Drafting in leagues that draft QBs way too early (1 Viewer)

[Scoresman]

I'm in a local league, and after looking at some league history, one thing that stands out to me is how early they take QBs. On average, they take QBs a full round or more earlier than ADP. To make matters worse, this is a standard 4 pt/TD league.

Has anyone ever dealt with this? On the surface, it sounds great. While everyone is getting little to no value with their early QB picks, I'm happy to keep scooping up WRs and RBs but at some point, you have to pull the trigger on a QB earlier than you would as well or else you will miss out. People were drafting guys like Cousins and Rodgers last year to back up Mahomes and Allen. I ended up with Tannehill because I kept thinking I'd wait until guys I thought I would get ended up on someone's team as a backup.

I think there was an article from years ago called Drafting with Guppies that dealt with this. I dont know if it's better to just wait like I did last year or to get someone better but reaching a but for it.

 

[JohnnyU]

Take advantage of these idiots, not join their idiocy.

 

[need2know]

Yeah don't sweat it. A qb will emerge out of nowhere and besides the top guys there is hardly much of a Difference.

Geno was top 5 last year. Just think about that. Guy wasn't even drafted in a bunch of leagues

 

[Scoresman]

Take advantage of these idiots, not join their idiocy.

So you'd be ok possibly starting someone from the Love/Pickett/Carr tier? That's what I'm not sure about. Taking any QB better than this requires reaching at some point.

 

[JohnnyU]

Take advantage of these idiots, not join their idiocy.

So you'd be ok possibly starting someone from the Love/Pickett/Carr tier? That's what I'm not sure about. Taking any QB better than this requires reaching at some point.

I like Love as an option.

 

[Hartliner]

I mean ideally, you would have liked to start the run on QB right before all the QBs were taken. I think you might want to remember this tendency for next year and weigh out if it is worth the risk. The safer bet is to just draft the best value but there are these small things you can account for to make you a better drafter. Always get better.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I'm in a local league, and after looking at some league history, one thing that stands out to me is how early they take QBs. On average, they take QBs a full round or more earlier than ADP. To make matters worse, this is a standard 4 pt/TD league.

Has anyone ever dealt with this? On the surface, it sounds great. While everyone is getting little to no value with their early QB picks, I'm happy to keep scooping up WRs and RBs but at some point, you have to pull the trigger on a QB earlier than you would as well or else you will miss out. People were drafting guys like Cousins and Rodgers last year to back up Mahomes and Allen. I ended up with Tannehill because I kept thinking I'd wait until guys I thought I would get ended up on someone's team as a backup.

I think there was an article from years ago called Drafting with Guppies that dealt with this. I dont know if it's better to just wait like I did last year or to get someone better but reaching a but for it.

Just happened in my local 10-team league. 8 QB off the board by mid-4th. In a start 1 QB format.

I took Goff in the 12th. I have the best WR corps in the league & a top 3 TE.

When they zig, you zag.

 

[a_troll00]

Cousins isn't nearly as valued as he was last year. I'd imagine Cousins should be available in the 8th or 9th round.

Tua, Goff, Carr and Rodgers should all be solid as well. If you're really digging deep, I find Howell to be quite intriguing.

 

[Proteus]

I’d target Fields, and if he goes too early to stomach I’d target a Richardson/Dimes duo. If that’s too early I’d target a Goff/Geno duo. And for sure I’d rather hold my nose and get at least one of the above instead of completely gutter balling with Tannehil.

 

[Gally]

I think it's a combo. You let them overdraft but when the second QB's start coming off the board you jump in to get your one guy. Essentially monitor your QB tiers and make sure you get one in the last tier you are willing to live with. You may have to take that one player a bit earlier than normal but you will still gain perceived value with your other picks.

It's ok to zig when they zag but you also have to watch the road and you may need to zag as well to stay where you want to be.

 

[VikingFrog]

I think it's a combo. You let them overdraft but when the second QB's start coming off the board you jump in to get your one guy. Essentially monitor your QB tiers and make sure you get one in the last tier you are willing to live with. You may have to take that one player a bit earlier than normal but you will still gain perceived value with your other picks.

It's ok to zig when they zag but you also have to watch the road and you may need to zag as well to stay where you want to be.

I did exactly this with Herbert knowing my league drafts QBs early and not wanting to play the wire all season like I have the last few years.

 

[Soulfly3]

sounds to me like you draft with sharks.

 

[Scoresman]

I think it's a combo. You let them overdraft but when the second QB's start coming off the board you jump in to get your one guy. Essentially monitor your QB tiers and make sure you get one in the last tier you are willing to live with. You may have to take that one player a bit earlier than normal but you will still gain perceived value with your other picks.

It's ok to zig when they zag but you also have to watch the road and you may need to zag as well to stay where you want to be.

I did exactly this with Herbert knowing my league drafts QBs early and not wanting to play the wire all season like I have the last few years.

See I'd love to get a guy like Herbert. I have him as my QB5. The last two years, the QB5s have gone at pick 32 and 33. This year Herbert's ADP is 45. That's a full round early and in the midst of great RB/WR options. This drafting of QBs a full round early continues until about QB20.

Another tidbit is that the last two champions have both had QBs in the QB12-24 range.

I may just take a shot and wait for the Love/Pickett/Howell tier. Draft two of them and pray. This is compounded by the fact that I have the 6th pick and am almost positive I will be taking Kelce, so I will need those early-mid rounds to bolster RB/WR.

 

[Wrigley]

I picked up Geno/Cousins at 9/10

You can wait longer

 

[JohnnyU]

I picked up Geno/Cousins at 9/10

You can wait longer

That's kind of like marrying an ugly woman who is a great cook, has a great job, and a wonderful mother.

 

[Wrigley]

I picked up Geno/Cousins at 9/10

You can wait longer

That's kind of like marrying an ugly woman who is a great cook, has a great job, and a wonderful mother.

She may not be much to look at, but man can she throw the rock.

 

[zed2283]

Sounds to me like the guppies are flipping the shark onto his back.

 

[Scoresman]

Sounds to me like the guppies are flipping the shark onto his back.

I don't claim to be a shark/guppy/whatever. Just wondering what people do in these situations.

 

[Gottabesweet]

It’s a good question. I suspect many casual leagues, mine included is like this.

I’m in a 12 team league with 6 per TD and 40+ yard TD bonus so I’d be ok taking Hurts 3.1 but doubt he’ll be there so I’ll probably wait.

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

I think the main question is what will be available on the waiver wire. Do all the teams draft 2 QBs? Are people super active on the wire? If this year's Geno Smith emerges, do you have a good shot at getting him?

That's how I'd think about it. Try to get a solid if unspectacular QB1 before guys start taking their backups, and then take a late-round flier on someone like Howell or Love (you could also try to get Richardson as your QB1 and the safe guy later, although from the way you describe your league I suspect Richardson is probably going early as well). And then play the WW/streaming game aggressively until you feel like you have a set-it-and-forget-it starter

 

[-jb-]

I have a league that does this, but QB scoring is juiced so it makes up for part of the hysteria. After looking through past drafts, I also determined that QBs go one round earlier than ADP, with the exception of rounds 1-2 (YMMV). In the past, I've taken an ADP list, then moved everyone up accordingly. Now I just tend to eyeball it. One thing to keep in mind that most folks tend to gloss over on this...it really doesn't have that much of an effect. If we look at this year's ADP as an example, you have:

Round 1 - no effect, at least for what I've experienced.
Round 2 - same as above

These are the the rounds where players slipping a few spots has a material difference.

Round 3 - Lamar

OK, so we move Lamar into the second round, too. That's one a one-pick advantage across all teams, starting late round 2.

Round 4 - Burrow, Herbert, Fields

Move them to round 3, for a three-pick advantage across all teams

Round 5 - Lawrence

Move him to round 4, for a one-pick advantage.



At this point, ADP doesn't show another QB being drafted until pick 83. By then, it no longer matters. So, with the assumption that you're not seeing Mahomes, Hurts and Allen being drafted in round one (where it would be a considerable difference), we're essentially talking about less than a half round shift in players. Does a half round deviation even affect you individually that much? I don't think so.

My philosophy is pretty consistent in this league - get mid QB1 type guy In round 4 or 5 (Herbert, Fields). If I miss, punt and take a safe low end QB1 paired with a high upside type.

Yes, you can zig while others zag, but the end effect, in theory, is that you got a player or two in the mid rounds a few spots earlier...which could/would/should happen anyway.

If your league DOES see the likes of Mahomes/Hurts/Allen go in round one......well, congrats on your rad team.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I think it's a combo. You let them overdraft but when the second QB's start coming off the board you jump in to get your one guy. Essentially monitor your QB tiers and make sure you get one in the last tier you are willing to live with. You may have to take that one player a bit earlier than normal but you will still gain perceived value with your other picks.

It's ok to zig when they zag but you also have to watch the road and you may need to zag as well to stay where you want to be.

Exactly how I did it. Once 1 team took a 2nd QB, I grabbed Goff.

I've been at the point where I was thinking "I'm the only one left who needs a QB, I can wait 3-4 more rounds!" and the run on backup QBs hits - that was a rough, rough season.

Also, IMO this situation is highly league-scoring dependent, as with many FF decisions. If your league has bonuses at 300 yards, for example, LJax & Fields are still good (great, potentially), but those bonuses can elevate non-rushing QBs to the point that it makes sense to wait for a perceived lesser option, as the gap is closed a bit.

 

[efactor]

In my 14 teamer, drafting 3rd, my plan was to take Herbert or Burrow at 4.12. Both gone as was Lawrence. Mostly the same group of guys for the last 10 years and typically getting one of these guys in round 5 or even 6 is common, but obviously they took a different approach this year. Mahomes and Allen went in 2nd. Hurts, Lamar, Burrow and Fields went in the 3rd and Lawrence and Herbert in the early 4th. Ended up with Cousins which I have as QB 9 and am fine with that, but just interesting that in a league that usually isn't QB heavy early, that there was such a drastic change this year.

We don't pick for draft slots until right before the draft and when I got 3, I was thinking Hurts or Allen in the 3rd if available. Hurts was there but so was Olave which I didn't expect and couldn't pass him up as I am in the group that sees him having a huge season. That's the advantage of teams going QB heavy early. Good players fall

 

[VikingFrog]

I picked up Geno/Cousins at 9/10

You can wait longer

That's kind of like marrying an ugly woman who is a great cook, has a great job, and a wonderful mother.

If you wanna be happy for the rest of your life… never make a pretty woman your wife.

 

[JohnnyU]

I picked up Geno/Cousins at 9/10

You can wait longer

That's kind of like marrying an ugly woman who is a great cook, has a great job, and a wonderful mother.

If you wanna be happy for the rest of your life… never make a pretty woman your wife.

I'm blind, but they tell me my wife is pretty......................................jk. There is nothing wrong with marrying a pretty woman as long as that isn't her only good attribute. Sorry, but I would never marry an ugly woman. I'll just wing it by myself. Unless she's willing to wear a Fauci mask and sunglasses full-time.

 

[pollardsvision]

I picked up Geno/Cousins at 9/10

You can wait longer

Hoping to get Howell cheap as my QB1 (but in a league where that may not happen).

Toying with the idea of rolling into the season starting Baker Mayfield. He is stepping into an offense with weapons that likes to throw the ball 700 times, and saw Jameis Winston throw for 5000/30 (a long time ago, sure, but the same year Lamar won an MVP).

It could be that it was the 50 year old QB holding them back last year.

 

[Anarchy99]

Call me crazy, but I generally let everyone else grab QBs and then take several after everyone else has already picked theirs. All that matters is how many points you score in a week, not the premium name attached to those points. Many times, one of those guys would turn in a banner season, so I would end up having a regular fantasy starter if I wanted to play him. I have no qualms about playing match ups week to week. I made a living off of playing QBs facing bottom 5 passing defenses. Heck, I've won leagues streaming QBs off the wire for more than half a season when all my QBs got hurt.

 

[Loipz]

I picked up Geno/Cousins at 9/10

You can wait longer

Hoping to get Howell cheap as my QB1 (but in a league where that may not happen).

Toying with the idea of rolling into the season starting Baker Mayfield. He is stepping into an offense with weapons that likes to throw the ball 700 times, and saw Jameis Winston throw for 5000/30 (a long time ago, sure, but the same year Lamar won an MVP).

It could be that it was the 50 year old QB holding them back last year.

Don’t do that to yourself

 

[Runkle]

My league has a bunch of owners that value QB way too high. For example, one guy used a 2nd round equivalent pick on Deshaun Watson. I just wait and pick up position players... until the QB run gets to where I need to get a guy, then I go earlier than normal-ADP says I should, but, where I need to go based on my league and who won't be there with my next pick.

The whole set of Allen/Mahomes/Hurts/Burrow/Lawrence/Lamar/Hebert/Fields were off the board before I got my first pick. I just waited until I heard the "canary in the coal mine" of the next tier... this year, that was Tua. Once he was drafted, then I knew it was time to pounce on QB with my next pick and get the best available, even though it was above the ADP... couldn't let the tier go through another round before grabbing a guy.

Know your league, know your tiers, know how many guys who need QBs are between your next two picks, and wait until the signal to make a play.

 

[Wigglytuff's Gruff]

The issue in one of my leagues is that the QB run starts super early, and then the backup run (I dunno why they do it, happens every year) starts earlier than I'd take my first QB.

I've ended up with Sam Howell as my QB and options on the waivers are basically the rookies and Kenny Pickett.

 

[JAA]

I'm in a local league, and after looking at some league history, one thing that stands out to me is how early they take QBs. On average, they take QBs a full round or more earlier than ADP. To make matters worse, this is a standard 4 pt/TD league.

Has anyone ever dealt with this? On the surface, it sounds great. While everyone is getting little to no value with their early QB picks, I'm happy to keep scooping up WRs and RBs but at some point, you have to pull the trigger on a QB earlier than you would as well or else you will miss out. People were drafting guys like Cousins and Rodgers last year to back up Mahomes and Allen. I ended up with Tannehill because I kept thinking I'd wait until guys I thought I would get ended up on someone's team as a backup.

I think there was an article from years ago called Drafting with Guppies that dealt with this. I dont know if it's better to just wait like I did last year or to get someone better but reaching a but for it.

Superflex for , so QBs go very quickly. Just like always, I feel the volatility and matchups for QBs vary game to game. I like RBs. I feel that in most years, always lots of QB value later in the draft.

My first 3 pics:

1 / 2	Christian McCaffrey RB | SF	17 sec	289.14	#2 RB
2 / 23	Derrick Henry RB | TEN	13 sec	232.71	#7 RB
3 / 26	Josh Jacobs RB | LV	20 sec	241.61	#6 RB

QBs:

6 / 71	Russell Wilson QB | DEN	21 sec	238.52	#17 QB
7 / 74	Matthew Stafford QB | LAR	9 sec	169.27	#31 QB

 

[LionOfGosforth]

I'm in a local league, and after looking at some league history, one thing that stands out to me is how early they take QBs. On average, they take QBs a full round or more earlier than ADP. To make matters worse, this is a standard 4 pt/TD league.

Has anyone ever dealt with this? On the surface, it sounds great. While everyone is getting little to no value with their early QB picks, I'm happy to keep scooping up WRs and RBs but at some point, you have to pull the trigger on a QB earlier than you would as well or else you will miss out. People were drafting guys like Cousins and Rodgers last year to back up Mahomes and Allen. I ended up with Tannehill because I kept thinking I'd wait until guys I thought I would get ended up on someone's team as a backup.

I think there was an article from years ago called Drafting with Guppies that dealt with this. I dont know if it's better to just wait like I did last year or to get someone better but reaching a but for it.

Sounds exactly like my local. Still recall 20 or so years ago, preparing to draft Trent Green in the mid 6th and the guy picking before me took him. As his second QB. Fast forward to this year, and Mahomes went first overall. I got Lamar in the 4th and counted myself lucky too. Always know your league and their tendencies if possible. You either wait forever in these scenarios and miss out or you find a spot to jump on the position that you're comfortable with.

 

[zed2283]

Sounds to me like the guppies are flipping the shark onto his back.

I don't claim to be a shark/guppy/whatever. Just wondering what people do in these situations.

I thought this was the Shark Pool?

Sorry, just giving you a hard time. In any draft, you have to be flexible. If you know your league does this, then alter your plan a bit. Don't get hung up on what round the QBs go, just jump in when you need to grab one after everyone else (VBD and all that).

 

[Manster]

In pretty standard leagues I get waiting, but I also prefer to have a stud QB, and will reach a bit. My draft goal in these kinds of leagues is get a stud at each position if possible.....go from there. In my experience, that has worked better than waiting on QB, and being stuck with say Pickett, and Love or something similar.....no thanks.