Draft Darlings (1 Viewer)

[Joe Bryant]

I love Tony Romo this year.

That's all well and good except for the fact that it seems that EVERYONE loves Tony Romo this year. He's officially become a Draft Darling. And I don't mean anything bad is going on there as I believe that people are coming to this conclusion on their own - by basically doing what I've done - look at the facts.

But at some point, you start to take pause, don't you?

TE Lance Kendricks is the same way. You can't mention TE without people starting to gush over Kendricks. I love him too but at some point, you wonder if the value isn't off. As my friend Sigmund Bloom likes to say, it's where price intersects with performance. At least I think that's how he says it. Anyways, it's how I like to think about it. All players are like that (really all THINGS are like that) - there's a "sweet spot" where the price / cost intersects with the performance you receive for that price / cost.

But with all the talk over a guy like Romo being the great value, that starts to change as his price starts to rise.

What players do you see in this situation?

And what do you guys do about it? Am I "too close" to it and over reacting? ADP doesn't really seem to bear out what I'm feeling. I fully realize the Shark Pool is way more serious about FF than the average guy in a league. But I do sort of wonder what that delta is sometimes.

Sorry for the ramble here. It just kind of hit me that these guys I had seen as value now seem to be the most popular guys in the draft and I was wondering what you guys thought about that.

J

 

[Joe Bryant]

And to be clear, I'm not just talking about Romo and Kendricks. What other players do you see in this "draft darling" category? And how do you deal with the situation in a general sense?

J

 

[JHuber77]

Mark Ingram

Dez Bryant

 

[Tackling Dummies]

And how do you deal with the situation in a general sense?J

There's value in the players that the darling has moved past. Using Jermichael Finley, that just makes Owen Daniels a better bargain.

 

[gianmarco]

Denarius Moore

 

[Trizzler]

I think any fantasy player with an understanding of logic and reason can overlook popularity and judge true opportunity. Continuing with the Romo example, he started off the pre-season undervalued because the vast majority saw him as an "injury risk". But once he got back on the practice field and reminded us all that he has two very strong receivers, an elite TE, a new-look backfield lead by a guy with playmaking ability (who also seems to be collecting a lot of love lately), and a coach with a propensity to throw the ball. All in all, the stars appear to be lining up for Romo to have a huge season. The best part about it: up until this week, he was a bargain in any draft considering his potential for top 5 numbers.

Last year's most obvious case of pre-season groupie love was Arian Foster. Intelligent observers saw the opportunity that Foster had, remembered his game performances from 09, and pounced on the situation. Aside from Foster, another case of love x1000 before the season was Jamaal Charles. That obviously worked out pretty well for everybody - his camp performance gained a lot of attention and he lived up to the hype. His skills were obvious and those that paid close attention reaped the rewards.

The perfect example of unpredictability last year was Brent Celek. So much love for the guy- he was Kolb's roommate, they were closet lovers, great connection, etc. All the pieces seemed to be in place for him to have a great season, and the love-fest rightfully considered that. But no one in their right mind foresaw Celek being used primarily as a blocker once the resurection of Vick began. Is it right to regret selecting Celek? Not really, since several puzzle pieces had to fall together in order to bring about the demise of his season.

But to each, his own. The majority of casual fantasy players I've conversed with over the past few weeks are convinced Ochocinco will have a monster year. To me, this is just a blatant example of poor research and unrealistic expectations. Sure, he might live up to his 5th/6th round ADP, but more than that is a stretch and that predictions seems to be based solely on what Randy Moss did four years ago.

This year Mario Manningham should be the real surprise, as well as Felix Jones. Both have an amazing opportunity to produce far beyond their ADP.

Moral of the story: It's okay to love, just make sure your love is validated.

 

[3 hour lunch]

Denarius Moore

Julio Jones in redraft. Even non-FBGers are high on Jones. Probably not so much Kendricks, Moore and some of the other lesser know rooks. I think it come down to value, as you said. While you may be able to grab what you think is 5th round value in the 8th round when no one else in your league values that player the same way, you shouldn't take that same player in the 3rd round if someone else values him as a 4th rounder.

 

[Joe Bryant]

I think any fantasy player with an understanding of logic and reason can overlook popularity and judge true opportunity. Continuing with the Romo example, he started off the pre-season undervalued because the vast majority saw him as an "injury risk". But once he got back on the practice field and reminded us all that he has two very strong receivers, an elite TE, a new-look backfield lead by a guy with playmaking ability (who also seems to be collecting a lot of love lately), and a coach with a propensity to throw the ball. All in all, the stars appear to be lining up for Romo to have a huge season. The best part about it: up until this week, he was a bargain in any draft considering his potential for top 5 numbers.Last year's most obvious case of pre-season groupie love was Arian Foster. Intelligent observers saw the opportunity that Foster had, remembered his game performances from 09, and pounced on the situation. Aside from Foster, another case of love x1000 before the season was Jamaal Charles. That obviously worked out pretty well for everybody - his camp performance gained a lot of attention and he lived up to the hype. His skills were obvious and those that paid close attention reaped the rewards.The perfect example of unpredictability last year was Brent Celek. So much love for the guy- he was Kolb's roommate, they were closet lovers, great connection, etc. All the pieces seemed to be in place for him to have a great season, and the love-fest rightfully considered that. But no one in their right mind foresaw Celek being used primarily as a blocker once the resurection of Vick began. Is it right to regret selecting Celek? Not really, since several puzzle pieces had to fall together in order to bring about the demise of his season.But to each, his own. The majority of casual fantasy players I've conversed with over the past few weeks are convinced Ochocinco will have a monster year. To me, this is just a blatant example of poor research and unrealistic expectations. Sure, he might live up to his 5th/6th round ADP, but more than that is a stretch and that predictions seems to be based solely on what Randy Moss did four years ago.This year Mario Manningham should be the real surprise, as well as Felix Jones. Both have an amazing opportunity to produce far beyond their ADP.Moral of the story: It's okay to love, just make sure your love is validated.

J

 

[Wadsworth]

It's such a tricky situation with preseason hype. I find myself hoping players I have targeted as undervalued have bad games. It's a time where one beat writer's glowing report parleyed with an impressive preseason game can take a guy from undervalued to overvalued in a short period of time. I have to constantly remind myself to not lock in on players, but to lock in on players at certain spots in the draft. Because once you lock in on a player it's easy lose perspective and you end up drafting a "sleeper" in the 5th round.

 

[adrenaline]

Everytime 1 player rises another falls, it all comes out in the wash.

 

[cheese]

Normally, I think a lot of people are skeptical of hype even if it seems like the majority are on board. This year though, I think it will be different simply because of Foster. Last year, everyone heard the Foster hype for a couple weeks leading up to the draft. Depending what week you drafted, you either needed to use a 9th or as high as a 3rd on the guy. That is how fast his value was rising. Obviously, he won a ton of those people their leagues and left the rest wishing they'd listened. You just know that people are going to buy in to every bit of info they get this year.

 

[eaglezzz]

I think Beanie Wells should be on this list but isn't yet.

 

[pghrob]

Subscribers tend to be of the same mindset since our common denominator is this place. The early hype on Orange Julius drove up his ADP in rookie only drafts. Same with Denarius Moore.

In redrafts, I am buying into the undervalued propaganda that is Brandon Lloyd and Santonio Holmes - though it is not quite to the level of hype. Both are looking as though they are being drafted as WR2's but each has fairly good WR1 upside.

Lloyd finally showed he has "it" last season, and Holmes has had numerous flashes that he has "it" but never was looked to as a #1 or had 16 games in which to show he was "it" even if he was looked at as the WR 1 last year after the trade and suspension.

This is the year for both of them to prove they are not flukes and by all accounts from the Denver TC reports, $$$Lloyd us well money. And Holmes got the big contract and a full 16 game schedule with the 3rd year franchise QB. So all is lining up for both of these guys to have a stellar season.

Interestingly, the hype train has not taken off on these two and so perhaps their status as undervalued WR's remains intact...which is just fine with me. So let's just carry on and not try to promote the idea that these two are undervalued (anymore than I just did).

Leave the cats in the bag.

 

[thriftyrocker]

I think Beanie Wells should be on this list but isn't yet.

Beanie was a great contrarian value pick before the Ryan Williams injury. I was able to get him in the 7/8 rounds with no problem. In a mock draft I did for another site, I got Beanie 6 picks after Ryan Williams. It was a complete Ben Tate vs. Arian Foster situation. Perhaps without half the upside, but still a legitimate comparison.I don't think the value has swayed yet. The hype is growing, but those who doubted his talent still doubt it. I think he's still good value in rds 4/5/6 and would prefer him in redraft to guys like Mathews, Addai, Grant, Miami RBs.

 

[David Yudkin]

I think a lot has to do with each individual drafter. I personally would not draft guys leaps and bounds earlier than I think they should go based on the fact that I would rather take a proven commodity that has fallen in the draft and let someone else take the risk whether or not some phenom may actually coming through.

For example, if PLAYER X is still on the board and is all but a lock for 950-1000 yards and 6 TD as a WR, I would take him in a heartbeat over a guy that IF things worked out perfectly could be a 1200/10 guy. (The presumption here is that the phenom is getting buzz and shooting up draft boards even though he is currently his team's 4th receiver and has no track record.)

IMO, there may not be anything inherently wrong with reaching for a guy, but where I see many owners go wrong is they load up on picks like that. So they end up with a team of guys that are wings and prayers or rookies (redraft leagues). They usually don't have a lot of depth either. Sure, maybe they hit on that 1200/10 WR once in a while, but you could have found that same guy on the waiver wire (like a Brandon Lloyd).

Everyone's strategy is different, but I'd rather have a WR corps 5-6 deep of fantasy WR3s than two proven fantasy receivers and 5 lottery tickets. I used to thank my lucky stars when no one would draft the Eddie Kennison's, Derrick Mason's, Terry Glenn's, or Isaac Bruce's of the world, as you could get a gift WR2-3 for peanuts as everyone salivated over the next big thing at receiver. Those were guys that you could pick up late and would rank 20-30 intervals higher at WR than they were drafted.

To each his own, as they say.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Felix Jones, once ridiculously undervalued, is approaching fairly valued - probably on the way to draft darling. Denarius Moore came to mind as well.

 

[baconisgood]

My general approach is that I don't like to use high draft picks on "upside" players. I won't take Jamaal Charles over Adrian Peterson and I won't draft Hakeem Nicks or Calvin Johnson over Larry Fitzgerald. I fully accept that they could finish higher than my player but the mantra "you can't win your league in the first round, but you can lose it" is based on the understanding that there is a lot more room for a high draft pick to under preform than to over preform.

Late round draft picks are the opposite- my 20th pick in the draft is nothing but upside, but of course by then you are grasping at straws. I feel the best value will always be in the 9th-12th rounds- when starting slots are filled but there are still guys like Lee Evans, Tolbert, or Mcgahee (to name a few this year) who could put up 3rd or 4th round pick stats. I also find it easier to actually get these guys on my team. If I am looking at a 5th rounder as my darling I have to take him in the 4th to be sure I get him or I don't get him 25-50% of the time (maybe more). That is a lot higher of a price than using a 9th or even an 8th rounder on a guy who has an ADP in the 10th.

Between the WW$ and 10-15th rounders I feel like I can get enough high upside guys on my team that a steady, best player/need approach early works well.

 

[elshagon]

Last year I was targeting guys such as Arian Foster, Roddy White and Nicks. I got White and Nicks a little earlier than I wanted and missed out on Foster. You can't really tell how far you'll have to reach for the guys you're targeting or have a good feeling about. It depends on what info and research the other guys in the league have done. It helps to know the tendencies of the other guys in the league plus which one's use FBG's. Those who come here will see the same guys hyped and you'll most likely have to reach to get them. I have no problem reaching for these players a little, but try and keep 2-3 other guys in mind in case they don't fall to me. In our league we draw names for draft position, when your name comes up you pick any spot available 1-12. I think long and hard which spots are best for getting the guys I want.

 

[eakfootball]

There's a reason that everyone is in love with them.

 

[Raiderfan32904]

I think we all have certain players we target in any draft, and some of it depends on your draft pick. But some players are "my guys". Guys I just have to have on my team. In recent years it was Adrian Peterson and Antonio Gates. I'd overpay or trade up to make this happen. But like Bloom said, value is all about the intersection of price and performance.

I had my first money draft last night, and resisted the temptation to take the 'homer' picks. I lucked into Darren McFadden in the 12 round last year only because I was a homer. But now in the first round, at pick 8, Jamaal Charles unexpectedly fell to me in PPR. The rest of my draft I resisted taking "my guys", but I look back on the complete team and I am deep at every position. These new guys could come to be "my guys".

Hyped guys I really liked but let slip by me were Jahvid Best, Mark Ingram (in one league, and I'm kicking myself for that one), Tampa Mike W., Mike Vick. But I've also had some unexpected guys that fell to me like Shonn Greene and Cedric Benson in the 6th round.

People who worry about the 'hyped' guy that slips through their fingers, need to evaluate whats on the board. Someone who should have gone earlier just got bubble sorted down. It's about finding the right value. It's best not be married to any single strategy or group of players just because you buy the hype. Often times if your team is strong enough, you can trade from a position of strength to get your "guys" if you really can't do without them.

 

[ConstruxBoy]

I think you stay away from most draft darlings in normal leagues, but grab them in contests like the subscriber contest. In most cases you want to maximize your value and margin of error when drafting and a draft darling is usually going to be overvalued/over drafted. So right away you're leaving yourself with little room for error if they are not as good as everyone thinks. Conversely, in contests like the subscriber contest it's better to go with the herd on most of the those players so that you match the possible upside while sharing the risk with so many other contestants.

 

[timschochet]

Joe, this is the main reason that I subscribe to your site year after year. Most of the people in my league are smart and they know what they're doing, but they tend to use more conventional sources prior to the draft, like ESPN or Yahoo. When you guys focus on a player it gives me a leg up. Last year I drafted Arian Foster and I picked up Peyton Hillis on waivers because of Footballguys, and those two players allowed me to win my league. This year I drafted Tony Romo, Mark Ingram, Greg Little, and Denarius based on your recommendations. Obviously, not all of them are going to work out. And sometimes I disagree with you guys: I think you currently have Chris Johnson ranked far too low (13th) and when the time came to draft, I ignored that and grabbed him as soon as I could.

But overall, my point is that I pay, and I use the Shark Pool, because I want to know what you "serious" FF players are thinking.

 

[FBG Moderator]

Joe, this is the main reason that I subscribe to your site year after year. Most of the people in my league are smart and they know what they're doing, but they tend to use more conventional sources prior to the draft, like ESPN or Yahoo. When you guys focus on a player it gives me a leg up. Last year I drafted Arian Foster and I picked up Peyton Hillis on waivers because of Footballguys, and those two players allowed me to win my league. This year I drafted Tony Romo, Mark Ingram, Greg Little, and Denarius based on your recommendations. Obviously, not all of them are going to work out. And sometimes I disagree with you guys: I think you currently have Chris Johnson ranked far too low (13th) and when the time came to draft, I ignored that and grabbed him as soon as I could.But overall, my point is that I pay, and I use the Shark Pool, because I want to know what you "serious" FF players are thinking.

Thanks.J

 

[solorca]

This is a little off-topic, but is D. Moore really climbing up the charts that much? According to the recent ADP data, he's showing at a 16th or 17th round pick...certainly not an overrated level. Is the ADP data wrong, or are you guys just talking about rookie drafts?

 

[LHUCKS]

There's two different kinds of ADP...your typical frat buddy/neighborhood/work draft. In these drafts there's a good chance that Romo slides and he is real value.

And then there's the fantasy nerd drafts(yes, I am one) where every guy in the league knows what the value plays are.

The ADPs for players like Ingram/Romo/Kendricks/Moore/McCoy etc. etc. are VASTLY different in these types of leagues.

I think that's where we get a little lost on this messageboard sometimes. Not to mention ADP in "expert" leagues can change RAPIDLY. Kendricks is a great example, even Colt McCoy. I can promise you their ADP has skyrocketed in FFPC, whereas in your hometown league a guy like Kendricks may actually go undrafted.

This has been some of my annoyance with the Ingram is "value" chatter...guy is solidly going in the third round in drafts.

 

[BassNBrew]

J,

I see all the chatter, but haven't seen these guys getting drafted substantially higher in FBG based leagues outside of Moore. Romo consistantly seems to be the 7th QB off the board all year and has now maybe moved to 6th due to Manning's questionable situation. I think you're getting more wrapped up is the conversation and strong opinions and they are leaving you with an impression that's not reality. The guys with strong opinion are typically going to dominate the discussion. While a Romo is undervalued thread would likely appear on these boards, no one is going to start a Romo is fairly valued thread.

 

[Gr00vus]

This has been some of my annoyance with the Ingram is "value" chatter...guy is solidly going in the third round in drafts.

He'd be value there if the person had assigned a high probability of Ingram performing at a round 2 or round 1 level. I'm not saying I'm one of those guys, but I could see the thought behind it.In general, I get wary of bandwagons that get too full on here. Sometimes they end up like Arian Foster, sometimes they end up like Kevan Barlow (or even Robert Ferguson - o.k. bad example, that was a 6 person bandwagon). I'll circle the bait for a while and try to take in what's being said, examine which other sharks are biting and see if there are enough whose opinion I respect showing positive interest. Even then, the most important thing is to have the discipline to not draft the guy ahead of the range at which (you think) he'll be value. Sometimes you have to let that bait go to allow yourself to be rewarded with an even bigger catch.

Take Denarius Moore. In redraft he's a tail ender. If you reach for him early because you fall in love with him it's probably not going to pay off. He may have a ton of talent, but he's a 3rd round rookie, his opportunity situation is extremely murky due to a collection of other possibly serviceable receivers, he's on a team with a well below average QB, a passing game that hasn't been productive in years, a very good running game and a defense that will keep scores low (yes, even without Asamougha). If I'm drafting him in like the 15th round or higher I'm probably ####### up.

Keep it sane and remember, like hot women, there will be other darlings around for you to pick up if people overpay for your main crushes. In fact, that's where opportunity often lies.

 

[LHUCKS]

In general, I get wary of bandwagons that get too full on here.

As do I...which is why I often take the contrarian viewpoint if I sense the hype goes a little overboard. Ingram and Moore are a few recent examples.You're the most popular guy on the messageboard if you call every player value, but if you argue 50% of the players are overvalued you're being difficult and are deemed a

 

[scrumptrulescent]

There's a reason that everyone is in love with them.

I passed on Arian Foster last year in the late 3rd round.

 

[Gr00vus]

You're the most popular guy on the messageboard if you call every player value, but if you argue 50% of the players are overvalued you're being difficult and are deemed a

I haven't thought about this too much, but I find it unlikely that 50% of the players could be overvalued to any significant degree. Some guys actually do earn their weight, some guys underperform, some guys over perform, probably near a 33% ratio for each too. Some super stathead like Wheelhouse or Chase could probably confirm/deny this.The thing I find funny is the sentiment (that seems prevalent) that if a guy isn't value he's not worth talking about. Sometimes you have to buy in at par. Again intuitively, I'd bet that if every guy you drafted performed at exactly the level commensurate with where you drafted him, you'd probably do very well. There's nothing wrong with getting 5th round value from your 5th round pick (as long as your other guys are earning somewhere near their keep too), but it seems like people can't be happy with that. Sure you'd like some upside for all your guys, but it's not realistic. As the draft goes along, particularly the back half (ignoring defenses - take whoever's left and work the waiver wire), I definitely am more focused on value. Then I'm looking more boom or bust. Either they hit, are a hold for an anticipated situational improvement (i.e. injury ), or I have an expendable guy to cycle out for waiver wire pick ups. I've never been a big fan of holding on to solid, below average compilers. If you have to start more than one of those guys your team is probably not going to do very well.

 

[LHUCKS]

You're the most popular guy on the messageboard if you call every player value, but if you argue 50% of the players are overvalued you're being difficult and are deemed a

I haven't thought about this too much, but I find it unlikely that 50% of the players could be overvalued to any significant degree. Some guys actually do earn their weight, some guys underperform, some guys over perform, probably near a 33% ratio for each too. Some super stathead like Wheelhouse or Chase could probably confirm/deny this.

very few players actually perform equal to or above where they're projected at.At least 50% of players are overvalued. "half" was being generous.

 

[glumpy]

And how do you deal with the situation in a general sense?J

There's value in the players that the darling has moved past. Using Jermichael Finley, that just makes Owen Daniels a better bargain.

That's it. We each have to decide for ourselves what their relative values are, given both the numbers and the hype. At some point if a player becomes such a media darling that the hype exceeds the numbers then there will be real value developing somewhere else.

 

[mrip541]

I think my answer to the poll depends on the specific player.

 

[Gr00vus]

You're the most popular guy on the messageboard if you call every player value, but if you argue 50% of the players are overvalued you're being difficult and are deemed a

I haven't thought about this too much, but I find it unlikely that 50% of the players could be overvalued to any significant degree. Some guys actually do earn their weight, some guys underperform, some guys over perform, probably near a 33% ratio for each too. Some super stathead like Wheelhouse or Chase could probably confirm/deny this.

very few players actually perform equal to or above where they're projected at.At least 50% of players are overvalued. "half" was being generous.

Proof?

 

[solorca]

I get the point, for sure. Last year was my first year on the site and I bought into the hype on a number of players. After the draft, I was told that my team was a "virtual lock" to go to the playoffs, based on my selections. I was thrilled.

I did eventually make the playoffs, but it was because of some trades and waiver wire pickups..certainly not my drafted roster.

QB - Eli Manning, Kyle Orton

RB - Ray Rice, Jahvid Best, CJ Spiller, Marion Barber, Cadillac Williams, Kareem Huggins

WR - Miles Austin, Greg Jennings, Hines Ward, Devin Hester, Jabar Gaffney

TE - Heath Miller

By the end of the year, the only players left on my team were Ray Rice, Greg Jennings, and Eli Manning (although Kyle Orton started most games for me until he was benched).

 

[LHUCKS]

You're the most popular guy on the messageboard if you call every player value, but if you argue 50% of the players are overvalued you're being difficult and are deemed a

I haven't thought about this too much, but I find it unlikely that 50% of the players could be overvalued to any significant degree. Some guys actually do earn their weight, some guys underperform, some guys over perform, probably near a 33% ratio for each too. Some super stathead like Wheelhouse or Chase could probably confirm/deny this.

very few players actually perform equal to or above where they're projected at.At least 50% of players are overvalued. "half" was being generous.

Proof?

Hmmm...I don't think any of the sites keep their projections hanging around. We might have to do a best guess. I'll start another thread and take a random publications 2010 rankings/projections and see where it stands for 2010.This isn't going to be close.

 

[AB in DC]

You're the most popular guy on the messageboard if you call every player value, but if you argue 50% of the players are overvalued you're being difficult and are deemed a

I haven't thought about this too much, but I find it unlikely that 50% of the players could be overvalued to any significant degree. Some guys actually do earn their weight, some guys underperform, some guys over perform, probably near a 33% ratio for each too. Some super stathead like Wheelhouse or Chase could probably confirm/deny this.

very few players actually perform equal to or above where they're projected at.At least 50% of players are overvalued. "half" was being generous.

Proof?

Usually most projections don't factor in the possibility of injury. And lots of players on the draft board will be injured...

 

[Pigskin Fanatic]

You're the most popular guy on the messageboard if you call every player value, but if you argue 50% of the players are overvalued you're being difficult and are deemed a

I haven't thought about this too much, but I find it unlikely that 50% of the players could be overvalued to any significant degree. Some guys actually do earn their weight, some guys underperform, some guys over perform, probably near a 33% ratio for each too. Some super stathead like Wheelhouse or Chase could probably confirm/deny this.

very few players actually perform equal to or above where they're projected at.At least 50% of players are overvalued. "half" was being generous.

Proof?

Hmmm...I don't think any of the sites keep their projections hanging around. We might have to do a best guess. I'll start another thread and take a random publications 2010 rankings/projections and see where it stands for 2010.This isn't going to be close.

curious how this looks compared to fbg rankings, i'm pretty sure i have them for 2009, 2010. would i get in trouble for posting past year subscriber content?

 

[acapella]

I get the point, for sure. Last year was my first year on the site and I bought into the hype on a number of players. After the draft, I was told that my team was a "virtual lock" to go to the playoffs, based on my selections. I was thrilled.

I did eventually make the playoffs, but it was because of some trades and waiver wire pickups..certainly not my drafted roster.

QB - Eli Manning, Kyle Orton

RB - Ray Rice, Jahvid Best, CJ Spiller, Marion Barber, Cadillac Williams, Kareem Huggins

WR - Miles Austin, Greg Jennings, Hines Ward, Devin Hester, Jabar Gaffney

TE - Heath Miller

By the end of the year, the only players left on my team were Ray Rice, Greg Jennings, and Eli Manning (although Kyle Orton started most games for me until he was benched).

If I recall, Jabar Gaffney was a Draft Darling last year. He ended up on a few of my rosters too.

 

[Macdaddy_2004]

I'm a sucker for draft darlings - right now I am debating who to take in the 3rd round Best, Ingram or Felix Jones - LOL.

Hillis is probably the pick but not enough FBG hype for me

 

[mdlane]

Mark Ingram - I've seen him go as high as early 2nd round.

Felix Jones - 3rd rounder, now.

Jahvid Best - moving into high 2nd round until his last concussion.

Dez Bryant

Jermichael Finley - Going before or more than (auction) Gates in my drafts

 

[Soaring Eagle]

I think any fantasy player with an understanding of logic and reason can overlook popularity and judge true opportunity. Continuing with the Romo example, he started off the pre-season undervalued because the vast majority saw him as an "injury risk". But once he got back on the practice field and reminded us all that he has two very strong receivers, an elite TE, a new-look backfield lead by a guy with playmaking ability (who also seems to be collecting a lot of love lately), and a coach with a propensity to throw the ball. All in all, the stars appear to be lining up for Romo to have a huge season. The best part about it: up until this week, he was a bargain in any draft considering his potential for top 5 numbers.

Last year's most obvious case of pre-season groupie love was Arian Foster. Intelligent observers saw the opportunity that Foster had, remembered his game performances from 09, and pounced on the situation. Aside from Foster, another case of love x1000 before the season was Jamaal Charles. That obviously worked out pretty well for everybody - his camp performance gained a lot of attention and he lived up to the hype. His skills were obvious and those that paid close attention reaped the rewards.

The perfect example of unpredictability last year was Brent Celek. So much love for the guy- he was Kolb's roommate, they were closet lovers, great connection, etc. All the pieces seemed to be in place for him to have a great season, and the love-fest rightfully considered that. But no one in their right mind foresaw Celek being used primarily as a blocker once the resurection of Vick began. Is it right to regret selecting Celek? Not really, since several puzzle pieces had to fall together in order to bring about the demise of his season.

But to each, his own. The majority of casual fantasy players I've conversed with over the past few weeks are convinced Ochocinco will have a monster year. To me, this is just a blatant example of poor research and unrealistic expectations. Sure, he might live up to his 5th/6th round ADP, but more than that is a stretch and that predictions seems to be based solely on what Randy Moss did four years ago.

I do not agree with the ochocinco comment...it's not just moss...it's what happened with branch last year as well...it's also what bellicheck has done with many other veteran players....

 

[RavenLunatic]

I think we all want consensus on our gut feelings so we don't feel stupid when it doesn't work out.

I remember the Kevan Barlow hype...and bit. Change of scenery often lead to a BOOM (Priest Holmes, Thomas Jones, Cedric Benson). Or a KA-BOOM (Marshall Faulk, Ricky Williams).

This year my gut is on Tim Hightower. Sometimes the storyline just works out nicely in the NFL. Skins play Cardinals in Week 2 before a Monday Night game against the Cowboys...talk about setting up Hightower for success and primetime storyline.

 

[TwinTurbo]

In the FFPC drafts I have seen, there is a lot of Detroit Lion draft darling love for Megatron, Best, and Pettigrew.

 

[FantasyTrader]

Original thought trickles up and gains momentum. The industry is now big enough that smaller sites focused on 365 days/year FF coverage plant seeds very early in the offseason and as the season nears, those ideas are picked up, expounded upon and distributed to the masses by major media. So what was a hidden nugget in April is overkill by August. It becomes an industry-wide groupthink.

 

[RavenLunatic]

...and another big preseason game for Hightower. Helu didnt play at all in the 1st half.

So much for keeping him quiet.

Last week on his 58 yard run he said "I've got to score on that run". This week he finishes the run with the TD.