msudaisy26
Footballguy
I would say the bad part is how he defended his statement with this before anyone actually questioned his rankings.
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Doug Martin 2014 (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Carl Eller's Dead Liver
- Start date
Bigboy10182000
Footballguy
Shutout
Footballguy
I think they throw out the term "bounce-back RB 1" a bit too loosely. To be a true RB1 means you're in that upper rare echelon and I don't see it. Not because of Martin, necessarily, but look over the list and try to fit him confidently in the top of this list and it's hard:
Peterson
Lynch
Charles
Lacy
Bell
The Denver Rb
Shady mcCoy
Forte
Then a layer of serious contenders:
Gio
Spiller
J. Bell
Morris
Stacy
Vareen
Foster
That's a lot of guys that I can easily see making it hard for Martin to be a RB1. And that's without even mentioning Jennings, Chris Johnson, Reggie Bush, Ryan Matthews, Gore, the forgotten David Wilson, Ray Rice, etc.
To me, Martin will be a guy that lands squarely in the upper middle of the pack but because of his upside will get more attention that most others.
msommer
Footballguy
Not sure I agree with the Denver RB. My take is that it might be RBBC between Ball and Hillman (Anderson?) or a new guy who can run, catch and pass protect.
Given the availability of FA (slim to none now) and the lack of a concensus rookie RB with a full skillset, I think it points to RBBC - which would probebly eliminathe this from the top tier.
I view Bell (and to an extent Stacy) similar to where most detractors see Doug Martin. Needs volume to deliver, so not sure I agree that Bell should be in the first tier at all. More so because his 3,5 ypc for 2013 is worse than Doug Martin's (let's remove his best game) average of 4.1ypc (and worse than Martins 2013 ypc too).
And finally not sold on Lacy as necessarily better than Martin either. So lump the three here in the second group together with Martin and we'll see where it ends.
That may be ok for RB1, depending on league size.
Given the availability of FA (slim to none now) and the lack of a concensus rookie RB with a full skillset, I think it points to RBBC - which would probebly eliminathe this from the top tier.
I view Bell (and to an extent Stacy) similar to where most detractors see Doug Martin. Needs volume to deliver, so not sure I agree that Bell should be in the first tier at all. More so because his 3,5 ypc for 2013 is worse than Doug Martin's (let's remove his best game) average of 4.1ypc (and worse than Martins 2013 ypc too).
And finally not sold on Lacy as necessarily better than Martin either. So lump the three here in the second group together with Martin and we'll see where it ends.
That may be ok for RB1, depending on league size.
cstu
Footballguy
Lott's Fingertip
Footballguy
I may have missed the announcement that Blount is slated for GL work... but did his GL efficiency improve last year? He was pretty sucky at the GL in Tampa.msommer said:
msommer
Footballguy
Lott's Fingertip
Footballguy
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap2000000337858/article/legarrette-blount-pittsburgh-steelers-strike-contract
If this is it, that just looks like lazy speculation by the writer, IMO.
EBF
Footballguy
I went back and watched one of his best college games against Arizona State:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ONBzZDKI7IY
A good reminder of how talented Doug Martin is. I noticed that his dynasty ADP has slipped all the way to RB8. IMO he's a very good investment at that price. I rate him above Bell, Peterson, Forte, Gio, and Lacy for dynasty purposes. Some of the chatter indicates that his role will be reduced, but I think he's still going to be very good.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ONBzZDKI7IY
A good reminder of how talented Doug Martin is. I noticed that his dynasty ADP has slipped all the way to RB8. IMO he's a very good investment at that price. I rate him above Bell, Peterson, Forte, Gio, and Lacy for dynasty purposes. Some of the chatter indicates that his role will be reduced, but I think he's still going to be very good.
Bigboy10182000
Footballguy
Charles Sims down for 3-4 months and Mike James seems to have a shoulder injury that will have him miss some time.
Sabertooth
Footballguy
Bigboy10182000
Footballguy
Injuries aside he would seem like a lock to produce top 12 in PPR IMO
Sabertooth
Footballguy
Unless he's just not that good.
Bigboy10182000
Footballguy
Which is possible. When I watch him, he looks good to me. I think having Evans and Jackson outside will also help open things up for him as well. JMO anyway
without the raider game he went for 1654 yfs, 45 catches and 8 total tds. thats in only 15 games tho.
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Mozeta
Footballguy
Really? You must not have watched Martin play last year or watched most of his NFL career. Gio and Spiller are much more talented than Martin. Spiller because he is better all around and Gio because of his pass catching abilities. Bell and Stacy are both in the same ballpark as Martin. 2 years ago Martin had 1454 rushing yards, but 794 of those yards came in 5 games against less than stellar defenses. in the other 10 games he averaged 66 yards per game. Last year before he was injured he was terrible and two back ups came in and outperformed him easily. Martin is pretty much a big bag of below average IMO and I will be passing on at his current ADP.
EBF
Footballguy
Martin had the most total yards of any rookie RB since Edgerrin James. I think it would be hard to do that on a mediocre team if he had below average talent. I don't know if he's better than Gio or Spiller. They're flashier players, but he's a lot bigger and stronger than either of them. He's probably a more complete overall back. Everyone loves speed and explosiveness, but there's something to be said for strength and power as well.
Martin played in six games last season. Here are his stats:
vs. NYJ - 24 carries, 65 yards (2.7 YPC)
vs. NO - 29 carries, 144 yards (5.0 YPC)
vs. NE - 20 carries, 88 yards (4.4 YPC)
vs. ARI - 27 carries, 45 yards (1.7 YPC)
vs. PHI - 16 carries, 67 yards (4.2 YPC)
vs. ATL - 11 carries, 47 yards (4.3 YPC)
He had one nightmare game, one bad one, and four pretty good ones. To say he was "terrible" seems like a stretch. He only scored one TD and that hurt his FF numbers. The one horrendous game against AZ killed his YPC average. However, he was pretty effective more often than not. IMO the backlash is excessive. People who got burned by him in FF are exaggerating the extent to which he struggled in real life. He had a forgettable year, but it wasn't the disaster people make it out to be. With a full 16 games to minimize variance, I'm guessing his YPC and his FF ppg would've crept back up closer to his 2012 numbers.
Watching the game that I linked above, I was struck (again) by what a talent he is. I think he's on the level of guys like Lynch and Forte, and would draft him with confidence at his ADP in dynasty or redraft. I actually got him in both drafts I've done this year (one dynasty startup and one redraft), so I guess he's a guy who jumps out at me right now as a very good value.
2013 Charles had 572yds in 5 games and only averaged 65yds per game in the other 11
2013 McCoy had 847yds in 5 games and only averaged 69yds per game in the other 11
etc, etc, etc....
The idea of arbitrarily reducing out a players best games to prove he wasn't very good is a big bag of below average analysis. It's cherry picking stats to try to make your invalid point. Martin was a beast in 2012, no matter how you parse the numbers. You don't like him as a back, fine. You think his adp is too high this year, fine. Don't twist numbers to try to make your argument, just say it for what it is... your opinion.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
thats a big obstacle right now.
I like martin, but I think someone will take him before me in redraft
False Start
Footballguy
You should let them, if we have seen anything its that talent or not, bad OLines cause for big headaches. I like the Buccs in another year when they can focus on the OLine in FA and draft. The offensive skill positions and defense are nice... the OLine could end up being the worst int he league which means Martin aint gonna produce much and McCown will be on his back most the season.
lol, so now we've gone from, "well, remove that one long run and he wasnt that good" and past "remove that one game" all the way to "ya but take away those FIVE games and he wasnt that good."
except, that doesnt even fly, bc 66 yards per game comes out to 1056. seems fine to me considering you just removed all of his great performances.
and as for sucking last yr, he had 522 yfs in 6 games. seems fine.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Teams play games against less than stellar defenses every year - so now we're going to throw out 5 games a year?
Mozeta
Footballguy
Fair enough, but drafting a guy in the early rounds based on a body of work that includes only a small handful of good games from two years ago and who last year was awful, no matter how you try to spin it, is setting your team up for more disappointment. Even if you say I was cherry picking stats, what I did see last year was a 1st round fantasy draft pick do pretty much nothing, and then after he got hurt had not one but two back ups step in and outperform him. Remember, I was more focusing on the comment that guys like Gio, Spiller, Bell, and Stacy are less talented running backs than Martin, and that is simply false no matter how you spin it.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Prove that it's false.Mozeta said:
Arguing which back is more talented than the other is pointless. Talent is a generic, catch-all, term that can not be truly quantified.Mozeta said:
As far as Martin, he disappointed owners last year for sure, but in reality.. he had 2 good games, 2 average games, and 2 bad games. He was mired in a terrible situation however, with Freeman playing his way out of the NFL, and then Glennon being thrown to the wolves. There was also the constant circus that was the Greg Schiano regime, which certainly didn't help matters. Rainey and James did have some decent games after Martin went down, but part of that could be attributed to the offense overall stabilizing after Glennon became more comfortable.
Martin's rookie season was outstanding, I don't care how you try to break the numbers down. That, combined with a very successful college career, an early selection for a RB in the modern NFL draft, all tell me that he is more than just some slappy who lucked his way into one of the more impressive rookie seasons ever by a RB. He also passes the eyeball test for me, and many who have watched a lot of him, with flying colors.
Martin may never reach his rookie season again, but I don't think he is nearly as bad as some on this board like to portray him. What can be said when comparing him to Spiller, Stacy, Bell, and Gio... is he had a better than season in his rookie year than any of them, and better than anything Spiller has done in multiple years.
Mozeta
Footballguy
Martin had a spectacular year where he averaged 4.6 ypc and 3 receptions per game at 9.6 yards per reception. Last year in 6 games Martin dropped to 3.6 ypc and averaged 2 receptions per game at 5.5 yards per reception. He also scored only 1 TD in those 6 games. I’m assuming you are counting his 144 yards rushing on 29 carries with 0 receptions for 0 yards as one of his “good” games. I’ll give you that, it was a good game, but in PPR I like for my RB1 drafted as a top 5 pick to get me at least 15 points per game when they have a good game. 14 points on their best day doesn’t cut it for a top 5 pick. I can’t find what you are considering his other “good” game from last year. Maybe the one where he scored a TD and had 65 yards rushing on 24 carries and 2 receptions for a total of -1 yards? I’m not sure.
Last year after Martin got hurt I thought maybe he just hadn’t gotten warmed up yet, but then Mike James came in and averaged 4.9 ypc in 4 games behind the same line and facing the Panthers and Seahawks in two of those games. I thought maybe he just got lucky, but then Bobby Rainey stepped in and while he only averaged 3.9 ypc he amassed 6 TD’s in 8 games which isn’t that great except for the fact that it's 6x more TD’s than Martin had.
Spiller had a horrible year in which he played with a high ankle sprain and averaged 4.6 ypc and 2 receptions per game at 5.6 yards per reception.
Two years ago when Spiller played while healthy he averaged 6 yards per carry and 2.7 receptions per game at 10.6 yards per reception.
A hurt Spiller is on par with Martin at his best.
Stacy averaged 3.9 ypc and 2.3 receptions for 5.4 yards per receptions, but also scored 8 TD and almost averaged a TD per game.
I’m not pimping Spiller, Stacy, or even James and Rainey here, I’m just trying to show that Martin, even at his best, is not necessarily more talented than Spiller, Stacy, or any of those other guys who were called out as being “less talented than Martin” and “not even worth mentioning” when talking about a grouping of similar RB’s. To say Gio, Spiller, Bell and Stacey shouldn’t even be mentioned along with Martin when it comes to talent is just not being honest.
We all saw what Martin did last year and how his backups came in and did as good or better. I think that might be the most telling and eye opening thing to take away from last year and how we project Martin this year. I just think people should be very cautious about drafting him at his current ADP if they are thinking/hoping he can get back to what he did his rookie year. I would gladly take Martin in the 5th round, but his ADP is round 3 right now and this year I think I would draft Spiller and Stacy before him.
That may not be the proof people want, but I challenge anyone to prove Gio, Spiller, Bell, and Stacey are less talented than Martin.
When referencing good games, I was talking about how he well he played football. Strictly fantasy, he was average or below average in every game for ppr, I concede that.
The arguments for James and Rainey are overlooking a lot of variables, I just don't find them valid. We will have to agree to disagree.
A hurt Spiller is on par with Martin at his best only in ypc. Spiller at his best was 200+ less yards from scrimage, 6 less catches, and 4 less TD's than Martin at his best. Let's compare apples to apples, and again, stop picking random numbers out of context to make a point.
Again, the more talented argument cannot be proven. We can look at numbers, history, pedigree... etc, but you cannot prove more talented. For what it's worth, by every measure, Doug Martin is superior to Zac Stacy, except for size I guess.
I'm not going to change your opinion on Martin, and that's fine, but I do feel compelled to defend Martin when you use numbers out of context, and declare opinions as facts.
Mozeta
Footballguy
Round Drafted - Martin 1, Stacy 5
Combine Stats
40yd Dash - Martin 4.46, Stacy 4.53
Bench Reps - Martin 28, Stacy 27
Vertical Jump - Martin 36, Stacy 33
20yd Shuttle - Martin 4.16, Stacy 4.17
3 Cone - Martin 6.79, Stacy 6.70 (woops)
NFL Stats (per game, since they've played different number of games)
Rush Yds - Martin 86.8, Stacy 69.5
Rush YPC - Martin 4.3, Stacy 3.9
Rush TD PG - Martin 0.54, Stacy 0.50
Rec Yds - Martin 24.5, Stacy 10.1
Rec PG - Martin 2.8, Stacy 1.9
Rec TD - Martin 0.05, Stacy 0.7
Those are facts, not opinions. For what it's worth, you can call gotcha on 3 Cone and rec TD pg if you like, but if I wanted to really compare apple's to apple's, they both scored 1 rec TD in their rookie season. My point is proven however, Doug Martin by most any measurable that matters for RB's, is superior to Zac Stacy.
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MoveToSkypager
Footballguy
Mozeta
Footballguy
fixed
Wow, talking about cherry picking stats. How about we not use the stats from games where Stacy didn't even play? Remember, he wasn't the starter or even playing at the beginning of the season For all intensive purposes Stacy played in 12 games last year not 16. and just so I don't look like I'm selectively picking stats, Stacy's Rec TD per game is not 0.7, but 0.08.
I realize Martin had a good first season, but last year he averaged 3.6 YPC and .166 rushing TD's per game along with 2 receptions and 11 receiving yards and 0 receiving TD's per game. I also realize had he stayed healthy he could have had another single game where he rushed for 251 yards and 4 TD to help even out his fantastic season of mediocrity, but it's highly unlikely he ever has another game like that based on what I saw last year.
Now where you might have me is Martin doing 28 bench reps to Stacy's 27. That is huge and pretty much can make or break a RB in the NFL along with a .01 second difference in the 20 yard shuttle. Those two things are making me rethink my entire RB rankings and could move Martin up my board a round or two.
Why do I get the feeling that someone is trying to justify taking Martin in the 3rd round?
Zac Stacy played in 14 games, not 12, and I divided his numbers by that 14. If you want to just divide by the games he started as a rookie, I think Martin should get the same benefit. Either way, Martin was superior in every number except for Rec TD's per game, where they both had...1.
Again, you are playing with the numbers to strengthen your poor argument. Should we narrow this down to just games that the offensive game plan met your approval as well?
As far as combine stats,
Martin - http://www.nfldraftscout.com/ratings/dsprofile.php?pyid=70789&draftyear=2012&genpos=RB
Stacy - http://www.nfldraftscout.com/ratings/dsprofile.php?pyid=90027&draftyear=2013&genpos=RB
Again, keep trying, I am just posting the facts.
And no, I'm not trying to justify taking Martin anywhere in a draft. I just hate misinformation, or again... opinions portrayed as fact on this board.
Look, you don't like Martin, again.. that's fine. I am just pointing out that Martin is not the slug you are portraying him to be.
Again, you are playing with the numbers to strengthen your poor argument. Should we narrow this down to just games that the offensive game plan met your approval as well?
As far as combine stats,
Martin - http://www.nfldraftscout.com/ratings/dsprofile.php?pyid=70789&draftyear=2012&genpos=RB
Stacy - http://www.nfldraftscout.com/ratings/dsprofile.php?pyid=90027&draftyear=2013&genpos=RB
Again, keep trying, I am just posting the facts.
And no, I'm not trying to justify taking Martin anywhere in a draft. I just hate misinformation, or again... opinions portrayed as fact on this board.
Look, you don't like Martin, again.. that's fine. I am just pointing out that Martin is not the slug you are portraying him to be.
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Mr Non Sequitur
Footballguy
Free $$$ wherever you steal him. People seem to forget his rookie year and some monster games that started to evoke some other RBs we used to see routinely explode from time to time. How many RBs in the league can actually rip off a 30-40 point game and single handedly turn the game around these days? Martin has that on his resume. I forgive him for the disaster last year and I believe Lovie Smith is gonna use him a lot.
Mozeta
Footballguy
Actually I'm not knocking Martin or pimping Stacy. I'm merely pointing out what really happened in real life, not cooking the numbers like you claim. You want to include stats from Stacy where he stood on the sideline and wore a uniform as a game where he played. I'm actually looking at reality, I'm not making anything up. He actually played NFL football in 13 games and that is if you include his first game in the NFL where he got 1 carry for 4 yards. I don't include that game and I'm not trying to be sneaky about it. Not because I'm selectively picking and choosing stats, but because it's not reasonable. Now I'm sure I watched that first game but I had never heard of Zac Stacy at the time and I'm not even sure if Jeff Fisher had either because he only got one carry. Maybe he was in there on a few snaps or played special teams a little, but he was not in the game plan on offense. After that one carry in his first game he didn't get a single carry until week 5. So no, I don't count the first 4 games because that would not be logical.
Again, I don't have a dog in this fight nor do I care. I'm merely pointing out that Stacy, Spiller, and Gio can all be mentioned as being in the same talent level as Martin. The statement made that I originally commented about was that these guys didn't even deserved to be mentioned along with Martin and clearly I've proven that false. If you want to say Martin is better because he did 28 bench reps to Stacy's 27, then fine, Martin is better and I concede. But Stacy isn't far behind and can be in the conversation at least.
Again, I don't have a dog in this fight nor do I care. I'm merely pointing out that Stacy, Spiller, and Gio can all be mentioned as being in the same talent level as Martin. The statement made that I originally commented about was that these guys didn't even deserved to be mentioned along with Martin and clearly I've proven that false. If you want to say Martin is better because he did 28 bench reps to Stacy's 27, then fine, Martin is better and I concede. But Stacy isn't far behind and can be in the conversation at least.
Beerguzzler
Footballguy
Choo choo #####es full speed ahead!!!
Congrats to anyone that got him outside the 1st round.
Congrats to anyone that got him outside the 1st round.
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SameSongNDance
Footballguy
You're projecting him nudge out a current consensus top 12 picks this year? Is this PPR? What are your projections?
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
mankins and possibly incognito?
Beerguzzler
Footballguy
I put him on par with Lacy in the 5-6 range. 2 stud WRs. Improved TE play with Sefarian-Jenkins (who can actually block). Competent QB play. Adding Mankins gives them an elite run blocking OG.
Beerguzzler
Footballguy
A bit? They went from possibly the worst, to an elite run blocking OG. Hardly "a bit."
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Beerguzzler
Footballguy
Just so there's some justification for my comments. PFF had him as the 4th best run blocking OG.
Football outsiders provides more numbers. NE was the top run blocking line. Over the LT/LG/C zones they were 1st and 2nd in adjusted line yards.
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ol
It's a huge upgrade.
Football outsiders provides more numbers. NE was the top run blocking line. Over the LT/LG/C zones they were 1st and 2nd in adjusted line yards.
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ol
It's a huge upgrade.
