Dodds QB rankings Brady #17... (1 Viewer)

[kencav]

Am I missing something here or is this way off base. I have Brady and Kitna for my first rd playoff game and this is making me seriously paranoid about my start of Brady...

If Brady were only cleaning up against the likes of Detroit that would be one thing but he has beaten up on the Steelers and Jets as well..

Brady at #17 and Kitna at #5- is this the way we see it going down?

Opinions...please!

 

[Anarchy99]

Last I checked the weather, it's supposed to be a blizzard with 2 inches of snow falling per hour during the game.

 

[rizzler]

opinion: make your own decisions

 

[Christo]

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...&p=12669846

 

[DoubleG]

I'm sure Dodds didn't realize you needed Brady to have a good week. PM him...I'm sure he'll change his ranking.

 

[Wet Doggg]

I'm sure Dodds didn't realize you needed Brady to have a good week. PM him...I'm sure he'll change his ranking.

This...

 

[kencav]

I'm sure Dodds didn't realize you needed Brady to have a good week. PM him...I'm sure he'll change his ranking.

Pretty sarcastic answers-looking for some constructive thoughts herePS- If you always made your own decisions you would not need a forum-thanks for the help!

 

[rizzler]

PS- If you always made your own decisions you would not need a forum-thanks for the help!

or go to the Assistant Coach Forum

 

[kencav]

I'm sure Dodds didn't realize you needed Brady to have a good week. PM him...I'm sure he'll change his ranking.

Pretty sarcastic answers-looking for some constructive thoughts herePS- If you always made your own decisions you would not need a forum-thanks for the help!

Actually I believe MANY people need Brady to have a good week and pay money like me and look to this website for guidance and a rationale for rankingsI believe this was his initial ranking as well before bsomeone mentioning the "blizzard of 2010" occuring in CHI.

 

[[icon]]

I'm sure Dodds didn't realize you needed Brady to have a good week. PM him...I'm sure he'll change his ranking.

Pretty sarcastic answers-looking for some constructive thoughts herePS- If you always made your own decisions you would not need a forum-thanks for the help!

You've already received answers. People are making jokes because this is also stuff you should know yourself:1) Pay attention to the Weather:

It's going to be borderline blizzard conditions out there. That's not conducive to a good passing game.

2) Pay attention to the Stats :

The Bears have allowed the second fewest passing TDs in the NFL (8 in 12 games). They also have the 2nd lowest QB Rating allowed thus far this season (71.1).

Brady is a somewhat risky start this week.

 

[kencav]

PS- If you always made your own decisions you would not need a forum-thanks for the help!

or go to the Assistant Coach Forum

If I posted in the wrong forum I apologize but this is questoning rankings and rationale- placing arguably the current top FF QB at #17 for the week....

 

[ScoobyDoo]

 

[[icon]]

I believe this was his initial ranking as well before bsomeone mentioning the "blizzard of 2010" occuring in CHI.

The weather has been discussed here since Tuesday (coincidentally the same day Dodds releases his initial rankings). THis isn't something that just surfaced.

 

[[icon]]

At the risk of exposing subscriber content

YARDAGE:

Bears Average: 215

Brady Projected: 249

TOUCHDOWNS:

Bears Average: 0.6

Brady Projected: 1.4

INTERCEPTIONS:

Bears Average: 1.3

Brady Projected: 0.9

So Brady is projected to basically equal his season average (252) in yardage, more than double the number of TDs that are typically thrown vs the Bears... and less of a chance of an INT than usual vs the Bears.... in a serious snowstorm... and you're mad?

What exactly would you be expecting vs this opponent and in those conditions?

 

[Concept Coop]

At the risk of exposing subscriber contentYARDAGE:Bears Average: 215Brady Projected: 249TOUCHDOWNS: Bears Average: 0.6Brady Projected: 1.4INTERCEPTIONS:Bears Average: 1.3Brady Projected: 0.9So Brady is projected to basically equal his season average (252) in yardage, more than double the number of TDs that are typically thrown vs the Bears... and less of a chance of an INT than usual vs the Bears.... in a serious snowstorm... and you're mad? What exactly would you be expecting vs this opponent and in those conditions?

 

[videoguy505]

Am I missing something here or is this way off base. I have Brady and Kitna for my first rd playoff game and this is making me seriously paranoid about my start of Brady...If Brady were only cleaning up against the likes of Detroit that would be one thing but he has beaten up on the Steelers and Jets as well..Brady at #17 and Kitna at #5- is this the way we see it going down? Opinions...please!

My opinion is you're not looking at it right.Brady at #17 is projected to score 0.6 points less than #12. He's projected to score 1.9 points less than #5. There's only one projected touchdown difference between #17 and #1. Projections are best thought of as "averages", there's a certain +/- to those numbers at play. It's not like there's a crystal ball in Dodds' closet.

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

He won't finish 17 or worse on the week, Pm me for a bet if you do.

17 is low, he'll likely move up closer to game time.

 

[Cawbird]

Besides the potential snowfall, I also heard wind gusts up to 40mph possible as well. If it's just the snow, I don't think it would affect his throwing. Just remember what he did to Tennessee last year in the snow.

 

[Anarchy99]

Besides the potential snowfall, I also heard wind gusts up to 40mph possible as well. If it's just the snow, I don't think it would affect his throwing. Just remember what he did to Tennessee last year in the snow.

There's light snow . . . and then there are blizzards. Not all forms of snow are considered equal.

 

[The_Wolfman]

Besides the potential snowfall, I also heard wind gusts up to 40mph possible as well. If it's just the snow, I don't think it would affect his throwing. Just remember what he did to Tennessee last year in the snow.

Forget the percipitation, the wind is all that matters here. Soldier Field is right by Lake Michigan and the design of the stadium has been known to create some swirling wind gusts down on the field. If the reports about 40mph wind come true I'd be hesistant to start Brady.

 

[Go deep]

Even the best QB's arent going to put up QB1 numbers every week. If there is a week to not have Brady as a QB1, i would say in Chicago during a blizzard is as good as any.

 

[Pats Mule]

IIRC, doesn't Brady put up good numbers in snow games?

Edit: found one so far http://www.boston.com/sports/football/patr..._titans/?page=3

 

[boubucarow]

Besides the potential snowfall, I also heard wind gusts up to 40mph possible as well. If it's just the snow, I don't think it would affect his throwing. Just remember what he did to Tennessee last year in the snow.

Forget the percipitation, the wind is all that matters here. Soldier Field is right by Lake Michigan and the design of the stadium has been known to create some swirling wind gusts down on the field. If the reports about 40mph wind come true I'd be hesistant to start Brady.

I was at the 49ers game a few years ago when Vasher returned that FG 108 yards. Winds gusts were in the 40 MPH range and passes, kicks, and punts could be blown sideways at any time.

 

[DoubleG]

Besides the potential snowfall, I also heard wind gusts up to 40mph possible as well. If it's just the snow, I don't think it would affect his throwing. Just remember what he did to Tennessee last year in the snow.

Forget the percipitation, the wind is all that matters here. Soldier Field is right by Lake Michigan and the design of the stadium has been known to create some swirling wind gusts down on the field. If the reports about 40mph wind come true I'd be hesistant to start Brady.

I was at the 49ers game a few years ago when Vasher returned that FG 108 yards. Winds gusts were in the 40 MPH range and passes, kicks, and punts could be blown sideways at any time.

Me too...member that time when Vasher ran that kick back...member? That was awesome.

 

[videoguy505]

He won't finish 17 or worse on the week, Pm me for a bet if you do.

17 is low, he'll likely move up closer to game time.

Numerical ranking is completely 100% irrelevant and shouldn't enter into anyone's considerations of who to start.

Projected points matter, and the tier he's in is the second one. Unless you think he's going to be the top-scoring QB of the week, that's the tier he belongs in. What rank number is in front of that is meaningless.

Sure, "17" sounds low. But he can move from 17 to 5 by completing one more pass than projected. He moves from #17 to top-10 if you league doesn't use decimals. That's what happens when everyone is in one big bunch.

 

[tonydead]

Am I missing something here or is this way off base. I have Brady and Kitna for my first rd playoff game and this is making me seriously paranoid about my start of Brady...If Brady were only cleaning up against the likes of Detroit that would be one thing but he has beaten up on the Steelers and Jets as well..Brady at #17 and Kitna at #5- is this the way we see it going down? Opinions...please!

You are right to question this. Don't listen to the FBG fanboys. Always start your studs. Kitna's only a fill-in.Brady #7Kitna #22

 

[Go deep]

Am I missing something here or is this way off base. I have Brady and Kitna for my first rd playoff game and this is making me seriously paranoid about my start of Brady...

If Brady were only cleaning up against the likes of Detroit that would be one thing but he has beaten up on the Steelers and Jets as well..

Brady at #17 and Kitna at #5- is this the way we see it going down?

Opinions...please!

You are right to question this. Don't listen to the FBG fanboys. Always start your studs. Kitna's only a fill-in.Brady #7

Kitna #22

I have a different theory, "always start the player you think will get the most points that week".

 

[footballnerd]

Am I missing something here or is this way off base. I have Brady and Kitna for my first rd playoff game and this is making me seriously paranoid about my start of Brady...If Brady were only cleaning up against the likes of Detroit that would be one thing but he has beaten up on the Steelers and Jets as well..Brady at #17 and Kitna at #5- is this the way we see it going down? Opinions...please!

You are right to question this. Don't listen to the FBG fanboys. Always start your studs. Kitna's only a fill-in.Brady #7Kitna #22

Kitna is also playing at home in a dome vs a team that let Cutler throw for 4TDs.....just saying.

 

[kutta]

Am I missing something here or is this way off base. I have Brady and Kitna for my first rd playoff game and this is making me seriously paranoid about my start of Brady...

If Brady were only cleaning up against the likes of Detroit that would be one thing but he has beaten up on the Steelers and Jets as well..

Brady at #17 and Kitna at #5- is this the way we see it going down?

Opinions...please!

You are right to question this. Don't listen to the FBG fanboys. Always start your studs. Kitna's only a fill-in.Brady #7

Kitna #22

I have a different theory, "always start the player you think will get the most points that week".

But what if you don't know who will get the most points that week?

 

[Breesisdaman]

I would only start RB's and Defenses in that Bears/NE game. That is going to be an offensive disaster with that weather.

 

[benm3218]

Brady threw for 5 TD's against the Titans in the snow....

 

[kutta]

Not sure why the OP is getting bashed in here for asking about rankings. Aren't we supposed to discuss rankings and players in this forum? I don't see anything wrong with him seeing Brady way down the QB rankings and asking for clarification and discussion.

 

[kencav]

Am I missing something here or is this way off base. I have Brady and Kitna for my first rd playoff game and this is making me seriously paranoid about my start of Brady...If Brady were only cleaning up against the likes of Detroit that would be one thing but he has beaten up on the Steelers and Jets as well..Brady at #17 and Kitna at #5- is this the way we see it going down? Opinions...please!

You are right to question this. Don't listen to the FBG fanboys. Always start your studs. Kitna's only a fill-in.Brady #7Kitna #22

Thanks for the opinion without the vitriol/sarcasmIf high winds are confimed then I would agree totally with his ranking as well as Cutler at #15If its just snow then I would think Brady has played in that before...and exelled.

 

[kencav]

Am I missing something here or is this way off base. I have Brady and Kitna for my first rd playoff game and this is making me seriously paranoid about my start of Brady...If Brady were only cleaning up against the likes of Detroit that would be one thing but he has beaten up on the Steelers and Jets as well..Brady at #17 and Kitna at #5- is this the way we see it going down? Opinions...please!

You are right to question this. Don't listen to the FBG fanboys. Always start your studs. Kitna's only a fill-in.Brady #7Kitna #22

Thanks for the opinion without the vitriol/sarcasmIf high winds are confimed then I would agree totally with his ranking as well as Cutler at #15If its just snow then I would think Brady has played in that before...and exelled.

 

[TheChairman]

Stope being rationale!!! My guyz iz ranked lo!!@!!

 

[pheagles]

Even the best QB's arent going to put up QB1 numbers every week. If there is a week to not have Brady as a QB1, i would say in Chicago during a blizzard on a short week after a huge win against your biggest rival is as good as any.

fixed

 

[kencav]

I'm sure Dodds didn't realize you needed Brady to have a good week. PM him...I'm sure he'll change his ranking.

Thanks wise ###- didnt PM him but Mr Dodds obviously shared my concern...Brady now at #7, Kitna now at #14Did the weather report just get updated to sunny low 60's with 5 mph north easterly winds?Thank you to Mr Dodds for the update- sorry for the disclosure but it was pertinant to this "discussion"Thanks to the bashers- will be hopefully evaluating your posts with a bit more patience and understanding.

 

[videoguy505]

I'm sure Dodds didn't realize you needed Brady to have a good week. PM him...I'm sure he'll change his ranking.

Thanks wise ###- didnt PM him but Mr Dodds obviously shared my concern...Brady now at #7, Kitna now at #14Did the weather report just get updated to sunny low 60's with 5 mph north easterly winds?Thank you to Mr Dodds for the update- sorry for the disclosure but it was pertinant to this "discussion"Thanks to the bashers- will be hopefully evaluating your posts with a bit more patience and understanding.

You're still obsessing over numerical rankings. Brady's projection went up by 1.3 points. Big deal Kitna's went down by like 0.8 OMG!!!

 

[TheChairman]

Great, now Kitna's 14. He was a lock to start for me. Now I'm not so sure.

 

[kencav]

I'm sure Dodds didn't realize you needed Brady to have a good week. PM him...I'm sure he'll change his ranking.

Thanks wise ###- didnt PM him but Mr Dodds obviously shared my concern...Brady now at #7, Kitna now at #14Did the weather report just get updated to sunny low 60's with 5 mph north easterly winds?Thank you to Mr Dodds for the update- sorry for the disclosure but it was pertinant to this "discussion"Thanks to the bashers- will be hopefully evaluating your posts with a bit more patience and understanding.

You're still obsessing over numerical rankings. Brady's projection went up by 1.3 points. Big deal Kitna's went down by like 0.8 OMG!!!

So we justify rankings when they support 1 position but not the other?Well I guess FBG can eliminate rankings from their repitiore- thx guy!

 

[radballs]

I'm sure Dodds didn't realize you needed Brady to have a good week. PM him...I'm sure he'll change his ranking.

Thanks wise ###- didnt PM him but Mr Dodds obviously shared my concern...Brady now at #7, Kitna now at #14Did the weather report just get updated to sunny low 60's with 5 mph north easterly winds?Thank you to Mr Dodds for the update- sorry for the disclosure but it was pertinant to this "discussion"Thanks to the bashers- will be hopefully evaluating your posts with a bit more patience and understanding.

Hi Ken,Brady and Kitna are only separated by one projected point (that's 20 passing yards). There's only a 1.8 point projection difference between the number 4 and 16 QB. Take it all with a grain of salt, make your own decision, and try to acknowledge that this isn't a perfect science. GL

 

[shortbow]

Besides the potential snowfall, I also heard wind gusts up to 40mph possible as well. If it's just the snow, I don't think it would affect his throwing. Just remember what he did to Tennessee last year in the snow.

It was pretty windy monday.

 

[videoguy505]

I'm sure Dodds didn't realize you needed Brady to have a good week. PM him...I'm sure he'll change his ranking.

Thanks wise ###- didnt PM him but Mr Dodds obviously shared my concern...Brady now at #7, Kitna now at #14Did the weather report just get updated to sunny low 60's with 5 mph north easterly winds?Thank you to Mr Dodds for the update- sorry for the disclosure but it was pertinant to this "discussion"Thanks to the bashers- will be hopefully evaluating your posts with a bit more patience and understanding.

You're still obsessing over numerical rankings. Brady's projection went up by 1.3 points. Big deal Kitna's went down by like 0.8 OMG!!!

So we justify rankings when they support 1 position but not the other?Well I guess FBG can eliminate rankings from their repitiore- thx guy!

I've never tried to justify rankings. I've said, in this thread, they are 100% worthless to look at. All the sharks agree. Sorry nube.

 

[boubucarow]

Besides the potential snowfall, I also heard wind gusts up to 40mph possible as well. If it's just the snow, I don't think it would affect his throwing. Just remember what he did to Tennessee last year in the snow.

It was pretty windy monday.

No doubt the short NE passing game can handle some wind. But if the wind gusts reach near 40 MPH on a consistent basis, any pass is a gust away from a silly looking incompletion. The Bears v 49ers game a few years ago had such winds. The teams combined for 9 completions and 95 yards that day. Granted, it was Cody Pickett versus Kyle Orton but the winds were ridiculous. Every FG was a wind gust away from not even reaching the end zone. The wind could be blowing in, out, or sideways at any given time.Most likely, those winds don't happen but the forecast is currently for 22 MPH winds so there is the chance.

 

[Saint]

Not sure why the OP is getting bashed in here for asking about rankings. Aren't we supposed to discuss rankings and players in this forum? I don't see anything wrong with him seeing Brady way down the QB rankings and asking for clarification and discussion.

Spot on. I have no issues with folks questioning rankings. That's what this forum is supposed to be about. Ton of garbage posts that add no value in this thread, which is unfortunate.

I think the OP understands that the weather was the primary concern in the ranking. The other factor for the Eagles D, is that with Cutler throwing 4 TDs on the defense, keep in mind the Eagles did not have Asante Samuel in the backfield. That made a huge difference. I think the Cowboys game will be a shootout, but if Asante is playing I would notch Kitna down a few. In addition, Brady isn't much of a deep passer in recent games, most of his TDs are coming YAC from 10-15 yd pass plays.

I still think Brady will carve up the Bears as I personally believe NE is playing great football right now. In addition, snow and weather is familiar to Brady unlike many of the deep south QBs...

Edit to add: Looks like Asante Samuel will be back in the secondary this week for the Birds. Roto Link

 

[Velvet Revolver]

too bad a simple question is met with such attitude -

Do we have any weather men out there? Curious to know if winds/blizzards have ever changed course or started later than predicted?

In a key playoff game its very hard to sit one of the hottest Qb's in the league because of a weather forecast that may or may not be 100% accurate.

The Bears D is good but so was the jets. Personally I would rather go down with my stud Qb than have starters remorse if I started a Qb#2 in Brady's place and lost.

 

[David Dodds]

I will chime in here and repeat what I have said many times before.

My first projections are almost entirely math-based. They look at situations and attempt to predict the game based on known variables. This week Brady has a tough situation and Kitna has an easy one. Clearly though the talent level between these two players is night and day. That's where the second-pass projections come in. I analyze a lot of these "anomaly" rankings much more indepth. I see if a case can be made where talent crushed the situation, etc. This is clearly one of those times.

In the perfect world, I would never release numbers on Tuesday. I know they have holes in them and it's the reason so many sites all publish info way after ours are live. On Tuesday, I usually don't have a very clear picture of whether players will even play that week as concussion testing, etc is all later than that. But we also understand you want early numbers. So we give you something, but it's in flux through the week.

Man to man, Brady's projection could still slide if the weather turns nasty. He has a tough situation so despite his talent level, he could easily have a down day.

 

[kencav]

I'm sure Dodds didn't realize you needed Brady to have a good week. PM him...I'm sure he'll change his ranking.

Thanks wise ###- didnt PM him but Mr Dodds obviously shared my concern...Brady now at #7, Kitna now at #14Did the weather report just get updated to sunny low 60's with 5 mph north easterly winds?Thank you to Mr Dodds for the update- sorry for the disclosure but it was pertinant to this "discussion"Thanks to the bashers- will be hopefully evaluating your posts with a bit more patience and understanding.

You're still obsessing over numerical rankings. Brady's projection went up by 1.3 points. Big deal Kitna's went down by like 0.8 OMG!!!

So we justify rankings when they support 1 position but not the other?Well I guess FBG can eliminate rankings from their repitiore- thx guy!

I've never tried to justify rankings. I've said, in this thread, they are 100% worthless to look at. All the sharks agree. Sorry nube.

Been playing FF for 17 years- easy on the assumptionsInternet bravery-its a wonderful thing...

 

[ROBOPUNTER]

OP: Why pay money for bad advice then complain about it? #### the advice.

 

[kencav]

OP: Why pay money for bad advice then complain about it? #### the advice.

I was asking for clarification from the expert I pay money to - and tried to elicit friendly conversation from the forum on a rather reasonable ?- I found the ranking somewhat unconventional.Is that ok?