Draft trends you're noticing this year (2 Viewers)

[EWV1]

all 3 Bears' WRs taken before 1 Bill's WR taken.

What's crazy is that everyone is in on the Bears, Texans and Packers offenses, but Bears/Texans WRs are all going early and none of the Packers are. I get why, but I kind of feel like we'll look back at the end of the year and realize we were wrong in at least one of those situations. (And I say that as someone who has drafted Moore/Nico early, Dell in the mid rounds and Wicks late, and would gladly draft Diggs, Reed, Allen and Odunze at the right price)

I agree, though I have not wanted to draft Diggs, Reed or Allen as I prefer others in their ADP range. So I am in on 2 guys from every team: Collins + Dell (though passing on Dell sometimes), Watson (reaching a little) + Wicks, and DJ Moore (not reaching but if he falls a bit) + Odunze.

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

all 3 Bears' WRs taken before 1 Bill's WR taken.

What's crazy is that everyone is in on the Bears, Texans and Packers offenses, but Bears/Texans WRs are all going early and none of the Packers are. I get why, but I kind of feel like we'll look back at the end of the year and realize we were wrong in at least one of those situations. (And I say that as someone who has drafted Moore/Nico early, Dell in the mid rounds and Wicks late, and would gladly draft Diggs, Reed, Allen and Odunze at the right price)

I agree, though I have not wanted to draft Diggs, Reed or Allen as I prefer others in their ADP range. So I am in on 2 guys from every team: Collins + Dell (though passing on Dell sometimes), Watson (reaching a little) + Wicks, and DJ Moore (not reaching but if he falls a bit) + Odunze.

Thinking about this some more, if we're going to be fading any of those teams' WRs, it should be the Bears. There is literally zero history of a rookie QB supporting three relevant fantasy options -- even two is exceedingly rare. And yet, I like each of them individually (though like you, I'm probably most bearish on Allen at his ADP, no pun intended).

IMO the best strategy in a situation like that is to diversify. I remember three years ago I was really high on Aiyuk, but in one league where I missed out on him I got Deebo instead, and he proceeded to have his breakout season while Aiyuk struggled and found himself at least temporarily in Shanny's doghouse. From that point on, I approached ambiguous situations by buying multiple lottery tickets across different leagues and hope a few of them hit. But the key is not to reach too far beyond ADP

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

It's funny how you consider Kyler a reach at 6.03 and I consider Kincaid a reach at 5.01. Not saying either of us is right or wrong. (Eh, who am I kidding? We're probably both wrong.)

Oh I considered Kincaid a slight reach at 5.01 as well, but picking at 1 means reaching or missing.

In my case, 5 TEs went in round 3 (2) and 4 (3). 24 picks to my next pick, 4 TE left I wanted. The math picked him for me.

Every year I’ve tried to land the last of the truly usable tier TE, and every year I spend time chasing FAs because it so rarely works. This year I was bound and determined to come out of every draft with one of my top 5 TEs.

This was on my “lessons learned” postmortem from last season.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

all 3 Bears' WRs taken before 1 Bill's WR taken.

What's crazy is that everyone is in on the Bears, Texans and Packers offenses, but Bears/Texans WRs are all going early and none of the Packers are. I get why, but I kind of feel like we'll look back at the end of the year and realize we were wrong in at least one of those situations. (And I say that as someone who has drafted Moore/Nico early, Dell in the mid rounds and Wicks late, and would gladly draft Diggs, Reed, Allen and Odunze at the right price)

Thing is, Packers RB is crystal clear. Jacobs is going 2nd/early 3rd despite having a down year in ‘23. And Love is going top 10
QB regardless of format.

But folks aren’t quite sure how the snap count will play out for Reed, Watson, Doubs, Wicks, Melton - will they run 2 WR sets? Who’s the odd man out? It’s a mess to decipher. I took Reed + Doubs in the FBG Bowl league, and Love.

Anyway, IMO the lack of clarity causes all of their draft stock to drop a little. Some folks are gonna get a bargain, and others are gonna have to hope they do more with fewer targets (which is entirely possible)

 

[Instinctive]

all 3 Bears' WRs taken before 1 Bill's WR taken.

What's crazy is that everyone is in on the Bears, Texans and Packers offenses, but Bears/Texans WRs are all going early and none of the Packers are. I get why, but I kind of feel like we'll look back at the end of the year and realize we were wrong in at least one of those situations. (And I say that as someone who has drafted Moore/Nico early, Dell in the mid rounds and Wicks late, and would gladly draft Diggs, Reed, Allen and Odunze at the right price)

I agree, though I have not wanted to draft Diggs, Reed or Allen as I prefer others in their ADP range. So I am in on 2 guys from every team: Collins + Dell (though passing on Dell sometimes), Watson (reaching a little) + Wicks, and DJ Moore (not reaching but if he falls a bit) + Odunze.

I have been absolutely hammering Watson at ADP. Totally agree it would be super weird for Love to put up 4000+ and 30+ and not support a fantasy relevant low-end WR1 or more. Basically all metrics I've seen/heard pointed to Watson as the guy (YPRR, target share, first-read target share, target rate, etc) but I end up with a decent amount of Wicks too.

I haven't got much Coleman because I tend to go for Thomas or Watson over him, but I am getting a lot of Shakir later. I'd love to have a few Colemans but hard to pass up the others at that ADP.

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

But folks aren’t quite sure how the snap count will play out for Reed, Watson, Doubs, Wicks, Melton - will they run 2 WR sets? Who’s the odd man out? It’s a mess to decipher. I took Reed + Doubs in the FBG Bowl league, and Love.

OK, but how does that not apply to Hou/Chi WRs?

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

OK, but how does that not apply to Hou/Chi WRs?

IMO, I have the Bears situation sorted:
• Allen showed up overweight, Caleb has an instant connection with Rome, and DJM is being drafted for last seasons stats.

So the difference is that I tried to avoid the Bears and I tried to target Packers.

 

[Chaka]

all 3 Bears' WRs taken before 1 Bill's WR taken.

What's crazy is that everyone is in on the Bears, Texans and Packers offenses, but Bears/Texans WRs are all going early and none of the Packers are. I get why, but I kind of feel like we'll look back at the end of the year and realize we were wrong in at least one of those situations. (And I say that as someone who has drafted Moore/Nico early, Dell in the mid rounds and Wicks late, and would gladly draft Diggs, Reed, Allen and Odunze at the right price)

That tracks. This is how they went off the board in the FBG Home League

3.09 DJ Moore WR18
3.12 Nico Collins WR20
5.11 Stefon Diggs WR28
6.1 Tank Dell WR31
7.12 Jayden Reed WR38
9.02 Keenan Allen WR41
9.03 Rome Odunze WR42
10.1 Christian Watson WR49
11.11 Romeo Doubs WR53
13.08 Dontayvion Wicks WR59

I think it is a bit easier to suss out the pecking orders in Houston & Chicago than it is in Green Bay. I have heard reports all off-season that Doubs & Reed were the best receivers on the team but everyone also remembers what Watson did as a rookie and even Wicks has a bunch of supporters so, no one really knows how it's going to shake out.

 

[Chaka]

all 3 Bears' WRs taken before 1 Bill's WR taken.

What's crazy is that everyone is in on the Bears, Texans and Packers offenses, but Bears/Texans WRs are all going early and none of the Packers are. I get why, but I kind of feel like we'll look back at the end of the year and realize we were wrong in at least one of those situations. (And I say that as someone who has drafted Moore/Nico early, Dell in the mid rounds and Wicks late, and would gladly draft Diggs, Reed, Allen and Odunze at the right price)

I agree, though I have not wanted to draft Diggs, Reed or Allen as I prefer others in their ADP range. So I am in on 2 guys from every team: Collins + Dell (though passing on Dell sometimes), Watson (reaching a little) + Wicks, and DJ Moore (not reaching but if he falls a bit) + Odunze.

Thinking about this some more, if we're going to be fading any of those teams' WRs, it should be the Bears. There is literally zero history of a rookie QB supporting three relevant fantasy options -- even two is exceedingly rare. And yet, I like each of them individually (though like you, I'm probably most bearish on Allen at his ADP, no pun intended).

IMO the best strategy in a situation like that is to diversify. I remember three years ago I was really high on Aiyuk, but in one league where I missed out on him I got Deebo instead, and he proceeded to have his breakout season while Aiyuk struggled and found himself at least temporarily in Shanny's doghouse. From that point on, I approached ambiguous situations by buying multiple lottery tickets across different leagues and hope a few of them hit. But the key is not to reach too far beyond ADP

Well Collins and Dell finished as the #16 & #18 WRs in PPG last year in my PPR league and Schultz was TE12.

It's not awesome but they were all very useful at times.

But Stroud is very likely an anomaly and we can't expect the same from Caleb.

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

OK, but how does that not apply to Hou/Chi WRs?

IMO, I have the Bears situation sorted:
• Allen showed up overweight, Caleb has an instant connection with Rome, and DJM is being drafted for last seasons stats.

So the difference is that I tried to avoid the Bears and I tried to target Packers.

And after all this discussion, I went out in my last draft tonight and picked the following WRs (14-team 0.5 PPR):

5.08 (64) -- Dell
6.07 (77) -- Keenan
8.07 (105) -- Watson

In all three cases, it ultimately just came down to feeling like there was value at those ADPs, though I could see people thinking they were all reaches. Eagerly awaiting all three blowing up in my face

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

In all three cases, it ultimately just came down to feeling like there was value at those ADPs, though I could see people thinking they were all reaches. Eagerly awaiting all three blowing up in my face

I’ve totally done that. “Well this is too good a value to not take here.”

I’m pretty sure I’m bombed those drafts. lol

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

The trend I'm most seeing is my homerism is at an all-time high (although this year for good reason, Washington's offense looks to be vastly improved!!) Check out my shares of Washington players amongst my 22 leagues so far (with 2 more drafts coming)

Jayden Daniels - 8 leagues
Brian Robinson - 14 leagues
Terry McLaurin - 16 leagues
Jahan Dotson (all pre trade) - 15 leagues
Dyami Brown - 8 leagues
Luke McCaffrey - 7 leagues
Olamide Zaccheaus - 5 leagues
Ben Sinnott - 8 leagues
Zac Ertz - 4 leagues
Cole Turner - 5 leagues (likely drops)

I know this, on weeks Washington scores a lot of points, I won't be losing many games

So do you follow the matchups at all, or just like, watch football all day then check to see the carnage later?

I have more leagues this year than I’m comfortable with. Redraft home league, 3x NFFC ROC, FBG Bowl, and 3 Dynasty (all 3 win-now windows) and the conflicts are going to make me crazy.

 

[taylormeetstheismann]

There were not 1 not 2 not 3 not 4 not 5 but 6 Tight Ends drafted in the 1st and 2nd round 2023

That sounds nuts to me. I can’t see that as winning play.