Draft Trends for Start 2QB/Super Flex Leagues (1 Viewer)

[Wilbur Wood]

2 of my 5 leagues are Super Flex leagues which allow, but do not mandate, the use of 2 QBs in the starting lineup.

The format is as follows:

Lineup: 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR. 1 TE, 1 Def. 1 K, 1 Super Flex (can be any position), 12 teams, 4 pts per TD pass. high perf. scoring but no PPR for RB (only WR/TE)

Personally, I enjoy the Super Flex format much better than the more conventional format in my other 3 leagues as I find that it lends itself to much more strategy. As an aside, with robust defensive scoring system whereby top defenses can garner as many pts in week as a top RB/WR/QB, so it is also a legitimate strategy to roster 3 or 4 good defenses and rotate them based upon matchups (defensive team matchups have a much higher "hit rate" that individual offensive player matchups). I also think that the SuperFlex format allows for the skilled fantasy player to have a bigger advantage as the fantasy magazines and websites do not offer much guidance at all on the relative player values under this type of setup and there a more "Imperfect Market" with respect to valuation. Anyway, my intent is not to start a thread on the merits of the SuperFlex setup but rather create a thread for guys who use the system to talk about draft trends, ADP data (is there anything worthwhile) and strategies.

Anyway, I'll get the ball rolling with some draft date from the past 3 years in my 2 SuperFlex leagues:

League 1

2006 - Manning goes 1.04 and then unexplainably no QBs until 3.08 and 3.09, 2 more in the 4th round, 2 in the 5th and then the floodgates open -- 5 in the 6th and 6 in the 7th round. No QBs in rds 8 or 9 as by the end of round 7 there had 18 QBs taken off the board.

2005 - Manning goes 1.06, 2 QBs in rd 2 (2.02 Culpepper, 2.10 McNabb), 1 in rd 3, 2 in rd 4, 3 in rd 5, 4 in rd 6, 2 in rd 7, 3 in rd 8, so by the end round 8 there were 18 QBs taken.

2004 - 2 in Round 1 (Manning at 1.11, Culpepper at 1.12), 2 in rd 2, 1 in rd 3, 1 in rd 4, 2 in rd 5, 2 in rd 6, 3 in rd 7, 1 in rd 8, by the end of round 8 there were 14 QBs gone.

League 2

2006 - A keeper league (Keep 3), 6 of 36 kept players were QBs. rd 2 - 2 QB, rd 3 1 QB, rd 4 2 QB, rd 5 1 QB, rd 6 4 QB, so by the end of round 6 there were 16 QBs off the board.

Have not yet had the 2007 drafts in these leagues.

 

[MrJimiT]

You may decide our leagues are too different for comparison, but here goes 2006 draft anyways:

1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 PK, 1 Def & 1 Super Flex - 6 point TD's, 1 point for 30 passing, 10-team league, etc.

After 80 selections...19 QB's, 32 RB's, 27 WR's, 2 Def's. Manning has been selected in each of the past 3 years in the first round.

 

[bighandsray]

I run a similar hi performance super flex redraft league where we mostly start 2 qb's. Also we flex rb and wr receiver either 2/3 or 3/2. Starters usually look like 2qb 3rb 2wr 1K 1Def(Te count as wr). on Qb bye weeks a team might start 2 def. 10 teams and the league has been running for 10 years with pretty much the same core. Our drafts look similar to yours. Last 3 years Manning has gone between pick 5 and pick 12. McNabb or Cpep were 2nd rounders then a big drop until round 5. We give equal points for receptions so wr's are picked mid to late 2nd.

Over the last 3 years more guys have been enlightened by VBD and see the value in runningbacks moreso than feeling like they need balanced team. But based on the way our drafts usually go I do not think they accuratley account for our scoring system. Guys take too many rb's and wr's early. This trend is even more pronounced with the guys who don't use VBD and just go off magazines and other media; where the philosophy is wait on the qb's until mid to late rounds. This is a big problem for teams unless their qb's have career years or they have LT. Last year I fell into this strategy during the draft as I was pick8 of 10 and there seemed to be so little depth at the position last year and so much value in the rb's when my turn came around. My roster was 1Edge, 2Westbrook, 4Portis, 5FTaylor, 3RWayne, 7ReggieBrown, 6Plummer, 10Simms, 8Cpepper. Obviously bad luck at the QB spot but it killed me for the year.

This year I see lots of depth and equality in rb value and wr value, thus I might be picking 2rb's and 2 qb's with my first 4 picks. Usually I like 2rb's, 1Qb and 1wr after 4 rounds. Based on the scoring in my league I just see myself waiting on wr's this year and applying the qb theory to them... wait until middle rounds. I am sure it will suck when my wr's are inconsistent and underperforming but doesn't that some up all wr's anyway?

I also have noticed that top def are under valued in my league. Most years the top scoring team has either the Bears or the Ravens. So if the oppurtunity presents itself I may be picking a def b4 a wr. This would be unheard of. Of course I will be running a VBd soon to see if this is plausible but I would much rather have a def that aves over 20pts per week than 1 of 10 wrs that will get me 12.

I hope this what your looking for.

I also hope no one in my league is looking at this.

 

[Wilbur Wood]

I run a similar hi performance super flex redraft league where we mostly start 2 qb's. Also we flex rb and wr receiver either 2/3 or 3/2. Starters usually look like 2qb 3rb 2wr 1K 1Def(Te count as wr). on Qb bye weeks a team might start 2 def. 10 teams and the league has been running for 10 years with pretty much the same core. Our drafts look similar to yours. Last 3 years Manning has gone between pick 5 and pick 12. McNabb or Cpep were 2nd rounders then a big drop until round 5. We give equal points for receptions so wr's are picked mid to late 2nd. Over the last 3 years more guys have been enlightened by VBD and see the value in runningbacks moreso than feeling like they need balanced team. But based on the way our drafts usually go I do not think they accuratley account for our scoring system. Guys take too many rb's and wr's early. This trend is even more pronounced with the guys who don't use VBD and just go off magazines and other media; where the philosophy is wait on the qb's until mid to late rounds. This is a big problem for teams unless their qb's have career years or they have LT. Last year I fell into this strategy during the draft as I was pick8 of 10 and there seemed to be so little depth at the position last year and so much value in the rb's when my turn came around. My roster was 1Edge, 2Westbrook, 4Portis, 5FTaylor, 3RWayne, 7ReggieBrown, 6Plummer, 10Simms, 8Cpepper. Obviously bad luck at the QB spot but it killed me for the year. This year I see lots of depth and equality in rb value and wr value, thus I might be picking 2rb's and 2 qb's with my first 4 picks. Usually I like 2rb's, 1Qb and 1wr after 4 rounds. Based on the scoring in my league I just see myself waiting on wr's this year and applying the qb theory to them... wait until middle rounds. I am sure it will suck when my wr's are inconsistent and underperforming but doesn't that some up all wr's anyway?I also have noticed that top def are under valued in my league. Most years the top scoring team has either the Bears or the Ravens. So if the oppurtunity presents itself I may be picking a def b4 a wr. This would be unheard of. Of course I will be running a VBd soon to see if this is plausible but I would much rather have a def that aves over 20pts per week than 1 of 10 wrs that will get me 12. I hope this what your looking for.I also hope no one in my league is looking at this.

Good stuff. Yes in my non-keeper league, QBs are still being undervalued. and I will be taking a QB within the 1st 4 rounds this year as well.

 

[Chaka]

I posted this in the other thread:

I must make this post twice a year. I have been in a 12 team, start 2QB league for 12 years now, and I have been keeping statistics on draft trends for the past five seasons. Here is how our draft typically breaks down. (Note we are required to roster 3 QBs minimum with a max of 4)Round 1: 3 QBs - in 2002 my league went insane and 7 QBs were taken in the first, since then the average is 3Round 2: 4 more QBs usually come off the boardRound 3: 5 QBs are usually draftedRound 4: 6 QBs are draftedRound 5 & 6: 5 QBs each round are drafted on average.The last NFL starting QB comes off the board by the end of the 8th or 9th round, at the latest.I love having data on my league drafting trends, it makes predicting position runs much easier.A note on strategy in these type of leagues: It is not a bad idea to draft your #3 QB a little earlier than your league mates. Having a legitimate 3rd QB (Jason Campbell, JP Losman or Steve McNair etc.) with the potential to play like a #2 QB will lead to many trade opportunities throughout the season. QBs gain value during the season due to attrition and injury at the position. So instead of drafting a questionable #3 RB in round 6 (Julius Jones, Brandon Jackson etc) I will often take the QB because it can lead to a trade for a legitimate #2 RB later in the season. Jason Campbell for Ahman Green doesn't seem like a good trade now but by week 6 when the guy with Ahman is facing the prospect of starting Cleo Lemon, DJ Shockley or Brodie Coyle for a few weeks Jason Campbell sounds much more palatable.