dickey moe
Fingerpicker
It's a conundrum I'd like to have.
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Doug Martin vs Jamaal Charles (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Kizman
- Start date
silentcoach
Footballguy
As I mentioned before, what is tough to determine is Martin's projections because we only have 1 year of data. How do we determine a projection of a second year player? I have NO idea. But the following is what I would do, I would probably take away his 2 worst and 2 best games because this would leave me with an average of how he played all season.....what do I come up with...
1359 yards 49 rec 459 yards and 8 tds
This seems like a safe projection for Martin. You can increase or decrease on what you think is fair, or what improvements you see. However, because we only have 1 year of data you can go back and adjust or SOS, etc.
I would probably increase his touchdowns to at least 10 because Martin was not the goaline back the first half of the season (Blount was).
1359 yards 49 rec 459 yards and 10 tds
What a player did 1 year may or may not be his floor/ceiling--we simply do NOT know because we do not have enough data. But if I wanted a true floor, I would probably take away his 4 best games. I'm not saying those games did not exist, but I want to know, absent injury, and with zero improvement, what Martin would give me.
the WORST I should expect from Martin would be
1064 yards 47 receptions for 467 yards and 7 tds (uppped his touchdowns to 7).
You'll notice the rec and rec yards seem about the same and the only thing that differs is tds and yards.
Again, this would only be a floor given how he did last year. The above assumes he did not improve etc, so you can adjust it, but it gives you a feel to what a floor of a 1 year player would be based on their performance for only 1 season.
1359 yards 49 rec 459 yards and 8 tds
This seems like a safe projection for Martin. You can increase or decrease on what you think is fair, or what improvements you see. However, because we only have 1 year of data you can go back and adjust or SOS, etc.
I would probably increase his touchdowns to at least 10 because Martin was not the goaline back the first half of the season (Blount was).
1359 yards 49 rec 459 yards and 10 tds
What a player did 1 year may or may not be his floor/ceiling--we simply do NOT know because we do not have enough data. But if I wanted a true floor, I would probably take away his 4 best games. I'm not saying those games did not exist, but I want to know, absent injury, and with zero improvement, what Martin would give me.
the WORST I should expect from Martin would be
1064 yards 47 receptions for 467 yards and 7 tds (uppped his touchdowns to 7).
You'll notice the rec and rec yards seem about the same and the only thing that differs is tds and yards.
Again, this would only be a floor given how he did last year. The above assumes he did not improve etc, so you can adjust it, but it gives you a feel to what a floor of a 1 year player would be based on their performance for only 1 season.
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I'm all over it. I now know three of my draft's orders, I have 1.4, 1.2, and 1.4. And I already had a 1.3 where I took Martin, but it was basically a coin flip with Charles. I am guaranteed to own both this year, no way they are both available both times I pick 4th.
Freaking crazy picks, five leagues all between 2nd and 4th picks.
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TwinTurbo
Footballguy
I see some folks projecting Charles for another 280+ carry season. Wasn't last season the only time he ever went over 280 carries in his college or pro career? Charles is also listed at 200lbs and may play lighter. Martin plays about 15-20lbs heavier in a compact Ray Rice/MJD mold. I think 250-260 carries for Charles seems about right given his playing style and the way Reid used RB's like Westbrook and McCoy.
I'm torn between both, but I give a slight edge to Martin just due to the fact that he's younger and may prove to be more durable. I love the home run hitters like Charles, but Martin seems like the slightly safer pick and may even have more upside. What I saw from him last year was a rookie that took a few games to figure it out and then boom. With Charles, no question there is plenty of boom too, a crazy high YPC, and a threat to score on any play. Pick one and be happy.
I'm torn between both, but I give a slight edge to Martin just due to the fact that he's younger and may prove to be more durable. I love the home run hitters like Charles, but Martin seems like the slightly safer pick and may even have more upside. What I saw from him last year was a rookie that took a few games to figure it out and then boom. With Charles, no question there is plenty of boom too, a crazy high YPC, and a threat to score on any play. Pick one and be happy.
steelerfan1
Footballguy
i was going to postsomething like this. i remeber owning charles and watching a lot of the games. i found myself holding my breath every hit he took, as a lot of times he would look shaken up. granted he played the games but it was always stressful watching him.TwinTurbo said:
martin looks like a little bowling ball that may be more durable.
Beerguzzler
Footballguy
Surprised that no one has mentioned that Reid hasn't run any rushing plays in two days of TC so far. He has brought his pass happy offense to KC.
Khy
Footballguy
Honestly, Charles has one injury on his record and it was a freak injury as nobody can predict someone hitting the down marker flag and tearing their ACL. Otherwise under normal NFL pressure he's held up fine throughout his career. Yes, that was the first year he had that many carries. Again though, the amount carries a RB gets has very little to do with the actual player and a lot more to do with the coaching staff.
silentcoach
Footballguy
Reid sure loves to pass. That is why I used his last 5 years to kind of get a feel for that Charles' touches. 265 carries seems about the median. Oddly enough, 265 is still more than he has averaged the last few years (239) when healthy. Charles should get A LOT more passing targets than he has in the past....though!
I'll say this though....for someone that is explosive when running the ball, his 8.4 y/r is rather meh in comparison
.
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LuckyOne
Footballguy
I just wish posters would make these questions polls so we could get a consensus instead of random comments that all boil down to the same observations:
Martin had the better season, Charles is proven if only by being in the league longer, and both players are in a better situation than last year.
I think they are very close, but a poll would actually give me a better idea what the consensus is.
Martin had the better season, Charles is proven if only by being in the league longer, and both players are in a better situation than last year.
I think they are very close, but a poll would actually give me a better idea what the consensus is.
But then you run into the problem/limitation of not knowing how close the people voting think they are/aren't, or how and why they came to that conclusion.
For example, when somebody says that without the two big games Martin was nothing more than an "average RB" with a "good rookie season", I throw their vote out in terms of using the results to help form/alter my own position
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Phlash
Footballguy
LuckyOne
Footballguy
5 options:
Martin by a good margin
Martin but it's close
Toss up
Charles but it's close
Charles by a good margin
LuckyOne
Footballguy
I think kc was dead last (or close to it) in passing last year, but near the top in rushing. Also, Charles hasn't been in camp. I think it's a matter of the passing offense needs practice and the running offense doesn't
Khy
Footballguy
Yeah, this seems like irrelevant news for a few reasons. The ones you mentioned and the fact that you have a new QB trying to build some timing chemistry with his new WRs and all of them trying to learn a brand new offensive system and playbook at the same time. Charles isn't going to show up at camp and suddenly forget how to see holes and move his legs. The passing game will probably be a massive portion of training camp for the Chiefs due to these facts.
silentcoach
Footballguy
I keep seeing people upset/perturbed that people want to throw out Martin's 2 big games.
I think people need to learn that the ONLY reason someone may do that is because we are trying to make projections of a second year player where we ONLY have 1 year of data. Like I pointed before, I would personally take away his 2 best games AND his 2 worst games to learn what we are working with.
Surely, you accept that ONE season does not create someone's floor NOR does it create someone's ceiling. If you want to take it one step further you can also readjust Martin's stats for SOS.
It is ignorant to dismiss someone who rationalizes why they took out a few games when we are trying to predict a second year player. I would not take out his 2 best games only because I want to show Martin "sucks." Instead, I would take out his top 2 and worst 2 to get a feel for what he averages, assuming no improvement--a safe projection. If I wanted a FLOOR, assuming no improvements, I would take his 4 best games out so that I, the drafter, would know what is the worst I can expect from Martin. It is not a bashing of any rb's talent to do this--it is just so you know what you are getting into when you draft a player.
We only have 1 season, so dealing with an average of data sounds reasonable.
I think people need to learn that the ONLY reason someone may do that is because we are trying to make projections of a second year player where we ONLY have 1 year of data. Like I pointed before, I would personally take away his 2 best games AND his 2 worst games to learn what we are working with.
Surely, you accept that ONE season does not create someone's floor NOR does it create someone's ceiling. If you want to take it one step further you can also readjust Martin's stats for SOS.
It is ignorant to dismiss someone who rationalizes why they took out a few games when we are trying to predict a second year player. I would not take out his 2 best games only because I want to show Martin "sucks." Instead, I would take out his top 2 and worst 2 to get a feel for what he averages, assuming no improvement--a safe projection. If I wanted a FLOOR, assuming no improvements, I would take his 4 best games out so that I, the drafter, would know what is the worst I can expect from Martin. It is not a bashing of any rb's talent to do this--it is just so you know what you are getting into when you draft a player.
We only have 1 season, so dealing with an average of data sounds reasonable.
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zamboni
Footballguy
Didn't realize that - pretty important piece of information to that no-rushing plays blurb.
WOW...this thread blew up....see what happens when you go out of town....I should of just posted a poll....Very interesting stuff....I read almost all of em....Has not changed my LEAN to Charles I really like the receptions bump expected and the additions of Reid and Smith....but will keep an eye on the preseason games to see what is looks like, because I would be happy with either one...
Wont be long now boys....Good Luck this year.
Wont be long now boys....Good Luck this year.
