Drafting for value vs. drafting the players you want (1 Viewer)

[Darryl Talley]

Is it a mistake to draft for value rather than the players you want?

Looking at scoring for my league, some of the players I wanted (Marshall, Ridley, T.Smith) are right up there in their position. Instead I ended up drafting for value and was stuck with players like Fitz, Nicks, S Jax, etc. I think next time I will just take a player I WANT like Marshall or J. Jones over someone who sounds better like Fitz.

Does it go both ways when drafting for value?

 

[Not Sleeping]

Is it a mistake to draft for value rather than the players you want?Looking at scoring for my league, some of the players I wanted (Marshall, Ridley, T.Smith) are right up there in their position. Instead I ended up drafting for value and was stuck with players like Fitz, Nicks, S Jax, etc. I think next time I will just take a player I WANT like Marshall or J. Jones over someone who sounds better like Fitz. Does it go both ways when drafting for value?

It's a long season, so my advice is to always go with the players that you're excited to have on your team and will enjoy watching throughout the year. Of course, on draft day that's what I thought I was getting with McFadden and Mathews...3 wins and 7 losses later I never want to see them again.

 

[silentcoach]

Do both. The guys you want should be "value" if you consider them better than the counterparts the mainstream has higher. I mentioned this in the summer, never be afraid to "reach" for the guy you want, especially if he will not make it back to you (redraft).

 

[RJS113]

I typically draft players where I value them, regardless of where they are ranked by other people. In 12 team leagues it's never a sure thing that a player will make it back to your next pick, so I'm all about getting the players I want while I can.

A perfect example is after taking Arian Foster in the first this year, I took Doug Martin at 2.11 and Trent Richardson at 3.2. Everyone thought I reached for the rookies (especially Martin) but they were my highest ranked backs on the board, and neither would have made it to my 4th pick.

But I also consider what value will be in later rounds when choosing between different positions. For example, while I had Brandon Marshall ranked higher than Richardson, I loved the WR values that typically could be had in rounds 4-6, and didn't like any of the RBs going in those rounds. So I decided to start my draft with 3 stud backs so I can get better value at WR, TE, and QB in rounds 4 and later.

 

[BobbyLayne]

I typically draft players where I value them, regardless of where they are ranked by other people. In 12 team leagues it's never a sure thing that a player will make it back to your next pick, so I'm all about getting the players I want while I can.

A perfect example is after taking Arian Foster in the first this year, I took Doug Martin at 2.11 and Trent Richardson at 3.2. Everyone thought I reached for the rookies (especially Martin) but they were my highest ranked backs on the board, and neither would have made it to my 4th pick.

But I also consider what value will be in later rounds when choosing between different positions. For example, while I had Brandon Marshall ranked higher than Richardson, I loved the WR values that typically could be had in rounds 4-6, and didn't like any of the RBs going in those rounds. So I decided to start my draft with 3 stud backs so I can get better value at WR, TE, and QB in rounds 4 and later.

I agree with this, the caveat being my rankings take into account that I know my long time (16 years) owners pretty well. It's all well and good to say wait on a QB and draft RBs early, but I know the stud QBs and WRs will go early. While that has historically left me with a strong stable of RBs, it's a losing strategy to just keep drafting VBD RBs when we only start 2 (no flex). And in years past I've found the 5th-6th round QBs available left me at a decided disadvantage.This year I took Rodgers at 1.05 after the three Tier 1 RBs and Megatron. Everybody I talked to leading up to the draft told me I have to take the best RB there - McFadden, Chris Johnson, or Charles. Way too early for a QB, wait for it. I ignored that advice.

At 2.08 Adrian was there - logically, he might still be there in the third or fourth, but with a Vikings homer in my league, I didn't want to take the chance - and I liked Peterson's chances of being himself more than putting my trust in Matthews or Murray to be a RB1. I valued AP a lot higher than most experts.

I'm a firm believer in doing your own projections. Targets, rushing attempts, and yardage determined from past years of the individual or the team. TDs are variable. Sanity check against major sites, but if you really believe in a guy, reach for him a round earlier than his ADP to make sure you get him.

 

[Quibbler]

I typically draft players where I value them, regardless of where they are ranked by other people. In 12 team leagues it's never a sure thing that a player will make it back to your next pick, so I'm all about getting the players I want while I can. A perfect example is after taking Arian Foster in the first this year, I took Doug Martin at 2.11 and Trent Richardson at 3.2. Everyone thought I reached for the rookies (especially Martin) but they were my highest ranked backs on the board, and neither would have made it to my 4th pick. But I also consider what value will be in later rounds when choosing between different positions. For example, while I had Brandon Marshall ranked higher than Richardson, I loved the WR values that typically could be had in rounds 4-6, and didn't like any of the RBs going in those rounds. So I decided to start my draft with 3 stud backs so I can get better value at WR, TE, and QB in rounds 4 and later.

I wouldn't make such a stark distinction as the OP does between players you want and value. If I want a guy, it's because I think he's going to do well. If I think WR #1 is going to outperform WR #2, I'll take him regardless of the consensus rankings.Value vs. who you want only applies in deciding which positions to draft, IMO. Like RJS113, I look at who I think will be available later, etc. to help me pick. (For example, in a league where we start 2RBs and 3WRs, and I already had Rice, I took Marshall and Roddy in the 2nd and 3rd, partly because I like them, but also because I thought 2 elite WRs would give me a better overall roster than a QB or another RB at that point).