Do betting lines affect your fantasy decisions? (1 Viewer)

[editor47]

Just curious if anyone has any strategies utilizing betting lines to help them set their fantasy lineups.

For instance, if you have a player on Team A, which is a 10-point underdog to Team B, but the O/U on the game is low, like 38. Would you look at that and think you should sit the player because the experts are saying Team A won't score more than 14 points?

Just something I thought of looking at lines.

 

[texasbirdfan]

Just curious if anyone has any strategies utilizing betting lines to help them set their fantasy lineups. For instance, if you have a player on Team A, which is a 10-point underdog to Team B, but the O/U on the game is low, like 38. Would you look at that and think you should sit the player because the experts are saying Team A won't score more than 14 points? Just something I thought of looking at lines.

Dude- the "experts" are sitting in Las Vegas- THEY set the betting line where they think the money will fall in the middle- so they make the best vigorish or rake. The "line" is what the public will bet- NOT a true indicator of who will win the game or do well..

 

[urbanhack]

No.

 

[texasbirdfan]

No.

what is your story then? It amazes me that fans don't know about betting lines

 

[Big Sug]

Dude- the "experts" are sitting in Las Vegas- THEY set the betting line where they think the money will fall in the middle- so they make the best vigorish or rake. The "line" is what the public will bet- NOT a true indicator of who will win the game or do well.

common misconception. the books are trying to beat the players and have a rooting interest in most games.and yes I look at sides and totals when making close lineup decisions.

 

[urbanhack]

No.

what is your story then? It amazes me that fans don't know about betting lines

Why would Team A being favored by 3 instead of 5 or 6 affect a decision to start a RB or WR from Team A?

 

[Todem]

No.

 

[The Man with the Plan]

 

[texasbirdfan]

wtf

Where do you think the LINE comes from? The football god in the sky? It is the casinos and bookies who take the money in and pay the money out and take their share. They control what the line is to make sure they don't lose their butt. America always over bets on certain teams like the Cowboys which affects the line. Who do you think does it is then Goodell?

 

[Mark87]

No, I don't look at that.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

Yes. I tend to pick up or drop new kickers and defenses each week, and I often try to get kickers on teams expected to score a lot of points, and defenses expected to give up few points.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

No.

what is your story then? It amazes me that fans don't know about betting lines

Why would Team A being favored by 3 instead of 5 or 6 affect a decision to start a RB or WR from Team A?

If, based on the spread and over-under, one team is expected to score 14 points while another is expected to score 28 points, that wouldn't be a factor nudging you in favor of starting someone from the latter team over someone from the former team?For those of you who follow the FBG projections, you are already taking this into account. The Game Predictor is independent of the point spread (and in fact has beaten the spread historically) -- but it does the same thing (figuring out which teams will score how many points) and it's the starting point for the FBG projections.

 

[Sarnoff]

Yes, if I have a close call to make with a DEF, sometimes a kicker.

 

[tribecalledjeff]

Yes, I use the betting lines. Totals/spread give you an idea of what Vegas expects each team to score. Vegas is a hell of a lot smarter than 95% of people.

If you've ever looked at Dodds' Game Predictor and matched it up with Vegas totals, they are extremely close. Yes, he gets to it a different way, and yes, games are sometimes different, but they are very close.

Especially if all other things are equal (or even similar), why would you NOT use this info?

In tonight's game, SD was a 2 point dog and Vegas made the total 48. Dodds' game predictor made SD a 1.5 point dog and the total 46.5. Other math models may vary slightly. But these model results and the Vegas totals are not close to each other by coincidence. Either way, you can determine that a good starting point for the final score would be 25-22, or somewhere in that area. By comparison, the Rams/Cardinals game looks to be projected to be about a 28-14 win for AZ.

If you don't think that knowing that math and Vegas projecting Tennessee to score 11 more points than STL helps you when it comes to deciding between players on those teams, you're crazy. Is it always accurate? Obviously not, but it's a great starting point, and I'm guessing it's how Dodds' starts his projections. So if you look at those, you basically use spreads/totals without even realizing it.

 

[tribecalledjeff]

No.

what is your story then? It amazes me that fans don't know about betting lines

Why would Team A being favored by 3 instead of 5 or 6 affect a decision to start a RB or WR from Team A?

If, based on the spread and over-under, one team is expected to score 14 points while another is expected to score 28 points, that wouldn't be a factor nudging you in favor of starting someone from the latter team over someone from the former team?For those of you who follow the FBG projections, you are already taking this into account. The Game Predictor is independent of the point spread (and in fact has beaten the spread historically) -- but it does the same thing (figuring out which teams will score how many points) and it's the starting point for the FBG projections.

Is this true? I've always wondered about that.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

Yes. I tend to pick up or drop new kickers and defenses each week, and I often try to get kickers on teams expected to score a lot of points, and defenses expected to give up few points.

Kicker and defensive selections can often be influenced by the LV lines.Granted there are numerous other factors (field type, weather, game location, red zone efficiency, etc.) but the point is that the LV line exists and is a point of information to use when you are setting a lineup. Moreover, it is set by guys who know what they are doing more often than not, so the info is probably going to be pretty good. So why not use it?

 

[bengalbuck]

Yes, I use the Vegas lines. I find that they are especially helpful in trying to sort through all the info about teams resting players.

For example, I was going back and forth on whether to sit Reggie Wayne last week but checking the line and seeing that Indy was still a solid favorite against Jacksonville made the decision pretty easy.

The fact that the Colts are 5.5 point favorites this Sunday despite all the talk of resting players indicates to me that those that really know what's going on believe they are going to be playing their guys. Thus, I'm riding with Reggie in the finals.

 

[zoobird]

This stuff about 'some teams are always overbet' is nonsense...for every idiot who automatically bets on Cowboys, there's someone willing to place a bet against them anytime the line looks wrong. Vegas' closing lines are VERY sharp. Turns out that the 'public' is pretty smart, because the most knowledgeable people end up being the ones who bet the largest amounts of money, and move the line. That in turn CAN be useful for fantasy. If I have two runnings back rated even, I'll go with the one whose team is heavily favored...not only is the team likely to score more, but they're likely to be feeding him the ball to protect their lead. While I could certainly make my own judgment about which team should be favored, and by how much, the lines are going to be more accurate than what 99.999% of us (in other words, all but maybe 1 or 2 people on this board) can come up with.

 

[Leroy's Aces]

Absolutely.

 

[texasbirdfan]

This stuff about 'some teams are always overbet' is nonsense...for every idiot who automatically bets on Cowboys, there's someone willing to place a bet against them anytime the line looks wrong. Vegas' closing lines are VERY sharp. Turns out that the 'public' is pretty smart, because the most knowledgeable people end up being the ones who bet the largest amounts of money, and move the line. That in turn CAN be useful for fantasy. If I have two runnings back rated even, I'll go with the one whose team is heavily favored...not only is the team likely to score more, but they're likely to be feeding him the ball to protect their lead. While I could certainly make my own judgment about which team should be favored, and by how much, the lines are going to be more accurate than what 99.999% of us (in other words, all but maybe 1 or 2 people on this board) can come up with.

lolyep, that's why the gamblers are the richest segment of our population.