Donald Brown still in cheatsheet? (1 Viewer)

[The Scorpion]

I see that Donald Brown is the #20 RB, while Ballard is #43. Brown is out so I assume this will updated soon, but do you think he moves up or down? I personally think in a non-PPR that is about right, although you could argue he could score a few more points than say Martin or Mcgahee which would put him at 18.

Thoughts?

 

[JoeyJoeJoeJr]

I see that Donald Brown is the #20 RB, while Ballard is #43. Brown is out so I assume this will updated soon, but do you think he moves up or down? I personally think in a non-PPR that is about right, although you could argue he could score a few more points than say Martin or Mcgahee which would put him at 18. Thoughts?

saw that, and assumed it was already submitted for web publishing before the news came out. i think its fair to move him up based on volume alone, but its hard to predict. say he gets 15-18 touches. if you extrapolate his current YPC, which is terrible, you get something like 34 yards, 1 reception for 10 yards. lets call that the floor. i think if he gets the volume, however, his YPC wont look so bad. something closer to 3-4 yards. so a fair ceiling would be 60 yards rushing 1 or 2 receptions for 15 yards, anda chance at a TD. pretty close to where Brown is ranked.depends on if you believe he has the talent to take advantage of his opportunity. personally i dont know enough about him to say, but im valuing him like a flex option until he shows (for better or worse) otherwise.

 

[doeseatplace]

Bloom and Maurile's projections note the Brown injury, but aren't optimistic about Ballard's performance

 

[SameSongNDance]

PPR or standard, it doesn't matter, Brown wasn't catching passes.

I would rank him lower, in the 25-30 range, for several reasons.

On the plus, he WILL get GL carries. This is huge, bust doesn't exactly offset the negatives I'm about to follow this up with. Brown owners have cringed every time he got subbed out at the GL.

Conversely, we don't know how many snaps he'll see. I doubt he sees 71% of the snaps like Brown did last week. I'm assuming will see a decent dose of MeMo with a little Carter sprinkled in. Regardless, nothing says he's guaranteed 20 touches like Brown had become accustmed to receiving over the past two weeks. I'd play it safe and assume he gets around 15.

Regardless of what the experts having been saying, predicting Brown's impending doom and to stash Ballard, Ballard has looked like ####. Part of the blame could be put on the weak interior of the OL, but he has looked like a plodder up until this point. "Experts" blamed Brown for trying to bounce it to the outside too often, but realistically he had no choice. Maybe Ballard just needs to get into some kind of rhythm, but until I see him actually run for more than 2 YPC, I don't know if I can trust him.

Anyway, temper expectations but you can indeed flex if you're desperate. If it weren't for the match up though, I'd be steering clear.

 

[gradin123]

PPR or standard, it doesn't matter, Brown wasn't catching passes.I would rank him lower, in the 25-30 range, for several reasons.On the plus, he WILL get GL carries. This is huge, bust doesn't exactly offset the negatives I'm about to follow this up with. Brown owners have cringed every time he got subbed out at the GL.Conversely, we don't know how many snaps he'll see. I doubt he sees 71% of the snaps like Brown did last week. I'm assuming will see a decent dose of MeMo with a little Carter sprinkled in. Regardless, nothing says he's guaranteed 20 touches like Brown had become accustmed to receiving over the past two weeks. I'd play it safe and assume he gets around 15.Regardless of what the experts having been saying, predicting Brown's impending doom and to stash Ballard, Ballard has looked like ####. Part of the blame could be put on the weak interior of the OL, but he has looked like a plodder up until this point. "Experts" blamed Brown for trying to bounce it to the outside too often, but realistically he had no choice. Maybe Ballard just needs to get into some kind of rhythm, but until I see him actually run for more than 2 YPC, I don't know if I can trust him.Anyway, temper expectations but you can indeed flex if you're desperate. If it weren't for the match up though, I'd be steering clear.

The snap count on the RBs through the first 3 weeks saw Brown get between 40-50%, Moore get 25-35% and Ballard get about 15%. I would expect a distribution like that this week with Balalrd in Brown's role and Carter in Ballard's role. Carter is not a guy brought in by this regime and they don't seem high on him so I don't think he is much of a threat to steal carries. Depending on the game situation Moore could steal a lot of snaps but that is only if you think the Colts will be playing from behind against the Jets. The more I have studied Ballard the more I see has the making of a good professional RB. He can block well, he can receive well, he can get tough yards and he is durable. He isn't the best outside of the tackles but he is quick enough to exploit holes. He isn't a burner but I don't think he is a plodder either. I would say his longterm potential would to be an Ahmad Bradshaw style back but more durable.He gained infamy for tripping on his first 40 yard dash at the combine and then ran a 4.65. But, on his pro day he ran two 40 yard dashs of 4.56 and 4.57. Not great but not bad. I think the thing that works for Ballard right now is he will face some weaker run defenses while he starts and with the way Luck is playing you have to know teams are more concerned about stopping Wayne then they are about stopping the run game. I think that is why Brown's stats have been pointing up recently.