scheme. I don't think he fits as an every-down OLB and I'm not sold that they'll consider him as a base defensive 5-technique in their hybrid scheme.

 

[JamesTheScot]

Thoughts on Freeney assuming he signs with Denver or New England?

I shudder if he signs with the Saints and becomes an OLB again. He'd probably be a cut for then.

 

[Packerz]

Not a big name but I would think Jarvis Jenkins could atleast be under Dynasty Watch??

 

[BigSteelThrill]

Osi in the ATL would get a big jump?