Draft trends you're noticing this year (1 Viewer)

[ignatiusjreilly]

Dalton Kincaid and I'll turn the over to you @ignatiusjreilly
Why would you be OUT?

-There were not 1 not 2 not 3 not 4 not 5 but 6 Tight Ends drafted in the 1st and 2nd round 2023, it was a strong TE class and more than La Porta is going to be a frontline starter
IMHO of course...

I would love to know why you feel you are OUT!

Biggest reason, aside from the fact that I had him last year and didn't love the ride, is the presence of Knox. When they were both healthy, neither really produced, even down the stretch when Diggs was invisible. And it's not like a Gronk/Hernandez thing where they play totally different positions.

Maybe "out" is overstating it. I think he's fine overall but his upside is limited and I don't like him -- and can't draft him -- in the elite tier of TEs

Is it possible in Year 2 that Kincaid playing Tight End, a position that requires a year or two to get the ropes in the NFL, La Porta is/was not the norm, but maybe Kincaid improves
I have confidence that Kincaid will look even better this season and if he can't push ahead of Knox then maybe he isn't as good as I and many other in the FF community seem to think
He is being drafted TE 3-5 right now, that could be a smidge high.
Ferguson interest you from Dallas? TE9 or 10 right now

Yes, I like Ferguson a lot, especially because I think he has a chance to get the second most targets in that offense (which has been shown to be a requirement for Top 6 TE seasons).

Just finished a draft tonight. Kincaid lasted until the end of the 6th, which I think is reasonable. I picked earlier that round, and might have taken him if not for the fact that I couldn't pass up Kyler there. Ended up getting Njoku in the 9th, which I'm happy with (other than the fact that I hate having to root for Deshaun in any capacity)

 

[VikingFrog]

YMMV but here are some observations from my keeper auction draft on Sunday:
Overall:

• QB values were depressed over historical values. Mahomes was a 40% discount over last year. Everyone seemed to get a QB at a bargain rate. Lots of vet QBs available cheap at the end of the draft. There was a surprising amount of Bo Nix love in the room. Goff incredibly undervalued IMO. Not a lot of love for Lamar, who went for CJ prices. A-Rich went for much lower than I thought he'd go (in the Herbert range, when I predicted he'd be in the Lamar range).
• Gibbs went for slightly more than Achane, seemed like there were distinct camps that were immediately out when their names were brought up. Kyren was in the next tier after that and he was a relative bargain IMO, seemed a little disrespected in the room.
• Nacua went for more than Kupp. Not a ton more, but Nacua won by a distinct margin.
• Rice was a bargain due to the potential for suspension
• Aman-Ra was bid up in the Tyreek/CD territory, every team seemed to go outside of their comfort zone to bid on him. Teams that were historically timid with the wallet were bidding without regard to the consequences.
• Chase and Garrett Wilson went for more than JJ, AJB and JJ were essentially the same price.
• Olave and Deebo went for the same price
• Discount on Diggs, he was 50% of last years price
• Heavy money on the TE position this year up top. Even Hockenson got bid up.

Hockenson was free in my auction draft at $1. And with a recent addition of an IR spot in our auction league, I said thank you very much. Unfortunately he’s the best TE on my team.

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

But I don't get why people are so down on Moore

• Rookie QB
• Drafted a very good rookie WR who’s shown immediate chemistry
• Brought in FA target sponge WR
• brought in Everett, so now 2 quality TE receiving targets.

There’s only one football. I’m not saying Moore can’t be a top 10 WR again this year. I’m just saying I’m more comfortable with someone else finding that out at his current ADP.

All good points. I just think he's too talented to be dragged down by any of them. It's a little like Diggs when he first came to Buffalo. Even a year or two in, he wasn't getting drafted as an elite option.

Incidentally, I did a mock today where I started Hall/Etienne/Kupp/Moore. No idea if that's realistic in a live draft, but I would be happy if it went that way. Don't reach for Moore but let him fall to me and be happy with the potential upside

The bills don’t have uncertainty at quarterback, though. The Bears definitely do.
I expect Caleb Williams to be good, but we don’t know it yet. Nor do we know who he’s going to favor in the passing game.
I love Moore, and wish I had more shares of him. But in redraft, I’m going to let somebody else find out.

I can't disagree with you, other than to say that I like the talent and I think it will win out.

In tonight's draft, God help me, I took him at 3.09 (after starting AJB/Gibbs). It appears his Yahoo ADP has increased to the point where I didn't expect him to come back to me at 4.04, although in doing so I missed out on a bunch of RB2s I was targeting (Cook, Mixon, Jacobs).

I know, I know, take it to the "Draft Day Regerts" thread

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

But I don't get why people are so down on Moore

• Rookie QB
• Drafted a very good rookie WR who’s shown immediate chemistry
• Brought in FA target sponge WR
• brought in Everett, so now 2 quality TE receiving targets.

There’s only one football. I’m not saying Moore can’t be a top 10 WR again this year. I’m just saying I’m more comfortable with someone else finding that out at his current ADP.

All good points. I just think he's too talented to be dragged down by any of them. It's a little like Diggs when he first came to Buffalo. Even a year or two in, he wasn't getting drafted as an elite option.

Incidentally, I did a mock today where I started Hall/Etienne/Kupp/Moore. No idea if that's realistic in a live draft, but I would be happy if it went that way. Don't reach for Moore but let him fall to me and be happy with the potential upside

The bills don’t have uncertainty at quarterback, though. The Bears definitely do.
I expect Caleb Williams to be good, but we don’t know it yet. Nor do we know who he’s going to favor in the passing game.
I love Moore, and wish I had more shares of him. But in redraft, I’m going to let somebody else find out.

I can't disagree with you, other than to say that I like the talent and I think it will win out.

In tonight's draft, God help me, I took him at 3.09 (after starting AJB/Gibbs). It appears his Yahoo ADP has increased to the point where I didn't expect him to come back to me at 4.04, although in doing so I missed out on a bunch of RB2s I was targeting (Cook, Mixon, Jacobs).

I know, I know, take it to the "Draft Day Regerts" thread

I don’t mind that build, WR2 is solid - I’d prefer him as my WR3, but we can’t always get what we want. Plus you have Gibbs, so I really don’t mind that build. It’s very solid.

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

But I don't get why people are so down on Moore

• Rookie QB
• Drafted a very good rookie WR who’s shown immediate chemistry
• Brought in FA target sponge WR
• brought in Everett, so now 2 quality TE receiving targets.

There’s only one football. I’m not saying Moore can’t be a top 10 WR again this year. I’m just saying I’m more comfortable with someone else finding that out at his current ADP.

All good points. I just think he's too talented to be dragged down by any of them. It's a little like Diggs when he first came to Buffalo. Even a year or two in, he wasn't getting drafted as an elite option.

Incidentally, I did a mock today where I started Hall/Etienne/Kupp/Moore. No idea if that's realistic in a live draft, but I would be happy if it went that way. Don't reach for Moore but let him fall to me and be happy with the potential upside

The bills don’t have uncertainty at quarterback, though. The Bears definitely do.
I expect Caleb Williams to be good, but we don’t know it yet. Nor do we know who he’s going to favor in the passing game.
I love Moore, and wish I had more shares of him. But in redraft, I’m going to let somebody else find out.

I can't disagree with you, other than to say that I like the talent and I think it will win out.

In tonight's draft, God help me, I took him at 3.09 (after starting AJB/Gibbs). It appears his Yahoo ADP has increased to the point where I didn't expect him to come back to me at 4.04, although in doing so I missed out on a bunch of RB2s I was targeting (Cook, Mixon, Jacobs).

I know, I know, take it to the "Draft Day Regerts" thread

I don’t mind that build, WR2 is solid - I’d prefer him as my WR3, but we can’t always get what we want. Plus you have Gibbs, so I really don’t mind that build. It’s very solid.

Yes, after complaining about the 2nd-round options, I was thrilled that he fell to me. Especially because, with one pick to go, my top-rated options were him and Saquon, and I didn't want to start off with a Philly WR-RB stack. Fortunately, the guy before me took Barkley

 

[TheDirtyWord]

1. Javonte Williams is back ON!
2. Amari Cooper is the most disrespected fantasy player in the NFL.
3. This is the deepest TE class I can remember while at the same time lacking a true alpha in like forever
4. The Rashee Rice discount evaporated overnight
5. Snake draft though has become downright boring. Auction is the fun way to do this.

 

[kyoun1e]

1. Javonte Williams is back ON!
2. Amari Cooper is the most disrespected fantasy player in the NFL.
3. This is the deepest TE class I can remember while at the same time lacking a true alpha in like forever
4. The Rashee Rice discount evaporated overnight
5. Snake draft though has become downright boring. Auction is the fun way to do this.

So true. He drops every mock I do.

To the point I myself don't want to take him.

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

1. Javonte Williams is back ON!
2. Amari Cooper is the most disrespected fantasy player in the NFL.
3. This is the deepest TE class I can remember while at the same time lacking a true alpha in like forever
4. The Rashee Rice discount evaporated overnight
5. Snake draft though has become downright boring. Auction is the fun way to do this.

So true. He drops every mock I do.

To the point I myself don't want to take him.

Only downside is that it forces you to root for Watson

 

[Ministry of Pain]

1. Javonte Williams is back ON!
2. Amari Cooper is the most disrespected fantasy player in the NFL.
3. This is the deepest TE class I can remember while at the same time lacking a true alpha in like forever
4. The Rashee Rice discount evaporated overnight
5. Snake draft though has become downright boring. Auction is the fun way to do this.

I have no problem taking Amari Cooper at his current ADP, not sold on Jeudy even with the extension
Always liked Elijah Moore but gave up at some point last year
Wide Receivers die a slow death in Cleveland, Cooper has been the exception

 

[Ted Lange as your Bartender]

I like my teams a lot better when I load up on wrs early. So through the first seven rounds I want at least four wrs assuming you can start all four.

I'm almost the opposite of this. There has been so many good WR's on the board when it's my turn to draft that I have been loading up on them and realizing I'm shallow at RB.

The one big trend I'm seeing is that there are draftable WR's left in the late rounds (R13-20) but absolutely no RB's even worth rostering. Make sure you're happy with your RB room once Round 12 is over, because you're not getting anything after that, while you can still get good bench WRs

I’ve seen the complete opposite of this so far. Worthwhile WRs are gone by round 12 and there’s decent dart throw RBs available later.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

5. Snake draft though has become downright boring. Auction is the fun way to do this.

I’ve lobbied for this in my home IDP league for years. No takers.

Today we passed a vote to go to 3RR.

Baby steps.

 

[Deamon]

I like my teams a lot better when I load up on wrs early. So through the first seven rounds I want at least four wrs assuming you can start all four.

I'm almost the opposite of this. There has been so many good WR's on the board when it's my turn to draft that I have been loading up on them and realizing I'm shallow at RB.

The one big trend I'm seeing is that there are draftable WR's left in the late rounds (R13-20) but absolutely no RB's even worth rostering. Make sure you're happy with your RB room once Round 12 is over, because you're not getting anything after that, while you can still get good bench WRs

I’ve seen the complete opposite of this so far. Worthwhile WRs are gone by round 12 and there’s decent dart throw RBs available later.

Really? I dunno. Here's ADP of RB/WR past round 12

R. Dowdle
Z. Charbonnet
J. Dobbins
J. Wright
T. Chandler
J. McLaughlin
A. Gibson
T. Algeir
K. Vidal
D. Pierce

K. Shakir
C. Samuel
R. Doubs
T. Lockett
J. Meyers
J. Palmer
J. Jeudy
B. Cooks
R. Shaheed
D. Wicks
M. Williams
D. Mooney

I would MUCH rather be choosing my WR4/5 from that group of WR's than my RB 3/4 from that group of RBs.

 

[Down Under]

CMC went 1.07 in my local draft last night. I had 1.08.

 

[Deamon]

CMC went 1.07 in my local draft last night. I had 1.08.

wrong forum

 

[Ted Lange as your Bartender]

I like my teams a lot better when I load up on wrs early. So through the first seven rounds I want at least four wrs assuming you can start all four.

I'm almost the opposite of this. There has been so many good WR's on the board when it's my turn to draft that I have been loading up on them and realizing I'm shallow at RB.

The one big trend I'm seeing is that there are draftable WR's left in the late rounds (R13-20) but absolutely no RB's even worth rostering. Make sure you're happy with your RB room once Round 12 is over, because you're not getting anything after that, while you can still get good bench WRs

I’ve seen the complete opposite of this so far. Worthwhile WRs are gone by round 12 and there’s decent dart throw RBs available later.

Really? I dunno. Here's ADP of RB/WR past round 12

R. Dowdle
Z. Charbonnet
J. Dobbins
J. Wright
T. Chandler
J. McLaughlin
A. Gibson
T. Algeir
K. Vidal
D. Pierce

K. Shakir
C. Samuel
R. Doubs
T. Lockett
J. Meyers
J. Palmer
J. Jeudy
B. Cooks
R. Shaheed
D. Wicks
M. Williams
D. Mooney

I would MUCH rather be choosing my WR4/5 from that group of WR's than my RB 3/4 from that group of RBs.

First off, agree to disagree. I would much rather hammer WR early and take upside shots on WR 4/5 with guys like Brian Thomas Jr, Hollywood, Sutton, Jameson etc. and then take shots on RBs that have a great chance at production with an injury or a talent winning out situation. I’d be perfectly content with Dobbins, Chandler, Jaleel, Charbonnet as my RB4.

Secondly, most of these “this or that?” questions are largely very league specific since most of the WRs you listed were gone by the end of round 12 anyway in recent drafts I’ve done.

 

[kyoun1e]

1. Javonte Williams is back ON!
2. Amari Cooper is the most disrespected fantasy player in the NFL.
3. This is the deepest TE class I can remember while at the same time lacking a true alpha in like forever
4. The Rashee Rice discount evaporated overnight
5. Snake draft though has become downright boring. Auction is the fun way to do this.

So true. He drops every mock I do.

To the point I myself don't want to take him.

Only downside is that it forces you to root for Watson

Watson is the primary reason Cooper is dropping.

 

[kyoun1e]

I like my teams a lot better when I load up on wrs early. So through the first seven rounds I want at least four wrs assuming you can start all four.

I'm almost the opposite of this. There has been so many good WR's on the board when it's my turn to draft that I have been loading up on them and realizing I'm shallow at RB.

The one big trend I'm seeing is that there are draftable WR's left in the late rounds (R13-20) but absolutely no RB's even worth rostering. Make sure you're happy with your RB room once Round 12 is over, because you're not getting anything after that, while you can still get good bench WRs

I’ve seen the complete opposite of this so far. Worthwhile WRs are gone by round 12 and there’s decent dart throw RBs available later.

Really? I dunno. Here's ADP of RB/WR past round 12

R. Dowdle
Z. Charbonnet
J. Dobbins
J. Wright
T. Chandler
J. McLaughlin
A. Gibson
T. Algeir
K. Vidal
D. Pierce

K. Shakir
C. Samuel
R. Doubs
T. Lockett
J. Meyers
J. Palmer
J. Jeudy
B. Cooks
R. Shaheed
D. Wicks
M. Williams
D. Mooney

I would MUCH rather be choosing my WR4/5 from that group of WR's than my RB 3/4 from that group of RBs.

After the likes of X. Worthy and B. Thomas are gone, I feel like all the WRs left will end up being on the wire and being wacka moles.

I think there is a lot of potential gold round 10 and beyond for RBs for sure with many of them in your list:

* Z. Moss/C. Brown - How powered offense. Somebody or both could emerge.
* R. Mostert - Still undervalued.
* D. Singletary - Getting all the touches albeit in a crappy offense. So be it. He'd be a #3 or 4 RB.
* J. Ford -- Right now the #1 RB in CLE. Sure they may pick somebody up or D. Foreman gets signed back. Right now, ranked in the 100s.
* C. Hubbard -- The starter the first few weeks at minimum.
* R. Dowdle -- Probably the best back in a high powered offense.
* T. Chandler - 1B to A. Jones who could pull a hammy at any moment.

I want a hero RB early, at least 3 WRs in rounds 1-6, my TE (McBride, Andrews, Kincaid) and my QB. Then I"m pounding the living hell out of those RBs and looking for 1 or 2 more flyers, preferably those rookes. Some of those boring RBs above could hold down the fort for you the first four weeks. Win September.

 

[cheese]

There must be a lot of “Get your guys” advice out there because ADP right now is worthless.

To echo what others have said, the ADPs are extremely different by site and it’s changing where guys go in those leagues. Biggest example is Waddle. If you play on ESPN or sleeper his ADP in the 40s might let you get him in the 4th. On underdog for example, his ADP is 19 and he regularly goes mid2nd.

 

[need2know]

The trend I'm most seeing is my homerism is at an all-time high (although this year for good reason, Washington's offense looks to be vastly improved!!) Check out my shares of Washington players amongst my 22 leagues so far (with 2 more drafts coming)

Jayden Daniels - 8 leagues
Brian Robinson - 14 leagues
Terry McLaurin - 16 leagues
Jahan Dotson (all pre trade) - 15 leagues
Dyami Brown - 8 leagues
Luke McCaffrey - 7 leagues
Olamide Zaccheaus - 5 leagues
Ben Sinnott - 8 leagues
Zac Ertz - 4 leagues
Cole Turner - 5 leagues (likely drops)

I know this, on weeks Washington scores a lot of points, I won't be losing many games

you know washington isnt going to be very good right?

 

[Payne]

The zero RB 'experiment' must be officially over. I've seen more 1st/2nd round RBs go this year than I have in a long time.

I have been beating this drum for a month. RB's are coming off way higher in real drafts than ADP or mocks.

Did a draft last night from the 1.7 spot in a competitive 12 team PPR league.
RB's went flying off the board.
1.1 - CMC
1.2 - Bijan
1.6 - Hall
1.7 - Taylor
1.11 - Kyren
2.1 - Pacheco
2.2 - Barkley
2.3 - Gibbs
2.4 - Henry
2.6 - ETN
2.8 - Walker
2.10 - Kamara
2.11 - Cook

That does not seem like a very competitive league.

I'm not even going to reply to this.

 

[wgoldsph]

Win September.

Explain this philosophy like I'm in the fifth grade

 

[Payne]

YMMV but here are some observations from my keeper auction draft on Sunday:
Overall:

• QB values were depressed over historical values. Mahomes was a 40% discount over last year. Everyone seemed to get a QB at a bargain rate. Lots of vet QBs available cheap at the end of the draft. There was a surprising amount of Bo Nix love in the room. Goff incredibly undervalued IMO. Not a lot of love for Lamar, who went for CJ prices. A-Rich went for much lower than I thought he'd go (in the Herbert range, when I predicted he'd be in the Lamar range).
• Gibbs went for slightly more than Achane, seemed like there were distinct camps that were immediately out when their names were brought up. Kyren was in the next tier after that and he was a relative bargain IMO, seemed a little disrespected in the room.
• Nacua went for more than Kupp. Not a ton more, but Nacua won by a distinct margin.
• Rice was a bargain due to the potential for suspension
• Aman-Ra was bid up in the Tyreek/CD territory, every team seemed to go outside of their comfort zone to bid on him. Teams that were historically timid with the wallet were bidding without regard to the consequences.
• Chase and Garrett Wilson went for more than JJ, AJB and JJ were essentially the same price.
• Olave and Deebo went for the same price
• Discount on Diggs, he was 50% of last years price
• Heavy money on the TE position this year up top. Even Hockenson got bid up.

I hate reading this. I have two auctions this weekend and really want ARSB.

I can see the QB trend. I also love seeing TE being priced up as I am keeping mine relatively cheap.

Chase should be more than JJ

 

[ffmail4me]

The trend I'm most seeing is my homerism is at an all-time high (although this year for good reason, Washington's offense looks to be vastly improved!!) Check out my shares of Washington players amongst my 22 leagues so far (with 2 more drafts coming)

Jayden Daniels - 8 leagues
Brian Robinson - 14 leagues
Terry McLaurin - 16 leagues
Jahan Dotson (all pre trade) - 15 leagues
Dyami Brown - 8 leagues
Luke McCaffrey - 7 leagues
Olamide Zaccheaus - 5 leagues
Ben Sinnott - 8 leagues
Zac Ertz - 4 leagues
Cole Turner - 5 leagues (likely drops)

I know this, on weeks Washington scores a lot of points, I won't be losing many games

you know washington isnt going to be very good right?

I'm not the only person that thinks they are going to be a playoff team. Several "experts" in the media are predicting the same thing.

 

[Deamon]

I like my teams a lot better when I load up on wrs early. So through the first seven rounds I want at least four wrs assuming you can start all four.

I'm almost the opposite of this. There has been so many good WR's on the board when it's my turn to draft that I have been loading up on them and realizing I'm shallow at RB.

The one big trend I'm seeing is that there are draftable WR's left in the late rounds (R13-20) but absolutely no RB's even worth rostering. Make sure you're happy with your RB room once Round 12 is over, because you're not getting anything after that, while you can still get good bench WRs

I’ve seen the complete opposite of this so far. Worthwhile WRs are gone by round 12 and there’s decent dart throw RBs available later.

Really? I dunno. Here's ADP of RB/WR past round 12

R. Dowdle
Z. Charbonnet
J. Dobbins
J. Wright
T. Chandler
J. McLaughlin
A. Gibson
T. Algeir
K. Vidal
D. Pierce

K. Shakir
C. Samuel
R. Doubs
T. Lockett
J. Meyers
J. Palmer
J. Jeudy
B. Cooks
R. Shaheed
D. Wicks
M. Williams
D. Mooney

I would MUCH rather be choosing my WR4/5 from that group of WR's than my RB 3/4 from that group of RBs.

After the likes of X. Worthy and B. Thomas are gone, I feel like all the WRs left will end up being on the wire and being wacka moles.

I think there is a lot of potential gold round 10 and beyond for RBs for sure with many of them in your list:

* Z. Moss/C. Brown - How powered offense. Somebody or both could emerge.
* R. Mostert - Still undervalued.
* D. Singletary - Getting all the touches albeit in a crappy offense. So be it. He'd be a #3 or 4 RB.
* J. Ford -- Right now the #1 RB in CLE. Sure they may pick somebody up or D. Foreman gets signed back. Right now, ranked in the 100s.
* C. Hubbard -- The starter the first few weeks at minimum.
* R. Dowdle -- Probably the best back in a high powered offense.
* T. Chandler - 1B to A. Jones who could pull a hammy at any moment.

I want a hero RB early, at least 3 WRs in rounds 1-6, my TE (McBride, Andrews, Kincaid) and my QB. Then I"m pounding the living hell out of those RBs and looking for 1 or 2 more flyers, preferably those rookes. Some of those boring RBs above could hold down the fort for you the first four weeks. Win September.

Moss/Mostert/Singletary/Ford are all round 8 guys. I'm talking about after round 12. Yes I also love that group of RB's you;re talking about, but those are not round 12+ guys for the most part.

 

[Deamon]

I like my teams a lot better when I load up on wrs early. So through the first seven rounds I want at least four wrs assuming you can start all four.

I'm almost the opposite of this. There has been so many good WR's on the board when it's my turn to draft that I have been loading up on them and realizing I'm shallow at RB.

The one big trend I'm seeing is that there are draftable WR's left in the late rounds (R13-20) but absolutely no RB's even worth rostering. Make sure you're happy with your RB room once Round 12 is over, because you're not getting anything after that, while you can still get good bench WRs

I’ve seen the complete opposite of this so far. Worthwhile WRs are gone by round 12 and there’s decent dart throw RBs available later.

Really? I dunno. Here's ADP of RB/WR past round 12

R. Dowdle
Z. Charbonnet
J. Dobbins
J. Wright
T. Chandler
J. McLaughlin
A. Gibson
T. Algeir
K. Vidal
D. Pierce

K. Shakir
C. Samuel
R. Doubs
T. Lockett
J. Meyers
J. Palmer
J. Jeudy
B. Cooks
R. Shaheed
D. Wicks
M. Williams
D. Mooney

I would MUCH rather be choosing my WR4/5 from that group of WR's than my RB 3/4 from that group of RBs.

First off, agree to disagree. I would much rather hammer WR early and take upside shots on WR 4/5 with guys like Brian Thomas Jr, Hollywood, Sutton, Jameson etc. and then take shots on RBs that have a great chance at production with an injury or a talent winning out situation. I’d be perfectly content with Dobbins, Chandler, Jaleel, Charbonnet as my RB4.

Secondly, most of these “this or that?” questions are largely very league specific since most of the WRs you listed were gone by the end of round 12 anyway in recent drafts I’ve done.

The thing is, WR60 is going about where RB45 is going. You're not getting Jameson/Thomas/Sutton usually as your WR5, and Dobbins/Charb/Jaleel I'm not talking about as a RB4, I'm talking about as an RB3.

Again what I'm saying, so it doesnt get twisted, is that those RB's you're listing are likely being RB3's (quite important on your team in terms of flexing, bye weeks, etc), vs those WR's who are your WR5s likely.

If I"m sitting at pick 10 with QB/QB/TE/TE/RB/RB/WR/WR/WR already taken, guys like Mclaughlan and Gibson and Vidal terrify me as a RB3... but Lockett/Jameson/Cooks are pretty good WR4's.

Anyways, it differs by league of course, but what I've noticed, and what is being talked about a lot in fantasy circles, is how RB drops HARD once the double digit rounds start coming through. The WR value is some of the deepest we've ever seen (A guy like Jameson Williams being WR50), vs RBs that get stale pretty fast (Vidal, Herbert, D. Pierce are going as RB50).

If you hit Round 10 with only 2 RB's, you're in a lot of trouble this year. If you hit it with only 2 WR's, there's a ton of starter level WR's to be had in those rounds 10-14

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

1. Javonte Williams is back ON!
2. Amari Cooper is the most disrespected fantasy player in the NFL.
3. This is the deepest TE class I can remember while at the same time lacking a true alpha in like forever
4. The Rashee Rice discount evaporated overnight
5. Snake draft though has become downright boring. Auction is the fun way to do this.

So true. He drops every mock I do.

To the point I myself don't want to take him.

Only downside is that it forces you to root for Watson

Watson is the primary reason Cooper is dropping.

If you're saying that's becaiuse Watson will drag him down, that's probably an accurate description of how the market thinks, but I disagree. I think Cooper is mostly QB-proof, and in any event, I strongly suspect Watson will not be the starting QB all season.

My aversion to Cleveland pass catchers is that I don't want to have to root for Watson to do well. That's not a moral stance or anything, and I don't judge others who feel differently. It's just that the reason I watch football and play fantasy is because they're fun, and I don't find cheering for a guy like that to be fun

 

[msudaisy26]

I like my teams a lot better when I load up on wrs early. So through the first seven rounds I want at least four wrs assuming you can start all four.

I'm almost the opposite of this. There has been so many good WR's on the board when it's my turn to draft that I have been loading up on them and realizing I'm shallow at RB.

The one big trend I'm seeing is that there are draftable WR's left in the late rounds (R13-20) but absolutely no RB's even worth rostering. Make sure you're happy with your RB room once Round 12 is over, because you're not getting anything after that, while you can still get good bench WRs

I’ve seen the complete opposite of this so far. Worthwhile WRs are gone by round 12 and there’s decent dart throw RBs available later.

Really? I dunno. Here's ADP of RB/WR past round 12

R. Dowdle
Z. Charbonnet
J. Dobbins
J. Wright
T. Chandler
J. McLaughlin
A. Gibson
T. Algeir
K. Vidal
D. Pierce

K. Shakir
C. Samuel
R. Doubs
T. Lockett
J. Meyers
J. Palmer
J. Jeudy
B. Cooks
R. Shaheed
D. Wicks
M. Williams
D. Mooney

I would MUCH rather be choosing my WR4/5 from that group of WR's than my RB 3/4 from that group of RBs.

First off, agree to disagree. I would much rather hammer WR early and take upside shots on WR 4/5 with guys like Brian Thomas Jr, Hollywood, Sutton, Jameson etc. and then take shots on RBs that have a great chance at production with an injury or a talent winning out situation. I’d be perfectly content with Dobbins, Chandler, Jaleel, Charbonnet as my RB4.

Secondly, most of these “this or that?” questions are largely very league specific since most of the WRs you listed were gone by the end of round 12 anyway in recent drafts I’ve done.

The thing is, WR60 is going about where RB45 is going. You're not getting Jameson/Thomas/Sutton usually as your WR5, and Dobbins/Charb/Jaleel I'm not talking about as a RB4, I'm talking about as an RB3.

Again what I'm saying, so it doesnt get twisted, is that those RB's you're listing are likely being RB3's (quite important on your team in terms of flexing, bye weeks, etc), vs those WR's who are your WR5s likely.

If I"m sitting at pick 10 with QB/QB/TE/TE/RB/RB/WR/WR/WR already taken, guys like Mclaughlan and Gibson and Vidal terrify me as a RB3... but Lockett/Jameson/Cooks are pretty good WR4's.

Anyways, it differs by league of course, but what I've noticed, and what is being talked about a lot in fantasy circles, is how RB drops HARD once the double digit rounds start coming through. The WR value is some of the deepest we've ever seen (A guy like Jameson Williams being WR50), vs RBs that get stale pretty fast (Vidal, Herbert, D. Pierce are going as RB50).

If you hit Round 10 with only 2 RB's, you're in a lot of trouble this year. If you hit it with only 2 WR's, there's a ton of starter level WR's to be had in those rounds 10-14

If this is a regular redraft why are you taking your qb2 and TE 2 before your rb3?

 

[Deamon]

I like my teams a lot better when I load up on wrs early. So through the first seven rounds I want at least four wrs assuming you can start all four.

I'm almost the opposite of this. There has been so many good WR's on the board when it's my turn to draft that I have been loading up on them and realizing I'm shallow at RB.

The one big trend I'm seeing is that there are draftable WR's left in the late rounds (R13-20) but absolutely no RB's even worth rostering. Make sure you're happy with your RB room once Round 12 is over, because you're not getting anything after that, while you can still get good bench WRs

I’ve seen the complete opposite of this so far. Worthwhile WRs are gone by round 12 and there’s decent dart throw RBs available later.

Really? I dunno. Here's ADP of RB/WR past round 12

R. Dowdle
Z. Charbonnet
J. Dobbins
J. Wright
T. Chandler
J. McLaughlin
A. Gibson
T. Algeir
K. Vidal
D. Pierce

K. Shakir
C. Samuel
R. Doubs
T. Lockett
J. Meyers
J. Palmer
J. Jeudy
B. Cooks
R. Shaheed
D. Wicks
M. Williams
D. Mooney

I would MUCH rather be choosing my WR4/5 from that group of WR's than my RB 3/4 from that group of RBs.

First off, agree to disagree. I would much rather hammer WR early and take upside shots on WR 4/5 with guys like Brian Thomas Jr, Hollywood, Sutton, Jameson etc. and then take shots on RBs that have a great chance at production with an injury or a talent winning out situation. I’d be perfectly content with Dobbins, Chandler, Jaleel, Charbonnet as my RB4.

Secondly, most of these “this or that?” questions are largely very league specific since most of the WRs you listed were gone by the end of round 12 anyway in recent drafts I’ve done.

The thing is, WR60 is going about where RB45 is going. You're not getting Jameson/Thomas/Sutton usually as your WR5, and Dobbins/Charb/Jaleel I'm not talking about as a RB4, I'm talking about as an RB3.

Again what I'm saying, so it doesnt get twisted, is that those RB's you're listing are likely being RB3's (quite important on your team in terms of flexing, bye weeks, etc), vs those WR's who are your WR5s likely.

If I"m sitting at pick 10 with QB/QB/TE/TE/RB/RB/WR/WR/WR already taken, guys like Mclaughlan and Gibson and Vidal terrify me as a RB3... but Lockett/Jameson/Cooks are pretty good WR4's.

Anyways, it differs by league of course, but what I've noticed, and what is being talked about a lot in fantasy circles, is how RB drops HARD once the double digit rounds start coming through. The WR value is some of the deepest we've ever seen (A guy like Jameson Williams being WR50), vs RBs that get stale pretty fast (Vidal, Herbert, D. Pierce are going as RB50).

If you hit Round 10 with only 2 RB's, you're in a lot of trouble this year. If you hit it with only 2 WR's, there's a ton of starter level WR's to be had in those rounds 10-14

If this is a regular redraft why are you taking your qb2 and TE 2 before your rb3?

It happens. Or perhaps you went RB RB QB TE WR WR WR WR WR which is also quite common with how good those WR's are. All I know is I've been in many drafts so far where I'm looking for my RB3 or 4 and there's not a single startable one left and I'm just preying to grab some backup like Chandler/Gibson/Mclaughlin and hoping for an injury, even when there's guys I really like like Palmer, M. Williams, Mooney, and Lockett still on the board.

 

[Down Under]

The zero RB 'experiment' must be officially over. I've seen more 1st/2nd round RBs go this year than I have in a long time.

I have been beating this drum for a month. RB's are coming off way higher in real drafts than ADP or mocks.

Did a draft last night from the 1.7 spot in a competitive 12 team PPR league.
RB's went flying off the board.
1.1 - CMC
1.2 - Bijan
1.6 - Hall
1.7 - Taylor
1.11 - Kyren
2.1 - Pacheco
2.2 - Barkley
2.3 - Gibbs
2.4 - Henry
2.6 - ETN
2.8 - Walker
2.10 - Kamara
2.11 - Cook

That does not seem like a very competitive league.

Enough with the league shaming, c'mon, you've been around for awhile.

 

[Deamon]

The zero RB 'experiment' must be officially over. I've seen more 1st/2nd round RBs go this year than I have in a long time.

I have been beating this drum for a month. RB's are coming off way higher in real drafts than ADP or mocks.

Did a draft last night from the 1.7 spot in a competitive 12 team PPR league.
RB's went flying off the board.
1.1 - CMC
1.2 - Bijan
1.6 - Hall
1.7 - Taylor
1.11 - Kyren
2.1 - Pacheco
2.2 - Barkley
2.3 - Gibbs
2.4 - Henry
2.6 - ETN
2.8 - Walker
2.10 - Kamara
2.11 - Cook

That does not seem like a very competitive league.

Enough with the league shaming, c'mon, you've been around for awhile.

His comment of "I've been beating this drum for a month, RBs are coming off way higher in real drafts than ADP" comes across as a bit arrogant and faulty advice. This draft does not look anywhere near what competitive/higher stakes leagues look like. Haven't seen Walker/Kamara/Cook going round 2 in PPR leagues almost anywhere and I'm 175 drafts deep already (most are bestball, but even in redraft, those three are consistently in Rounds 4 and even 5).

Gonna call someone out if they make an extremely incorrect claim like that, which people might take as the truth as they prep for their drafts.

 

[Down Under]

The zero RB 'experiment' must be officially over. I've seen more 1st/2nd round RBs go this year than I have in a long time.

I have been beating this drum for a month. RB's are coming off way higher in real drafts than ADP or mocks.

Did a draft last night from the 1.7 spot in a competitive 12 team PPR league.
RB's went flying off the board.
1.1 - CMC
1.2 - Bijan
1.6 - Hall
1.7 - Taylor
1.11 - Kyren
2.1 - Pacheco
2.2 - Barkley
2.3 - Gibbs
2.4 - Henry
2.6 - ETN
2.8 - Walker
2.10 - Kamara
2.11 - Cook

That does not seem like a very competitive league.

Enough with the league shaming, c'mon, you've been around for awhile.

His comment of "I've been beating this drum for a month, RBs are coming off way higher in real drafts than ADP" comes across as a bit arrogant and faulty advice. This draft does not look anywhere near what competitive/higher stakes leagues look like. Haven't seen Walker/Kamara/Cook going round 2 in PPR leagues almost anywhere and I'm 175 drafts deep already (most are bestball, but even in redraft, those three are consistently in Rounds 4 and even 5).

Gonna call someone out if they make an extremely incorrect claim like that, which people might take as the truth as they prep for their drafts.

Ok, but to be fair, the question asked was a general one, not specified to "competitive/higher stakes" leagues. So I would expect a very wide range of responses. Use the info at your own risk in your own leagues (as always).

 

[BLOCKED_PUNT]

I've noticed a trend. No one is letting Lamb fall to me @ 8. What a travesty!!!

 

[Deamon]

The zero RB 'experiment' must be officially over. I've seen more 1st/2nd round RBs go this year than I have in a long time.

I have been beating this drum for a month. RB's are coming off way higher in real drafts than ADP or mocks.

Did a draft last night from the 1.7 spot in a competitive 12 team PPR league.
RB's went flying off the board.
1.1 - CMC
1.2 - Bijan
1.6 - Hall
1.7 - Taylor
1.11 - Kyren
2.1 - Pacheco
2.2 - Barkley
2.3 - Gibbs
2.4 - Henry
2.6 - ETN
2.8 - Walker
2.10 - Kamara
2.11 - Cook

That does not seem like a very competitive league.

Enough with the league shaming, c'mon, you've been around for awhile.

His comment of "I've been beating this drum for a month, RBs are coming off way higher in real drafts than ADP" comes across as a bit arrogant and faulty advice. This draft does not look anywhere near what competitive/higher stakes leagues look like. Haven't seen Walker/Kamara/Cook going round 2 in PPR leagues almost anywhere and I'm 175 drafts deep already (most are bestball, but even in redraft, those three are consistently in Rounds 4 and even 5).

Gonna call someone out if they make an extremely incorrect claim like that, which people might take as the truth as they prep for their drafts.

Ok, but to be fair, the question asked was a general one, not specified to "competitive/higher stakes" leagues. So I would expect a very wide range of responses. Use the info at your own risk in your own leagues (as always).

Ya, I just highly disagree that a "trend that's being noticed" is that 13 RBs are going in the first 2 rounds of a PPR draft. Maybe in non-competitive leagues (which is fine, no judgement), but to label it as a competitive league and then post those draft results, is incredibly misleading.

 

[pack66]

Leaving this pretty open: For those who have already drafted (or even those who have done a ton of mocks), what are you seeing this year that's different (or the same) from previous years?

I don't have my first draft until tomorrow night, but I'll start with a few I've noticed in mocks (tomorrow's draft is a 12-team PPR, so that's what I've been mocking. YMMV):

• I've seen this mentioned elsewhere, but I find it almost impossible to find a second-round pick I'm really happy with. If I start with a RB in the first, I can't find a great WR1 in the second. Same if I start with a WR. And if I double up a position in the first two, then I really feel behind the 8-ball on the other position. I'm coming around on some of the 2nd rounders (Henry, GWilson, Olave) but it still feels like their upsides are capped. I sometimes end up going further down the ADP depth chart to grab guys I think have more upside, like Aiyuk or DJ Moore
• On the other hand -- and this is a huge departure from years past -- I'm finding it easier and easier to find an RB in the 4th or 5th that I'm totally comfortable with slotting in as my RB2. Guys like Cook, Kamara, and Conner feel like screaming values
• I'm totally comfortable waiting on QB this year. Murray is the only one I'd probably be willing to stretch a little for, although if he keeps moving up into the 4th I'm not sure I could pull the trigger. In part, that's because there are lots of guys going late who I'd also be fine with. Love and Dak are a tier behind him, and beyond that I'd probably look to team one of the more boring options like Goff, Tua, Herbert or TLaw with riskier higher upside guys like Daniels (although he may be creeping up as well)
• On the other hand, TE feels like there's more of a dropoff this year after the top group. The Big Four (Kelce, SLP, McBride and Andrews) all seem to be going in the first four rounds. Kittle often falls to the 5th, which I'd feel pretty good with. But after that it gets dicey. I'm out on Kincaid. and Pitts. Guys like Engram or Njoku scare me. Ferguson seems like a solid-enough option. And then it gets really bad.

What are you guys seeing?

Why are you out on Kincaid? I picked him up mid-season and he was great.

 

[Cowboysfan8]

The zero RB 'experiment' must be officially over. I've seen more 1st/2nd round RBs go this year than I have in a long time.

I have been beating this drum for a month. RB's are coming off way higher in real drafts than ADP or mocks.

Did a draft last night from the 1.7 spot in a competitive 12 team PPR league.
RB's went flying off the board.
1.1 - CMC
1.2 - Bijan
1.6 - Hall
1.7 - Taylor
1.11 - Kyren
2.1 - Pacheco
2.2 - Barkley
2.3 - Gibbs
2.4 - Henry
2.6 - ETN
2.8 - Walker
2.10 - Kamara
2.11 - Cook

That does not seem like a very competitive league.

Enough with the league shaming, c'mon, you've been around for awhile.

Par for his course

 

[rustycolts]

Here is the first 6 rounds of a recent draft that I think may have had some serious players.

I guess this is considered mid stakes to a high stake league depending on your perspective.

ROUND 6
6.12	Maximus	Love, J
6.11	Last one	Mostert, R
6.10	StraightC	Allen, K
6.9	Iambuttug	Singletary, D
6.8	Nerd 7	Ridley, C
6.7	KH4	Engram, E
6.6	BarryMani	Kirk, C
6.5	Hodginato	Godwin, C
6.4	DH2	Pitts, K
6.3	Bird and	Stroud, C
6.2	Crazy Eye	Dell, T
6.1	kg07	Conner, J
ROUND 5
5.12	kg07	Swift, D
5.11	Crazy Eye	Flowers, Z
5.10	Bird and	Higgins, T
5.9	DH2	McLaurin, T
5.8	Hodginato	Cooper, A
5.7	BarryMani	McBride, T
5.6	KH4	Aiyuk, B
5.5	Nerd 7	Pickens, G
5.4	Iambuttug	Jackson, L
5.3	StraightC	Stevenson, R
5.2	Last one	Williams, J
5.1	Maximus	Andrews, M
ROUND 4
4.12	Maximus	Jones, A
4.11	Last one	Evans, M
4.10	StraightC	Mahomes, P
4.9	Iambuttug	Walker III, K
4.8	Nerd 7	Kincaid, D
4.7	KH4	Rice, R
4.6	BarryMani	Mixon, J
4.5	Hodginato	Moore, D
4.4	DH2	Kamara, A
4.3	Bird and	Diggs, S
4.2	Crazy Eye	Smith, D
4.1	kg07	Waddle, J
ROUND 3
3.12	kg07	Metcalf, D
3.11	Crazy Eye	Hurts, J
3.10	Bird and	Kelce, T
3.9	DH2	Nabers, M
3.8	Hodginato	Allen, J
3.7	BarryMani	Cook, J
3.6	KH4	London, D
3.5	Nerd 7	White, R
3.4	Iambuttug	LaPorta, S
3.3	StraightC	Collins, N
3.2	Last one	Olave, C
3.1	Maximus	Henry, D
ROUND 2
2.12	Maximus	Adams, D
2.11	Last one	Harrison Jr., M
2.10	StraightC	Pacheco, I
2.9	Iambuttug	Pittman Jr., M
2.8	Nerd 7	Williams, K
2.7	KH4	Kupp, C
2.6	BarryMani	Nacua, P
2.5	Hodginato	Samuel, D
2.4	DH2	Etienne, T
2.3	Bird and	Achane, D
2.2	Crazy Eye	Taylor, J
2.1	kg07	Jacobs, J
ROUND 1
1.12	kg07	Wilson, G
1.11	Crazy Eye	Gibbs, J
1.10	Bird and	Brown, A
1.9	DH2	Jefferson, J
1.8	Hodginato	Barkley, S
1.7	BarryMani	Chase, J
1.6	KH4	Robinson, B
1.5	Nerd 7	St. Brown, A
1.4	Iambuttug	Hall, B
1.3	StraightC	Hill, T
1.2	Last one	Lamb, C
1.1	Maximus	McCaffrey, C

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

Leaving this pretty open: For those who have already drafted (or even those who have done a ton of mocks), what are you seeing this year that's different (or the same) from previous years?

I don't have my first draft until tomorrow night, but I'll start with a few I've noticed in mocks (tomorrow's draft is a 12-team PPR, so that's what I've been mocking. YMMV):

• I've seen this mentioned elsewhere, but I find it almost impossible to find a second-round pick I'm really happy with. If I start with a RB in the first, I can't find a great WR1 in the second. Same if I start with a WR. And if I double up a position in the first two, then I really feel behind the 8-ball on the other position. I'm coming around on some of the 2nd rounders (Henry, GWilson, Olave) but it still feels like their upsides are capped. I sometimes end up going further down the ADP depth chart to grab guys I think have more upside, like Aiyuk or DJ Moore
• On the other hand -- and this is a huge departure from years past -- I'm finding it easier and easier to find an RB in the 4th or 5th that I'm totally comfortable with slotting in as my RB2. Guys like Cook, Kamara, and Conner feel like screaming values
• I'm totally comfortable waiting on QB this year. Murray is the only one I'd probably be willing to stretch a little for, although if he keeps moving up into the 4th I'm not sure I could pull the trigger. In part, that's because there are lots of guys going late who I'd also be fine with. Love and Dak are a tier behind him, and beyond that I'd probably look to team one of the more boring options like Goff, Tua, Herbert or TLaw with riskier higher upside guys like Daniels (although he may be creeping up as well)
• On the other hand, TE feels like there's more of a dropoff this year after the top group. The Big Four (Kelce, SLP, McBride and Andrews) all seem to be going in the first four rounds. Kittle often falls to the 5th, which I'd feel pretty good with. But after that it gets dicey. I'm out on Kincaid. and Pitts. Guys like Engram or Njoku scare me. Ferguson seems like a solid-enough option. And then it gets really bad.

What are you guys seeing?

Why are you out on Kincaid? I picked him up mid-season and he was great.

I explained a few posts down from that one. I don’t hate him, but i don’t see him giving elite production to justify his draft capital, especially with Knox still on the team

 

[Payne]

Here is the first 6 rounds of a recent draft that I think may have had some serious players.

I guess this is considered mid stakes to a high stake league depending on your perspective.

ROUND 6
6.12	Maximus	Love, J
6.11	Last one	Mostert, R
6.10	StraightC	Allen, K
6.9	Iambuttug	Singletary, D
6.8	Nerd 7	Ridley, C
6.7	KH4	Engram, E
6.6	BarryMani	Kirk, C
6.5	Hodginato	Godwin, C
6.4	DH2	Pitts, K
6.3	Bird and	Stroud, C
6.2	Crazy Eye	Dell, T
6.1	kg07	Conner, J
ROUND 5
5.12	kg07	Swift, D
5.11	Crazy Eye	Flowers, Z
5.10	Bird and	Higgins, T
5.9	DH2	McLaurin, T
5.8	Hodginato	Cooper, A
5.7	BarryMani	McBride, T
5.6	KH4	Aiyuk, B
5.5	Nerd 7	Pickens, G
5.4	Iambuttug	Jackson, L
5.3	StraightC	Stevenson, R
5.2	Last one	Williams, J
5.1	Maximus	Andrews, M
ROUND 4
4.12	Maximus	Jones, A
4.11	Last one	Evans, M
4.10	StraightC	Mahomes, P
4.9	Iambuttug	Walker III, K
4.8	Nerd 7	Kincaid, D
4.7	KH4	Rice, R
4.6	BarryMani	Mixon, J
4.5	Hodginato	Moore, D
4.4	DH2	Kamara, A
4.3	Bird and	Diggs, S
4.2	Crazy Eye	Smith, D
4.1	kg07	Waddle, J
ROUND 3
3.12	kg07	Metcalf, D
3.11	Crazy Eye	Hurts, J
3.10	Bird and	Kelce, T
3.9	DH2	Nabers, M
3.8	Hodginato	Allen, J
3.7	BarryMani	Cook, J
3.6	KH4	London, D
3.5	Nerd 7	White, R
3.4	Iambuttug	LaPorta, S
3.3	StraightC	Collins, N
3.2	Last one	Olave, C
3.1	Maximus	Henry, D
ROUND 2
2.12	Maximus	Adams, D
2.11	Last one	Harrison Jr., M
2.10	StraightC	Pacheco, I
2.9	Iambuttug	Pittman Jr., M
2.8	Nerd 7	Williams, K
2.7	KH4	Kupp, C
2.6	BarryMani	Nacua, P
2.5	Hodginato	Samuel, D
2.4	DH2	Etienne, T
2.3	Bird and	Achane, D
2.2	Crazy Eye	Taylor, J
2.1	kg07	Jacobs, J
ROUND 1
1.12	kg07	Wilson, G
1.11	Crazy Eye	Gibbs, J
1.10	Bird and	Brown, A
1.9	DH2	Jefferson, J
1.8	Hodginato	Barkley, S
1.7	BarryMani	Chase, J
1.6	KH4	Robinson, B
1.5	Nerd 7	St. Brown, A
1.4	Iambuttug	Hall, B
1.3	StraightC	Hill, T
1.2	Last one	Lamb, C
1.1	Maximus	McCaffrey, C

You must have not read above. 11 RB's in the first two rounds does not qualify as a competitive league. Just ask Deamon.

 

[Payne]

The zero RB 'experiment' must be officially over. I've seen more 1st/2nd round RBs go this year than I have in a long time.

I have been beating this drum for a month. RB's are coming off way higher in real drafts than ADP or mocks.

Did a draft last night from the 1.7 spot in a competitive 12 team PPR league.
RB's went flying off the board.
1.1 - CMC
1.2 - Bijan
1.6 - Hall
1.7 - Taylor
1.11 - Kyren
2.1 - Pacheco
2.2 - Barkley
2.3 - Gibbs
2.4 - Henry
2.6 - ETN
2.8 - Walker
2.10 - Kamara
2.11 - Cook

That does not seem like a very competitive league.

Enough with the league shaming, c'mon, you've been around for awhile.

His comment of "I've been beating this drum for a month, RBs are coming off way higher in real drafts than ADP" comes across as a bit arrogant and faulty advice. This draft does not look anywhere near what competitive/higher stakes leagues look like. Haven't seen Walker/Kamara/Cook going round 2 in PPR leagues almost anywhere and I'm 175 drafts deep already (most are bestball, but even in redraft, those three are consistently in Rounds 4 and even 5).

Gonna call someone out if they make an extremely incorrect claim like that, which people might take as the truth as they prep for their drafts.

Ok, but to be fair, the question asked was a general one, not specified to "competitive/higher stakes" leagues. So I would expect a very wide range of responses. Use the info at your own risk in your own leagues (as always).

Ya, I just highly disagree that a "trend that's being noticed" is that 13 RBs are going in the first 2 rounds of a PPR draft. Maybe in non-competitive leagues (which is fine, no judgement), but to label it as a competitive league and then post those draft results, is incredibly misleading.

That's your opinion. Your opinion doesn't make it fact either.

 

[Deamon]

The zero RB 'experiment' must be officially over. I've seen more 1st/2nd round RBs go this year than I have in a long time.

I have been beating this drum for a month. RB's are coming off way higher in real drafts than ADP or mocks.

Did a draft last night from the 1.7 spot in a competitive 12 team PPR league.
RB's went flying off the board.
1.1 - CMC
1.2 - Bijan
1.6 - Hall
1.7 - Taylor
1.11 - Kyren
2.1 - Pacheco
2.2 - Barkley
2.3 - Gibbs
2.4 - Henry
2.6 - ETN
2.8 - Walker
2.10 - Kamara
2.11 - Cook

That does not seem like a very competitive league.

Enough with the league shaming, c'mon, you've been around for awhile.

His comment of "I've been beating this drum for a month, RBs are coming off way higher in real drafts than ADP" comes across as a bit arrogant and faulty advice. This draft does not look anywhere near what competitive/higher stakes leagues look like. Haven't seen Walker/Kamara/Cook going round 2 in PPR leagues almost anywhere and I'm 175 drafts deep already (most are bestball, but even in redraft, those three are consistently in Rounds 4 and even 5).

Gonna call someone out if they make an extremely incorrect claim like that, which people might take as the truth as they prep for their drafts.

Ok, but to be fair, the question asked was a general one, not specified to "competitive/higher stakes" leagues. So I would expect a very wide range of responses. Use the info at your own risk in your own leagues (as always).

Ya, I just highly disagree that a "trend that's being noticed" is that 13 RBs are going in the first 2 rounds of a PPR draft. Maybe in non-competitive leagues (which is fine, no judgement), but to label it as a competitive league and then post those draft results, is incredibly misleading.

That's your opinion. Your opinion doesn't make it fact either.

Mine is not opinion, it's based on data from thousands of drafts.

Kyren and Pacheco going in the first 13 picks of a ppr draft is likely in 1% of drafts (if that). Same with kamara and cook in round 2.

Your draft is EXTREMELY far from the norm, and if you look at data from high stakes leagues, it makes yours look even more whack. Not trying to league shame, that's fine for a fun low stakes home league where guys don't do much research, but to say "I knew rb would be going way earlier than in mocks" is just not true in competitive leagues. Maybe you have some weird "point per rushing attempt" scoring rule though, which might give at least a bit of reasoning to having 13 rbs go top 2 rounds of ppr. But in regular ppr scoring leagues, this simply isn't happening.

 

[Deamon]

Here is the first 6 rounds of a recent draft that I think may have had some serious players.

I guess this is considered mid stakes to a high stake league depending on your perspective.

ROUND 6
6.12	Maximus	Love, J
6.11	Last one	Mostert, R
6.10	StraightC	Allen, K
6.9	Iambuttug	Singletary, D
6.8	Nerd 7	Ridley, C
6.7	KH4	Engram, E
6.6	BarryMani	Kirk, C
6.5	Hodginato	Godwin, C
6.4	DH2	Pitts, K
6.3	Bird and	Stroud, C
6.2	Crazy Eye	Dell, T
6.1	kg07	Conner, J
ROUND 5
5.12	kg07	Swift, D
5.11	Crazy Eye	Flowers, Z
5.10	Bird and	Higgins, T
5.9	DH2	McLaurin, T
5.8	Hodginato	Cooper, A
5.7	BarryMani	McBride, T
5.6	KH4	Aiyuk, B
5.5	Nerd 7	Pickens, G
5.4	Iambuttug	Jackson, L
5.3	StraightC	Stevenson, R
5.2	Last one	Williams, J
5.1	Maximus	Andrews, M
ROUND 4
4.12	Maximus	Jones, A
4.11	Last one	Evans, M
4.10	StraightC	Mahomes, P
4.9	Iambuttug	Walker III, K
4.8	Nerd 7	Kincaid, D
4.7	KH4	Rice, R
4.6	BarryMani	Mixon, J
4.5	Hodginato	Moore, D
4.4	DH2	Kamara, A
4.3	Bird and	Diggs, S
4.2	Crazy Eye	Smith, D
4.1	kg07	Waddle, J
ROUND 3
3.12	kg07	Metcalf, D
3.11	Crazy Eye	Hurts, J
3.10	Bird and	Kelce, T
3.9	DH2	Nabers, M
3.8	Hodginato	Allen, J
3.7	BarryMani	Cook, J
3.6	KH4	London, D
3.5	Nerd 7	White, R
3.4	Iambuttug	LaPorta, S
3.3	StraightC	Collins, N
3.2	Last one	Olave, C
3.1	Maximus	Henry, D
ROUND 2
2.12	Maximus	Adams, D
2.11	Last one	Harrison Jr., M
2.10	StraightC	Pacheco, I
2.9	Iambuttug	Pittman Jr., M
2.8	Nerd 7	Williams, K
2.7	KH4	Kupp, C
2.6	BarryMani	Nacua, P
2.5	Hodginato	Samuel, D
2.4	DH2	Etienne, T
2.3	Bird and	Achane, D
2.2	Crazy Eye	Taylor, J
2.1	kg07	Jacobs, J
ROUND 1
1.12	kg07	Wilson, G
1.11	Crazy Eye	Gibbs, J
1.10	Bird and	Brown, A
1.9	DH2	Jefferson, J
1.8	Hodginato	Barkley, S
1.7	BarryMani	Chase, J
1.6	KH4	Robinson, B
1.5	Nerd 7	St. Brown, A
1.4	Iambuttug	Hall, B
1.3	StraightC	Hill, T
1.2	Last one	Lamb, C
1.1	Maximus	McCaffrey, C

You must have not read above. 11 RB's in the first two rounds does not qualify as a competitive league. Just ask Deamon.

This is quite a bit more normal than yours was. Here's some data for you from thousands of real drafts.

Kamara is going Round 4.02, Cook at 3.08. They both were 2nd round picks in your PPR league. This is absolutely not the norm.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

CMC went 1.07 in my local draft last night. I had 1.08.

How. Dude scored what, +100 over the next RB?

That’s wild. FF is hard. FF is harder when people can’t do math.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

you know washington isnt going to be very good right?

This is the *new* trends topic, sir.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I explained a few posts down from that one. I don’t hate him, but i don’t see him giving elite production to justify his draft capital, especially with Knox still on the team

I happily took him 5.01 from the 1 position in a 12-team 3RR. I think he’s in for a monster year.

 

[BobbyLayne]

In my LT redraft…curious if anyone else is noticing RB trends in their local home leagues.

Barely discernible but it's not nothing - more robust RB in the first third of the draft. Every round is lower (e.g., total after 1st, total after 2nd, total after....6th) Rounds 1-6.

RBs drafted by round last 4 years - 12 team full PPR

Round​	2024	2023	2022	2021
1.​	4	5	8	8	6.25
2.​	7 (11)	4 (9)	6 (14)	7 (15)	6.00
3.​	3 (14)	6 (15)	2 (16)	3 (18)	3.50
4.​	2 (16)	4 (19)	6 (22)	5 (23)	4.25
5.​	3 (19)	4 (23)	1 (23)	2 (25)	2.50
6.​	5 (24)	3 (26)	4 (27)	3 (28)	3.75
7.​	4	5	3	4	4.00
8.​	4	4	3	2	3.25
9.​	3 (35)	2 (37)	5 (38)	2 (36)	3.00
10.​	3	3	3	5	3.50
11.​	6	3	5	2	4.00
12.​	3 (47)	7 (50)	2 (48)	3 (46)	3.75
13.​	1	2	1	2	1.50
14.​	4	3	5	4	4.00
15.​	2 (54)	4 (59)	3 (57)	3 (55)	3.00
16.​	2	3	0	3	2.00
17.​	1	1	2	1	1.25
18.​	2	3	1	1	1.75
Total​	59	66	60	60	61.25

Maybe it's just normal variance but at the top third of the draft the trend is only going one way - more and more WRs taken earlier than the year(s) before.

 

[Deamon]

In my LT redraft…curious if anyone else is noticing RB trends in their local home leagues.

Barely discernible but it's not nothing - more robust RB in the first third of the draft. Every round is lower (e.g., total after 1st, total after 2nd, total after....6th) Rounds 1-6.

RBs drafted by round last 4 years - 12 team full PPR

Round​	2024	2023	2022	2021
1.​	4	5	8	8	6.25
2.​	7 (11)	4 (9)	6 (14)	7 (15)	6.00
3.​	3 (14)	6 (15)	2 (16)	3 (18)	3.50
4.​	2 (16)	4 (19)	6 (22)	5 (23)	4.25
5.​	3 (19)	4 (23)	1 (23)	2 (25)	2.50
6.​	5 (24)	3 (26)	4 (27)	3 (28)	3.75
7.​	4	5	3	4	4.00
8.​	4	4	3	2	3.25
9.​	3 (35)	2 (37)	5 (38)	2 (36)	3.00
10.​	3	3	3	5	3.50
11.​	6	3	5	2	4.00
12.​	3 (47)	7 (50)	2 (48)	3 (46)	3.75
13.​	1	2	1	2	1.50
14.​	4	3	5	4	4.00
15.​	2 (54)	4 (59)	3 (57)	3 (55)	3.00
16.​	2	3	0	3	2.00
17.​	1	1	2	1	1.25
18.​	2	3	1	1	1.75
Total​	59	66	60	60	61.25

Maybe it's just normal variance but at the top third of the draft the trend is only going one way - more and more WRs taken earlier than the year(s) before.

I mean, the most obvious thing is that it's becoming more and more of a passing league every single year. RBs don't dominate being taken early anymore. Also, injuries seem to be way up every year (at least the perception is), and a lot of people want to not lose an early round pick to injury. Also there's a lot more rbbc these days and less of the bellcow back. Those stud RBs still get gobbled up early in the first round, but they're definitely getting taken later and later every year.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Maybe it's just normal variance but at the top third of the draft the trend is only going one way - more and more WRs taken earlier than the year(s) before.

I’ve actually had the opposite experience - seeing more and more “boomer drafts” with RB-RB.

I feel like last year the pendulum swung a little too far towards WR in the 1st 3 rounds and people have adjusted. Maybe even over corrected a little.

Personally, I love me some hero ball, but you have to be in a position to capitalize.

I also think we have a deeper pool of QB and TE this year, which is also altering the landscape of the first 3-4 rounds. I’ve seen LaPorta go in the 2nd once, but typically he’s been a 3rd rounder along with Kelce and McBride.

This time last year Kelce was a consensus 1st round pick. (I looked at last year’s home league draft board and he went 1.09)

Lack of TE in the 1st 2 rounds and more and more people waiting to pull the trigger on a QB probably means more RB & WR in the top 1/5 of most drafts.

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

I explained a few posts down from that one. I don’t hate him, but i don’t see him giving elite production to justify his draft capital, especially with Knox still on the team

I happily took him 5.01 from the 1 position in a 12-team 3RR. I think he’s in for a monster year.

It's funny how you consider Kyler a reach at 6.03 and I consider Kincaid a reach at 5.01. Not saying either of us is right or wrong. (Eh, who am I kidding? We're probably both wrong.)

 

[urbanhack]

all 3 Bears' WRs taken before 1 Bill's WR taken.

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

all 3 Bears' WRs taken before 1 Bill's WR taken.

What's crazy is that everyone is in on the Bears, Texans and Packers offenses, but Bears/Texans WRs are all going early and none of the Packers are. I get why, but I kind of feel like we'll look back at the end of the year and realize we were wrong in at least one of those situations. (And I say that as someone who has drafted Moore/Nico early, Dell in the mid rounds and Wicks late, and would gladly draft Diggs, Reed, Allen and Odunze at the right price)