Do rookie QBs rely on RBs and TEs more than veterans? (1 Viewer)

[dgreen]

Inspiration

I often hear, "RBs and TEs should get more receptions with a rookie QB."

Data source

Seasons file from pfr.

Methodology

First, I found all rookie QBs with 300+ pass attempts since 1978. (Note I used "minimum year" to determine rookies. Carson Palmer's second year, for example, is included in this data because he didn't play his rookie year.) This resulted in 25 QBs. Next, I gathered all RB, TE, and WR receptions for those teams in those years. Then, I summed receptions by position and calculated the percentage of receptions by position in years a rookie QB threw 300+ passes. (An obvious flaw here is that there could be other QBs on these teams who threw passes to the RBs, TEs, and WRs.) Then, I found the total receptions by position in the NFL for each year from 1978-2006.

Results

RB receptions for rookies: 29.6%

RB receptions for NFL: 30.4%

TE receptions for rookies: 16.8%

TE receptions for NFL: 17.0%

WR receptions for rookies: 53.6%

WR receptions for NFL: 52.5%

Distribution of QB differences in WR receptions in given year:

(Example: In 1993, Drew Bledsoe's WRs had 43.9% of the team's receptions. WR receptions for the NFL in 1993 was 54.1%. So, the difference is -10.2.)

Drew Bledsoe -10.2Jim Kelly -7.7Tim Couch -7.2Bruce Gradkowski -7.1David Woodley -6.4David Carr -6.4Jeff Garcia -5.6Joey Harrington -5.6Peyton Manning -5.0Chris Weinke -4.7Steve Deberg -3.3Dieter Brock 0.4Vince Young 0.7Warren Moon 1.2Jeff George 1.3Byron Leftwich 1.4Rick Mirer 1.8Kerry Collins 5.0Kyle Orton 6.4Jack Trudeau 6.9Jeff Komlo 7.7Tony Banks 9.4Carson Palmer 12.0Matt Leinart 13.3Charlie Batch 15.5Average is 0.5 percentage points, or 0.005. Standard deviation is 0.07. So, one standard deviation will be between -6.8 percentage points and 7.9 percentage points of the league average. That's a fairly big range, IMO.Maybe more detailed data without my current flaws would yield more interesting conclusions. But, as of now, I'm not sure I buy the theory that an inexperienced QB is more likely to lean on his RBs and TEs in the passing game than an experienced QB. These 25 rookies as a whole do not significantly differ from the NFL as a whole and these rookies range from 10 percentage points less than the NFL to 15 percentage points more than the NFL.

 

[mlball77]

I'll need more time to read through all that you've presented here. Good stuff though. Thanks!

Its odd though, my gut instinct has always been that rookie QBs often air it out a bit more and force bad passes deep (typically to WRs); things that they could get away with in college but not in the pros. So I would think the opposite of the theory you are examining. Strange.

I also have a gut feeling that rookie QBs are more prone to lock into one WR much more than experienced QBs who are more likely to spread the ball around better and take what is given them by D's. Its always interesting to examine these things using stats.

 

[GregR_2]

Interesting topic to look at. I wonder if some different ways of looking at it might be helpful. For example, find a bunch of rookie QBs who had fairly stable situations in terms of receiving and RB corp for their first 3 years, and see how their pass distribution varied by year?

 

[dgreen]

Interesting topic to look at. I wonder if some different ways of looking at it might be helpful. For example, find a bunch of rookie QBs who had fairly stable situations in terms of receiving and RB corp for their first 3 years, and see how their pass distribution varied by year?

My next step was going to be to compare those 25 QBs to what they did the following year and later in their career. But, alas, my workday was over and I headed home for the weekend. Maybe I'll do that Monday if nobody else does over the weekend.

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

I would suspect they target their primary read more often, not necessarily a RB or TE. Like anything else, just a guess.

Or maybe rookie QBs do have a preference... for what they did in college. If they had a deep threat they liked to hit in college, they might over emphasize that as a rookie. Or dumpoff passes if they had a safety valve RB in college.

 

[dgreen]

I would suspect they target their primary read more often, not necessarily a RB or TE. Like anything else, just a guess.

Right. I think what I see people say a lot is that a coach will call "easy" plays for a rookie QB, like short patterns to RBs and TEs. Or, the thought seems to be that a rookie QB may look to one WR, then dump the ball off to his safety valve, like a RB, if the WR isn't open.So far, it seems to me that rookie QBs don't seem to favor a position more than any other QB, but I admit my methodology is incomplete at best.

 

[dgreen]

Interesting topic to look at. I wonder if some different ways of looking at it might be helpful. For example, find a bunch of rookie QBs who had fairly stable situations in terms of receiving and RB corp for their first 3 years, and see how their pass distribution varied by year?

Of the 25 QBs above, 14 were the primary QB the following year. I compared the team's receptions by position in their first year to their second year and here are the differences at WR:

Jim Kelly		 11.5Jeff Garcia		8.1David Woodley	  6.5Peyton Manning	 5.3Byron Leftwich	 2.9Rick Mirer		 2.4Carson Palmer	 -1.6Drew Bledsoe	  -1.7Jeff George	   -5.3Joey Harrington   -5.5Warren Moon	   -5.6Steve Deberg	  -6.6Kerry Collins	 -9.0Tony Banks	   -16.5

So, Jim Kelly threw to his WRs 38.1% of the time his rookie year and 49.6% his second year, giving him an 11.5 increase. As with the earlier numbers, they are all over the board. Some QBs increased their distribution to WRs, others decreased.Still nothing to show me that experience is a factor in a QBs targets.