Dustin Keller and John Carlson- undervalued? (1 Viewer)

[baconisgood]

To put this point simply Keller had 93 combined receptions and Carlson 106 in their first 2 years in the league. Since the merger there have been 19 other instances of TEs catching at least 90 balls their first 2 years in the league and only 4- Joe Senser, Ozzie Newsome (shocking), Greg Olsen and Pete Mitchel- failed to reach 650 receiving yards in their 3rd season in the league- and the average of all TEs who had >= 90 receptions in their first 2 years was 754 receiving yards in year 3. Using the pre subscription projections (to not get in trouble ) of Wood, Tremblay, Dodds and Henry none of the 8 projections has either of those TEs breaking 650 receiving yards (the high projection is 640 for Carlson).

These two are also being drafted as TE 14 and 15 Between Olsen and Shockey. This seems like a lack of respect for two guys who were solid in their production their first 2 years in the league who play a position that often takes 3-4 years to really master.

Why- especially a guy like Carlson- are these two guys so low?

 

[Stinkin Ref]

if I don't get a top guy, I will get Carlson this year.....I like his game and I think they work him into the playbook....he can make plays.....Burleson is gone and they have a rookie in Tate and not much else after TJ...(although I like Butler)....so Carlson could get more looks......

 

[The Real Hipster Doofus]

I like Keller a lot in dynasty, not so much in redraft. I think he continues to see an increase in production. His playoff run tells me he will continue to be integrated more and more into the passing game. That being said, the Jets passing game has a limited upside at this point so it may take a while for him to be a reliable fantasy TE.

 

[SSOG]

You've actually just hit on a topic near and dear to my heart. I agree that both Carlson and Keller are underrated, because people don't appreciate that their seemingly "mediocre" production to date has actually been stellar when put into the proper context (i.e. when you remember that it was their first two seasons in the league).

Keller's going to be in a pretty tough short-term situation, competing for targets with three NFL-caliber receivers (Braylon, Santonio, and Jerricho) on a team whose propensity is towards the run. With that said, I think he's more talented than Jerricho Cotchery, and more reliable than Braylon Edwards. I would not be surprised if he wound up being the #2 option in New York by the time all was said and done. I wouldn't bank on it this year, but looking 2 or 3 years down the road, I think he's a great dynasty buy low.

As for Carlson, I have no idea why he's so low right now. It seems that rumors of Hasselbeck's demise have been greatly exaggerated, which means the Seahawks have an NFL-caliber signal caller under center, and they led the league in passing attempts last season (so you know they can air it out if necessary). Their receiving corps is a mess, their defense is a bit of a mess- two elements that seem like strong positives for Carlson. I understand that a large part of the reason for his "decline" last season ("decline" is in quotes because he actually scored 6 more points as a sophomore than he did as a rookie) was that he was being kept in to block, but with Seattle's best receiver (Nate Burleson) now in Detroit, I think they're going to have to send Carlson out in patterns more frequently. I certainly think he's as talented as, say, a Brent Celek (if not more so). I don't see any top 4 finishes for Carlson in the next year or two, but I do see a pair of very solid fantasy starter seasons.

 

[PhantomJB]

While not disagreeing Carlson and Keller have talent, I guess I'm just not seeing a compelling case why they should be higher than they are. The seven TE's ahead of them in ADP include H. Miller, Z. Miller, Shiancoe, Cooley, Winslow, O. Daniels and Tony G.

I'm probably drafting Carlson ahead of Cooley given injury concerns and the F. Davis threat, and still need training camp to see Daniels come back 100%. The other guys are proven commodities.

 

[Insein]

Carlson had alot of his points come from the first game of the year. After that he didn't do much. I ended up dropping him and grabbing Vernon Davis (luckily) last year around the 4th or 5th week.

 

[baconisgood]

While not disagreeing Carlson and Keller have talent, I guess I'm just not seeing a compelling case why they should be higher than they are. The seven TE's ahead of them in ADP include H. Miller, Z. Miller, Shiancoe, Cooley, Winslow, O. Daniels and Tony G.

I would definitely take Carlson over H. Miller, Olsen, Cooley and Daniels. I am leaning strongly to takin ghim over Shiancoe (def take him ahead in PPR leagues)

 

[massraider]

While not disagreeing Carlson and Keller have talent, I guess I'm just not seeing a compelling case why they should be higher than they are. The seven TE's ahead of them in ADP include H. Miller, Z. Miller, Shiancoe, Cooley, Winslow, O. Daniels and Tony G.

I would definitely take Carlson over H. Miller, Olsen, Cooley and Daniels. I am leaning strongly to takin ghim over Shiancoe (def take him ahead in PPR leagues)

Exactly, word-for-word, what I came in to post.

 

[imagroid]

I sure got tired of 1 & 2 catch games from Carlson last year. A couple 20+ games and a bunch of meh. He may have won you a couple games, but he probably cost you some too. He avg 5.5 ppg in ppr for a 10 game stretch. Ooooof

Keller, love the talent, hate the situation.

 

[baconisgood]

I sure got tired of 1 & 2 catch games from Carlson last year. A couple 20+ games and a bunch of meh. He may have won you a couple games, but he probably cost you some too. He avg 5.5 ppg in ppr for a 10 game stretch. Ooooof

A. He was a 2nd year TE.2. His QB was banged up last yearD. The Oline needed (and got) some help.

 

[imagroid]

They also brought in a pass catching RB, drafted a WR early and got a whole new coach/scheme. He's fine at his ADP, but I'd rather not have him as my TE1.

 

[Jayrod]

As a Keller dynasty owner, I don't like this year at all. Too many WR's and Sanchez is only in his 2nd year. Give them one more year together and get rid of one of the WR's and we can talk. 2011 looks like the earliest that Keller will be a fantasy starter.

 

[3nOut]

While not disagreeing Carlson and Keller have talent, I guess I'm just not seeing a compelling case why they should be higher than they are. The seven TE's ahead of them in ADP include H. Miller, Z. Miller, Shiancoe, Cooley, Winslow, O. Daniels and Tony G.

I would definitely take Carlson over H. Miller, Olsen, Cooley and Daniels. I am leaning strongly to takin ghim over Shiancoe (def take him ahead in PPR leagues)

Exactly, word-for-word, what I came in to post.

Wow, what are the odds you wanted to post "takin ghim" too.

 

[gianmarco]

I sure got tired of 1 & 2 catch games from Carlson last year. A couple 20+ games and a bunch of meh. He may have won you a couple games, but he probably cost you some too. He avg 5.5 ppg in ppr for a 10 game stretch. OoooofKeller, love the talent, hate the situation.

 

[thriftyrocker]

I love Keller in dynasty and I love him in redraft. All those NFL caliber WRs they have, none of them are world beaters. If Rex says I should draft him, it's worth the cost in ADP: NY Daily News