1) Kevin Jones
Tremendous speed and quickness, built for turf. Should be able to beat out Pinner, but there is a real RBBC possibility if Jones proves unable to get the short yards (even Barry had a GL back). The Lions offense is greatly improving talent-wise, but there is no way to know how they will gel. They now have arguably better skill positions in Harrington/Williams/Rogers/Jones than Mariucci had in SF (although all four of the key guys are very unproven). Jones also needs to get away from his father. Seriously.
2) Tatum Bell
I was not in love with this guy, but he got drafted into the perfect system for a speedy one-cut back. The similarities to Portis coming out of college are eerie. Beating out Hearst isn't really a long-term issue, and I think the writing is on the wall for Griffin with this pick. Fumblitis concerns in college but you almost never see a good back's NFL career derailed due to fumbles (although you hear endless threats from the coaches). Said to have average vision, but you don't need great vision in the Denver system (I think--correct me if I am wrong). One downside with the Denver RB, in my opinion, is that they always get major injuries.
3) Steven Jackson
Jackson does not have home run speed. He is not the perfect back. He is a very solid all-around back, though, with high intelligence (for an RB) and good vision. I don't understand the Edge comparisons, as he lacks Edge's great speed or erstwhile cutting ability, but he reminds me a lot of Shaun Alexander. I think that Jackson probably has about 1 year of mentorship under Marshall (with 1-3 starts due to injury), and gets the gig next year. I am willing to wait a year for the keys to the Rams offense.
4) Julius Jones
I struggled putting this guy at #4, but I really think that the three above him have a solid chance to be top 5 FF backs in their careers. Julius Jones also has the chance, but I view his upside as closer to #10--still not too shabby. Jones has good all-around game and nice quickness and vision. Parcells seems to favor a workhorse back, and there is zero competition barring a trade, so Jones has the best short-term situation. The problems: Dallas does not have a good O Line, or a good offense period. While you can bet that Parcells and Jerry Jones want to improve those, it's not clear whether they will be able to, as they have substantial holes at all skill positions. I'm tempted to say that the smart play is to draft Julius Jones earlier than Jackson and then try to trade for Jackson after the rookie season, but that is pretty risky, as the Jackson owner may be in love with him.
5) Chris Perry
This is a controversial ranking, I'm sure. But Marvin drafted Perry in the first round above K Jones for a reason. Perry has gotten a lot of heat on these boards, but he is very similar to Jackson: a very good all-around back. As a Michigan fan, I've watched this guy a lot and he is clearly better than A Train, who has had good success in the NFL. Cincinatti is also a great offense, reminiscent of the Seahawks. The big question is whether Perry has a shot to be the starter. I was so wrong about Griffin that I am hesitant to make a prediction here. So there is a lot of risk here, but Perry has real potential to be a top 10 RB for a while.
6) Reggie Williams
Another WTF ranking. I recently argued that situation shouldn't matter much for WR's, but I just have bad vibes about Fitz in AZ and Roy in Detroit. Both have very talented WR's across the field from them, and it's hard to see how things shake out, especially since they both have unproven QB's. I could easily see Boldin, Fitz, Roy & Charles each having 1000 yards and 8 TD's making them the four most talented WR2's in fantasy football. As for Reggie, he is a very good WR, although probably not quite as good as Fitz or Roy. He does have an extraordinary young QB hurling him the ball, and he should be the #1 WR there for a while (although we said that about Charles & Anquan before). Great talent + Great QB + Soft division + Florida weather = great WR prospect.
7) Roy Williams
What can I say about this guy. I think that in all the Fitzgerald hype, people are forgetting just how good Roy Williams is. Reading articles about the prospects I was sure Fitzgerald was the best WR out there. But watching the highlights, Williams was just incredible. His speed, strength and determination to be great are extraordinary. Williams has real top-5 potential at WR, and my bet is that we look back at Roy Williams as the best WR out of the '03 an '04 classes. One problem with relying on highlights is that, well, they are just highlights, and they don't show you the times he doesn't show up. I've heard people say that Roy doesn't play hard all the time, but honestly who would play hard for Mack Brown? That said, he does have the potential to be another David Terrell, but basically I think he is just a more talented Andre Johnson.
8) Kellen Winslow the Second
I wish he had been drafted, well, anywhere but the Browns. This is probably the worst franchise in football right now, and my opinion of Butch Davis could not be lower. However, Jeff Garcia at QB helps a lot and he likes the shorter throws where Kellen should excel. There is no question that Kellen is a great talent and I think we'd all be surprised if he isn't a top 5 FF TE for a while (although he may struggle for the first year or two, and may hold out).
9) Larry Fitzgerald
No, I don't think he'll last to #9 in any leagues. I am officially sold on Fitz's talent and character. He reminds me a lot of Marvin Harrison without the speed and the Jerry Rice comparisons are also fair. He also has a coach who is in love with the guy, so he should get a lot of balls thrown his way. I trust Denny Green's judgment on QB's more than mine, so we'll see. I haven't really seen much of McNown. However, as EBF has pointed out, Fitz did struggle mightily against the one "NFL" defense he faced, the hurricanes, and I don't know how he will do against NFL corners. I think that we are looking at one or two years of struggle (800 & 6) before he really breaks out as a top 10 WR. Let's remember that he was only a stud at college for one year; he still has a lot to learn (but he does have the ability and drive to do so)
9B) Maurice Clarett (if he makes it, depending on the team)
10) Eli Manning
I don't like taking rookie QB's in dynasty, but hey he's a Manning so it's worth a gamble (no, I'm not kidding). His situation is worse than it seems--by the time Eli has learned the NFL game, Toomer will be a bit old. Shockey is nice but not enough to make a QB great. The Giants also have no offensive line and have no first round pick until 2006. They also play in cold weather, which is never good for a dynasty QB.
11) Rashaun Woods
I really like this guy. He apparently ran the best routes in college football, and has very large hands. He also has good size. Speed is neither a strength nor a weakness. I do not think this guy is just a possession receiver. I expect him to be the #1 receiver in a good vertical offense (I think SF will be fine). I will never understand taking Michael Jenkins over this guy.
12) Lee Evans
Tremendous, tremendous speed. Great hands, supposedly the strongest in the draft. I think of him as a better version of Santana Moss or Steve Smith, and a worse version of Chris Chambers. Playing alongside Moulds should help both of them. I have no opinion on Losman. I don't like the fact that he plays in the toughest defensive division in the NFL.
13) Michael Clayton
Keyshawn Johnson without the attitude. Or if you are feeling more charitable, a taller Hines Ward (I think that is quite charitable, but plausible). I think Gruden would have greatly preferred Evans. I like Clayton's character, and I think he will probably live up to his potential; I just don't think his potential is that high.
13B) Mike Williams (if he makes it)
14) Cedric Cobbs
I don't like Cobbs' situation at all. In MMQB King mentioned that the pats traded for Dillon because they expect 3 1200-yard seasons out of the guy. That is a long time to sit on an RB that is talented but not all-world. This is largely because I don't like the prospects that follow very much, and Dillon has enough recent injury / sanity issues that Cobbs could get some starts. I don't know how well Cobbs catches the ball; if he can't catch, it hurts his FF value a lot in NE.
15) Michael Jenkins
My hunch is that this guy will be a bust. He has good measurables, but he never really had the commitment to be great in college. I think he and price will be the overrated and overrateder tandem in Atlanta, but then if Vick is ever going to live up to his potential, a big speedy back like Jenkins could be the beneficiary.
16) Devard Darling
I think somebody will step up in Baltimore this year, and my guess is Darling. He seemed to have a lot of physical talent in WSU, and he's had to mature a lot in life, so I think he's very mentally ready for the pros. I can't say that I like Boller (side note: why are berkeley athletes always such idiots? I cringed throughout his "cold pizza" thing during the draft), but again, Darling alone seems to have #1 potential on that team (although Moore has a shot too).
17) Ben Troupe
I don't like drafting TE's unless they seem like real studs. TE is such a situation-dependent position; it seems like the true studs are the #1 receiving options on their teams. I don't see Troupe beating out Mason or Bennett in Tennessee.
T-100) Greg Jones, Ben Watson, Michael Turner
Yuck. Sorry guys. Better luck in your next lives.
I'd expect the top 3 QBs all to be top 10, with Losman around 12-13.
