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Do you start prepping for your draft this time of year? (1 Viewer)

Hawkeye21

Hawkeye21

Footballguy
The draft is easily my favorite part of fantasy football for me.  I don't know why but I just love prepping for it even though it's all guessing and I'm wrong more times than right.

Do any of you start preparing this time of year already?  Now that the draft is over I like to start getting ready.  I start adding in all the rookies into my spreadsheet where I will put in projected stats for all players and then the formula will give me projected points along with auction values.  Once I have that done I occasionally go back and revise my projected stats as we get closer to the season.

 
Mavis said:
Starting a little bit late arent you? Months ago for me. 
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LOL.  I didn't just start.  I start as soon as the season is over.  My main league is an auction and I put what all the players sold for into a spreadsheet.  At the end of the season I put in how many points they finished with and their average points per game.  I have about 5 years of data now.  It helps me determine which players are the most consistent year after year.

 
Hawkeye21 said:
The draft is easily my favorite part of fantasy football for me.  I don't know why but I just love prepping for it even though it's all guessing and I'm wrong more times than right.

Do any of you start preparing this time of year already?  Now that the draft is over I like to start getting ready.  I start adding in all the rookies into my spreadsheet where I will put in projected stats for all players and then the formula will give me projected points along with auction values.  Once I have that done I occasionally go back and revise my projected stats as we get closer to the season.
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I got 6 dynasty leagues, just completed 1 rookie and the other 5 are starting this month. My early redraft starts May 22. Yeah, year round.

 
This might come down to type of league and what you consider prepping?  If reading stuff on sites like this is considered prepping then I'm year round.  But in any redraft league I am in I really don't start really putting in work until just before the draft.  I feel I am pretty prepared anyway because I do read up here year round.  Come redraft time I will wait until close to my draft, print out some rankings, and then add my notes about players I am moving up or down.

 
Hawkeye21 said:
The draft is easily my favorite part of fantasy football for me.  I don't know why but I just love prepping for it even though it's all guessing and I'm wrong more times than right.

Do any of you start preparing this time of year already?  Now that the draft is over I like to start getting ready.  I start adding in all the rookies into my spreadsheet where I will put in projected stats for all players and then the formula will give me projected points along with auction values.  Once I have that done I occasionally go back and revise my projected stats as we get closer to the season.
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Ever tried a MFL10?

 
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Warhogs said:
This might come down to type of league and what you consider prepping?  If reading stuff on sites like this is considered prepping then I'm year round.  But in any redraft league I am in I really don't start really putting in work until just before the draft.  I feel I am pretty prepared anyway because I do read up here year round.  Come redraft time I will wait until close to my draft, print out some rankings, and then add my notes about players I am moving up or down.
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My initial thought on prepping was compiling information like stats and projections.  Things like making spreadsheets and developing a draft strategy.

I didn't really think about the reading and watching film stuff since I figured we pretty much all do that year round.

 
BradtheAg said:
Ever tried a MFL10?
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I have.  Did one last year and a couple the year before.  The problem for me is that I'm in Iowa and things like MFL, Fan Duel and Draft Kings where there are fees and payouts in are not allowed.  I also prefer auctions or snake drafts.

 
Working on my projected stats right now.

I do weighted averages for each player based on the last three years as a starting point for projections.

I adjust those projections every week or two leading up to the draft based on depth chart changes, reading up on camp reports and discussions here.

It's a little time consuming but I enjoy it and feel like it keeps me at least familiar with tons of players.

 
Hawkeye21 said:
I have.  Did one last year and a couple the year before.  The problem for me is that I'm in Iowa and things like MFL, Fan Duel and Draft Kings where there are fees and payouts in are not allowed.  I also prefer auctions or snake drafts.
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I would have to consider moving if I was in a situation where I could not play high stakes due to government interference.

 
Hawkeye21 said:
What do you do in order to prepare?  Do you just read articles and player reports or do you keep your own data on players?
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I go back and look at how guys did last year compared to expectations.

I look and see what guys I was wrong on and why

Check to see how players have performed the last few seasons

Read up on offseason moves and how they may impact the fantasy season

Start looking at ADP data and mocks

Start doing mocks around the June/July timeframe

Read as much as you can

 
While I did some preliminary stuff very similar to what icecat describes above. The 3 year average of all relevant players in VBD and PPG as a starting point for team projections. But I don't do the team projections until after the NFL draft and I don't always project for every team, so I usually have some holes somewhere and some players that I skip. But yes now is the time of year where I will start getting into the nitty gritty of each team and how opportunities might be distributed to the players in 2017.

I was thinking about trying to do a team projections thread for feedback and discussion. I miss those conversations that were had more often due to spotlight threads in the past.

 
Biabreakable said:
While I did some preliminary stuff very similar to what icecat describes above. The 3 year average of all relevant players in VBD and PPG as a starting point for team projections. But I don't do the team projections until after the NFL draft and I don't always project for every team, so I usually have some holes somewhere and some players that I skip. But yes now is the time of year where I will start getting into the nitty gritty of each team and how opportunities might be distributed to the players in 2017.

I was thinking about trying to do a team projections thread for feedback and discussion. I miss those conversations that were had more often due to spotlight threads in the past.
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It sounds like I do my projections very similar to you.  I would be interested in threads on the team projections.  There are a couple teams I don't know what to do with, Ravens, Cin, Washington are a couple that I can see going many ways and it would be interesting to hear others takes on them.

 
I really like the idea of have threads for team projections.  Have a thread for each team and then break down the projections for each player on that team.

 
I used to prep at this time. Turned out to be a big waste of time. Injuries, roster moves, etc can drastically change your rankings. Plus life just got very busy for me. Hawkeye I believe you and I are either the same age or within a couple of years. When I was in college and my 20s I had time to put in ridiculous hours for the draft. Now with a job, family, responsibilities it becomes more difficult. Especially in the summer time. What's been refreshing is I have noticed I've actually done better in my fantasy leagues prepping less for the draft. I think the last 2 seasons I was even surprised to see what players switched teams. I remember one specific scenario where I saw a guy drafted and I went to select him on my DD and I said, wow he plays for xxx now?! I felt stupid. But, I've been winning the less I prepare (lol). 

I usually stay away from these forums after week 16, so this is weird for me to even be contributing here at this time of the year, so naturally I will not place next season. 

I think the best prep comes a couple of weeks before whenever your draft is. It's good to see where FAs land, rookies are drafted, etc. But Julio Jones could get hurt the day before your draft putting Gabriel much higher on your draft board, so I usually wait and see how injuries and depth charts shake out before I start doing any draft prep. Not to mention there is so much hype around rookies and FA signings right now and a lot of it is over-done and should calm down. Whenever doing draft prep it's better to leave emotion out of it completely. 

 
Do you guys think a separate teams projections thread for each team would be the way to go? Or just one thread for people to share team projections in, to keep them all in one place?

I can see some advantages to both approaches. What do you guys think?

I am still trying to catch up on watching some of the rookies I haven't yet. In a week or so I figure I will start doing team projections.

I have looked at some of Dodds projections and also Bob Henrys. Interesting stuff and I mostly just looked at the QBs. I thought Dodds was a bit low on pass attempts across the board and Henrys numbers were closer to what QBs have been doing the last few seasons. Henry's numbers include some missed games, which is interesting but not something I usually do.

I also checked out Jason Woods projections and he had Teddy Bridgewater starting some games. I hope he is right about that.  :)

eta- I just had another idea about team projections. What if we posted team projections in each teams thread? Then let the homers pick the projections apart from their perspective of more intimate knowledge of the team? 

I could see getting a lot of push back from team fans, but that kind of feedback really helpful, especially for a team that you may not be very familiar with.

 
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MattFancy said:
I think a thread for each team would work best
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I agree a thread for each team would be best.  So would we create a specific team projection thread or use the current team threads that already exist.  I'm just thinking about there being too much clutter.

 
Hawkeye21 said:
I agree a thread for each team would be best.  So would we create a specific team projection thread or use the current team threads that already exist.  I'm just thinking about there being too much clutter.
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I think a specific projection thread for each would work best. That way the projections don't get lost in just random offseason talk.

 
Dr. Dan said:
I used to prep at this time. Turned out to be a big waste of time. Injuries, roster moves, etc can drastically change your rankings. Plus life just got very busy for me. Hawkeye I believe you and I are either the same age or within a couple of years. When I was in college and my 20s I had time to put in ridiculous hours for the draft. Now with a job, family, responsibilities it becomes more difficult. Especially in the summer time. What's been refreshing is I have noticed I've actually done better in my fantasy leagues prepping less for the draft. I think the last 2 seasons I was even surprised to see what players switched teams. I remember one specific scenario where I saw a guy drafted and I went to select him on my DD and I said, wow he plays for xxx now?! I felt stupid. But, I've been winning the less I prepare (lol). 

I usually stay away from these forums after week 16, so this is weird for me to even be contributing here at this time of the year, so naturally I will not place next season. 

I think the best prep comes a couple of weeks before whenever your draft is. It's good to see where FAs land, rookies are drafted, etc. But Julio Jones could get hurt the day before your draft putting Gabriel much higher on your draft board, so I usually wait and see how injuries and depth charts shake out before I start doing any draft prep. Not to mention there is so much hype around rookies and FA signings right now and a lot of it is over-done and should calm down. Whenever doing draft prep it's better to leave emotion out of it completely. 
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I know it's really early and a lot can happen but I just enjoy doing it.  More of a hobby type thing.  I do it when I have some free time at work and at home occasionally.

 
I take some time off after the fantasy season to refresh.  Inevitably, by the end of fantasy season the hobby starts to feel like "work" instead of a game.  Once the draft and free agency is done, and the schedule is released, there is far more clarity for ranking players due to knowing more about depth charts, teams they are playing for, strength of schedule, bye weeks, etc. that it makes sense to start prepping at that point.  By that time, I start getting the itch for football to return and to determine which players I want to target and follow for my teams in the upcoming season.  I just start with a raw ranking of players and then start tweaking from there as training camp starts, and position battles/injuries occur. 

 
Dr. Dan said:
What's been refreshing is I have noticed I've actually done better in my fantasy leagues prepping less for the draft.
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Yes, sometimes less time is better since it prevents overanalysis and you just have to pick players based on gut feel. 

 
flapgreen said:
I've had much more consistent success preparing 15 minutes before draft. 
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That can certainly be true.  The one dynasty league I'm in I don't take all that seriously.  I've been in it 3 years and never made the online draft so it was on auto for me.  I've gotten 3rd, 1st and 2nd in those years.  I do very little management for that league compared to my main two leagues.

That being said, I still enjoy prepping for the season.

 
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