Drafting at #3 (1 Viewer)

[Native]

I noticed that the index thread didnt have a discussion dedicated to picking #3, so I figured Id start one. Forgive me if a thread has already been started and feel free to merge if necessary.

Picking third is a blessing this year. With three top-tier, cant miss (or near cant-miss) RB's in the draft, picking third allows you to take the leftover stud that falls out of the top 2. In many cases, that stud is Shaun Alexander, although Im seeing LT2 fall more often in the last few days. In anycase, 1.3 will probably be the easiest selection in the entire draft.

It gets a bit more complicated in round two. The good news is, with 21 picks off the board, there should still be 2-3 top-tier players available. As I said, picking third is a great place to be drafting. The question is, do you nab one of the remaining elite WR's in round two, or do you select the best available RB on the board?

Personally, Im tempted to go WR in round two (and RB in round 3) for the simple reason that Im afraid the last of the top-tier WR's will go off the board in between my second and third picks (think Boldin, Fitz, Harrison). If you dont pick a stud WR at 2.10, there may not be one left 5 picks later. In contrast, everyone seems to like different second-tier RB's. Some guys are targeting Dom Davis, other guys like Kevin Jones. I guess it depends on who you like. Ive seen everyone from Mcghaee to Westbrook on the board at 2.10. If I tagged one of those guys as a top 10 RB, I would consider bypassing the stud WR in round two and snag the RB.

The late second/early third is also a prime spot to pick Antonio Gates, if youre not satisfied with the talent still on the board.

I would be interested to start a discussion and hear peoples opinion on the subject. What do you guys have to say?

 

[wannabee]

I posted this in the ACF:

I mentioned in another thread the thought of "sluffing" RB2 position. How is it used? This post details how. I will have another post with more details on this strategy this weekend.

If you draft (in redraft) 1.01-1.04 and have a star RB1, you are very happy with your RB1 and should have an advantage over most teams at that one spot. But, on the other hand, these same teams pick twice before you pick again. Most will try to take two RBs back-to-back to make up the lack of a stud RB1. If you take a below average RB2 in 2nd round or in 3rd round, you are allowing those teams to catch up to the points they know they are losing between your stud RB1 and their "ok" RB1. Other teams want you to think you HAVE to play catch up at RB2 and take another RB in 2nd and maybe 3rd round. Do not do it. This strategy I am advocating is one to gain advantage elsewhere without losing points at RB2. I will assume I have pick 1.02 and walk through the options and issues.

I see the dropoff at wr as fairly steep after the top 10 (either due to talent, injury, situation, etc) and I like Gates (much more in PPR). I have the top 10 (in no order): Smith, TO, CJohnson, Fitz, Boldin, Holt, Moss, Harrison, Wayne, and Chambers. I know some might like guys like Roy Williams, Ward, Plax, DJax, Walker, etc as equal or better than some of the top 10 WRs. But, each of these WRs above the top 10 are risky, imo and their ADP reinforces it. I see Ward, who has the WR11 ADP as least risky, but still not the upside/risk ratio Chambers has, imo. The ADPs for top 15 WRs are at the bottom of the post.

Per ADP, here are the options at 2.11:

20 19 -1 WR5 Larry Fitzgerald Ari/9

21 22 1 WR6 Randy Moss Oak/3

22 23 1 WR7 Marvin Harrison Ind/6

23 21 -2 RB15 Julius Jones Dal/3

24 25 1 RB16 Kevin Jones Det/8

25 24 -1 WR8 Anquan Boldin Ari/9

26 26 0 RB17 Willie Parker Pit/4

To me, the WRs look like much better plays here than the RBs in terms of production and reduced risk. The RBs in this range do have upside, but they carry risk. If there was no risk, some of these RBs (KJ, JJ, and FWP) would be top 15 picks. Since we have a very good advantage at RB1, how can we gain advantage at another position? We take WR1 here. Remember, this strategy only works and gives you a HUGE advantage if we can gain RB2 production through other means -> "sluffing RB2".

So, now we have a top 2 RB and a top 5 or 6 WR. We are ecstatic the way this has gone so far.

We are back on the clock at 3.02. What are our choices now?

24 25 1 RB16 Kevin Jones Det/8

25 24 -1 WR8 Anquan Boldin Ari/9

26 26 0 RB17 Willie Parker Pit/4

27 27 0 TE1 Antonio Gates SD/3

28 29 1 WR9 Chris Chambers Mia/8

29 28 -1 RB18 Jamal Lewis Bal/7

30 30 0 RB19 Reuben Droughns Cle/6

31 32 1 WR10 Reggie Wayne Ind/6

32 31 -1 RB20 Reggie Bush NO/7

33 33 0 RB21 Chester Taylor Min/6

I can see taking KJ, FWP, Lewis, Taylor, etc here moreso than in 2nd round, but I think we can have a better team if we take another stud player here and gain advantage again. So, if we take another WR, we will have two top 10 WRs AND one top 2 RB. The only other thought would be to take Gates here in the third. This is a good thought as well, but even more effective in PPR leagues.

So, now, we have a top 2 RB, and two top 10 WRs, have to wait a long time before we pick again. But, I would be VERY happy at this point with these players, for example: LJ, Marvin, and Chambers. You can use whichever players you want in there.

On to round 4 .... we have pick 4.11 or pick 46. Here are the ADPs available to us here:

44 43 -1 QB3 Tom Brady NE/6

45 46 1 WR16 Donald Driver GB/6

46 44 -2 WR17 Javon Walker Den/4

47 48 1 WR18 Andre Johnson Hou/5

48 50 2 TE2 Jeremy Shockey NYG/4

49 54 5 RB26 Joseph Addai Ind/6

50 49 -1 RB27 Deuce McAllister NO/7

51 52 1 RB28 Cedric Benson Chi/7

52 47 -5 RB29 Thomas Jones Chi/7

53 51 -2 QB4 Matt Hasselbeck Sea/5

54 53 -1 TE3 Tony Gonzalez KC/3

55 55 0 QB5 Eli Manning NYG

Given these ADPs, I see us having three very good choices. Here is the detail and the rationale:

a. Take a QB to continue the strategy. If take QB or TE here, we MUST load up on RBs later but we should not have to address other positions for a while. If we take a QB here, we have another top 5 player at his position which is VERY desireable.

b. Take Shockey. He is the second ranked TE and gives us an advantage at yet another position.

c. Start implementing the "sluff RB2" strategy. This strategy would lead us to take either Addai or Benson. With the "sluff RB2" strategy, it is very important to get combos/handcuffs for some of your RBs meaning we will need to get Rhodes or Tom Jones later.

At this point, depending on the scoring system, I am inclined to take Shockey unless Brady or Palmer drop to us.

So, we now have a top 2 RB, two top 10 WRs, and a top 2 TE. Very happy so far.

On to round five where we have pick 5.02 or pick 50 overall. Here are the ADP options:

46 44 -2 WR17 Javon Walker Den/4

47 48 1 WR18 Andre Johnson Hou/5

48 50 2 TE2 Jeremy Shockey NYG/4

49 54 5 RB26 Joseph Addai Ind/6

50 49 -1 RB27 Deuce McAllister NO/7

51 52 1 RB28 Cedric Benson Chi/7

52 47 -5 RB29 Thomas Jones Chi/7

53 51 -2 QB4 Matt Hasselbeck Sea/5

54 53 -1 TE3 Tony Gonzalez KC/3

55 55 0 QB5 Eli Manning NYG/4

Now, this is where we start implementing our strategy. I would take Addai here. Personally, I am not as high on Addai as other people are. One note, which will be expounded upon in the "sluff RB2" post is that the RB combos from the same team must NOT be RBBC, but rather a defined starter and backup each week. I think the Indy situation fits that definition. Addai and Rhodes may each start several games, but we should know ahead of time which ones. By getting Addai here, we must now look to see what Rhodes' ADP is. His ADP is pick 73 overall, see below:

73 68 -5 RB35 Dominic Rhodes Ind/6

To implement this strategy, we must be willing to take Rhodes earlier, even much earlier than others would just to guarantee ourselves the combo of Addai/Rhodes. We will have to take Rhodes at our next pick which is pick 70.

So, now after six rounds our lineup could look like: QB?, RB1 - LJ, RB2 - Addai/Rhodes, WR1 - Harrison, WR2 - Chambers, and TE - Shockey.

I think most would be VERY happy with this lineup going forward. All we need are more RBs, and a decent QB, but we are well on our way to a very good draft. I look for Addai/Rhodes to score approximately on par with (and with less injury risk) the RBs available at our 2nd round pick (KJones, JJones, and FWP).

I will have a follow up post (hopefully by tomorrow night) detailing opportunities on each NFL team to "sluff RB2" or even the RB3 position in order to gain advantages at other positions.

To summarize my "sluff RB2" thoughts, I think RB2 can be just as effective with a combination of a couple of RBs with upside (let's say MB3, DWilliams, Morency and Gore) mixed in with 1-2 RB combos from the same team at bargain prices Green/Gado, Addai/Rhodes, etc.

ADP for top 15 WRs referenced above:

12 12 0 WR1 Steve Smith Car/9

16 18 2 WR2 Terrell Owens Dal/3

17 17 0 WR3 Chad Johnson Cin/5

19 20 1 WR4 Torry Holt StL/7

20 19 -1 WR5 Larry Fitzgerald Ari/9

21 22 1 WR6 Randy Moss Oak/3

22 23 1 WR7 Marvin Harrison Ind/6

25 24 -1 WR8 Anquan Boldin Ari/9

28 29 1 WR9 Chris Chambers Mia/8

31 32 1 WR10 Reggie Wayne Ind/6

35 34 -1 WR11 Hines Ward Pit/4

36 36 0 WR12 Darrell Jackson Sea/5

37 39 2 WR13 Roy Williams Det/8

38 37 -1 WR14 Santana Moss Was/8

40 40 0 WR15 Plaxico Burress NYG/4

this was for 1.02

 

[MLBrandow]

1st round - LJ, Portis, LT

2nd round - WR of Smith, Holt, Boldin, 85, Owens, Harrison, Fitz. If gone, RB

3rd round - WR of Wayne, Burress, Driver, etc

4th round - Palmer, if he's there. if start 3WR, I take another WR here.

5th round - Foster

6th round - Rhodes

7th round - DWill

8th round - A.Green

9th round - Ben Watson

10th round - A.Brooks/Brunell

 

[Native]

Is Wayne officially in Marvins class? Is he now considered a top tier WR? I personally wouldnt include him in the top-tier of WR's.

 

[Wingnut]

Nice post wannabee.

Im in a lttle different situation, as I have the 3 slot in 1 and 2 (1.03 and 2.10), but also have pick 2.12 (no 3rd round pick)...then in 4 I have 4.10 and 4.12 (no 5th rounder)

The plan right now is to take RB in 1, then go WR-WR with my next 2 picks, then with my next 2 Ill either go RB/QB or RB/RB or RB/WR....Im taking at least one RB for sure though. If a QB I like is there, Ill go QB...If not Ill take the RB and best value of whatever WR or RB is left.

Im not about taking TEs early...Ill grab one around rounds 6 or 7 at the earliest.

Being in a start 3 WR league makes this strategy a no brainer for me. Ill get a top RB and 2 STUD WRs to start off the draft.

 

[cantstop1999]

I posted this in the ACF:I mentioned in another thread the thought of "sluffing" RB2 position. How is it used? This post details how. I will have another post with more details on this strategy this weekend.If you draft (in redraft) 1.01-1.04 and have a star RB1, you are very happy with your RB1 and should have an advantage over most teams at that one spot. But, on the other hand, these same teams pick twice before you pick again. Most will try to take two RBs back-to-back to make up the lack of a stud RB1. If you take a below average RB2 in 2nd round or in 3rd round, you are allowing those teams to catch up to the points they know they are losing between your stud RB1 and their "ok" RB1. Other teams want you to think you HAVE to play catch up at RB2 and take another RB in 2nd and maybe 3rd round. Do not do it. This strategy I am advocating is one to gain advantage elsewhere without losing points at RB2. I will assume I have pick 1.02 and walk through the options and issues.I see the dropoff at wr as fairly steep after the top 10 (either due to talent, injury, situation, etc) and I like Gates (much more in PPR). I have the top 10 (in no order): Smith, TO, CJohnson, Fitz, Boldin, Holt, Moss, Harrison, Wayne, and Chambers. I know some might like guys like Roy Williams, Ward, Plax, DJax, Walker, etc as equal or better than some of the top 10 WRs. But, each of these WRs above the top 10 are risky, imo and their ADP reinforces it. I see Ward, who has the WR11 ADP as least risky, but still not the upside/risk ratio Chambers has, imo. The ADPs for top 15 WRs are at the bottom of the post.Per ADP, here are the options at 2.11:20 19 -1 WR5 Larry Fitzgerald Ari/9 21 22 1 WR6 Randy Moss Oak/3 22 23 1 WR7 Marvin Harrison Ind/6 23 21 -2 RB15 Julius Jones Dal/3 24 25 1 RB16 Kevin Jones Det/8 25 24 -1 WR8 Anquan Boldin Ari/9 26 26 0 RB17 Willie Parker Pit/4 To me, the WRs look like much better plays here than the RBs in terms of production and reduced risk. The RBs in this range do have upside, but they carry risk. If there was no risk, some of these RBs (KJ, JJ, and FWP) would be top 15 picks. Since we have a very good advantage at RB1, how can we gain advantage at another position? We take WR1 here. Remember, this strategy only works and gives you a HUGE advantage if we can gain RB2 production through other means -> "sluffing RB2".So, now we have a top 2 RB and a top 5 or 6 WR. We are ecstatic the way this has gone so far.We are back on the clock at 3.02. What are our choices now?24 25 1 RB16 Kevin Jones Det/8 25 24 -1 WR8 Anquan Boldin Ari/9 26 26 0 RB17 Willie Parker Pit/4 27 27 0 TE1 Antonio Gates SD/3 28 29 1 WR9 Chris Chambers Mia/8 29 28 -1 RB18 Jamal Lewis Bal/7 30 30 0 RB19 Reuben Droughns Cle/6 31 32 1 WR10 Reggie Wayne Ind/6 32 31 -1 RB20 Reggie Bush NO/7 33 33 0 RB21 Chester Taylor Min/6 I can see taking KJ, FWP, Lewis, Taylor, etc here moreso than in 2nd round, but I think we can have a better team if we take another stud player here and gain advantage again. So, if we take another WR, we will have two top 10 WRs AND one top 2 RB. The only other thought would be to take Gates here in the third. This is a good thought as well, but even more effective in PPR leagues.So, now, we have a top 2 RB, and two top 10 WRs, have to wait a long time before we pick again. But, I would be VERY happy at this point with these players, for example: LJ, Marvin, and Chambers. You can use whichever players you want in there.On to round 4 .... we have pick 4.11 or pick 46. Here are the ADPs available to us here:44 43 -1 QB3 Tom Brady NE/6 45 46 1 WR16 Donald Driver GB/6 46 44 -2 WR17 Javon Walker Den/4 47 48 1 WR18 Andre Johnson Hou/5 48 50 2 TE2 Jeremy Shockey NYG/4 49 54 5 RB26 Joseph Addai Ind/6 50 49 -1 RB27 Deuce McAllister NO/7 51 52 1 RB28 Cedric Benson Chi/7 52 47 -5 RB29 Thomas Jones Chi/7 53 51 -2 QB4 Matt Hasselbeck Sea/5 54 53 -1 TE3 Tony Gonzalez KC/3 55 55 0 QB5 Eli Manning NYG Given these ADPs, I see us having three very good choices. Here is the detail and the rationale:a. Take a QB to continue the strategy. If take QB or TE here, we MUST load up on RBs later but we should not have to address other positions for a while. If we take a QB here, we have another top 5 player at his position which is VERY desireable.b. Take Shockey. He is the second ranked TE and gives us an advantage at yet another position.c. Start implementing the "sluff RB2" strategy. This strategy would lead us to take either Addai or Benson. With the "sluff RB2" strategy, it is very important to get combos/handcuffs for some of your RBs meaning we will need to get Rhodes or Tom Jones later. At this point, depending on the scoring system, I am inclined to take Shockey unless Brady or Palmer drop to us.So, we now have a top 2 RB, two top 10 WRs, and a top 2 TE. Very happy so far.On to round five where we have pick 5.02 or pick 50 overall. Here are the ADP options:46 44 -2 WR17 Javon Walker Den/4 47 48 1 WR18 Andre Johnson Hou/5 48 50 2 TE2 Jeremy Shockey NYG/4 49 54 5 RB26 Joseph Addai Ind/6 50 49 -1 RB27 Deuce McAllister NO/7 51 52 1 RB28 Cedric Benson Chi/7 52 47 -5 RB29 Thomas Jones Chi/7 53 51 -2 QB4 Matt Hasselbeck Sea/5 54 53 -1 TE3 Tony Gonzalez KC/3 55 55 0 QB5 Eli Manning NYG/4 Now, this is where we start implementing our strategy. I would take Addai here. Personally, I am not as high on Addai as other people are. One note, which will be expounded upon in the "sluff RB2" post is that the RB combos from the same team must NOT be RBBC, but rather a defined starter and backup each week. I think the Indy situation fits that definition. Addai and Rhodes may each start several games, but we should know ahead of time which ones. By getting Addai here, we must now look to see what Rhodes' ADP is. His ADP is pick 73 overall, see below:73 68 -5 RB35 Dominic Rhodes Ind/6 To implement this strategy, we must be willing to take Rhodes earlier, even much earlier than others would just to guarantee ourselves the combo of Addai/Rhodes. We will have to take Rhodes at our next pick which is pick 70.So, now after six rounds our lineup could look like: QB?, RB1 - LJ, RB2 - Addai/Rhodes, WR1 - Harrison, WR2 - Chambers, and TE - Shockey.I think most would be VERY happy with this lineup going forward. All we need are more RBs, and a decent QB, but we are well on our way to a very good draft. I look for Addai/Rhodes to score approximately on par with (and with less injury risk) the RBs available at our 2nd round pick (KJones, JJones, and FWP).I will have a follow up post (hopefully by tomorrow night) detailing opportunities on each NFL team to "sluff RB2" or even the RB3 position in order to gain advantages at other positions.To summarize my "sluff RB2" thoughts, I think RB2 can be just as effective with a combination of a couple of RBs with upside (let's say MB3, DWilliams, Morency and Gore) mixed in with 1-2 RB combos from the same team at bargain prices Green/Gado, Addai/Rhodes, etc.ADP for top 15 WRs referenced above:12 12 0 WR1 Steve Smith Car/9 16 18 2 WR2 Terrell Owens Dal/3 17 17 0 WR3 Chad Johnson Cin/5 19 20 1 WR4 Torry Holt StL/7 20 19 -1 WR5 Larry Fitzgerald Ari/9 21 22 1 WR6 Randy Moss Oak/3 22 23 1 WR7 Marvin Harrison Ind/6 25 24 -1 WR8 Anquan Boldin Ari/9 28 29 1 WR9 Chris Chambers Mia/8 31 32 1 WR10 Reggie Wayne Ind/6 35 34 -1 WR11 Hines Ward Pit/4 36 36 0 WR12 Darrell Jackson Sea/5 37 39 2 WR13 Roy Williams Det/8 38 37 -1 WR14 Santana Moss Was/8 40 40 0 WR15 Plaxico Burress NYG/4this was for 1.02

excellent, i love this artical, im in the same spot and think the same exact way,nice job

 

[Native]

I also like the strategy Wannabee.

 

[J-LEW]

I drafted from the #3 spot a few weeks ago in a local league. A few players did slip, which is why

my team looks pretty solid.

1.03 L.Tomlinson - SA and LJ went 1 and 2

2.10 T.Holt - Gates went one pick before mine, or else I might have considered him

3.03 D.Foster - RB's were going like crazy, but I knew I could get Williams alot later than most drafts

4.10 D.Driver - 1200 yards and 5 TD's last year, very nice WR #2

5.03 D.Rhodes - was surprised he was still available, along with Addai

6.10 J.Addai - good value I think

7.03 D.Williams - a bit later than he normally should go

from there I filled out my roster with Plummber,Brooks at QB, Reg. Brown at WR, Wilkins, Carolina D, as well as a load of RB's with high upside. Guys like G.Jones, V.Morency.

 

[DoubleG]

Nice post wannabee.Im in a lttle different situation, as I have the 3 slot in 1 and 2 (1.03 and 2.10), but also have pick 2.12 (no 3rd round pick)...then in 4 I have 4.10 and 4.12 (no 5th rounder)The plan right now is to take RB in 1, then go WR-WR with my next 2 picks, then with my next 2 Ill either go RB/QB or RB/RB or RB/WR....Im taking at least one RB for sure though. If a QB I like is there, Ill go QB...If not Ill take the RB and best value of whatever WR or RB is left.Im not about taking TEs early...Ill grab one around rounds 6 or 7 at the earliest.Being in a start 3 WR league makes this strategy a no brainer for me. Ill get a top RB and 2 STUD WRs to start off the draft.

I agree 100% - in a start 3 WR league it seems that many people under-value WR, when in fact drafting early allows you to dictate the "tempo" of the draft. In essence, your switching to WR-WR in rounds 2 & 3 forces everyone else to stop trying to steal your RB2 combos and look at WRs before the "run on WRs" starts, thereby keeping you ahead of the curve instead of reacting to everyone else.

 

[Native]

Nice post wannabee.Im in a lttle different situation, as I have the 3 slot in 1 and 2 (1.03 and 2.10), but also have pick 2.12 (no 3rd round pick)...then in 4 I have 4.10 and 4.12 (no 5th rounder)The plan right now is to take RB in 1, then go WR-WR with my next 2 picks, then with my next 2 Ill either go RB/QB or RB/RB or RB/WR....Im taking at least one RB for sure though. If a QB I like is there, Ill go QB...If not Ill take the RB and best value of whatever WR or RB is left.Im not about taking TEs early...Ill grab one around rounds 6 or 7 at the earliest.Being in a start 3 WR league makes this strategy a no brainer for me. Ill get a top RB and 2 STUD WRs to start off the draft.

I agree 100% - in a start 3 WR league it seems that many people under-value WR, when in fact drafting early allows you to dictate the "tempo" of the draft. In essence, your switching to WR-WR in rounds 2 & 3 forces everyone else to stop trying to steal your RB2 combos and look at WRs before the "run on WRs" starts, thereby keeping you ahead of the curve instead of reacting to everyone else.

The problem is that the WR run has been starting at the BEGINNING of round two, not the end of round two. In most scenarios Ive seen, guys like Steve Smith, Chad Johnson, Holt, Owens, Fitz etc have all been selected before 2.10. So while I agree that it may be beneficial to take two WRs in the first three picks, I wouldnt necessary call that "starting a run". If anything, youd be ending a run with two WR's (Boldin, Chambers?) in the first three picks.

 

[Wingnut]

Nice post wannabee.

Im in a lttle different situation, as I have the 3 slot in 1 and 2 (1.03 and 2.10), but also have pick 2.12 (no 3rd round pick)...then in 4 I have 4.10 and 4.12 (no 5th rounder)

The plan right now is to take RB in 1, then go WR-WR with my next 2 picks, then with my next 2 Ill either go RB/QB or RB/RB or RB/WR....Im taking at least one RB for sure though. If a QB I like is there, Ill go QB...If not Ill take the RB and best value of whatever WR or RB is left.

Im not about taking TEs early...Ill grab one around rounds 6 or 7 at the earliest.

Being in a start 3 WR league makes this strategy a no brainer for me. Ill get a top RB and 2 STUD WRs to start off the draft.

I agree 100% - in a start 3 WR league it seems that many people under-value WR, when in fact drafting early allows you to dictate the "tempo" of the draft. In essence, your switching to WR-WR in rounds 2 & 3 forces everyone else to stop trying to steal your RB2 combos and look at WRs before the "run on WRs" starts, thereby keeping you ahead of the curve instead of reacting to everyone else.

The problem is that the WR run has been starting at the BEGINNING of round two, not the end of round two. In most scenarios Ive seen, guys like Steve Smith, Chad Johnson, Holt, Owens, Fitz etc have all been selected before 2.10. So while I agree that it may be beneficial to take two WRs in the first three picks, I wouldnt necessary call that "starting a run". If anything, youd be ending a run with two WR's (Boldin, Chambers?) in the first three picks.

Ahh, but the beauty is in MY league, which I have past draft info from the last 9 years, Im 98% POSITIVE that only 3, maybe 4 WRs AT THE MOST will be off the board before my 2nd pick. The guys in my league are so scared of not getting a decent RB2 that the WR run usually starts near the end of round 2.Over the last 4 years, the number of WRs off the board by pick 2.10 has been 3, 3, 2, and 3. Its pretty safe to say that 4 could be gone, but thats a worst case scenario. The beauty is that in those same years, the number of RBs that come off the board between my 3rd and 4th picks have been 3, 3, 4, and 5....So the RB dropoff isnt bad at all if I wait till my 4th pick to take RB2.

I love knowing how my leaguemates draft...it almost makes it unfair

 

[Deuce'sWild]

I have the #3 pick, and I'm thinking RB-WR-WR-WR-RB. Just seems like there is a big dropoff in WR talent, and that there are a few RBs going late that could surprise, and their handcuffs are pretty cheap. Dillon, Foster, Rhodes, etc...

 

[Native]

In order to take the conversation a bit deeper, lets throw out some names for discussions sake:

For example, what do you guys think of Kevin Jones at 3.3? Hes usually one of the more attractive 2nd tier backs at the 2/3 turn. Moreover, he seems to have a golden opportunity in Mike Martzs' offense both a runner and a receiver. If you went RB/WR in rounds one and two, would you consider a runner like him at that spot? How do you rate him vs guys like Chambers, Wayne, or alternatively, Antonio Gates? Other runners that still could be on the board at 3,3 include Dom Davis ( ), Willie Parker ( ), Reggie Bush ( ) and Jamal Lewis ( ). Of course, the downside of taking ANY RB at 3.3 is twofold:

1) Most of the backs still on the board in the early third will have some kind of major flaw (KJ's flaw is that he plays for the Lions, )

2) Their seems to be a dropoff in WR around the middle of round three. So if you dont secure two WR's early, you may find yourself struggling to fill the position in later rounds.

In short, there seems to be a dearth of RB options in early round three, which sort of forces our hand a bit. Unless you fall in love with a particular runner, it will be awfully hard to ignore the best available WR/TE in the third.

 

[Deuce'sWild]

In order to take the conversation a bit deeper, lets throw out some names for discussions sake:For example, what do you guys think of Kevin Jones at 3.3? Hes usually one of the more attractive 2nd tier backs at the 2/3 turn. Moreover, he seems to have a golden opportunity in Mike Martzs' offense both a runner and a receiver. If you went RB/WR in rounds one and two, would you consider a runner like him at that spot? How do you rate him vs guys like Chambers, Wayne, or alternatively, Antonio Gates? Other runners that still could be on the board at 3,3 include Dom Davis ( ), Willie Parker ( ), Reggie Bush ( ) and Jamal Lewis ( ). Of course, the downside of taking ANY RB at 3.3 is twofold:1) Most of the backs still on the board in the early third will have some kind of major flaw (KJ's flaw is that he plays for the Lions, )2) Their seems to be a dropoff in WR around the middle of round three. So if you dont secure two WR's early, you may find yourself struggling to fill the position in later rounds. In short, there seems to be a dearth of RB options in early round three, which sort of forces our hand a bit. Unless you fall in love with a particular runner, it will be awfully hard to ignore the best available WR/TE in the third.

Per the projections I have made, I have Moss, Harrison, Fitz, and Chambers all being more valuable than Kevin Jones and Willie Parker (two Rbs I'm targetting in the 3rd/4th.Thus, I'm looking at getting one of those WRs first, if not there I'm going to look for KJ or Parker in the 3rd. If they aren't there, I'm using DD to draft for value.

 

[mr blond]

In order to take the conversation a bit deeper, lets throw out some names for discussions sake:

For example, what do you guys think of Kevin Jones at 3.3? Hes usually one of the more attractive 2nd tier backs at the 2/3 turn. Moreover, he seems to have a golden opportunity in Mike Martzs' offense both a runner and a receiver. If you went RB/WR in rounds one and two, would you consider a runner like him at that spot? How do you rate him vs guys like Chambers, Wayne, or alternatively, Antonio Gates? Other runners that still could be on the board at 3,3 include Dom Davis ( ), Willie Parker ( ), Reggie Bush ( ) and Jamal Lewis ( ). Of course, the downside of taking ANY RB at 3.3 is twofold:

1) Most of the backs still on the board in the early third will have some kind of major flaw (KJ's flaw is that he plays for the Lions, )

2) Their seems to be a dropoff in WR around the middle of round three. So if you dont secure two WR's early, you may find yourself struggling to fill the position in later rounds.

In short, there seems to be a dearth of RB options in early round three, which sort of forces our hand a bit. Unless you fall in love with a particular runner, it will be awfully hard to ignore the best available WR/TE in the third.

I don't agree 100% with the statement bolded above. I feel the top tier WR's will be gone by early in the 3rd, maybe even before 3.03 gets back around. However, Chambers, Ward, Wayne, S. Moss and D. Jackson all have 3rd round ADP's. Driver, Walker, Burress and Roy WIlliams are being drafted in round 4. I see that drop off you mention mid-late 4th round. I think this is the year to draft RB/WR/WR or TE if one of your top tier WR's or Gates is available in the 3rd. I'd target Kevin Jones, Chester Taylor, Dom Davis or Willie Parker in round 3 if not.

 

[DoubleG]

In order to take the conversation a bit deeper, lets throw out some names for discussions sake:For example, what do you guys think of Kevin Jones at 3.3? Hes usually one of the more attractive 2nd tier backs at the 2/3 turn. Moreover, he seems to have a golden opportunity in Mike Martzs' offense both a runner and a receiver. If you went RB/WR in rounds one and two, would you consider a runner like him at that spot? How do you rate him vs guys like Chambers, Wayne, or alternatively, Antonio Gates? Alternatively, other runners still on the board at 3,3 are Dom Davis ( ), Willie Parker ( ), Reggie Bush ( ) and Jamal Lewis shakeno. Of course, the downside of taking ANY RB at 3.3 is twofold:1) Most of the backs still on the board in the early third will have some kind of major flaw (KJ's flas is that he plays for the Lions, )2) Their seems to be a dropoff in WR around the middle of round three. So if you dont secure two WR's early, you may find yourself sruggling to fill the position in later rounds. In short, there seems to be a dearth of RB options in round three, which sort of forces our hand a bit. Unless you fall in love with a partcular runner, it will be awfully hard to ignore the best available WR/TE in the third.

I think Wingnut's point is well taken (and probably more the norm in most leagues) - that is, that the difference in RB you could get at 3.3 versus the RB you're going to get in the 4th are not nearly as great as the difference in WRs that will be available later if you wait - especially if most of your league mates have gone RB-RB and see you snagging all the good WRs! In a 3 WR league you can pretty well dominate with 2 stud WRs, a stud RB and solid players at other positions. (Filling that WR3 hole is fairly simple - especially in a 12 team league) - the same holds true for (as already outlined) a weak "combo" RB2 (Green/Gado and Rhodes/Addai as examples). My point is simply that most owners have a tendancy to go RB-RB, which means that most, if not all of the stud WRs will still be there near the 2/3 turn (as a Manning and maybe even Gates lover will have picked in there somewhere) With 3.3 (or in Wingnut's case, the 2.10 & 2.12) you should be able to snag 2 stud WRs, while your leagumates, with 2 RBs each (or an RB+ Manning or an RB+Gates) should turn their attention to WRs - leaving the combo RBs for you at the 4/5 (or, in Wingnut's case the 4.10/4.12)You could easily end up with a roster that looks like this by the end of the 5th:RB1 - Tomlinson/ShAlex/LJ (one of them!)RB2 - Rhodes & AddaiWR1 - Larry FitzgeraldWR2 - Chad JohnsonNot a bad start! I agree with Native that the flaw with taking an RB at 3.3 is that most have a major flaw/question mark - be it injury, a bad team, the possibility of being RBBC - which is why I'd wait to snag my RB2. You still have question marks at RB2, but now you have 2 stud WRs to offset any deficiencies. My point is this:If you're playing me head to head and your RB2 puts up 12 points and my RB2 puts up 7, but your 3 WRs put up a combined 25, while mine put up 40 - I'm still going to win (as long as your kicker didn't kick 5 field goals of 43,54,38,44 & 52 yards - never mind...just let it go)

 

[Native]

In order to take the conversation a bit deeper, lets throw out some names for discussions sake:

For example, what do you guys think of Kevin Jones at 3.3? Hes usually one of the more attractive 2nd tier backs at the 2/3 turn. Moreover, he seems to have a golden opportunity in Mike Martzs' offense both a runner and a receiver. If you went RB/WR in rounds one and two, would you consider a runner like him at that spot? How do you rate him vs guys like Chambers, Wayne, or alternatively, Antonio Gates? Other runners that still could be on the board at 3,3 include Dom Davis ( ), Willie Parker ( ), Reggie Bush ( ) and Jamal Lewis ( ). Of course, the downside of taking ANY RB at 3.3 is twofold:

1) Most of the backs still on the board in the early third will have some kind of major flaw (KJ's flaw is that he plays for the Lions, )

2) Their seems to be a dropoff in WR around the middle of round three. So if you dont secure two WR's early, you may find yourself struggling to fill the position in later rounds.

In short, there seems to be a dearth of RB options in early round three, which sort of forces our hand a bit. Unless you fall in love with a particular runner, it will be awfully hard to ignore the best available WR/TE in the third.

I don't agree 100% with the statement bolded above. I feel the top tier WR's will be gone by early in the 3rd, maybe even before 3.03 gets back around. However, Chambers, Ward, Wayne, S. Moss and D. Jackson all have 3rd round ADP's. Driver, Walker, Burress and Roy WIlliams are being drafted in round 4. I see that drop off you mention mid-late 4th round. I think this is the year to draft RB/WR/WR or TE if one of your top tier WR's or Gates is available in the 3rd. I'd target Kevin Jones, Chester Taylor, Dom Davis or Willie Parker in round 3 if not.

Funny you say that - I have the WR dropoff occurring after Chambers, maybe Wayne. I certainly dont have guys like Ward and Moss in the same category as Chambers and Boldin (and to a lesser extent, Wayne). I have a clear tier seperating the former guys from the latter guys. As such, I would be hesitant to take a third round RB over Chambers/Boldin/Wayne, yet I wouldnt think twice of taking the best available RB over Hines Ward or Darrell Jackson. Maybe Im underestimating these guys?

 

[Native]

In order to take the conversation a bit deeper, lets throw out some names for discussions sake:For example, what do you guys think of Kevin Jones at 3.3? Hes usually one of the more attractive 2nd tier backs at the 2/3 turn. Moreover, he seems to have a golden opportunity in Mike Martzs' offense both a runner and a receiver. If you went RB/WR in rounds one and two, would you consider a runner like him at that spot? How do you rate him vs guys like Chambers, Wayne, or alternatively, Antonio Gates? Alternatively, other runners still on the board at 3,3 are Dom Davis ( ), Willie Parker ( ), Reggie Bush ( ) and Jamal Lewis shakeno. Of course, the downside of taking ANY RB at 3.3 is twofold:1) Most of the backs still on the board in the early third will have some kind of major flaw (KJ's flas is that he plays for the Lions, )2) Their seems to be a dropoff in WR around the middle of round three. So if you dont secure two WR's early, you may find yourself sruggling to fill the position in later rounds. In short, there seems to be a dearth of RB options in round three, which sort of forces our hand a bit. Unless you fall in love with a partcular runner, it will be awfully hard to ignore the best available WR/TE in the third.

I think Wingnut's point is well taken (and probably more the norm in most leagues) - that is, that the difference in RB you could get at 3.3 versus the RB you're going to get in the 4th are not nearly as great as the difference in WRs that will be available later if you wait - especially if most of your league mates have gone RB-RB and see you snagging all the good WRs! In a 3 WR league you can pretty well dominate with 2 stud WRs, a stud RB and solid players at other positions. (Filling that WR3 hole is fairly simple - especially in a 12 team league) - the same holds true for (as already outlined) a weak "combo" RB2 (Green/Gado and Rhodes/Addai as examples). My point is simply that most owners have a tendancy to go RB-RB, which means that most, if not all of the stud WRs will still be there near the 2/3 turn (as a Manning and maybe even Gates lover will have picked in there somewhere) With 3.3 (or in Wingnut's case, the 2.10 & 2.12) you should be able to snag 2 stud WRs, while your leagumates, with 2 RBs each (or an RB+ Manning or an RB+Gates) should turn their attention to WRs - leaving the combo RBs for you at the 4/5 (or, in Wingnut's case the 4.10/4.12)You could easily end up with a roster that looks like this by the end of the 5th:RB1 - Tomlinson/ShAlex/LJ (one of them!)RB2 - Rhodes & AddaiWR1 - Larry FitzgeraldWR2 - Chad JohnsonNot a bad start! I agree with Native that the flaw with taking an RB at 3.3 is that most have a major flaw/question mark - be it injury, a bad team, the possibility of being RBBC - which is why I'd wait to snag my RB2. You still have question marks at RB2, but now you have 2 stud WRs to offset any deficiencies. My point is this:If you're playing me head to head and your RB2 puts up 12 points and my RB2 puts up 7, but your 3 WRs put up a combined 25, while mine put up 40 - I'm still going to win (as long as your kicker didn't kick 5 field goals of 43,54,38,44 & 52 yards - never mind...just let it go)

Hey DoubleG, I gues every league is different (ah, the beauty of local leagues). In my league, guys dont hesitate to pick WR's in round two, even over super-qualified RB's. This year in particular, with so many questionable Running Back situations (Indi, Carolina, New England, Denver etc), I think my League will have even MORE owners taking WR's early. BTW, check out some of the completed mock drafts at www.fantasyfootballcalculator.com to get an idea just how many WR"s are going off the board in round two. I think youll be surprised.

 

[FFLMASTER]

In order to take the conversation a bit deeper, lets throw out some names for discussions sake:

For example, what do you guys think of Kevin Jones at 3.3? Hes usually one of the more attractive 2nd tier backs at the 2/3 turn. Moreover, he seems to have a golden opportunity in Mike Martzs' offense both a runner and a receiver. If you went RB/WR in rounds one and two, would you consider a runner like him at that spot? How do you rate him vs guys like Chambers, Wayne, or alternatively, Antonio Gates? Alternatively, other runners still on the board at 3,3 are Dom Davis ( ), Willie Parker ( ), Reggie Bush ( ) and Jamal Lewis shakeno. Of course, the downside of taking ANY RB at 3.3 is twofold:

1) Most of the backs still on the board in the early third will have some kind of major flaw (KJ's flas is that he plays for the Lions, )

2) Their seems to be a dropoff in WR around the middle of round three. So if you dont secure two WR's early, you may find yourself sruggling to fill the position in later rounds.

In short, there seems to be a dearth of RB options in round three, which sort of forces our hand a bit. Unless you fall in love with a partcular runner, it will be awfully hard to ignore the best available WR/TE in the third.

I think Wingnut's point is well taken (and probably more the norm in most leagues) - that is, that the difference in RB you could get at 3.3 versus the RB you're going to get in the 4th are not nearly as great as the difference in WRs that will be available later if you wait - especially if most of your league mates have gone RB-RB and see you snagging all the good WRs! In a 3 WR league you can pretty well dominate with 2 stud WRs, a stud RB and solid players at other positions. (Filling that WR3 hole is fairly simple - especially in a 12 team league) - the same holds true for (as already outlined) a weak "combo" RB2 (Green/Gado and Rhodes/Addai as examples). My point is simply that most owners have a tendancy to go RB-RB, which means that most, if not all of the stud WRs will still be there near the 2/3 turn (as a Manning and maybe even Gates lover will have picked in there somewhere) With 3.3 (or in Wingnut's case, the 2.10 & 2.12) you should be able to snag 2 stud WRs, while your leagumates, with 2 RBs each (or an RB+ Manning or an RB+Gates) should turn their attention to WRs - leaving the combo RBs for you at the 4/5 (or, in Wingnut's case the 4.10/4.12)

You could easily end up with a roster that looks like this by the end of the 5th:

RB1 - Tomlinson/ShAlex/LJ (one of them!)

RB2 - Rhodes & Addai

WR1 - Larry Fitzgerald

WR2 - Chad Johnson

Not a bad start! I agree with Native that the flaw with taking an RB at 3.3 is that most have a major flaw/question mark - be it injury, a bad team, the possibility of being RBBC - which is why I'd wait to snag my RB2. You still have question marks at RB2, but now you have 2 stud WRs to offset any deficiencies. My point is this:

If you're playing me head to head and your RB2 puts up 12 points and my RB2 puts up 7, but your 3 WRs put up a combined 25, while mine put up 40 - I'm still going to win (as long as your kicker didn't kick 5 field goals of 43,54,38,44 & 52 yards - never mind...just let it go)

easy?? count your lucky stars if you get this lineup.. you must be in a league full of guppies.in my home league, which has a few sharks and some guppies, a lot of owners will draft the rb-rb philosophy.

but if you play in leagues like the wcoff you can't expect a wr combo of two top tier players.

i agree with the philosophy of going rb, wr, wr but the problem is you need to get a little lucky in the 4th and 5th round to grab a playable rb.

in my personal opinion, the drop in a good wr#3 is in the 4th or 5th round from the 3rd draft position. when our turn comes again in the 6th and 7th rounds we don't get the quality wr#3. The value could be in another rb or qb.

as for the mentioned combos i don't think most will be a realistic posibility in a shark league.

addai and rhoades will not happen in the wcoff unless you draft both of them in the 4th and 5th rounds

foster and williams will not happen unless you draft foster in the 3rd round. oops now you don't have two top wrs.

benson and jones will also need to be drafted during the 4th and 5th round.

brown and white/henry will not happen at our 4th round pick.

i know you can go by your home leagues and by the adp on myfantasyleague.com and such sights, but if you realistically think this will happen in a shark league, expect to go with plan b.

that leaves green and gado and they i think will be avail. are you happy with a team such as this:

rb1: lj/lt2/sa

rb2: green and gado

wr1: boldin/moss/harrison (no c. johnson and fitz are not going to be available in most leagues)

wr2: chambers (most league will have all top 8 wrs gone by the 3.3 pick)

wr3: branch/walker/tj housh

versus

rb1: lj/lt2/sa

rb2: r. bush/k. jones/w. parker/c. taylor

wr1: boldin/moss/harrison (no c. johnson and fitz are not going to be available in most leagues)

wr2: branch/walker/tj housh

wr3: muhammad/galloway

which team is better? the person who answers this correctly will be looking at a playoff run and the person who answers this incorrectly is wondering how they screwed up again.

all of this and i didn't even talk about what to do in the 3rd if gates is avail. personally i think you can skip gates and get a strong enough te later in the draft.

 

[mr blond]

In order to take the conversation a bit deeper, lets throw out some names for discussions sake:

For example, what do you guys think of Kevin Jones at 3.3? Hes usually one of the more attractive 2nd tier backs at the 2/3 turn. Moreover, he seems to have a golden opportunity in Mike Martzs' offense both a runner and a receiver. If you went RB/WR in rounds one and two, would you consider a runner like him at that spot? How do you rate him vs guys like Chambers, Wayne, or alternatively, Antonio Gates? Other runners that still could be on the board at 3,3 include Dom Davis ( ), Willie Parker ( ), Reggie Bush ( ) and Jamal Lewis ( ). Of course, the downside of taking ANY RB at 3.3 is twofold:

1) Most of the backs still on the board in the early third will have some kind of major flaw (KJ's flaw is that he plays for the Lions, )

2) Their seems to be a dropoff in WR around the middle of round three. So if you dont secure two WR's early, you may find yourself struggling to fill the position in later rounds.

In short, there seems to be a dearth of RB options in early round three, which sort of forces our hand a bit. Unless you fall in love with a particular runner, it will be awfully hard to ignore the best available WR/TE in the third.

I don't agree 100% with the statement bolded above. I feel the top tier WR's will be gone by early in the 3rd, maybe even before 3.03 gets back around. However, Chambers, Ward, Wayne, S. Moss and D. Jackson all have 3rd round ADP's. Driver, Walker, Burress and Roy WIlliams are being drafted in round 4. I see that drop off you mention mid-late 4th round. I think this is the year to draft RB/WR/WR or TE if one of your top tier WR's or Gates is available in the 3rd. I'd target Kevin Jones, Chester Taylor, Dom Davis or Willie Parker in round 3 if not.

Funny you say that - I have the WR dropoff occurring after Chambers, maybe Wayne. I certainly dont have guys like Ward and Moss in the same category as Chambers and Boldin (and to a lesser extent, Wayne). I have a clear tier seperating the former guys from the latter guys. As such, I would be hesitant to take a third round RB over Chambers/Boldin/Wayne, yet I wouldnt think twice of taking the best available RB over Hines Ward or Darrell Jackson. Maybe Im underestimating these guys?

We're on the same page, just have different WR tiers is all. I agree, I take a top tier WR over a RB in round 3.

 

[JAMMIN]

This makes so much sense but its risky. Do most of you guys agree to also take Wayne over FWP, JJ, KJ. or DD. I guess which of these guys would you take Wayne over and which wouldn't you?

By the way

 

[Mapmaker]

This makes so much sense but its risky. Do most of you guys agree to also take Wayne over FWP, JJ, KJ. or DD. I guess which of these guys would you take Wayne over and which wouldn't you?By the way

I don't think it's a risky option, actually with the RB situation being what it is for a great deal of teams in the league this season I think this is one drafting option that presents an opportunity to get maximum value out of your selections ... if ... and that's the BIGGEST little word in the whole piece ... IF things fall your way ...I'm presently drafting out of the 3 hole in a 12 team, PPR league and here's what I've come up with so far1.03 Portis 2.10 Holt3.03 Harrison4.10 Foster5.03 PalmerI was hoping for Heap @ 5.03 but he was taken @ 4.12, ... Palmer was the 3rd QB off the board and I'm just hoping he's fully recovered and good to go right out of the gate ... I feel that my selection of Holt/Harrison back to back took some managers by surprised and altered the whole dynamic of the draft ... these leagues (FantasySharks tier leagues) are normally RB heavily drafted early ... yet at this point (53 players off the board) the split is pretty even 4QB; 26RB; 19WR; 4TE .... the teams are all well balanced in a most interesting draft.

 

[Native]

Is 3.3 too early for Reggie Bush?

 

[bocksheesh]

I don't think it's a risky option, actually with the RB situation being what it is for a great deal of teams in the league this season I think this is one drafting option that presents an opportunity to get maximum value out of your selections ... if ... and that's the BIGGEST little word in the whole piece ... IF things fall your way ...I'm presently drafting out of the 3 hole in a 12 team, PPR league and here's what I've come up with so far1.03 Portis 2.10 Holt3.03 Harrison4.10 Foster5.03 PalmerI was hoping for Heap @ 5.03 but he was taken @ 4.12, ... Palmer was the 3rd QB off the board and I'm just hoping he's fully recovered and good to go right out of the gate ... I feel that my selection of Holt/Harrison back to back took some managers by surprised and altered the whole dynamic of the draft ... these leagues (FantasySharks tier leagues) are normally RB heavily drafted early ... yet at this point (53 players off the board) the split is pretty even 4QB; 26RB; 19WR; 4TE .... the teams are all well balanced in a most interesting draft.

IF. It is the operative word. I'm drafting at #2 but looking at the identical scenario. Leaning heavily towards taking 2 WRs at the 2/3 turn. Though I'm a bit edgy as to whether a Chambers/Boldin or Chambers/Harrison really merits going at 2.11 and 3.02. The value drafter in me hates that, but when you draft at the turn, it's unavoidable.But, back to IF. The whole scenario is predicated on whether you think a viable RB falls to you at 4.10 or 4.11. If there is a huge run on RBs, you could be seriously high and dry. So, does a Dunn, Foster, or Dillon fall to you in the 4th?If one or more of them do, you're made in the shade. Foster at 4.10 would be great. Then again, I've seen Foster going in the late 3rd round in some drafts. So it's just really hard to know.IF it breaks right for you (and me), it's a great draft. IF it doesn't, you are hosed.

 

[Mapmaker]

I don't think it's a risky option, actually with the RB situation being what it is for a great deal of teams in the league this season I think this is one drafting option that presents an opportunity to get maximum value out of your selections ... if ... and that's the BIGGEST little word in the whole piece ... IF things fall your way ...I'm presently drafting out of the 3 hole in a 12 team, PPR league and here's what I've come up with so far1.03 Portis 2.10 Holt3.03 Harrison4.10 Foster5.03 PalmerI was hoping for Heap @ 5.03 but he was taken @ 4.12, ... Palmer was the 3rd QB off the board and I'm just hoping he's fully recovered and good to go right out of the gate ... I feel that my selection of Holt/Harrison back to back took some managers by surprised and altered the whole dynamic of the draft ... these leagues (FantasySharks tier leagues) are normally RB heavily drafted early ... yet at this point (53 players off the board) the split is pretty even 4QB; 26RB; 19WR; 4TE .... the teams are all well balanced in a most interesting draft.

IF. It is the operative word. I'm drafting at #2 but looking at the identical scenario. Leaning heavily towards taking 2 WRs at the 2/3 turn. Though I'm a bit edgy as to whether a Chambers/Boldin or Chambers/Harrison really merits going at 2.11 and 3.02. The value drafter in me hates that, but when you draft at the turn, it's unavoidable.But, back to IF. The whole scenario is predicated on whether you think a viable RB falls to you at 4.10 or 4.11. If there is a huge run on RBs, you could be seriously high and dry. So, does a Dunn, Foster, or Dillon fall to you in the 4th?If one or more of them do, you're made in the shade. Foster at 4.10 would be great. Then again, I've seen Foster going in the late 3rd round in some drafts. So it's just really hard to know.IF it breaks right for you (and me), it's a great draft. IF it doesn't, you are hosed.

When I landed Foster @ 4.10 I was laffin' or so I thought ... landing Palmer @ 5.03 gives me what should be a very solid QB play as long as he's good to go and I felt I'd lock Williams up @ the 6.10 (pick 70) which fit's his ADP pretty well ... well the drafting gawd's saw things differently as Williams went on a reach @ pick 62 (ADP 74) so that foiled my game plan ... fortunately Fragile Fred was still on the board @ 6.10 and I backed the pick up with G.Jones @ 7.03 (ADP 120) ... so be well prepared to reach a little or reach a lot if your looking to give this one a try .... 1.03 Portis 2.10 Holt3.03 Harrison4.10 Foster5.03 Palmer6.10 Taylor7.03 G.Jones 8.10 T.Glenn 9.03 C.Cooley10.10 P.Rivers11.03 K WarnerFrom here it's fill with Best Player Available and I think I'm good to be very competative ..... Starting Requirements QB, 2RB, 2WR, TE, K, D; 16 man roster; PPR

 

[ImTheScientist]

My stradegy at pick #3 is to pray that 1 and 2 don't take LT and SA .... if they do my next stradegy is to then take Clinton Portis passing on Grandmama

 

[avoiding injuries]

Is 3.3 too early for Reggie Bush?

If your draft was today, I think your league mates may question it. If you don't draft for a few more weeks, I am wondering if he will still be there at 3.03. I just found out I have the 3 spot and am hoping SA falls to me. Looking more like it will be LT. I am grabbing another RB at 2.10 or 3.03(stuck in my ways). I'm going to look at who is left at 2.10 and who I think will make it back to me at 3.03. There are only a few WR's I take over Gates, so he is in my sights as well. If I don't go RB at 2.10, I'm most likely looking at KJ, C Taylor or Bush. I have the feeling I will be reaching on my 3.03 pick and almost wish I was drafting in the middle.

 

[dreadlocks]

Is 3.3 too early for Reggie Bush?

No. I take Bush in the 3rd and Javon Walker in the 4th.

 

[avoiding injuries]

Going over some mocks to get an idea of situations I will be looking at. Using Antsports ADP... I'm assuming LT at 1.3. If R Bush and C Taylor are available in the 2nd and 3rd, I may be going RB, RB, RB. Feel free to insert other Rb's that you are high on for rb-rb-rb theory, I just happen to be on the Bush, Taylor band wagon.

On my next turn I should be looking at 2 of A Johnson, J Walker, D Driver, J Horn and S Moss. Could grab 1 WR and snag a QB like Brady or Hass, or a TE like Shockey or Heap.

Witten, Crumpler or McMichael should be around at the next turn and possibly Bulger, Culpepper, Delhomme and Bledsoe. Looking more like Wr, Wr at the rd 4-5 turn.

Could end up something like...

LT

Bush

C Taylor

(2 of)A Johnson/J Walker/D Driver/S Moss/J Horn

Bulger/Culpepper/Delhomme

McMichael/Witten/Crumpler

I actually like that possibility through 7 rounds. Just throwing stuff out there to see what sticks. Thankfully I have another two weeks before I'm put to the test.

 

[mr blond]

Going over some mocks to get an idea of situations I will be looking at. Using Antsports ADP... I'm assuming LT at 1.3. If R Bush and C Taylor are available in the 2nd and 3rd, I may be going RB, RB, RB. Feel free to insert other Rb's that you are high on for rb-rb-rb theory, I just happen to be on the Bush, Taylor band wagon.On my next turn I should be looking at 2 of A Johnson, J Walker, D Driver, J Horn and S Moss. Could grab 1 WR and snag a QB like Brady or Hass, or a TE like Shockey or Heap. Witten, Crumpler or McMichael should be around at the next turn and possibly Bulger, Culpepper, Delhomme and Bledsoe. Looking more like Wr, Wr at the rd 4-5 turn. Could end up something like...LT BushC Taylor(2 of)A Johnson/J Walker/D Driver/S Moss/J HornBulger/Culpepper/DelhommeMcMichael/Witten/CrumplerI actually like that possibility through 7 rounds. Just throwing stuff out there to see what sticks. Thankfully I have another two weeks before I'm put to the test.

I'm not a huge fan of Bush that early, but assuming a RB/RB/RB draft through 3 rounds, you should pass on QB in the 6th and go for another WR. Maybe Derrick Mason. I think you could wait until round 8 for the QB. Read the QBBC article in the subscriber section if you haven't already.

 

[mr blond]

The more mocks I do, the more difficult it is for me to sort through the available players at 4/5. I think these may be the key rounds for teams not selecting 2 RB in rounds 1-3.

T. Jones, Foster, Taylor, Dillon, T. Bell, McCallister, Benson and a few others are going at about this time and all have question marks.

For those looking to to not take 2 RB's in the first 3 rounds, who are you targeting at 4/5 and why?

 

[avoiding injuries]

The more mocks I do, the more difficult it is for me to sort through the available players at 4/5. I think these may be the key rounds for teams not selecting 2 RB in rounds 1-3. T. Jones, Foster, Taylor, Dillon, T. Bell, McCallister, Benson and a few others are going at about this time and all have question marks. For those looking to to not take 2 RB's in the first 3 rounds, who are you targeting at 4/5 and why?

I have to ask. If you're running into trouble, why not take another RB at the 2-3 spot? I like the WR's available in 4-5 much more then the RB's.

 

[avoiding injuries]

Ok, just found out I'm drafting 3rd in my second league as well. This thread just got a lot more interesting for me. What does the day crowd have to say?

 

[wannabee]

Ok, just found out I'm drafting 3rd in my second league as well. This thread just got a lot more interesting for me. What does the day crowd have to say?

I, too, would like to see some of the results for those already drafted teams and the strategies utilized.

 

[brednbuddah]

with respect to the 4/5 turn from the 3 spot, if things turned out where I would need to wait until 4/5 to grab an RB2, I wouldn't have any problems teaming Gates with say, SA and Marvin. I don't suppose anyone would have a problem with that kind of start.

 

[wannabee]

with respect to the 4/5 turn from the 3 spot, if things turned out where I would need to wait until 4/5 to grab an RB2, I wouldn't have any problems teaming Gates with say, SA and Marvin. I don't suppose anyone would have a problem with that kind of start.

I agree. That would be a great start.

 

[avoiding injuries]

with respect to the 4/5 turn from the 3 spot, if things turned out where I would need to wait until 4/5 to grab an RB2, I wouldn't have any problems teaming Gates with say, SA and Marvin. I don't suppose anyone would have a problem with that kind of start.

I have SA ranked #1, LT #2 and LJ #3. I'm not going to mind one way or another but if SA falls to 3, that would be ideal.As for the 4/5 turn, I think you have a better chance getting more comparable points from a WR then you do from a RB that can be had at the 2/3. I am playing with RB-RB-Gates, but I really think it is necassary for a RB to be taken at either 2.10 or 3.3.

 

[brednbuddah]

with respect to the 4/5 turn from the 3 spot, if things turned out where I would need to wait until 4/5 to grab an RB2, I wouldn't have any problems teaming Gates with say, SA and Marvin. I don't suppose anyone would have a problem with that kind of start.

I have SA ranked #1, LT #2 and LJ #3. I'm not going to mind one way or another but if SA falls to 3, that would be ideal.As for the 4/5 turn, I think you have a better chance getting more comparable points from a WR then you do from a RB that can be had at the 2/3. I am playing with RB-RB-Gates, but I really think it is necassary for a RB to be taken at either 2.10 or 3.3.

I see your point, but I think it's wise to leave yourself open to the flow of the draft rather than lock yourself into having to take a particular position in a particular round.For example, by virtue of neccessity, are you saying you'd rather have LT/JJ/Gates/Mason than LT/Moss/Gates/TJ? I'm not saying either one is better or worse. I just don't think I'd lock myself in anywhere in the draft (well, except maybe 1.03 )

 

[oukurt]

Is Wayne officially in Marvins class? Is he now considered a top tier WR? I personally wouldnt include him in the top-tier of WR's.

He will be WR1 soon. This year I don't think so, but he is one helluva WR2.

 

[avoiding injuries]

I think there will be enough RB's around at 2/3 that I WILL take one. I completely agree about leaving your options open, but if the rb's I like at 2.10 are gone I will most likely draft WR and take RB with 3.3 pushing Gates out of the equation.

My rankings for 2.10/3.3...

Bush

Davis(doubt it)

McGahee(doubt it)

Fitz

R Moss

Harrison

C Taylor

K Jones

Gates

Boldin

Wayne

J Jones

J Lewis

 

[brednbuddah]

how do you justify the separation between Jones/Taylor and Jones/Lewis? I see the 4 of them pretty much in the same boat. none of them gives me the "warm fuzzy" at RB2. again, maybe Lewis.

I would rank Boldin then Gates under Harrison.

 

[avoiding injuries]

I guess that's where my personal preference comes into play. I'm buying into the hype of the Min O-line and FB giving Taylor a situation so succeed in. Even though I had KJ last year, I'm not giving up. Mooch screwed the pooch last year with him and I expect to see this year what I thought I was going to see last year.

JJ just isn't doing it for me. Can't really explain it, but I would rather he be on someone else's roster then my own. Lewis is interesting. I live in Baltimore, but don't root for the Ravens. He's a good back, but Anderson is more then capable. I may bump him up before my draft. During last years off season he had surgery and did his rehab in prison. That was not a good situation for him and he could bounce back nicely this year.

To answer your question though, when it comes to drafting, I use my own intuition and try to plan for different scenarios I will see on draft day. I just ranked who I would rather have on my team and will fill the holes later in the draft.

 

[brednbuddah]

I guess that's where my personal preference comes into play. I'm buying into the hype of the Min O-line and FB giving Taylor a situation so succeed in. Even though I had KJ last year, I'm not giving up. Mooch screwed the pooch last year with him and I expect to see this year what I thought I was going to see last year. JJ just isn't doing it for me. Can't really explain it, but I would rather he be on someone else's roster then my own. Lewis is interesting. I live in Baltimore, but don't root for the Ravens. He's a good back, but Anderson is more then capable. I may bump him up before my draft. During last years off season he had surgery and did his rehab in prison. That was not a good situation for him and he could bounce back nicely this year.To answer your question though, when it comes to drafting, I use my own intuition and try to plan for different scenarios I will see on draft day. I just ranked who I would rather have on my team and will fill the holes later in the draft.

that's cool. I was just wondering what I was missing in that group of RBs.I don't trust KJ.JJ would be awesome if he can stay on the field.Chester Taylor is all hype (Bush too).Lewis is proven and I'll take the proven guy every time.

 

[mhrutkowski]

bump

 

[avoiding injuries]

bump

What are your thoughts/idea's?I don't know what else I can add without hearing some different strategies.

 

[OneEastRiver]

I'm looking hard at going RB-RB-RB-WR-WR-WR in the first 6 rounds. Of course that can change according to what other teams in my league do on draft day. It is important to note that my league starts 2 RBs, 3 WRs and 1 flex (wr/rb), so having 3 quality backs to start is important. The following is a rough estimation of how im hoping to draft...

Round 1: Either SA/LJ/LT depending on who falls to 3

Round 2: Hope for McGahee, but also possibly take Bush, Westbrook or another rb that falls

Round 3: Look for J. Lewis here, if gone then possibly go with Chester Taylor, KJ, or Wille Parker

Now it's time to build depth at WR...

Round 4: Love Javon Walker this year (current ADP is 4.11), but hope S. Moss or Driver fall a bit here

Round 5: Derrick Mason (ADP of 5.02), or Housh or Branch if Mason gone

Round 6: Pray for Lee Evans to fall to me here (ADP is 6.05)...he's a #1 WR in a questionable and uncertain bills offense, but he gets a ton of looks from Losman, and their chemistry will continue to get better. Think Evans could be fantastic value in the 6th round. If Evans is gone, look for Galloway, Rod Smith. If no WR looks particularly good here, I go TE instead...and get D. Bennett, Mohammed later on.

The more and more I think about it, the stronger I feel about not wanting to wait on RBs for the 4/5 turn. I don't want to have to spend 2 fairly early picks just to lock up a backfield (Rhodes/Addai). Also, those guys are unproven and I don't see huge numbers for either one. I'm also scared of the uncertainty with Benson/Jones, Den backfield, Dillon/Faulk/Maroney, Foster's injuries, and so on. I'd rather have the RB position locked up early with clear #1 starters, and then later look to build a group of consistent, veteran WRs (mason, walker, branch) along with some high upside guys (Lee Evans, Matt Jones).

If Javon, Evans, Mason, can each catch at least 80 balls and finish in the top 20 of WRs (i don't think this is so far fetched) -- then I have effectivly built a team of solid WRs that should keep up with other teams, while having a superior backfield (again, start 3 RBs).

 

[mhrutkowski]

I'm looking hard at going RB-RB-RB-WR-WR-WR in the first 6 rounds. Of course that can change according to what other teams in my league do on draft day. It is important to note that my league starts 2 RBs, 3 WRs and 1 flex (wr/rb), so having 3 quality backs to start is important. The following is a rough estimation of how im hoping to draft...Round 1: Either SA/LJ/LT depending on who falls to 3Round 2: Hope for McGahee, but also possibly take Bush, Westbrook or another rb that fallsRound 3: Look for J. Lewis here, if gone then possibly go with Chester Taylor, KJ, or Wille ParkerNow it's time to build depth at WR...Round 4: Love Javon Walker this year (current ADP is 4.11), but hope S. Moss or Driver fall a bit hereRound 5: Derrick Mason (ADP of 5.02), or Housh or Branch if Mason goneRound 6: Pray for Lee Evans to fall to me here (ADP is 6.05)...he's a #1 WR in a questionable and uncertain bills offense, but he gets a ton of looks from Losman, and their chemistry will continue to get better. Think Evans could be fantastic value in the 6th round. If Evans is gone, look for Galloway, Rod Smith. If no WR looks particularly good here, I go TE instead...and get D. Bennett, Mohammed later on.The more and more I think about it, the stronger I feel about not wanting to wait on RBs for the 4/5 turn. I don't want to have to spend 2 fairly early picks just to lock up a backfield (Rhodes/Addai). Also, those guys are unproven and I don't see huge numbers for either one. I'm also scared of the uncertainty with Benson/Jones, Den backfield, Dillon/Faulk/Maroney, Foster's injuries, and so on. I'd rather have the RB position locked up early with clear #1 starters, and then later look to build a group of consistent, veteran WRs (mason, walker, branch) along with some high upside guys (Lee Evans, Matt Jones).If Javon, Evans, Mason, can each catch at least 80 balls and finish in the top 20 of WRs (i don't think this is so far fetched) -- then I have effectivly built a team of solid WRs that should keep up with other teams, while having a superior backfield (again, start 3 RBs).

I agreeI have a similar league set up as you with the RB/WR flex. I am picking 2nd. If I could only start 2 RBs, I'd look at top WRs like Fitzgerald or Harrison at 3.2 but a 3rd RB like Bush, Droughns, Parker, Taylor is probably more valuableand yes, I see lots of value with WRs in rounds 4-6 (Walker, Driver, etc.)

 

[Post Corner]

My strategy is this--- hope LT2 falls to me like he should. I would take LT2 #1.

 

[avoiding injuries]

Looking like Bush won't be there at 2.10 and I/we may have to settle for Parker, JJ, KJ, Chester, Jamal, Reuben. If that is the case, Gates or tier 2 WR may have to be chosen in the 3rd. Taking two of these backs in the 2nd and 3rd lets the competition catch up in talent they were lacking after we got one of the BIG 3. Selecting a top WR keeps us ahead of the curve. Thoughts?

BTW, LT2 is my #1 as well. By the sound of it, SA will be falling to me.

 

[OneEastRiver]

Looking like Bush won't be there at 2.10 and I/we may have to settle for Parker, JJ, KJ, Chester, Jamal, Reuben. If that is the case, Gates or tier 2 WR may have to be chosen in the 3rd. Taking two of these backs in the 2nd and 3rd lets the competition catch up in talent they were lacking after we got one of the BIG 3. Selecting a top WR keeps us ahead of the curve. Thoughts?BTW, LT2 is my #1 as well. By the sound of it, SA will be falling to me.

Agreed. I have to get the exact RBs I want in the 2nd or 3rd, or else I'm likely to go WR in either the 2nd or 3rd. Usually a RB or 2 slips through the cracks if enough guys grab WRs at the beginning of the 2nd.