Does Eddie Royal have any dynasty value left? (1 Viewer)

[gianmarco]

This is a Michael Clayton-esque fall from grace. Not only is the guy now unstartable but it seems as if he's simply completely not involved in the Denver offense. Games where they're ahead. Games where they're behind. Good Orton games. Bad Orton games. He's simply invisible.

The guy catches 90 balls as a rookie and now he's had 8 games with 21 yds or less including 2 games where he's had nothing. He's caught 3 or fewer balls in all but 3 games. 31/282/0 after 11 games is simply terrible, especially when 10 catches for 90 yds came in 1 games. That's 21/190/0 in 10 other games. Wow.

I know people who own him in dynasty leagues are just holding own hoping that value comes back. I'm truly concerned that it will never happen. It's one thing for a guy to underperform, but it's another thing to simply disappear for such an extended period of time.

Is there ANY sign of hope? If you own him, is it better to just salvage whatever value you can get at this point? I don't even know what to think except I'm glad I own him in only one league.

 

[Kitrick Taylor]

Obviously I was thrilled to have drafted him last year to my dynasty roster. I have no idea what to expect in 2010. I think you can see the talent is still there. 2 return for TDs in one game this year. A 10 catch game. They decided to throw to him vs Pitt in the opening drive, and he made a couple beautiful catches.

Why he's not more involved in the offense, I have no idea. He's clearly unstartable right now, and has no hope to get back into my starting lineup this year.

My feeling is he's a hold for at least another couple of years just based on his rookie year. Unlike Clayton, I don't think he's been exposed with shortcomings in his game. I just think for whatever reason he's not at all featured in McDaniels offense.

 

[Whiplash Inc.]

I guess if you have the roster space you could stash and wait what happens next year.

 

[EBF]

I like him. I think he's a good player. I don't know why they don't use him.

Long term I still expect him to be pretty solid, but there's no telling when he'll turn it around. I don't think it will be soon. McDaniels doesn't seem to value him as a WR.

 

[Steed]

I was seeing this kid go in the 2nd round of dynasty start-ups. Unbelievable fall from grace.

But he's no Michael Clayton. He still can get open and his hands are good, he just isn't getting used. No one seems to know why. Very strange.

 

[mozzy84]

I like him. I think he's a good player. I don't know why they don't use him.

Long term I still expect him to be pretty solid, but there's no telling when he'll turn it around. I don't think it will be soon. McDaniels doesn't seem to value him as a WR.

for the people saying they don't use him, he seems to be out on the field quite a bit anyways, orton could throw it to him if he was actually open he's a total hold, you cant just cut him or trade him for nothing.

 

[gianmarco]

I like him. I think he's a good player. I don't know why they don't use him.

Long term I still expect him to be pretty solid, but there's no telling when he'll turn it around. I don't think it will be soon. McDaniels doesn't seem to value him as a WR.

for the people saying they don't use him, he seems to be out on the field quite a bit anyways, orton could throw it to him if he was actually open he's a total hold, you cant just cut him or trade him for nothing.

Maybe you can get something. How long does he have to continue this until it's time to give up? Again, the fact that there's really no explanation for it is the most troubling. At least if there was SOME reason to pin it on, you could hope it turned around. I have a bad feeling he's going to be a wasted roster space for some teams for a long time until they finally cut bait. What are the chances he turns it around? Even if he does, just how high can he really go?

 

[jwb]

I was seeing this kid go in the 2nd round of dynasty start-ups. Unbelievable fall from grace.But he's no Michael Clayton. He still can get open and his hands are good, he just isn't getting used. No one seems to know why. Very strange.

I actually picked him at 1.12 in a startup (guys kidded me about it, but most admitted he would have indeed been gone in round 2). I picked him there because I truly felt that he was a very safe pick, and someone who'd produce. Ouch.Still holding in that league - may as well. I invested heavily, so I'll go down with the ship with him there rather than move him for a second rounder (which is about all he's worth now.)

 

[EBF]

I would be advocating a "sell low" if I thought there was some reason to believe that his success last season was a fluke, but that's not the case. Royal is a speed/strength freak of nature with very good hands and football instincts. He looked great last season. He doesn't appear to have lost a step. I don't blame Eddie Royal's poor numbers on Eddie Royal. He isn't playing poorly or dropping a ton of passes. For whatever reason they just don't use him on offense.

He's clearly a victim of the coaching change. He was one of Shanny's guys, but Shanny is gone. McDaniels is the new boss and he has his own guys that he favors. Unfortunately, Royal isn't one of those guys. Jabar Gaffney is. McDaniels knows Gaffney from NE. He trusts him more than Royal even though Royal is the more dynamic talent. This isn't a shocker considering that McDaniels was reportedly willing to trade Cutler for Cassel. He clearly feels more comfortable working with familiar personnel.

I think Royal is a lot like Santonio Holmes and I think he can have a similar impact given the opportunity. He played well last year and I think he'll play well again whenever he finally gets another legitimate opportunity to catch passes.

 

[thatguy]

I would be advocating a "sell low" if I thought there was some reason to believe that his success last season was a fluke, but that's not the case. Royal is a speed/strength freak of nature with very good hands and football instincts. He looked great last season. He doesn't appear to have lost a step. I don't blame Eddie Royal's poor numbers on Eddie Royal. He isn't playing poorly or dropping a ton of passes. For whatever reason they just don't use him on offense. He's clearly a victim of the coaching change. He was one of Shanny's guys, but Shanny is gone. McDaniels is the new boss and he has his own guys that he favors. Unfortunately, Royal isn't one of those guys. Jabar Gaffney is. McDaniels knows Gaffney from NE. He trusts him more than Royal even though Royal is the more dynamic talent. This isn't a shocker considering that McDaniels was reportedly willing to trade Cutler for Cassel. He clearly feels more comfortable working with familiar personnel.I think Royal is a lot like Santonio Holmes and I think he can have a similar impact given the opportunity. He played well last year and I think he'll play well again whenever he finally gets another legitimate opportunity to catch passes.

As usual, EBF knows stuff.

 

[SSOG]

he's a total hold, you cant just cut him or trade him for nothing.

I'd give more than nothing for him. Talent wins out in the long run. He's 23 years old. Guys older than that still hold value while struggling (see Meachem, Robert). It's almost as if dynasty owners are actually PUNISHING him for being good last year. If he had sucked last year, people would see this year's production and say "oh, hold him, he's just young and hasn't gotten it yet, he'll still break out", but since he already had a perceived "breakout" last year, owners are totally impatient with his youthful struggles. I can't ever justifying ranking a player lower than I otherwise might have because he was TOO productive last year.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

This is a Michael Clayton-esque fall from grace. Not only is the guy now unstartable but it seems as if he's simply completely not involved in the Denver offense. Games where they're ahead. Games where they're behind. Good Orton games. Bad Orton games. He's simply invisible. The guy catches 90 balls as a rookie and now he's had 8 games with 21 yds or less including 2 games where he's had nothing. He's caught 3 or fewer balls in all but 3 games. 31/282/0 after 11 games is simply terrible, especially when 10 catches for 90 yds came in 1 games. That's 21/190/0 in 10 other games. Wow. I know people who own him in dynasty leagues are just holding own hoping that value comes back. I'm truly concerned that it will never happen. It's one thing for a guy to underperform, but it's another thing to simply disappear for such an extended period of time. Is there ANY sign of hope? If you own him, is it better to just salvage whatever value you can get at this point? I don't even know what to think except I'm glad I own him in only one league.

You do know he was hurt tonight right?I don't feel like digging up an old thread, but there were warning signs to move this guy while you could and sell high before this season. He's a good player with plenty of talent - but his value was way too high last year. Now it's too low.

 

[KellysHeroes]

Many people I play with are in hold mode...Marshall is an FA this off-season. Does Denver re-sign him; maybe? But if they don't then Eddie's value goes way up.

 

[zamboni]

As others have mentioned, it appears to be both the coaching change and the change from Orton to Cutler.

Cutler was clearly much more a gunslinger as part of Shanahan's offense than Orton is with McDaniels. Last year, Cutler threw the ball 616 times, or 39 times a game. This year through 11 games, Orton has thrown the ball 344 times, or just over 31 times a game. A lot fewer throws, and with Orton locking onto Marshall, there are basically crumbs spread out between Royal, Gaffney and Scheffler. Plus, the RBs get their fair share of receptions in the flat.

 

[gianmarco]

1 catch for 3 yds this week. Still not a single TD. He's topped 32 yds only twice all year. There are complete scrubs on worse teams that put up better stats. What on earth is going on?

Since I started this:

Week 12: 0/0/0

Week 13: 2/32/0

Week 14: 1/3/0

 

[ConstruxBoy]

6 or 7 weeks ago I offered a 2010 first (now 1.03) and Earl Bennett for him. Not sure I'd make that trade offer again today, although I do still like his talent.

 

[thevidon]

I have no clue what is going on with Royal in that offense, all I know is that he is really quite talented and talent usually outs in the end. He is worth holding for another year or two at the least.

Anyone else remember the game his rookie season where he pulled a double move that was so devastating the CB covering him fell straight on his ###? Yeah I remember Eddie.....I'll keep you around a while longer.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

Cecil has an interesting theory on Royal - he pointed out many times last year that Royal didn't read coverages well even man vs zone, and he was still kind of winging it. That's ok with Cutler. McDaniels offense is dependant on QB and WR making same read, and maybe Royal just can't do that consistently?

The raw talent is there in spades, and I have very little doubt that Royal will be a 80-1000-6 guy again eventually. It might take a while, maybe even a 2nd team. There is absolutely no reason to sell him at his current value, you'll recoup much less than his actual potential value.

 

[gianmarco]

Cecil has an interesting theory on Royal - he pointed out many times last year that Royal didn't read coverages well even man vs zone, and he was still kind of winging it. That's ok with Cutler. McDaniels offense is dependant on QB and WR making same read, and maybe Royal just can't do that consistently?The raw talent is there in spades, and I have very little doubt that Royal will be a 80-1000-6 guy again eventually. It might take a while, maybe even a 2nd team. There is absolutely no reason to sell him at his current value, you'll recoup much less than his actual potential value.

But here's the question. If that value doesn't come for at least 2-3 years and his upside is WR2, is it really worth keeping him. I mean, at this point, he's really no different in terms of expected returns of any other rookie or 2nd year WR who hasn't shown anything yet. That's how far he's fallen, IMO. He's simply another Devin Thomas or Malcolm Kelly or Andre Caldwell or Jordy Nelson. With how far he's fallen with seemingly no explanation (other than what Cecil submitted above), there is no reason to believe he will approach those #'s again in that current system in the next 1-2 years. The thing is, you can probably get more for him than you can those guys. So I'm not against keeping him, but I don't view him as anything more than those prospects right now no matter what he did as a rookie. And if you can land solid value (i.e. a decent WR3 or late 1st round/early 2nd round pick), it'd be hard for me to pass that up. I just have a feeling this guy is going to burn a roster spot on a lot of teams for a long while until people finally cut bait. Just like Michael Clayton as I mentioned above.

 

[LBH]

i bought this guy in every league that i didnt draft him in. I dont think my expectations for a player have ever been more off than they were this year with Royal. The crazy thing is that in preseason games with the first team offense it was looking like he was going to be a PPR monster then the regular season started...

 

[EBF]

I mean, at this point, he's really no different in terms of expected returns of any other rookie or 2nd year WR who hasn't shown anything yet.

I disagree with that. He has already proven that he's capable of playing at a high level whereas most of those guys haven't. If you didn't have faith in Royal's talent, you should've sold him in the offseason when his value was high. If you do have faith in Royal's talent, there's no reason to move him now because he's better than anyone you could get for him. I've already said my piece on this subject. I think he's a good player suffering through a nightmare season. It happens. I'll be looking to buy rather than sell in the offseason.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

Cecil has an interesting theory on Royal - he pointed out many times last year that Royal didn't read coverages well even man vs zone, and he was still kind of winging it. That's ok with Cutler. McDaniels offense is dependant on QB and WR making same read, and maybe Royal just can't do that consistently?The raw talent is there in spades, and I have very little doubt that Royal will be a 80-1000-6 guy again eventually. It might take a while, maybe even a 2nd team. There is absolutely no reason to sell him at his current value, you'll recoup much less than his actual potential value.

But here's the question. If that value doesn't come for at least 2-3 years and his upside is WR2, is it really worth keeping him. I mean, at this point, he's really no different in terms of expected returns of any other rookie or 2nd year WR who hasn't shown anything yet. That's how far he's fallen, IMO. He's simply another Devin Thomas or Malcolm Kelly or Andre Caldwell or Jordy Nelson. With how far he's fallen with seemingly no explanation (other than what Cecil submitted above), there is no reason to believe he will approach those #'s again in that current system in the next 1-2 years. The thing is, you can probably get more for him than you can those guys. So I'm not against keeping him, but I don't view him as anything more than those prospects right now no matter what he did as a rookie. And if you can land solid value (i.e. a decent WR3 or late 1st round/early 2nd round pick), it'd be hard for me to pass that up. I just have a feeling this guy is going to burn a roster spot on a lot of teams for a long while until people finally cut bait. Just like Michael Clayton as I mentioned above.

Royal has still flashed the speed/quicks that make him elite. Clayton looked like crap his second season.He is not simply another Thomas/Kelly/Caldwell/Nelson, those guys havent proven they can get it done on this level. No way I would deal him for a late first/early 2nd (gotta wait even longer for that player to blossom, with more risk that they are just a dud anyway). As far as decent WR3, youll have to give me a name to really evaluate that value comparison.I would think that based on Royal's consensus perceived value, the right move is to hold/buy right now, not sell.

 

[Kitrick Taylor]

The Stats:

2008 Targets: 8.5/game

2009 Targets: 5.8/game

2009 Rec % 70.5

2009 Rec % 45.3

2008 Rec 69 (through week 14)

2009 Rec 34 (through week 14)

2008 Yards 799 (through week 14)

2009 Yards 317 (through week 14)

2008 YPR 11.6

2009 YPR 9.3

2008 TDs 5 (through week 14)

2009 TDs 0 (through week 14)

Dropped passes?

The most striking difference in the numbers is the drop in Receiving %. In 2008, Royal was third in the NFL among players with 60 or more receptions (32 players). Only Wes Welker (75.8) and Anquan Boldin (70.6) topped Royals' 70.5%.

According to the Washington Post stats site, Royal hasn't dropped one of his 75 targets this year. (They list Marshall with 4 drops).

Targets?

Brandon Marshall is getting 2 fewer targets per game, although his receiving % has gone up from 56% to 65%. Due in large part to his amazing 21 catch perfomance this week, he's on pace for roughly the same number of catches as a year ago.

RBs are catching 3.8x per game now compared to 2.6x in 2008. Ortons' completions go to the RBs over 19% of the time. Compare that to Cutlers' 11%.

Brandon Stokely and Jabar Gaffney are going to have slightly lower numbers than the Stokely and DJax did last year. Just about a wash.

The TEs are on pace for about 1.4 less receptions per game as well. Distinctly lower numbers here.

So how did 2009 Eddie Royal happen? IMO Kyle Orton happened. He's on pace to complete 4.2 fewer passes per game than Cutler. (24 to 19.8). Now take those 19.8 completions per game and take 3.8 away from the WRs' and give it to the RBs. So the WRs and TEs are now splitting 16 receptions on average, whereas that number was 21.4 a year ago.

 

[Doug B]

If he could eventually get back on a Mike-Shanahan coached team ... would that help?

 

[thevidon]

The Stats:

2008 Targets: 8.5/game

2009 Targets: 5.8/game

2009 Rec % 70.5

2009 Rec % 45.3

2008 Rec 69 (through week 14)

2009 Rec 34 (through week 14)

2008 Yards 799 (through week 14)

2009 Yards 317 (through week 14)

2008 YPR 11.6

2009 YPR 9.3

2008 TDs 5 (through week 14)

2009 TDs 0 (through week 14)

Dropped passes?

The most striking difference in the numbers is the drop in Receiving %. In 2008, Royal was third in the NFL among players with 60 or more receptions (32 players). Only Wes Welker (75.8) and Anquan Boldin (70.6) topped Royals' 70.5%.

According to the Washington Post stats site, Royal hasn't dropped one of his 75 targets this year. (They list Marshall with 4 drops).

Targets?

Brandon Marshall is getting 2 fewer targets per game, although his receiving % has gone up from 56% to 65%. Due in large part to his amazing 21 catch perfomance this week, he's on pace for roughly the same number of catches as a year ago.

RBs are catching 3.8x per game now compared to 2.6x in 2008. Ortons' completions go to the RBs over 19% of the time. Compare that to Cutlers' 11%.

Brandon Stokely and Jabar Gaffney are going to have slightly lower numbers than the Stokely and DJax did last year. Just about a wash.

The TEs are on pace for about 1.4 less receptions per game as well. Distinctly lower numbers here.

So how did 2009 Eddie Royal happen? IMO Kyle Orton happened. He's on pace to complete 4.2 fewer passes per game than Cutler. (24 to 19.8). Now take those 19.8 completions per game and take 3.8 away from the WRs' and give it to the RBs. So the WRs and TEs are now splitting 16 receptions on average, whereas that number was 21.4 a year ago.

I think Orton may just be more comfortable winging it up and hoping Marshall comes down with it than trying to work on his timing with a receiver like Royal. If Royal ever got to work with a QB like Manning or Brady I shudder to think what his numbers might look like. Conversely Welkers value would take a massive hit if he came onto a team with Orton at QB. It's just the way quick, route/timing based WRs work.Also great post EBF - summed it up nicely.

 

[Tornacl]

I think he is a guy whose value is going to go up in the off-season, but not because of any objective factors changing. Because of the speculative nature of fantasy football, everyone is always trying to identify the next mega sleeper, because doing so correctly can win you the championship. We also do it because it is fun, and because, whether we like to admit it or not, deep down we all like to say "I told you so." Whatever the reason, I think he will be one of the names most frequently mentioned as a sleeper or a guy that is going to rebound from a disappointing season. As the off-season progresses, the sleepers' values will continue to rise (Earl Bennett and Josh Morgan were good examples this past off-season). It happens every year.

If you have him now and are looking to get rid of him, you'd probably be better waiting on that to happen, otherwise you're not likely to get much more than waiver-wire fodder. If you are looking to acquire him, you're probably better off doing it now (in the event that you don't have a trade deadline) or immediately after the season finishes.

I owned him in two dynasty leagues until a couple of weeks ago (included him in a multi-player deal). In both leagues, there were owners sniffing around and sending out low-ball offers. That tells me that he still has value left, but right now, no one is going to give you what they feel he's worth, they just want to see if you are panicking.

By no means do I think his value this off-season will approach his value last off-season. But I do think that it will go up from where it is now. How couldn't it?

 

[gianmarco]

I think he's a good player suffering through a nightmare season. It happens.

This is where I'm stuck. Does it really happen? I can't think of an example of such a tremendous drop. Nightmare isn't even a good word for it. Do you have any example of "good players" that have had such a terrible year without another factor (i.e. injured) and bounced back to be relevant? I honestly can't think of any or don't know if it's happened so it's a serious question. The guy is WR#96 in ppg in a 1 ppr. NINETY-SIX!!!! 82nd overall. How are there 80-90 WRs producing better than him? He's essentially producing as the worst WR3 on the worst passing team in the league (32 x 3). It's unheard of. I know the talent he showed last year. I know he's proven what other guys haven't. But this is a SERIOUS red flag especially considering he's healthy and Marshall seems to be putting up exceptional #'s in the same system. A system that logically would actually favor Royal.

 

[Ariakis]

Opportunity means a ton but this guy has talent and it's not like he isn't the same player he was he just isn't getting touches. That can change year to year. I don't watch enough Broncos games ... is he getting open or has he lost that ability? From what I've read, they've been using him as a decoy to run clearing routes for Marshall rather than using Royal as a possession WR as per his rookie year. I'd buy/hold.

 

[Scooby1974]

I think he's a good player suffering through a nightmare season. It happens.

This is where I'm stuck. Does it really happen? I can't think of an example of such a tremendous drop. Nightmare isn't even a good word for it. Do you have any example of "good players" that have had such a terrible year without another factor (i.e. injured) and bounced back to be relevant? I honestly can't think of any or don't know if it's happened so it's a serious question. The guy is WR#96 in ppg in a 1 ppr. NINETY-SIX!!!! 82nd overall. How are there 80-90 WRs producing better than him? He's essentially producing as the worst WR3 on the worst passing team in the league (32 x 3). It's unheard of. I know the talent he showed last year. I know he's proven what other guys haven't. But this is a SERIOUS red flag especially considering he's healthy and Marshall seems to be putting up exceptional #'s in the same system. A system that logically would actually favor Royal.

Royal cannot make Orton pass him the ball, Orton has to want to. I've seen a couple Denver games, and it is a constant pass to Marshall. Honestly, when I did see passes to Eddie, they were more like "toward" Eddie. Orton threw everything low or behind him to where he couldn't even get to them. My guess is Eddie's quickness just doesn't jive with Orton's (in)abilities to pass the football. There is simply no way Royal lost "it". The only changes were at QB and in the system. The QB and System does NOT fit Eddie's skill set.Eddie can get open underneath. Orton can't get it to him. Eddie can get open deep, Orton can't throw the ball that far. All Orton does is throw the ball 10-15 yards high in the air to Marshal and he lets Brandon do the RAC thing.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

I think he's a good player suffering through a nightmare season. It happens.

This is where I'm stuck. Does it really happen? I can't think of an example of such a tremendous drop. Nightmare isn't even a good word for it. Do you have any example of "good players" that have had such a terrible year without another factor (i.e. injured) and bounced back to be relevant? I honestly can't think of any or don't know if it's happened so it's a serious question.

How about guys who were out of the league like Benson and Bryant? Plenty of players have reached tremendous heights after dropping lower than Royal has this year.

 

[az_prof]

A 45% completion percentage is horrible. That tells me he isn't getting that open or he isn't getting open quickly enough for this offense. People speculated at the beginning of the year who would be helped and who would be hurt by Orton and the new offense. I think we now know and I doubt Royal does much better until either he plays in a different offense or with a different QB.

 

[gianmarco]

I think he's a good player suffering through a nightmare season. It happens.

This is where I'm stuck. Does it really happen? I can't think of an example of such a tremendous drop. Nightmare isn't even a good word for it. Do you have any example of "good players" that have had such a terrible year without another factor (i.e. injured) and bounced back to be relevant? I honestly can't think of any or don't know if it's happened so it's a serious question. The guy is WR#96 in ppg in a 1 ppr. NINETY-SIX!!!! 82nd overall. How are there 80-90 WRs producing better than him? He's essentially producing as the worst WR3 on the worst passing team in the league (32 x 3). It's unheard of. I know the talent he showed last year. I know he's proven what other guys haven't. But this is a SERIOUS red flag especially considering he's healthy and Marshall seems to be putting up exceptional #'s in the same system. A system that logically would actually favor Royal.

Royal cannot make Orton pass him the ball, Orton has to want to. I've seen a couple Denver games, and it is a constant pass to Marshall. Honestly, when I did see passes to Eddie, they were more like "toward" Eddie. Orton threw everything low or behind him to where he couldn't even get to them. My guess is Eddie's quickness just doesn't jive with Orton's (in)abilities to pass the football. There is simply no way Royal lost "it". The only changes were at QB and in the system. The QB and System does NOT fit Eddie's skill set.Eddie can get open underneath. Orton can't get it to him. Eddie can get open deep, Orton can't throw the ball that far. All Orton does is throw the ball 10-15 yards high in the air to Marshal and he lets Brandon do the RAC thing.

But Orton IS passing him the ball. Not as much as last year, but he already has 75 targets. He's 40th in the league in targets. And these past 3 weeks his targets have gone down even more which may be due to a lack of production. He has the same # of targets as guys like Cotchery, Edwards, Collie, Maclin, Harvin. He's just literally doing NOTHING with them. Only Davone Bess and Bobby Wade are in his area in terms of yds/rec (all in the low 9's). Every other WR in the top 60 in targets is over 10.

 

[Mookie Blaylock]

A 45% completion percentage is horrible. That tells me he isn't getting that open or he isn't getting open quickly enough for this offense. People speculated at the beginning of the year who would be helped and who would be hurt by Orton and the new offense. I think we now know and I doubt Royal does much better until either he plays in a different offense or with a different QB.

Any speculation as to why Denver isn't talking about why Royal is no longer a part of their game plans? Simply gamesmanship?

 

[gianmarco]

I think he's a good player suffering through a nightmare season. It happens.

This is where I'm stuck. Does it really happen? I can't think of an example of such a tremendous drop. Nightmare isn't even a good word for it. Do you have any example of "good players" that have had such a terrible year without another factor (i.e. injured) and bounced back to be relevant? I honestly can't think of any or don't know if it's happened so it's a serious question.

How about guys who were out of the league like Benson and Bryant? Plenty of players have reached tremendous heights after dropping lower than Royal has this year.

Benson is a decent example but he was never THAT bad on the field. Bryant had LOTS of other factors, particularly the knucklehead factor. But I don't remember him ever completely being a non-factor on the field.

 

[footballguy#1]

I think Royal still has upside, simply due to his talent level. Another guy in a similar dilemma this year is Donnie Avery, although for different reasons. I am buying both of these guys this offseason while they can be had relatively cheap.

 

[EBF]

It's a good question.

Going into last season, Chad Ochocinco had averaged about 95 catches and 1300 receiving yards per year over the previous five seasons. He played 13 games in 2008 and finished with 53 catches for 540 yards. A bum shoulder and a bum QB made him look like complete crap.

That's a flawed example because Ochocinco was an established star suffering through injury whereas Royal only had one good season and is apparently completely healthy. Off the top of my head here are some guys who had similar sophomore slumps and ultimately proved to be solid players.

Antonio Bryant

2002 - 44 catches, 733 yards

2003 - 39 catches, 550 yards

Bryant was widely viewed as a breakout candidate after his strong rookie year, but he took a backseat in the offense in 2003 when Terry Glenn was added to the roster. His numbers fell along with his value. At that point it would've been easy to cut bait, but that would've been a mistake. Bryant subsequently logged two 1000+ yard seasons and arguably would've had more if not for his character issues.

Terry Glenn

1996 - 90 catches, 1132 yards

1997 - 27 catches, 431 yards

On paper this looks like perfect parallel with Royal's nosedive, but the numbers are misleading because Glenn only played 9 games in 1996. Even so, his numbers dropped dramatically. He averaged 6 catches and 75 yards per game as a rookie and only 3 catches and 48 yards per game as a sophomore. He subsequently had three seasons of 1000+ receiving yards.

Talent doesn't disappear. Talented players will occasionally perform well below their upside. Sometimes for several years. Joey Galloway had a six year lull in the middle of his career where he never topped 908 receiving yards in a season. Then he landed in a situation that capitalized on his talents and ripped off three consecutive 1000+ yard seasons.

I look at Glenn and Galloway as classic examples of WRs who became victims of circumstance and ultimately rewarded those who were patient with them. I think Royal has a good chance to eventually do the same. Right now he's in a bad situation. His coach doesn't like him. His team doesn't throw much. His QB locks in on one receiver. That receiver is playing at a top 5 level. A lot of factors are working against Eddie Royal. Sooner or later he'll find himself in a more favorable situation. I think he's capable of capitalizing when that happens.

Maybe Eddie Royal is the next Michael Clayton. Maybe he's the next Terry Glenn. Both of these outcomes are possible. I'm inclined towards optimism because my subjective opinion is that his 2008 numbers weren't a fluke. He looked like a fluid, natural receiver last season. He has elite speed and quickness. I think he will be a good player in the league for years to come.

 

[FavreCo]

I'm on the verge of cutting him loose. The one play that stands out for me was against the Redskins. Marshall had already collected 2 huge TD's by burning past the secondary. Here comes Royal's turn. He smokes past them looking to haul in a huge pass for a TD. Orton overthrows him. I'm fairly confident 6-4" Marshall hauls in that pass for a TD. I've seen quite a few other plays where he just couldn't get the ball. I wouldn't say it's Royal as much as the fact that when Cutler threw the ball it was pretty mcuh a bullet on the money to Royal. His wingspan is not even close to Marshall's.

Also 2 weeks ago, there is no way Royal hauls in this pass.

http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-cant-miss-pl...Mile-High-magic

Doubtful he gets this one either.

http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-videos/09000...-vs-Giants-2009

The size difference is hindering Royal with Orton at QB.

 

[Hoss_Cartwright]

Just think of the value this guy had last year compared to now. Wow!!

 

[gianmarco]

It's a good question.

Going into last season, Chad Ochocinco had averaged about 95 catches and 1300 receiving yards per year over the previous five seasons. He played 13 games in 2008 and finished with 53 catches for 540 yards. A bum shoulder and a bum QB made him look like complete crap.

That's a flawed example because Ochocinco was an established star suffering through injury whereas Royal only had one good season and is apparently completely healthy. Off the top of my head here are some guys who had similar sophomore slumps and ultimately proved to be solid players.

Antonio Bryant

2002 - 44 catches, 733 yards

2003 - 39 catches, 550 yards

Bryant was widely viewed as a breakout candidate after his strong rookie year, but he took a backseat in the offense in 2003 when Terry Glenn was added to the roster. His numbers fell along with his value. At that point it would've been easy to cut bait, but that would've been a mistake. Bryant subsequently logged two 1000+ yard seasons and arguably would've had more if not for his character issues.

Terry Glenn

1996 - 90 catches, 1132 yards

1997 - 27 catches, 431 yards

On paper this looks like perfect parallel with Royal's nosedive, but the numbers are misleading because Glenn only played 9 games in 1996. Even so, his numbers dropped dramatically. He averaged 6 catches and 75 yards per game as a rookie and only 3 catches and 48 yards per game as a sophomore. He subsequently had three seasons of 1000+ receiving yards.

Talent doesn't disappear. Talented players will occasionally perform well below their upside. Sometimes for several years. Joey Galloway had a six year lull in the middle of his career where he never topped 908 receiving yards in a season. Then he landed in a situation that capitalized on his talents and ripped off three consecutive 1000+ yard seasons.

I look at Glenn and Galloway as classic examples of WRs who became victims of circumstance and ultimately rewarded those who were patient with them. I think Royal has a good chance to eventually do the same. Right now he's in a bad situation. His coach doesn't like him. His team doesn't throw much. His QB locks in on one receiver. That receiver is playing at a top 5 level. A lot of factors are working against Eddie Royal. Sooner or later he'll find himself in a more favorable situation. I think he's capable of capitalizing when that happens.

Maybe Eddie Royal is the next Michael Clayton. Maybe he's the next Terry Glenn. Both of these outcomes are possible. I'm inclined towards optimism because my subjective opinion is that his 2008 numbers weren't a fluke. He looked like a fluid, natural receiver last season. He has elite speed and quickness. I think he will be a good player in the league for years to come.

Terry Glenn is close, but as you said, he only played in 9 games. Prorate his season out and it's still an acceptable 48/766/3. Not earth-shattering, but acceptable. Royal is going to be lucky to crack 40 catches and 500 yds. He's yet to catch a TD. And, Glenn never ended up to be a world-beater. Royal is a guy that was going in the 2nd round of startup dynasties this year. Is his upside really that high? Antonio Bryant is a pretty close example. But, he didn't produce until his 5th year in the league (i.e. 3 more yrs for Royal). And again, it still wasn't at an exceptional level. It's very possible we need to wait 3 years until Royal gives any return. That's a long time.

I guess my problem is that maybe he ISN'T as talented as we all thought he was. Maybe he overachieved last year instead of underachieved this year. It's possible. I have a very hard time wrapping my head around the fact that a guy supposedly THAT talented is doing so little. His targets are down but they are still enough to do SOMETHING. His YPR is terrible. He has no TDs. He has a monster WR on the other side commanding attention. At this point, there's no way that defenses are keying in on Royal. He should be having single coverage without help and he just isn't doing anything with that. He's catching only 50% of his targets.

I think sometimes that we get stuck on a player having a good season and that being "proof" that he can get it done again. Last year, Lance Moore was the #13 WR and 79/928/10. Is he really that good? I like him, but he's not. In 2007, Bobby Engram caught 94/1147/6. He SIGNIFICANTLY overachieved that year. He's just not that good. In 2006, Mike Furrey had 98/1086/6. Trust me, Mike Furrey isn't that good. These guys overachieved and a big reason for it was due to situation for them. Maybe that's all that Royal did. I know he "looked" the part last year, but maybe he was just a product of the situation last year.

In the end, it's almost unprecedented for a guy touted to be that talented to fail so miserably, even in his 2nd year. This isn't Oakland we're talking about. And Jabar Gaffney is putting up identical numbers on 20 less targets. Something is wrong. I really think it might be us and our talent evaluation on this guy. We've ALL been wrong about guys and maybe he had us all fooled last year. This is coming from someone who believed he had a good shot this year and was the "real deal". This is also coming from someone that is willing to sit on guys underperforming like AJ and S. Jackson and DeAngelo Williams if I think the talent is there.

 

[FavreCo]

He is only playing 50% of the snaps. Last year I am sure it was a lot more. Gaffney is eating into his #'s as he is also out there 50% or so.

 

[gianmarco]

He is only playing 50% of the snaps. Last year I am sure it was a lot more. Gaffney is eating into his #'s as he is also out there 50% or so.

Did he start the year at only 50%? Where do you have the numbers for this?

 

[EBF]

I think sometimes that we get stuck on a player having a good season and that being "proof" that he can get it done again. Last year, Lance Moore was the #13 WR and 79/928/10. Is he really that good? I like him, but he's not. In 2007, Bobby Engram caught 94/1147/6. He SIGNIFICANTLY overachieved that year. He's just not that good. In 2006, Mike Furrey had 98/1086/6. Trust me, Mike Furrey isn't that good. These guys overachieved and a big reason for it was due to situation for them. Maybe that's all that Royal did. I know he "looked" the part last year, but maybe he was just a product of the situation last year.

I think there's a pretty obvious distinction between Royal and Moore/Furrey. Neither one of those guys was touted as a quality prospect entering the league. Mike Furrey was undrafted. Lance Moore was undrafted. They were journeymen who inched their way up the ladder and capitalized on very favorable short term situations. Engram is closer. Like Royal, he was a high draft pick, but I don't think he possessed Royal's physical gifts (and that's probably why Engram fell to the 2nd round despite his high profile college career). No one thinks of Bobby Engram as physical specimen whereas Eddie Royal is an elite athlete. 4.39 40 yard dash. 1.46 ten yard dash. 36" vert and 10'4" broad jump. Benched 225 pounds 24 times at the combine (the same number of reps as his 6'6" 309 pound teammate Ryan Clady). He's a freak of nature.I've been disappointed with Royal's season, but I think it's pretty clear that his situation is severely limiting his production. Shanahan loved him and made a concerted effort to utilize him. Hence his excellent numbers. McDaniels is almost the complete opposite. He seemingly hates him and makes almost no effort to utilize him. Hence his disappointing numbers. This thread is a year too late. If anyone had any questions about Royal, they should've sold him this offseason when there was obvious trouble on the horizon with the exit of Cutler/Shanahan and the entrance of Orton/McDaniels. Now it's too late to parlay Royal into a more reliable player. I don't think it makes any sense to move him. I think he's better than almost anyone you could trade him for. Personally, I expect him to eventually resurface as a reliable WR2 in the mold of Terry Glenn or Santonio Holmes.In the end, it's all about whether or not you believe. Like I said earlier, if you had any doubts then you should've traded him a long time ago. If you didn't have any doubts then you shouldn't let one nightmare season convince you to sell low.

 

[gianmarco]

I think sometimes that we get stuck on a player having a good season and that being "proof" that he can get it done again. Last year, Lance Moore was the #13 WR and 79/928/10. Is he really that good? I like him, but he's not. In 2007, Bobby Engram caught 94/1147/6. He SIGNIFICANTLY overachieved that year. He's just not that good. In 2006, Mike Furrey had 98/1086/6. Trust me, Mike Furrey isn't that good. These guys overachieved and a big reason for it was due to situation for them. Maybe that's all that Royal did. I know he "looked" the part last year, but maybe he was just a product of the situation last year.

I think there's a pretty obvious distinction between Royal and Moore/Furrey. Neither one of those guys was touted as a quality prospect entering the league. Mike Furrey was undrafted. Lance Moore was undrafted. They were journeymen who inched their way up the ladder and capitalized on very favorable short term situations. Engram is closer. Like Royal, he was a high draft pick, but I don't think he possessed Royal's physical gifts (and that's probably why Engram fell to the 2nd round despite his high profile college career). No one thinks of Bobby Engram as physical specimen whereas Eddie Royal is an elite athlete. 4.39 40 yard dash. 1.46 ten yard dash. 36" vert and 10'4" broad jump. Benched 225 pounds 24 times at the combine (the same number of reps as his 6'6" 309 pound teammate Ryan Clady). He's a freak of nature.I've been disappointed with Royal's season, but I think it's pretty clear that his situation is severely limiting his production. Shanahan loved him and made a concerted effort to utilize him. Hence his excellent numbers. McDaniels is almost the complete opposite. He seemingly hates him and makes almost no effort to utilize him. Hence his disappointing numbers. This thread is a year too late. If anyone had any questions about Royal, they should've sold him this offseason when there was obvious trouble on the horizon with the exit of Cutler/Shanahan and the entrance of Orton/McDaniels. Now it's too late to parlay Royal into a more reliable player. I don't think it makes any sense to move him. I think he's better than almost anyone you could trade him for. Personally, I expect him to eventually resurface as a reliable WR2 in the mold of Terry Glenn or Santonio Holmes.In the end, it's all about whether or not you believe. Like I said earlier, if you had any doubts then you should've traded him a long time ago. If you didn't have any doubts then you shouldn't let one nightmare season convince you to sell low.

Why is it a year too late? Why is it wrong to have doubts now? Why is it unacceptable to believe he has talent based on one year and then feel the opposite after one year? This is where the disconnect is and why I think many people are going to keep him too long if he turns out to be a bust. It's one thing to have a knee-jerk to every player that underproduces. But it's another thing to completely ignore some SERIOUS red flags. This is where we disagree because I do not think it's wrong to rethink our evaluation after last year.You're quoting his combine numbers but they are much less important at the WR position than at RB. I couldn't care less what he benched. There's plenty of faster WR's than 4.39. He may be a good athlete but there's so much more that goes into being a WR. And let's not get carried away with his draft position. He was a mid 2nd round pick. He was the 5th WR taken in a draft that didn't have a single 1st round WR talent. He's far from a can't miss prospect. Look, I'm not saying you're wrong in his evaluation of talent. It's very possible that this year is a complete fluke and he is as good as last year indicated. What I'm suggesting is that maybe LAST year was the fluke and he isn't as talented as we seem to think and you're dismissing that notion. It's ok to stand by your evaluation. We're all entitled to do so. But, this goes beyond believing in a guy like Mendenhall or Rice just because they didn't do much their 1st year. This is believing in someone after he has failed miserably on the field. It's almost unprecedented. Michael Clayton was a FIRST round WR. He went for 80/1193/7 his rookie year. He was 15th overall selected pick. He fell off to 32/372/0 his 2nd year. He's never topped 38/484/1 since. That was 5 years ago. So let's not pretend that a blue-chip prospect that comes out of the gates his 1st year is destined for success. It's obviously the exception, but it happens. Then again, Royal's 2nd year is also the exception. I'm just saying.....Either way, I completely disagree that it's now wrong to reassess our evaluations of his talent and change our minds. It doesn't always take 3-4 years to do that. Just briefly consider that maybe he isn't as talented as you and many others (and myself) thought he was.

 

[az_prof]

I think whether he is a Sell or a Keep depends on what you can get for him. I tend to agree that is talented but I am not sure his situation is going to improve anytime in the near future (McDaniels and Orton look to be staying based on their success). So, you have to decide if hanging onto a guy like Royals without getting any useful production for say the next three years is worth the potential payoff for when his situation improves. And you balance that against what you could get for him.

I am not sure about some of the comparisons being offered for him though. He is a small WR, and one of the reasons why I avoided him. I think size doesn't matter as much if you have speed and a scheme designed to get you the ball deep, and/or a QB who is very accurate. I don't know why he can't play the Welker role in this offense but he either can't or McDaniels won't use him in that role. I don't think his lack of size would matter as much if they used him that way.

 

[EBF]

You answered your own question.

This is also coming from someone that is willing to sit on guys underperforming like AJ and S. Jackson and DeAngelo Williams if I think the talent is there.

I think the talent is there. I'm willing to sit on Eddie Royal even though he's underperfoming. Before last season I made a post touting Sidney Rice as a good buy low candidate. Guess what happened? He sucked. Horribly. In 13 games he caught 15 passes for 141 yards. The talent he showed as a rookie was nowhere to be seen. There were legitimate explanations for his struggles (injuries + Tarvaris), but that didn't prevent myself and others from losing some of our enthusiasm. Fortunately, I didn't panic and try to trade him for whatever I could get. I knew he was more talented than his price tag, so I kept him and he rewarded my patience.

I don't advocate knee-jerk reactions in dynasty leagues. If you think you have a good read on a player's abilities, I don't think you should let a relatively small sample size massively alter your opinion. It's not that hard to explain Royal's struggles. McDaniels hates him. Orton sucks. Marshall is a beast. There aren't enough quality targets to keep Eddie relevant. I don't know if these factors will continue to plague him next year and beyond, but I know he's the same guy he was last season when he put up impressive stats and looked good doing it. I'm just not that worried.

If I could trade him for a top flight prospect like Hakeem Nicks or Percy Harvin then yea, I'd do it. But I don't think you're going to get much for Royal right now. I don't think his trade value exceeds his actual value. I don't think it makes sense to sell.

 

[BuckeyeArt]

He is only playing 50% of the snaps. Last year I am sure it was a lot more. Gaffney is eating into his #'s as he is also out there 50% or so.

Did he start the year at only 50%? Where do you have the numbers for this?

For the year:Royal is at 63%

Marshall is at 82%

Gaffney is at 65%

Broncos offensive summary

 

[gianmarco]

You answered your own question.

This is also coming from someone that is willing to sit on guys underperforming like AJ and S. Jackson and DeAngelo Williams if I think the talent is there.

I think the talent is there. I'm willing to sit on Eddie Royal even though he's underperfoming. Before last season I made a post touting Sidney Rice as a good buy low candidate. Guess what happened? He sucked. Horribly. In 13 games he caught 15 passes for 141 yards. The talent he showed as a rookie was nowhere to be seen. There were legitimate explanations for his struggles (injuries + Tarvaris), but that didn't prevent myself and others from losing some of our enthusiasm. Fortunately, I didn't panic and try to trade him for whatever I could get. I knew he was more talented than his price tag, so I kept him and he rewarded my patience.

I don't advocate knee-jerk reactions in dynasty leagues. If you think you have a good read on a player's abilities, I don't think you should let a relatively small sample size massively alter your opinion. It's not that hard to explain Royal's struggles. McDaniels hates him. Orton sucks. Marshall is a beast. There aren't enough quality targets to keep Eddie relevant. I don't know if these factors will continue to plague him next year and beyond, but I know he's the same guy he was last season when he put up impressive stats and looked good doing it. I'm just not that worried.

If I could trade him for a top flight prospect like Hakeem Nicks or Percy Harvin then yea, I'd do. But I don't think you're going to get much for Royal right now. I don't think his trade value exceeds his actual value. I don't think it makes sense to sell.

There's a difference in Rice and Royal. Rice never got on the field enough to prove it and didn't have a QB to get it to him. There's quite a few WR's that simply take time. It's different when you show it on the field and then significantly regress. Completely different. Maybe it is McDaniels and Orton. It's the only explanation. I just don't buy it personally. Orton isn't THAT bad. Marshall should be helping Royal, not hurting him. They were able to coexist just fine last year. Why does McDaniels hate him? Is there any indication of that? And how do you explain his tremendous drop in production/target compared to last year? It's not just a decrease in targets, it's a decrease in what he's doing with them.

I'm not advocating selling him for dirt cheap. But I would be looking to move him just to see what I could get and jump on something of even moderate value. I'd move him for a prospect like Nicks or Britt in a heartbeat.

 

[MDSkinner]

Why is it a year too late? Why is it wrong to have doubts now? Why is it unacceptable to believe he has talent based on one year and then feel the opposite after one year? .......................Either way, I completely disagree that it's now wrong to reassess our evaluations of his talent and change our minds. It doesn't always take 3-4 years to do that. Just briefly consider that maybe he isn't as talented as you and many others (and myself) thought he was.

Just to comment on these two items. I think the only reason why the first part that I quoted was even mentioned is because right now, who are you going to drop Royal for on the Dynasty waiver wire, or who could you get in a trade? Probably not much of anything, and surely noone with WR2 every week ability. If you can get that, by all means, dump him now. In one of my Dynasty leagues, Antwaan Randel El is currently the highest scoring available free agent on the waiver wire. In the scoring of my league, Randel El is barely better than Royal (he currently has 10 more total points than Royal) and I tend to think there is a better chance that Royal can become something more than I believe Randel El can. Others may disagree, and that is reasonable. But the key is in many Dynasty leagues it is not like there are people willing to trade a WR1 or WR2 for Royal, and many WR3's are not doing a lot better. To your second point, clearly it is never wrong to rassess. And if you think that someone you can get for him, or someone on the waiver is better you would be crazy not to drop him now. I am not in that situation personally, so I will hang on to him and hope that they find a way to utilize the guy better in the future. Whichever way you go there is risk, and probably no more risk one way than the other.

 

[EBF]

It's different when you show it on the field and then significantly regress. Completely different.

I play a lot of poker. In poker it is possible to play perfectly over a large sample size and still lose money because of variance. It is also possible to play terribly over a large sample size and still win money because of variance. Results are an imperfect indicator of performance. This leads people to sometimes confuse a correct decision with a mistake because of the results. This is called "results oriented" thinking. When someone is being results oriented, they're confusing results with performance. I think you're bordering on that here. Royal's results have significantly regressed. I don't know if this necessarily proves that his performance has significantly regressed. There are a number of factors beyond his control that could explain his poor results. Maybe it's the routes. Maybe it's the quarterback. Maybe it's him. Maybe it's a combination of all of these things. 75 targets is not a huge sample size. I don't think it's sufficient to conclude that Royal's performance has significantly regressed.

This is where it would be helpful to have some Broncos homers chime in. Does Royal actually look worse than he did last season or is he simply suffering from a lack of quality opportunities? I suspect it's the latter. He looks plenty explosive on returns and I haven't noticed any bad drops in the games I've seen. There's no doubt that his results are down, but that doesn't prove that it's his fault.

I'd move him for a prospect like Nicks or Britt in a heartbeat.

I wouldn't fault you for that. I don't think you're going to find many owners who will make that deal with you though. As I said earlier, I think Royal is better than almost anyone you could get for him in a trade. He is not a hot commodity right now.

 

[Kitrick Taylor]

I think sometimes that we get stuck on a player having a good season and that being "proof" that he can get it done again. Last year, Lance Moore was the #13 WR and 79/928/10. Is he really that good? I like him, but he's not. In 2007, Bobby Engram caught 94/1147/6. He SIGNIFICANTLY overachieved that year. He's just not that good. In 2006, Mike Furrey had 98/1086/6. Trust me, Mike Furrey isn't that good. These guys overachieved and a big reason for it was due to situation for them. Maybe that's all that Royal did. I know he "looked" the part last year, but maybe he was just a product of the situation last year.

I think there's a pretty obvious distinction between Royal and Moore/Furrey. Neither one of those guys was touted as a quality prospect entering the league. Mike Furrey was undrafted. Lance Moore was undrafted. They were journeymen who inched their way up the ladder and capitalized on very favorable short term situations. Engram is closer. Like Royal, he was a high draft pick, but I don't think he possessed Royal's physical gifts (and that's probably why Engram fell to the 2nd round despite his high profile college career). No one thinks of Bobby Engram as physical specimen whereas Eddie Royal is an elite athlete. 4.39 40 yard dash. 1.46 ten yard dash. 36" vert and 10'4" broad jump. Benched 225 pounds 24 times at the combine (the same number of reps as his 6'6" 309 pound teammate Ryan Clady). He's a freak of nature.I've been disappointed with Royal's season, but I think it's pretty clear that his situation is severely limiting his production. Shanahan loved him and made a concerted effort to utilize him. Hence his excellent numbers. McDaniels is almost the complete opposite. He seemingly hates him and makes almost no effort to utilize him. Hence his disappointing numbers. This thread is a year too late. If anyone had any questions about Royal, they should've sold him this offseason when there was obvious trouble on the horizon with the exit of Cutler/Shanahan and the entrance of Orton/McDaniels. Now it's too late to parlay Royal into a more reliable player. I don't think it makes any sense to move him. I think he's better than almost anyone you could trade him for. Personally, I expect him to eventually resurface as a reliable WR2 in the mold of Terry Glenn or Santonio Holmes.In the end, it's all about whether or not you believe. Like I said earlier, if you had any doubts then you should've traded him a long time ago. If you didn't have any doubts then you shouldn't let one nightmare season convince you to sell low.

Why is it a year too late? Why is it wrong to have doubts now? Why is it unacceptable to believe he has talent based on one year and then feel the opposite after one year? This is where the disconnect is and why I think many people are going to keep him too long if he turns out to be a bust. It's one thing to have a knee-jerk to every player that underproduces. But it's another thing to completely ignore some SERIOUS red flags. This is where we disagree because I do not think it's wrong to rethink our evaluation after last year.You're quoting his combine numbers but they are much less important at the WR position than at RB. I couldn't care less what he benched. There's plenty of faster WR's than 4.39. He may be a good athlete but there's so much more that goes into being a WR. And let's not get carried away with his draft position. He was a mid 2nd round pick. He was the 5th WR taken in a draft that didn't have a single 1st round WR talent. He's far from a can't miss prospect. Look, I'm not saying you're wrong in his evaluation of talent. It's very possible that this year is a complete fluke and he is as good as last year indicated. What I'm suggesting is that maybe LAST year was the fluke and he isn't as talented as we seem to think and you're dismissing that notion. It's ok to stand by your evaluation. We're all entitled to do so. But, this goes beyond believing in a guy like Mendenhall or Rice just because they didn't do much their 1st year. This is believing in someone after he has failed miserably on the field. It's almost unprecedented. Michael Clayton was a FIRST round WR. He went for 80/1193/7 his rookie year. He was 15th overall selected pick. He fell off to 32/372/0 his 2nd year. He's never topped 38/484/1 since. That was 5 years ago. So let's not pretend that a blue-chip prospect that comes out of the gates his 1st year is destined for success. It's obviously the exception, but it happens. Then again, Royal's 2nd year is also the exception. I'm just saying.....Either way, I completely disagree that it's now wrong to reassess our evaluations of his talent and change our minds. It doesn't always take 3-4 years to do that. Just briefly consider that maybe he isn't as talented as you and many others (and myself) thought he was.

There is no problem with you questioning his talent. Some of us just disagree with your assessment. I haven't watched a lot of Bronco games, but I did see the one where he returned a punt 71 yards for a TD, and a Kick Off 93 yards. He showed talent on those plays. I also saw the game vs Pittsburgh when he caught 3 passes for 47 yards on the opening drive. A couple of those catches were fantastic. I didn't see the Patriot game where Royal caught 10 passes for 90 yards. Its almost as if his rookie and 2nd years have been reversed. Normally you see these flashes of talent by a rookie and they start to put it together in their 2nd year. Last year we saw great consistency, and this year just flashes of talent. I think the real problem going forward is will he used in that offense? No way of really knowing at this point. I could see 2010 being a repeat of 2009, and I could also see Royal becoming Wes Welker west.