laughinboy_2000
Footballguy
Guys, Dodds has outdone his self this time. Just got finished reading this article. In my opinion, this may be his best one of the year. Kudos to Dodds. THIS is the reason I subscribe to FBG! 
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Dodds' "From the Gut" article (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter laughinboy_2000
- Start date
BassNBrew
Footballguy
Liked the RB portion, thought the QB section wasn't particularily helpful.Guys, Dodds has outdone his self this time. Just got finished reading this article. In my opinion, this may be his best one of the year. Kudos to Dodds. THIS is the reason I subscribe to FBG!
PatriotJohn
Footballguy
I agree....very good read.
laughinboy_2000
Footballguy
I wonder if Dodds is going to give us his "Gut Feeling" for some WRs or TEs this year? 
salmonstud
Footballguy
Agreed...very good read.
Rounders
Footballguy
If you notice the article is part 1, so I would say yes. I went back and looked at this article last year and it was very cool to see what gut feelings he hit on and which ones he missed.I wonder if Dodds is going to give us his "Gut Feeling" for some WRs or TEs this year?
inca911
Footballguy
Link (subscriber content requires logon):
http://subscribers.footballguys.com/2007/0..._fromthegut.php
Dodds:
It's "tailor-made" as is "made by a professional tailor resulting in a perfect fit".
http://subscribers.footballguys.com/2007/0..._fromthegut.php
Dodds:
It's "tailor-made" as is "made by a professional tailor resulting in a perfect fit".
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lawrence phillips
Footballguy
I agree, this was a great read. I can't wait to read the WR part.
As a side, I would love to see Jene Bramel, John Norton or even Dodds do this for IDP.
As a side, I would love to see Jene Bramel, John Norton or even Dodds do this for IDP.
Tommy Collins
Footballguy
I like it... but I definitely don't agree with Maroney being called 'average'
Lambert
Footballguy
Guys, Dodds has outdone his self this time. Just got finished reading this article. In my opinion, this may be his best one of the year. Kudos to Dodds. THIS is the reason I subscribe to FBG!
Absolutely! I can't wait for Dodds' next one for WRs & TEs ... and I'd also love to see some of the other FBG experts give us similar insights on their draft plans. 
agree that it is a good read but it is one guy's opinion. I rmember thinking the same last year and some of the 'gut feels' being so far off it wasn't funny. Hopefully he doesn't puke this year
Does anyone have last year's article??
Not picking on you David but I think there are way too many that follow blindly on this site. (and I bank on it in my draft)
Does anyone have last year's article??
Not picking on you David but I think there are way too many that follow blindly on this site. (and I bank on it in my draft)
Rebirtha
Footballguy
PumpusX
Footballguy
Taking a look at "From the Gut '06" linked above, looks like he was spot on with many gut feelings. Only Troy Williamson and Culpepper really stand out as busted "hunches".agree that it is a good read but it is one guy's opinion. I rmember thinking the same last year and some of the 'gut feels' being so far off it wasn't funny. Hopefully he doesn't puke this yearDoes anyone have last year's article??Not picking on you David but I think there are way too many that follow blindly on this site. (and I bank on it in my draft)
And the Chicago Bears DT.Taking a look at "From the Gut '06" linked above, looks like he was spot on with many gut feelings. Only Troy Williamson and Culpepper really stand out as busted "hunches".agree that it is a good read but it is one guy's opinion. I rmember thinking the same last year and some of the 'gut feels' being so far off it wasn't funny. Hopefully he doesn't puke this yearDoes anyone have last year's article??Not picking on you David but I think there are way too many that follow blindly on this site. (and I bank on it in my draft)
Dirty Weasel
Footballguy
David,
Please chime in and explain why your projections for Tatum Bell don't reflect your projections for him. Both your article and your projections were posted today, but I don't see them matching up. Thanx.
Please chime in and explain why your projections for Tatum Bell don't reflect your projections for him. Both your article and your projections were posted today, but I don't see them matching up. Thanx.
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Insoxicated
Wow. Nail on the head in many cases..... batted about .750 or so and made some pretty key calls.
phthalatemagic
Footballguy
It's alumnUS
BassNBrew
Footballguy
Huh???
tribecalledjeff
Footballguy
There are certainly more hits than misses, and I think that's fairly obvious if you read through the entire article. Not sure why you feel the need to list the misses that you posted here. I was extremely impressed reading through the article in retrospect.
BassNBrew
Footballguy
I thought the QB section was mostly a miss (1 for 7 to start which means the next 20 picks had to be money for a 75% hit rate) and the RB section very solid. Strangely enough that's what I thought about this year's version. Following last year's advice about QBs was basically season ending in deep leagues.
tommyGunZ
Footballguy
Agreed. As always, it's important to see what we can learn from this.Obviously Dodds is one the better FF analysts out there, so the fact that he could whiff on so many QBs means that we should probably place additional value on those QBs who are unquestionably reliable (Manning, Palmer, Brady, Bulger, and McNabb).
I think the "wait on QBs" line of thinking has become so popular that the "shark move" is to actually lock up a top QB early so that you don't get Aaron Brooks'ed.
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Evilhomer3k
Footballguy
I think Warner/Bledsoe were, at the least, a draw if not a win. If you grabbed Warner/Leinart or Bledsoe/Romo, you probably did pretty good. I had Bledsoe/Romo and they finished 6th in my league (1 point behind #5, Vick). Warner/Leinart was a popular combo in a couple of leagues I was in. At the start of the season, you knew Warner and Bledsoe were not in the most stable situation and, hopefully, drafted accordingly. Brooks was high on a lot of cheatsheets last year which was a huge blown call. Luckily, I had Favre as a backup in the league I got Brooks in (also had Green but that didn't pan out due to injury - hard to say how it would have gone, though).
BigSteelThrill
Footballguy
No way. Romo and Leinart were targeted seperatley from Warner and Bledsoe. Thats a big fat miss.Actually those were among the toughest and most expensive handcuffs to try and secure.Im not knocking his article(s), but to try and make that excuse is just wrong.
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AnonymousBob
Footballguy
Dodds,
Is it okay if we cut and paste the '06 version?
Is it okay if we cut and paste the '06 version?
Evilhomer3k
Footballguy
Who would go after Warner without going after Leinart? That would not be a smart move. I can see someone targeting Leinart but not grabbing Warner but not the other way around.
BigSteelThrill
Footballguy
I went after Leinart and Romo all year last year (as did many others) with no thought or want of Warner or Bledsoe.
You do NOT get Leinart or Romo from picking the other two slouches. Big fat miss.
Same for Billy Volek/Kerry Collins/Vince Young.
You do NOT get Leinart or Romo from picking the other two slouches. Big fat miss.
Same for Billy Volek/Kerry Collins/Vince Young.
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tribecalledjeff
Footballguy
Where do you get 1 of 7 from? In that quote Kitna (qb6 last year) and Favre(qb8 last year) are hits. I'm not sure which one of those you weren't counting? So are Manning, Palmer, Brady, and McNabb (in terms of ppg, and you can't hold injury against Dodds). Sure, everyone had those guys ranked highly, but that doesn't mean that he doesn't get credit for them.Volek (Collins) and Bledsoe are misses, but he identified the situation correctly at least, as the guys that stepped in for them were huge. Green got hurt, you can't hold that against him. And he was wrong on Brooks and Warner. By my count that's 6 for 10. Include the 9 of the next 11, and that's 15 for 21. That's pretty darn near 75%, which was never my claim in the first place.
Plus, the concept behind his statement - wait on QBs - was accurate, as there was quite a bit of value both in the draft and throughout the year aside from the top 4 QBs.
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BigSteelThrill
Footballguy
The top 4 he wasnt promoting beyond saying they were top 4.In fact he told people to wait on QB, thus not taking those guys.
Volek (Collins) and Bledsoe are misses, but he identified the situation correctly at least, as the guys that stepped in for them were huge. Green got hurt, you can't hold that against him. And he was wrong on Brooks and Warner. By my count that's 6 for 10. Include the 9 of the next 11, and that's 15 for 21. That's pretty darn near 75%, which was never my claim in the first place.
Plus, the concept behind his statement - wait on QBs - was accurate, as there was quite a bit of value both in the draft and throughout the year aside from the top 4 QBs.
Kitna and Favre are solid hits. With 4 misses + the Green injury.
CalBear
Footballguy
What's the difference between a brownnose and a ####head?Depth perception."Don't take a QB early, instead take one of this list of QBs, most of which were monumental busts" is a bad call. Period. No big deal, everyone makes bad calls, but it's ridiculous to call the QB section of that article anything but wrong.
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BigSteelThrill
Footballguy
And for the record... I think Dodds "gut feeling" is very good.
I dont mean his article, I mean his actual feeling based upon his (fantasy) football acumen.
While the final finite output may be wrong (and right also), his general understanding and theory is very lucid indeed.
Its a worthy chunk of info to use when making your own decisions and allowing him to influence your thinking, however small or big.
This is also a perfect example of why FBGs doesnt need the risk of keeping old info for review. Nit picking.
He was 50/50 on the RBs and 30/70 on the QBs... but the truth is what he wrote was quite solid.
Yet people can always tear something down, especially when they dont offer much up themselves.
And it may prove to be a very poor business decisions because of the way it can be twisted.
I dont mean his article, I mean his actual feeling based upon his (fantasy) football acumen.
While the final finite output may be wrong (and right also), his general understanding and theory is very lucid indeed.
Its a worthy chunk of info to use when making your own decisions and allowing him to influence your thinking, however small or big.
This is also a perfect example of why FBGs doesnt need the risk of keeping old info for review. Nit picking.
He was 50/50 on the RBs and 30/70 on the QBs... but the truth is what he wrote was quite solid.
Yet people can always tear something down, especially when they dont offer much up themselves.
And it may prove to be a very poor business decisions because of the way it can be twisted.
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David Dodds
Administrator
Thanks for the love. I am about 60% through Part 2 (The WRs and TEs) and that article should hit the site sometime Wednesday at the latest (possibly Tuesday, but have a lot of other stuff that is taking priority this second).
I did whiff pretty bad at QB last year, but in almost every league was able to secure Young, Leinart, Romo after the fact. Of course I did not predict that in the preseason, but it's the reason I stand behind my grab a QB late each year. Someone asked if they can post last year's subscriber content and the answer is of course (We open up all old subscriber content so everything from old years is actually free).
My better calls from the 2006 article:
- I know it's just the preseason, but Jay Cutler looks like a better QB than Jake Plummer already.
- I have this strange feeling that Michael Vick is going to show us about the potential we have been talking about for some time now. Without Duckett to score from inside the 3 yard line, I can see Vick scoring a lot of goal line TDs. If he runs for 600 yards and scores 6 TDs running, he can post below-average passing stats and still be among the top fantasy quarterbacks.
- I am calling it now. Eli Manning is going to disappoint everyone who drafts him.
- Do you get the feeling that McNabb is extremely motivated to show the world how good he is? I had that feeling after the Rush Limbaugh debacle too and he did just that. He seems like he is on a mission this year to reclaim this team and push the TO discussions into the distant past. I wouldn't bet against him.
- I think Ben Roethlisberger regresses this year. Maybe it's the accident. Maybe it's the fact that this team needs little from Ben to be competitive. Possibly it's because Hines Ward is nursing a hamdtring still. Willie Parker looks poised to have a big year. Ben won't be benched, but when the season ends I think his stats will be way below expectations.
- Fantasy football is as much about opportunity as it is about skill. No one has more opportunity than Jon Kitna this season. Detroit now has Mike Martz (previous Rams HC) as its Offensive Coordinator. I expect the Lions to throw a lot this season. Jon Kitna should represent outstanding value near his ADP of 134.
- I have a horrible feeling about Byron Leftwich this year. Until someone at WR shows me they are capable of big plays like Jimmy Smith was, I am not buying into Leftwich's prospects this season.
- Willie Parker looks poised to have a big year. I expect Duce Staley to be cut which opens the door for Parker to also do the goal line work. Verron Haynes will be in the mix for a few carries, but I think the Steelers are looking to give the ball to Parker a lot this year.
- I was onboard the Clinton Portis bandwagon prior to the shoulder injury. Now that he is dinged up though, I think he is being drafted too high in most leagues. The coach has said he is OK and will start the opener, but I remain skeptical that we will see an all-out Portis this year. At an ADP of 10, Portis has too many question marks for him to be on any of my teams.
- Edgerrin James may be a great runner, but he looks bad running behind a weak offensive line this preseason. At his current ADP of 6, he offers virtually no upside and plenty of downside. Let someone else take James. I think he is the early favorite to be a first-round bust.
- It's too bad we all couldn't get Frank Gore before the Barlow trade. His value continues to increase, but I believe it is warranted. With Barlow gone, Gore should get a lot of carries and receptions this year. Even with an ADP of 45, he represents great value this year despite playing for a bad San Francisco team.
- Everyone knows that I am a huge Reggie Bush homer. But at his current ADP (20), he is a risky pick. I think he will have some HUGE games, but he might disappear in others. I expect him to play better in the last half of the season as he settles into his many roles with this team. My advice is to not draft Bush and look to trade for him after his first sub-par game.
- Vernon Davis' combine scores shows he is an incredible athlete. But rookie TEs rarely contribute out of the gate. At his current ADP of 118, I feel Vernon Davis represents all downside. Let someone else grab this guy this season.
- It took just one preseason game to show me why Donald Driver is going to have a great year. I expect the Green Bay Packers to be playing catch-up football in the second half of a lot of games. And when forced to throw, Brett Favre is going to look to the one person he knows he can trust in this offense - Donald Driver. I won't be shocked to see his name among the WR leaders all season long. At his current ADP of 40, he represnts an anchor at the WR position for a fraction of what the other elite WRs cost.
- It was hard not to notice how good TJ was with Carson Palmer throwing him the ball in the third preseason game. Chad Johnson will get the defenses best defensive back every week. TJ Houshmanzadeh, against softer coverage, will likely be the more open receiver nearly every play. Don't be surprised when he actually outperforms the more vocal Chad Johnson on some Sundays. He represents solid value with an ADP of 52.
- I have a weird vibe coming out of Pittsburgh this season. I expect the team to be good, but struggle in the passing game. Most of my worries center around Ben Roethlisberger not appearing sharp. Add to that a Hines Ward who has been nursing a sore hamstring all preseason and things might get ugly.
- I think people are over-reacting to the news that Donte Stallworth is no longer a Saint. Joe Horn is rising up draft boards since he is the only real option at WR for New Orleans. But with Stallworth's departure, Horn now will always see the double-team and the better defensive backs each week. At his age, I am not sure that will lead to a great season. I will be interested to see how this plays out, but I suspect someone else emerges from the Saints and that Horn just puts up modest stats.
I did whiff pretty bad at QB last year, but in almost every league was able to secure Young, Leinart, Romo after the fact. Of course I did not predict that in the preseason, but it's the reason I stand behind my grab a QB late each year. Someone asked if they can post last year's subscriber content and the answer is of course (We open up all old subscriber content so everything from old years is actually free).
My better calls from the 2006 article:
- I know it's just the preseason, but Jay Cutler looks like a better QB than Jake Plummer already.
- I have this strange feeling that Michael Vick is going to show us about the potential we have been talking about for some time now. Without Duckett to score from inside the 3 yard line, I can see Vick scoring a lot of goal line TDs. If he runs for 600 yards and scores 6 TDs running, he can post below-average passing stats and still be among the top fantasy quarterbacks.
- I am calling it now. Eli Manning is going to disappoint everyone who drafts him.
- Do you get the feeling that McNabb is extremely motivated to show the world how good he is? I had that feeling after the Rush Limbaugh debacle too and he did just that. He seems like he is on a mission this year to reclaim this team and push the TO discussions into the distant past. I wouldn't bet against him.
- I think Ben Roethlisberger regresses this year. Maybe it's the accident. Maybe it's the fact that this team needs little from Ben to be competitive. Possibly it's because Hines Ward is nursing a hamdtring still. Willie Parker looks poised to have a big year. Ben won't be benched, but when the season ends I think his stats will be way below expectations.
- Fantasy football is as much about opportunity as it is about skill. No one has more opportunity than Jon Kitna this season. Detroit now has Mike Martz (previous Rams HC) as its Offensive Coordinator. I expect the Lions to throw a lot this season. Jon Kitna should represent outstanding value near his ADP of 134.
- I have a horrible feeling about Byron Leftwich this year. Until someone at WR shows me they are capable of big plays like Jimmy Smith was, I am not buying into Leftwich's prospects this season.
- Willie Parker looks poised to have a big year. I expect Duce Staley to be cut which opens the door for Parker to also do the goal line work. Verron Haynes will be in the mix for a few carries, but I think the Steelers are looking to give the ball to Parker a lot this year.
- I was onboard the Clinton Portis bandwagon prior to the shoulder injury. Now that he is dinged up though, I think he is being drafted too high in most leagues. The coach has said he is OK and will start the opener, but I remain skeptical that we will see an all-out Portis this year. At an ADP of 10, Portis has too many question marks for him to be on any of my teams.
- Edgerrin James may be a great runner, but he looks bad running behind a weak offensive line this preseason. At his current ADP of 6, he offers virtually no upside and plenty of downside. Let someone else take James. I think he is the early favorite to be a first-round bust.
- It's too bad we all couldn't get Frank Gore before the Barlow trade. His value continues to increase, but I believe it is warranted. With Barlow gone, Gore should get a lot of carries and receptions this year. Even with an ADP of 45, he represents great value this year despite playing for a bad San Francisco team.
- Everyone knows that I am a huge Reggie Bush homer. But at his current ADP (20), he is a risky pick. I think he will have some HUGE games, but he might disappear in others. I expect him to play better in the last half of the season as he settles into his many roles with this team. My advice is to not draft Bush and look to trade for him after his first sub-par game.
- Vernon Davis' combine scores shows he is an incredible athlete. But rookie TEs rarely contribute out of the gate. At his current ADP of 118, I feel Vernon Davis represents all downside. Let someone else grab this guy this season.
- It took just one preseason game to show me why Donald Driver is going to have a great year. I expect the Green Bay Packers to be playing catch-up football in the second half of a lot of games. And when forced to throw, Brett Favre is going to look to the one person he knows he can trust in this offense - Donald Driver. I won't be shocked to see his name among the WR leaders all season long. At his current ADP of 40, he represnts an anchor at the WR position for a fraction of what the other elite WRs cost.
- It was hard not to notice how good TJ was with Carson Palmer throwing him the ball in the third preseason game. Chad Johnson will get the defenses best defensive back every week. TJ Houshmanzadeh, against softer coverage, will likely be the more open receiver nearly every play. Don't be surprised when he actually outperforms the more vocal Chad Johnson on some Sundays. He represents solid value with an ADP of 52.
- I have a weird vibe coming out of Pittsburgh this season. I expect the team to be good, but struggle in the passing game. Most of my worries center around Ben Roethlisberger not appearing sharp. Add to that a Hines Ward who has been nursing a sore hamstring all preseason and things might get ugly.
- I think people are over-reacting to the news that Donte Stallworth is no longer a Saint. Joe Horn is rising up draft boards since he is the only real option at WR for New Orleans. But with Stallworth's departure, Horn now will always see the double-team and the better defensive backs each week. At his age, I am not sure that will lead to a great season. I will be interested to see how this plays out, but I suspect someone else emerges from the Saints and that Horn just puts up modest stats.
tommyGunZ
Footballguy
So did I. I saw a lot of the same things you saw last summer and I ended up with Aaron Brooks on several teams along with Kurt Warner, which cost me the playoffs in those leagues.Never again. The wait-on-QBs theory has gone too far to the other extreme, IMO.
BassNBrew
Footballguy
8 QB Favre,Brett GB 16 613 343 3885 18 18 24 28 1 5 257.4
9 QB Rivers,Philip SD 16 460 284 3387 22 9 47 53 0 2 254.1
10 QB Roethlisberger,Ben PIT 15 470 281 3528 18 23 32 98 2 2 247.4
11 QB Young,Vince TEN 15 356 184 2199 12 13 82 553 7 3 242.9
12 QB Manning,Eli NYG 16 522 301 3244 24 18 25 21 0 2 242.7
Just some perspective as we head into this year. Not sure if you'd define these as hits or misses, but essentailly these five finished within a ppg. Big Ben didn't really regress and made huge strides forward fantasy wise. I think we remember his real live output over his fantasy output.
9 QB Rivers,Philip SD 16 460 284 3387 22 9 47 53 0 2 254.1
10 QB Roethlisberger,Ben PIT 15 470 281 3528 18 23 32 98 2 2 247.4
11 QB Young,Vince TEN 15 356 184 2199 12 13 82 553 7 3 242.9
12 QB Manning,Eli NYG 16 522 301 3244 24 18 25 21 0 2 242.7
Just some perspective as we head into this year. Not sure if you'd define these as hits or misses, but essentailly these five finished within a ppg. Big Ben didn't really regress and made huge strides forward fantasy wise. I think we remember his real live output over his fantasy output.
tribecalledjeff
Footballguy
Did you even read the rest of the article? He went on to discuss 11 QBs in depth. He nailed 9 of them. You act like the article stopped after the first paragraph. Brownnose? What would I have to gain by "sucking up" to Dodds? About a month ago, I analyzed one of his drafts and agreed with very few of his picks. But hey, if you have to criticize people and cuss them out on a message board to make yourself feel better, go for it GB.
