Don't sleep on Donte Moncrief: Draft Day steal (2 Viewers)

[Soulfly3]

To me, Dorsett was taken to "replace" Moncrief... and this week has the perfect opportunity to do so.

Those punt fumbles were brutal, and may cost him a bit, but the injury to TY couldnt have "come at a better time" for Dorsett...

He'll likely be drawing weakest coverage, and w that speed and route running, the guy may explode.

 

[MattFancy]

Does Moncrief have value even with a healthy TY Hilton back in say optimistically a couple of weeks?

That's what I'm trying to figure out. He's on the wire in one of my leagues, just trying to decide what I should spend on him. Right now, I would drop Lockett for him, but I'm not sure I really like Moncrief. If Hilton isn't out for more than a week or so, does he retain the long-term value? He would be the clear #3 behind Hilton and Johnson, plus Allen seems to be a big time red zone target. So IMO, unless you really think Hilton may be out longer or that Johnson is nearing the end, I'm not sure exactly what Moncrief can do going forward.

 

[Lott's Fingertip]

I believe I read that Moncrief had 10 targets while Hilton was still in the game, so it would seem that he is already a good-sized part of the offense.

 

[jurrassic]

Does Moncrief have value even with a healthy TY Hilton back in say optimistically a couple of weeks?

That's what I'm trying to figure out. He's on the wire in one of my leagues, just trying to decide what I should spend on him. Right now, I would drop Lockett for him, but I'm not sure I really like Moncrief. If Hilton isn't out for more than a week or so, does he retain the long-term value? He would be the clear #3 behind Hilton and Johnson, plus Allen seems to be a big time red zone target. So IMO, unless you really think Hilton may be out longer or that Johnson is nearing the end, I'm not sure exactly what Moncrief can do going forward.

Being the clear #3 in some offenses is more than enough. I look at Moncrief as an educated chance. Hilton is already banged up and none of the question marks surrounding Johnson coming into the season were answered in week 1. Everyone was touting Luck as a surefire first round pick with the potential to throw 50 tds this year. Those have to go to someone and simply put no one on Indy's roster is that dominant from a receiving perspective.

 

[Phenomena]

I believe I read that Moncrief had 10 targets while Hilton was still in the game, so it would seem that he is already a good-sized part of the offense.

Bingo.

 

[FGITLOTR]

Crazy question: in a competitive non ppr, is it crazy to drop Andre Johnson for Moncrief? Johnson looked awful and I just can't see him playing well moving forward.

I can't drop anyone else on my roster or I would. Anyone else in a similar predicament?

 

[cstu]

Crazy question: in a competitive non ppr, is it crazy to drop Andre Johnson for Moncrief? Johnson looked awful and I just can't see him playing well moving forward.

I can't drop anyone else on my roster or I would. Anyone else in a similar predicament?

I prefer Moncrief to AJ, but would hate to drop AJ even though he looks done.

 

[Willie Neslon]

Crazy question: in a competitive non ppr, is it crazy to drop Andre Johnson for Moncrief?

I think so, yes. I don't buy that Andre looked "done". It was a physical game in a tough matchup and environment. Much better days ahead.

 

[DeaLerZ]

I believe I read that Moncrief had 10 targets while Hilton was still in the game, so it would seem that he is already a good-sized part of the offense.

Bingo.

This could have had more to do with game flow against the bills tough secondary, and Moncrief having the better match up... i stayed away from him because I could not determine his appropriate value, and didn't want to use too much of my waiver spending on him

 

[Grahamburn]

It doesn't really get any easier for this passing game with the Jets up next. Buffalo and NY are probably the best two pass defenses in the game.

There are some matchups with shootout potential following though. I might wait one more week and buy low on all these guys.

 

[FGITLOTR]

Thx guys!

 

[Gr00vus]

A guy in one of my leagues just spent a little over 50% of his free agent bidding points for the season on Moncrief. Just one information point for those trying to get a feel for how people are valuing this guy.

 

[urbanhack]

A guy in one of my leagues just spent a little over 50% of his free agent bidding points for the season on Moncrief. Just one information point for those trying to get a feel for how people are valuing this guy.

I spent 25%, but I have Dez.

 

[Omniscient Deity]

I spent 40% in a few leagues, 50% in one where my WR core has been destroyed by injuries. May regret it, but I'll regret it more if he puts up top 30 WR production the rest of the way.

He still looks raw to me on tape, definitely not a polished WR at all. Thankfully having an elite QB throwing you the ball can makeup for a lot of weaknesses a receiver may have.

 

[Grahamburn]

The WR getting the majority of targets from Andrew Luck is a valuable fantasy commodity. I won't be starting Moncrief on MNF, but it will be fun to see how he responds to the challenge.

 

[Jack White]

I spent 40% in a few leagues, 50% in one where my WR core has been destroyed by injuries. May regret it, but I'll regret it more if he puts up top 30 WR production the rest of the way.

He still looks raw to me on tape, definitely not a polished WR at all. Thankfully having an elite QB throwing you the ball can makeup for a lot of weaknesses a receiver may have.

Those are bold bids. One thing in your favor is that you get more value out of your dollars because you'll have Moncrief for the rest of the season. And especially if Andre is washed up.

 

[jurrassic]

A guy in one of my leagues just spent a little over 50% of his free agent bidding points for the season on Moncrief. Just one information point for those trying to get a feel for how people are valuing this guy.

I spent 25%, but I have Dez.

Same. I'm trying to patch the dam. At least he plays on a prolific offense

 

[HULLOBUDMAN]

Spent about 15% in my ppr league

 

[Steed]

So who does revis lockdown? Andre or Donte?

 

[nittanylion]

Coming out of a $ 14-Team PPR Auction, I thought my WR corps was untouchable:

Dez, Andre Johnson, Stevie Johnson, Allen Robinson, Jeremy Maclin and Markus Wheaton. Post Week 1, more questions than answers. Although I won this week, and scored 3rd-most points...with a paper thin waiver wire, he was the marquee guy. I engaged my gag reflex and broke the bank to acquire him. No idea why was left in the pool when the auction was over - Brandon Coleman, James Jones, Cole Beasley and Philip Dorsett were all purchased - but at this point, I have to consider that he might be filling 2 holes in what I thought was an untouchable group, on a Team that has a legitimate shot to win wire-to-wire...

...70%

 

[TZMarkie]

Similar problem in one start 3WR league I'm in.

I am starting Demaryius, Allen Robinson and John Brown.

I have no 4th WR as I have the other slots invested in RBs etc.

I had a 4th WR (DeVante Parker) but things looked bleak after this week and I need "something", and the DT injury scare didn't help matters.

So I picked up Moncrief.

Truth be known, I just don't see any long term production bigger than say WR3-ish numbers, at least when Hilton and Andre Johnson are around.

Can we really think he will ever do much better than WR3 numbers with all the mouths to feed there?

Perhaps an occasional week with a TD here and there, but unless AJ completely dies or Hilton is out for a spell, I am keeping my expectations tempered.

TZM

 

[Short Corner]

Acquired and starting with confidence (Dez and DJax owner)

 

[avina1]

I spent 60% of my FAAB budget on him. My WRs are Beckham, Evans, and Watkins. With the stinker that Watkins put up and Evans hammie, I went for Moncrief. Mybench WRs are Beasley and LaFell.

I figure if there was a high upside WR left on the waiver wire, it is Moncrief... and he is attached to Luck.

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

The colts should be concerned about their qb surviving the weekend. Look for Gore to get 20 carries and 22 yards.

 

[Sabertooth]

I like him as well. I think the additions of Andre and Dorsett drove his value down but those guys appear to be lesser parts of the offense than Donte.

 

[Grahamburn]

Acquired and starting with confidence (Dez and DJax owner)

You're starting with desperation.

 

[massraider]

Seems a little odd that the fantasy world wants any part of Green Bay passing game it can get, James Jones will be a starter in millions of leagues this week, yet people seem to hem and haw about the Colts passing game, complaining that this play or that player is going to take targets from this player or that player.

Going to be plenty of targets in this passing game, and as long as the name isn't Fleener or Andre, I'm in.

I'm in on Dorsett too. Might be giving DeSean-type ups and downs, but he's going to have some games. Kid can play.

 

[Raiderfan32904]

I used to be a Moncrief dynasty owner (sold high to acquire Josh Hill). Anyway, I'm not going to trash him, but I think clearly Dorsett is the better player and superior dynasty value. But there's no discounting the recent targets Moncrief has been getting and will likely be getting in the near future. He's got good short term redraft value. I'm trying to re-acquire him without breaking the bank, as I already own TY and Dorsett. Would be nice to have all the bases covered. But I'm not offering much, and I have I land him, great. If not, no big deal. Certainly worth a decent FAAB bid if he's on your waiver wire.

 

[Sabertooth]

I used to be a Moncrief dynasty owner (sold high to acquire Josh Hill). Anyway, I'm not going to trash him, but I think clearly Dorsett is the better player and superior dynasty value. But there's no discounting the recent targets Moncrief has been getting and will likely be getting in the near future. He's got good short term redraft value. I'm trying to re-acquire him without breaking the bank, as I already own TY and Dorsett. Would be nice to have all the bases covered. But I'm not offering much, and I have I land him, great. If not, no big deal. Certainly worth a decent FAAB bid if he's on your waiver wire.

I don't think you understand what sold high means.

 

[Sabertooth]

Seems a little odd that the fantasy world wants any part of Green Bay passing game it can get, James Jones will be a starter in millions of leagues this week, yet people seem to hem and haw about the Colts passing game, complaining that this play or that player is going to take targets from this player or that player.

Going to be plenty of targets in this passing game, and as long as the name isn't Fleener or Andre, I'm in.

I'm in on Dorsett too. Might be giving DeSean-type ups and downs, but he's going to have some games. Kid can play.

Great point. Based off this post, I just dumped Devante Parker for Dorsett.

 

[MattFancy]

Picked up Moncrief in the only one of 3 leagues he was available in for me. Which worked because it happened to be the league I lost Dez in. Beckham, Hopkins, Adams, and Moncrief should be good going forward. Even if Hilton plays, Moncrief could be a good play against a banged up Jets secondary.

 

[Raiderfan32904]

I used to be a Moncrief dynasty owner (sold high to acquire Josh Hill). Anyway, I'm not going to trash him, but I think clearly Dorsett is the better player and superior dynasty value. But there's no discounting the recent targets Moncrief has been getting and will likely be getting in the near future. He's got good short term redraft value. I'm trying to re-acquire him without breaking the bank, as I already own TY and Dorsett. Would be nice to have all the bases covered. But I'm not offering much, and I have I land him, great. If not, no big deal. Certainly worth a decent FAAB bid if he's on your waiver wire.

I don't think you understand what sold high means.

Sorry, my bad...it's early. I meant Jeremy Hill.

 

[shady inc]

i had the 10th waiver wire priority and was able to get him in a 12 team league. probably won't start over alshon, green, or jordan mathews, but i like having depth and bye-week replacement

 

[Deranged Hermit]

He's going to start for me as my flex in one league where I lost Hilton. Probably will start him even if Hilton plays because I suspect Hilton will be limited.

In my start 3 WR league I'm debating between him and Tate. With Tate banged up, my decision might be made for me though.

 

[VA703]

So who does revis lockdown? Andre or Donte?

thinking Donte

may have to sit him this week

 

[shadyridr]

Seems a little odd that the fantasy world wants any part of Green Bay passing game it can get, James Jones will be a starter in millions of leagues this week, yet people seem to hem and haw about the Colts passing game, complaining that this play or that player is going to take targets from this player or that player.

Going to be plenty of targets in this passing game, and as long as the name isn't Fleener or Andre, I'm in.

I'm in on Dorsett too. Might be giving DeSean-type ups and downs, but he's going to have some games. Kid can play.

who was startable in the indy passing offense last year? Hilton? Absolutely. Wayne? No. Montcrief? No. Fleener? Barely. Allen? Barely

 

[MattFancy]

Seems a little odd that the fantasy world wants any part of Green Bay passing game it can get, James Jones will be a starter in millions of leagues this week, yet people seem to hem and haw about the Colts passing game, complaining that this play or that player is going to take targets from this player or that player.

Going to be plenty of targets in this passing game, and as long as the name isn't Fleener or Andre, I'm in.

I'm in on Dorsett too. Might be giving DeSean-type ups and downs, but he's going to have some games. Kid can play.

who was startable in the indy passing offense last year? Hilton? Absolutely. Wayne? No. Montcrief? No. Fleener? Barely. Allen? Barely

And you only had 2 startable guys in GB last year: Nelson and Cobb. Yet this year, everyone wants Cobb, Adams, Jones and even Rodgers.

 

[shadyridr]

Seems a little odd that the fantasy world wants any part of Green Bay passing game it can get, James Jones will be a starter in millions of leagues this week, yet people seem to hem and haw about the Colts passing game, complaining that this play or that player is going to take targets from this player or that player.

Going to be plenty of targets in this passing game, and as long as the name isn't Fleener or Andre, I'm in.

I'm in on Dorsett too. Might be giving DeSean-type ups and downs, but he's going to have some games. Kid can play.

who was startable in the indy passing offense last year? Hilton? Absolutely. Wayne? No. Montcrief? No. Fleener? Barely. Allen? Barely

And you only had 2 startable guys in GB last year: Nelson and Cobb. Yet this year, everyone wants Cobb, Adams, Jones and even Rodgers.

because nelson and cobb are studs and Jones has done it before. Its not a lock that's adams is a stud. Jones could be better than him. I guess your counter point will be Montcrief could be better than AJ. Im not so sure on that.

 

[iamkoza]

So who does revis lockdown? Andre or Donte?

thinking Dontemay have to sit him this week

Also wondering about this, moncrief is the number 1 threat so it makes sense for revis to cover him

 

[shader]

Went back and re-watched the game. A few notes:

1. Buffalo's cornerbacks stopped the Indy receivers in their tracks after the catch. It really didn't matter WHO caught the ball, there was no YAC.

2. The "Andre is done" people are going to be eating a ton of crow. Luck looked his way a LOT. On the final drive, he threw three balls at Andre, all of them errant throws. I suppose Andre's drop in the endzone was poor (it was), but if Andre has a weakness in recent years, it's been the occasional drops. Andre is going to have some massive games this year.

So with TY and Andre getting looks, and the Colts trying to get Dorsett on the field, it's tough to see how Moncrief carves out a constant role, or at least a role that makes him extremely valuable, barring injury. He's going to be very up-and-down. Hilton is better than moncrief, and Andre has the size/possession skillset that Moncrief does not.

I just don't see a big year for Moncrief. I'd hold in dynasty, but I wouldn't blow a bunch of waiver money on the guy atm in redraft.

 

[FF Ninja]

Crazy question: in a competitive non ppr, is it crazy to drop Andre Johnson for Moncrief? Johnson looked awful and I just can't see him playing well moving forward.

I can't drop anyone else on my roster or I would. Anyone else in a similar predicament?

I prefer Moncrief to AJ, but would hate to drop AJ even though he looks done.

Based on what? Don't blindly analyze a box score. I didn't watch the game, either, but from Cian Fahey's article:

Other Thoughts from the Tape

Andre Johnson was receiving a lot of criticism during the Bills-Colts game in Week 1. Johnson is old so the threat of a sudden drop-off in quality is prevalent, but it wasn't evident physically. The whole Colts offense was bad during that game. Johnson looked fine running his routes, even if a little uncomfortable with his new team.

 

[MattFancy]

Seems a little odd that the fantasy world wants any part of Green Bay passing game it can get, James Jones will be a starter in millions of leagues this week, yet people seem to hem and haw about the Colts passing game, complaining that this play or that player is going to take targets from this player or that player.

Going to be plenty of targets in this passing game, and as long as the name isn't Fleener or Andre, I'm in.

I'm in on Dorsett too. Might be giving DeSean-type ups and downs, but he's going to have some games. Kid can play.

who was startable in the indy passing offense last year? Hilton? Absolutely. Wayne? No. Montcrief? No. Fleener? Barely. Allen? Barely

And you only had 2 startable guys in GB last year: Nelson and Cobb. Yet this year, everyone wants Cobb, Adams, Jones and even Rodgers.

because nelson and cobb are studs and Jones has done it before. Its not a lock that's adams is a stud. Jones could be better than him. I guess your counter point will be Montcrief could be better than AJ. Im not so sure on that.

I don't think Moncreif is as good as AJ. My point was just that people are running to grab any part of the Packers offense, when the Colts offense can be as equally potent. That's all.

 

[Isotopes]

Hilton hasn't been ruled out yet, has he?

 

[FF Ninja]

Went back and re-watched the game. A few notes:

1. Buffalo's cornerbacks stopped the Indy receivers in their tracks after the catch. It really didn't matter WHO caught the ball, there was no YAC.

2. The "Andre is done" people are going to be eating a ton of crow. Luck looked his way a LOT. On the final drive, he threw three balls at Andre, all of them errant throws. I suppose Andre's drop in the endzone was poor (it was), but if Andre has a weakness in recent years, it's been the occasional drops. Andre is going to have some massive games this year.

So with TY and Andre getting looks, and the Colts trying to get Dorsett on the field, it's tough to see how Moncrief carves out a constant role, or at least a role that makes him extremely valuable, barring injury. He's going to be very up-and-down. Hilton is better than moncrief, and Andre has the size/possession skillset that Moncrief does not.

I just don't see a big year for Moncrief. I'd hold in dynasty, but I wouldn't blow a bunch of waiver money on the guy atm in redraft.

Has he been known for drops? I didn't think so. In the last 3 years, his drop rate has fluctuated between 2.7%-4.4%. I really like the reception perception articles by Matt Harmon. I think they provide information that would be difficult to discern even if you watched every snap. This one had this to say about AJ:

Andre Johnson has a big year in store playing with Andrew Luck in Indianapolis. Believers in catch-per-target efficiency as an end-all-be-all will tell you Andre Johnson is nearly finished. This stat paints an inaccurate and unfair picture of what Johnson has left to offer. While not the physical specimen he used to be, the veteran receiver still knows how to get open. He beat man coverage at a 69.9 percent success rate last season, and did battle with number-one corners throughout the year despite DeAndre Hopkins’ stellar performance on the other side. He just never played with a quarterback last season who fit him, which is why he caught so few of his targets. Johnson also brings something to the Colts offense Andrew Luck has yet to play with, a dominant receiver in traffic. The former Texan posted a 76.5 percent contested catch conversion rate on 17 attempts, which was one of the strongest efforts charted in 2014. Even if he does fall off a physical cliff, that ability will keep his value afloat, a la Anquan Boldin. Johnson never seemed settled with how his final year played out in Houston, or his release by the only NFL team he’s known. His Reception Perception data indicates he’ll be making them pay for that decision two times a year now. Expect a big season from this player, as the Colts look to make Super Bowl run in 2015.

 

[MattFancy]

Hilton hasn't been ruled out yet, has he?

Nope. Don't really think there's been any updates on him since Monday

 

[cstu]

Crazy question: in a competitive non ppr, is it crazy to drop Andre Johnson for Moncrief? Johnson looked awful and I just can't see him playing well moving forward.

I can't drop anyone else on my roster or I would. Anyone else in a similar predicament?

I prefer Moncrief to AJ, but would hate to drop AJ even though he looks done.

Based on what? Don't blindly analyze a box score. I didn't watch the game, either, but from Cian Fahey's article:

Other Thoughts from the Tape

Andre Johnson was receiving a lot of criticism during the Bills-Colts game in Week 1. Johnson is old so the threat of a sudden drop-off in quality is prevalent, but it wasn't evident physically. The whole Colts offense was bad during that game. Johnson looked fine running his routes, even if a little uncomfortable with his new team.

I watched the game - he looked slow, just as he looked slow last year. Of course he still has some skill left but he's not the same guy he was. If you're looking for a guy to catch 6/70, he's your guy.

 

[DeaLerZ]

Went back and re-watched the game. A few notes:

1. Buffalo's cornerbacks stopped the Indy receivers in their tracks after the catch. It really didn't matter WHO caught the ball, there was no YAC.

2. The "Andre is done" people are going to be eating a ton of crow. Luck looked his way a LOT. On the final drive, he threw three balls at Andre, all of them errant throws. I suppose Andre's drop in the endzone was poor (it was), but if Andre has a weakness in recent years, it's been the occasional drops. Andre is going to have some massive games this year.

So with TY and Andre getting looks, and the Colts trying to get Dorsett on the field, it's tough to see how Moncrief carves out a constant role, or at least a role that makes him extremely valuable, barring injury. He's going to be very up-and-down. Hilton is better than moncrief, and Andre has the size/possession skillset that Moncrief does not.

I just don't see a big year for Moncrief. I'd hold in dynasty, but I wouldn't blow a bunch of waiver money on the guy atm in redraft.

this is the point I was trying to make. You did a much better job lol. I don't see how Moncrief because he gets 10 targets in one game is suddenly better than Andre lol. He will have big games sure, this week vs the Jets not likely. Andre will be much more consisent. I personally was not willing to spend 50% on the guy, and just feel this is a bit of an over reaction to spend so much on him. I completely understand the guys whose WRs were decimated in week 1, they need to take a chance.

 

[FF Ninja]

Crazy question: in a competitive non ppr, is it crazy to drop Andre Johnson for Moncrief? Johnson looked awful and I just can't see him playing well moving forward.

I can't drop anyone else on my roster or I would. Anyone else in a similar predicament?

I prefer Moncrief to AJ, but would hate to drop AJ even though he looks done.

Based on what? Don't blindly analyze a box score. I didn't watch the game, either, but from Cian Fahey's article:

Other Thoughts from the Tape

Andre Johnson was receiving a lot of criticism during the Bills-Colts game in Week 1. Johnson is old so the threat of a sudden drop-off in quality is prevalent, but it wasn't evident physically. The whole Colts offense was bad during that game. Johnson looked fine running his routes, even if a little uncomfortable with his new team.

I watched the game - he looked slow, just as he looked slow last year. Of course he still has some skill left but he's not the same guy he was. If you're looking for a guy to catch 6/70, he's your guy.

Sounds like you were watching a different game than shader and Cian Fahey. But FWIW, Joe Bryant agrees with you. He's the most fickle guy I've ever read, though. People lose a step and gain it back quickly with that guy. Also, the "guy to own" changes with him weekly. Sometimes I'm not sure why he bothers with the "our view" part of those e-mails because his view doesn't always reflect the view of his analysts - this being a case in point.

 

[ryno1980]

You guys are ignoring some of the data here. Johnson was great in his prime but that's over. His yards per reception dwindled to 11 per catch last season. Sure, he has a much better qb situation now but Andre made up for that when he was younger. His ability to bust plays over 20 yards has gone down the last couple years.

Of Moncriefs 49 targets in 2014, he caught 7 for 20 yard pass plays and 3 of those were 30-plus yard TDs.

luck had a 67 percent completion percentage to Dante and a 125 rating, both higher numbers than luck had with Hilton. I admit that's a smaller sample size but it proves, combined with Moncriefs performance in week 1, that there is some good chemistry here. I want a piece of that and paid the 30 percent of Faab to get it.

Maybe Andre has some resurgent season but I don't see it. The reliable 6-70 that another poster mentioned is how I see him. Moncrief has the chance to haven the monster games.

 

[dagwood]

You guys are ignoring some of the data here. Johnson was great in his prime but that's over. His yards per reception dwindled to 11 per catch last season. Sure, he has a much better qb situation now but Andre made up for that when he was younger. His ability to bust plays over 20 yards has gone down the last couple years.

Of Moncriefs 49 targets in 2014, he caught 7 for 20 yard pass plays and 3 of those were 30-plus yard TDs.

luck had a 67 percent completion percentage to Dante and a 125 rating, both higher numbers than luck had with Hilton. I admit that's a smaller sample size but it proves, combined with Moncriefs performance in week 1, that there is some good chemistry here. I want a piece of that and paid the 30 percent of Faab to get it.

Maybe Andre has some resurgent season but I don't see it. The reliable 6-70 that another poster mentioned is how I see him. Moncrief has the chance to haven the monster games.

He is this years TY Hilton. Get him now. His price will keep going up.