Does this exist anywhere in the FBG world? (1 Viewer)

[Banger]

The other day I read through some of the "Examing Rookie Performance" articles and then a couple days later I stumbled on the Historical Stats section of the Stats page which has all fantasy points by position back to 1990 (kudos on that, it's awesome). I thought the rookie articles were good but it got me thinking about how great it would be if could see a comparison of the preseason rank to end of season rank for the entire population and not just rook's. I, like most on the site, am in that time of year where I'm thinking about player ranks, ADP and players to target and avoid and thought this could be a very useful tool. It could be as simple as adding a column to the far right on the stats page called PSR = preseason rank or something like that (you already have a VBD column).

That data in and of itself won't necessarily be able to give a lot of information due to the number of variables as to why the particular player exceeded/fell short of expectations but it would enable FF'ers to compare similar situations to years past and get a better guess on situations to target or avoid. Particularly in the mid/later rounds where you can find that diamond in the rough that can make your year.

I've bookmarked a couple archived projections pages from years past and I can see some projections so I know some data exists. Just getting access to that archived data would be huge. I know you guys are in the busiest time of the year right now but thought this is something that could be useful if not for this year maybe the future. Or maybe I'm the only one interested in something like this.

Anyway, thx for the great site and keep up the good work...

Banger

 

[Jeff Haseley]

I'm working on releasing data pertaining to this. Here is data on 2007 rank vs. 2008 pre-season rank for WRs. Sorted by difference in rank.

2007 Rank	2008 PS Rank	Diff rank	Wide Receiver105				  31				  74	Waker, Javon100				  29				  71	Harrison, Marvin73				  37				  36	Hackett, DJ77				  44				  33	Clayton, Mark76				  48				  28	Ginn, Ted61				  39				  22	Gonzalez, Anthony67				  47				  20	Rice, Sidney33				  14				  19	Williams, Roy69				  50				  19	Johnson, Bryant22				   6				  16	Johnson, Andre39				  23				  16	Coles, Laveranues32				  18				  14	Evans, Lee35				  21				  14	Johnson, Calvin40				  30				  10	Moss, Santana16				   7				   9	Smith, Steve31				  22				   9	Ward, Hines19				  11				   8	Boldin, Anquan24				  16				   8	Bowe, Dwayne53				  45				   8	Jackson, Vincent48				  43				   5	Branch, Deion29				  25				   4	Chambers, Chris30				  26				   4	Driver, Donald13				  10				   3	Holt, Torry41				  38				   3	Bruce, Isaac4				   2				   2	Wayne, Reggie38				  36				   2	Brown, Reggie18				  17				   1	Holmes, Santonio25				  24				   1	Cotchery, Jerricho1				   1				   0	Moss, Randy5				   5				   0	Fitzgerald, Larry49				  49				   0	Stallworth, Donte2				   3				  -1	Owens, Terrell3				   4				  -1	Edwards, Braylon7				   8				  -1	Houshmandzadeh, TJ8				   9				  -1	Colston, Marques10				 12				  -2	Burress, Plaxico9				 13				  -4	Marshall, Brandon11				 15				  -4	Welker, Wes37				 41				  -4	Porter, Jerry26				 32				  -6	Berrian, Bernard34				 40				  -6	Crayton, Patrick12				 19				  -7	Jennings, Greg21				 28				  -7	Galloway, Joey14				 27				-13	White, Roddy20				 33				-13	Mason, Derrick6				 20				-14	Johnson, Chad28				 42				-14	Williams, Reggie17				 35				-18	Curtis, Kevin15				 34				-19	Engram, Bobby27				 46				-19	Burleson, Nate

 

[Pickle Rody]

I believe what Banger is asking for is a comparison of pre-season rank vs. end of season rank in the same year. Meaning that last years end of season rank vs. this years pre-season rank is not quite what he is looking for. Sort of a "how acurate were pre-season rankings compared to actual end of season rankings?" This is something that Joe and David have been reluctant to do for various reasons, which they have stated before in other threads, but which elude me right now.

I think each of us could do this on our own if we save final pre-season rankings in a file to review later and compare to end of season data. Rankings and projections get manipulated throughout the year within the site and all the tools we use (DD, LD, TD etc.) Without saving the last pre-season rankings to a separate file, they get wiped out each week with new data and projections.

I may be a little off here, so I would not take my post as completely accurate, but I think I'm on the right track.

Anyone is welcome to correct me if I am wrong.

Also, I'm not quite sure what benefit it is to know what last years end of season ranks vs. this years pre-season ranks will provide. Sorry Wheelhouse, I just don't see the benefit of your study, although I am sure there must be one or else you wouldn't be spending the time compiling the data. Care to provide some background, or will we have to wait until the full article is released?

 

[Modog814]

I guess the study could give you an overvalued/undervalued view.

For example, if you see that J. Walkers Preseason rank is 74 spots higher than his previous years ending rank, then you could see if you could justify such a jump. I.e. injuries last year.

Or Chad Johnson with a difference of -14 shows he may be undervalued.

I think it would provide just another angle to look at, but you probably won't find anything new.

 

[Modog814]

Here is something I quickly threw together for the WR's FBG Preseason vs. Actual for 2007:

Actual	PreSeason	Name	Diff16	1	Steve Smith	156	2	Chad Johnson	4100	3	Marvin Harrison	972	4	Terrell Owens	-24	5	Reggie Wayne	-133	6	Roy Williams	275	7	Larry Fitzgerald	-27	8	T.J. Houshmandzadeh	-1105	9	Javon Walker	9632	10	Lee Evans	2219	11	Anquan Boldin	822	12	Andre Johnson	1013	13	Torry Holt	030	14	Donald Driver	168	15	Marques Colston	-710	16	Plaxico Burress	-640	17	Santana Moss	2318	18	Santonio Holmes	03	19	Braylon Edwards	-1648	20	Deion Branch	2835	21	Calvin Johnson	1439	22	Laveranues Coles	1725	23	Jerricho Cotchery	253	24	Vincent Jackson	2938	25	Reggie Brown	1326	26	Bernard Berrian	021	27	Joey Galloway	-629	28	Chris Chambers	131	29	Hines Ward	21	30	Randy Moss	-2977	31	Mark Clayton	4641	32	Isaac Bruce	973	33	D.J. Hackett	4068	34	Darrell Jackson	3412	36	Greg Jennings	-2417	37	Kevin Curtis	-2044	38	Ronald Curry	671	39	Devery Henderson	3237	41	Jerry Porter	-49	42	Brandon Marshall	-3362	43	Muhsin Muhammad	19133	44	Eddie Kennison	8920	45	Derrick Mason	-2591	46	Brandon Jones	45123	47	Jacoby Jones	7652	48	Bobby Wade	4104	49	Demetrius Williams	5597	50	Troy Williamson	4711	51	Wes Welker	-4014	52	Roddy White	-3843	53	Arnaz Battle	-1075	54	Drew Bennett	2165	55	Mike Furrey	1045	56	Roydell Williams	-11103	57	Joe Horn	4658	59	Michael Jenkins	-154	60	James Jones	-666	61	Ernest Wilford	555	62	Antwaan Randle El	-746	63	Amani Toomer	-1724	64	Dwayne Bowe	-40143	65	Dwayne Jarrett	7869	66	Bryant Johnson	315	67	Bobby Engram	-5234	68	Patrick Crayton	-34102	69	Cedrick Wilson	3351	70	Dennis Northcutt	-19107	71	Craig Davis	3656	72	Joe Jurevicius	-1672	73	Josh Reed	-170	74	Marty Booker	-4149	75	Steve Smith	74147	76	Peerless Price	7189	77	Samie Parker	1285	78	Chris Henry	781	79	Roscoe Parrish	296	80	Keary Colbert	1660	81	Drew Carter	-2174	82	Matt Jones	-8166	83	Brandon Lloyd	8382	84	Brad Smith	-227	85	Nate Burleson	-5836	86	Kevin Walter	-5063	87	Nate Washington	-24127	88	Mark Bradley	3967	89	Sidney Rice	-2295	90	Eric Moulds	5164	91	Tab Perry	73138	92	Malcom Floyd	4647	93	Brandon Stokley	-46124	94	Maurice Stovall	3042	95	David Patten	-5380	96	Derek Hagan	-1690	97	Devin Hester	-761	98	Anthony Gonzalez	-37112	99	Sinorice Moss	13108	100	Terrance Copper	892	101	Jason Avant	-9126	102	Reche Caldwell	2428	103	Reggie Williams	-7594	104	Sam Hurd	-10132	105	Ashley Lelie	2723	106	Shaun McDonald	-83175	107	Travis Taylor	68170	109	Jason Hill	6179	110	Laurent Robinson	-31115	111	Hank Baskett	4141	113	Mike Williams	28150	115	Chris Davis	35172	115	Chris Davis	57110	116	Justin McCareins	-684	117	Ruvell Martin	-33114	118	Antonio Chatman	-4136	119	Josh Cribbs	17152	120	Johnnie Lee Higgins	32148	121	Aaron Moorehead	27113	122	James Thrash	-957	124	Ike Hilliard	-6798	125	Michael Clayton	-27153	126	Dante Hall	27121	128	Rashied Davis	-788	129	Greg Lewis	-41125	130	Sean Morey	-5101	131	Koren Robinson	-3086	132	Robert Ferguson	-4664	133	Jabar Gaffney	-6993	134	Jeff Webb	-41156	135	Dane Looker	2150	136	Justin Gage	-8659	137	Andre Davis	-78

 

[ImTheScientist]

So basically its a crap shoot

 

[Banger]

I believe what Banger is asking for is a comparison of pre-season rank vs. end of season rank in the same year. Meaning that last years end of season rank vs. this years pre-season rank is not quite what he is looking for. Sort of a "how acurate were pre-season rankings compared to actual end of season rankings?" This is something that Joe and David have been reluctant to do for various reasons, which they have stated before in other threads, but which elude me right now.

I think each of us could do this on our own if we save final pre-season rankings in a file to review later and compare to end of season data. Rankings and projections get manipulated throughout the year within the site and all the tools we use (DD, LD, TD etc.) Without saving the last pre-season rankings to a separate file, they get wiped out each week with new data and projections.

I may be a little off here, so I would not take my post as completely accurate, but I think I'm on the right track.

Anyone is welcome to correct me if I am wrong.

Also, I'm not quite sure what benefit it is to know what last years end of season ranks vs. this years pre-season ranks will provide. Sorry Wheelhouse, I just don't see the benefit of your study, although I am sure there must be one or else you wouldn't be spending the time compiling the data. Care to provide some background, or will we have to wait until the full article is released?

You're absolutely right Ruff. For instance, I believe I have the link for 2006 projections saved (link nor site has the date) the first column is the preseason rank and 2nd is their end of year rank and the players names correspond to the preseason rank1 2 LJ

2 1 LT

3 28 SA

4 9 Rudi

5 25 R. Brown

6 3 SJax

7 5 Parker

8 55 Lamont

9 39 Caddy

10 26 Willis

I'm not looking for an accuracy measure or in the past people wanted to see how well each of the staff predicted players and I know there was some debate around that which is understandable. I'm just looking for a consensus ranking before the season that I can compare to after the season. For example R. Brown jumps out at me from the list above, he was a 2nd year player in '06 and was ranked 5th going into the year due to "natural progression" assumption, yes he was hurt but there were a lot of other factors going on there. In '08 I look at the rankings and one guy I can equate his situation to is Lynch. I'm luke warm on the guy due in large part to his surroundings, he's being ranked as a late #1 pick could see him stumbling a bit but that's really for another thread.

It's kind of a look back at the group think and what went wrong or how did we miss this guy?

 

[ConstruxBoy]

My contest from a couple of years ago showed this for that season.

linky

 

[Banger]

So basically its a crap shoot

Not really IMO. A couple guys jump off the page at me that weren't injured. Evans and Edwards for different reasons. Evans was a talented wr that people assumed was going to take the next step due to his talent, is that Bowe this year? Edwards was a talented WR coming off an injury with a perceived bad supporting cast but a big investment in their line, are there players in similar situations this year or perhaps next year?

 

[Banger]

My contest from a couple of years ago showed this for that season.

linky

that's great stuff...