This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!
You're gonna have to hit on sleeper RB's to have a chance. Would have rather seen you go RB instead of Boldin. The fact that Calvin fell to 8 tells me the other owners are RB lovers, so always interesting to see an owner go the other direction by loading up on WR and QB. Can you post the link once the draft is complete, so we can see how things turned out ?
Well, my experience is that it is real dangerous to take an extra QB in the 6th round for trade bait when one is weak at the RB position in a start 2RB league. Now, here, since you were approached to trade Romo, it looks like you were smart - although, I might call it lucky since not everyone is of the opinion that Romo is a Top 5 QB (and I really like Romo, I also have him at #5, but in the 2nd tier of QBs). Anyway, if you get a better RB than what was available for you at that juncture, then you obviously made the right move - although I don't think I would have rolled the dice in a start 2RB league as I would be afraid it would come back to bite me (a start 1 RB league? Yes). I probably would have opted for a RB in round 3 even though per most rankings Miles Austin would have been a better choice (I have concerns how the target mix is going to play out with Dez/Witten in the picture).
I agree, I likely don't have a great team to win this year, but here's the unique wrinkle of the league: you run a college fantasy team in concert with your NFL one, and when a player goes pro from your college team, you get to transfer him over. We will hold the college draft immediately after this draft, and it will be reverse order (I'll have the 4th pick). So I plan to load up on RBs in that draft to compensate and try to hit a home run.
TE's started to go off the board in the 5th-6th:5.01 Finley5.05 Gates5.07 Witten6.03 Clark6.04 Jimmy Graham6.11 Vernon DavisI decided early on that I could afford to wait and get some guys later, as I've got some in my mind as high potential guys.
I agree its a high risk proposition, but I think I managed to catch some fellow teams with their pants down in regard to their QB situation, as I wasn't the only person who started grabbing up extra QBs early. Now there are a couple of teams that are going to be hurting pretty badly at QB.I also decided to gamble with Beanie Wells in the 8th, so we'll see.
That was a gamble alright - I hope it turns out OK for you. I would have rather taken Ryan Williams - I am just completing a start-up draft, it is a start 1 RB PPR league and Williams went at 7.04, while Wells lasted until 12.10. My reading of the tea leaves is that Ryan was taken because the Cards have pretty given up on Wells, but some think (as you and Instinctive do) that he will retain the starting spot and at worst this will be some sort of RBBC.
Ryan Williams went at 5.06, to give you an indication of how quickly RBs went off the board.
Geez, that sounds like a wild draft, early runs on QBs and RBs (including rookies I guess). With this new information, I guess your pick wasn't that much of a gamble, although I would have like to have seen what your other options were besides Wells.
I just think we saw the same thing with DeAngelo Williams, Thomas Jones, sort of Benson, and others - highy touted new guy comes in, or relatively young guy with strong pedigree doesn't start it off on fire, but then the "vet" seems to finally have things click and he's off to the races.I feel like a first round RB who's had a couple injury issues but is healthy right now is a very solid bet, and exactly the bet I want to make when I load up on WRs.
Wow, still to this day? Man, I hope you're right, and I take back what I said.
Plug various trades into the FBG's Pick Value Calculator for an idea of value. On the home page under "Tools"'Mario Kart said:
I am aware of that but those figures give "implied values" when the actual value may be much different.
You could look at average auction values, if you can find dynasty AAV somewhere. The 1st pick is worth the dollar amount of the player with the highest AAV, 10th overall pick is worth the 10th highest AAV, and so on. Add up the dollar value of each side of the trade and compare.
Probably not many auctions going on right now. But, let me throw these two scenarios out there?The following two trades would be trading the 1.06 pick to the 1.07 owner and the 1.07 pick to the 1.06 owner. The following two teams would occur using MFL.Owner having 1.06 & 1.07 would have after 7 rounds:- Ray Rice- Maurice Jones-Drew- Greg Jennings- Steven Jackson(might change up the 4th pick if not concerned with RB help)Owner trading away the 1.06 pick:- Ryan Matthews- Ahmad Bradshaw- Antonio Gates- Jeremy Maclin- Sidney Rice - Dallas Clark (if not wanting two TE's this pick could be... Tony Romo)- Pierre Garcon- Matt Schaub (if not wanting two QB's this pick could be... Marshawn Lynch)- Mario Manningham- James Starks (I don't see why Starks is so high here, Grant is at 7.01)Starting lineup of team 2:Matt SchaubRyan MatthewsAhmad Bradshaw - James StarksJermey MaclinSidney RicePierre Garcon- Mario ManninghamAntonio Gates- Dallas ClarkObviously there could be much variation but this is using MFL's ADP right now. Which team?
Pretty close, give a slight edge to Mcfadden, but i wouldnt fault anyone for going with Nicks.
I have them very close as well. They have a lot of similarities:1. Pretty close in age. Of the top guys at their positions, they are pretty much the youngest.2. Both are a bit injury prone, missing games in each of their seasons.3. Both had huge seasons last year, averaging around 19 PPG in ppr formats. That's why to me it makes for such an interesting discussion. The decision between the 2 comes down almost entirely to how one comes down on the WR v. RB argument that is being debated in this thread. Thus, I'd be curious not only to hear people's opinions, but the reasoning behind their opinion.
League specifics would be the biggest factor for me. I play in non-ppr, 12 team, and you can start 3 RB's, so thats why i would prefer Mcfadden......Although its still close.
Interesting conversation. I have seen this concept practiced quite a bit. I think if you are trading down, you have to take chances on rookies and young players in general for it to work out. If you are taking guys like Bradshaw and Steve Smith (NYG) with those extra picks, you are doing yourself a disservice. I have seen this idea work out once. The other times, the teams are young but struggling and we'll see. The owner took a lot of young guys and hit. He hit on Mike Wallace, Jeremy Maclin and a few others. Now his team looks pretty loaded. The teams that win it all, usually has top players; not a lineup full of good ones. If a team can start out with 5 top level starters, you are going to be hard pressed making up the difference in depth. For instance: 1. Adrian Peterson, 2. Miles Austin, 3. Jeremy Maclin, 4. Tom Brady, 5. Jason Witten...One would have a hard time beating that roster, trying to make up the difference in points by having better flex options. Not only that, but teams get starters late in the draft, regularly. If the team that stood still and has 5 top level starters, gets lucky with an Austin Collie, Brandon Lloyd, LeGarrett Blount or even a temporary impact player like Jacob Tamme, that can match your flex options...you're toast. I think the practice concedes year one. But if you can use your extra picks on A.J. Green, C.J. Spiller, Beanie Wells, and Aaron Hernandez and two of the 4 hit big, it can work out in a couple years.
I'll say this: Nicks/Best looked a lot better than McFadden/Maclin during the season, as far as FF value goes. But the draft dinged Best's value. Going Nicks/Austin early and getting Wells/P. Thomas/BJGE late looked great...before the draft. Not to beat a dead horse, but that is why I would take McFadden in most formats. How many WRs had their value damaged the way these RBs did (and I don't see it changing):BestWellsP. ThomasBJGED. WoodheadLeShoureWilliamsFelix JonesVereen (during the draft)And I am sure I am missing some.Teams that have RBBC proof RBs, or special backs that can produce RB1 numbers while in a RBBC, will have an advantage that no other position can offer.
Your team will be average to good, but has very little shot at winning it all, until you find AT LEAST one top 5-7 RB. Unless you hit on the next Arian Foster, I don't like this. Change Calvin for McCoy, Rice, or McFadden and your team is much better. Then, there is no reason to go QB back-to-back. Swap Bradford with Witten, Davis, or your favorite TE at the spot, and you are sitting pretty.Q-RomoR-RiceR-BlountW-JenningsW-AustinT-WittenF-BoldinF- ?Not only is your roster much better, you have no holes. You can afford to take BPA. You can’t do that now. You have to start taking fliers on RBs that most likely won’t even start for their teams. Meanwhile, there are starting caliber players at other positions being plucked by your league mates with more balanced rosters. If you could have that roster and add a Brandon Lloyd, Eli Manning, and a couple upside players later on…you’re stacked. On top of that, we don’t even know what Blount is. You could have ZERO RBs starting for their own NFL teams by the end of the year. I don’t care how great you are at WR and QB. If you can’t put up 10 points a game at the two RB spots, you are going to lose a lot of games.
A lot of the guys you listed are non-elite, situation-dependent, or failed prospect guys. Blah blah blah Jerome Simpson or Mohammed Massaquoi blah blah.First, you can't really trust DMac is any more elite than Best. Best may have superficially lost value but that's only because we don't know if Leshoure will be used any differently than Michael Bush is in OAK. Second, you can't really trust DMac to be elite long term. Marion Barber was "a special back that can produce RB1 numbers while in a RBBC" 2 or 3 years ago. At some point, Ronnie Brown, Caddy, Joseph Addai (and I'm just listing guys I took in rd 1 of dynasty startups) were all can't miss long term RB1s.
I know they are not elite and that is my point. That is why the gap between an elite RB and the field is greater that the gap between an eltie WR and the field. "How many WRs had their value damaged the way these RBs did (and I don't see it changing)?"'thriftyrocker said:
McCluster? Harry Douglas?Let me rephrase my question:How many WRs with (even) relevant (starting/flex) ADP's had their value hurt the way those RBs did? And Marion Barber was never ADP or Chris Johnson. Poor comparision. And I won't get into the VORP argument again. If you think all RBs have the same chance of being elite or lasting 3-4 years, then you are right to suggest there is zero value over replacement. Otherwise, I have addressed your comment a few times already in this thread.
Well done. But I think your strategy is simply to hit home runs. Hitting on Bradford, Nicks, Bryant, Graham and Williams will make any strategy look brilliant.
Well I am admittedly higher on young studs than most owners. I have Dez in my dynasty top 5 WR's already. If I redid it this year, you would see me likely take Green, Jones, Little, etc. The basic strategy is just taking a lot of young guys with upside (at positions cheaper than RB) and taking enough of them that you can afford some misses. I whiffed on Brent Celek, MSW and others. The basic idea behind this strategy to me is that after year 1 I would be adding a likely stud to my team with the 1.1 pick. A pick, that based purely on talent, I have no business having. Just have to rearrange that talent to fit a better lineup when you are ready to try and compete.
McCluster was a 1st round pick in several/many rookie drafts last year. If you think Danny Woodhead's retention of value is more relevant, then I'm not sure we're really having a discussion here rather than you just dismissing anyone who disagrees with you.I'd question how much value those RBs really lost. Best still has value. Very high value given his production last year. BJGE lost value because we knew he was mediocre, he just had a great situation. Guys like Wells, Leshoure, Vereen will have high value if the door opens, and their current value isn't hurt too much because they still have that upside.
He was at least McCoy. Who you took ahead of ADP and Chris Johnson in a startup in 2011. Barber was an unquestioned top 6-8 pick in startups.
Rookie picks are separate from the vet draft. The team listed, while average to above average, could very well be a contender. In fact, it is not a bad team overall. Would two players make up the difference in having a "complete" team with "above average" and not "top notch" talent? That is the question.'Concept Coop said:
I am fine with McCoy as a top 15 player, just wouldn't take him over top 5 WRs due to risk inherent in RB and how confident I am on the talent level. As I said, there are reasons to not trust all of the top 10 RBs from Peterson on down, and there is a higher risk of injury inherent to the position. Don't imply I am against McCoy or McFadden or any of these RBs.The only RBs you listed who undoubtedly qualified as top 35 were Wells and Best. Pierre and BJGE were borderline top 35 but were both pretty clearly treated as backups by their organizations even before their replacements were drafted. Pierre was signed to backup money. BJGE is BJGE. Pierre and BJGE are no more or less relevant than Simpson, McCluster and Massaquoi if the league is not RB-heavy.As of now, Best is being treated by Detroit as equivalent to DMC and Wells by Arizona as equivalent to DeAngelo Williams. As I've said, it affects the true value of these players 0%. Best wasn't a closer or bellcow before they drafted Leshoure. Wells was tending towards bust before they drafted Ryan Williams. The teams verifying what we (already should) know shouldn't change the argument. Best will still be elite if he looks healthy. Wells can still be elite if he shows up and gives a ****.Lamenting the drop in value in Pierre and BJGE is misguided and no different than harping on Dexter McCluster, Jerome Simpson, etc. I don't disagree with your assertion that Peterson is a once in a generation RB and should be valued over elite WR because he will produce at a more valuable position for more elite years. But it gets cloudier when you pull guys like McCoy and McFadden into the conversation because their claim on eliteness is not a given. And Peterson is already old enough that the cliff is in view, neutering the argument as it applies to him at this point in time. Peterson at his highpoint in value (when he set single game records vs. SD) was worth more than Calvin at his highpoint (today?).
Finished draft roster (changes in bold):QB Tony Romo
