David Yudkin
Footballguy
IIRC, Manning went in the 1st and Gates in the 2nd or 3rd in every league I was in last year.
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Does anyone here still advocate taking a TE early? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Gatorman
- Start date
Tau837
Footballguy
Same here.
bostonfred
Footballguy
How many teams? That seems strange to me, but you guys play with a lot of VBDphiles. According to this, on 9/4, Gates' ADP was 3.4 in a 12 team league, and Manning's was 2.4. Dodds did pretty well on this one, btw.
http://subscribers.footballguys.com/2006/06top200.php
Gates' value has almost certainly dropped this year. I have a feeling he'll be available later than he was last year. And according to the expert rankings, Manning's an early second rounder.
http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/v...amp;howrecent=7
AnonymousBob
Footballguy
This has been one of the best threads I've ever read. Great job bostonfred and SSOG.
einstein2u
Footballguy
manning will be a first round pick in most drafts..imo. gates can be had in the third.so you will have to go manning/rb/gates.....and i just might.
LHUCKS
Footballguy
Too much risk at RB and WR...regardless of what VBD says.
Tau837
Footballguy
Most of my leagues have 14 teams... which means Manning and Gates will tend to be pulled forward in comparison to their round selection in 12 team drafts. And most of my leagues include a mix of smart owners and average owners... which tends to mean Manning is drafted higher because QBs are overvalued in general.
AnonymousBob
Footballguy
Logic be damned, I'm going to go with my hunches.
BassNBrew
Footballguy
Just don't lose my mailing address gb as your funds are always welcome at casa de bass.
Might work in a league with large rosters -- you could draft a whole bunch of late-round RBs and WRs and see if you can hit a diamond in the rough. Go with no backups at QB/TE and you'll get some extra chances while everyone else drafts a QB2, TE2, QB3, etc.
SSOG
Moderator
The only part of this post that I object to is the exclusion of the terms "blowhards" and/or "windbags" from the concluding sentence. Outside of that minor language issue, I am willing to accept this proposed resolution.
Unless you're in a no-trade league, the solution to that problem is ALWAYS two-for-one player swaps. Trade two tier-2 guys for one tier-1 guy. These are great trades because they are almost always mutually beneficial (which will foster positive trading relationship for the future- win/win trades benefit your team more than win/lose trades because in both trades you win, but only the first kind of trade makes people want to continue trading with you in the future). Anyway, dealing depth for starters especially makes a lot of sense as the playoffs approach, when injury risks decrease (simply because there are fewer games left- a player is more likely to get hurt with 10 games remaining than he is with 5 games remaining) and when trade bait reaches its peak value.Also, for the record, I believe the proper spelling of the word is "suxxor", or possibly "suxx0r" if you're 13. In addition, the correct form to pair with singular nouns is "suxxorz", not "suxxors" as some people seem to believe.
Hmmm... I never really thought of it that way before. Thanks LHUCKS, you've totally changed my outlook on this manner!
LHUCKS
Footballguy
Logic be damned, I'm going to go with my hunches.
Sleeper 43
Footballguy
The fantasy game evolves. In 04 gates came out of no where. In 05 those who took Gates in the 3rd , in ppr (te mandatory) he got almost 60 more fantasy points than the next best TE. Even in 06 he was still "the best te" just the point diff between 1 and 2 were not far off. Regardless though the track record has shown as of now Gates is in a league of his own for consistency, young age, and production. Everyone knows the chargers WR1 is Gates and the only other guy you can really say that about in Tony G who is past his prime and is far less of a sure thing year in and year out at THIS point. The rest or the TE bunch even elites (Shockey Heap Winslow Crumpler) all have questions.It's not too late to have a hunch about Bulger and Witten. Be sure to say "Championship" when you draft them.Logic be damned, I'm going to go with my hunches.
bostonfred
Footballguy
bump for 2008. Lots of interesting stuff in this thread, I'm going to print it out and reread it later.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
I didnt re-read all 5 pages but taking a TE early is flawed unless they get 2ppr and everyone else get 1ppr.
Dont be the guy that grabs witten early this year. He was the value play LAST year.
Be the guy that takes the value play late at TE THIS YEAR, like LJ Smith or Scheffler for example
Dont be the guy that grabs witten early this year. He was the value play LAST year.
Be the guy that takes the value play late at TE THIS YEAR, like LJ Smith or Scheffler for example
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kylechoffman
Footballguy
Totally agree - My recent Zealot Inaugural draft I waited until the 13th round to grab a TE - Scheffler. 31st round, took Pope, EJ in round 41 and Scaife in 45. Redraft, Keeper, Auction - totally different but I still agree that unless TEs get a lot more ppr, its not worth it to reach.
David Yudkin
Footballguy
I'm going to ask what LJ Smith has ever done to even think that he is on par with Witten. His best scoring season in 0 PPR leagues was 91 points. Witten scored 157 last year. I'm not as keen on Sheffler as others, but he at least has potential while we already know what to expect from Smith. The other think with Smith is that both he and McNabb need to be healthy for him to be productive, and that hasn't happen much in recent years. I'm not saying he's a bad player, but he's not a difference maker at the fantasy TE spot.And I don't totally agree with the part about Witten being overvalued this year. I recently took him in a draft in the 5th round. I understand that last year was last year, but his scoring total (157 points) was 30-40 points higher than the WRs left on the board (over 20 WRs were already taken). IMO, at that point it was a great value to take Witten (Gates went in the 3rd and Winslow in the 4th).bicycle_seat_sniffer said:
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
I agree with ya Dave I was just pointing out that witten was going at what TE7 - TE 9 last year and provided tremedous value.I was just pointing out two people to target. I wouldnt expect Witten like numbers out of either of those players this coming season. I also expect Witten's number to regress some this season. 5th round seems reasonable for Witten to me. 3rd round does not.
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FUBAR
Footballguy
Witten in the 5th, as the 3rd TE taken is good value. IMO, TE is similar to QB. In most formats, there's no reason to take one as high as they're likely to be drafted. I wonder if TEBC has merit?
vincentvega722
Footballguy
Theres not that much discrepancies between Witten and other tight ends. Witten might give you a touchdown and some yards every now and again but he's prone to have average numbers that Heath Miller produces. To me, every round you should draft someone that you need and most of all the player that can give you most points. If there is a receiver or running back that can produce more than Witten, go ahead and take them. I just think you can wait till the 8th-10th round to grab a tight end. IMO, there almost similar to Defense/Special teams since in most leagues you can only start one.
David Yudkin
Footballguy
While anything is possible, I am not sure that TE scoring is something that is easily projectible. I suppose there are stats for everything these days, and some teams may be predisposed to giving up more points to TEs. All I know is that whenever I have had to go to anything by committee, I seem to play the guy that doesn't do much that week and the guy I left on the bench would blow up. Where I did do well in a committee approach was lucking out in that one of them took it to another level and emerged as an every week starter. BUt having to pick a guy each week can be pretty hit or miss.
David Yudkin
Footballguy
Over the past 4 years Witten has averaged 7.6 ppg vs 5.2 for Miller (3 years for Miller). Last year the difference was even greater (9.8 vs 6.1 ppg). If you don't think a 50% difference doesn't matter at TE, then so be it. If you could parlay an advantage somewhere else to offset that 3-4 point difference, then that would work out I suppose, but I'm not sure there is an easy way to calculate what benefits were available in "making up the difference" between TE in the 5th (Witten) vs TE in the 9th (where Miller is getting drafted).
SSOG
Moderator
The problem is that, while there are several other TEs that can perform on the Gates/Witten level... you don't know which ones they are.Let's say that I know that 5 TEs are going to be difference makers this season (seems a bit high, but just for pretend). I could take Gates/Witten/Winslow and get a guy who is 90+% sure to be one of them, or I could grab a Scheffler-type and get a guy who is 25-33% sure to be one of them. Gates isn't worth a high draft pick just because he's so much better than his peers (although in four seasons he has NEVER finished with a VBD below 18th overall across all positions), he's worth such a high draft pick because, outside of Peyton Manning, there's no surer thing in all of fantasy football.To reflect on this thread with a year's worth of hindsight... in hindsight, I think a lot of people are going to say that Witten's success shows that Gates wasn't worth his high cost last season, but I disagree. Gates finished 17th overall in VBD, which means you could have picked him at 2.05 and he would have still justified the selection purely from a point differential standpoint. Sure, you could have wound up with Witten later in the draft... but you just as easily could have wound up with Vernon Davis, Chris Cooley, Ben Watson, or Alge Crumpler (the 4 TEs Dodds had projected immediately before and immediately after Witten). If you wait until late to try to grab the next Jason Witten, you're far more likely to wind up with the next Alge Crumpler, instead. Grab Gates early, instead- his production on the field will more than justify a 3rd round draft pick, and he's got virtually no risk of busting.bicycle_seat_sniffer said:
Gatorman
Supreme Elite Maximum Tier
Since I started this thread last year, and also have a year of hindsight to look into this now, I would say that I am right, but with a Caveat. The guy at the top of the list is pretty much a no brainer in terms of picking for VBD value(and solid decision if you have no idea who else may have a good year at the TE position), however, at a position where there is only one starter, and the ability to find a diamond in the rough, it is a very similar corrallary to taking a QB early. The only difference is that you have a larger pool of "average" QBs to draw from, so the "bust" rate on taking a TE later is a little higher.
Last year I did not take gates. I targeted the second tier which to me was Winslow, Witten, and then Dallas Clark as my next step down. I got pretty lucky in identifying the right guys, and I will stand by my sentiment that getting the #2 guy 2 rounds later is a better VBD argument, because I can get a better player at 3 for another spot without losing too much fantasy value.
It would no be wrong this year to take a RB early, then get manning at 2.09 and Gates at 3.05, but you are going to spend the rest of your draft getting RBs and WRs to fill the void there.
Gator
PS. I think that SSOGs point is valid if you look from a static VBD perspective. From a dynamic perspective (and assuming you will take no less than TE #5 or 6) I think my argument works better.
Last year I did not take gates. I targeted the second tier which to me was Winslow, Witten, and then Dallas Clark as my next step down. I got pretty lucky in identifying the right guys, and I will stand by my sentiment that getting the #2 guy 2 rounds later is a better VBD argument, because I can get a better player at 3 for another spot without losing too much fantasy value.
It would no be wrong this year to take a RB early, then get manning at 2.09 and Gates at 3.05, but you are going to spend the rest of your draft getting RBs and WRs to fill the void there.
Gator
PS. I think that SSOGs point is valid if you look from a static VBD perspective. From a dynamic perspective (and assuming you will take no less than TE #5 or 6) I think my argument works better.
