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Drafting QBs late this year - who are your top targets? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter rickyg
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Hawkeye21
Footballguy
I don't like Winston and I don't really know how good he is as a real QB but he sure seems like a fine fit for fantasy football. (That was a lot of "f" words in a row)
Peyton Marino
Footballguy
so comically wrong in every way
whiskey7
Footballguy
Some outstanding value very late at the QB position, IMO. Even more than usual. Not in order of pref but guys I would be fine with as they are all generally avail 10th rd or later in 12 team leagues...
Stafford
Romo
Dalton
Cousins
Tannehill
I can likely get one (or more) of these after everyone else has their starter (maybe even a few backups are taken) and not yield that much ppg-wise. If I want to live dangerously, Fitzmagic will likely be avail very late. Tougher sched but still has Marshall, Decker, and now Forte to throw to. Hell, I certainly wouldn't want him as my starter, but Cutler is going in the 14th round? IF Alshon and White are healthy, could be a very nice value there if you don't get penalized for turnovers and mopey Jay faces.
Stafford
Romo
Dalton
Cousins
Tannehill
I can likely get one (or more) of these after everyone else has their starter (maybe even a few backups are taken) and not yield that much ppg-wise. If I want to live dangerously, Fitzmagic will likely be avail very late. Tougher sched but still has Marshall, Decker, and now Forte to throw to. Hell, I certainly wouldn't want him as my starter, but Cutler is going in the 14th round? IF Alshon and White are healthy, could be a very nice value there if you don't get penalized for turnovers and mopey Jay faces.
KellysHeroes
Footballguy
I like Brady in the 8th or later paired with a QBBC
I bet big on Tannehill last year and owning him was not fun. I don't regard him as anything more than a flier this year, but I could definitely see him rebounding. Remember, the book on him going into last year was that he had improved every year in the league, but then 2015 turned into a total train wreck for the Dolphins (though to be fair, one of the main reasons it turned into such a train wreck was his inconsistent play). With a little more stability, potentially better weapons (if Parker emerges) and a QB whisperer as his coach, I could see him getting back on track.
Manster
Footballguy
You may be right.....I just don't get a good feeling watching him......I know he's sposed to study a ton and all that, but he just doesnt look comfortable.....he will get plenty of opportunity to prove himself, given his draft status, but I feel like he's gonna flop.......but what do I know, I'm just goin by my eye test which isn't very refined!Hawkeye21 said:
By the way, I should add that IMO part of the late-round QB strategy is taking two of them. If I get a Brees or a Rodgers I feel no need to back them up; I'll just grab a one-week rental during their bye week. But if I'm betting on a Winston emergence, or Cousins to pick up where he left off last season, I damn sure want a fall-back plan. That's why I especially like pairing the upside guys with someone who has a higher floor, like Taylor or Dalton (Taylor because of his running, Dalton because of his longer track record).
Hawkeye21
Footballguy
It all depends on your league's habits. I usually see a lot of leagues draft two QBs but then usually end up dropping one within a few weeks in order to replace a RB or WR. I try to only draft 1 QB and get that extra RB or WR because I know I can pick up a good enough QB when needed. People struggle to find replacement starting RBs and WRs way more than they do QBs.
You mentioned getting Dalton as your second QB. In my draft no one even took him. I was able to get Winston for free and Dalton is just sitting there for me if needed. So much more important to have those extra RBs and WRs this far ahead of the season.
Yeah, I agree that it depends on your league. I tend to play in bigger leagues (14 to 16) so there is no chance a Dalton or Winston doesn't get drafted. That said, last year guys like Taylor, Cousins and Hoyer were all available on the WW well into the season. What I've found is that the "name" mid-tier QBs (Flacco, Ryan) always get drafted, but the guys who emerge later on can be had.
Also, you mentioned a few weeks in. Sometimes that's all it takes. If you take a bet on a guy like Winston and he lives up to his promise right out of the gate, then you can trade/drop your other QB. And if he doesn't, you can drop him. And if it's still ambiguous, well, then you may need to hang on to both and/or start to look at other streaming options.
Don't Noonan
Footballguy
Had a 12 team draft Sunday and I think Winston was the last QB drafted, QB 24 in the 15th round. I don't like Winston but was surprised he lasted that long.Hawkeye21 said:
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Yeah he should be going off the board in the 12th or sooner, QB13-14ish. I think your league might be an aberration.
I'm not really targeting him. Pretty happy with either taking Palmer/Bortles/Manning around the 7th (QB8-10) or Tyrod/Carr in the 11th. I'm in a 4 pt passing TD league.
Buck Bradcanon
Footballguy
Just a quick look at some rankings and crazy whats available late. QB21-QB27 range Mariota, Fitzpatrick, Flacco, Cutler, RG3.. I always used to think take one after every one else has taken their QB (ie in the 12-15 range) but you could just about make QB your last picks at any position after those that take 2 Qbs already have their backup.
Wait at QB then wait some more!
Wait at QB then wait some more!
Buck Bradcanon
Footballguy
(Ignores self and takes Brees in the 4th.)
Brees is absolutely the guy I would consider taking early, just because I believe he delivers the same value as Rodgers and Cam but can be had a round or two later. That said, I wouldn't go any earlier than the 4th on him (and even there, I don't always love how my teams turn out in mocks when I take him).
I did that last year. Had every intention of waiting. Then Brees was staring at me in the 4th RD and I couldn't pass him up. And he did very well for me. He was awesome last year from week 5 on. A true set it and forget it qb. And that week vs the NYG...my goodness. Fantasy gold!
But this year my plan is to wait. And I intend to stick to that plan unless there is some crazy reason not to. Like, it's the 6th-7th round and cam is there.
ffinmyblood
Footballguy
No idea why most leagues don't use 6 pts for passing TD's anymore. Talk about devaluing the most important position on the field, and the player that has his hands on the ball more than any other.
need2know
Footballguy
Here, have your first like. ?
4-pt pass TDs are a holdover from the days before flex positions and PPR scoring, when 1-2-2-1-1-1 lineups were the norm. It wasn't uncommon in the early 2000s for your QB to account for more TDs than the rest of your lineup combined, and "full credit" for passing TDs made the QB position way too important in fantasy.
Shoe's on the other foot now of course, and I'd argue that every league should either be using 6 pts for all TDs or go to 2QB / superflex formats.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Same thing with the PPR format. A holdover from the days when the LT would score twice as many points as the #1 WR or Chester Taylor could be RB15 and outscore all but 3 WRs. Now PPR gives the WRs a huge advantage. 2 QB/Superflex is the best way to go. 6 pt passing TD doesn't impact the QB position.
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mphtrilogy
Footballguy
From an ADP perspective I like these guys who are going ADP 20QB+
Mariotta (20) , Fitz (22) , Tannehill (21) , and Flacco (26)
Mariotta (20) , Fitz (22) , Tannehill (21) , and Flacco (26)
Chaka
Footballguy
I have been using the MFL ADP data as a baseline for most of my posts relating to these types of questions. The parameters for my MFL data search are: Aug 15th or later, 12 team, non-ppr, real drafts where at least 10% of the players were selected in every draft.
According to that data I really like the following QBs:
Andy Dalton QB16 (three missed games in five seasons)
Matthew Stafford QB18 (missed 19 games his first two seasons and hasn't missed another one in the last five seasons)
Ryan Fitzpatrick QB21 (not sure about games missed with injury because he has been on-again/off-again as a starter regardless of injury throughout his career. But I don't think he has been injury prone at all)
RGIII QB25 (his health definitely concerns me but he has great upside with that receiving corps and Hue generally gets a lot of value out of his QBs)
Joe Flacco QB29
(last year's injury was a complete fluke. He started 122 consecutive games to begin his career and I see no reason why he won't go back to that kind of stability).
According to that data I really like the following QBs:
Andy Dalton QB16 (three missed games in five seasons)
Matthew Stafford QB18 (missed 19 games his first two seasons and hasn't missed another one in the last five seasons)
Ryan Fitzpatrick QB21 (not sure about games missed with injury because he has been on-again/off-again as a starter regardless of injury throughout his career. But I don't think he has been injury prone at all)
RGIII QB25 (his health definitely concerns me but he has great upside with that receiving corps and Hue generally gets a lot of value out of his QBs)
Joe Flacco QB29
(last year's injury was a complete fluke. He started 122 consecutive games to begin his career and I see no reason why he won't go back to that kind of stability).![[icon]](/data/avatars/m/5/5167.jpg?1660313464){kind=avatar}
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Insoxicated
Are you implying that Newton and Stafford have a similar skillset and are at similar points in their career trajectory?
Buck Bradcanon
Footballguy
I have been using the MFL ADP data as a baseline for most of my posts relating to these types of questions. The parameters for my MFL data search are: Aug 15th or later, 12 team, non-ppr, real drafts where at least 10% of the players were selected in every draft.
According to that data I really like the following QBs:
Andy Dalton QB16 (three missed games in five seasons)
Matthew Stafford QB18 (missed 19 games his first two seasons and hasn't missed another one in the last five seasons)
Ryan Fitzpatrick QB21 (not sure about games missed with injury because he has been on-again/off-again as a starter regardless of injury throughout his career. But I don't think he has been injury prone at all)
RGIII QB25 (his health definitely concerns me but he has great upside with that receiving corps and Hue generally gets a lot of value out of his QBs)
Joe Flacco QB29
I like all of these Chaka.
A bet on Dalton is a bet on Eifert's health IMO. If he comes back in the first month without incident, all systems go for Dalton.
Stafford..QB18? smh. he was a monster once Jim Bob Cooter took over last year and they want to push the pace with more up tempo and no huddle. Who is going to run the ball for them? Pass, pass, pass for Stafford all day. Love him this year.
Fitz has 2 top 20 WRs and 2 great pass catching RBs.
RG3 intrigues the heck out of me at that price with your last pick of the draft.
Flacco..2nd year with Trestman, add Wallace, Watson, and hopefully Perriman to the mix? Arrow up.
massraider
Footballguy
Tyrod gonna be my backup in every league.
I am SERIOUSLY set to draft my first qb round 10 or later.... And here is the kicker....does it really matter all that much who it is? ...... Why do I say that: We all (everybody who is paying attention anyway) know that the QB position is even deeper than it has ever been. What does that mean? It means good (fantasy) quarterbacks are a dime a dozen. So are these dime a dozen QBs all the sudden going to have outstanding value once the year starts? I really dont see that happening supply and demand being what it is. Not unless there are injury issues of epic proportion. What I mean by does it really matter who it is is that given the current value of the QB pool is such that there will be so many great choices on the waiver wire weekly that you could easily do very very well just picking up QB's off the waiver wire each week and do very very well. Dont have the stomach for that? Fine...Supply and demand is STILL what it is....trade for one. Sure there will be people that try to hold you randsome but those people who overvalue what they THINK they have, will play hell moving them for anything like the value they think they have. I saw it starting a few years ago..... its gotten more and more obvious. Does it really matter what QB you draft? Not nearly as much in the past.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Staff had a crazy season split. First was on pace for 4100 yards 26 TDs and 22 Ints. Last 8 was on pace for 4300 yards, 38 TDs and 4 Ints. He actually threw the ball slightly less in the L8, but his completion % and YPA increased. I am sure Jim Bob Cooter played a role in this, but his schedule very imbalanced. He had a brutal first 8 games and a cake last 8 games. First 8 featured Denver, Minny twice, Arizona, KC and Seattle. Last 8 featured Oakland, Philly, NO, SF. That may have played a role in the crazily skewed stats. The good news is Stafford projects to having one of the easiest QB schedules in the league this year.
Most people don't realize he played the worst pass D's in the NFL last year. He was gifted with a fantastic schedule. A schedule to what Peyton Manning had when he put up 55 TD passes a few years back. Virtually all of them (other than Carolina twice) were ranked 22 or worse, including the worst ones in PHI and NO. He sucked against the good D's. This year he plays a much tougher pass D schedule.
I'll go with Eli & Cousins.
I think CIN runs the ball more than before.
Chaka
Footballguy
I say it every year but this is precisely what is wrong with traditional start one QB leagues. The most important player in real football is the least valuable player in fantasy football. That's just silly.
Super-flex or 2-QB leagues are the best way to correct that glaring issue.
Hawkeye21
Footballguy
Why does the importance of the position on a real football team have anything to do with how they are drafted in fantasy football? So, you're saying that because QBs are devalued because they are so similar in point scoring and they get drafted later that it's silly because it doesn't fairly represent their importance in real football. I'm assuming you're the type of person that wants fantasy football to replicate real football more. If that's the case then going to a 2 QB league couldn't be further from realistic football.
Why does the draft position of QBs have to be considered an issue? It seems to me that you just enjoy QBs being more important in drafts in which case a 2QB league fits better for you. Or you could adjust the scoring in a way that would separate the better QBs from the not so good QBs. That would be a little more realistic.
Chaka
Footballguy
Why would the player who touches the ball on every play, who leads the offense, who gets the credit for wins and blame for losses be important to fantasy teams?
No reason I guess. Having them on par kickers makes sense.
Hawkeye21
Footballguy
But fantasy football has never been about what positions are most important to their teams in real football. Fantasy football is all about statistics. When drafting it's all about value and who is going to help you win your games. We all know that the QB is the most important position in real football but we're not playing real football. I don't understand why you feel it needs to be more important in fantasy.
If it had to be more like real football then QBs would all go in the first few rounds and RBs would go in the mid to late rounds.
Chaka
Footballguy
I understand, and I think you are a little mistaken about my position vis a vis fantasy football reflecting real football. Clearly I am not looking to emulate real football, endorsing 2QB/super-flex is a pretty big indicator of that. The fact that QBs are entirely devalued in most fantasy leagues is what I take exception to not that fantasy doesn't completely emulate real football. In fact I think the reason QBs became so devalued is because originally fantasy football tried too hard to emulate real football. I think the major resistance to 2QB/super-flex formats is specifically because it is such a large departure from real football. That is the most common argument against that format.
My point is that fantasy is not real football but the relative importance of the players to real teams should probably be reflected at least little more in the fantasy game. That is not an unprecedented position either, look at the shift over the past few seasons from RB dominated to WR dominated but, for some odd reason, the majority of leagues don't also bump QBs up along with the WRs that depend upon them for their success.
Right now, in the vast majority of leagues QBs have similar value to kickers. Don't like the one you have? No worries, you can grab another one off the waiver wire no problem. Does that really seem okay to you? I think it's completely silly.
Weebs210
Footballguy
Targeting in this order
Stafford(top 3 easiest schedule along with cooter)
Dalton
Winston
RG3 if everyone grabs a backup before I grab my starter
I'm looking around round 12 to grab my qb in a 12 teamer. All the rb and wrs i like are gone by that time.
Stafford(top 3 easiest schedule along with cooter)
Dalton
Winston
RG3 if everyone grabs a backup before I grab my starter
I'm looking around round 12 to grab my qb in a 12 teamer. All the rb and wrs i like are gone by that time.
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Hawkeye21
Footballguy
The devaluation has nothing to do with fantasy football and all has to do with the NFL. The rules have changed the game into a pass happy league. Even average QBs on bad teams can put up QB1 numbers. I believe last year there were 40 QBs that put up QB1 numbers in a week, that's ridiculous. That's just what the NFL has turned the position into in fantasy football. It's similar to how they treat RBs and how that's been reflected in fantasy.Chaka said:
It doesn't bother me how things are now but if it bothers some I see no problems with 2 QB leagues. People can always get creative with QB scoring in order to separate the elite QBs from the average ones. Maybe a bigger deduction for INTs. Maybe points for wins, similar to pitchers in baseball. How about a way to give points for QB rating? These are just some ideas of the top of my head and they obviously are flawed but it's a start.
The entire premise of VBD is to separate the elite options (at any position) from the big middle of the pack. If the big middle of the pack starts putting up video-game numbers, the easiest way to correct for it is to lower the VBD baseline (i.e. the "worst starter" at the position). You can certainly use any or all of the ideas you've proposed to do this, but it's a lot easier to just go to a 2QB format as it instantly lowers the baseline in a 10-team league from QB10 to QB20.
(At least, that's the explanation I gave my friends when I set up our neighborhood league as a 2QB format. In reality, deeper starting lineups and rosters, no matter the position(s), reduce the impact of variance and favors the more prepared owners. So, I explained, to "counteract" the importance of QB in a 2QB, we should also add a RB, a WR, and a couple of flex spots. And, BTW, kickers are kinda random, too, so let's roll with two of them as well. That's how I got everyone to buy into a league with 14-man starting lineups and 23-man rosters. YMMV, of course).
My favorite of my 3 leagues is my superflex league...I like the unpredictable drafting/position runs.
In my 2 standard leagues unless there is a QB you really want, I agree with everyone saying to wait & grab guys like:
Rivers ,Eli, , Cousins, Carr, Dalton, Stafford, Romo, Matty Ice, Tyrod, Winston, Cutler, and Flacco
IT IS A DEEP POSITION!!
In my 2 standard leagues unless there is a QB you really want, I agree with everyone saying to wait & grab guys like:
Rivers ,Eli, , Cousins, Carr, Dalton, Stafford, Romo, Matty Ice, Tyrod, Winston, Cutler, and Flacco
IT IS A DEEP POSITION!!
zamboni
Footballguy
Just to add, that whole exotic smash mouth thing works if the Titans are controlling games and aren't forced to throw the ball much.
Maybe the team hits its stride and improves markedly where it can consistently run the ball, but I wouldn't bet on that.
ffinmyblood
Footballguy
I get why waiting on a QB might be a viable strategy in today's Fantasy football and what is considered "basic scoring". But if more leagues used 6 pts for ALL Td's and didn't award the insane 1/10 rush/receiving...and only awarded rushing receiving bonuses at 100yds and incremented from there...you'd rue the day you didn't have a Rodgers or Brees. That's how all fantasy leagues should be now days again. 35-40 points won you most weeks. Ah...the good old days.
