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Do you trust Trent Edwards and Lee Evans this year? (1 Viewer)

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benm3218

Footballguy
In my dynasty league I have held onto Lee Evans for a few years. He is very cheap on my roster and we are a pretty deep league.

I've adjusted my perception of him. I can see the writing on the wall. He is getting older and although he has a significant bit of talent his situation remains perpetually bad. It's a sad part of dynasty life. Good player saddled with sucky team = poor player.

For example, I doubt many would say Gaffney is more talented than Evans, but there is little doubt in my mind that Gaffney will outperform Evans this year.

Evans has historically had boom and bust games. A bunch of games where he catches 4 or 5 balls for 60 yards then a game he gets a 60 yard TD.

This year has all the makings of a potential coalescing of the ingredients for solid production. Edwards doesn't appear horrible, Evans is the only receiver outside of Roscoe Parrish who has caught balls for the team, and Spiller could open things up more for them in the passing game. Evans COULD become a reliable pass catcher Edwards turns to and trusts.

BUT, history doesn't support this optimism. I am completely torn on it. I have no idea how it will shake out for Evans and Edwards.

Just curious if anyone has put any thought into it. Do you expect same boom or bust style or do you think it might actually be a year for Evans to come around a bit?

 
I'm in the same boat as you. It's hard to hold onto him, especially after last year and his horrible production. However, Trent is healthy again and he isn't THAT old. I think he can do 1000 yards and 6-7 TDs this year if his QB situation remains stable. He is the #1 and TO last year also cut into his production. This year will make or break it however. Deeper leagues can hold onto him as a buy week guy...with Rice out and Lance Moore cutting into my boy Meachems catches, my WR core is a bit thin so Lee is getting the start this week. Hoping for 500 yards and 600 TDs.

 
I trust them to the extent that I think Trent Edwards is an acceptable backup QB and Lee Evans should justify his redraft ADP. I wouldn't say I trust them enough to feel great about writing either name down every week though.

You're right that Evans is saddled with a bad team, but by his very nature Evans is a boom or bust player even if that weren't true. Watch the routes he runs and the targets he gets. He just isn't going to become a 10/120 guy. You just have to hope that he gets his big games in predictable weeks where he's in your lineup and the bills offense improves to the point where his bad games are acceptable 4/50 instead of disasters like 1/18.

 
Do I trust them? No. Do I think that there's at least reason for SOME optimism? Yes.

Last year, the offensive line had a ridiculous number of injuries. If they can stay healthy, they can at least be a mediocre line instead of the abysmal one they were last year. Trent Edwards is actually a decent QB when he has time to setup and throw. He's one of the worst on the run. Also, Lee Evans' strong suit is running deep patterns. Edwards still isn't a major downfield passer, but he's shown some willingness to actually do so this preseason.

And the biggest difference is adding Chan Gailey. Gailey actually understands how to run a true NFL offense and call plays. The offensive gameplans and playcalling have been horrendous for years. I think that not only will Gailey open up the offense, but that he is instilling huge amounts of confidence in Edwards and other guys on this team.

 
Lee Evans is fantasy cancer.

The only purpose he serves is guaranteeing you waste a roster spot on mediocre production, that could potentially have housed a player with some upside.

You're better off stashing Toby Gerhart or something.

 
cheese said:
I trust them to the extent that I think Trent Edwards is an acceptable backup QB and Lee Evans should justify his redraft ADP. I wouldn't say I trust them enough to feel great about writing either name down every week though.

You're right that Evans is saddled with a bad team, but by his very nature Evans is a boom or bust player even if that weren't true. Watch the routes he runs and the targets he gets. He just isn't going to become a 10/120 guy. You just have to hope that he gets his big games in predictable weeks where he's in your lineup and the bills offense improves to the point where his bad games are acceptable 4/50 instead of disasters like 1/18.
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On the bolded part. I am not a Bills fan who can say he watches every game, but from what I read and the few I have seen I don't believe this. I think he is just misused. If he were a Eagle or Steeler I do not think you'd have this perception. It's part of my point. He has been made to be this player, but I think he is capable of much more and it could come together this year...
GroveDiesel said:
Do I trust them? No. Do I think that there's at least reason for SOME optimism? Yes.

Last year, the offensive line had a ridiculous number of injuries. If they can stay healthy, they can at least be a mediocre line instead of the abysmal one they were last year. Trent Edwards is actually a decent QB when he has time to setup and throw. He's one of the worst on the run. Also, Lee Evans' strong suit is running deep patterns. Edwards still isn't a major downfield passer, but he's shown some willingness to actually do so this preseason.

And the biggest difference is adding Chan Gailey. Gailey actually understands how to run a true NFL offense and call plays. The offensive gameplans and playcalling have been horrendous for years. I think that not only will Gailey open up the offense, but that he is instilling huge amounts of confidence in Edwards and other guys on this team.
Click to expand...
Bolded is what I am getting at above... I think there is the potential to see a different Lee Evans this year. I just can't bring myself to get excited yet.
 
Edwards looks a lot better in Gailey's system than he has the past 2 years. I still think he's a bit shell-shocked from that concussion he got in Arizona courtesy of an Adrian Wilson hit. Edwards has been gunshy ever since & has been reluctant to throw downfield under pressure, earning him nicknames like Captain Checkdown & Trentative. Jauron & old QB coach Alex Van Pelt were horrible & only stunted Edwards' growth more. It looks like Gailey is bringing out his best, but I'll wait to see how he responds after the first big hit before I say he's fixed. A few things to note:

1) The Buffalo O-line is good at run blocking, but horrible at pass blocking. Edwards will get hit a ton. If he responds by reverting to "trentative mode", he'll probably get the hook for good. Fitzpatrick & Brohm aren't any better...

2) Buffalo knows their strength/weakness & will probably run close to 60% of the time, possibly more than any other team. Even if Edwards completes 65%, his numbers will be very limited by the scheme.

3) This is Edwards' last shot. If he flops, the Bills draft a franchise QB next year & Edwards will be lucky to get a back-up spot somewhere else. That motivation has to mean something.

4) Evans will lead Buffalo in catches & TDs, but his ceiling is limited by the scheme. I think 65 for 1050 & 8 TDs is within reach if Edwards is "back".

 
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Got him in the 15th. He was there and is the #1 guy on his team. So I just said, why not? Nothing to lose really at that point.

 
So, I wound up with Evans this year, as he just kept staring me in the face round after round until I broke down and drafted him. Reluctantly. He just wasn't a guy I wanted on my team, although I hadn't really dug into his situation for 2010. Here's what I have found, as mentioned in some of the posts above:

QB Play - No change. Still Trentative <--love this.

RB Play - Improved. The added dimension that Spiller will bring should open up some of the more intermediate routes for Evans, and the overall depth at the position could mean more complexity for defenses to pay attention to.

WR Play - Addition by subtraction. In some cases, having two WR threats helps, sometimes it hurts. Given the limited amount of overall offensive production out of the Bills, I think it helps Evans that Owens is gone. There just weren't enough balls to go around. Evans had his worst statistical performance for FF last year.

Offensive Line Play - Slightly improved, but a lot still to be determined.

Defense - Yet another team to adopt the 3-4, I view the transition to be flat. They will likely come out ahead long-term, but we won't see an uptick this season.

Coaching - Huge improvement. Gailey runs circles around Jauron, especially on offense.

I see nothing that would lead me to believe that Evans will get worse in 2010. To the contrary, there is reason for some very cautious, controlled optimism. Let's take a look at how Evans has finished historically:

2009 - 36th, 103 points

2008 - 27th, 122 points

2007 - 32nd, 115 points

2006 - 7th, 177 points

2005 - 29th, 120 points

2004 - 24th, 147 points

That's an average of 130.7 points including his huge year, and 121.4 points if you remove it as an outlier. Over the course of Evans' career, those averages typically place him at either WR24 (with the huge year) or WR28 (without)...never finishing outside of WR3. That said, I think it's very safe to project WR28 with upside this year. Let's take this further, though, by defining what that range actually means:

WR36, the lowest startable WR3, scored 103 points last year (Evans).

WR28, our safe projection, scored 116 (Nicks, Wallace)

WR24, the lowest startable WR2, scored 129 (MSW)

Exactly thirteen points separates each tier. Less than one point a game.

So, when it comes to Lee Evans, I think you need to be willing to accept the inconsistency that he is known for, knowing that you will have a solid WR3 with WR2 upside at the end of the season. You cannot use him as a bye week filler or match-up/spot starter. You will get burned. He'll hit when he's on your bench, and he'll skunk when you start him. He needs to go in your line-up and stay there. In return, you will have the opportunity to draft guys that have that high upside you're looking for. ADP shows that WR28 is being drafted in the 7th round. Evans is being drafted in the 10th. You just freed up your 7th round and beyond to get guys like Ahmad Bradshaw, Pierre Garcon, Terrell Owens (ironic), Justin Forsett, Jerome Harrison, Eli Manning, Jeremy Maclin, Mike Wallace, Santana Moss, Michael Bush, Malcolm Floyd, Johnny Knox, etc.

"Swinging for the fences" in the mid-rounds is a good thing. It's even better when you know you've got a base hit already.

 
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Happy Ragnarok said:
Lee Evans is fantasy cancer.

The only purpose he serves is guaranteeing you waste a roster spot on mediocre production, that could potentially have housed a player with some upside.

You're better off stashing Toby Gerhart or something.
Click to expand...
:blackdot: The only thing worse than having Evans on your bench is having him in your starting lineup for one of his all-too-common 1/11/0 type games.

 
No. I think Evans is a good player who could have been a consistent scorer on a team like the Eagles or Colts, but he has proven that he's not a reliable NFL WR1 from year to year. He would be much better on a team with a star QB and another above average starting WR. He's not capable of carrying a passing game on his back.

I actually like Edwards more than most people and I think he has been unfairly written off as garbage. He definitely had a disastrous 2009, but he has shown glimmers of competence in the past and I think he has the potential to eventually develop into a Bulger/Pennington/Delhomme/Hasselbeck level QB. Unfortunately, I don't think it will happen in Buffalo. This team is all but guaranteed to finish in last place in its division. When that happens, Edwards will be one of the main scapegoats. I expect him to be driven out of town after this season. If he goes to a team like Arizona or San Francisco in the offseason, he could resurrect his career in a hurry. He does have talent and there's a reason why multiple coaching staffs have felt comfortable with him as their clear cut opening day starter.

 
-jb- said:
So, I wound up with Evans this year, as he just kept staring me in the face round after round until I broke down and drafted him. Reluctantly. He just wasn't a guy I wanted on my team, although I hadn't really dug into his situation for 2010. Here's what I have found, as mentioned in some of the posts above:

QB Play - No change. Still Trentative <--love this.

RB Play - Improved. The added dimension that Spiller will bring should open up some of the more intermediate routes for Evans, and the overall depth at the position could mean more complexity for defenses to pay attention to.

WR Play - Addition by subtraction. In some cases, having two WR threats helps, sometimes it hurts. Given the limited amount of overall offensive production out of the Bills, I think it helps Evans that Owens is gone. There just weren't enough balls to go around. Evans had his worst statistical performance for FF last year.

Offensive Line Play - Slightly improved, but a lot still to be determined.

Defense - Yet another team to adopt the 3-4, I view the transition to be flat. They will likely come out ahead long-term, but we won't see an uptick this season.

Coaching - Huge improvement. Gailey runs circles around Jauron, especially on offense.

I see nothing that would lead me to believe that Evans will get worse in 2010. To the contrary, there is reason for some very cautious, controlled optimism. Let's take a look at how Evans has finished historically:

2009 - 36th, 103 points

2008 - 27th, 122 points

2007 - 32nd, 115 points

2006 - 7th, 177 points

2005 - 29th, 120 points

2004 - 24th, 147 points

That's an average of 130.7 points including his huge year, and 121.4 points if you remove it as an outlier. Over the course of Evans' career, those averages typically place him at either WR24 (with the huge year) or WR28 (without)...never finishing outside of WR3. That said, I think it's very safe to project WR28 with upside this year. Let's take this further, though, by defining what that range actually means:

WR36, the lowest startable WR3, scored 103 points last year (Evans).

WR28, our safe projection, scored 116 (Nicks, Wallace)

WR24, the lowest startable WR2, scored 129 (MSW)

Exactly thirteen points separates each tier. Less than one point a game.

So, when it comes to Lee Evans, I think you need to be willing to accept the inconsistency that he is known for, knowing that you will have a solid WR3 with WR2 upside at the end of the season. You cannot use him as a bye week filler or match-up/spot starter. You will get burned. He'll hit when he's on your bench, and he'll skunk when you start him. He needs to go in your line-up and stay there. In return, you will have the opportunity to draft guys that have that high upside you're looking for. ADP shows that WR28 is being drafted in the 7th round. Evans is being drafted in the 10th. You just freed up your 7th round and beyond to get guys like Ahmad Bradshaw, Pierre Garcon, Terrell Owens (ironic), Justin Forsett, Jerome Harrison, Eli Manning, Jeremy Maclin, Mike Wallace, Santana Moss, Michael Bush, Malcolm Floyd, Johnny Knox, etc.

"Swinging for the fences" in the mid-rounds is a good thing. It's even better when you know you've got a base hit already.
Click to expand...
This is an OUTSTANDING post. Grabbing a guy like Evans in the 10th or later who is guaranteed to give you WR3 or better production thus allowing you to ignore WR for a couple of rounds in the middle and take a shot at huge upside guys is great draft strategy. :shrug: -jb-, great post as usual.

 
Lee Evans was dropped on waivers yesterday, I picked him up today after dropping Laurent Robinson who I had drafted in the 14th round in a 15 round draft. He will probably be a bench warmer for me until an injury changes that.

 
-jb- said:
So, I wound up with Evans this year, as he just kept staring me in the face round after round until I broke down and drafted him. Reluctantly. He just wasn't a guy I wanted on my team, although I hadn't really dug into his situation for 2010. Here's what I have found, as mentioned in some of the posts above:

QB Play - No change. Still Trentative <--love this.

RB Play - Improved. The added dimension that Spiller will bring should open up some of the more intermediate routes for Evans, and the overall depth at the position could mean more complexity for defenses to pay attention to.

WR Play - Addition by subtraction. In some cases, having two WR threats helps, sometimes it hurts. Given the limited amount of overall offensive production out of the Bills, I think it helps Evans that Owens is gone. There just weren't enough balls to go around. Evans had his worst statistical performance for FF last year.

Offensive Line Play - Slightly improved, but a lot still to be determined.

Defense - Yet another team to adopt the 3-4, I view the transition to be flat. They will likely come out ahead long-term, but we won't see an uptick this season.

Coaching - Huge improvement. Gailey runs circles around Jauron, especially on offense.

I see nothing that would lead me to believe that Evans will get worse in 2010. To the contrary, there is reason for some very cautious, controlled optimism. Let's take a look at how Evans has finished historically:

2009 - 36th, 103 points

2008 - 27th, 122 points

2007 - 32nd, 115 points

2006 - 7th, 177 points

2005 - 29th, 120 points

2004 - 24th, 147 points

That's an average of 130.7 points including his huge year, and 121.4 points if you remove it as an outlier. Over the course of Evans' career, those averages typically place him at either WR24 (with the huge year) or WR28 (without)...never finishing outside of WR3. That said, I think it's very safe to project WR28 with upside this year. Let's take this further, though, by defining what that range actually means:

WR36, the lowest startable WR3, scored 103 points last year (Evans).

WR28, our safe projection, scored 116 (Nicks, Wallace)

WR24, the lowest startable WR2, scored 129 (MSW)

Exactly thirteen points separates each tier. Less than one point a game.

So, when it comes to Lee Evans, I think you need to be willing to accept the inconsistency that he is known for, knowing that you will have a solid WR3 with WR2 upside at the end of the season. You cannot use him as a bye week filler or match-up/spot starter. You will get burned. He'll hit when he's on your bench, and he'll skunk when you start him. He needs to go in your line-up and stay there. In return, you will have the opportunity to draft guys that have that high upside you're looking for. ADP shows that WR28 is being drafted in the 7th round. Evans is being drafted in the 10th. You just freed up your 7th round and beyond to get guys like Ahmad Bradshaw, Pierre Garcon, Terrell Owens (ironic), Justin Forsett, Jerome Harrison, Eli Manning, Jeremy Maclin, Mike Wallace, Santana Moss, Michael Bush, Malcolm Floyd, Johnny Knox, etc.

"Swinging for the fences" in the mid-rounds is a good thing. It's even better when you know you've got a base hit already.
Click to expand...
Awesome post. Love some of the actual intelligent insight I can find on the boards. Keep it up.
 
Grahamburn said:
Top 20 rankings for Lee Evans this week from FBGs. Is anyone starting him with confidence?
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I haven't start him with CONFIDENCE in years. That being said, he is GOOD value depending on your scoring system and which of your WRs he is. WR1, no. Wr2, weak, WR3 good. WR4, awesome and start with confidence.
 
Yup, jb's post was on point. If you wait on Evans and get him late he is value because he will finish the season as he always does, a solid WR3. He will remain maddenly inconsistant. You have to start him every week, or you will miss those games he blows up in.

I think Evans is a great WR 3 if a roster has one of the studs, a top five WR and another 1b to 2a WR. Evans fell in many of my leagues. He fit into my roster nicely in two of those leagues. For instance, I would pass on him as a bye week WR because of the inconsistancy and go with a less risky but more reliably scoring more consistant WR. I know that sounds like something of a contradiction, but Evans defies matchups, it's his history. What looks like a favorable matchup is often a FF desert for Evans. Then, when you least expect him to go off... that's when he'll put up big numbers on a good pass defense. You have to start him every week as a WR3.

 
Rovers said:
Yup, jb's post was on point. If you wait on Evans and get him late he is value because he will finish the season as he always does, a solid WR3. He will remain maddenly inconsistant. You have to start him every week, or you will miss those games he blows up in. I think Evans is a great WR 3 if a roster has one of the studs, a top five WR and another 1b to 2a WR. Evans fell in many of my leagues. He fit into my roster nicely in two of those leagues. For instance, I would pass on him as a bye week WR because of the inconsistancy and go with a less risky but more reliably scoring more consistant WR. I know that sounds like something of a contradiction, but Evans defies matchups, it's his history. What looks like a favorable matchup is often a FF desert for Evans. Then, when you least expect him to go off... that's when he'll put up big numbers on a good pass defense. You have to start him every week as a WR3.
Click to expand...
Today is a prefect example of a fairly appealing start - at home vs. an average Dolphins D he get 4/34. Next week he'll be playing at GB and probably get 5/100/1. Maddening.
 
Evans not only had no catches yesterday, but he had zero TARGETS. Zero. In a game they were way behind.

:thumbdown:

I wish Buffalo would just trade him and let him be an effective #2 WR somewhere.

 
Raider Nation said:
Evans not only had no catches yesterday, but he had zero TARGETS. Zero. In a game they were way behind.

:popcorn:

I wish Buffalo would just trade him and let him be an effective #2 WR somewhere.
Click to expand...
They did throw one deep ball to him which resulted in a PI call. Gailey claims there were more plays that were called for Evans but that throw was the only one which went his way. They need to jettison Edwards in the worst way.
 
Raider Nation said:
Evans not only had no catches yesterday, but he had zero TARGETS. Zero. In a game they were way behind.

:confused:

I wish Buffalo would just trade him and let him be an effective #2 WR somewhere.
Click to expand...
:crazy: I didn't see the game. I'm guessing Woodson was on him all game with safety help? Evans will probably catch two 50+ yard TDs this week.

 
Seems like this happens every single year with Lee Evans. Sure, he'll have one or two monster games to make his end of the year stats look ok, but week to week this is not a guy you want in your lineup. In that offense he is going to be terribly inconsistent.

 
Was going to post this as a new topic, but didn't think it was worthy of it...

per Patrick Moran, publisher of Buffalo Sports Daily:

Chan Gailey has announced that Ryan Fitzpatrick is the new starter.

 
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