Islander
Footballguy
Do the Bills really have a chance to beat the Pats? At first glance, no, especially not without M Lynch. I would certainly not claim that the Bills will win ("mark it down" 
), but consider this:
1. In general, I am less surprised when a very good team loses to a weaker team when it's an intra-division game.
2. The game is in Buffalo. The Bills could get blown away, but if somehow they can make it a close game in the first half, the crowd might lift them.
3. Injuries can happen. I am not predicting injury, but Brady being knocked out of the game in the first quarter is not an impossible scenario. The man is not a robot.
4. Special teams. I don't see the Bills having four long sustained drives against the Pats, but the Bills almost won against Dallas based on special teams alone.
5. Lee Evans. Very inconsistent, yes. But a couple of blown coverages and/or good moves with Losman getting "lucky" by hitting him in stride on a bomb could mean a couple of long TDs.
6. Refs. I am not for or against the Pats, but what I saw in Indy made me wonder if the refs are not be more inclined to give some close calls to the home dog rather than the Pats.
7. Turnovers. Brady does not turn the ball over often, but he's had bad games against the weak Dolphins in previous years. Brady could throw 2-3 INTs this weekend, maybe even returned for a TD - it's not impossible.
8. Indy game two weeks ago. The Pats played on the road against possibly the second best team in the league and won, so it's impressive by itself. But for the first time of the season, they were held in check for three quarters. The Bills are not the Colts, but at least it's now conceivable to hold the Pats offense down for a few drives.
9. Let down factor. After a big win, some teams sometimes struggle to stay focused against a lesser opponent in their next game. Usually not the Pats, but letdowns are more frequent after big wins than after "normal" wins.
10. Pats bye week. Usually a bye week is beneficial. I don't think the Pats are the kind of team to come out unprepared after a bye. But historically, we have seen top teams coming out flat after a long rest.
11. Four game win streak for the Bills. The Bills are hot and are not going into the game with a down attitude. They lost two games on the last play (Denver, Dallas) - could be a 7-2 team with some luck. The Bills got blown out by the Steelers and Patriots earlier this year in two road games, but at least those games were not out of hand at halftime (17-7 Pats, 12-0 Steelers and then 12-3 Steelers in the third qtr). The Bills are not an NFL doormat team.
Now of course all those factors taken in isolation are minor, very unlikely, and in some cases they are admittedly major reaches on my part. Anybody could come up with a list of 100+ factors as to why the Pats will crush the Bills, and anybody could easily dismiss all my arguments one by one. But my point is that when you take all factors in combination, one or two of them happening at the same time is not unrealistic. The Vegas line implies that the Bills have a 9% chance of winning and this is probably more than most people would think. In some people's mind, the Bills have less than 1% chance of winning. Don't fall into that trap.
From memory, does anybody remember NFL teams which were underdogs by 16+ and ended up winning the game? What's the biggest upset you can remember? The Pats beating the Rams in the SB is an example, but I think the line was 14.5 so it's not as much as Sunday's game. In college there are several examples of that, but a 16-pt underdog in college is a lot more likely to win than a 16 pt dog in the NFL so we should limit this to the NFL.
), but consider this:1. In general, I am less surprised when a very good team loses to a weaker team when it's an intra-division game.
2. The game is in Buffalo. The Bills could get blown away, but if somehow they can make it a close game in the first half, the crowd might lift them.
3. Injuries can happen. I am not predicting injury, but Brady being knocked out of the game in the first quarter is not an impossible scenario. The man is not a robot.
4. Special teams. I don't see the Bills having four long sustained drives against the Pats, but the Bills almost won against Dallas based on special teams alone.
5. Lee Evans. Very inconsistent, yes. But a couple of blown coverages and/or good moves with Losman getting "lucky" by hitting him in stride on a bomb could mean a couple of long TDs.
6. Refs. I am not for or against the Pats, but what I saw in Indy made me wonder if the refs are not be more inclined to give some close calls to the home dog rather than the Pats.
7. Turnovers. Brady does not turn the ball over often, but he's had bad games against the weak Dolphins in previous years. Brady could throw 2-3 INTs this weekend, maybe even returned for a TD - it's not impossible.
8. Indy game two weeks ago. The Pats played on the road against possibly the second best team in the league and won, so it's impressive by itself. But for the first time of the season, they were held in check for three quarters. The Bills are not the Colts, but at least it's now conceivable to hold the Pats offense down for a few drives.
9. Let down factor. After a big win, some teams sometimes struggle to stay focused against a lesser opponent in their next game. Usually not the Pats, but letdowns are more frequent after big wins than after "normal" wins.
10. Pats bye week. Usually a bye week is beneficial. I don't think the Pats are the kind of team to come out unprepared after a bye. But historically, we have seen top teams coming out flat after a long rest.
11. Four game win streak for the Bills. The Bills are hot and are not going into the game with a down attitude. They lost two games on the last play (Denver, Dallas) - could be a 7-2 team with some luck. The Bills got blown out by the Steelers and Patriots earlier this year in two road games, but at least those games were not out of hand at halftime (17-7 Pats, 12-0 Steelers and then 12-3 Steelers in the third qtr). The Bills are not an NFL doormat team.
Now of course all those factors taken in isolation are minor, very unlikely, and in some cases they are admittedly major reaches on my part. Anybody could come up with a list of 100+ factors as to why the Pats will crush the Bills, and anybody could easily dismiss all my arguments one by one. But my point is that when you take all factors in combination, one or two of them happening at the same time is not unrealistic. The Vegas line implies that the Bills have a 9% chance of winning and this is probably more than most people would think. In some people's mind, the Bills have less than 1% chance of winning. Don't fall into that trap.
From memory, does anybody remember NFL teams which were underdogs by 16+ and ended up winning the game? What's the biggest upset you can remember? The Pats beating the Rams in the SB is an example, but I think the line was 14.5 so it's not as much as Sunday's game. In college there are several examples of that, but a 16-pt underdog in college is a lot more likely to win than a 16 pt dog in the NFL so we should limit this to the NFL.
If Brady doesnt last more then the first series, it becomes a coin flip rather fast.
