Does Chris Johnson break the 2000 yd rushing barrier? (1 Viewer)

[Anonymous Internet User]

SEA is allowing an average of 109.5 rushing yards per game on the season but only 80.4 while at home (though those teams were Rams, Bears, Jags, Cards, Lions, 49ers, and Bucs ...)

Tennessee is out of the playoff picture, so the only thing they are playing for is pride. I think they give Chris Johnson every opportunity (ie - 30+ rushing attempts) to break the 2000 yd rushing barrier to join the elite group of Jamal Lewis, Terrell Davis, Barry Sanders, Eric Dickerson, and OJ Simpson.

Is there a bet line on this anywhere?

 

[vikingdave]

Id say almost without a doubt that yes he gets it...Dickerson's mark is even in jeopardy IMO...

 

[Avery]

Id say almost without a doubt that yes he gets it...Dickerson's mark is even in jeopardy IMO...

I think he needs something like 233 yards yards to get to Dickerson. I wouldn't put anything past Chris Johnson but that is quite a hill to climb.

 

[vikingdave]

Id say almost without a doubt that yes he gets it...Dickerson's mark is even in jeopardy IMO...

I think he needs something like 233 yards yards to get to Dickerson. I wouldn't put anything past Chris Johnson but that is quite a hill to climb.

I agree...dont think he will get it, but could see it happening, Seattle is a joke and you've got to think Tennessee's main goal Sunday will be to get CJ the ball alot and see if he can do it...

 

[Avery]

Id say almost without a doubt that yes he gets it...Dickerson's mark is even in jeopardy IMO...

I think he needs something like 233 yards yards to get to Dickerson. I wouldn't put anything past Chris Johnson but that is quite a hill to climb.

I agree...dont think he will get it, but could see it happening, Seattle is a joke and you've got to think Tennessee's main goal Sunday will be to get CJ the ball alot and see if he can do it...

If anyone can do it, Johnson is the homerun type of threat to get it done.

 

[Topes]

I sure hope so.

 

[certificate]

Tennessee has nothing to lose by feeding Johnson the ball as many times as it takes.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Tennessee has nothing to lose by feeding Johnson the ball as many times as it takes.

Well, there are a few things to note.1) A whole bunch of carries, particularly when the defense knows they are coming, has been linked to injuries in both that game (obvious) and in future games (not so obvious). So there's certainly some injury risk. I wouldn't consider it serious, but I think it's out there. And while you might think he has all off-season to rest, some studies have shown a high number of carries in obvious situations at the end of season N is correlated with injuries in season N+1, even after controlling for guys who have lots of carries normally.

2) As far as breaking the record goes, it's stated all the time in the Pool that RBs gain the most yards when defenses don't expect them to run (i.e., the QB is Brett Favre and not someone terrible). I'm not sure if that's true, but to the extent that force-feeding the ball to Johnson makes the Seahawks crowd the LOS, I'm not sure if it's a good idea. He might be better off having them respect the pass, and then run for 60+ yards on a play where Seattle isn't playing the run.

3) A more nefarious reason: whenever the Titans extend Johnson's contract, a 2000 yard season is likely to cost Tennessee more $$. The same goes for their OL, who will request more $$ as OL who blocked for a 2K yard back.

I'm not saying Tennessee shouldn't force-feed Johnson the ball -- if I was the coach I might give him 35 carries -- but I do see reasons the Titans might not want to do so.

 

[JetMaxx]

Id say almost without a doubt that yes he gets it...Dickerson's mark is even in jeopardy IMO...

I think he needs something like 233 yards yards to get to Dickerson. I wouldn't put anything past Chris Johnson but that is quite a hill to climb.

I agree...dont think he will get it, but could see it happening, Seattle is a joke and you've got to think Tennessee's main goal Sunday will be to get CJ the ball alot and see if he can do it...

And you would have to believe that Seattle's main goal will be to stop CJ from getting the milestone. 8 in the box for the entire game, etc. I love CJ and want it to happen but there are two sides to that same argument.

 

[Grimace59]

How far is he away from Marshal Faulk's total yards record?

 

[Avery]

How far is he away from Marshal Faulk's total yards record?

I thought he was like 74 yards away.

 

[tigerz]

think it's a lock but it would be very sad if he didn't get it. he'll probably regret it for a long time especially since he set out to do it early in the season. don't think this kind of opportunity comes around more than once even with his level of talent.

 

[vikingdave]

Id say almost without a doubt that yes he gets it...Dickerson's mark is even in jeopardy IMO...

I think he needs something like 233 yards yards to get to Dickerson. I wouldn't put anything past Chris Johnson but that is quite a hill to climb.

I agree...dont think he will get it, but could see it happening, Seattle is a joke and you've got to think Tennessee's main goal Sunday will be to get CJ the ball alot and see if he can do it...

And you would have to believe that Seattle's main goal will be to stop CJ from getting the milestone. 8 in the box for the entire game, etc. I love CJ and want it to happen but there are two sides to that same argument.

correct...but this is Seattle we are talking about...they are a joke who gaveup 2 months ago...

 

[Arch Stanton]

Drew Bledsoe could get 150 against Seattle.

 

[fasteddie_21]

I think he hits 2k and Faulk's record, but not sure about ED...but it's gonna be fun to watch!

 

[Avery]

I think he hits 2k and Faulk's record, but not sure about ED...but it's gonna be fun to watch!

I'm right there with you.For me now that fantasy football is over for the year for me (Won both my league! ) and the Giants are eliminated it will be nice to have something to root for this week.

 

[travdogg]

I'm think its something like this:

74 yards to break Faulk's record-100% chance

128 rushing yards to top 2,000-90% chance

233 rushing yards to top Dickerson-51% chance

One thing that has to be pointed out is Seattle is probably the worst team in the NFL at the moment. They do nothing well. The only thing that will stop Johnson from topping 128 yards is Tennessee constantly starting around Seattle's 30 yard line.

For what its worth, if Green Bay had felt like it, Ryan Grant could have put up well over 150 yards if he gotten his usual amount of carries.

If I were a betting man, I'd be betting on Chris Johnson being the single season rushing champion.

Not sure what it says about me as a football fan, but Johnson's pursuit of this record interests me more than who wins or loses on Sunday this week.

 

[tigerz]

I'm think its something like this:74 yards to break Faulk's record-100% chance128 rushing yards to top 2,000-90% chance233 rushing yards to top Dickerson-51% chanceOne thing that has to be pointed out is Seattle is probably the worst team in the NFL at the moment. They do nothing well. The only thing that will stop Johnson from topping 128 yards is Tennessee constantly starting around Seattle's 30 yard line. For what its worth, if Green Bay had felt like it, Ryan Grant could have put up well over 150 yards if he gotten his usual amount of carries.If I were a betting man, I'd be betting on Chris Johnson being the single season rushing champion.Not sure what it says about me as a football fan, but Johnson's pursuit of this record interests me more than who wins or loses on Sunday this week.

Not saying I disagree with you, but in my experience, there is no such thing as 100% chance.

 

[Arch Stanton]

Keep him away from booze and a car, strip clubs and piss tests and keep him on time for planes and meetings until Sunday! Not saying he's prone to these things but it would be silly for him to be on the bench for this chance.

 

[FUBAR]

I'm think its something like this:74 yards to break Faulk's record-100% chance128 rushing yards to top 2,000-90% chance233 rushing yards to top Dickerson-51% chanceOne thing that has to be pointed out is Seattle is probably the worst team in the NFL at the moment. They do nothing well. The only thing that will stop Johnson from topping 128 yards is Tennessee constantly starting around Seattle's 30 yard line. For what its worth, if Green Bay had felt like it, Ryan Grant could have put up well over 150 yards if he gotten his usual amount of carries.If I were a betting man, I'd be betting on Chris Johnson being the single season rushing champion.Not sure what it says about me as a football fan, but Johnson's pursuit of this record interests me more than who wins or loses on Sunday this week.

Even I'm not going with 100% on any of this, but 90%, 75%, 30%

 

[FUBAR]

Id say almost without a doubt that yes he gets it...Dickerson's mark is even in jeopardy IMO...

I think he needs something like 233 yards yards to get to Dickerson. I wouldn't put anything past Chris Johnson but that is quite a hill to climb.

I agree...dont think he will get it, but could see it happening, Seattle is a joke and you've got to think Tennessee's main goal Sunday will be to get CJ the ball alot and see if he can do it...

8-8 is the main goal. CJ is the way to do it but they won't be forcing him the ball.

 

[Dragon1952]

And as far as Seattle being a joke, everyone thought Chicago was a joke too.

 

[Aardvarks]

They will give him every opportunity to reach 234, not just 128.

 

[fantasizing]

I'm think its something like this:

74 yards to break Faulk's record-100% chance

128 rushing yards to top 2,000-90% chance

233 rushing yards to top Dickerson-51% chance

One thing that has to be pointed out is Seattle is probably the worst team in the NFL at the moment. They do nothing well. The only thing that will stop Johnson from topping 128 yards is Tennessee constantly starting around Seattle's 30 yard line.

For what its worth, if Green Bay had felt like it, Ryan Grant could have put up well over 150 yards if he gotten his usual amount of carries.

If I were a betting man, I'd be betting on Chris Johnson being the single season rushing champion.

Not sure what it says about me as a football fan, but Johnson's pursuit of this record interests me more than who wins or loses on Sunday this week.

Even I'm not going with 100% on any of this, but 90%, 75%, 30%

Those are much more realistic odds. They are very few things in this world that are 100%.To break Dickerson's record, he'll need probably 2 or 3 very long yardage runs, in addition to maintaining his current average of 5.8 yards per carry.

Say two 50 yard runs. Then another 23 carries at 5.8 ypc gets him to over 233 yards.

Or 41 carries at 5.8 yards per carry to get the record. I severly doubt he will get 40+ carries, or even 30+ carries.

He'll probably get 25 carries, in that range. So to break the record, he'll need 2 or 3 of those carries to be long bombs.

Possible yes, but I wouldn't bet a huge amount of money on it happening. It's not easy to score a 50 yard TD run. Alot of things have to fall into

place from the snap of the ball to the point he does his usual leap in the endzone, and small dance.

 

[editor47]

29 carries, 146 yards, 5 TDs; 3 rec., 19 yards, 1 TD.

those are the numbers the packers trio put up last week. none of those guys are as good as johnson. (though ryan grant is underrated).

i can see johnson really going off ... and let's say they get up 21-0 at the half and johnson has 140. you don't think they are going to do everything they can to get that record? i do.

maybe seahawks fans can weigh in more here, but are they still playing hard?

 

[BlackMagic10]

The only thing Seattle has left to play for is pride, which makes me skyptical he will get those last 128 yards. Personally I hope he gets it though.

 

[Arch Stanton]

The only thing Seattle has left to play for is pride, which makes me skyptical he will get those last 128 yards. Personally I hope he gets it though.

I've only seen a semblance of pride in about 5 or 6 players most if the season. If the Titans set out to run CJ to the record book, I don't see any way they can stop it. The team has obviously given up on the coach, they play sloppy and undisciplined and the Titans pride in reclaiming the season is a bright star compared to the dismal flicker of pride in Seattle.

 

[r0llin_game]

And as far as Seattle being a joke, everyone thought Chicago was a joke too.

yea, but this ain't a primetime game.

 

[editor47]

i am beginning to think nbc should have picked this game as the flex game.

there's a lot of hype over the kid and a lot of people would tune in to watch. as it is, it will probably be shown in 2 markets - seattle and nashville.

 

[Banger]

I'd put CJs chances at...95% (Faulks record), 65% (2000 yds) and 5% (Dickersons record).

 

[FUBAR]

i am beginning to think nbc should have picked this game as the flex game.

there's a lot of hype over the kid and a lot of people would tune in to watch. as it is, it will probably be shown in 2 markets - seattle and nashville.

 

[footballsavvy]

Sometimes its difficult for a running back to maintain the patience they need while running for a record. I'll be interested to see if his timing is off as he tries to force the big one. No matter how bad he wants it, he has to have blockers in front of him.

 

[stbugs]

And as far as Seattle being a joke, everyone thought Chicago was a joke too.

yea, but this ain't a primetime game.

And, as much as Cutler has sucked INT-wise, he has more than enough talent to have a great game. Chicago has been a joke, but Cutler is talented enough to keep them in any game. He just throws enough INTs for them to be able to lose to any team as well.

 

[corpcow]

Tennessee has nothing to lose by feeding Johnson the ball as many times as it takes.

Well, there are a few things to note.2) As far as breaking the record goes, it's stated all the time in the Pool that RBs gain the most yards when defenses don't expect them to run (i.e., the QB is Brett Favre and not someone terrible). I'm not sure if that's true, but to the extent that force-feeding the ball to Johnson makes the Seahawks crowd the LOS, I'm not sure if it's a good idea. He might be better off having them respect the pass, and then run for 60+ yards on a play where Seattle isn't playing the run.

True, but CJ is also the kind of player that can do a lot with a little space....

 

[PinkydaPimp]

bump. its crazy how quietly CJ has been putting up yards this season.

 

[FUBAR]

bump. its crazy how quietly CJ has been putting up yards this season.

crazier that 20+ more people thought he'd break 2,000 than Faulk's record: http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...howtopic=509996

 

[North]

He shatters it, I look for him to have close to 200 with about 4 minutes left in the game.

 

[Sinrman]

He'll get 140 yards...

 

[BigTex]

He's good for at least 1 60+ 2da House.

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

Only way he doesn't get it is if he gets injured for any significant time during the game. He could easily push 200 yards today.

 

[Weapon of Mass Instruction]

8-8 is the main goal. CJ is the way to do it but they won't be forcing him the ball.

I don't agree -- not that the players don't want to win, but the only one that sees 8-8 as crucial is Fisher, just so he can say they didn't have a "losing" season. If the Titans lose to Seattle, they will play the Bills on the road and the Browns at home.If they beat Seattle and either Houston or Jacksonville lose then they'll play either the Jets or Dolphins on the road and either the Ravens or Steelers at home.

Frankly, it would be better to lose while getting CJ the record. Plus a higher draft pick, maybe even by 6-8 slots.No one in the nearly 90-year history of the NFL has ever run for 2000 yards and also had 500 yards receiving. With 128 yards on the ground and 17 yards through the air, Chris Johnson would be the first. And also the first with 2500 total yards from scrimmage. The 2000/500 Club, CJ first and, maybe, only member ever of this club.

He'll get 2,000 and, obviously, Faulk's record. 234 yards to break Dickerson? Wow, that's a lot of yards. He set the franchise single game record earlier this year at 228 or something like that...so 234 is really out there.

He gets it if one of the two happen:

-- He gets a couple of big runs early for TDs, Titans are way up, Titans are shutting SEA down.

-- Fisher focuses on him getting the record, not necessarily on winning the game.

 

[Aardvarks]

My guess is

32 carries, 188 yards, 2 TD

Finishes with 2,060 rushing yards, 3rd all-time behind Dickerson (2105) and Lewis (2066).

4 rec, 30 yards, 0 TD

Finishes with 2,573 total yards, smashing Faulk's record (2429).

 

[trader jake]

No doubt.

 

[Aardvarks]

Fisher loves getting his players individual goals and incentives. Years ago when they were out of the running he let Volek & Bennett light up the skies in order to get them big incentive bonuses. Bennett was so appreciative he bought Fisher's family a trip to Cancun-

 

[Bri]

Id say almost without a doubt that yes he gets it...Dickerson's mark is even in jeopardy IMO...

I think he needs something like 233 yards yards to get to Dickerson. I wouldn't put anything past Chris Johnson but that is quite a hill to climb.

I agree...dont think he will get it, but could see it happening, Seattle is a joke and you've got to think Tennessee's main goal Sunday will be to get CJ the ball alot and see if he can do it...

And you would have to believe that Seattle's main goal will be to stop CJ from getting the milestone. 8 in the box for the entire game, etc. I love CJ and want it to happen but there are two sides to that same argument.

Titans give the ball to Johnson often. The Seahawks aren't coming into this game wondering who CJ is. The Hawks aren't the first team with a game plan focused upon stopping CJ. Young has to hit Nate and Britt so that the Hawks D worries about their breakaway ability. That's usually what opens things up for CJ. It'd be nice to see the Titans use Jared Cook some in this last game. Line him up wide like he's capable of and use his deep speed too.CJ's breakaway ability makes it seem like he could get any yardage total. It just looks so easy when he turns a corner for 60 yards "like that".

 

[[icon]]

i am beginning to think nbc should have picked this game as the flex game. there's a lot of hype over the kid and a lot of people would tune in to watch. as it is, it will probably be shown in 2 markets - seattle and nashville.

It's on in Memphis. If it wasn't, I've got the ticket so would be watching it regardless....

 

[Bri]

3) A more nefarious reason: whenever the Titans extend Johnson's contract, a 2000 yard season is likely to cost Tennessee more $$. The same goes for their OL, who will request more $$ as OL who blocked for a 2K yard back.

Both Ts were signed to contracts and IIRC their Gs are set for a while too.This may be HOFer(?) Mawae's last game. Their Ts were 1st and 2nd team all-pro last year, two awesome bookends. They haven't been as great in 2009(it'd be tough to reach that level for anyone) but they've done very well. 2 great young Ts and a fired up C surely won't hurt CJs chances today.

 

[Aardvarks]

LOL, don't worry, Johnson cost Bud Adams more money weeks ago. Bud knows he has to cough it up whether he hits 2000 or not.

 

[Bri]

Hey Chase-or anyone- have you read any of the uncapped year rules? If a capped year is expected in 2011, do you think teams will renegotiate to pay guys like CJ a ton in 2010 and less after? Think we'll see moves like that this offseason?

 

[WFR]

55 yds to go and an entire 2nd half to do it!

Come on CJ!!!!!

I'm pulling for ya!