doubling up on elite TEs (1 Viewer)

[prgromek]

I consider the top-tier TEs to be extremely safe options in a PPR league, so if you are in a a PPR league with a mandatory TE and you can flex a TE, why not take two if the opportunity is there? There are so many RBs-WRs that I see having similar value in rounds 3-6, so why not grab a couple of TEs in these rounds

1) There's a good chance you will start a TE run, or at least force a couple other owners to take a TE earlier than they anticipated, letting more value at other positions slip to you in later rounds.

2) You give yourself nice security at the TE position. In a PPR league, I'm a big believer now in getting one of the top-tier TEs. Getting consistent production out of the TE position is a big advantage especially in this format. Chasing points at TE is not a fun way to go through the season.

In one league from the 6-hole I went

Andre Johnson

Jamaal Charles

Steve Smith (NYG)

Antonio Gates

Brent Celek

Mike Wallace

Kevin Kolb

Terrell Owens

Thomas Jones

Chester Taylor

Other league from the 10-hole I went

Larry Fitzgerald

Pierre Thomas

Dallas Clark

Antonio Gates

Jahvid Best

Johnny Knox

Devin Hester

Jerome Harrison

Lee Evans

Montario Hardesty

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

I agree 100%, and at the risk of talking about my own team, I used to have a lot of trouble at the position, so last year I took clark early and then took celek late.

we play wr, wr, te, flex, in a half ppr.

I think the key to this, as with any strategy, is basically just to hit with your picks, but I'm a fan of 2 good te's in a league that plays flex.

 

[Beefeaters]

There seems to me to be a lot of quality depth at the TE position this season, which would make it hard to justify taking one too early.

 

[prgromek]

There seems to me to be a lot of quality depth at the TE position this season, which would make it hard to justify taking one too early.

I would agree that there appears to be a lot of depth, but I got burned last year with "depth" picks at TE like Dustin Keller and Greg Olsen

 

[pghrob]

I consider the top-tier TEs to be extremely safe options in a PPR league, so if you are in a a PPR league with a mandatory TE and you can flex a TE, why not take two if the opportunity is there? There are so many RBs-WRs that I see having similar value in rounds 3-6, so why not grab a couple of TEs in these rounds1) There's a good chance you will start a TE run, or at least force a couple other owners to take a TE earlier than they anticipated, letting more value at other positions slip to you in later rounds.2) You give yourself nice security at the TE position. In a PPR league, I'm a big believer now in getting one of the top-tier TEs. Getting consistent production out of the TE position is a big advantage especially in this format. Chasing points at TE is not a fun way to go through the season.In one league from the 6-hole I wentAndre JohnsonJamaal CharlesSteve Smith (NYG)Antonio GatesBrent CelekMike WallaceKevin KolbTerrell OwensThomas JonesChester TaylorOther league from the 10-hole I wentLarry FitzgeraldPierre ThomasDallas ClarkAntonio GatesJahvid BestJohnny KnoxDevin HesterJerome HarrisonLee EvansMontario Hardesty

I dunno....maybe...but that top team looks kind of thin at rb to me. What's your plan there?

 

[Sebowski]

There seems to me to be a lot of quality depth at the TE position this season, which would make it hard to justify taking one too early.

I would agree that there appears to be a lot of depth, but I got burned last year with "depth" picks at TE like Dustin Keller and Greg Olsen

That was your fault. I waited until the 10th last year and grabbed Vernon, Celek, and Finely with my next 3 picks.

 

[AngryGorilla]

I see your point, but that 2nd half of your 2nd team could be straight bust...across the board. That's alot of stock into 2 stud TE's...

 

[vikingdave]

I consider the top-tier TEs to be extremely safe options in a PPR league, so if you are in a a PPR league with a mandatory TE and you can flex a TE, why not take two if the opportunity is there? There are so many RBs-WRs that I see having similar value in rounds 3-6, so why not grab a couple of TEs in these rounds1) There's a good chance you will start a TE run, or at least force a couple other owners to take a TE earlier than they anticipated, letting more value at other positions slip to you in later rounds.2) You give yourself nice security at the TE position. In a PPR league, I'm a big believer now in getting one of the top-tier TEs. Getting consistent production out of the TE position is a big advantage especially in this format. Chasing points at TE is not a fun way to go through the season.In one league from the 6-hole I wentAndre JohnsonJamaal CharlesSteve Smith (NYG)Antonio GatesBrent CelekMike WallaceKevin KolbTerrell OwensThomas JonesChester TaylorOther league from the 10-hole I wentLarry FitzgeraldPierre ThomasDallas ClarkAntonio GatesJahvid BestJohnny KnoxDevin HesterJerome HarrisonLee EvansMontario Hardesty

I dunno....maybe...but that top team looks kind of thin at rb to me. What's your plan there?

I agree completely...gluck at RB, yuck...not to mention Charles isnt exactly a proven commodity...Ill let others snatch up TEs and Ill grab one late that will get me solid points...then three weeks in you will be coming to me for my bench RB and Ill ask for your stud TE...since you dont have much else you will have no choice but to ship one over...thanks...

 

[prgromek]

I dunno....maybe...but that top team looks kind of thin at rb to me. What's your plan there?

I don't know yet....I don't have a RB2 as of now but I have to hope somebody emerges on my roster or I will spend heavily with my free agent dollars.

I don't mind being weak at RB to start the year in a PPR though (assuming you have to be weak somewhere)

 

[SSOG]

There seems to me to be a lot of quality depth at the TE position this season, which would make it hard to justify taking one too early.

I would agree that there appears to be a lot of depth, but I got burned last year with "depth" picks at TE like Dustin Keller and Greg Olsen

That was your fault. I waited until the 10th last year and grabbed Vernon, Celek, and Finely with my next 3 picks.

Oh yeah? Well I traded my first six draft picks for someone else's last 6 draft picks (because I'm just that awesome) and then drafted Matt Schaub, Brett Favre, Ray Rice, Rashard Mendenhall, Fred Jackson, Jamaal Charles, Sidney Rice, Miles Austin, Derrick Mason, Steve Smith North, Robert Meachem, Mike Sims-Walker, Vernon Davis, and Brent Celek. I'm so amazing that Miss Cleo actually called me from prison to offer me her psychic empire, but I cut her off in mid-sentence and told her I knew she was going to do that.

 

[prgromek]

I consider the top-tier TEs to be extremely safe options in a PPR league, so if you are in a a PPR league with a mandatory TE and you can flex a TE, why not take two if the opportunity is there? There are so many RBs-WRs that I see having similar value in rounds 3-6, so why not grab a couple of TEs in these rounds1) There's a good chance you will start a TE run, or at least force a couple other owners to take a TE earlier than they anticipated, letting more value at other positions slip to you in later rounds.2) You give yourself nice security at the TE position. In a PPR league, I'm a big believer now in getting one of the top-tier TEs. Getting consistent production out of the TE position is a big advantage especially in this format. Chasing points at TE is not a fun way to go through the season.In one league from the 6-hole I wentAndre JohnsonJamaal CharlesSteve Smith (NYG)Antonio GatesBrent CelekMike WallaceKevin KolbTerrell OwensThomas JonesChester TaylorOther league from the 10-hole I wentLarry FitzgeraldPierre ThomasDallas ClarkAntonio GatesJahvid BestJohnny KnoxDevin HesterJerome HarrisonLee EvansMontario Hardesty

I dunno....maybe...but that top team looks kind of thin at rb to me. What's your plan there?

I agree completely...gluck at RB, yuck...not to mention Charles isnt exactly a proven commodity...Ill let others snatch up TEs and Ill grab one late that will get me solid points...then three weeks in you will be coming to me for my bench RB and Ill ask for your stud TE...since you dont have much else you will have no choice but to ship one over...thanks...

I took a chance on Charles in this league because he has a pretty cheap handcuff in Jones right now. This is a no-trade league but there is no doubt that the first team is very weak at RB right now.I am more confident in being able to acquire a RB2 over the course of the season than I am a top TE. I see these top TEs as the proven commodities that I feel confident in spending an early round pick on. There are so many RB committees that I see a lot of bust potential in the RBs that are going in some of these early rounds. Assuming you have to take on risk somewhere, I'd rather do it at RB to start the season with guys that I didn't spend a premium pick on.I would never do this in a non-PPR, but in the PPR format I think it can be viable.

 

[vikingdave]

I consider the top-tier TEs to be extremely safe options in a PPR league, so if you are in a a PPR league with a mandatory TE and you can flex a TE, why not take two if the opportunity is there? There are so many RBs-WRs that I see having similar value in rounds 3-6, so why not grab a couple of TEs in these rounds1) There's a good chance you will start a TE run, or at least force a couple other owners to take a TE earlier than they anticipated, letting more value at other positions slip to you in later rounds.2) You give yourself nice security at the TE position. In a PPR league, I'm a big believer now in getting one of the top-tier TEs. Getting consistent production out of the TE position is a big advantage especially in this format. Chasing points at TE is not a fun way to go through the season.In one league from the 6-hole I wentAndre JohnsonJamaal CharlesSteve Smith (NYG)Antonio GatesBrent CelekMike WallaceKevin KolbTerrell OwensThomas JonesChester TaylorOther league from the 10-hole I wentLarry FitzgeraldPierre ThomasDallas ClarkAntonio GatesJahvid BestJohnny KnoxDevin HesterJerome HarrisonLee EvansMontario Hardesty

I dunno....maybe...but that top team looks kind of thin at rb to me. What's your plan there?

I agree completely...gluck at RB, yuck...not to mention Charles isnt exactly a proven commodity...Ill let others snatch up TEs and Ill grab one late that will get me solid points...then three weeks in you will be coming to me for my bench RB and Ill ask for your stud TE...since you dont have much else you will have no choice but to ship one over...thanks...

I took a chance on Charles in this league because he has a pretty cheap handcuff in Jones right now. This is a no-trade league but there is no doubt that the first team is very weak at RB right now.I am more confident in being able to acquire a RB2 over the course of the season than I am a top TE. I see these top TEs as the proven commodities that I feel confident in spending an early round pick on. There are so many RB committees that I see a lot of bust potential in the RBs that are going in some of these early rounds. Assuming you have to take on risk somewhere, I'd rather do it at RB to start the season with guys that I didn't spend a premium pick on.I would never do this in a non-PPR, but in the PPR format I think it can be viable.

getting on of the top TEs is fine, but then ignoring RB completely to add another...doesnt seem to make sense to me...but good luck...

 

[Balance]

There seems to me to be a lot of quality depth at the TE position this season, which would make it hard to justify taking one too early.

I would agree that there appears to be a lot of depth, but I got burned last year with "depth" picks at TE like Dustin Keller and Greg Olsen

That was your fault. I waited until the 10th last year and grabbed Vernon, Celek, and Finely with my next 3 picks.

 

[bulger2holt]

Just grab Zach Miller and Cooley in rds 8 and 9 and be done. Those two are going to have huge years.

 

[We Tigers]

I consider the top-tier TEs to be extremely safe options in a PPR league, so if you are in a a PPR league with a mandatory TE and you can flex a TE, why not take two if the opportunity is there? There are so many RBs-WRs that I see having similar value in rounds 3-6, so why not grab a couple of TEs in these rounds

In a standard PPR league in 2009, there were 7 WRs and who outscored every TE. WR1s and WR2s (the top 24 WRs) scored between 188 (Harvin) and 324 points (AJ). Only 8 TEs scored better than the #24 WR. The same is true of RBs, where RB1 through RB24 scored between 180 (Tomlinson) and 396 points (CJ). Again, only 8 TEs scored better than the #24 RB.There's merit to taking a second "elite" TE if the value falls to you, but Celek at 5.06 and Clark/Gates at the round 3/4 turn are not prime examples of this. You're severely limiting your ceiling by banking heavily on TEs as a flex, given the fact that even mid-level performers at RB and WR score comparably with those top TEs. I see the most value for flexing a TE coming in the late rounds. Guys like Heath Miller and John Carlson, who can be had very cheap in the 13th round and may be more useful than the WR flyers and backup RBs coming off the board then, embody the idea of extremely safe production at low cost, and also have significant upside.

 

[death of the cool]

I have thought of doing this as well....

I have the 1st pick, and in the mocks coming back down in the 4th (4.12/5.01 turn), I have seen Gates, V.Davis, Finley, and Witten still sitting there while people are snagging up all the WR and RBs. I have thought of taken 2 at that point instead of my 2nd WR.

At the worst all of those guys will hold their own point wise until you can find a better 2nd WR....and once teams struggle at the TE position, you may be able to work a nice trade.

I will consider it if the value is there and I am not happy with what is on the board at the time.

 

[prgromek]

I consider the top-tier TEs to be extremely safe options in a PPR league, so if you are in a a PPR league with a mandatory TE and you can flex a TE, why not take two if the opportunity is there? There are so many RBs-WRs that I see having similar value in rounds 3-6, so why not grab a couple of TEs in these rounds

In a standard PPR league in 2009, there were 7 WRs and who outscored every TE. WR1s and WR2s (the top 24 WRs) scored between 188 (Harvin) and 324 points (AJ). Only 8 TEs scored better than the #24 WR. The same is true of RBs, where RB1 through RB24 scored between 180 (Tomlinson) and 396 points (CJ). Again, only 8 TEs scored better than the #24 RB.There's merit to taking a second "elite" TE if the value falls to you, but Celek at 5.06 and Clark/Gates at the round 3/4 turn are not prime examples of this. You're severely limiting your ceiling by banking heavily on TEs as a flex, given the fact that even mid-level performers at RB and WR score comparably with those top TEs. I see the most value for flexing a TE coming in the late rounds. Guys like Heath Miller and John Carlson, who can be had very cheap in the 13th round and may be more useful than the WR flyers and backup RBs coming off the board then, embody the idea of extremely safe production at low cost, and also have significant upside.

I guess my thinking on this is in terms of limiting risk during the draft. The top TEs like Clark and Gates seem to have a much lower chance of busting than the RBs or WRs going near them in the draft. I may be limiting my ceiling to an extent, but it also takes away the weekly guessing game of which WR or RB to start in your flex (and inevitably you seem to make the wrong choice). I've become a big believer in stockpiling as many receptions as you can early on in a PPR, and worry about filling out the RB stable later.

 

[VaTerp]

My main league does not require a TE so we use them as WRs or the flex. While I agree with you to an extent about elite TEs being "safe" options in PPR I don't think I would purposely go after 2 at the expense of my RBs.

Personally, I think both of the teams you drafted are extremely weak at RB and that you will struggle to compete in both of those respective leagues unless they are 14 plus teamers.

While TEs may be "safe" options they are also not the most explosive and I don't see them making up for the gaping holes you have at RB. JMO though.

 

[prgromek]

My main league does not require a TE so we use them as WRs or the flex. While I agree with you to an extent about elite TEs being "safe" options in PPR I don't think I would purposely go after 2 at the expense of my RBs.Personally, I think both of the teams you drafted are extremely weak at RB and that you will struggle to compete in both of those respective leagues unless they are 14 plus teamers.While TEs may be "safe" options they are also not the most explosive and I don't see them making up for the gaping holes you have at RB. JMO though.

I think the RB rankings pre-season have the most "guessing" of any position. WR less so and TE even less so than that. A team can look strong at RB pre-season and by mid-season not look good at all. I would rather do the most speculating later in the draft when less is at stake. I think the RB position in a PPR lends itself to speculating once you get past the elite guys. I am seeing the benefits to getting sure-thing pass catchers early and grabbing most of your RBs later and hope you "hit" on one like Rice, Charles, Benson last year. The first team is definitely weaker at RB than I would have liked. The other guys in my league did a good job at snatching up RB value that I was hoping would fall and I waited too long.

 

[VaTerp]

My main league does not require a TE so we use them as WRs or the flex. While I agree with you to an extent about elite TEs being "safe" options in PPR I don't think I would purposely go after 2 at the expense of my RBs.

Personally, I think both of the teams you drafted are extremely weak at RB and that you will struggle to compete in both of those respective leagues unless they are 14 plus teamers.

While TEs may be "safe" options they are also not the most explosive and I don't see them making up for the gaping holes you have at RB. JMO though.

I think the RB rankings pre-season have the most "guessing" of any position. WR less so and TE even less so than that. A team can look strong at RB pre-season and by mid-season not look good at all. I would rather do the most speculating later in the draft when less is at stake. I think the RB position in a PPR lends itself to speculating once you get past the elite guys. I am seeing the benefits to getting sure-thing pass catchers early and grabbing most of your RBs later and hope you "hit" on one like Rice, Charles, Benson last year.

The first team is definitely weaker at RB than I would have liked. The other guys in my league did a good job at snatching up RB value that I was hoping would fall and I waited too long.

Don't disagree with any of this. RBs are always a guessing game to an extent and the most successful teams are usually the ones that strike gold on the mid round guys who provide tremendous value. I just don't see any of those type of guys on your teams. You are gambling on getting production out of the RB position from Deep sleepers not mid round guys. And your percentage of hitting on those is much lower than the Rice, Charles, Benson type guys you mentioned from last year.I think you are correct in saying you waited too long. On the first team you went 6 straight picks without taking a RB with a somewhat risky IMO, Charles as your RB1. The 2nd team appears to have some RBs that could hit in Best, Harrison, and Hardesty to go along with PT who Im really high on even though I wouldnt take him that high. And in Fitz, Gates, Clark you have 3 PPR studs. Curious who your QB is on this team.

But hey, what do I know? It could work out very well for you. I just know I would not feel comfortable with those rosters, especially the 1st team you posted. There is a lot of mid round value at RB and in many of the mocks I've done I have waited to take a 2nd RB while grabbing stud WRs or even a QB. I just think you passed on almost all of the mid round RBs that could provide value and are relying on finding a gem on the wire or a deep sleeper. Good luck.

 

[We Tigers]

I consider the top-tier TEs to be extremely safe options in a PPR league, so if you are in a a PPR league with a mandatory TE and you can flex a TE, why not take two if the opportunity is there? There are so many RBs-WRs that I see having similar value in rounds 3-6, so why not grab a couple of TEs in these rounds

In a standard PPR league in 2009, there were 7 WRs and who outscored every TE. WR1s and WR2s (the top 24 WRs) scored between 188 (Harvin) and 324 points (AJ). Only 8 TEs scored better than the #24 WR. The same is true of RBs, where RB1 through RB24 scored between 180 (Tomlinson) and 396 points (CJ). Again, only 8 TEs scored better than the #24 RB.There's merit to taking a second "elite" TE if the value falls to you, but Celek at 5.06 and Clark/Gates at the round 3/4 turn are not prime examples of this. You're severely limiting your ceiling by banking heavily on TEs as a flex, given the fact that even mid-level performers at RB and WR score comparably with those top TEs.

I see the most value for flexing a TE coming in the late rounds. Guys like Heath Miller and John Carlson, who can be had very cheap in the 13th round and may be more useful than the WR flyers and backup RBs coming off the board then, embody the idea of extremely safe production at low cost, and also have significant upside.

I guess my thinking on this is in terms of limiting risk during the draft. The top TEs like Clark and Gates seem to have a much lower chance of busting than the RBs or WRs going near them in the draft. I may be limiting my ceiling to an extent, but it also takes away the weekly guessing game of which WR or RB to start in your flex (and inevitably you seem to make the wrong choice). I've become a big believer in stockpiling as many receptions as you can early on in a PPR, and worry about filling out the RB stable later.

I went to the ADP data from the last two seasons (courtesy MFL) to see how that line of thinking holds up. Here's 2009's ADP:
1. Witten, Jason DAL TE 40.25 2. Gates, Antonio SDC TE 48.55 3. Gonzalez, Tony ATL TE 51.79 4. Clark, Dallas IND TE 57.565. Olsen, Greg CHI TE 72.87 6. Cooley, Chris WAS TE* 81.14 7. Daniels, Owen HOU TE* 87.08 8. Winslow, Kellen TBB TE 90.76 9. Carlson, John SEA TE 106.80 10. Shockey, Jeremy NOS TE 118.33 11. Miller, Zach OAK TE 120.00 12. Keller, Dustin NYJ TE 123.82 13. Shiancoe, Visanthe MIN TE 124.52 14. Miller, Heath PIT TE 143.60 15. Boss, Kevin NYG TE 144.16 16. Celek, Brent PHI TE 153.38 17. Davis, Vernon SFO TE 154.76Of the TEs taken as elite, you're somewhat right; from 2009, only Olsen can be considered a major disappointment (and Cooley a moderate one). Daniels was doing excellent until his injury, and Cooley probably would have ended up with around 800 yds/6 TDs and finished TE9ish. However, Celek and Davis were taken very late--13th round--and ended up top 5. That's one reason why I lean more towards applying this idea against late-round flex TE acquisitions rather than early ones.The other thing to look at is the order of finish. Scoring data from 2009:

1. Dallas Clark 271.7 (ADP TE4)

2. Vernon Davis 252.5 (ADP TE17)

3. Antonio Gates 242.7 (ADP TE2)

4. Brent Celek 221.1 (ADP TE16)

5. Jason Witten 209.0 (ADP TE1)

6. Tony Gonzalez 205.7 (ADP TE3)

7. Kellen Winslow 196.1 (ADP TE8)

8. Heath Miller 190.9 (ADP TE14)

9. Visanthe Shiancoe 178.6 (ADP TE13)

10. Greg Olsen 169.2 (ADP TE5)

11. Zach Miller 164.5 (ADP TE11)

12. Jermichael Finley 152.6 (ADP TE well below this list)

If you can predict the order of TEs better than you can other positions, excellent. However, TE1 in ADP last year--Witten--finished below 19 wide receivers and 16 RBs. Not awful, but when you're looking at an already small group of players considered elite, slight variances in scoring vs. projection can do some major damage to your output.

 

[VaCatFan]

I like the doubling up of TE's. In one league where WR's and TE's are the same position, but wr's get 1ppr and te's get 1.5 ppr, I have Vernon Davis, Dallas Clark, and Jason Witten. With that scoring, Clark was #1, Davis #5, and Witten #16 of the combined wr's and te's last year.

 

[KellysHeroes]

There seems to me to be a lot of quality depth at the TE position this season, which would make it hard to justify taking one too early.

Theres is, but I would say only 3 or 4 of them are capable of 80 - 90+ Recs and 1000+ yardsGates / Clark / Witten are your best bet (2 of those 3 should go over 80 Recs / 1000+ Davis / Celek / Finley - 1 should go over 80 Rec / 1000+in leagues where you get extra pts for TEs I love Witten's value. If you can get Gates or Clark and then Witten is a good deal.

 

[Yellow Line is Unoffcial]

There seems to me to be a lot of quality depth at the TE position this season, which would make it hard to justify taking one too early.

I would agree that there appears to be a lot of depth, but I got burned last year with "depth" picks at TE like Dustin Keller and Greg Olsen

That was your fault. I waited until the 10th last year and grabbed Vernon, Celek, and Finely with my next 3 picks.

look at me

 

[Jayrod]

There seems to me to be a lot of quality depth at the TE position this season, which would make it hard to justify taking one too early.

I would agree that there appears to be a lot of depth, but I got burned last year with "depth" picks at TE like Dustin Keller and Greg Olsen

These are my dynasty league TE's. I went from feeling very confident in my future at TE last year to thinking I've got a hole in my roster this year. I think Keller will be OK and maybe Olsen gets traded, but dang those two guys have fallen in value in 12 months.