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Does Eddie Royal have any dynasty value left? (1 Viewer)

Why is it a year too late? Why is it wrong to have doubts now? Why is it unacceptable to believe he has talent based on one year and then feel the opposite after one year? .......................Either way, I completely disagree that it's now wrong to reassess our evaluations of his talent and change our minds. It doesn't always take 3-4 years to do that. Just briefly consider that maybe he isn't as talented as you and many others (and myself) thought he was.
Just to comment on these two items. I think the only reason why the first part that I quoted was even mentioned is because right now, who are you going to drop Royal for on the Dynasty waiver wire, or who could you get in a trade? Probably not much of anything, and surely noone with WR2 every week ability. If you can get that, by all means, dump him now. In one of my Dynasty leagues, Antwaan Randel El is currently the highest scoring available free agent on the waiver wire. In the scoring of my league, Randel El is barely better than Royal (he currently has 10 more total points than Royal) and I tend to think there is a better chance that Royal can become something more than I believe Randel El can. Others may disagree, and that is reasonable. But the key is in many Dynasty leagues it is not like there are people willing to trade a WR1 or WR2 for Royal, and many WR3's are not doing a lot better. To your second point, clearly it is never wrong to rassess. And if you think that someone you can get for him, or someone on the waiver is better you would be crazy not to drop him now. I am not in that situation personally, so I will hang on to him and hope that they find a way to utilize the guy better in the future. Whichever way you go there is risk, and probably no more risk one way than the other.
You probably won't and most Royal owners will be stuck with him. Still doesn't mean I have to like his prospects going forward or I can't change my thinking on him. And where others are saying he's a buy, I'd be LOOKING to sell. I'd shop him around. Maybe someone is willing to pay for him. No way I'd drop him for WW fodder despite my thinking he may not be all that. In the end, this is all just speculation and I doubt there's going to be many trades of Royal this offseason. Just because you don't believe in someone doesn't mean you dump for terrible value. I initially started this thread to figure out if anyone really thought he had value. It's now clear that some do. I'm now more interested in trying to figure out which Eddie Royal is the real Eddie Royal -- 2008 or 2009. I'm going to be in the minority here and it's very possible I'm wrong, but I have serious doubts he's ever more than a WR3 for fantasy terms again for the next 4-5 years. When he blows up again, I'm sure this thread will be bumped and that's ok. It's all part of what we do in trying to figure out who's for real and who isn't. I have less of an issue with EBF as he's a believer in his own talent evaluations and I respect that. I would simply caution others to not just blindly think that this year was a fluke and he's as good as 2008. It's possible he's not. There's very few guys that have fallen off like him and there have been those that started off great and ended up being worthless.
 
It's different when you show it on the field and then significantly regress. Completely different.
I play a lot of poker. In poker it is possible to play perfectly over a large sample size and still lose money because of variance. It is also possible to play terribly over a large sample size and still win money because of variance. Results are an imperfect indicator of performance. This leads people to sometimes confuse a correct decision with a mistake because of the results. This is called "results oriented" thinking. When someone is being results oriented, they're confusing results with performance. I think you're bordering on that here. Royal's results have significantly regressed. I don't know if this necessarily proves that his performance has significantly regressed. There are a number of factors beyond his control that could explain his poor results. Maybe it's the routes. Maybe it's the quarterback. Maybe it's him. Maybe it's a combination of all of these things. 75 targets is not a huge sample size. I don't think it's sufficient to conclude that Royal's performance has significantly regressed.
This is a great analogy. However, how do you know that Royal isn't the equivalent of playing terribly over a large sample size and still winning money? What if the results of last year weren't an indicator of his performance? It's one thing if he did it for 3 yrs then had one bad year (look at Chad Johnson). It's another thing for there to be essentially two equal parts (1 season vs. 1 season even with disparity in targets). Maybe his results haven't regressed in terms of his performance. Maybe his results last year inflated his performance as a result of the system. Maybe it was the QB last year. Maybe it was the routes last year. Maybe it was the fact that he was unknown last year. Maybe it's a combination of all of these things. 120 targets is not a huge sample size. I don't think it's sufficient to conclude that Royal's performance was significantly that good.

In other words, the reasons you're claiming are hindering him this year were possibly inflating him last year. You use college careers and combines as added evidence so when you put it together with his 1st season I can see why you believe in him. I tend to go more with what actually happens in the NFL and only use college/combines to confirm or refute what I see in the NFL. I admittedly haven't watched him much this year so it would definitely be helpful to get some Denver homers here that have watched him play the last 2 years to comment on what they've seen. I would truly be interested in knowing.

 
He is only playing 50% of the snaps. Last year I am sure it was a lot more. Gaffney is eating into his #'s as he is also out there 50% or so.
Did he start the year at only 50%? Where do you have the numbers for this?
For the year:Royal is at 63%

Marshall is at 82%

Gaffney is at 65%

Broncos offensive summary
After week 4 in 2008, his low was 82% other than the week he got hurt and the week following that. He's just not on the field enough. That's problem #1.Week 5 of 2009, his best week, he was on the field 82% of the plays.

 
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Maybe his results haven't regressed in terms of his performance. Maybe his results last year inflated his performance as a result of the system. Maybe it was the QB last year. Maybe it was the routes last year. Maybe it was the fact that he was unknown last year. Maybe it's a combination of all of these things. 120 targets is not a huge sample size. I don't think it's sufficient to conclude that Royal's performance was significantly that good.
Yea, this is a fair point. A credible case can be made in either direction. As I said earlier, it comes down to what you believe. When I add up all of the information, I arrive at the conclusion that Eddie Royal is a good talent being obscured by a poor situation.
 
Given that McDaniels has shown that he is not afraid of "fighting" with players, is it possible that Royal did/said something to him early in the year that got him in the doghouse? Even with the 24/7 media we have these days, I'm sure not everything that goes on in an NFL locker room is known.

 
Maybe his results haven't regressed in terms of his performance. Maybe his results last year inflated his performance as a result of the system. Maybe it was the QB last year. Maybe it was the routes last year. Maybe it was the fact that he was unknown last year. Maybe it's a combination of all of these things. 120 targets is not a huge sample size. I don't think it's sufficient to conclude that Royal's performance was significantly that good.
Yea, this is a fair point. A credible case can be made in either direction. As I said earlier, it comes down to what you believe. When I add up all of the information, I arrive at the conclusion that Eddie Royal is a good talent being obscured by a poor situation.
I think anyone questioning Royals performance (as opposed to production) hasn't been watching him play at all. The routes are still crisp and his cuts are breakneck - the throws just aren't there most of the time. Orton flat sucks at making any throw not 15-20 yards down the field and 8 ft up in the air - which pretty much leaves him throwing to Brandon Marshall constantly. I honestly think Royal's numbers right now are a product of situation and not talent. He has not had many drops this year (anyone have the actual number?) and eventually will turn it around.
 
I think anyone questioning Royals performance (as opposed to production) hasn't been watching him play at all. The routes are still crisp and his cuts are breakneck - the throws just aren't there most of the time. Orton flat sucks at making any throw not 15-20 yards down the field and 8 ft up in the air - which pretty much leaves him throwing to Brandon Marshall constantly. I honestly think Royal's numbers right now are a product of situation and not talent. He has not had many drops this year (anyone have the actual number?) and eventually will turn it around.
Exactly what I think. As Far as McDaniel's doghouse. No way. His playing time has been the same from day one. He pretty much splits with Gaffney. Add Gaffney to his totals and you have his 2008 numbers.
 
Exactly what I think. As Far as McDaniel's doghouse. No way. His playing time has been the same from day one. He pretty much splits with Gaffney. Add Gaffney to his totals and you have his 2008 numbers.

Gaffney/Stokely are going to put up almost the same numbers that Stokely/DJax did last year.

The numbers are down because the passing offense isn't nearly as good with Orton as it was with Cutler. WRs/TEs split 21.4 receptions/game last year. Its 16/game this year. That's over a 25% drop/game.

Orton is on pace to throw for 5 less TDs and about 1000 less yards. Roughly the same stats Royal put up last year.

 
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I have less of an issue with EBF as he's a believer in his own talent evaluations and I respect that. I would simply caution others to not just blindly think that this year was a fluke and he's as good as 2008. It's possible he's not. There's very few guys that have fallen off like him and there have been those that started off great and ended up being worthless.

I tend to agree more with EBF. If the coach, offensive system, QB, and Defense weren't night and day different from last year I could understand that perhaps Eddie just got "lucky" last year. Everything has changed. I caught 2 Denver games, 1 was the game he returned the Kickoff and punt return for TD's. I don't recall who Denver was playing the second game, but he was only targeted a handful of times and quite literally the ball was delivered to him either skipping off the carpet, or way behind him. Eddie was NEVER the first read, they simply aren't calling plays for him like they did last year. He is the 4th option (Marshall being 1 and 2) from what I've seen, and Orton has been a day late and a dollar short delivering him the ball. If he isn't getting the ball, isn't getting it in open space, and isn't catching it in stride than I have a difficult time blaming HIM for the results. His targets are down

 
Maybe you can get something. How long does he have to continue this until it's time to give up?
His dynasty value depends on the depth of your league. I'm in only one dynasty league anymore. 14 teams and we keep 24 players each; league is 336 deep at it's shallowest. Rosters are 30-deep after the draft.In such a scenario, I'd be evaluating him against Aaron Brown or Mike Tolbert. He's a keeper. Sit and wait.Other dynasty leagues are much more shallow. I've seen 12-team leagues with 8 keepers call themselves dynasty leagues. (That's a keeper league, in my book, but that's another discussion.) That's just 96 deep. You could be deciding between Royal and a solid productive mid-tier WR."dynasty value" is a very, very relative term.Very few players have absolute "dynasty value" due to the differening nature of what is called dynasty.If you're deciding between keeping Eddie Royal and Aaron Brown, Eddie Royal has value.If you're deciding between keeping Eddie Royal and Felix Jones, Eddie Royal has no value.
 
I mean, at this point, he's really no different in terms of expected returns of any other rookie or 2nd year WR who hasn't shown anything yet.
I disagree with that. He has already proven that he's capable of playing at a high level whereas most of those guys haven't. If you didn't have faith in Royal's talent, you should've sold him in the offseason when his value was high. If you do have faith in Royal's talent, there's no reason to move him now because he's better than anyone you could get for him.
:popcorn:
 
BusterTBronco said:
Please stop saying that Eddie Royal has talent

He does not.

Just a one year wonder.
It seems to me you can't do what Royal did last year and not have talent.The linked to stats you provided regarding DYAR would not seem to be a good barometer of talent. Certainly, I wouldn't use it as

a means for guaging where to draft my WR's next year.

Bottom line is that it is too early to tell whether or not Royal will get back to where he was in his magical rookie season. If there are dynasty rosters out there that afford the luxury to bury him there while he ripens, it would seem to make sense to hold him. The Broncos offense should only continue to improve through next year.

 
Personnel executives from around the league reportedly believe that Eddie Royal has lost his confidence with a diminished role in the Broncos' offense.

Defenses are also being more physical with him at the line of scrimmage, but the main issue remains Josh McDaniels' offense. Royal has nine games with two or fewer catches, and McDaniels has failed to get him more involved as the season has gone along.

Source: Denver Post

 
pghrob said:
It seems to me you can't do what Royal did last year and not have talent.
I don't know if that's necessarily the case.Lance Moore -- 79/928/10Bobby Engram -- 94/1147/6Mike Furrey -- 98/1086/6Eddie Royal -- 91/980/5Great year for a rookie, no doubt. It would tend to suggest he does have talent. But, let's face it. If Mike Furrey can put up 98/1086/6 in the NFL given his talent level, then I don't think it's an absolute to say you can't do what he did and not have talent. Not to take anything away from Furrey, but let's face it. The guy simply isn't that good in NFL terms. He benefited from a great situation (Martz) to put up great #'s. Maybe Royal did the same in Denver. But, I think it IS possible to do what he did and not have talent (at least top tier talent which is what I'm sure you mean).
 
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I don't like to bump old threads much, but I found this a good read and a good one to re-visit:

Eddie Royal is Overrated

I'm the first one to say that I don't get 'em all right - but even when I do get something right (which I think I did with Royal's value) then I still want to review it again and see that my thoughts made sense and use that again to increase my odds of being right next time.

Go ahead and read that thread and if you feel compelled to bump it - great. If not, that's cool too. I don't like "Look at me" threads much. I just thought it would add value to this discussion.

Carry on.

 
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I don't like to bump old threads much, but I found this a good read and a good one to re-visit:

Eddie Royal is Overrated

I'm the first one to say that I don't get 'em all right - but even when I do get something right (which I think I did with Royal's value) then I still want to review it again and see that my thoughts made sense and use that again to increase my odds of being right next time.

Go ahead and read that thread and if you feel compelled to bump it - great. If not, that's cool too. I don't like "Look at me" threads much. I just thought it would add value to this discussion.

Carry on.
With respect, the other thread you started predates the Gaffney signing, the McDaniels/Cutler blowup, and the Knowshon Moreno drafting/signing.The Broncos offense has gone from the second most yards in the league in 08 to the 17th most yards in the league in 09. The percentage of completions to running backs has gone up from about 11 to about 20. The percentage of passes to wide receivers has dropped. The number of passing yards has dropped 23%. The number of first downs has dropped from 22 a game to 18. The number of points has dropped by 3.5 a game. Third down conversion rate has dropped from 48% to 36%.

Royal's value might very well have been pegged correctly before Gaffney was signed, Orton was his quarterback and the Broncos took Moreno with the twelfth pick.

Eddie Royal isn't a worldbeater, but on February 9, 2009, the date of your posting, the huge changes that caused his value to drop hadn't all happened yet.

 
I don't like to bump old threads much, but I found this a good read and a good one to re-visit:

Eddie Royal is Overrated

I'm the first one to say that I don't get 'em all right - but even when I do get something right (which I think I did with Royal's value) then I still want to review it again and see that my thoughts made sense and use that again to increase my odds of being right next time.

Go ahead and read that thread and if you feel compelled to bump it - great. If not, that's cool too. I don't like "Look at me" threads much. I just thought it would add value to this discussion.

Carry on.
With respect, the other thread you started predates the Gaffney signing, the McDaniels/Cutler blowup, and the Knowshon Moreno drafting/signing.The Broncos offense has gone from the second most yards in the league in 08 to the 17th most yards in the league in 09. The percentage of completions to running backs has gone up from about 11 to about 20. The percentage of passes to wide receivers has dropped. The number of passing yards has dropped 23%. The number of first downs has dropped from 22 a game to 18. The number of points has dropped by 3.5 a game. Third down conversion rate has dropped from 48% to 36%.

Royal's value might very well have been pegged correctly before Gaffney was signed, Orton was his quarterback and the Broncos took Moreno with the twelfth pick.

Eddie Royal isn't a worldbeater, but on February 9, 2009, the date of your posting, the huge changes that caused his value to drop hadn't all happened yet.
While everything you said is indeed true, the point is that in February I gave several reasons why he was overrated. Of course that post pre-dates all of that off-season activity. If anything, it foreshadowed that Denver was going to make significant changes to try and improve on the issues I highlighted as reasons why Royal was overrated, such as Denver's lack of a running game (Moreno drafted). While predicting all of the actual changes would have been impossible, predictions of changes to that offense and team were not. All of the improvements that they made from Feb-Sept downgraded the likelihood of Royal repeating / improving on his rookie campaign. Improving the ground game and defense lowered his production. Sure the loss of Shanahan and Cutler changed the face of the team, but the moves that they made would have altered Royal's outlook anyway.
 
I don't like to bump old threads much, but I found this a good read and a good one to re-visit:

Eddie Royal is Overrated

I'm the first one to say that I don't get 'em all right - but even when I do get something right (which I think I did with Royal's value) then I still want to review it again and see that my thoughts made sense and use that again to increase my odds of being right next time.

Go ahead and read that thread and if you feel compelled to bump it - great. If not, that's cool too. I don't like "Look at me" threads much. I just thought it would add value to this discussion.

Carry on.
With respect, the other thread you started predates the Gaffney signing, the McDaniels/Cutler blowup, and the Knowshon Moreno drafting/signing.The Broncos offense has gone from the second most yards in the league in 08 to the 17th most yards in the league in 09. The percentage of completions to running backs has gone up from about 11 to about 20. The percentage of passes to wide receivers has dropped. The number of passing yards has dropped 23%. The number of first downs has dropped from 22 a game to 18. The number of points has dropped by 3.5 a game. Third down conversion rate has dropped from 48% to 36%.

Royal's value might very well have been pegged correctly before Gaffney was signed, Orton was his quarterback and the Broncos took Moreno with the twelfth pick.

Eddie Royal isn't a worldbeater, but on February 9, 2009, the date of your posting, the huge changes that caused his value to drop hadn't all happened yet.
While everything you said is indeed true, the point is that in February I gave several reasons why he was overrated. Of course that post pre-dates all of that off-season activity. If anything, it foreshadowed that Denver was going to make significant changes to try and improve on the issues I highlighted as reasons why Royal was overrated, such as Denver's lack of a running game (Moreno drafted). While predicting all of the actual changes would have been impossible, predictions of changes to that offense and team were not. All of the improvements that they made from Feb-Sept downgraded the likelihood of Royal repeating / improving on his rookie campaign. Improving the ground game and defense lowered his production. Sure the loss of Shanahan and Cutler changed the face of the team, but the moves that they made would have altered Royal's outlook anyway.
No argument there. The passing attempts numbers were unsustainable, and you were certainly correct about that. This may well be a discussion centering around how many nails were in the coffin. Some certainly were there, as you well noted. Other significant issues that impacted Royal's 09 value had not presented themselves yet.

 
So Marshall is gone, but the Broncos draft two WR's in the first 3 rounds? Doesn't say a lot for how Royal is viewed in Denver.

 
So Marshall is gone, but the Broncos draft two WR's in the first 3 rounds? Doesn't say a lot for how Royal is viewed in Denver.
If Denver had drafted a QB in the first three rounds I would have some hope for a possibly significant passing game... but they passed on the QBs this year.
 
So Marshall is gone, but the Broncos draft two WR's in the first 3 rounds? Doesn't say a lot for how Royal is viewed in Denver.
With both picks being rookies and both coming off a broken foot Royal will at least get a chance to show his worth this year. If McDaniels would use his head Royal would be his Wes Welker. Thomas has to learn to run route. Decker is definitely going to push Gaffney too the side if he can stay healthy.
 
So Marshall is gone, but the Broncos draft two WR's in the first 3 rounds? Doesn't say a lot for how Royal is viewed in Denver.
I don't know about that. McDaniels loves him some 3-WR sets, and it's not just Brandon Marshall who needs to be replaced (Brandon Stokley is about to age out of the NFL, and Jabar Gaffney is not a starter-caliber WR). Plus, rookies are volatile. I don't think two WRs in the first three rounds is much of a reflection on Eddie Royal going forward.
 
Okay...a lot has happened since the last post. Now there is a new coaching regime (albeit run first) and Royal has risen to WR2 in the early preseason Broncos depth chart behind $$$Lloyd. FBG experts have avg. wr ranking for dynasty format in low to mid 60's. Who is rostering or looking to roster him? What is your outlook for him this year? Eric Decker is nipping at his heals. Does he hold him off?

 
Well...looks like I was dead wrong about this guy. I just drafted him as the 302nd (!) pick in a 14 team dynasty startup. That tells you where his value is right now.

I think it's pretty clear in hindsight that the best sell-high window was right after his rookie year. He hasn't done much in Denver under the last two coaching staffs. On the other hand, he'll only be 26 next season and he's a free agent. A reunion with Shanahan makes a lot of sense for both parties. Could 2012 be the year of the Eddie Royal renaissance?

:truebeliever:

Really though, he's SOOOOO cheap right now that he's probably worth a punt just in case he signs somewhere nice. I don't think he'll be returning to the horror show of Tebow and Denver's potent 15 pass attempts per game offense.

 
I bought. Got him fairly cheap off the waiver wire after someone dropped him towards the end of season.

I think there is hope for him. Who would want to play in that atrocious excuse for an offense that is the Denver Broncos unless you are a RB?

I hope he signs elsewhere or if the Broncos keep him, I hope they bring in a legit QB.

A nice scenario I envision is him signing with Philly as a cheaper, less dramatic replacement for DJax. That would be sweet!

 
I bought. Got him fairly cheap off the waiver wire after someone dropped him towards the end of season.

I think there is hope for him. Who would want to play in that atrocious excuse for an offense that is the Denver Broncos unless you are a RB?

I hope he signs elsewhere or if the Broncos keep him, I hope they bring in a legit QB.

A nice scenario I envision is him signing with Philly as a cheaper, less dramatic replacement for DJax. That would be sweet!
Demaryius Thomas' last 7 games in that offense were pretty good.4-144-2

7-78-1

7-116

4-76

3-34

4-204-1

6-93

In a standard PPR, that is 19.07 PPG. In the same time frame, Royal averaged 3.04 PPG.

 
I bought. Got him fairly cheap off the waiver wire after someone dropped him towards the end of season.

I think there is hope for him. Who would want to play in that atrocious excuse for an offense that is the Denver Broncos unless you are a RB?

I hope he signs elsewhere or if the Broncos keep him, I hope they bring in a legit QB.

A nice scenario I envision is him signing with Philly as a cheaper, less dramatic replacement for DJax. That would be sweet!
Demaryius Thomas' last 7 games in that offense were pretty good.4-144-2

7-78-1

7-116

4-76

3-34

4-204-1

6-93

In a standard PPR, that is 19.07 PPG. In the same time frame, Royal averaged 3.04 PPG.
Which just goes to show that with Tebow at the helm, there is likely going to be only one happy WR on any given week. And most weeks, that guy is going to be Thomas. Decker had his moments, but they dwindled substantially as the season wore on and as Thomas emerged. Thomas is the only Denver wideout with big time potential (assuming they all remain in Denver). Both Decker and Royal could produce very nicely in the right system, so neither one of them should be written off entirely. Both are worth a hold and wait-and-see approach in all but the most shallow of dynasty leagues.
 
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I bought. Got him fairly cheap off the waiver wire after someone dropped him towards the end of season.

I think there is hope for him. Who would want to play in that atrocious excuse for an offense that is the Denver Broncos unless you are a RB?

I hope he signs elsewhere or if the Broncos keep him, I hope they bring in a legit QB.

A nice scenario I envision is him signing with Philly as a cheaper, less dramatic replacement for DJax. That would be sweet!
Demaryius Thomas' last 7 games in that offense were pretty good.4-144-2

7-78-1

7-116

4-76

3-34

4-204-1

6-93

In a standard PPR, that is 19.07 PPG. In the same time frame, Royal averaged 3.04 PPG.
Which just goes to show that with Tebow at the helm, there is likely going to be only one happy WR on any given week. And most weeks, that guy is going to be Thomas. Decker had his moments, but they dwindled substantially as the season wore on and as Thomas emerged. Thomas is the only Denver wideout with big time potential (assuming they all remain in Denver). Both Decker and Royal could produce very nicely in the right system, so neither one of them should be written off entirely. Both are worth a hold and wait-and-see approach in all but the most shallow of dynasty leagues.
True, but that is the case with the most top 50 receivers in the league...throw Mike Thomas in NE, or NYG in place of Cruz and he will have better stats (probably anywhere at the rate JAX is going)...no doubt. I wouldn't say, "one happy WR in a given week" with Tebow...I think that Thomas is the go-to...period.Decker at Week 11 and beyond (once Thomas broke out) averaged 4.7 PPG in the same format mentioned above. Sure, there are a few QBs who spread the ball better, but even Mike Furrey was a 98 catch guy when they tossed the thing down his throat...with a certain system and a basic set of skills, all of the top 50 guys could put up top 10 FF stats.

 
Royal's 5 TD's match the total number of TD's he's had the previous 4 years and match the TD's he had during his 91 catch rookie year. Unreal.

 

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