Do you add or subtract value from holdouts/babys? (1 Viewer)

[Badgers Fan]

So when a player holds out, it is very common (assuming the holdout is rather lengthy, and we are approaching the point where it is too much) that he has a season sub par to what is expected of him. Using ADP's from FFC I'll give a few examples:

Mike Wallace is getting drafted as the wr11. All reports are good on Big Ben, and Todd Haley is assumed to have a passing offense that really helps #1 receivers (see Dwayne Bowe). Regardless of what many think of Antonio Brown, IMO Wallace is the #1. So does this make Mike a big time value or fools gold (looks good, but the holdout gets to him).

Matt Forte is getting drafted as the rb12. Last year he was an uber-stud pre-injury. His injury was not bad enough to keep him out of the pro-bowl, so he should be in good physical shape. Bush is muchhhh better than Barber, but Barber did average 10 carries a game and have 6 tds in 11 games. Forte is never really the goal line back, but he churns out so many yards, and especially for ppr purposes, he is a threat to be a top 5 rb. So..do Bush, the injury scare (people are still worried considering the Bears are too), and the hold out help make him a value or fools gold?

You can post any amount of hold outs in here. This is not a thread to discuss these particular players. I'm just wondering how people evaluate players like this. Do you target them thinking they are values, or ignore them trying to be risk-adverse?

 

[ConnSKINS26]

Babys?

 

[bucsbaby]

Babys?

 

[KCitons]

I know there is a new CBA and I don't know how it has changed the current or future negotiations. But, I know that every year, there is a group of players that are at risk of holding out. The one thing I know, is that most(if not all) of them report for training camp (either with a new contract, or under their current deal)

I find it improbable to think that Brees, Forte, MJD, Rice, Wallace, Harvin, Bowe, and Revis (plus other non-elite's) would all hold out. Perhaps one (or at most two) of these players may hold out. But, do you drop the value of every "potential" holdout to adjust for the one true holdout.

 

[ldizzle]

Babys?

See Antonio Cromartie, father of 10 soon to be 12.Used in a sentence:"That Antonio Cromartie guy has a lot of baby's!"

 

[Badgers Fan]

Babys?

Yup. I understand why players hold out... but when you are making enough money to buy a mansion, I consider you a baby if you take the focus off of the team and completely and make all the media attention go on you just so you can afford another mansion.

 

[Badgers Fan]

I know there is a new CBA and I don't know how it has changed the current or future negotiations. But, I know that every year, there is a group of players that are at risk of holding out. The one thing I know, is that most(if not all) of them report for training camp (either with a new contract, or under their current deal) I find it improbable to think that Brees, Forte, MJD, Rice, Wallace, Harvin, Bowe, and Revis (plus other non-elite's) would all hold out. Perhaps one (or at most two) of these players may hold out. But, do you drop the value of every "potential" holdout to adjust for the one true holdout.

Players that have lengthy hold outs come into camp not in peak physical shape. Much like Chris Johnson last year. Just one example, and I'm sure I can dig up many others, but I'm just saying it does happen and at least I consider it something to keep an eye on.

 

[KCitons]

I know there is a new CBA and I don't know how it has changed the current or future negotiations. But, I know that every year, there is a group of players that are at risk of holding out. The one thing I know, is that most(if not all) of them report for training camp (either with a new contract, or under their current deal) I find it improbable to think that Brees, Forte, MJD, Rice, Wallace, Harvin, Bowe, and Revis (plus other non-elite's) would all hold out. Perhaps one (or at most two) of these players may hold out. But, do you drop the value of every "potential" holdout to adjust for the one true holdout.

Players that have lengthy hold outs come into camp not in peak physical shape. Much like Chris Johnson last year. Just one example, and I'm sure I can dig up many others, but I'm just saying it does happen and at least I consider it something to keep an eye on.

Sure, I can see some merit to your point. But, as I stated, which players do you downgrade? If you downgrade all of them, then you are passing on some first round talent.

 

[vesihiisi]

Yup. I understand why players hold out... but when you are making enough money to buy a mansion, I consider you a baby if you take the focus off of the team and completely and make all the media attention go on you just so you can afford another mansion.

They're picking on your incorrect spelling of the word "babies."The guys generate billions of dollars and have a right to earn high salaries. They're retiring before 40, often living with broken bodies and mush for brains, only to be bilked and hustled out of their fortunes by every crook that passes as a second cousin. They've got to get while the getting's good.

 

[Badgers Fan]

Yup. I understand why players hold out... but when you are making enough money to buy a mansion, I consider you a baby if you take the focus off of the team and completely and make all the media attention go on you just so you can afford another mansion.

They're picking on your incorrect spelling of the word "babies."The guys generate billions of dollars and have a right to earn high salaries. They're retiring before 40, often living with broken bodies and mush for brains, only to be bilked and hustled out of their fortunes by every crook that passes as a second cousin. They've got to get while the getting's good.

Dang it. Where's auto correct when you need it?

 

[KellysHeroes]

The Wallace one scares me since I remember VJax's all too well... and this is worse. MW is missing valuable time with a new OC and playbook. But hell, if I was the best player on the team and played my contract out only to get a 2.something million thrown my way I would holdout too, really hope the kid gets his.

Harvin isn't holding out yet and I think they can work this out, MJD is a vet and will be fine.

 

[Crazy Tony]

Michael Crabtree held out signed deal mid October rookie year.

Vjackson held out but came back for 6 games or something.

Joey Galloway sat out the entire 1999 season (Going back deep)

Consider Mark Clayton, super sleeper, was leading the league in Rec Yards through week 8 then blue out his knee.

It was final year of a cheap contract. Wasn't able to be ready for next season and get a new one.

Even when it's going well in the NFL it can end poorly.

Similar situation happened with Steve Smith NYG/PHI/STL 107 receptions to where are they now status.

I don't fault the players for holding out.

When VJax came back he had 3 TDs in one game. Then cramped up in his calves and missed 2 games.

I think Rookie Dez Bryant was a hold out and showed up to camp eventually in bad shape with hamstrings. Don't recall all details. But that impacted his season I'm sure.

For dynasty leagues I think you look to grab those valuable players that are hold outs.

Chances are they're talented. If someone is worried about decreased production you can capitalize.

If you're the owner, I wouldn't sweat the possible decreased production but I would be monitor situation, be patient and don't panick but make give yourself a cheap backup plan with reserves.

 

[az_prof]

Michael Crabtree held out signed deal mid October rookie year.Vjackson held out but came back for 6 games or something.Joey Galloway sat out the entire 1999 season (Going back deep)Consider Mark Clayton, super sleeper, was leading the league in Rec Yards through week 8 then blue out his knee. It was final year of a cheap contract. Wasn't able to be ready for next season and get a new one. Even when it's going well in the NFL it can end poorly. Similar situation happened with Steve Smith NYG/PHI/STL 107 receptions to where are they now status. I don't fault the players for holding out. When VJax came back he had 3 TDs in one game. Then cramped up in his calves and missed 2 games. I think Rookie Dez Bryant was a hold out and showed up to camp eventually in bad shape with hamstrings. Don't recall all details. But that impacted his season I'm sure. For dynasty leagues I think you look to grab those valuable players that are hold outs. Chances are they're talented. If someone is worried about decreased production you can capitalize. If you're the owner, I wouldn't sweat the possible decreased production but I would be monitor situation, be patient and don't panick but make give yourself a cheap backup plan with reserves.

Hold outs are never good. Guys seem to get injured more. And they aren't keeping up to speed with team tactics and playbook. Plus, they could get traded to a crappy team and then have to learn a whole new offense. On the other hand, I try not to panick. It is still early. But if they are still holding out by the second preseason game, that's time to panick.

 

[David Yudkin]

I don't see how players holding or threatening to hold out helps their fantasy value. Put another way, guys that miss camp or don't do everything that is required in a timely manner don't put up the same numbers and/or get nagging injuries. When was the last time someone held out and then went nuts on his return?

 

[ImTheScientist]

Babys?

 

[ImTheScientist]

I don't see how players holding or threatening to hold out helps their fantasy value. Put another way, guys that miss camp or don't do everything that is required in a timely manner don't put up the same numbers and/or get nagging injuries. When was the last time someone held out and then went nuts on his return?

Emmitt Smith, 1993.

 

[KCitons]

One of the few that comes to mind is Emmitt Smith. After his holdout in 1993, he went on to win the rushing title IIRC.

 

[SageAdvice]

I don't see how players holding or threatening to hold out helps their fantasy value. Put another way, guys that miss camp or don't do everything that is required in a timely manner don't put up the same numbers and/or get nagging injuries. When was the last time someone held out and then went nuts on his return?

Emmitt Smith, 1993.

So, if one of the holdouts explodes this year, that will be once every 19 seasons.

 

[bucsbaby]

Yup. I understand why players hold out... but when you are making enough money to buy a mansion, I consider you a baby if you take the focus off of the team and completely and make all the media attention go on you just so you can afford another mansion.

They're picking on your incorrect spelling of the word "babies."The guys generate billions of dollars and have a right to earn high salaries. They're retiring before 40, often living with broken bodies and mush for brains, only to be bilked and hustled out of their fortunes by every crook that passes as a second cousin. They've got to get while the getting's good.

It's not just the misspelling, it's also the lack of understanding as to why players hold out. It doesn't matter whether the player can afford to by a mansion or not, nfl contracts aren't worth the paper they are written on, and players have a limited window of opportunity to make what they are worth in a multi-billion dollar industry. Edit to add: Players are often on the butt end of "the NFL's a business" (e.g., when they are released/traded/etc.). When they're on the other end, it doesn't make them "babys"

 

[Sweet Love]

I certainly downgrade people that sit out for some time, and never end up with them on my team (which I am fine with). Even if I just downgrade the player by one round, chances are at least one of the other 11 members of my league will not and take that player in their originally projected round.

 

[az_prof]

E. Smith is the exception that proves the rule. However, I will say that RBs are affected less than receivers and QBs. Timing and knowing the playbook inside/out is SO important in the passing game. The running game is far more instinctual. Plus, a RB COULD get nicked up in practice and that could end up hurting him too--so he avoids wear and tear. Still, if the HB is lazy and doesn't work out religiously, he can come into camp out of shape and then get hurt.

But, I would downgrade receivers more than running backs in general.

 

[KCitons]

After some of the signings the past few days, I think we are seeing why it would be foolish to adjust players ADP based on contract talks in June.