Does Peyton Manning play worse in the playoffs than the regular season (1 Viewer)

[shader]

Looking for the input of the Shark Pool here as this discussion is buried in a ridiculous Tebow thread.

 

[chidoy]

Tied for most playoff losses. 12 playoffs - 8 times one-&-done.So. Yes.

 

[cstu]

Statistically, I don't how there's any question. How much of that is due to playing against playoffs teams vs. the rest of the league during the regular season?

 

[Leroy Hoard]

How much of that is due to playing against playoffs teams vs. the rest of the league during the regular season?

Yes, most QBs play better in the regular season for that reason. Cuts across all positions & team sports. Some have greater differences than others and sample size also comes into play.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

I would say that virtually every QB is worse in the playoffs, as they're typically playing against better teams in the playoffs.

For fun...

QB rating drop in playoffs compared to regular season

Peyton Manning: 7.3

Tom Brady: 11.1

YPA drop in playoffs

Peyton Manning: 0.09

Tom Brady: 1.05

TD/G drop in playoffs

Peyton Manning: 0.42

Tom Brady: 0.45

Yds/G drop in playoffs

Peyton Manning: 28

Tom Brady: 28

Ints/G increase in playoffs

Peyton Manning: 0.07

Tom Brady: 0.13

So yes, Peyton Manning's stats have dropped in every category of note when comparing the playoffs vs the regular season. Of course, the same is true for Brady and probably the vast majority of QBs due to the increase in competition.

The interesting part is that statistically Brady's playoff drop is worse than Peyton's in every single category except yards per game, in which they're tied.

 

[cstu]

Woah, Brady is really bad in the playoffs.

 

[shader]

I would say that virtually every QB is worse in the playoffs, as they're typically playing against better teams in the playoffs.

For fun...

QB rating drop in playoffs compared to regular season

Peyton Manning: 7.3

Tom Brady: 11.1

YPA drop in playoffs

Peyton Manning: 0.09

Tom Brady: 1.05

TD/G drop in playoffs

Peyton Manning: 0.42

Tom Brady: 0.45

Yds/G drop in playoffs

Peyton Manning: 28

Tom Brady: 28

Ints/G increase in playoffs

Peyton Manning: 0.07

Tom Brady: 0.13

So yes, Peyton Manning's stats have dropped in every category of note when comparing the playoffs vs the regular season. Of course, the same is true for Brady and probably the vast majority of QBs due to the increase in competition.

The interesting part is that statistically Brady's playoff drop is worse than Peyton's in every single category except yards per game, in which they're tied.

Drew Brees, Eli Manning, Aaron Rodgers, John Elway, Joe Montana, Brett Favre beg to differ. All had very similar (or higher) QB ratings and TD/INT ratings.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

Woah, Brady is really bad in the playoffs.

Yup, he sucks.

 

[bostonfred]

the main defense of manning has been to use career averages, in an effort to leverage his huge numbers from four games against kc and denver to overcome his other numbers. The next step is to use stats like qb rating and yards per attempt, in an effort to double count yards per attempt (since it is factored in to qb rating). That also lets them put heavier weight on the first 11 games of bradys career, when guys like david patten and reche caldwell were starting at wr for the patriots en route to his three superbowl wins,nand he was using shorter, ball control passes outdoors. Of course, it doesn't matter that he plays outdoors to manning supporters, because that's only a reasonable excuse when manning is unfairly asked to step outside in the cold. But when tom brady throws for 312 yards and runs for a td and throws one pick against the raiders in the snow game, that's only good for a 70.4 passer rating. In fact, full game passer ratings have become the trendy way to hide mannings postseason playoff failures, because they allow his fans to hide the overtime interception, or the pick six in the superbowl against the saints, or the back to back turnovers on downs he had to end two more playoff games, or the mistakenly overturned polamalu interception that would have ended the game, but instead allowed him to lose the game twice more with boneheaded mistakes. All that can be cast aside by saying, look, he only had those two bad games in new england - you know, the one with the 4 interceptions, and the other one, where, after setting a (then) nfl record for touchdown passes, he led the colts to three (3) total points. And then they can blame his defense, who obviously was to blame in the 41-0 rout the jets put on the colts, and who never bailed him out, say, when he threw three interceptions against kc, and the d held them to 6 points even with the turnovers. Or when he threw two more interceptions the following week against baltimore, and led the colts to zero (0) touchdowns on the game. Because manning does all the good things and everyone around him is to blame for his terrible postseason luck.

 

[Ghost Rider]

Woah, Brady is really bad in the playoffs.

Yup, he sucks.

Not to mention that in the playoffs following the 2001 season, Tom Brady led two touchdown drives in the entire playoffs. Meanwhile, the defense, special teams and the backup QB got the Patriots four touchdowns. And they still needed the tuck rule and a miracle FG in the snow by their kicker to even win that first game. Talk about being carried...

 

[shader]

the main defense of manning has been to use career averages, in an effort to leverage his huge numbers from four games against kc and denver to overcome his other numbers. The next step is to use stats like qb rating and yards per attempt, in an effort to double count yards per attempt (since it is factored in to qb rating). That also lets them put heavier weight on the first 11 games of bradys career, when guys like david patten and reche caldwell were starting at wr for the patriots en route to his three superbowl wins,nand he was using shorter, ball control passes outdoors. Of course, it doesn't matter that he plays outdoors to manning supporters, because that's only a reasonable excuse when manning is unfairly asked to step outside in the cold. But when tom brady throws for 312 yards and runs for a td and throws one pick against the raiders in the snow game, that's only good for a 70.4 passer rating. In fact, full game passer ratings have become the trendy way to hide mannings postseason playoff failures, because they allow his fans to hide the overtime interception, or the pick six in the superbowl against the saints, or the back to back turnovers on downs he had to end two more playoff games, or the mistakenly overturned polamalu interception that would have ended the game, but instead allowed him to lose the game twice more with boneheaded mistakes. All that can be cast aside by saying, look, he only had those two bad games in new england - you know, the one with the 4 interceptions, and the other one, where, after setting a (then) nfl record for touchdown passes, he led the colts to three (3) total points. And then they can blame his defense, who obviously was to blame in the 41-0 rout the jets put on the colts, and who never bailed him out, say, when he threw three interceptions against kc, and the d held them to 6 points even with the turnovers. Or when he threw two more interceptions the following week against baltimore, and led the colts to zero (0) touchdowns on the game. Because manning does all the good things and everyone around him is to blame for his terrible postseason luck.

That is a good point. I'm going off memory here, but I believe it was Manning's fourth playoff run. He played KC and Denver and put up something like 8 td's in those two games, absolutely obliterating two horrific defenses. Up till that point he had been miserable in the playoffs.

 

[Ghost Rider]

That is a good point. I'm going off memory here, but I believe it was Manning's fourth playoff run. He played KC and Denver and put up something like 8 td's in those two games, absolutely obliterating two horrific defenses. Up till that point he had been miserable in the playoffs.

The Broncos defense ranked 4th in total defense and 9th in points allowed in '03 and '04 (the seasons where Manning obliterated them in the playoffs). That's horrific?

 

[Ghost Rider]

the main defense of manning has been to use career averages, in an effort to leverage his huge numbers from four games against kc and denver to overcome his other numbers. The next step is to use stats like qb rating and yards per attempt, in an effort to double count yards per attempt (since it is factored in to qb rating). That also lets them put heavier weight on the first 11 games of bradys career, when guys like david patten and reche caldwell were starting at wr for the patriots en route to his three superbowl wins,nand he was using shorter, ball control passes outdoors. Of course, it doesn't matter that he plays outdoors to manning supporters, because that's only a reasonable excuse when manning is unfairly asked to step outside in the cold. But when tom brady throws for 312 yards and runs for a td and throws one pick against the raiders in the snow game, that's only good for a 70.4 passer rating.

In all seriousness, I don't always put tons of stock in passer ratings (or QBR). I know SSOG uses them to demonstrate how similar Brady and Manning's stats are in the playoffs, but I agree that they can be misleading. But it is interesting that their playoff passer ratings are pretty similar. A lot of that has to do with how mediocre Brady was in the 2001 run combined with the bad games he has had since 2004 (the '05 loss to Denver, the loss to the Ravens in '10, his poor performance against the Ravens last year, his ho-hum Super Bowl performance against the Giants last year, etc.), so those games have dragged his overall passer rating, but you'd have to agree that Brady usually gets more help from his team in playoff games than Manning does. The 2006 run was really the only playoff run where Peyton got a ton of help from his defense and/or running game, and yes they bailed him out in several games, but those are the exceptions not the norm.The 20-3 loss following the '04 season looks bad, but we have to remember that the weather was awful that day and the Patriots outrushed the Colts that day 210-46. Flip those rushing numbers and Brady likely would have been the QB struggling that day. It is very difficult for ANY QB to play well in bad weather when you are getting zero help in the running game (and going against a top 10 D).

 

[Ghost Rider]

And really, so much depends on what teams you play and when.Take the Patriots. It is very bad luck for them that the two seasons they have made the Super Bowl in the last five years just happened to be the same years the NFC team was the Giants, a team that matches up well vs them and knows how to slow their offense down. On the flip side, the Colts caught a major break in '06 when the Chargers gagged up that game vs NE in the divisional round, as that was back when SD always gave the Colts fits. And you could look at other seasons where the Colts got unlucky and the Patriots got lucky with match-ups. It's nothing if not interesting to think how different certain seasons would have ended up had certain scenarios not played out.

 

[bostonfred]

The 20-3 loss following the '04 season looks bad, but we have to remember that the weather was awful that day and the Patriots outrushed the Colts that day 210-46. Flip those rushing numbers and Brady likely would have been the QB struggling that day. It is very difficult for ANY QB to play well in bad weather when you are getting zero help in the running game (and going against a top 10 D).

But why would you flip those numbers? Why do we have to pretend manning had a better defense and better running game when he already had harrison, wayne, clark, edge, and stokley in his career year, with an offensive line that had played great all year and a record setting offensive system? Brady had none of those things, and was throwing to scrubby receivers against a weaker d. Manning had much better offensive talent around him, playing against a better d. Those are the cards that were dealt. Knowing that two hall of fame qbs were about to meet, under exactly those conditions, and without assigning names or teams to the situation, you wouldn't guess a final score of 20 to 3. You might expect the home team to win, or you might say its going to be a shootout, but you wouldn't 3 points from the guy who just set an nfl scoring record. Unless its manning, and then its somehow excusable.Because when manning has a bad day, its the cold, or the defense, or the running game, or something other than his own performance. When he makes a huge mistake at the end of the game, its always, well, look at all the other mistakes everyone else made, or the big plays they should have made, or the lucky plays the other guys made against them. That's the part that makes no sense to me. weve watched these guys for over a decade. We know what they are and what they aren't. I don't know why people have to defend manning by pretending he's something he isn't at this point. He's great. He has a glaringly bad playoff history compared to his regular season greatness. It is what it is at this point.

 

[Stompin' Tom Connors]

How much of that is due to playing against playoffs teams vs. the rest of the league during the regular season?

Yes, most QBs play better in the regular season for that reason. Cuts across all positions & team sports. Some have greater differences than others and sample size also comes into play.

Slightly OT, Would love to see the data about this. I think logically this holds true, as does your caveat about the relative deltas and sample size between sports. But I bet there could be some notable positional exceptions.Take hockey -- seems to me that there is always a case of a goalie getting hot in the playoffs, standing on his head and pitching shutouts where he was merely good in the regular season, that makes all the difference in the world to who gets to the Cup finals.

 

[shader]

That is a good point. I'm going off memory here, but I believe it was Manning's fourth playoff run. He played KC and Denver and put up something like 8 td's in those two games, absolutely obliterating two horrific defenses. Up till that point he had been miserable in the playoffs.

The Broncos defense ranked 4th in total defense and 9th in points allowed in '03 and '04 (the seasons where Manning obliterated them in the playoffs). That's horrific?

As I said I was going off of memory. Good points, I'll withdraw. It doesn't say anything to the overall "Peyton Manning" story, but if you'd like to use those two games to prove how effective he is, have at it.

 

[BassNBrew]

The 20-3 loss following the '04 season looks bad, but we have to remember that the weather was awful that day and the Patriots outrushed the Colts that day 210-46. Flip those rushing numbers and Brady likely would have been the QB struggling that day. It is very difficult for ANY QB to play well in bad weather when you are getting zero help in the running game (and going against a top 10 D).

But why would you flip those numbers? Why do we have to pretend manning had a better defense and better running game when he already had harrison, wayne, clark, edge, and stokley in his career year, with an offensive line that had played great all year and a record setting offensive system? Brady had none of those things, and was throwing to scrubby receivers against a weaker d. Manning had much better offensive talent around him, playing against a better d. Those are the cards that were dealt. Knowing that two hall of fame qbs were about to meet, under exactly those conditions, and without assigning names or teams to the situation, you wouldn't guess a final score of 20 to 3. You might expect the home team to win, or you might say its going to be a shootout, but you wouldn't 3 points from the guy who just set an nfl scoring record. Unless its manning, and then its somehow excusable.Because when manning has a bad day, its the cold, or the defense, or the running game, or something other than his own performance. When he makes a huge mistake at the end of the game, its always, well, look at all the other mistakes everyone else made, or the big plays they should have made, or the lucky plays the other guys made against them. That's the part that makes no sense to me. weve watched these guys for over a decade. We know what they are and what they aren't. I don't know why people have to defend manning by pretending he's something he isn't at this point. He's great. He has a glaringly bad playoff history compared to his regular season greatness. It is what it is at this point.

I don't think anyone is arguing he's a great playoff QB, I think they're saying he performs like Tom Brady.

 

[menobrown]

To often for my taste he just happens to go uncork his worst or close to worst game of the year in the playoffs.He's great and I appreciate him even more that he lost some of his throwing ability but mentally found a way to continue to play at a MVP type level. But even if I'm talking prime Peyton there have always been multiple current NFL QB's I'd rather have leading my team in a playoff game than him.

 

[DropKick]

That is a good point. I'm going off memory here, but I believe it was Manning's fourth playoff run. He played KC and Denver and put up something like 8 td's in those two games, absolutely obliterating two horrific defenses. Up till that point he had been miserable in the playoffs.

The Broncos defense ranked 4th in total defense and 9th in points allowed in '03 and '04 (the seasons where Manning obliterated them in the playoffs). That's horrific?

The Broncos were supposed to be the 2nd best "D" THIS year and gave up 38 to Baltimore. That qualifies as horrific to me.You know what else is horrific? This thread is about Manning's post season struggles. 8 times one-and-done. Yet, you feel compelled to talk about Tom Brady's stats in his first full season?

 

[ChromeWeasel]

I would say that virtually every QB is worse in the playoffs, as they're typically playing against better teams in the playoffs.

For fun...

QB rating drop in playoffs compared to regular season

Peyton Manning: 7.3

Tom Brady: 11.1

YPA drop in playoffs

Peyton Manning: 0.09

Tom Brady: 1.05

TD/G drop in playoffs

Peyton Manning: 0.42

Tom Brady: 0.45

Yds/G drop in playoffs

Peyton Manning: 28

Tom Brady: 28

Ints/G increase in playoffs

Peyton Manning: 0.07

Tom Brady: 0.13

So yes, Peyton Manning's stats have dropped in every category of note when comparing the playoffs vs the regular season. Of course, the same is true for Brady and probably the vast majority of QBs due to the increase in competition.

The interesting part is that statistically Brady's playoff drop is worse than Peyton's in every single category except yards per game, in which they're tied.

How much does throwing a game-ending interception factor into your numeric ratings?

 

[DropKick]

The 20-3 loss following the '04 season looks bad, but we have to remember that the weather was awful that day and the Patriots outrushed the Colts that day 210-46. Flip those rushing numbers and Brady likely would have been the QB struggling that day. It is very difficult for ANY QB to play well in bad weather when you are getting zero help in the running game (and going against a top 10 D).

But why would you flip those numbers? Why do we have to pretend manning had a better defense and better running game when he already had harrison, wayne, clark, edge, and stokley in his career year, with an offensive line that had played great all year and a record setting offensive system? Brady had none of those things, and was throwing to scrubby receivers against a weaker d. Manning had much better offensive talent around him, playing against a better d. Those are the cards that were dealt. Knowing that two hall of fame qbs were about to meet, under exactly those conditions, and without assigning names or teams to the situation, you wouldn't guess a final score of 20 to 3. You might expect the home team to win, or you might say its going to be a shootout, but you wouldn't 3 points from the guy who just set an nfl scoring record. Unless its manning, and then its somehow excusable.Because when manning has a bad day, its the cold, or the defense, or the running game, or something other than his own performance. When he makes a huge mistake at the end of the game, its always, well, look at all the other mistakes everyone else made, or the big plays they should have made, or the lucky plays the other guys made against them. That's the part that makes no sense to me. weve watched these guys for over a decade. We know what they are and what they aren't. I don't know why people have to defend manning by pretending he's something he isn't at this point. He's great. He has a glaringly bad playoff history compared to his regular season greatness. It is what it is at this point.

I don't think anyone is arguing he's a great playoff QB, I think they're saying he performs like Tom Brady.

I like Manning... I really do, but technically, isn't Brady the all-time leader in play-off wins while Manning leads in losses?

 

[menobrown]

I don't think anyone is arguing he's a great playoff QB, I think they're saying he performs like Tom Brady.

Yea they are real similar except for SB wins and stuff like Brady is the ALL TIME playoff leader in wins, best winning %, most game winning drives and host of other random stats.Peyton on the other hand has I think one playoff game winning drive in his career. He's the all leader in 4th quarter comeback wins but only one happened in a playoff game.Here's another thing about Peyton. When you think of him in the playoffs how many indelible memories can you come up with? Going crazy on a weak Chiefs team in the wild card round? I just can't come up with a lot of great Peyton playoff game and can't for the life of me understand how his playoff pedigree can be compared to Brady's.

 

[Ranethe]

Woah, Brady is really bad in the playoffs.

Yeah, it's pretty predictable that Brady will choke in the playoffs. It just is. Right before the last bad play he made I turned and looked at whoever I was watching the game with and said, "Watch, he's going to make a bad play". /shader/Bostonfred

 

[Buffaloes]

I would say that virtually every QB is worse in the playoffs, as they're typically playing against better teams in the playoffs.

For fun...

QB rating drop in playoffs compared to regular season

Peyton Manning: 7.3

Tom Brady: 11.1

YPA drop in playoffs

Peyton Manning: 0.09

Tom Brady: 1.05

TD/G drop in playoffs

Peyton Manning: 0.42

Tom Brady: 0.45

Yds/G drop in playoffs

Peyton Manning: 28

Tom Brady: 28

Ints/G increase in playoffs

Peyton Manning: 0.07

Tom Brady: 0.13

So yes, Peyton Manning's stats have dropped in every category of note when comparing the playoffs vs the regular season. Of course, the same is true for Brady and probably the vast majority of QBs due to the increase in competition.

The interesting part is that statistically Brady's playoff drop is worse than Peyton's in every single category except yards per game, in which they're tied.

Drew Brees, Eli Manning, Aaron Rodgers, John Elway, Joe Montana, Brett Favre beg to differ. All had very similar (or higher) QB ratings and TD/INT ratings.

you don't get credit unless you show your math

 

[BassNBrew]

I don't think anyone is arguing he's a great playoff QB, I think they're saying he performs like Tom Brady.

Yea they are real similar except for SB wins and stuff like Brady is the ALL TIME playoff leader in wins, best winning %, most game winning drives and host of other random stats.Peyton on the other hand has I think one playoff game winning drive in his career. He's the all leader in 4th quarter comeback wins but only one happened in a playoff game.Here's another thing about Peyton. When you think of him in the playoffs how many indelible memories can you come up with? Going crazy on a weak Chiefs team in the wild card round? I just can't come up with a lot of great Peyton playoff game and can't for the life of me understand how his playoff pedigree can be compared to Brady's.

Trent Dilfer is 5-1 in playoff games and 100% in Super Bowl appearances. That dwarfs Brady's percentages.

 

[moleculo]

I think it's fair to say that Manning has performed worse in the post-season than he has in the regular season.

However, we also have to compare to him to his peers to see if this reputation is deserved or not... How has Manning's reduction in performance compare to other contemporary QB's who have a sufficient number of games under their belt?

Really, the only comp is Brady, which was oulined above.

You want to know what the difference between Manning and Brady in the post-season is? Brady's kickers made clutch field goals, Manning's did not. Conversely, Brady's opposing kickers missed whereas Mannings opponents did not.

a complete list of Brady-post-season games decided by a field goal:

2011 AFCCG: 4 0:15 4 1 NWE 14 Billy Cundiff 32 yard field goal no good

2006 vs SD:4 0:08 2 10 NWE 36 Nate Kaeding 54 yard field goal no good

2003 Superbowl: 4 0:09 1 10 CAR 23 Adam Vinatieri 41 yard field goal good

2003: NE vs TEN: 4 4:11 4 8 OTI 27 Adam Vinatieri 46 yard field goal good

2001 Superbowl: 4 0:07 3 4 RAM 30 Adam Vinatieri 48 yard field goal good

2001 vs oakland: 4 0:32 4 9 RAI 28 Adam Vinatieri 45 yard field goal good

same game: OT 6:35 3 5 RAI 5 Adam Vinatieri 23 yard field goal good

a complete list of Manning-post-season games decided by a field goal:

2012 Den vs Bal: OT 13:29 4 5 DEN 29 Justin Tucker 47 yard field goal good

2005 vs Pit: 4 0:21 4 2 PIT 28 Mike Vanderjagt 46 yard field goal no good.

2010 vs NYJ: 4 0:03 1 10 CLT 14 Nick Folk 32 yard field goal good

In games decided by a kicker, Tom Brady is 6-0 with an average QB rating of 79.4. Peyton Manning is 0-3 with an average QB rating of 95.7.

Tom Brady has a career playoff record in games not decided by a FG of 10-6. Peyton Manning has a career playoff record in games not decided by a kicker of 9-6.

 

[Popinski]

The 20-3 loss following the '04 season looks bad, but we have to remember that the weather was awful that day and the Patriots outrushed the Colts that day 210-46. Flip those rushing numbers and Brady likely would have been the QB struggling that day. It is very difficult for ANY QB to play well in bad weather when you are getting zero help in the running game (and going against a top 10 D).

But why would you flip those numbers? Why do we have to pretend manning had a better defense and better running game when he already had harrison, wayne, clark, edge, and stokley in his career year, with an offensive line that had played great all year and a record setting offensive system? Brady had none of those things, and was throwing to scrubby receivers against a weaker d. Manning had much better offensive talent around him, playing against a better d. Those are the cards that were dealt. Knowing that two hall of fame qbs were about to meet, under exactly those conditions, and without assigning names or teams to the situation, you wouldn't guess a final score of 20 to 3. You might expect the home team to win, or you might say its going to be a shootout, but you wouldn't 3 points from the guy who just set an nfl scoring record. Unless its manning, and then its somehow excusable.Because when manning has a bad day, its the cold, or the defense, or the running game, or something other than his own performance. When he makes a huge mistake at the end of the game, its always, well, look at all the other mistakes everyone else made, or the big plays they should have made, or the lucky plays the other guys made against them. That's the part that makes no sense to me. weve watched these guys for over a decade. We know what they are and what they aren't. I don't know why people have to defend manning by pretending he's something he isn't at this point. He's great. He has a glaringly bad playoff history compared to his regular season greatness. It is what it is at this point.

I don't think anyone is arguing he's a great playoff QB, I think they're saying he performs like Tom Brady.

I like Manning... I really do, but technically, isn't Brady the all-time leader in play-off wins while Manning leads in losses?

I don't know of the actual numbers, but I guess if you choose to attribute team accomplishments to individual players, then perhaps. Winning and losing is a team accomplishment, period.

 

[BassNBrew]

I think it's fair to say that Manning has performed worse in the post-season than he has in the regular season.

However, we also have to compare to him to his peers to see if this reputation is deserved or not... How has Manning's reduction in performance compare to other contemporary QB's who have a sufficient number of games under their belt?

Really, the only comp is Brady, which was oulined above.

You want to know what the difference between Manning and Brady in the post-season is? Brady's kickers made clutch field goals, Manning's did not. Conversely, Brady's opposing kickers missed whereas Mannings opponents did not.

a complete list of Brady-post-season games decided by a field goal:

2011 AFCCG: 4 0:15 4 1 NWE 14 Billy Cundiff 32 yard field goal no good

2006 vs SD:4 0:08 2 10 NWE 36 Nate Kaeding 54 yard field goal no good

2003 Superbowl: 4 0:09 1 10 CAR 23 Adam Vinatieri 41 yard field goal good

2003: NE vs TEN: 4 4:11 4 8 OTI 27 Adam Vinatieri 46 yard field goal good

2001 Superbowl: 4 0:07 3 4 RAM 30 Adam Vinatieri 48 yard field goal good

2001 vs oakland: 4 0:32 4 9 RAI 28 Adam Vinatieri 45 yard field goal good

same game: OT 6:35 3 5 RAI 5 Adam Vinatieri 23 yard field goal good

a complete list of Manning-post-season games decided by a field goal:

2012 Den vs Bal: OT 13:29 4 5 DEN 29 Justin Tucker 47 yard field goal good

2005 vs Pit: 4 0:21 4 2 PIT 28 Mike Vanderjagt 46 yard field goal no good.

2010 vs NYJ: 4 0:03 1 10 CLT 14 Nick Folk 32 yard field goal good

In games decided by a kicker, Tom Brady is 6-0 with an average QB rating of 79.4. Peyton Manning is 0-3 with an average QB rating of 95.7.

Tom Brady has a career playoff record in games not decided by a FG of 10-6. Peyton Manning has a career playoff record in games not decided by a kicker of 9-6.

Wow this is oVVnage beyond anything I've seen.

 

[SSOG]

I would say that virtually every QB is worse in the playoffs, as they're typically playing against better teams in the playoffs.

For fun...

QB rating drop in playoffs compared to regular season

Peyton Manning: 7.3

Tom Brady: 11.1

YPA drop in playoffs

Peyton Manning: 0.09

Tom Brady: 1.05

TD/G drop in playoffs

Peyton Manning: 0.42

Tom Brady: 0.45

Yds/G drop in playoffs

Peyton Manning: 28

Tom Brady: 28

Ints/G increase in playoffs

Peyton Manning: 0.07

Tom Brady: 0.13

So yes, Peyton Manning's stats have dropped in every category of note when comparing the playoffs vs the regular season. Of course, the same is true for Brady and probably the vast majority of QBs due to the increase in competition.

The interesting part is that statistically Brady's playoff drop is worse than Peyton's in every single category except yards per game, in which they're tied.

Drew Brees, Eli Manning, Aaron Rodgers, John Elway, Joe Montana, Brett Favre beg to differ. All had very similar (or higher) QB ratings and TD/INT ratings.

Regression and sample size. Several of those guys went from substantially worse than Manning in the regular season to mildly worse than Manning in the postseason. Others have sample sizes of just a handful of games. Also, Mark Sanchez has the 6th best postseason passer rating of all time, behind Starr, Brees, Warner, Montana, and Rodgers. Which is pretty much the only argument I feel I have to make on the subject of "raising one's game" vs. "small samples make funny things happen with greater frequency". Manning is the 4th highest rated regular season passer in history. He's the 11th highest rated postseason passer in history. His postseason rating is within a single point of Tom Brady's, Eli Manning's, and Troy Aikman's.

That is a good point. I'm going off memory here, but I believe it was Manning's fourth playoff run. He played KC and Denver and put up something like 8 td's in those two games, absolutely obliterating two horrific defenses. Up till that point he had been miserable in the playoffs.

The Broncos defense ranked 4th in total defense and 9th in points allowed in '03 and '04 (the seasons where Manning obliterated them in the playoffs). That's horrific?

As I said I was going off of memory. Good points, I'll withdraw. It doesn't say anything to the overall "Peyton Manning" story, but if you'd like to use those two games to prove how effective he is, have at it.

Four games. Two vs. the Broncos, one vs. the Chiefs, and the AFCCG where he absolutely destroyed the Jets' previously impenetrable pass defense. Not just four huge games, mind you- four of the best games any QB has ever had in the playoffs. I believe PFR ranked the playoff games, and all four placed in the top 10 all-time. I'll dig around on the pfr blog and post it over here- I seem to recall them having a lot of interesting information in the subject.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

I think it's fair to say that Manning has performed worse in the post-season than he has in the regular season.

However, we also have to compare to him to his peers to see if this reputation is deserved or not... How has Manning's reduction in performance compare to other contemporary QB's who have a sufficient number of games under their belt?

Really, the only comp is Brady, which was oulined above.

You want to know what the difference between Manning and Brady in the post-season is? Brady's kickers made clutch field goals, Manning's did not. Conversely, Brady's opposing kickers missed whereas Mannings opponents did not.

a complete list of Brady-post-season games decided by a field goal:

2011 AFCCG: 4 0:15 4 1 NWE 14 Billy Cundiff 32 yard field goal no good

2006 vs SD:4 0:08 2 10 NWE 36 Nate Kaeding 54 yard field goal no good

2003 Superbowl: 4 0:09 1 10 CAR 23 Adam Vinatieri 41 yard field goal good

2003: NE vs TEN: 4 4:11 4 8 OTI 27 Adam Vinatieri 46 yard field goal good

2001 Superbowl: 4 0:07 3 4 RAM 30 Adam Vinatieri 48 yard field goal good

2001 vs oakland: 4 0:32 4 9 RAI 28 Adam Vinatieri 45 yard field goal good

same game: OT 6:35 3 5 RAI 5 Adam Vinatieri 23 yard field goal good

a complete list of Manning-post-season games decided by a field goal:

2012 Den vs Bal: OT 13:29 4 5 DEN 29 Justin Tucker 47 yard field goal good

2005 vs Pit: 4 0:21 4 2 PIT 28 Mike Vanderjagt 46 yard field goal no good.

2010 vs NYJ: 4 0:03 1 10 CLT 14 Nick Folk 32 yard field goal good

In games decided by a kicker, Tom Brady is 6-0 with an average QB rating of 79.4. Peyton Manning is 0-3 with an average QB rating of 95.7.

Tom Brady has a career playoff record in games not decided by a FG of 10-6. Peyton Manning has a career playoff record in games not decided by a kicker of 9-6.

because that final kick is all that matters -- rest of the game is garbage time.

 

[SSOG]

I think it's fair to say that Manning has performed worse in the post-season than he has in the regular season.

However, we also have to compare to him to his peers to see if this reputation is deserved or not... How has Manning's reduction in performance compare to other contemporary QB's who have a sufficient number of games under their belt?

Really, the only comp is Brady, which was oulined above.

You want to know what the difference between Manning and Brady in the post-season is? Brady's kickers made clutch field goals, Manning's did not. Conversely, Brady's opposing kickers missed whereas Mannings opponents did not.

a complete list of Brady-post-season games decided by a field goal:

2011 AFCCG: 4 0:15 4 1 NWE 14 Billy Cundiff 32 yard field goal no good

2006 vs SD:4 0:08 2 10 NWE 36 Nate Kaeding 54 yard field goal no good

2003 Superbowl: 4 0:09 1 10 CAR 23 Adam Vinatieri 41 yard field goal good

2003: NE vs TEN: 4 4:11 4 8 OTI 27 Adam Vinatieri 46 yard field goal good

2001 Superbowl: 4 0:07 3 4 RAM 30 Adam Vinatieri 48 yard field goal good

2001 vs oakland: 4 0:32 4 9 RAI 28 Adam Vinatieri 45 yard field goal good

same game: OT 6:35 3 5 RAI 5 Adam Vinatieri 23 yard field goal good

a complete list of Manning-post-season games decided by a field goal:

2012 Den vs Bal: OT 13:29 4 5 DEN 29 Justin Tucker 47 yard field goal good

2005 vs Pit: 4 0:21 4 2 PIT 28 Mike Vanderjagt 46 yard field goal no good.

2010 vs NYJ: 4 0:03 1 10 CLT 14 Nick Folk 32 yard field goal good

In games decided by a kicker, Tom Brady is 6-0 with an average QB rating of 79.4. Peyton Manning is 0-3 with an average QB rating of 95.7.

Tom Brady has a career playoff record in games not decided by a FG of 10-6. Peyton Manning has a career playoff record in games not decided by a kicker of 9-6.

You missed one. In Manning's game against Miami, Vanderjagt missed a game-winning kick in overtime, and Miami won it with a TD on their next drive (which is why you missed it- final margin = 6 points). Came after Manning's defense allowed a TD with 40 seconds to tie it in the first place. Manning had a QB rating of 82 in that one.

 

[SSOG]

because that final kick is all that matters -- rest of the game is garbage time.

I don't get the complaint. In all instances, Moleculo is talking about games where the QBs play during the rest of the game was such that the game came down to a single kick at the end. Are you claiming Tom Brady played better in the games his kicker won for him (or the opposing kicker lost against him)? Because Moleculo did provide QB ratings and box scores to each particular game in case you wanted to test your theory.

 

[Truman]

I think it's fair to say that Manning has performed worse in the post-season than he has in the regular season.

However, we also have to compare to him to his peers to see if this reputation is deserved or not... How has Manning's reduction in performance compare to other contemporary QB's who have a sufficient number of games under their belt?

Really, the only comp is Brady, which was oulined above.

You want to know what the difference between Manning and Brady in the post-season is? Brady's kickers made clutch field goals, Manning's did not. Conversely, Brady's opposing kickers missed whereas Mannings opponents did not.

a complete list of Brady-post-season games decided by a field goal:

2011 AFCCG: 4 0:15 4 1 NWE 14 Billy Cundiff 32 yard field goal no good

2006 vs SD:4 0:08 2 10 NWE 36 Nate Kaeding 54 yard field goal no good

2003 Superbowl: 4 0:09 1 10 CAR 23 Adam Vinatieri 41 yard field goal good

2003: NE vs TEN: 4 4:11 4 8 OTI 27 Adam Vinatieri 46 yard field goal good

2001 Superbowl: 4 0:07 3 4 RAM 30 Adam Vinatieri 48 yard field goal good

2001 vs oakland: 4 0:32 4 9 RAI 28 Adam Vinatieri 45 yard field goal good

same game: OT 6:35 3 5 RAI 5 Adam Vinatieri 23 yard field goal good

a complete list of Manning-post-season games decided by a field goal:

2012 Den vs Bal: OT 13:29 4 5 DEN 29 Justin Tucker 47 yard field goal good

2005 vs Pit: 4 0:21 4 2 PIT 28 Mike Vanderjagt 46 yard field goal no good.

2010 vs NYJ: 4 0:03 1 10 CLT 14 Nick Folk 32 yard field goal good

In games decided by a kicker, Tom Brady is 6-0 with an average QB rating of 79.4. Peyton Manning is 0-3 with an average QB rating of 95.7.

Tom Brady has a career playoff record in games not decided by a FG of 10-6. Peyton Manning has a career playoff record in games not decided by a kicker of 9-6.

because that final kick is all that matters -- rest of the game is garbage time.

Well, no but the final kick will decide the final result and it is something which is mostly external to the QBs performance (QB will be involved in driving he team into position ).Brady is not a better QB because Billy Cundiff misses a 32 yard FG.

 

[menobrown]

I don't think anyone is arguing he's a great playoff QB, I think they're saying he performs like Tom Brady.

Yea they are real similar except for SB wins and stuff like Brady is the ALL TIME playoff leader in wins, best winning %, most game winning drives and host of other random stats.

Peyton on the other hand has I think one playoff game winning drive in his career. He's the all leader in 4th quarter comeback wins but only one happened in a playoff game.

Here's another thing about Peyton. When you think of him in the playoffs how many indelible memories can you come up with? Going crazy on a weak Chiefs team in the wild card round? I just can't come up with a lot of great Peyton playoff game and can't for the life of me understand how his playoff pedigree can be compared to Brady's.

Trent Dilfer is 5-1 in playoff games and 100% in Super Bowl appearances. That dwarfs Brady's percentages.

Wait, that destroyed one of my points. Shucks, I should have given myself an out and put a condition like "among elite".Man, I hate when people play the Dilfer card.

 

[cstu]

the main defense of manning has been to use career averages, in an effort to leverage his huge numbers from four games against kc and denver to overcome his other numbers.

The next step is to use stats like qb rating and yards per attempt, in an effort to double count yards per attempt (since it is factored in to qb rating). That also lets them put heavier weight on the first 11 games of bradys career, when guys like david patten and reche caldwell were starting at wr for the patriots en route to his three superbowl wins,nand he was using shorter, ball control passes outdoors.

Of course, it doesn't matter that he plays outdoors to manning supporters, because that's only a reasonable excuse when manning is unfairly asked to step outside in the cold. But when tom brady throws for 312 yards and runs for a td and throws one pick against the raiders in the snow game, that's only good for a 70.4 passer rating.

In fact, full game passer ratings have become the trendy way to hide mannings postseason playoff failures, because they allow his fans to hide the overtime interception, or the pick six in the superbowl against the saints, or the back to back turnovers on downs he had to end two more playoff games, or the mistakenly overturned polamalu interception that would have ended the game, but instead allowed him to lose the game twice more with boneheaded mistakes.

All that can be cast aside by saying, look, he only had those two bad games in new england - you know, the one with the 4 interceptions, and the other one, where, after setting a (then) nfl record for touchdown passes, he led the colts to three (3) total points. And then they can blame his defense, who obviously was to blame in the 41-0 rout the jets put on the colts, and who never bailed him out, say, when he threw three interceptions against kc, and the d held them to 6 points even with the turnovers. Or when he threw two more interceptions the following week against baltimore, and led the colts to zero (0) touchdowns on the game.



Because manning does all the good things and everyone around him is to blame for his terrible postseason luck.

I don't think anyone is going to say that Manning hasn't made some bad plays that cost his team playoff games, but there is absolutely an element of luck that determines who wins or loses. If Brady doesn't get the call on the tuck rule he doesn't win his first SB, or if his kicker doesn't make some big kicks.The best defense for Manning in the playoffs is that most of his losses have been on the road or by a close margin at home - he's had 5 home losses by less than 4 points.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

because that final kick is all that matters -- rest of the game is garbage time.

I don't get the complaint. In all instances, Moleculo is talking about games where the QBs play during the rest of the game was such that the game came down to a single kick at the end. Are you claiming Tom Brady played better in the games his kicker won for him (or the opposing kicker lost against him)? Because Moleculo did provide QB ratings and box scores to each particular game in case you wanted to test your theory.

I'm not going through every game, but you can look at the one that's been talked about ad nauseam as an example ---- it's first on the manning list, and since it's fresh in my mind I know it came down to a tucker kick because manning turned the ball over 3x, including a pick 6.but, you guys want to paint it as some unlucky break that the opposing kicker made a kick in a tight game.it shouldn't have gotten to that.on the other hand, being a pats fan, I remember that in the superbowl against teh heavily favored rams brady had them in a position to win on a fg if he could drive them down the field 50 yds in a minute --- which he did.I give vinatieri plenty of credit, as do all pats fans, but I also credit brady for that final drive to put him in position, as well as a game where he did not turn the ball over once, let alone 3x.if he turns it over 3x we're never talking about this one, because vinatieri never has a chance to win it.you act like peyton has no influence on these kicks --- he does, by putting these kickers on the field to beat him.btw, what does brady have to do with a manning thread?

 

[Truman]

because that final kick is all that matters -- rest of the game is garbage time.

I don't get the complaint. In all instances, Moleculo is talking about games where the QBs play during the rest of the game was such that the game came down to a single kick at the end. Are you claiming Tom Brady played better in the games his kicker won for him (or the opposing kicker lost against him)? Because Moleculo did provide QB ratings and box scores to each particular game in case you wanted to test your theory.

I'm not going through every game, but you can look at the one that's been talked about ad nauseam as an example ---- it's first on the manning list, and since it's fresh in my mind I know it came down to a tucker kick because manning turned the ball over 3x, including a pick 6.but, you guys want to paint it as some unlucky break that the opposing kicker made a kick in a tight game.it shouldn't have gotten to that.on the other hand, being a pats fan, I remember that in the superbowl against teh heavily favored rams brady had them in a position to win on a fg if he could drive them down the field 50 yds in a minute --- which he did.I give vinatieri plenty of credit, as do all pats fans, but I also credit brady for that final drive to put him in position, as well as a game where he did not turn the ball over once, let alone 3x.if he turns it over 3x we're never talking about this one, because vinatieri never has a chance to win it.you act like peyton has no influence on these kicks --- he does, by putting these kickers on the field to beat him.btw, what does brady have to do with a manning thread?

The Pats were in that game because of the tuck rule and they won because Vinatieri kicked a 45 yarder in the AFCC and a 48 yarder in the superbowl. The chances of that sequence of events all going the Pats way was astronomical and had very little to do with the QB. It was a fluke.In last year's AFCC game Brady threw a pick early and had one overturned by an offsides penalty to end the 3rd quarter. Despite his poor play the Pats were still in the game on the strength of their defense which had shut down Ray Rice . Brady recovered to lead a scoring drive and give the Pats the lead. On the next drive his defense picks off Joe Flacco, giving the Pats the ball at halfway with a 3 point lead and 7 minutes left. All the Pats need to do is hold on, by getting 20 yards they're in FG range and will force the Ravens to score a TD on their next possession. He goes for the home run ball and gets picked off again. In the final minute the Ravens lead a drive down to the Pats 14 yard line and Billy Cundiff has his first miss from under 35 yards all season. Brady kneels, another clutch playoff win in the books, all because a kicker missed a regulation field goal.

 

[SSOG]

Alright, I've been digging around on PFR's blog looking for the article I remembered reading, and found some other stuff worth reposting.

First off, I misremembered the article. It did not say that Manning had 4 of the top 10 playoff games of all time. It said that Manning's playoff games against Den, Den, and NYJ were three of the top 5 QB games since the merger. Note: not 3 of the top 5 postseason games. 3 of the top 5 games, period, full stop, end of sentence. They took every game played since the merger and adjusted for the average stats the defense in question allowed, and Manning's postseason undressing of some very good Denver defenses and an elite New York defense all rated among the 5 greatest games ever played. He was the only QB to get even a single postseason game in the top 20, and he had 3. In the top 5.

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=7234

Second, PFR looked at how offenses performed in the playoffs compared to their regular season averages, and to the regular season averages of the defenses they faced. Peyton Manning's offenses scored 4.5 points more than his opponents allowed, on average. Brady's offenses scored 4.7 more. Peyton Manning's offenses scored 1.9 points below their regular season averages. Brady's offenses scored 1.2 points below. This system also credited all points to the offense, which overrates Tom Brady, who at the time of the analysis had benefited from 4-5 more return scores than Manning.

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=8328

Finally, and most damning, we have playoff performances broken down by drive instead of by game. They looked at the 24 QBs with at least 8 playoff starts since 1980 (minus Simms, Theisman, Plunkett, and Danny White, due to lack of complete career data), and compared those 24 QBs on a per-drive basis. Of the 24 QBs, Peyton's average starting field position was the worst. Despite this, Manning ranked 2nd in yards per drive, 9th in points per drive, 11th in TDs per drive, and 6th in fewest punts per drive. All three stats were better than Brady. Despite his reputation for being mistake prone, only 6 QBs committed fewer turnovers per drive (yes, Brady was one of them, with 0.092 turnovers per drive to Manning's 0.100). Despite starting his drives 4 yards closer to the end zone, Brady has averaged fewer yards, fewer points, fewer touchdowns, and more punts. The difference in punts per drive is 0.085 in Manning's favor (Brady is 8.5% more likely to punt on any given drive). The difference in turnovers per drive is 0.008 in Brady's favor (Manning is 0.8% more likely to turn it over on any given drive). Over a 200 drive sample, we're talking the difference of Manning having 1 more pick... and Brady having 20 more punts. Both players had scored 44 TDs at that point, but 29 of Manning's TDs had to travel 70+ yards, compared to just 18 of Brady's. Brady had 8 TD drives of fewer than 40 yards, compared to just 1 for Manning. Plus, again, the disparity in the return TDs (even after Holiday's two returns, Brady leads Manning with 7 return TDs by his teammates vs. just 4 for Manning).

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=8700#more-8700

But yeah, Peyton is a choker, and Brady is clutch, and Peyton doesn't perform anywhere near as well as Tom Terrific in the postseason.

 

[BoomGoesTheDynamite]

Alright, I've been digging around on PFR's blog looking for the article I remembered reading, and found some other stuff worth reposting.

First off, I misremembered the article. It did not say that Manning had 4 of the top 10 playoff games of all time. It said that Manning's playoff games against Den, Den, and NYJ were three of the top 5 QB games since the merger. Note: not 3 of the top 5 postseason games. 3 of the top 5 games, period, full stop, end of sentence. They took every game played since the merger and adjusted for the average stats the defense in question allowed, and Manning's postseason undressing of some very good Denver defenses and an elite New York defense all rated among the 5 greatest games ever played. He was the only QB to get even a single postseason game in the top 20, and he had 3. In the top 5.

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=7234

Second, PFR looked at how offenses performed in the playoffs compared to their regular season averages, and to the regular season averages of the defenses they faced. Peyton Manning's offenses scored 4.5 points more than his opponents allowed, on average. Brady's offenses scored 4.7 more. Peyton Manning's offenses scored 1.9 points below their regular season averages. Brady's offenses scored 1.2 points below. This system also credited all points to the offense, which overrates Tom Brady, who at the time of the analysis had benefited from 4-5 more return scores than Manning.

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=8328

Finally, and most damning, we have playoff performances broken down by drive instead of by game. They looked at the 24 QBs with at least 8 playoff starts since 1980 (minus Simms, Theisman, Plunkett, and Danny White, due to lack of complete career data), and compared those 24 QBs on a per-drive basis. Of the 24 QBs, Peyton's average starting field position was the worst. Despite this, Manning ranked 2nd in yards per drive, 9th in points per drive, 11th in TDs per drive, and 6th in fewest punts per drive. All three stats were better than Brady. Despite his reputation for being mistake prone, only 6 QBs committed fewer turnovers per drive (yes, Brady was one of them, with 0.092 turnovers per drive to Manning's 0.100). Despite starting his drives 4 yards closer to the end zone, Brady has averaged fewer yards, fewer points, fewer touchdowns, and more punts. The difference in punts per drive is 0.085 in Manning's favor (Brady is 8.5% more likely to punt on any given drive). The difference in turnovers per drive is 0.008 in Brady's favor (Manning is 0.8% more likely to turn it over on any given drive). Over a 200 drive sample, we're talking the difference of Manning having 1 more pick... and Brady having 20 more punts. Both players had scored 44 TDs at that point, but 29 of Manning's TDs had to travel 70+ yards, compared to just 18 of Brady's. Brady had 8 TD drives of fewer than 40 yards, compared to just 1 for Manning. Plus, again, the disparity in the return TDs (even after Holiday's two returns, Brady leads Manning with 7 return TDs by his teammates vs. just 4 for Manning).

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=8700#more-8700

But yeah, Peyton is a choker, and Brady is clutch, and Peyton doesn't perform anywhere near as well as Tom Terrific in the postseason.

Postseason TD/INT ratio:Brady 41/20

Manning 32 /21

 

[SSOG]

because that final kick is all that matters -- rest of the game is garbage time.

I don't get the complaint. In all instances, Moleculo is talking about games where the QBs play during the rest of the game was such that the game came down to a single kick at the end. Are you claiming Tom Brady played better in the games his kicker won for him (or the opposing kicker lost against him)? Because Moleculo did provide QB ratings and box scores to each particular game in case you wanted to test your theory.

I'm not going through every game, but you can look at the one that's been talked about ad nauseam as an example ---- it's first on the manning list, and since it's fresh in my mind I know it came down to a tucker kick because manning turned the ball over 3x, including a pick 6.but, you guys want to paint it as some unlucky break that the opposing kicker made a kick in a tight game.it shouldn't have gotten to that.on the other hand, being a pats fan, I remember that in the superbowl against teh heavily favored rams brady had them in a position to win on a fg if he could drive them down the field 50 yds in a minute --- which he did.I give vinatieri plenty of credit, as do all pats fans, but I also credit brady for that final drive to put him in position, as well as a game where he did not turn the ball over once, let alone 3x.if he turns it over 3x we're never talking about this one, because vinatieri never has a chance to win it.you act like peyton has no influence on these kicks --- he does, by putting these kickers on the field to beat him.btw, what does brady have to do with a manning thread?

Oh yeah, Tom's play through the first 59 minutes was the reason New England had a chance to win it in the last minute. Tom and that dominant 11/19 for 93 yards really kept New England in the game. That 40 yard TD drive he led his team on in the first half was the stuff of legends, and of course he was instrumental to Ty Law's pick six. Seriously, if not for the lights out performance of Tom Brady lighting up the Rams to the tune of nearly 100 yards, there's no way Vinatieri could have had a shot to seal the deal. No way a choker like Peyton Manning could have hung the nearly-a-hundred yards it would have taken to keep up with the Greatest Show on Turf. In Manning's games where kickers let him down, he didn't play anywhere near that well. No, he was busy choking away the game with his turnovers and erratic play. I mean, he didn't ACTUALLY turn the ball over in either of the games where Vanderjagt honked the game-winner, but you can bet he was thinking about turning it over so hard that it might as well have been a turnover. Or three. Besides, whether he ACTUALLY turned the ball over is irrelevant to the discussion, because if enough people believe something, it has to be true, and obviously everyone knows he's a choker choking McChokerton straight from Choke Town with butterfingers and color blindness and a pigskin allergy, so the "fact" that he essentially produces one turnover more than Tom Brady per 200 drives is irrelevant.

 

[BoomGoesTheDynamite]

because that final kick is all that matters -- rest of the game is garbage time.

I don't get the complaint. In all instances, Moleculo is talking about games where the QBs play during the rest of the game was such that the game came down to a single kick at the end. Are you claiming Tom Brady played better in the games his kicker won for him (or the opposing kicker lost against him)? Because Moleculo did provide QB ratings and box scores to each particular game in case you wanted to test your theory.

I'm not going through every game, but you can look at the one that's been talked about ad nauseam as an example ---- it's first on the manning list, and since it's fresh in my mind I know it came down to a tucker kick because manning turned the ball over 3x, including a pick 6.but, you guys want to paint it as some unlucky break that the opposing kicker made a kick in a tight game.it shouldn't have gotten to that.on the other hand, being a pats fan, I remember that in the superbowl against teh heavily favored rams brady had them in a position to win on a fg if he could drive them down the field 50 yds in a minute --- which he did.I give vinatieri plenty of credit, as do all pats fans, but I also credit brady for that final drive to put him in position, as well as a game where he did not turn the ball over once, let alone 3x.if he turns it over 3x we're never talking about this one, because vinatieri never has a chance to win it.you act like peyton has no influence on these kicks --- he does, by putting these kickers on the field to beat him.btw, what does brady have to do with a manning thread?

The Pats were in that game because of the tuck rule and they won because Vinatieri kicked a 45 yarder in the AFCC and a 48 yarder in the superbowl. The chances of that sequence of events all going the Pats way was astronomical and had very little to do with the QB. It was a fluke.In last year's AFCC game Brady threw a pick early and had one overturned by an offsides penalty to end the 3rd quarter. Despite his poor play the Pats were still in the game on the strength of their defense which had shut down Ray Rice . Brady recovered to lead a scoring drive and give the Pats the lead. On the next drive his defense picks off Joe Flacco, giving the Pats the ball at halfway with a 3 point lead and 7 minutes left. All the Pats need to do is hold on, by getting 20 yards they're in FG range and will force the Ravens to score a TD on their next possession. He goes for the home run ball and gets picked off again. In the final minute the Ravens lead a drive down to the Pats 14 yard line and Billy Cundiff has his first miss from under 35 yards all season. Brady kneels, another clutch playoff win in the books, all because a kicker missed a regulation field goal.

Congrats on describing 2 of his 23 playoff games.

 

[SSOG]

Postseason TD/INT ratio:Brady 41/20Manning 32 /21

As of the offseason before 2011, Brady's offense had scored 44 TDs on 207 drives, while Manning's had scored 44 TDs on 200 drives. And Brady had 19 turnovers (INTs and fumbles) on 207 drives, vs. 20 for Manning. Personally, I fail to see why Manning should be penalized if he audibled to the run at the goal line and the back got the score- the goal is to get the football over the stripe. Since we're comparing stats, though...Brady 6.76 YPAManning 7.46 YPABrady 51.7% of drives end in a punt or QB turnoverManning 44.0% of drives end in a punt or QB turnoverBrady 24.6% of drives go 3-and-outManning 22.0% of drives go 3-and-out

 

[bostonfred]

I think it's fair to say that Manning has performed worse in the post-season than he has in the regular season.

However, we also have to compare to him to his peers to see if this reputation is deserved or not... How has Manning's reduction in performance compare to other contemporary QB's who have a sufficient number of games under their belt?

Really, the only comp is Brady, which was oulined above.

You want to know what the difference between Manning and Brady in the post-season is? Brady's kickers made clutch field goals, Manning's did not. Conversely, Brady's opposing kickers missed whereas Mannings opponents did not.

a complete list of Brady-post-season games decided by a field goal:

2011 AFCCG: 4 0:15 4 1 NWE 14 Billy Cundiff 32 yard field goal no good

2006 vs SD:4 0:08 2 10 NWE 36 Nate Kaeding 54 yard field goal no good

2003 Superbowl: 4 0:09 1 10 CAR 23 Adam Vinatieri 41 yard field goal good

2003: NE vs TEN: 4 4:11 4 8 OTI 27 Adam Vinatieri 46 yard field goal good

2001 Superbowl: 4 0:07 3 4 RAM 30 Adam Vinatieri 48 yard field goal good

2001 vs oakland: 4 0:32 4 9 RAI 28 Adam Vinatieri 45 yard field goal good

same game: OT 6:35 3 5 RAI 5 Adam Vinatieri 23 yard field goal good

a complete list of Manning-post-season games decided by a field goal:

2012 Den vs Bal: OT 13:29 4 5 DEN 29 Justin Tucker 47 yard field goal good

2005 vs Pit: 4 0:21 4 2 PIT 28 Mike Vanderjagt 46 yard field goal no good.

2010 vs NYJ: 4 0:03 1 10 CLT 14 Nick Folk 32 yard field goal good

In games decided by a kicker, Tom Brady is 6-0 with an average QB rating of 79.4. Peyton Manning is 0-3 with an average QB rating of 95.7.

Tom Brady has a career playoff record in games not decided by a FG of 10-6. Peyton Manning has a career playoff record in games not decided by a kicker of 9-6.

I like this new tactic by manning supporters. I don't know who first dug this up, but its been quotes by a couple different people recently. The problem is that it is a huge fallacy. In superbowl xxxvi, brady got the ball back in a tie game in overtime. He led the patriots on a memorable drive - when, ironically, the conventional wisdom was that they should take a knee - which ended with a game winning field goal. If vinatieri misses the kick, they would have gone to overtime. But it was an extremely important drive, be@ause the rams had just taken all of the momentum, scoring the last 14 points in a 17-17 tie. And an injured first year quarterback playing in the biggest game of his life played it perfectly. But according to this argument, this is exactly the same as manning getting sacked twice on their final possession, only to have bettis somehow fumble the ball on the one, giving the colts new life all the way back near midfield, have manning drive them into long field goal range, then inexplicably throw a bomb to wayne with time left on the clock instead of moving the chains and giving his kicker a field goal of less than 46 yards to tie the game and take them to overtime. Those two situations are night and day different, and its not just the result of the kick. If vinatieri misses that kick, and vanderjagt makes his, both games go to overtime, where the outcome might be the same. But by saying "the games were both decided by a field goal", you get to make a false equivalency and downplay mannings mistakes in the steelers game (where he had already thrown that game ending interception to troy polamalu earlier in the game, to boot, but had it overturned on instant replay. Google polamalu interception overturned if you're interested in reliving that).In fact, a surprising number of these were to break a tie where the patriots didn't need the kick to win. But sometimes, they needed the kick to stay in the game, like the infamous tuck rule game, where brady threw for over 300 yards and ran for a td in a blizzard. Most people remember the vinatieri kick to tie the game, which was a great kick to be sure. And he got lucky on the tuck rule call. For sure, although unlike the polamalu call above, the nfl still contends that the tuck rule was the right call, and continues to call it that way to this day. But the thing people forget in that game is that, after the call, brady still had to lead a game tying and game winning drive. Yes, both ended with field goals, but brady had to make both of those drives as a first year starter, playing in the snow and wind.

But by far the best is the superbowl against carolina. That was an incredible game - arguably the best superbowl ever. Vinatieri actually misses two field goals early in this game, but it would go on to be one of the great shootouts, as the patriots scored on an 80 yard drive, the panthers responded with a 95 yard drive, the pats had a 78 yard drive, the panthers kicked a field goal at the end of the second, the pats put together a 71 yard drive, the panthers had an 81 yarder, followed by an 85 yard bomb to muhammed, which gave the panthers a fourth quarter lead. Brady responded with a drive of his own - 68 yards, finishing with a touchdown pass to mike vrabel, which goes to show you the level of receiving talent he was working with. After making the two point conversion, the patriots led by a touchdown, but the panthers again led a 78 yard touchdown drive and tied it with a minute left in the highest scoring quarter in superbowl history. The panthers then made an inexplicable mistake, kicking the ball out of bounds on the kickoff, but troy brown returned the favor with an offensive pass interference call that left the patriots with 1st and 20 with less than a minute left and the possibility of giving the ball back to a red hot panthers offense in the same position to win the game on a field goal. Undaunted, brady passed the ball three straight times, for 13, 4 and 17 yards, to give vinatieri a chance to break the tie and win the game with 4 seconds left.

But that's pretty much the same thing as manning throwing an interception at midfield in overtime and having the ravens hit a field goal to win it. Its much easier to just bundle those games together and say that brady got lucky to win because his kicker won it for him, and manning got unlucky because the other guy kicked a field goal. Its much easier to ignore the mistake mannings made prior to that game losing field goal attempt, or the effort brady put in before his game winner, than it is to defend the mistakes. In fact, by including brady in the discussion, the idea is to get a halo effect, as though manning could have done the exact same things if it weren't for his bad luck with kickers. the mental gymnastics required to explain away mannings mistakes should be a good cue that even his biggest supporters have lost heart.

 

[kyoun1e]

This thread should have ended with the one word response of "Yes."KY

 

[bostonfred]

As of the offseason before 2011, Brady's offense had scored 44 TDs on 207 drives, while Manning's had scored 44 TDs on 200 drives. And Brady had 19 turnovers (INTs and fumbles) on 207 drives, vs. 20 for Manning. Personally, I fail to see why Manning should be penalized if he audibled to the run at the goal line and the back got the score- the goal is to get the football over the stripe.

Lets count the funny things ssog is trying to do here.1) as of the offseason before 2011, when manning didn't play, and brady went to the superbowl again, and then manning did play but had three turnovers, and brady had a phenomenal game in the playoffs, brady was just a little ahead of manning.2) just the facts, please. You claim that bradys offense had 44 tds, while brady had thrown for 40 tds, as of the time of whatever writing this was. Antowain smith and corey dillon had six postseason rushing tds combined, so there must be some discrepancies - probably fromyou cherry picking stats from previous seasons. 3) having your cake and eating it, too part 1 - you fail to see why manning should be pehalized for audibling to they run. Well, he shouldn't. But manning had edgerrin james for most of his postseason games, and has enjoyed multiple first round picks at running back, yet has gotten the same number of scoring drives. That is not proof that manning played better. Quite the opposite.4) having your cake and eating it, too part 2 - speaking of which, the narrative was always that brady won because he had a better defense. But wait - brady had the same number of scoring tds in the same number of drives? despite throwing to branch, givens, troy brown, david patten, reche caldwell, andre something, and mike vrabel? Who was manning throwing to again?5) manning had just one little turnover more than brady. Not counting this year, of course. And also, let's not look at when the turnovers happened or the impact they had on the game, like the superbowl pick six. Because all we care about is postseason totals. And by the way, that last bit is worth discussing, too. Why do we dissect the pick six in the broncos game and say it wasn't mannings fault, but give brady no benefit of the doubt that any of his turnovers were similar? When the time comes to compare them in aggregate, we just look at totals, but when we look at the specifics of mannings games, we have to make excuses for each bad play. But other than that, I've really enjoyed your statistical machinations to show something that I honestly believe you honestly believe to be true, even though its obvious to most outside observers that it isn't.

 

[BoomGoesTheDynamite]

Postseason TD/INT ratio:Brady 41/20Manning 32 /21

As of the offseason before 2011, Brady's offense had scored 44 TDs on 207 drives, while Manning's had scored 44 TDs on 200 drives. And Brady had 19 turnovers (INTs and fumbles) on 207 drives, vs. 20 for Manning. Personally, I fail to see why Manning should be penalized if he audibled to the run at the goal line and the back got the score- the goal is to get the football over the stripe. Since we're comparing stats, though...Brady 6.76 YPAManning 7.46 YPABrady 51.7% of drives end in a punt or QB turnoverManning 44.0% of drives end in a punt or QB turnoverBrady 24.6% of drives go 3-and-outManning 22.0% of drives go 3-and-out

why are you using stats from 2 years ago?Brady also has a higher % of TD per attempt and a lower % of INT per attempt. TD/attempt Brady 4.9% Manning 4.2%INT/ attempt Brady 2.4% Manning 2.8%I think its safe to say that they are both good QBs. Unfortunately for Manning the 8 one and dones does not compare favorably to Brady's 7 AFC Championship games. Say what you want about their personal stats but at the end of the day QBs are judged on winning.

 

[moleculo]

I think it's fair to say that Manning has performed worse in the post-season than he has in the regular season.

However, we also have to compare to him to his peers to see if this reputation is deserved or not... How has Manning's reduction in performance compare to other contemporary QB's who have a sufficient number of games under their belt?

Really, the only comp is Brady, which was oulined above.

You want to know what the difference between Manning and Brady in the post-season is? Brady's kickers made clutch field goals, Manning's did not. Conversely, Brady's opposing kickers missed whereas Mannings opponents did not.

a complete list of Brady-post-season games decided by a field goal:

2011 AFCCG: 4 0:15 4 1 NWE 14 Billy Cundiff 32 yard field goal no good

2006 vs SD:4 0:08 2 10 NWE 36 Nate Kaeding 54 yard field goal no good

2003 Superbowl: 4 0:09 1 10 CAR 23 Adam Vinatieri 41 yard field goal good

2003: NE vs TEN: 4 4:11 4 8 OTI 27 Adam Vinatieri 46 yard field goal good

2001 Superbowl: 4 0:07 3 4 RAM 30 Adam Vinatieri 48 yard field goal good

2001 vs oakland: 4 0:32 4 9 RAI 28 Adam Vinatieri 45 yard field goal good

same game: OT 6:35 3 5 RAI 5 Adam Vinatieri 23 yard field goal good

a complete list of Manning-post-season games decided by a field goal:

2012 Den vs Bal: OT 13:29 4 5 DEN 29 Justin Tucker 47 yard field goal good

2005 vs Pit: 4 0:21 4 2 PIT 28 Mike Vanderjagt 46 yard field goal no good.

2010 vs NYJ: 4 0:03 1 10 CLT 14 Nick Folk 32 yard field goal good

In games decided by a kicker, Tom Brady is 6-0 with an average QB rating of 79.4. Peyton Manning is 0-3 with an average QB rating of 95.7.

Tom Brady has a career playoff record in games not decided by a FG of 10-6. Peyton Manning has a career playoff record in games not decided by a kicker of 9-6.

I like this new tactic by manning supporters. I don't know who first dug this up, but its been quotes by a couple different people recently. The problem is that it is a huge fallacy. In superbowl xxxvi, brady got the ball back in a tie game in overtime. He led the patriots on a memorable drive - when, ironically, the conventional wisdom was that they should take a knee - which ended with a game winning field goal. If vinatieri misses the kick, they would have gone to overtime. But it was an extremely important drive, be@ause the rams had just taken all of the momentum, scoring the last 14 points in a 17-17 tie. And an injured first year quarterback playing in the biggest game of his life played it perfectly. But according to this argument, this is exactly the same as manning getting sacked twice on their final possession, only to have bettis somehow fumble the ball on the one, giving the colts new life all the way back near midfield, have manning drive them into long field goal range, then inexplicably throw a bomb to wayne with time left on the clock instead of moving the chains and giving his kicker a field goal of less than 46 yards to tie the game and take them to overtime. Those two situations are night and day different, and its not just the result of the kick. If vinatieri misses that kick, and vanderjagt makes his, both games go to overtime, where the outcome might be the same. But by saying "the games were both decided by a field goal", you get to make a false equivalency and downplay mannings mistakes in the steelers game (where he had already thrown that game ending interception to troy polamalu earlier in the game, to boot, but had it overturned on instant replay. Google polamalu interception overturned if you're interested in reliving that).In fact, a surprising number of these were to break a tie where the patriots didn't need the kick to win. But sometimes, they needed the kick to stay in the game, like the infamous tuck rule game, where brady threw for over 300 yards and ran for a td in a blizzard. Most people remember the vinatieri kick to tie the game, which was a great kick to be sure. And he got lucky on the tuck rule call. For sure, although unlike the polamalu call above, the nfl still contends that the tuck rule was the right call, and continues to call it that way to this day. But the thing people forget in that game is that, after the call, brady still had to lead a game tying and game winning drive. Yes, both ended with field goals, but brady had to make both of those drives as a first year starter, playing in the snow and wind.

But by far the best is the superbowl against carolina. That was an incredible game - arguably the best superbowl ever. Vinatieri actually misses two field goals early in this game, but it would go on to be one of the great shootouts, as the patriots scored on an 80 yard drive, the panthers responded with a 95 yard drive, the pats had a 78 yard drive, the panthers kicked a field goal at the end of the second, the pats put together a 71 yard drive, the panthers had an 81 yarder, followed by an 85 yard bomb to muhammed, which gave the panthers a fourth quarter lead. Brady responded with a drive of his own - 68 yards, finishing with a touchdown pass to mike vrabel, which goes to show you the level of receiving talent he was working with. After making the two point conversion, the patriots led by a touchdown, but the panthers again led a 78 yard touchdown drive and tied it with a minute left in the highest scoring quarter in superbowl history. The panthers then made an inexplicable mistake, kicking the ball out of bounds on the kickoff, but troy brown returned the favor with an offensive pass interference call that left the patriots with 1st and 20 with less than a minute left and the possibility of giving the ball back to a red hot panthers offense in the same position to win the game on a field goal. Undaunted, brady passed the ball three straight times, for 13, 4 and 17 yards, to give vinatieri a chance to break the tie and win the game with 4 seconds left.

But that's pretty much the same thing as manning throwing an interception at midfield in overtime and having the ravens hit a field goal to win it. Its much easier to just bundle those games together and say that brady got lucky to win because his kicker won it for him, and manning got unlucky because the other guy kicked a field goal. Its much easier to ignore the mistake mannings made prior to that game losing field goal attempt, or the effort brady put in before his game winner, than it is to defend the mistakes. In fact, by including brady in the discussion, the idea is to get a halo effect, as though manning could have done the exact same things if it weren't for his bad luck with kickers. the mental gymnastics required to explain away mannings mistakes should be a good cue that even his biggest supporters have lost heart.

You could have just said you prefer a collection of decidedly one-sided narratives to objective statistics. Its this outright rejection of cold, hard numbers that is preventing this country from moving ahead on things like climate change, gun regulation, teaching evolution, and a whole host of other issues.I don't have time to write a corresponding novel, but let me leave you with this. Over the past two years, both QB's played the Ravens in the playoffs. Brady went 22-36 for 239 yards, 0 td's and 2 ints. Patriots win on a missed Raven FG. Manning goes 28-43, 290 yards, 3 TD and 2 ints. Broncos lose on made Ravens FG. I'm sure you will tell me that there is some kind of false equivalency here and you are right. I doubt we will ever find an example of the Patriots surrendering a game tying 70 yard TD in the waning seconds.

 

[moleculo]

As of the offseason before 2011, Brady's offense had scored 44 TDs on 207 drives, while Manning's had scored 44 TDs on 200 drives. And Brady had 19 turnovers (INTs and fumbles) on 207 drives, vs. 20 for Manning. Personally, I fail to see why Manning should be penalized if he audibled to the run at the goal line and the back got the score- the goal is to get the football over the stripe.

Lets count the funny things ssog is trying to do here.1) as of the offseason before 2011, when manning didn't play, and brady went to the superbowl again, and then manning did play but had three turnovers, and brady had a phenomenal game in the playoffs, brady was just a little ahead of manning.2) just the facts, please. You claim that bradys offense had 44 tds, while brady had thrown for 40 tds, as of the time of whatever writing this was. Antowain smith and corey dillon had six postseason rushing tds combined, so there must be some discrepancies - probably fromyou cherry picking stats from previous seasons. 3) having your cake and eating it, too part 1 - you fail to see why manning should be pehalized for audibling to they run. Well, he shouldn't. But manning had edgerrin james for most of his postseason games, and has enjoyed multiple first round picks at running back, yet has gotten the same number of scoring drives. That is not proof that manning played better. Quite the opposite.4) having your cake and eating it, too part 2 - speaking of which, the narrative was always that brady won because he had a better defense. But wait - brady had the same number of scoring tds in the same number of drives? despite throwing to branch, givens, troy brown, david patten, reche caldwell, andre something, and mike vrabel? Who was manning throwing to again?5) manning had just one little turnover more than brady. Not counting this year, of course. And also, let's not look at when the turnovers happened or the impact they had on the game, like the superbowl pick six. Because all we care about is postseason totals. And by the way, that last bit is worth discussing, too. Why do we dissect the pick six in the broncos game and say it wasn't mannings fault, but give brady no benefit of the doubt that any of his turnovers were similar? When the time comes to compare them in aggregate, we just look at totals, but when we look at the specifics of mannings games, we have to make excuses for each bad play. But other than that, I've really enjoyed your statistical machinations to show something that I honestly believe you honestly believe to be true, even though its obvious to most outside observers that it isn't.

If you can't demonstrate something to be true with a little data, pardon me for not accepting it.BF> there are some pretty compelling statistics here which paint a picture of Manning and Brady having fairly similar post-season stats. It's on you now to demonstrate that Manning is worse. Show me the numbers, don't tell me the stories. I have a hard time accepting Fred from Boston can be objective wrt Brady so I won't give your narratives any weight. I will, however, consider any cold, hard, stats you bring to the table. So, whacha got?

 

[bostonfred]

But by far the best is the superbowl against carolina. That was an incredible game - arguably the best superbowl ever. Vinatieri actually misses two field goals early in this game, but it would go on to be one of the great shootouts, as the patriots scored on an 80 yard drive, the panthers responded with a 95 yard drive, the pats had a 78 yard drive, the panthers kicked a field goal at the end of the second, the pats put together a 71 yard drive, the panthers had an 81 yarder, followed by an 85 yard bomb to muhammed, which gave the panthers a fourth quarter lead. Brady responded with a drive of his own - 68 yards, finishing with a touchdown pass to mike vrabel, which goes to show you the level of receiving talent he was working with. After making the two point conversion, the patriots led by a touchdown, but the panthers again led a 78 yard touchdown drive and tied it with a minute left in the highest scoring quarter in superbowl history. The panthers then made an inexplicable mistake, kicking the ball out of bounds on the kickoff, but troy brown returned the favor with an offensive pass interference call that left the patriots with 1st and 20 with less than a minute left and the possibility of giving the ball back to a red hot panthers offense in the same position to win the game on a field goal. Undaunted, brady passed the ball three straight times, for 13, 4 and 17 yards, to give vinatieri a chance to break the tie and win the game with 4 seconds left.

I doubt we will ever find an example of the Patriots surrendering a game tying 70 yard TD in the waning seconds.

This is the kind of stuff that makes you look silly.